The title made me hungry.

I think the writers that did not vote for Rickey Henderson should not be allowed to vote again.

"Someone needs to stop Kevin James from making movies."

I'm embarrased to say it but that Mall Cop trailer cracks me up every time. I accept your scorn. :)

Tim Wallach is 3rd all-time in HR by a Dodger 3B.

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/R43M

Was the wind really bad last night for the other Bay Area DT residents?

Our old fence needs to be replaced now.

5
It was probably just localized 24 karma.

I've had to replace all three sides of my back yard fence the last few years because of wind storms.

Marty, thanks for the "Million Dollar Movie" reference yesterday. That's something that hadn't crossed my mind in quite some time.

5 - Not for me in SF, unless I slept through it. Didn't notice anything damaged in the city. Sure is unseasonably warm today though isn't it? Ah well, "global weirding," as Thomas Friedman calls it.

--

Scout.com's Tot Holmes has 1B Steven Caseres as #28 in his Dodger prospect countdown. He's one I've found intriguing...

6
Must have been all the shame of Janeane Garofalo exploding.

I just noticed while checking IMDB that there was a character on 24 that has underdog's name.

11 Was he also on "Jem" before 24?

Heh.

He was played by Doug Savant.

Hah hah. Couldn't they have found someone less boring than Doug Savant to play him?

In addition to Garofalo, it was weird/cool to see on 24 last night both Wild Bill Guarnere and the director of Medellin from Entourage.

14 - Hey now! Savant's a friend of mine, and a darn good youth baseball coach, too. Seriously good.

15
Did they explain how Tony Almeida is alive?

17
Nope.

Sorry, I wouldn't have been surprised to find that Doug himself frequented these boards. Apologies to him. I've only seen him on an episode of Desperate Housewives. I missed his turn as "me" ;-) on 24 but I'm sure it was more exciting than anything in my own life. He seems charming enough. At least he doesn't have blue hair and play glam rock like my other namesake.

15 Really? Wild Bill of Band of Brothers fame? How cool!

14 My wife says that "boring" is the least of his worries.

I need to change my name if I'm ever to succeed in show business. Is there already a Colin Farrell?

20
Yeah. I kept staring at him, thinking it was him, but I looked it up on IMDB to confirm.

21 did not come out right at all. She thinks he's quite attractive and likeable on Desperate Housewives.

19 No worries. I've honestly never seen him act. He's super nice guy, though.

20 a.k.a. Walden Belfiore on Sopranos, too!

Anyway, back to baseball. Have we signed Manny yet?

22 - I hear the name "Frank Sinatra" is available.

5 Pretty bad for me (Berkeley) but I think the other night was even worse.

Jon,

Thank You for the Duke Snider reference. I really appreciate it! My favorite player along with Feynman and Einstein.

Maybe you could add the Snider Web site to the right side of the page?

http://snideralbum.tripod.com/index.html

Thanks again.

Dodgers name Franklin Stubbs hitting coach at Single-A Inland Empire.

"In 2003 and 2004, Stubbs was a roving instructor for Atlanta, before becoming a coach at Single-A Myrtle Beach from 2005-06. The past two seasons, the former Dodger first baseman has been the hitting coach for the Braves' Double-A affiliate, the Mississippi Braves. The 2009 season will mark Stubbs' 22nd season in professional baseball."

29 In the 1956 Don Larson perfect game shown recently on MLB network, I was most taken with the ease and grace of Duke Snider. On that occasion, his almost-HR didn't quite make it, but he was still really impressive. I look forward to seeing more games with that era's Dodgers to look out for Snider.

Recently saw Duke and Campy on What's My Line:

http://www.trolleydodger.com/2008/12/12/whats-my-line-duke-and-campy/

I had a chance to review Jim Rice's career stats on B-R.com.

I initially thought he was overdue for the Hall of Fame. Now I'm not so sure. He never hit those magic markers of 500 HRs or 3000 hits. His career high for OPS+ in a season was 157, which is very good.

I guess what bothered me was that he had some years when he was great, and then a few other years where he was probably average. With that said, he had an OPS+ of over 100 in every year he played but two. That's very very good.

I'm undecided. I was too young to see Jim Rice play, but I suppose worse candidates have been inducted.

Is there a reason why Bobby Grich is not in the Hall of Fame?

