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Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
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When Jon attended: 4-3 (.571)
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Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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In a surprising turn of events, one that could among other things have a real impact on Andre Ethier's role with the Dodgers, Matt Kemp's power surge over the final week of Spring Training put him on the Dodger Opening Day roster ahead of Larry Bigbie, according to Tony Jackson of the Daily News. (Soon, of course, everyone will have the story, but Jackson has been quick to get things on his blog all spring long.)
This is head-spinning on many levels, especially when combined with the fact that James Loney is starting the season with Las Vegas.
The Dodgers' fourth outfielder was always going to get a little playing time to give Luis Gonzalez a rest in left field, but the choice of Kemp over the left-handed Loney or Larry Bigbie makes me think that Ethier will not get as many starts as he would have expected. One presumes the Dodgers aren't keeping Kemp on the roster just to have him play in the field once a week (no more likely to happen than Hong-Chih Kuo becoming a lefty middle reliever at this point), and that they chose Kemp over Loney because Loney was green in outfield, because Kemp has serious home-run power, or both. It all adds up to Kemp getting a long look in right field in April. The high-ceiling guy getting a chance against the guy who settled in earlier.
Newly acquired outfielder Brady Clark, therefore, ends up mainly as a second-choice right-handed pinch hitter behind Olmedo Saenz. Sure, the Dodgers could be doing straight platooning in the outfield - Clark and Kemp against lefties, Gonzalez and Ethier against righties, but I don't suspect it will be that cut and dry.
The Dodgers are clearly betting at this point that Bigbie, whose opt-out window ends tomorrow night, will choose to stick in the organization, unless they're so committed to Kemp that they finally see Bigbie as superfluous.
The Dodger outfield shapes up like this:
L: Gonzalez, Pierre, Ethier, Anderson
R: Kemp, Clark
Rafael Furcal is starting the season on the disabled list but will be eligible to play Saturday. For the short-term, the Dodgers chose Wilson Valdez over Tony Abreu, surely thinking that it will be much easier for Valdez to clear waivers after the season begins. Ramon Martinez will probably start Opening Day to save Valdez the jitters, and then switch places with Valdez for the second game.
Here's the infield and catchers:
L: Anderson (Yes, I know I'm counting him twice)
S: Betemit
R: Kent, Garciaparra, Martin, Valdez, Saenz, Martinez, Lieberthal
Rudy Seanez made the team in the bullpen - I think he will end up disappointing, given his age, inconstency and tendency to get hurt. But I guess there's no harm in trying him out.
The pitching staff for Opening Week:
Starters: Schmidt, Penny, Lowe, Wolf
Relievers (R): Saito, Broxton, Tomko, Billingsley, Seanez
Relievers (L): Beimel, Hendrickson
So here we are, after weeks of speculation, with Loney hammering the ball and not making the team. There's a lot of different thoughts running through my head, but the one I can't escape is this.
There is currently one spot in the lineup for Ethier, Kemp, Bigbie and Loney to fight over, and fight they will. Ethier will probably start at first, but he's going to have to hit to keep playing. But I actually think Gonzalez has to watch his back, too. The promotion of Kemp makes me think that neither Ned Colletti nor Grady Little think they can keep the big kids down for much longer. I think we're looking at a best-man-win situation in left field as well as right by summertime.
Or, there's a trade looming...
Update: From The Associated Press:
Manager Grady Little acknowledged that Loney didn't take the news of his demotion well.
"This kid had a great spring for us and he played well for us last season," Little said. "In most cases, when you option a guy down to Triple-A, you have some things you want him to work on and get better at. In his case, we're going to be looking for the opportunity to get him back up here."
Update 2: Sunday night, Tony Jackson wrote that "Ned and Grady made it clear that Kemp is going to be on the bench, which is why I'm fairly sure he'll go back to the minors as soon as Furcal comes back."
This is completely perplexing. It's one thing to keep Valdez on the team while Furcal is out - it's another thing entirely to give Rafael Furcal two backups at shortstop when he returns. And if Kemp weren't going to start any games, why keep him as a pinch-hitter when you just acquired Clark. I honestly can't believe this is for real. Given the pace with which news changes with the Dodgers, I'm going to try to have faith that it isn't.
Reasons for Kemp to make the team instead of Loney:
Power, and the team desperately needs power. Does this mean we can expect to LaRoche sooner rather than later?
Less upside with our veteran outfielders. Nomar, when healthy, can carry the team. I think we'll see Loney up when Nomar starts to wear down later in the year.
Kemp has greater upside than all three of our current starting outfielders. He's righthanded, so he could platoon with any of them. Ethier's slumping again, so we might see Kemp in right quite a bit (which will bum me out because I love Ethier). I won't rehash all the reasons for playing Kemp over Gonzo or Pierre, since you all know them already.
Wow. We at least get one kid. The bench isn't entirely full of washed up veterans.
Are we going to be seeing a lot of Kemp and Clark as late-inning defensive replacements in left and center?
