Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
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12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Well, the story tonight is Jason Schmidt, no matter the final score. Great to see him have such success in his first game back.
But what a shame it was that Russell Martin, after working so hard to get to second base, lost his footing in between second and third just when the Dodgers were poised to take the lead.
The Dodgers have won enough one-run games - including their most recent game against San Diego, in 17 innings - that they were due to give one back.
* * *
In a huge decline from his 2006 season, Nomar Garciaparra is almost on pace to have a historically bad year for a Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, while Juan Pierre is in almost as deep in center field.
OPS+ by Principal Starters at First Base, 1958-2007
1990 Murray 159 1995 Karros 145 1978 Garvey 137 1975 Garvey 133 1976 Garvey 133 1970 Parker 132 1999 Karros 131 1974 Garvey 130 1979 Garvey 130 1959 Hodges 126 1980 Garvey 126 1969 Parker 125 1962 Fairly 124 1998 Karros 123 1977 Garvey 121 2006 Garciaparra 120 1963 Fairly 119 1985 Brock 117 1964 Fairly 114 1989 Murray 114 1996 Karros 114 1960 Larker 113 1966 Parker 113 2004 Green 113 1981 Garvey 111 1997 Karros 111 1967 Parker 110 2005 Choi 110 1972 Parker 108 1992 Karros 107 1971 Parker 106 1983 Brock 106 1986 Brock 106 1991 Murray 105 1984 Brock 103 1982 Garvey 101 2000 Karros 101 1965 Parker 100 2003 McGriff 100 1958 Hodges 98 2002 Karros 97 1968 Parker 96 1994 Karros 96 1988 Stubbs 92 1993 Karros 88 1987 Stubbs 87 2001 Karros 85 1973 Buckner 83 2007 Garciaparra 79 1961 Hodges 75
I used EQA for the centerfielders because it incorporates stolen bases:
EQA by Principal Starters in Center Field, 1958-2007
1974 Wynn .317 1992 Butler .311 1994 Butler .310 1975 Wynn .309 1969 Davis .302 1958 Snider .299 1990 Javier .298 1991 Butler .291 2005 Bradley .290 1962 Davis .290 1964 Davis .288 1972 Davis .287 1971 Davis .286 1982 Landreaux .285 1983 Landreaux .285 1993 Butler .284 1970 Davis .282 1995 Butler .281 1997 Cedeno .281 1973 Davis .279 1987 Shelby .279 1988 Shelby .279 2006 Lofton .278 1998 Mondesi .277 2002 Roberts .276 2004 Bradley .273 1966 Davis .271 1960 Demeter .271 1968 Davis .270 1985 Landreaux .270 1986 Williams .270 1967 Davis .267 1978 North .267 1961 Davis .263 1963 Davis .261 1999 White .261 1979 Thomas .259 1981 Landreaux .256 1977 Monday .254 1984 Landreaux .250 1959 Demeter .249 1996 Cedeno .247 1965 Davis .245 1980 Law .245 2003 Roberts .245 2000 Hollandsworth .241 2007 Pierre .240 1976 Baker .230 2001 Grissom .225 1989 Shelby .185
Update: James Loney is heating up at the plate - 16 for his last 46 (.348) - with three doubles (.413 slugging) but still no homers and only one walk.
In the recent three-game series at Memphis, Loney went 8 for 14 with two doubles (.571/.571/.714).
In the same period, Matt Kemp is 22 for 48 (.458/.469/.689) with six doubles, a triple, a homer, one walk, four strikeouts, and three steals in four attempts. For the season, Kemps OPS is .931
schmidt, penny, lowe, wolf, kuo/billingsley
we are are two acts of God(maybe 3) on the offensive side of things to having our best team possible on the field. When was the last time the dodgers actually played their best players?
Keep hope alive.
vr, Xei
mine's mostly due to the fact that were are likely looking at a 2 1/2 game hole . . its a must win tommorrow w/ Peavy on Thurs.
could Nomar's new two year deal be any worse right now , he's blocking cheap young talent with one of the worst seasons at first base in LA's history. ..I wont mention the other guy
i've been where you are now. Although they all count the same the last few seasons have cured me of calling a june game a must win. it is ok to scream but make sure you enjoy the ride (no idea what I mean there but I keeping it)
if anybody is confused by my acts of god reference I am thinking Flood(Nomar) and Locusts(Juan) to start.
It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times?
"Nomar Garciaparra: Better than Gil Hodges!"
Nomar's just a broken down 33 year old with no pop. He had a great career. But kid...It's over.
It seems obvious to me that a pinch hitter should have replaced Pierre in the 8th, but it doesn't seem that was ever considered. My impression is that he very rarely gets a hit in a situation like that late in the game, but I don't know how to go about quantifying that.
On the other hand, I guess many would say there's just as great a possibility of him getting a hit in that situation as any other, he's just not a good hitter any time.
What would/should a manager look at in a situation like that?
I can't type what we call our CF.
Is it worse than what you call Karl Dorrell?
And gotten whacked.
does it discriminate against other small headed peoples'?
Tough loss today, but it's June, and Schmidt looked great.
WWSH
I've been rereading a lot of counterfactual history lately. It would be really fun to do a bunch of "what ifs" on the Dodgers. Especially the 90's. There was pretty good stability in the '70's and 80's, but the 90's was crazy, what with Fox and the contracts and the Piazza trade and all that stuff.
What if ... Peter O'Malley hadn't been called off his NFL venture by the same mayor that had gotten him started on it?
The first saves us from Fred Claire, basically a family retainer, being moved into the GM spot, which he handled feebly.
The second saves us from Fox, and also brings the NFL's last expansion team here instead of Houston.
Without Claire, maybe we have better drafts, Lasorda retired sooner, no Darryl Strawberry and no Pedro trade. And maybe we sign Barry Bonds.