Franklin Stubbs: Hokie Hokie Hokie, Hi

34
It's the same reason why Harold Stassen never became president.

http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090112&content_id=3740126&vkey=news_la&fext=.jsp&c_id=la

Nomar thinking about coming back, says Dodgers still a possibility.

37 - I saw something the other day on espn's bottom line that the Phillies were interested in Nomar. More playing time and probably better money, plus a chance to play in the Series.

38
Nomar could go to Philadelphia and be healed by the same magical water that Jayson Werth bathed in.

And then we could discuss every single day from now until the year 2039 about how the Dodgers should have kept Jayson Werth.

That's not a Rule 6 violation. I'm expecting the world to end in 2039.

34
You'd have to ask the voters who voted in Maz even though Grich was better offensively in every way and an excellent defensive 2nd baseman in his own right.

39 Why 2039? It's 2038 when all the world's Unix servers run out of time:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem

39
Or we could discuss the hatred for ND, that rarely gets brought up.

41
2039 is when the world's supply of Soylent Green will run out.

I've written a book on this topic.

If Manny doesn't sign with us by Friday, I say move on to someone else. This situation is beyond tired now.

Last year, the Dodgers wore this patch on their jerseys saluting the team's 50th year in LA.

http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/la/fan_forum/anniversary_patch.jsp

Next year both the Yankees and Mets will wear patches saluting their first year in their new ballparks.

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2009/01/12/yankees-break-out-a-new-patch/

The Mets lose again.

44 Why Friday, I mean what does it matter when this happens as long as it happens.

The Burrell signing didn't appear to set off a firestorm of corner outfield signings so I think it will be a while before this all get resolved.

The latest Angels-White Sox rumor is hilarious. Chone Figgins for Dye? The Angels would want another outfielder?

Charlie Weis and Jimmy Clausen are the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human beings I've ever known in my life.

46 Mid-January is long enough for a major free agent to make up his mind. Period. I want our offense/pitching to be clear ASAP.

At this point are we really waiting on Manny. Has a formal offer even been made to anyone? The only offer we know about is the one they pulled off the table back in November.

45
Wow, the Mets patch is beyond pathetic.

48
Must have been hard to type that with all your fingers crossed.

51
It looks like some sort of boring font and that it was created using Microsoft Word for 2 minutes.

47
That would be like saying we don't need an outfielder because we have Juan Pierre on the roster.

49 Is a team's roster ever clear? There are just about 3 months until opening day, that's a lot of time for things to happen, expecially injuries.

I understand the frustration but there isn't any incentive for Manny to sign with anyone unless he and Boras feels that their are no better offers out there. And right now, they apparently feel that there is a market for Manny.

What good would it do the Dodgers to place a deadline that they can't really force them to make?

There are no threats the Dodgers can make to force Manny to come to the table and there isn't any other market forces to cause the Dodgers to bid against themselves.

I hope Franklin Stubbs can teach his pupils how to hit game-winning grand slams.

Is a team's roster ever clear?

A starting lineup can certainly be clear. Right now, we have a black hole in LF. I'd like to know if we're going to get some offense at that position. And I want to know before this month is over, at the very latest.

57 All right, you gave them until the end of January.

And I don't think even if they sign Manny, the second base question and the 4th and 5th starters will be cleared up until March.

I think it is clear DeWitt is the second baseman.

34 - Daniel, meet Matt Welch:

http://www.mattwelch.com/archives/2006/12/24-week/#2834

Also, judging by Kim and Ned's comments, McDonald will be in the rotation whether he is 4th or 5th.

The Dodgers have a few players like Stubbs in the minor leagues. Big LF 1st/OF types with long swings and lousy plate discipline. The man had 10 seasons in the major leagues only three teams posted an OBP > 300. And he's our hitting instructor. Awesome, I hope he came at a discount. Can't wait to see what he teaches Gallagher, Orr, Caseres, Ortiz, Van Slyke, and Jacobs.
At least he tore up the minor leagues something the above have yet to accomplish.

