Pierre better be decent with how fast he is. Kent looks a lot better than last year. He doesn't look great and he looked at least as good in 2005, but he looks a lot better than last year.

BTW, I got the first post.

The gift of Repko just keeps on giving. I just can't get over the fact he did this in a ST game.

It's not enough that I read every DT post, all the comments, most of the blogs listed on the right side bar...now I have at least three or four more sites to visit every five minutes at work. When am I ever going to get anything done?! :)

3
Did you Jon was going to start selling his own line of unemployment insurance?

4 Maybe Ken can just hire me and I can work on this site all the time...then I'd be using my time efficiently.

I haven't been able to watch many games this year. Is it possible that Pierre is a case of some truly bad fielding plays outweighing (in our minds) all the routine and above average plays he makes on a daily basis but don't draw much notice?

6 I think part of the bias was induced by a horrible stretch of bad plays early in the season that got everyone off on the wrong foot.

I'm not very well versed on defensive stats, but do any of them take throwing arm into account?

8 Zone rating doesn't, but even the worst arms (i.e Pierre) only cost the team five runs a year.

Maybe Flanders already knows all of this. Wouldn't that be ironic.

10 Like rain on your wedding day.

it seems to me that if the guy who came up with the data is questioning what the data says vs. his naked eye, then there's reason to question the validity.

Also, I think part of the problem is that, given his speed, Pierre should be much better than he is. He makes up for bad reads and weird angles with speed. So maybe the perception of his "bad" defense might be more of a perception of "not as good as it should be."

And that arm... eesh.

6, 7 - Yes, all that is possible.

8 - It does not take arm into account - and I meant to mention that.

12 - The guy I interviewed is not the guy who came up with the data. In any case, I don't agree that it makes the data invalid - even if it's not definitive.

A certain player is currently rocking a -5 FRAA/RAA.

That is all.

13- oh, well then never mind. And I wasn't saying that it was invalid, just that there was obvious reason to take it with a grain of salt.

Yeah, I think the (way) below average arm strength for both Pierre and Gonzo are the most obvious and consistent shortcoming for both of them, and that won't change. I will say both of them have improved their abillity to track down and catch flies since earlier in the season - Gonzo looked awful particularly early, Pierre for awhile after that, both of them have been much more solid (imho) the past month or two, in that arena. They will continue to be poor in throwing/arm strength though.

--

I am still worried about Furcal. He's so key to the offense. If he can't get going because of the ankle, no matter how much the kids contribute I'm not sure whether the D's can make it this year. But we'll see. Hopefully he can play through the pain, or the pain will subside.

If his range is better, I suppose it can compensate for lack of arm strength since in some cases catching the ball will eliminate the need to make a throw.

Pierre's fast, maybe he can outrun one of his throws home. You know, just sprint to the infield and to home plate with the ball - that'd be faster.

14 - I'm not sure here, but I think the FRAA/RAA numbers (and rate2 figs. as well) only take into account raw defensive plays, not plays made against plays in one's zone.

Basically, if LA pitchers generated less flyballs than the norm, LA's OFers would be penalized for that.

Right now Furry is like a road block on the bases. I'd like to see him batting eighth until the ankle heals.

That Prospectus article is great- thanks for the link. For those who didn't click through, these are the players who swung at the lowest % of pitches outside the zone this year.

Julio Lugo .206
Marco Scutaro .204
Jim Thome .203
Esteban German .188
Reggie Willits .186
Bobby Abreu .185
Jack Cust .175
Andy Laroche .160
Wilson Betemit .155
Dan Johnson .148

20,

Wow- not sure if you watched yesterdays game but he was FLYING when he scored from second on Gonzos line drive single. Albeit, that's an observation of the naked eye.

9 regfairfield, that's amazing to me that a terrible arm only costs a team five runs a year. Are you sure you didn't mean "five runs at a pennant" or something along those lines?

Seriously, where can I learn more about this?

22 He seems to run ok once he get's going, but I was thinking more in terms of stealing bases. He's definitely not doing that and I attribute it to the ankle.

For those that care, Copa America 2007 is being shown on something called Gol TV. I think it's a Canadian soccer channel. 614 for the DirecTV crowd.

24 - Furcal has had Pierre and Nomar basically swinging at the next two pitches thrown, making for a short window to steal a base. But, yeah, he looks hurt to me too.

From Kevin Pearson on the Press-Enterprise blog. (Nearly the same words in Gurnicks article as well.)