Without Fox, no Piazza trade and all that followed from that.
Yep, the Dodgers are a good validation for counterfactual history as an analytical tool. And really, the period affected by all this is more like 15 years, '89-'04.
I'm optimistic in the sense that the pieces are here for us to be better. It's just a question of Colletti admitting his mistakes and putting in the kids. Either that or Nomar hits the DL and gets Pipped out of the lineup.
I just really hope that this off season was Colletti's last where he goes with veterans over youth every chance he gets. I remember on Scout when I was told the kids are no guarantee and Colletti is a genius for providing us with tremendous depth. Veterans are no guarantee either. I was told many times that Loney, Kemp, and Billingsley might not be ready. Well Nomar stinks, Pierre stinks, Tomdrickson stinks, but at least with the kids if they stunk it would only cost $1 million (approx) to find out instead of $25 million or so.
To be fair, without Claire, we also have no fist-pumping Kirk Gibson rounding the bases and, in all probability, no 1988 World Championship.
>>> For all the flak Juan Pierre has received for his relatively low on-base percentage for a top-of-the-order hitter, there have been few better clutch hitters.
Pierre was hitting a major league-best .462 this season before Tuesday in late-inning pressure situations — being in the seventh inning or later with the batting team ahead by a run, tied or having the tying run on base, at bat or on deck. <<<
http://tinyurl.com/yrxwou
2. Perhaps even more alarming, the Rosebush's OBP is .333
That's crazy!
But the slump last year was related to injury. And there's precedent for guys being bad for a year, and then returning to their career norms--look at Mike Lowell, for example. Nomar seems to be healthy; he isn't that old (and his age was already factored into the PECOTA projection); I find it hard to believe that this is his new performance level.
Re: 33
Never did see the whole movie--only the last 20-30 minutes, so I wasn't sure what was going on. =) The little kid seemed astonishingly "adult," though.
WWSH
It just occurred to me--another player who's an example of how streaky baseball can be is Beltre, of course, who had an MVP caliber season-and-a-half before drastically regressing to his career norm.
WWSH
To those of you who know more about this than I do feel free to correct my simplistic overview and add a comment about whether this formula gives adequate weight to a team with an outstanding bullpen that can perserve 1-run leads.
Even for GLUE?
Yes, I've fallen off the no-nickname wagon.
Surely, he's been beaten enough to be Glue? Gradly Little's Unending Eidolon.
Eric Hull (RHP, LAD)
Signed as an undrafted free agent in '00, the 27 year-old has been recalled to the Majors for the first time. Hull has been used mostly as a reliever the past two seasons, but has started games prior to that. He has a career 3.47 ERA, 3.6 Ctl and 8.4 Dom. He's short -'5'11" - and doesn't have great velocity with his fastball (sits in the high 80s), but he's proven to be durable. Hull offers a sinker, slider and changeup. He keeps the ball down effectively and limits HR, even in the comfortable confines of his home park in Las Vegas. He keeps hitters off-guard by changing speeds. Despite his high Dom, he doesn't have a knockout pitch. In addition, his command can be spotty and he'll put runners on base with walks. Hull's upside is that of a middle reliever.
STATS: Las Vegas (AAA) - 20 g, 2-2 3.62 ERA, 27.1 IP, 1.8 Cmd, 4.9 Ctl, 8.9 Dom, 1 HR, .235 oppBA
CURRENT ROLE: Long reliever
POTENTIAL: Middle reliever
RATING: 5C
What's below "Middle Reliever" on the upside chart...?
That might call for change and protecting the status-quo because it has put the Dodgers in first place would no longer be true.
This is a longshot, one that agent Scott Boras wouldn't endorse for his client, but if the Angels and Yankees could work out a trade and Rodriguez agreed not to opt out of his contract, which calls for $81 million over the next three years, the deal would actually be a lot more palatable to the Angels, because the Texas Rangers — division rivals, no less — are obligated to pay about $9 million a year of Rodriguez's contract for the next three years.
A Padres sweep is about as good of an idea as letting M.Knight Shamalamadingdong make another movie...............it's never a good thing.
Yes, I've seen plenty of long slumps in my life and just about when everyone jumps on the "he is done bandwagon" things turn around. Sometimes they are done but I don't think it is Nomar's time yet. However as D4P has stated, diet changes everything so in todays world we don't really know how reliable the historical information is.
Not saying I wouldn't want Loney playing 1st right now just not convinced that Nomar's day as an 800 OPS hitter are over. His glove blows this year to. I'd be very happy if they moved his salary to the Yankee's and promoted Loney but that is about as likely as Kemp playing CF this year.
The Yankee's would have to give up the pursuit of the Wild Card before they would trade Arod to a team they would face in the 1st round of the playoffs. The Angels would be the best team in baseball with Arod. Not much of a stretch since they are close to being the best team without him.
If Arod would agree not to opt out then the Dodgers should be making some serious inquiries. Hold back Kemp, Chad, Kershaw and everyone else should be fair game.
True, the Rangers must be giddy with the idea that they will be off the hook.
Fastball 65
Curveball 60
Slider 55
Changeup 40
Control 50
Delivery 60
Composure 60
Billingsley pitches like a classic power pitcher, establishing his 92-96 MPH four-seam fastball early in the count before working his breaking pitches in. Billingsley works his fastball outside to get ahead in the count. His 81-83 MPH slider has apparently lost a little velocity from when he was in the minor leagues. Billingsley also throws a 79-81 MPH curveball. Both breaking pitches are swing-and-miss offerings. He has a good motion with a high three-quarters delivery that he repeats well. Billingsley's motion is quick, which might help him catch some baserunners but costs him some command. His command is only average at this point, and he gets away with a lot of mistakes because of his raw stuff. Billingsley pitches aggressively and looks totally at home on the mound. He has learned to slow the game down a little when runners get on base, although he could still progress in this area.