61 And judging from his quotes during the playoffs, Torre seems to have a man crush on J-Mac's talent.

Watching the Madow circus here on the east coast, and the judge's seeming reluctance to let this guy go to jail, I think a new approach is inevitable, and will happen due to popular demand. A small time investment counciler, stealing a few thousand--same as general theft. Stealing six figures---grand larceny. Millions---about the same as three strikes. Billions---basically similar to murder; whether second degree or first, I'm not sure.
What does this have to do with baseball and the Dodgers? Schmidt and Jones are in the millions range, and it would be hard to convince me they didn't know before they signed on the dotted line. (or were incompetent to sign a document like this)

143 From last thread.

Cabinets are not as hard as some people think. It's doable with one person, but two definitely helps. Install the upper cabinets first, and just attach a board (1x4 works good) to the wall, perfectly level, at the height you want the bottom of the cabinets to be. Then set the cabinets on the board, starting in the corner, and screw them in. Make sure you are screwing them into the studs. The bottom cabinets can be a bit more difficult, but nothing having plenty of shims on hand can't fix. Just make sure you end up with them perfectly level before you try to install the counter top. Also, after you have the old cabinets out, you want to make sure the wall you are installing on is perfectly flat and exactly perpendicular to the floor. The counter top itself can be very tricky, especially if it is a large kitchen and you will have seems. If you are thinking of granite, stone, etc. I would definitely have this part done by a professional.

41 - we don't have to worry about that one because the Mayan calendar expires in 2012. Even though that doesn't mean the end of the world, just the return of the heathen gods.

66
Will the heathen gods have more Soylent Green than what we have now?

I've been trying to corner the market on Soylent Green at the Chicago Board of Trade.

ok, someone remind me the significance of BABIP, again, please? Should BABIP be higher, lower, or about the same as AVE? And why do we control for home runs and strike outs, again?

(these questions just popped into my head because I was checking Stubbs' career numbers after reading 62 )

BABIP is an attempt to isolate luck (a specific part of it, anyway). Home runs, strike outs, and walks don't depend on fielders, so they're taken out of the equation. The expected BABIP will be .12+(LD%/100). Anything north of that is considered lucky. Anything south, unlucky. More or less.

F. Stubbs is a hitting instructor somewhere down low in the org.? This is the kind of thing you can't make up. Fiction will never surpass reality.

67 - I'm guessing Soylent Green won't be much of a concern when Quetzalcoatl is flying over Mexico DF.

69 Taking out those three must leave a pretty small sample size for Adam Dunn.

Thanks for the cabinet advice everyone. Much appreciated.

62
The Dodgers have a few players like Stubbs in the minor leagues. Big LF 1st/OF types with long swings and lousy plate discipline. The man had 10 seasons in the major leagues only three teams posted an OBP > 300. And he's our hitting instructor. Awesome, I hope he came at a discount

It's hard to predict what kind of coach Stubbs will be based on his playing record. Perhaps Stubbs has ideas about hitting that he couldn't execute himself.

Charlie Lau was a well-regarded hitting coach in his day, and his career OPS+ was 89. Stubbs' was 96.

Walt Alston struck out in his only plate appearance, and he made an error in the field. Sparky Anderson put up a 43 OPS+ in only one full season in his career. Tony Larussa's career OPS+ is 53. All 3 turned out to be HOF managers.

Obviously manager is a different position than hitting coach, but the point is that what matters is the individual's ability to teach. Sort of a do as I say, not necessarily as I did mentality.

71
A cool video game would be a world where all of the geographic mythical Gods came to life so Zues could battle Shiva for World Domination.

72 That's part of the beauty of Adam Dunn.
And if we don't get Manny, I will accept Dunn rather well.(although I appreciate defense, and have seen that Manny can be not that bad.

75 - heh, I actually have a script/novel idea about the ancient gods returning to earth. not as campy as the star trek episode where they meet the titans in deep space.

77
Don't get bummed when Marvel releases Thor in two years.

A little similar to the video game series God of War.

Its surprising that Marvel hasn't hit a clunker yet with its movies since they rebooted with the Spider-Man movies. Or was that Punisher:Warzone?

80
I can't imagine that movie cost much to make so it should be fine once it comes out on video.

68 BABIP isn't compared to average. BABIP matters relative to one's line drive percentage. I think you're thinking about it the wrong way. We don't care about BABIP and LD% to assess the talents of a player. Comparing BABIP and LD% is used to measure how "lucky" a player has been. And by "lucky", I mean whether chance has been on his side, ie, has the player gotten as many hits as his hitting style would indicate?

We're not concerned with strikeouts and home runs. It's not because we want to punish weak hitters. We're not comparing power hitters and weak hitters. We're just comparing whether ONE particular hitter has been lucky or not.