Jeff Kent left the game in after fouling a ball off the big toe of his left foot in the sixth inning. X-Rays were negative and he is day-to-day.

So if Nomar isn't ready for 3B yet, and Abreu plays 2B, I guess Betemit gets a couple more shots at third.

Maybe the 4 days off for the all-star break will help, heck let's make it 5 or 6 if that will matter. I really hate to think being rushed back from that stupid spring training/Repko play will diminish his career.

25 That channel is weird. All of the DirecTV labels are in Spanish (the game on Thursday is listed as Argentina vs. Estados Unidos), but the game announcers are English.

I am become Repko, destroyer of worlds...

30
Umm, that's not pop culture! If we want you making references to classic religious works, we'll tell you.

25. Oh, Uruguay is getting ready to go on a run.

31 Furcal got Repkowned.

Or

Jason Repko:Dodgers::Badluck Schleprock:Flinstones

Better?

33
Ahh, TV eases the pain.

So, I followed this baseballnooz link, and there is a link to a Rangers blog where a trade of Loney, Kemp and Bryan Morris for Teixeira is discussed.

Some of the commenters didn't think that package from the Dodgers was good enough. They were talking about throwing in Billingsley or Kershaw as well.

Kuo's ERA as a starter (minus the Toronto aberration): 2.74

Gurnick, mlb.com: Little mentioned Betemit's lack of production as a key element in his decision to move Garciaparra to third base and open first base for Loney.

Hmmm, Betemit has a higher OBP, his SLG is > 100 points higher, his RBI/PA is identical (despite Nomar's vaunted RISP stats), and his R/PA higher. Who's more "productive"?

Name PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG
Nomar 285 265 22 73 12 0 1 38 17 25 0.275 0.316 0.332
Betemit 150 121 17 24 5 0 8 20 25 38 0.198 0.333 0.438
Betemit* 285 230 32 46 10 0 15 38 48 72 0.198 0.333 0.438
* extrapolated to Nomar's PAs

(yes, take extrapolation for what it is worth [but it reflects the current rate], small sample sizes, etc.)

Same data in a table:
http://tinyurl.com/3bjqc3

If we go 45-41 (.523) the rest of the way, we would match the 88 wins of 2006. If we go 28-58 (.326) the rest of the way, we would match the 71 wins of 2005.

But in other news, Pope Benedict XVI has reinstated the rule that any new pope be elected by a 2/3 majority. There had been a change where the College of Cardinals could elect a pope with a simple majority if there had been a deadlock.

The upshot of this:

Expect lots of friends of Frankie Frisch to become Pope.

39
I gotta move that joke to the Griddle! I look at you as my focus group.

37 But who would you rather have come to the plate in the ninth inning down by a run with a man on second base, Nomar or Betemit? I'd still vote Nomar, prolonged slump withstanding. Really, I'm just happy it's not Jason Phillips.

41 In order to exercise that choice, I'd have to have both on the bench, or one pinch-hit for the other. Otherwise, the position in the batting order when that situation arises is pretty random.

Or, in other words, you must want to have Nomar on the bench so you can make that choice. ;)

Maybe this was mentioned in a previous thread, but Vinny mentioned during the game yesterday that the Dodger player most sought after in trade talks by other teams is...Wilson Betemit. By far.

With Nomar penciled in at third, unless there's a superstar available at first, I don't see Colletti pulling the trigger on a trade. Unless Loney suddenly hits a major slump or Nomar gets hurt and/or hits a bit RISP slump too, of course.

Not to suggest I think Betemit got a fair look this year, it's just when the realistic choices seem to be Nomar and Loney in the lineup together or Nomar and Betemit in the lineup together, I'll go with Nomar and Loney. Nomar will not be sitting.

I still don't get why they scrapped the Betemit/LaRoche platoon so hastily.

Every time I see Nomar hit I just wonder what would happen if he could wait for a ball over the plate to swing at. Leaning over the plate to nub a gounder to SS on a pitch 4-5" off the plate can only (not) work for so long.
Where was he on the list of players who swing at balls outside of the strike zone?

37 Of course, that's using Betemit's overall numbers, including his completely different numbers as a PH. As a 3B, Betemit goes to:
.155 .291 .330 .621

Where he sports a lower average, OBP, and SLG than Nomar. Then again, we don't have Nomar's numbers as a 3B this year. We do have Wilson's, and it's no wonder they don't want to start him there, a this rate.