Billingsley could come inside more with his fastball. He does have an 89 MPH two-seamer, but he doesn't seem to trust it because he throws it infrequently. Billingsley's changeup is still a work in progress, so most of his pitches seem to come in at the same speed. Because he has a quick delivery, his arm sometimes doesn't catch up to the rest of his body, leaving his pitches up in the zone. Like Lincecum, Billingsley will eventually turn into a flyball pitcher.
Billingsley's future is very bright, perhaps more so than Lincecum's.
Problem is, I can't imagine a realistic return, unless they would package him for A-Rod.
As crazy as it sounds the Yankee's would be better off with all of our deadbeats.
Nomar, JP, Tomko, Hendrickson would all be improvements. How sad is that?
And we'd improve just by using our depth. How cool is that?
"That is not to say that Little is a softy. Right-hander Jason Schmidt signed a three-year, $47-million contract with the Dodgers this past winter after six seasons with the San Francisco Giants in part because Little was the manager—Schmidt had played for Little while coming up through the Atlanta Braves' farm system. "He tells it like it is, and I think every player, deep down, appreciates that," Schmidt said. "He'll tell you when you've done good things, but he'll also lay it on the line when things are bad. Maybe you don't want to hear the bad, and you'll go in the corner and cry about it for a day, but you also realize and appreciate that you're being dealt with honestly. And the record shows he's a winner."
No wonder I kept seeing JP in a corner once a week with a hankie.
Then AROD could sit on the bench for the same reason/logic Pierre plays and Kemp stays in Vegas.
In the recent three-game series at Memphis, Loney went 8 for 14 with two doubles (.571/.571/.714).
In the same period, Matt Kemp is 22 for 48 (.458/.469/.689) with six doubles, a triple, a homer, one walk, four strikeouts, and three steals in four attempts. For the season, Kemps OPS is .931
I think the right thing was done in regards to Betemit (I was one that thought he would really help the team this year) but it would be nice to see the same thing applied to Pierre.
http://tinyurl.com/2osa8a
Vegas pitching staff is worse then Memphis and is by far the worse pitching staff in the PCL based on ERA and WHIP but not taking into effect park effects.
Yes it was. If Ned had his way JD would still be playing for the Dodgers. Ned cares about winning and the character crap is just PR unless your talking Dukes where everyone in baseball should just say bye bye and let him start his career in prison. Ned is the same guy who traded for Lugo a bad character guy. If Depo had traded for Lugo the front page article by Bill would have been about how Depo doesn't care about character and how far the Dodgers have fallen that they would trade for a public wife smacker. Instead Ned traded for him and not a mention was made about his history. He's also known as a clubhouse malcontent.
it all evens out & keeps me from going insane.
"Before last night's game, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti and Tony Attanasio, the agent for Ichiro Suzuki, chatted for more than an hour. Suzuki, the Mariners' leadoff man and center fielder, is eligible for free agency in November. The Padres are among the teams that covet him. "
Would a Ichiro for Pierre trade be that crazy? Would it require a crazy package of prospects?
A tear of joy formed at even the hint of that possibility. But it is highly unlikely. Would anyone even want Pierre at this point?
If they get 12 games behind things might change.
If the Dodgers truly wanted to be rid of Pierre at this point, and get something in return it would take eating a big chunk of his salary, and one or two real prospects like Billingsley or Kemp.
As far as Martin falling down….. well there's no way to prove a direct link, but maybe if he didn't catch every game he has his legs under him- the guy looked flat out beat.
Bavasi is exactly the type of GM who would trade for JP while trading A Jones away. Remember this is the team that traded Carlos Guillen away for someone that only 1% of DT posters could name without using the internet because he's no longer in baseball while Carlos is one of the most important players in the AL.
No one on this board, certainly, but GM's never cease to amaze me. You never know, hope springs eternal...
Come on, he was beat because he was running on every pitch. Martin's workload will be a cumulative effect that will ground him in Aug/Sept not a game to game problem. And it is very possible that Grady is right and that he can handle the workload at his age. Hope so because if he staggers during the pennant run his lack of production will be hard to make up.
Has anyone released a player other than Russ Ortiz with years left and millions left?
Dreifort's contract was eaten due to injury, but there are insurance options for that sort of scenario.
I don't think anyone would take Pierre right now in a trade, even if we eat half the contract. We also would not get much in return if we were able to trade him, but I don't think that would be the issue. If we could cancel the contract outright, I think we'd all consider that but would Ned?
What I simply can't comprehend is not giving him a day off, or not dropping him to 8th for at least a day or two. That's on Grady.
And how does he not take a pitch when Young was struggling? He made four outs on seven pitches! Three pop-ups!
I agree, the only way to dump Pierre would be to force a team to take him while still paying most of his salary. That would take a blue chip or two. Like putting Encarnacion into the Penny/LoDuca trade.
While Pierre might have value to some teams, the Dodgers would still have to pickup some of his salary, plus something else if they want anything in return.
Maybe, maybe not, but there is a reason coaches rest (even young) catchers. Sure all the false starts were part of the reason he fell around second, but you cant be sure a more rested player wouldn't hold up better. The idea that Martin is somehow "different" and doesn't need days off is insane.
If Young was struggling we could sure use some struggling pitchers. On JP's last AB Young's pitch count was getting high but generally I thought most of our first 4 hitters were swinging a lot while from Gonzo on down they were taking more.
Young pitched well and he made JP look bad but nobody looked good.
Has anybody seen enought of JP in previous years to comment on his defense now vs then? Is it worse? It seems to me it is. Does he wear contacts? Maybe he has some vision issues. If his depth perception is off just a bit CF could be a nightmare to play and pop ups while batting could result as well. He has never been a great player but he has been a lot better and he is too young to fall off this fast.