Line drive percentage helps measure how when a player gets "good wood", ie, drives the ball, hits it square, etc. If a player drives the ball, he's more likely to get a base hit of some kind. Simple enough, right?

Also, note that line drive percentage only keeps track of times when the ball is actually put in play (ie, ground balls, fly balls, live drives). We're ALREADY only looking at balls in play. That's why we're concerned with BABIP and not BA.

Now, you'd think that a player who hits lots of line drives would have a high batting average out of those balls he hits. It makes sense right? Flyballs and groundballs are easier outs. Less of those and more line drives mean ought to mean more hits. This is true in the long run but not always in the short run.

If someone has a high BABIP and a low LD%, they're probably getting lucky. ie, flyballs are dropping in front of outfielders, ground balls are finding holes, etc. If someone has a low BABIP and a high LD%, they're probably unlucky. Line drives are getting gobbled up by good fielders. So, over time, you'd would think that these things tend to balance out (for most players). They do, and in the long run (hundreds and hundreds, maybe thousands of at-bats), BABIP tends correlate with LD%.

So, it's only comparing what happens when a ball is hit in play. We're not comparing players who strike out 50% of the time with those who strike out 1% of the time. If a player who strikes out 50% of the time has a good line drive percentage, his batting average on balls in play ought to also be high. But that alone doesn't mean his batting average will also be high, because he strikes out a lot.

This is useful to see if a player is hitting "over his head." If a player is hitting .400 and has a really high BABIP but a fairly low LD%, we can be pretty sure that he's not gonna be able to keep hitting .400.

For example, when regfairfield says that James Loney hit a legit .380 in AAA, he's referring to James Loney's LD%/BABIP numbers. Loney had a GREAT LD%. So even though his BABIP was pretty high, he backed it up because he was hitting line drives. He wasn't hitting pop-ups to no man's land. He was smacking the ball.

Does that make more sense?

82
Great posts like that are why you got quoted on the sidebar. :)

Very informative.

80
They haven't hit a clunker with their own studio but they had two clunkers with Punisher and Elektra made by outside studio's. The Elektra bomb was one of the reasons why they decided to stop licensing rights to characters and create their own studio.
They got lucky when New Line didn't know what to do with Iron Man and the rights reverted back to them but they deserve the credit for getting it right.
Tis a shame about Spiderman. They make lots of dough on the toys side but very little on the box office side even with the billions it has brought in because of the deal they signed with Sony. They had to do it to make themselves solvent but it is a tough pill to swallow for them to see Sony making all the money.
With Iron Man they finally see all the profit themselves.

80 - Marvel studios is definitely off to a good start with Iron Man and The Incredible Hulk. It is going to be interesting to see how they pull off Thor and Captain America as both are tricky to cast and adapt to the current universe.

And of course all of this is dependent on the MLB stringer getting it right. Line Drive/Fly Ball is it subjective or objective?

85
With the purchase of the MB studio they have made a huge commitment to film everything in Los Angeles, this should help them continue to draw in the top talent.
Does anyone in Hollywood not want to work for them right now?

Jose Valverde is going to make $8 million for his last year of arbitration after settling with the Astros. If the D'backs kept him last year, they win the NL West.

86 I don't think it's some lonely MLB stringer. According to The Hardball Times:

LD%:
Line Drive Percentage. Baseball Info Solutions tracks the trajectory of each batted ball and categorizes it as a groundball, fly ball or line drive. LD% is the percent of batted balls that are line drives. Line drives are not necessarily the hardest hit balls, but they do fall for a hit around 75% of the time.

Based on that, it seems like there must be some standardized way to calculate it, I would imagine having something to do with distance traveled and time in the air.

This is Clipper related but I thought the column was funny.
http://www.clipsnation.com/2009/1/12/718347/is-chris-kaman-s-foot-caus

87 - The thing I like about their casting so far (RDJ and Norton) is that neither were A-list actors but just very well regarded for the quality of work they produce. I hope they continue that trend on their upcoming films.

89
Isn't it still a person who makes the subjective decision? Just like an umpire following guidlines for ball and strikes you will have different interpretations or am I completely off base?

Robert Downey Jr. is A list.

93
He is now. But his career was not thriving and he was not a box office draw.

I believe OhioBlues12 is referring to box office draw capabilities.