The Dodgers got cash for the 51s' Mitch Jones when he signed with a Japanese team.

Does anyone know if that's to be the case with Matt White?

And did Bigbie and/or Mays ever catch on anywhere else?

What is the rationale for not including Betemit's PH numbers when calculating how well he hits compared to other possible Dodger third basemen?

Would it be so terrible if Furcal just stayed off his feet for a week? It sounds like he aggravates it every day he plays.

On his way to third base, maybe Nomar could take a vacation at shortstop, let Betemit and Abreu hold down third, and get Furcal up to full strength for the second half.

Secret hope: Abreu or Betemit will catch fire at third base before Nomar ever gets there, so when Furcal returns, Nomar goes to the bench as an infield sub.

50 - I'm no doctor or trainer, but I would rest Furcal.

51 But do you play one on TV?

You know, or at least did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night?

48 - Perhaps Matt White greased the Dodgers palm a bit to let him go...

55. Dr. McCoy
I'm a doctor, not a blog writer.

I haven't been reading as closely as I'd like, so I'm wondering -- what on earth did Jon write that has resulted in the batgirl blogad moving in?

56
I believe the company paid for the ad.

Betemit has a .213 BABIP this year vs. .321 career. So there is little reason to think he will hit .198 the rest of the way. Since May 1 he's hitting .247/.360/.616 compared to Nomar's .256/.293/.280.

Any perceived lack of production from Betemit is based on his 6-48 April. If his walk rate and ISO are for real, then if his AVG bounces back to his career norm you've got this: .259/.394/.499.

Still I concede that playing Betemit over Nomar is about as tough to sell as Jose Valentin replacing Beltre.

46 As a corollary to that: if the pitch is middle/outside, why not try to drive it to the opposite field? You stand a decent chance of driving it into the alleys. I'm always bothered when a hitter insists on trying to pull everything.... unless you have the power to simply muscle it hard, it makes sense to go with the pitch. Martin, for example, is best when he's not trying to pull everything but willing to hit it hard to all fields.

57 Ahh, it's not like the Google Ad thing where post content calls up different ads (e.g., the slew of Ayn Rand ads from a couple of years back), but instead the company somehow judged that this crowd might take notice of a pantsless lady holding a baseball bat.

Can't imagine where they'd have gotten that idea.

The fact/hearsay that Betemit gets mentioned most in trade requests/discussions doesn't necessarily mean he's really great. It's just that he's a realistic target right now, given how the Dodgers are using him. In a similar vein, I don't expect the Angels get many requests for Vlad, but often have Figgins come up in discussions because they recognize the Angels can move him if they get another 3B/DH in the deal. I suspect a trading partner would have more luck getting Betemit from the Dodgers than Loney or Kemp. They're recognizing that he has the potential to become better, and maybe they're offering the Dodgers a middling reliever in return, recognizing that with Billingsley's move to the rotation they have a hole to fill.

I think that what you see in Pierre is that he doesn't read the flies very well and often times takes a bad route but still catches up to it because of his speed. Compared that to Edmonds who reads flies very well, has great hands and takes a straight route to the ball. If you take a long fly ball that Edmonds catches on the run, Pierre might catch it but will take three extra steps getting there. Of course if the fly is close to the fence you would pick Edmonds over Pierre every time. Then you have the arm factor that is not considered in the statistics. You can't teach speed. (I couldn't resist.) :)

I agree with 62. It doesn't surprise me that Pierre shows well in the defensive metrics, since he has the speed to outrun so many of his mistakes. I think he still makes a lot more mistakes than your average centerfielder, but much of the time he seems to get to the ball anyway. I wish I had a nickel for every time Vinny has noted he broke the wrong way on a fly ball, but ended up catching it anyway.

Jon writes about baseball. Men like to read about baseball. Company wants to advertise effectively to men.

Hence, pantsless batgirl. The genius of American marketing is not to be underestimated.

Another thing I forgot to add is that, so far as I know, zone rating only measures plays made, not plays not made. This is just based on my observation, and so could be completely off base, but it seems to me that Pierre plays a lot shallower than other CFs, probably because of his arm. Thus, he tends to catch the soft bloopers in front of him, and many of his non-catches are balls that go over his head for doubles and triples. If that's true, then it means Pierre would have less value than other CFs with the same zone rating, since more of his missed balls are going for extra bases.