"Here's a little thought experiment: If you have a rotation like the Dodgers with two low pitch count guys (Schmidt and Penny), a sinkerballer who says he pitches better on short rest (Derek Lowe), a guy still coming back from Tommy John (Randy Wolf), and a young, injury-prone pair of fifth starters (Hong-Chih Kuo and Chad Billingsley), how do you best put together a rotation? I'm guessing that it doesn't involve a set rotation, but I'll bet that several readers could put together a better model than my guess."
On a positive note, I will echo the pleasure it was to watch Jason pitch again, and the amazing play Rafael made at short (plus his stolen base). As painful as it was to lose this game, I too am shocked that Rudy does not make me cringe any more. I guess that is a victory in itself.
Juan Pierre would have to get really bad to reach "Russ Ortiz in Arizona" bad.
Ortiz had adjusted ERAs of 64 and 63 in his two years in Arizona.
In his San Francisco renaissance, he's all the way up to 76.
I know he's a better player then he's shown but I certainly was hoping he'd tank in Boston. It is no different then hoping a girlfriend who spurned you for an obnoxious rich boyfriend ends up realizing she was better off with the poorer but sensitive guy:)
When did Chad become injury prone? Really bothers me when premium site writers play fast and loose with facts.
While in high school, I had a poster on my wall that makes me laugh and cry when I think about it...the poster title was "Triple Threat", and it featured the Dodger OF of Brett Butler, Eric Davis, and Darryl Strawberry.
Young was indeed struggling/laboring in that last inning he worked. His pitch count was up to about 120 and he had walked Betemit after giving up singles to Martin and Abreu. He was working hard during the Eithier at bat and Betemit might have worn him down even further with his full count walk. He pitched a great game and even swung the bat well twice, but I think he was on the ropes and we could have pushed across a run in the 7th. Martin falling down hurt us, but Pierre's quick swing at the first pitch was difficult to watch. If only Furcal was leading off last night, I would have loved to see him drive the ball and work the count a bit. Ifs...
Ned must have envisoned Pierre being our Brett Butler. He was a gritty and gutsy little guy. I remember in the 92 debacle he had like a hundred infield hits.
Pierre isn't Ned's Butler, he is more like Ned's DeShields.
100 infield hits?
That's quite a bit. Butler had just 171 hits in 1992. And 28 were extra base hits. That leaves 143 singles. So Butler had just 43 singles that went to the outfield?
Ok, I'm back.
Pierre's career-high in EQA is .276 in 2004. He was at .272 in 2003. Otherwise, he has not cracked the .260 mark.
Which would make his glove "Lucille 1"
Re: Pierre, don't want to add much to the harping on the subject, but I do agree he should at least get a rest here and there. He's struggling and I can't see how a day off (okay, bring him in as a pinch runner or whatever so his streak stays alive) can do any harm. I actually think Grady's usually pretty good about stuff like that overall and may even be frustrated with Pierre too, so I dunno why this doesn't seem to be a consideration.
The only season in baseball history that a player (Murray) led the major leagues in batting average yet did not win a batting title.
Murray was very good in 1990. But I think he might be best remembered for hitting into a DP in a big game against the Giants in 1997.
That was the dreaded Mark Johnson Game.
Stupid former Stanford players always mess things up!
The Angels kicked Kevin Appier under the bus in 2003 with another year and a half of his contract remaining, worth something like $12-14M. At the time it was the most expensive DFA in major league history, but it has since been eclipsed by the Ortiz DFA.
http://tinyurl.com/26jlld
Someone asks "Can you find out why the Dodgers don't bring up Mitch Jones from the minor leagues." Answer includes: "Yes, he's having a phenomenal year and, with the Dodgers so lacking for power, it seems like a simple solution: Promote the guy with the most homers in the organization. But there's a big difference between minor league pitching and major league pitching. Plus the Pacific Coast League is a hitters' league, and many professional baseball people take the stats with a grain of salt, considering them inflated. (Although, in Jones' defense, no one can really say for sure how Jones would do unless they give him a chance first.) The Dodgers, perhaps, see something in his swing or his approach at the plate that gives them doubt he'll hit as well in the big leagues."
And "Here's an interesting idea, though: Why not promote Jones for interleague play in Toronto and Tampa Bay later this month?" ....
If there was a glaring hole in leadoff coming into the year I could understand it a little more.
I just can't take the fact that our first 4 hitters have less home runs than Eric Byrnes. I don't think you win that way in 2007. Or 1997. 87? sure.
One year earlier, Murray was an Oriole and was sitting on 499 HR during a trip to Anaheim. I happened to be sitting at the game with my cousin and brother, and we were sitting next to Charlie Hough and his son. My brother struck up a nice conversation with Hough, and the question came up during a Murray at-bat, something along the lines of how many HR does Eddie Murray have against knuckleballers. My cousin said, under his breath, "it depends how many times he faced Charlie Hough." We still laugh about that to this day; I'm not sure Hough heard the snide remark though.
Murray did hit a double during that game and I remember standing and yelling that he attempt an inside-the-park HR. Alas, he did not.
As far as the promotion for interleague play goes... that implies that the Dodgers would use him as a DH. That would make sense to me, sort of, if it were his glove that was keeping him from being promoted, but as far as I can tell, that's not the case. If promoting him is the plan, and he can field his position, why wait?
It seems doubtful that he figured out how to hit all of a sudden.
Even if Jones did walk a ton, would this organization care if he was hitting .220? I doubt it. Right now the Dodgers have two slots on the 40 man roster effectively open (Repko and Hamulack can go on the 60 day DL). One should go to Jonathan Meloan, and we should keep one around in case of emergency, like if Furcal goes down for the year and we need to call Hu up.
It just doesn't make sense to burn a slot on Jones when he probably won't be any better than Olmedo.