88
Qualls had a better year than Valverde. Maybe the D-Backs should have just had him close instead of Lyon.

78 - not going to be bummed at all. mine is a completely different idea then Thor. besides, just a very raw idea that i've been kicking around for a while. never really sure how i'd make it work, or which gods it would be.

in re Marvel Studios: Captain America should be very easy to adapt to modern times, though they'd be better off doing the first act as the WWII stuff with him riding the rocket and then the second and third act being his return.

Captain America is tough because nothing could be less cool than American patriotism.

The problem with Captain America is that his suit and shield are too corny.

How about a litle baseball talk.

Michael Young wants out of Texas, and the Rangers would have to eat part of the salary.

Would Young for Dewitt and Pierre work? And move Furcal to 2B?

Just a thought.

100

I'd rather trade for Wolverine. :-)

92 I can't be sure. But I would think that someone could come up with some function that says if a ball spent x time in the air and traveled y feet (horizontal feet, not including height), it's either a ground ball, line drive, or fly ball. The height of the ball can be determined from how much time the ball spent in the air.

Fly balls would have small y's but large x's.
Ground balls would have small x's relative to their y's. Line drives somewhere in-between.

(I made that up, ie, didn't read it anywhere).

98 Captain America = Derek Jeter.

100
Michael Young is due $80 million over the next 5 years, his age 32-36 seasons. No thanks.

100
Also, Michael Young is a horrible defensive SS, despite his Rafael Palmeiro / Derek Jeter-esque Gold Glove.

+/-
2006: -10 (28th among MLB SS)
2007: -15 (32nd)
2008: -7 (27th)

98 You should read Ultimates. Captain America can be badass. Basically, its Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino except he still has the body of a 25 year old.

How did Palmeiro get a gold glove in 99 when he only played first base for 28 games?

106

Does he wear a less ridiculous outfit?

107
No idea. That is easily the worst GG choice ever, and perhaps one of the very worst award choices in MLB history.

108 Modified Captain American suit with Kelver, no angel wings on the helmet, and the helmet itself is an army helmet.
Here's a pic.
http://tinyurl.com/7yodyq

104 It was only a thought. Pierre is owed $28.5 million over the next 3 years, so doesn't that make Young more like $51.5 million over the next 5?

Man, we're not even halfway through the Pierre contract yet. Such a bummer.

We will be once June rolls around! Then again, I don't expect JP to be here once the season starts. Somebody is going to bite.

Who's playing center field for the White Sox next year?

I heard rumblings that the Captain America movie is going to be set in the 40s and ends up with him being frozen and the Avengers movie involves finding him and thawing him out.

In fact theres a pretty ridiculous alternate intro to the Hulk movie thats on the DVD where if you squint hard enough you can see Captain Americas shield underneath the ice after the Hulk induces an avalanche.

Decision time: With Tom Cable's contract set to expire Tuesday, things are picking up at Raiders headquarters. Al Davis is talking to Packers assistant coach Winston Moss about the head-coaching job and may set up something formal with Kevin Gilbride of the Giants. Cable remains the favorite to have the title of interim turned into full-time, but Davis is going to explore some options this week.

via espn insider

111. - I think Young has already been paid $18mn in signing bonus, so he's due $62 over the next 5 years. Personally, I like Mike Young a lot...character guy, SoCal native, and if we can rid the team of a bad contract to get a solid #2 hitter I would do it. Plus, I would expect the Rangers to eat a portion of his contract to trade him.

117 Michael Young's contract is just as bad as Pierre's, so we wouldn't be ridding ourselves of anything. He also was not a solid number two hitter last year and definitely would not be in Dodger Stadium.

117 Well, that's even better. That makes his contract $33.5 million over 5 years in the exchange. If Young played SS and they moved Furcal to 2B, that could help keep Furcal healthy without the wear and tear of SS.

117
Yeah, I've been researching a bit on his contract. You are right, he is due about $62m over the next 5 years. There's some confusion as to how much of the remaining $18m was paid as a signing bonus, and how much is deferred as salary.

If we assume Young is due "only" $62m over the next 5 years ($12.4m/year), I still wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole. We don't have an open spot in the infield, except perhaps at 2B.

From Fangraphs, the projections for Young for 2009 range from an OPS of .756 to .776, and that's in Arlington (roughly a 100-103 OPS+). Blake DeWitt's projection range is wider, from .690 to .761 (roughly a 95-105 OPS+). That's not much of an upgrade, especially considering Young is entering ages 32-36 and likely to decline, while DeWitt will be 23-27 and likely to improve. I don't want to spend $12.4m/year on an "upgrade" that really isn't an upgrade.