I will say this about LaRoche, I know he's got all the upside in the world, but I didn't see all that much out of LaRoche this spring. I know, it's only spring, but are we totally sure he's recovered from surgery yet? I mean, his swing just looked like he could only hit one type of pitch in a certain location, and it seemed like whenever he was up, he just hit ground balls. I don't know, is it just me, or could LaRoche use at least another month or two in the minors?
At any rate, I hope Loney doesn't hang his head too much - I'm quite sure he'll be up before too long. Not that I'm rooting for Nomar to get hurt, of course (but it wouldn't surprise anyone), but there could be a trade, and there could be an injury to someone, and he'll be the first called. Hope he can remain a little patient. Still, I would've thought he over Kemp. Glad it's Kemp over Bigbie, though.
As for LaRoche - he can use a lot more than another month in the minors. He's probably a late starting player, never does well in ST, will heat up as the minor league season rolls. But he looks to be a year away from helping at all.
Pierre is straight left Jon. You probably knew that and it was just a slip of the mind :)
Will mlb box scores will continue to confuse Saenz and Seanez?
Whither Valdez once Furcal comes off DL (and will anyone care)?
Will Bigbie accept minor league assignment or get released? (I assume they won't be trading him to anyone)
I wondered for a second if Kemp making the team over Loney was an April Fool's joke.
How long will it be before Meloan arrives in the D's bullpen (replacing Saenz, I mean Seanez)?
Why am I still here?
Night, and talk to you all on Monday.
I'm an April Fool, I guess.
no apologies needed. even the best sometimes have brain cramps.
Too bad free agents can't be traded until, what, the end of June?
Please oh please don't trade Ethier ... (No, that's not a rational plea, and I don't pretend that it is)
One wonders if Gonzo has shown them less power than they expected (like that should be a surprise???). One wonders if Ethier's recent slump has them truly worried. One wonders how much playing time Kemp is going to get. One wonders if Ethier is just a two week slump away from becoming the fourth outfielder.
I sort of like the idea of keeping Kemp, as long as he's going to play about 40% of the time or more. He should start every game against lefties, since he can spell LuGo, Ethier, or Pierre. Hopefully he starts the odd game against righties too although I have my doubts about that.
The Dodgers managed the nifty trick of leaving their three best hitters in spring training (Loney, Bigbie, Abreu) off the team, which is kind of weird. Loney and Bigbie did everything that could have been asked of them. It's got to be discouraging to know that even going into camp, you never had a chance no matter how well you played.
This may be the only team I've ever seen that has five positions at which an injury to the starter actually might improve the lineup. (1B, 3B, LF, CF, RF)
The problem I have with that is with Nomar blocking him I'm having a hard time imagining a trade that would get Loney on the team. Unless maybe it involved Betemit. I don't really see Loney in the outfield. He belongs at first base. But how in the world is he going to get there?
I'm trying to salve some wounds here.
Now I'm concerned that Kemp is gonna ride the bench, and just get used as a last-hope, late-inning, right-handed PH when we're trailing by 2 or more runs.
Maybe Ned/Grady just want to lite a fire to let Ethier & Gonzo know that their jobs aren't safe.
Why would he? Who would? What else does a kid have to do to earn a spot? Why am I asking so many questions?
James Loney should just hope that he escapes this madhouse.
I felt all along that Kemp will learn more fighting through slumps at the MLb level, rather than at the AAA level.
Also good that Colletti recognized the team has no power, and that Kemp is a must have on the 25 man roster.
Loney's just going to have wait for someone to get hurt. His situation would be alot easier to handle if the team would have just cut Marlon Anderson/Brady Clark.
I would love to see Kemp as a corner outfielder in the Dodger's future (or even Center), but where is he going to play now (for Gonzo or Pierre I don't think so). Sadly I agree with Jon, that they must be looking at replacing Eithier.
I don't blame Loney at all for being distraught. You can't hit any better than the guy did over the last 11 months. I expect him to be on the team before June in any case though. Kemp needs more seasoning in Vegas (1/2 year).
I'm a bit confused by this Matt Kemp business since I just plain don't see him getting many opportunities to play. Pierre will obviously play ever day, but Ethier and LuGo might get one day a week off, leaving Kemp with maybe 2 games a week starting. Although I love his power off the bench, I think it would be for his own good to spend some more time in AAA.
As for Loney, I truly love the guy and agree that he has nothing left to prove, but is he really the savior we all peg him to be? As of now his ceiling seems to be a .300 hitter with 15 HR power which is dangerously close to Hatteberg range. As much as I hate that he's being passed over in favor of a guy that's less major league-ready, it still seems like the correct move for the team to put a guy with more power in the mix.
I agree with all the above - Loney deserves to be on the team, and Kemp can probably use some more seasoning.
If Kemp was going to make the team anyway, then why did they sign Gonzo and Pierre? Yeah, yeah, I'm preaching to the choir here. I suppose they weren't sure that Kemp was ready, and they didn't know what was going on with Ethier at the end of last year (not to mention the last two weeks), so they wanted some insurance.
Yeah, not gonna happen.
I do think Kemp can spell him, even more often than Ethier (who hits LHP very well).