I am going from memory only, but I am quite sure it was over 90 infield hits. I remember it was one of the only things that kept me going all year, that and Karros getting his shot. That year we had all our starting pitchers on the DL at the same time. We had the worst record in baseball. And the LA Riots to boot.
I'll try to find out with a search about Butler's infield singles.
He worked a count and would take a walk. He was a slap hitter, but didn't pop-up like you know who.
Today's entry follows up on the pitch count discussion sparked by Bissinger's NY Times article and followed up in SI as discussed in Jon's last pot.
If you scroll down, he's got some fun stuff about Bo Jackson.
http://tinyurl.com/22et4v
Meloan will be interesting to track, because it was mentioned in I believe Ken Gurnick's notes the other day that he might be the next minor league reliever to get a shot if a need arises.
It doesn't get more "Moneyball" than that.
BTW: Has Billy Beane ever signed a Boras client...?
I read the Posnanski book Monday on the flight from MSP to LAX. I will have a review up Wednesday or Thursday.
I will say that it is one of the finest baseball books I've read.
Ever.
And I started reading the book assuming that I would hate it.
I read all 270+ pages from start to finish without stopping.
before or after the player changed representation?
I mean, has Billy Beane ever negotiated with Boras and signed one of his clients?
To be precise, I did put the book down to wash my hands after going to the restroom.
Only to wash your hands, right? Not during the rest of the restroom experience.
I think I've said too much, but the experience was one in which I was seated.
Wonder if there's some way a guy could get his hands on a bank to read without actually buying it or paying for it.
Hmmmm . . .
I'll have to talk to Mr. Franklin about this.
Wow, quite an endorsment. Maybe I can fit it in while waiting for boy Potter to vanquish evil.
July 21 at bookstores and libraries near you.
Or in Sam's case, a bank.
Man I hate blowing the set up.
:(
The Mets have two of the 10 most exciting players in all of baseball and a bunch of guys who are like 58 years old. It's like you have Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and the cast of Cocoon.
Major league record for infield hits in a season is 72 by Brett Butler in 1992.
I was off by almost 30. My bad.
What we all want - bring up Kemp - only makes sense if they decide to sit down Pierre for a week or so and let Kemp have a real chance. Otherwise Kemp is just sitting around on the bench most of the time - not too useful.
I don't know what it will take to get them to do this, maybe a minor injury. Kemp has been knocking down the door for several weeks now, while Pierre keeps popping out. At a certain point, you have to wonder when they'll do it for the good of the team. Of course, what happens if Kemp does really well in his week up here? Probably send him down again anyway, and bring him up again later, before finally swallowing several millions in just using Pierre as a pinch runner until a suitable trade can be found, also swallowing millions, who knows when.
It's understandable that this scenario results instead in procrastination, probably hoping Pierre will pick up production a bit to be able to avoid doing it. But, sooner or later, if Kemp keeps up as he's doing, it's surely going to happen.
Worst come to worst, bring up Kent as 4th outfielder platooning with all 3 OFs, and send down Clark. Can Clark be sent down?
It doesn't seem fair to judge M. Jones on his 2006 stats, which were not good (although he did still hit 21 HRs). His 2004-2005 years his line was approximately: .256/.340/.525/.870, averaging 33 HRs in 492 ABs. At 27/28 years old but in the top-heavy Yankee organization he seemed ready for the Majors before that dissapointing 2006 season.
Just for reference this year he is .303/.402/.697/1.099. I don't think anyone thinks he is capable of this at the MLB level, but it does make you wonder if he could do the .850 OPS thing...
That said, he strikes out a lot, once every 3 at bats. So it does make one nervous. And there is no way he should be promoted over Kemp. Part of me would like to try him at 1B, but barring multiple injuries, that probably doesn't happen. I hope we trade him to some team with a similar power shortage that can give him a chance. Then he can Billy Ashley himself and everyone can stop worrying about the guy who didn't get a chance.
i hate to say it but one thing I hope will happen is Nomar and Pierre pull a hammy in the same game..that would be a miracle...then bring kemp to play CF and Loney to play 1st(Loney would slug better than slap hitter Nomar) wow that would be a great day
If you don't see me anymore just look for me at the Soul of Baseball blog.
I agree that Kemp is knocking at the door and what I expect to happen is the four outfielder rotation. I don't think it will take moving Brady Clark either, I think if we are able to go with 11 pitchers for a stretch, we'll call up Kemp.
We just need to sit down Pierre at times. He is making his case for needing to sit out a game.
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Phil-Hiatt.shtml
189 - i would LOVE to see Pierre become a bench warmer but it's not going to happen. Either is a trade because trading pierre would mean that Colletti is addmiting to a mistake and this might scare off potential free agents ("if you can't play then we'll just trade you away"). Also the fact that Grittle is stubborn doesn't help (look at Julio Lugo from last year)
Moving him down isn't a solution in the long run, but he doesn't get as many at bats. He leads the team in outs and has the lowest OBP of any starter. That screams to be moved from the top two spots in the line-up.
A rest day is called for, and a few games in the 8th slot. It motivated Furcal last spring, didn't it? Grady rests everybody, except Juan. I don't get that. Kent was on fire and he sat him down during the last homestand and he has had two hits since then. Why sit your hottest hitter down but you won't sit down someone who is really struggling? It is illogical.
well class time, hope for an offense explosion tonight! (by that i mean like 3 runs please?)
Kemp is not the answer. A proven bat is.
Earned runs
0 runs-5 times
1 run- 3 times
2 runs- 1 time
3 runs- 2 times (Nats both times)
4 runs- 1 time (Arizona)
Average start was 6 2/3 innings
Oh, wait. Didn't the Dodgers just do that, sorta?
Maybe this internal "trade" will work out. It's off to a pretty decent start.
The water was cold
And in all that blue
I couldn't find gold
ESPN2 is stretching it from 11-3pm!!! I hate you ESPN.