Oh yeah, and that's assuming Young will move to 2B. He's already bitching about Texas wanting him to move to 3B, so why would he want to move positions somewhere else?

If we move Furcal to 2B to accommodate Young, we are moving a very good defensive SS (Furcal) to make room for a very bad one (Young; see 105 ).

There is roughly zero chance Young will become a Dodger, at least this offseason. And even if there was a chance, it would be an awful waste of money.

118 Young as a 2B or SS is much better then Pierre as an OF, no? Young had a bad 2008, but 2007 wasn't that bad, and his home/road splits in 2007 were comparable.

Again, we are talking about a middle infielder, not a corner infielder or corner outfielder.

I am not even saying do the deal. It was just a thought. But I do think Young (at his position) would be a big upgrade over Pierre.

60 Awesome. Thank you.

119 Except that Young is a horrible defensive shortstop (see 105 ). I would rather pay Pierre to sit on the bench than pay Young to be a poor SS or 2B and probably not hit or field as well as Blake Dewitt.

120
Adding a little more, from Fangraphs:

2008 Dollar Value
Michael Young: $7.5m
Blake DeWitt: $8.8m

I little bit of explanation of how that is calculated here:

http://tinyurl.com/axwa4g

123 That's fine. Just talking a little baseball, and thought I would throw that out there. I don't know if I would do the deal either, except that I want Pierre gone so bad, its tempting.

Dodgers could also ask JP to defer his money in an Andruw Jones type deal, and promise to cut him.

The one thing Michael Young has going for him is that he is the best player to come from UCSB.

121 Are you saying Young would be a bigger upgrade over Dewitt at 2B than Pierre is over Delwyn Young as a 4th outfielder? Although I don't believe that, it is possible. Howevr, I would pay $62 million over 5 years to find that out.

126 Makes you wonder why that hasn't been done yet.

So the reason why Bobby Grich is not in the Hall of Fame is because he batted .266 and the voters are too lazy or ignorant to figure out how to neutralize his stats. Nice.

128 Wow, I'm tired. Should be "However" and "wouldn't" and I should use preview.

130
Part of the reason might also be the confusion since Grich was referred to as "Bob" and "Bobby" on different baseball cards.

However, this confusion didn't hurt Roberto "Bob" Clemente. :)

128 Again, it would be about $33.5 million, not $62 million, because they wouldn't be paying Pierre.

I am not as high on DeWitt and ohers might be. The Fangraphs appears to be saying similar production, and I have to believe there's at least a chance those projections could be wrong. Have their projections ever been wrong?

So, similar (if not better) production at 2B, and Pierre is gone, making room for D. Young in the OF. I just don't see that as being a terrible, terrible thing.

130 I am stunned at how good of a hitter Grich was. I had no idea.

132 I wonder how much is also bias against lesser-known teams. Sort of the reverse-Jeter effect.

132
Shouldn't you be at another party?

133 So you want to pay $33.5 million so that D. Young can play instead of Dewitt? That's even worse.

Young isn't a great hitter, and you would be creating more holes than filling it while adding another $30 million to the payroll when its unneeded. I guess you can move DeWitt to 3rd, and Casey Blake to Left field, but then what about Manny if we sign him?

134 I don't think I appreciated when I watched him play as a kid -- like everyone else I was overawed with the other stars on the team -- Rod Carew, Don Baylor, Fred Lynn, Reggie Jackson, etc. I liked this article and the comments:

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/12/if_gordon_then.php

Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Andruw Jones has interest in returning to the Atlanta Braves, MyFoxAtlanta.com reports.

http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/myfox/pages/Sports/Detail?contentId=8237824&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=VSTY&pageId=6.1.1

133
The $28.5 million owed Pierre must be thought of as a sunk cost. That money is long gone.

If we deal for Young, we gain a player who is only marginally better (if at all) than the player in the infield he's replacing (DeWitt). Is it worth paying an average of $6.7m / year ($33.5/5) extra just to have Pierre gone? That seems like taking an awfully large risk for something that may or may not be an upgrade.