Again, I don't know that that's actually true, but it's definitely the impression I get from watching him.

Hey, she might be wearing some hotpants under there. You never know.

64 - Are you saying that pantsless batgirl wouldn't appeal to us if this were a D&D blog?

65 Not true. Zone rating simply divides the field into nine zones, then counts the percentage of balls caught in the fielders zone.

It seems fair to assume that Betemit is going to start getting more base hits and return to his career averages. Should we not assume the same for Nomar? I can't stand seeing Nomar in the lineup just as much as the next guy, but can he really play this badly throughout the whole year? He's not that old and he's healthy so why won't he improve?

68 - What about my 19? Am I correct there?

68 That's exactly what I thought. Which means I don't understand your first sentence. The fact that zone rating doesn't take the balls missed into account -- or, more to the point, how many bases those hits go for -- helps confirm my theory, not refute it.

19 Yep, FRAA is just range factor with a lot of adjustments.

68 I don't understand. If a player catches one ball in his zone, his zone rating is 1.000. If he catches one and misses one, it's .500.

67 I'm sure Pantsless Batgirl would appear on a D&D blog, but she'd probably be holding a sword or something.

"pantless batgirl" one of my late 60s fantasies. BIFF! OOF! WHAM!

Pantless Batgirl is cute and all, but let's not start going ga ga over here. I mean, come on...She's not even wearing adult diapers. She probably hasn't even been to outer space.

Feh

Even worse, her uniform has pinstripes.

I'll take me some SnorgTees girl over Pantless Batgirl any day.

www.snorgtees.com (SFW)

73 Okay. Let's say Player A catches eight out of every ten balls in his zone. Player B also catches eight of every ten balls in his zone. (For purposes of this hypothesis, we will call Player A "Beltran" and Player B "Slappy.")

Let's say that because Player A plays a deep center field, most of the balls in his zone that he misses are singles which fall in front of him. Let's also say that Player B plays a very shallow center field, and therefore most of the balls in his zone which he misses are triples that go over his head.

If I am not mistaken, both of those players would have a zone rating of .800. And yet, I think we can all agree that two triples are much more damaging to the defense than two singles are. So Player A will be a much more valauble defensive player than Player B, despite the fact that they have exactly the same zone rating.

67 Well, in that case it would more likely be the other kind of bats.

65 I agree with you that JP does seem to play a bit shallower and I'll also offer that he seems to go straight back pretty, getting decent jumps when it's straight over his head. It's the back-and-left and back-and-right routes that are sometimes off.

That said, route complaining does seem to be down of late, using subjective memory analysis, i.e., an observational guess.

79 Ah, got it. You're exactly right.

I am very much enjoying Pantsless Batgirl Thoughts today.

69 If Nomar reverts to his career .316 avg then he'll hit: .316/.357/.371.

There's more reason to think Betemit's AVG will bounce back to career norms than will Nomar's power.

83 Just don't overshare.

48. And did Bigbie and/or Mays ever catch on anywhere else?

Bigbie is playing for the Richmond Braves (Atlanta's AAA team). He pinch hit in last night's game and is currently hitting .205.

http://tinyurl.com/28pzqr

I guess everybody here already knows that the real Batgirl is one of the three or four best baseball bloggers around. Although she's recently retired, her archives are well worth reading.
http://www.bat-girl.com/

You know, I have to say, when you actually click on that Batdisplay ad link, after seeing the pantsless batgirl, it's a bit of a disappointment to actually get to their site. Yawn.

Not that I clicked on it or anything, not on purpose anyway.

I wonder if Jeff Kent has a pipeline to the Pantsless Batgirl.

Marlon Anderson tradee Jhonny Nunes goes tonight for the Nationals A affiliate (Hagerstown Suns). He's 1-5 with a 4.15 ERA this season.

88 I clicked on it to, uh, contribute in my own very small way to the Weisman HDTV fund. Yeah, that's it.

89 - No, but he's laying some pipe as we speak.

I am very much enjoying Pantsless Batgirl Thoughts today.

The advertising campaign is a success.

93 - What is it that she's selling though? Can you sell no pants?

You wouldn't even see the batgirl ad if you used a decent ad blocker.

95 One could, hypothetically, disable the ad blocker in order to see what the fuss is all about.

If one wanted to do that. Hypothetically. Just putting that out there. Not that I...nevermind.

So, Betemit/Nomar...