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I love how we didn't sign the current NL rbi leader cause it was 6 years and his defense was shaky. Meanwhile we spend 80 million on Nomar/Gonzo and Pierre and that defense is shaky too. 2 of whom block our young players while the other is 5 years anyways.
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I agree with 200 I want Kemp to play too but we need a legit bat in the middle of our order. Because if Kemp came up and then began hitting like some of our vets he would be sent back down. We need someone our GM can trust..So maybe Rich Aurilla.
It's very easy to sit back and say "we need a proven third baseman (or whatever)" without giving any details.
"He's very ... what's the word. The guy is never 100%, at least saying there's this or that. I don't want to say prima donna, but it's not far off."
Maybe he knows something we don't. I've never heard any of this.
See: Choi, Hee-Seop
Someone could become the next Mel Kiper!
I think I'll send a note to Tony Jackson to see if he has any thoughts about that characterization but as someone (like many here) who have followed Chad's career, I find that curious to say the least.
Keith Law is their baseball Mel Kiper.
after seeing the replay a couple of times yesterday, Martin's legs simply gave out out of exhaustion
Friend,
I'm sorry we missed each other. I hope we can have lunch soon.
Sincerely,
The Point
Ned gets some things right, it is just when he screws up, he screws up badly.
Just because somebody is paid to do something doesn't mean they're good at it.
Anyone who makes a Juan Pierre type deal can immediately be characterized as being terrible at his job.
But your probably right, cooler heads should prevail, I am just really frustrated.
Just don't ask me to blindly trust the guy who made the deal.
i'm in no way a professional on this stuff (obviously) but Billingsley's mechanics look pretty traditional compared to say Jake Peavy i'm not saying Peavy is gonna have an injury this year or next but his arm slot & mechanics scream out arm trouble in the future (IMO). He kind of reminds me of Eckersley.
lol I doubt anyone will ask you to do that here.
Yeah, apparently McGeary was throwing so slowly the Dodgers think they may get him in supplemental round. I am hoping if Porcello actually drops we suck it up and take him and deal with Boras.
Colleti is capable of admitting a mistake and moving on (Baez, Jae Seo). I am hopeful that he sees that in Pierre. The difference is the five year contract.
A proven bat from a trade takes time to work out. Going with 11 pitchers and allowing Kemp to compete with the other three starters in the outfield doesn't take but a phone call.
Kemp must be in the doghouse or something. They thought enough of him for him to make the team out of spring training and he performed before getting hurt. Then he has lit up AAA and he still waits.
Remember this quote from your favorite Radiohead blogger "Kemp will be in the big leagues on the Dodgers roster before we are done with the Mets next week"
We have two off days coming up, June 14 and June 18, then we don't get another one until the all star break.
I think Kemp comes up and we go to 11 pitchers next week or sooner if we have to disable Saito. We can even go with 11 pitchers after the 18th of June since we know that Big Bird, Tomko, and Bills can all go more than an inning or two if we need them to.
Kemp might not be the solution, but we might have that question answered in the next month or so. It makes sense to find out before the trade deadline anyway, doesn't it?
20. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers also have high school arms bunched up at the top of their draft boards, and now that the top names gone, they're said to be pondering the relative merits of a trio that includes Smoker, righty Kyle Blair from Southern California, and Phoenix-area right-hander Tim Alderson. Bumgarner's price tag doesn't scare them off here, however.
Pick: Madison Bumgarner, LHP, South Caldwell HS (North Carolina)
kind of like when Home Depo got Phillips to be our every day catcher
I like Bumgarner, only because of the name. Make it happen, Ned.
I think for San Diego, Arizona and the Dodgers, their one run records are the product of good pitching and inconsistent offense so that they are always in the game and when they have faced teams outside the division against teams that don't have a good bullpen, they can keep a game close and win it at the end.
From what I have seen in the observations about the NL West, it will be a question of what player, whether from their system or a trade will make the biggest impact on the race. San Diego is probably the team least likely to make a big move since they really don't have a lot to trade from their system. Will Arizona do it, doubtful, they decided to go with youngsters and I don't think they want to tie up salary right now. That leaves the Dodgers and though I can't see a boatload of prospects going for a player (one reason is I can't guess who that player might be) I do think if they decide to upgrade they could do it but who would it be and where would he play?
Also, Phil Hiatt only really got 50 at bats to show what he could do (the majority of his major league at bats were before his apparent minor league explosion ). Even then he had an ops of 700 with 2 HR, not good, but better than certain CFs I could mention.
That being said, late-blooming prospects are highly suspect. It is unlikely even if Mitch is given a chance somewhere that he will get much more than 50 at bats to prove his minor league number are not a fluke. I don't really believe he is a real MLB slugger, but I just think it would be fun (and just) for someone to give him a chance.
That mock draft also has the Pirates taking a high school catcher at No. 4 because the Pirate's ownership has said they will not go over slot money for that pick.
BTW - if you have premium access on BaseballAmerica.com, there is a very interesting piece today about MLB coming down hard on signing bonuses (requesting a 10% decrease across the board) and how teams have to inform them if they plan to go over slot.
Expressing my opinion -- and isn't this what this place is for? -- is not putting words in people's mouth. It is my opinion that some of you regard Kemp more highly than he deserves to be -- elevating him to a savior-like stature. It is also my opinion that a batter who has proven he can hit major league pitchers is a more viable solution than Kemp.
Who is that batter? I DON"T KNOW. That is Colletti's job to know. He's getting paid to know. I'm just a little runt participating in a discussion that you feel I have no business participating in.
"His year by year IP don't indicate any injuries. They've been cautious with him whenever he's shown any soreness. He strained an oblique last year and they shut him down for a bit, but I figured that was just to keep his workload down. In fact, his workload looks pretty ideal. IP from 2004 to 2006 are 134, 146, 161 and he's perfectly healthy this year. I guess what I meant is that there's "pitcher" and "injury-prone pitcher" and I don't think a month on the DL as a rookie get's you moved to the latter camp.