I see Loney's ceiling as more like .320-.330 than .300, with a bunch of doubles and a few HRs, and more walks than in AAA. He's a very good hitter.
http://www.google.com/tisp/
When Youngsters like Loney get upset over playing time, it shows their immaturity and lack of character.
I wish Bigbie luck, he had no place on this team but I think his spring should give him a job somewhere. Hard to beleive that a team like Florida couldn't use him. A RF combo of Borchard/Ross and a CF of Anza isn't going to cut it. Hermida very quickly has gotten the injury prone bug.
Loney will be back by May 15th, how the Dodgers make room for him will be the interesting story of the spring. I wouldnt' be very comfortable if I was Ethier even though it should be Gonzo who should be worried. We shall find out soon if this Management is geared to fielding the best possible team or the safest.
Nice April Joke on the word verification. I don't think I could spell his name even with it staring me in the face.
BYKim4Loney
I assume that the Dodgers do not know when Furcal will be able to play. In the short term Valdez will be the shortstop and in the long term Abreu would be the replacement. Valdez or Martinez will be traded or Valdez will be sent down when Furcal returns.
Loney will be brought up when Furcal returns and in the mean time will be taking fly balls in the outfield.
The starters at the outfield corners will be Kemp, Ethier, Loney. April will decide. Gonzo becomes that left side pinch hitter. Anderson is traded.
Ideally Ned/Grady give in and make Nomar a third baseman and put Loney at first beginning May 1. In the mean time Loney gets outfiled eligibility in fantasy leagues.
Billingsley will be starting eventually this season as will Miller, and when that happens I see the relief staff consisting of:
Melaon, Broxton, Saito, Brazabon, Tsao, Biemel, Hendrickson.
Traded: Tomko, Penny, LaRoche.
Who has more power potential at third than Andy LaRoche?
No he isn't. He just gets less opportunity to do bad things as a reliever. Remember when Brett Tomko looked like a future closer those first two weeks out of the pen last year?
After enough innings, he was still Brett Bomko, just like Hendrickson will still be The Giving Tree.
1. For all the opportunities Loney received to make the roster, what might've doomed him to Triple-A was his poor outfield defense.
2. With Loney beginning the year in LV, doesn't this delay the start of his service clock? This could be a move with the expected payoff in the long run, not during the first weeks of 2007.
3. Bigbie, I imagine he's gone. Thanks for the nice March, and good luck to you.
4. Enders made an excellent point about depth. Boy, does this club have it. When late June comes around, not many teams will have more trading chips than the Dodgers, if they want to go in that direction.
5. Two men who need to worry: Andre Ethier and Luis Gonzalez. I don't recall any talk of competition for their starting jobs, but roster moves speak louder than words.
6. FWIW, here's Gonzo vs. RHP last season: 277/360/459/819. It's OK, and in a platoon won't kill you as would his split vs. LHP: 259/332/408/740. But will he accept sitting twice a week?
7. Subtract Tomko and Hendrickson, and I love the bullpen. The rotation, I like - unless Schmidt's lousy spring turns out to be a bad omen.
As far as Loney.....
1. If either of the starting corner infielders OR any of the starting OFs get hurt......Loney can be called up.
2. If either of the starting corner infielders OR any of the starting OFs get traded.......Loney can be called up.
The chances of at least one of these two situations happening is extremely high (especially the chances of Nomar getting hurt). As a result, Loney will get his fair share of ABs this season on the team.
Thinking about it, the OF could be a big, big problem:
1. We know Pierre doesn't walk, but what he doesn't hit singles either?
2. What if Gonzo's age completely wipes him out?
3. What if Ethier was playing over his head last season?
More likely, at least one of the three will not stick, or someone else will get hurt, solving the problem for us.
Frankly, I'd be looking to collect guys who were upset about not making the big-league club.
I don't think that Loney's being upset would affect his trade value. Just shows he knows he should be up here. If he had torn apart the clubhouse that would be a different story but no mention was made of anything like that.
I don't see him going anywhere in a trade because I'm sure they still view him as their 1st baseman of the future, unless of course, the Marlins decide to offer Cabrera for a package including Loney. That might severely tempt Ned.
Yes: Loney. He'll be a cancer in the AAA clubhouse, negatively affecting everyone else's performance.
And LaRoche is on thin ice too. What has he done, you ask? Nothing yet, but you can just tell that he'll do something eventually. Best to nip these things in the bud with pre-emptive strikes.
Penny's bad attitude was entirely due to his low self image, vastly improved now that he's brought his new svelte body to this season.
You'll see. He'll be the model citizen......................until Kemp drops the first fly ball, or Betemit kicks the first grounder. Actually I thought he conducted himself very well last night when the guys behind him were giving their very own rendition of Barnum and Bailey.
Tx
>>> "Remember last year when I was saying we'd be happy going .500 the first three weeks until we settled in?" Little said. "That's not the case this year. We're coming out of spring training to win every game we play. There is no learning curve." <<<
http://tinyurl.com/3asl7v
Makes you think he probably had no chance going in, given that he had a pretty good spring