However, like Biggio, would Russell prolong his career and be more valuable if he went back to third base? Just saying it, not suggesting it.
We don't have a legit catcher to replace him, but down the road the question will get asked as it did with Piazza. The difference being that Martin is a better defensive catcher than Mike was/is.
241
Exactly
Phillips only played first because Tracy wouldn't play Hee Sop. Also, Tracy had to play Dionner Navarro so playing Phillips over Hee Sop was a way of disrespecting DePo.
Not really, we just took offense that you infered that Ned had the answer even though he put us in the position we are in. 1st place is great but the offense is still a problem. He can make a good decision (Furcal) but he can also make a bad decision(Lugo) so just saying Ned knows best seems silly.
Kemp is probably not the savior but even with his warts he's better then anyone of our current starting outfielders.
I thought Will was implying some type of "attitude" or "makeup" issue with Chad and I always thought that was the least of anyone's concerns about him.
Maybe he just remembered the DL trip in 2006 and that Chad has been in the bullpen all this year (not due to any physical issues as far as we know), and used that to come up with his cute "injury-prone" tag.
I first got tivo when Phillips was playing and he was my favorite Dodger for one reason: He would put his tongue in the corner of his mouth and leave it on his lip and I would pause it and show my wife and that helped draw her in as a baseball fan which she is fully now. My daughter did that same thing with her tongue all the time for about a year so I grew fond of Phillips. Also, anyone who pisses off TJ Simers is good in my book.
As a ballplayer, he was a decent backup who couldn't throw out a baserunner.
Even if that is the case our high regard for Kemp is far, far more reasonable than your own evaluation of him, which was expressed so concisely in 205: "Kemp swings, misses. Swings, misses."
I have a serious, non-sarcastic question for you: What level of minor league performance should be required for a player to get a chance to play in the majors? Kemp, over the last three years, has dominated the minor leagues at every step. He has proven that AAA is not especially challenging to him. Are you saying such a player should never be given a chance? How would any player ever establish himself as a major leaguer under those ground rules?
thanks for refreshing my memory, but Phillips really stunk it up for us, i guess it was an even trade.
Would you rather have used David Ross as the everyday guy?
he was a good catch & throw guy, but getting rid of Ishii was really good so even trade it is.
Look, we already have the perfect catcher. Let's not mess it up.
I still believe he'll get his shot next week. Unless Kemp is in serious trouble for off the field antics, he has earned his shot more than once and we have a need. He is in the Show by the 13th of this month! Quote me on that.
I agree. Biggio had more power. My only concern is the demands of catching means he can't play everyday (or shouldn't Mr. Little!). He is the heart and soul of this team and so valuable, I believe if he gets hurt, we don't make the playoffs.
exactly.
Isn't it possible that what Colletti and co. "see" is not something lacking with him, but a lack of room on the current team to get him the full time play that he needs? I don't agree with them, because I think a move should be made to get him starting, but isn't it possible it's not something about him directly but trying to manage the guys they have currently? Just asking...
On the other end of the spectrum, Jason Kendall is making $13,429,623 this season to do this:
.191/.235/.202/.437
Again, nobody is promising that Kemp is the answer -- just that he is better than what the Dodgers are currently trotting out to CF. Many are confused as to why he lost his job after he got hurt. All his supporters are saying is give him a chance before you trade him and a pitcher for Aaron Rowand (and I like Aaron Rowand).
That says a lot more about you than it does about Matt Kemp.
Because Ned Colletti can't admit to making a mistake?
Name AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS GIDP AVG OBP SLG OPS
Luis González 106 33 6 0 10 21 8 11 0 0 3 0.311 0.360 0.651 1.011
Juan Pierre 29 11 3 0 0 2 0 0 10 0 2 0.379 0.419 0.483 0.902
Jeff Kent 78 23 5 0 4 12 3 15 0 0 5 0.295 0.333 0.513 0.846
Brady Clark 33 11 2 0 0 2 2 3 1 1 2 0.333 0.371 0.394 0.765
Nomar Garciaparra 15 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 0.267 0.267 0.400 0.667
Andre Ethier 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667
Olmedo Sáenz 6 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0.167 0.167 0.333 0.500
Mike Lieberthal 52 12 2 0 0 6 0 6 0 0 3 0.231 0.226 0.269 0.496
Rafael Furcal 11 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0.182 0.250 0.182 0.432
Wilson Betemit 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.200 0.200 0.200 0.400
Marlon Anderson 23 3 1 0 0 1 1 6 0 1 0 0.130 0.160 0.174 0.334
Ramón E. Martínez 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.077 0.077 0.077 0.154
Russell Martin 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Wilson Valdez 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
I hope LuGo and Kent feel rejuvenated against a sure HOFer against whom they have been successful in the past. And is Maddux a guy the Dodgers' CF can get healthy facing - or at least collect a couple hits?
I would humbly suggest that if six hits with a double in 14 AB makes no lasting impression on you, then your standards might be too high. Just my opinion.
So what you're saying is that some drastic change has occurred between last year, when they clearly were in a hurry to bring him up, and this year. What would that be?
278 "Maybe Kemp is not all that you envision him to be -- something they know but you don't?"
We don't -- and yet you do? Hmm.
Look, I'm not trying to pick on you. But the more you try to explain your position, the less and less sense it makes.
Ned and his staff realize that's he's only 22, which is why he's still getting seasoning. But to suggest that there's some conspiracy theory as to why he's not up is simply wrong. I guarantee Kemp is the most untouchable hitter in the organization next to Martin.
But the "prima donna" crack might have some truth to it. I have heard it before. About a year and a half ago, around December 2005, a poster I consider reliable on another board said a nephew of his who works in journalism was able to arrange for him to have a phone conversation with a Basball America writer whom he would not identify, since the guy wasn't exactly talking on the record. The poster just wanted to ask some questions about Dodger prospects and maybe hear some things that don't make it into BA's magazine or website. Anyway, the writer had some very surprising things to say about Billingsley, saying he rubs a lot of people, a lot of teammates, the wrong way because he is pretty arrogant. He also said the Dodgers considered him, because of his arrogance, somewhat "uncoachable," and for that reason the Dodgers thought more highly of Scott Elbert. He likened Billingsley to the Blue Jays' Dave Stieb, a talented pitcher who couldn't get along with anybody.
Is there truth to the above? I have been somewhat skeptical, since that was the only time I ever heard anything like it. Baseball America's WRITING certainly never hinted at any kind of attitude problem on Billingsley's part, and since Billingsley has been in the majors we have heard nothing about him being uncoachable or being unpopular with teammates. As we know from the case of Joel Guzman, the Ddogers are also pretty intolerant of prospects who show bad make-up, so if they really thought Billingsley had a personality problem they probably would have traded him long ago. But being called a "prima donna" by Will Carroll probably does amount to hearing a second source confirm, sort of, what the other guy was saying. But since Carroll got Billingsley's injury history wrong, how reliable is he really?
And for that reason, I say again: Go get that frickin' proven bat! I'm tired of watching this pathetic offense.
I don't think we can draw too many inferences from what Colletti says to the media. Every GM is less than forthcoming in his public statements about his players. We should draw our conclusions from what Ned does rather than what he says.
I thought this insight from one of the newest Dodgers was very interesting.
And while I tend to not get into the JP discussion that much here, maybe this explains why Juan always looks like someone sent him to bed without dessert after another poor at bat.
"Schmidt had played for Little while coming up through the Atlanta Braves' farm system. "He tells it like it is, and I think every player, deep down, appreciates that," Schmidt said.
"He'll tell you when you've done good things, but he'll also lay it on the line when things are bad. Maybe you don't want to hear the bad, and you'll go in the corner and cry about it for a day, but you also realize and appreciate that you're being dealt with honestly. And the record shows he's a winner."
If it is the former, then that's no real opinion at all.
If it is the latter, then you're previous argument that the front office should be trusted because they know the club better disappears.
By happenstance, you are also the GM. You need to orchestrate a trade for a "proven bat" because you're not sold on Matt Kemp. What position is replaceable? What veteran do you seek out? What do you offer the other team in compensation for the player you want?
Come on, let's pretend.
I've interviewed Billingsley, and while judging anybody on the basis of one interview is admittedly shaky, I have to say that my impression of him was exactly the opposite.
And there is a fine line between being labeled as arrogant or primadonna versus being considered an ultimate competitor or someone who hates losing.
All that being said, I think if this was a big issue, we would have heard more about this in some public forum before today.
I do believe that you earn a certain amount of deference when you're a veteran. You've earned the right to work your way out of a slump, even a two-month slump.
The question is exactly how much deference such a player should get. Has Nomar worn out his welcome? Some would definitely say yes; I personally think a little while longer is in order.
I'll not discuss the elephant in the room.
Kent's defensive issues, I think need to be addressed.
We'll never know how the outfield would have played out if Kemp doesn't bang into the wall but the fact that he made the opening roster should be evidence that the club does consider him as a top prospect and the only thing keeping Matt in Sin City is playing time up here. If something happens that makes him a everyday player, he will be here. And I think he is the most likely next outfielder for the Dodgers.
So while that isn't everything, but considering his history with Grady, his relationship with the fans and his so far lack of injury, Nomar will not be doing anything but playing first this year for the Dodgers.
Nomar to 3B
Abreu to 2B
Kent to 1B
Obviously, the offense is exactly the same... is the defense better?
"pierre especially and nomar to a lesser extent have done what was expected, but i'm not convinced kemp and loney would be a significant upgrade. can't imagine management pulling the plug on either right now.."
No, I do not think it helps. Nomar can't play third. I don't know if Kent is better than Nomar at first. Abreu definitely is better at second. So it seems like it would not do much help.
He can't move that well anymore. I do not think he would react quick enough.
Have you seen something this season that makes you think otherwise?
I mean this sincerely. Everything I've heard is that "he has to play first because he's fragile," and we've had that discussion.... I don't recall too many others saying that he has to play first because it's the only position on the infield he can handle.
Again, you probably know more about it than I do.
Yes. I hate having bad defensive players and when Jon showed that stat that Kent may be the worse in the league, then I started to think he is not worth the trouble. Plus, Ned will probably keep him around another year.
That's very Branch Rickey-esque of you.
When Matt Kemp's luggage was lost last week, he couldn't play because his contact lenses were inside. Not the colored lenses from spring training that he ditched after a few tries. So it was more about literally seeing the ball this time around.
On last month's batting-practice scuffle between Kemp and Delwyn Young: "As quickly as it happened, it disappeared. Those two are hooked at the hip."
On Mitch Jones and his 19 home runs: "They've been bombs. There hasn't been a cheapie."
http://www.beloblog.com/Pe_Blogs/baseball/dodgers/2007/06/on_the_farm_1.html
both of your takes sound more reasonable so i'll go with what you guys said. Ethier & Penny had a little of that last year & i never questioned it for the reasons stated by both of you.
I see Young as our Olmedo Saenz of the future.
Young's D is bad news?
He always struck me as the kind of guy who would be a good enough hitter to hold an everyday job, if he could defend. Since he can't, his ceiling is probably Professional Hitter.
I thought he had a good arm at least...
I see him projecting as a good 4th OFer, not convinced about him as a starter yet, but I do like him. I wish they had minor league fielding stats on the milb sites.
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