I don't know what's more amazing -- that this kid hit this shot to win the game, or that someone actually videtaped it:

http://tinyurl.com/8xs38p

135

Bobby Grich played on the Orioles when they were the class of the AL East and then was one of the first big time free agents when Gene Autry brought him to the Angels. Until Grich came to the Angels, post-season was just something they watched on TV. The Angels with Grich won the AL West in 1979 1982 and 1986.

Bobby Grich was probably one of the 3-4 best 2B in his time, only Morgan and Sandberg were better and they bracketed his career.

141 As more time passes on Juan Pierre's contract, I think more teams will be interested into acquiring him. 3 years at $28.5 million? No way. But two years at $18.5 million? One year at $9 million? You can sell yourself on it, especially if you like Juan Pierre's skillset.

144
Yeah, but for planning purposes it's best to think of that money as already spent. Then, if they can trade him, it's like found money! :)

MLB contracts are not like the NBA, there is really no value exchanging bad contract for bad contract.

And thought it may hard to believe, Michael Young for 5 years at an avg. $12.4M per year is much worse than JP at $9.33M for the next 3 years.

142 He had a nice follow through also. I think that's what did it for him.

142
But he didn't call bank!

I have two cool shot stories, sadly neither of which were preserved on film:

1) In 4th grade, my friend Trevor threw up a half-court shot at the end of recess that hit the rim, bounced over the backboard, hit the metal support behind the backboard, bounced back over the backboard and through the net. We were unaware at the time this was actually an illegal shot.

2) Just before my uncle moved out of his house in Redlands, we went on a family trip to Tahoe. Just as we were getting in the car, I chucked a small basketball roughly 60 feet into the net of his backyard basketball hoop. That was the last time I ever saw that house. I didn't think to pause with my hand in the air after the shot (then again this was probably 9 or so years earlier than Jordan on Byron Russell anyway).

If we can get Manny signed then I am liking the idea of keeping Pierre more and more. As long as Torre can manage his ego and desire to play everyday, I think we would be a good option off of the bench and spelling Manny, Kemp, and Ethier throughout the season. He would bring good defense to the late innings and the threat of speed. I am not as down on him as some are so I wouldn't mind having him around as long he doesn't end up platooning with Kemp. That said I think Paul could serve much the same role at the league minimum if we could deal Pierre.

According to MLB.com's Ken Gurnick, the Dodgers are very close to a deal that would bring free agent reliever Guillermo Mota back to Los Angeles. Mota, 35, posted a 4.11 ERA in 57 innings for the Brewers in '08 after coming over from the Mets in a deal for Johnny Estrada.

http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/01/dodgers_mota_close_to_deal.html

Mota would be in line for... something. I guess its a guaranteed deal.

As BH said, Grich was highly regarded when he played, why they forgot about him five years after he retired was shocking. Whitaker was not as good but he never should have been snubbed as badly as he was. HOF voters just don't like 2nd baseman. That Maz got in, is still shocking to me.

151
Bobby Grich may have to become the next Joe Gordon.

Diamond Lueng has winter league updates. Well, no actual stats, but a comment from Furcal that he wants Manny back, and if the Dodgers do re-sign him. Furcal said he can score 140 runs.
http://blogs.pe.com/prosports/2009/01/dodgers-winter-league-updates-1.html

150
There must be some fear that with an all-kid bullpen the rapscallions will spend too much time horsing around in full view of ToyCannon's seats. We simply must have a veteran to keep the peace out there; otherwise the trainers will have to spend too much time treating noogies and purple nurples.

Mota
2008: 4.52 FIP, 4.40 x-FIP, $200k dollar value
2007: 4.35 FIP, 4.32 x-FIP, ($900k) dollar value (deficit)

154
And yes I used Google to confirm the speeling of "noogies."

Dodgers since 1900 who have scored 140 or more runs in a season:

Babe Herman, 143, in 1930.

He finished FIFTH in the NL that year in runs scored.

I wonder how the voters will treat Officer Jeff Kent, LAPD.

Wow, the Eddy Curry thing is INSANE. Won't link it to the NFSW nature. But wow. Just wow.

158
Even with your warning my head nearly exploded when I clicked the link from Google.

154
I mixed up the Fangraphs dollar values. Mota had a negative dollar value in 2008, not 2007.

Nothing you wouldn't see in any federal penitentiary.

So Madison Square Garden is a Federal penitentiary?

162

I think it's been called worse.

wallach graduated from my high school the year before i started there. by the time i was a junior or so, he'd come back to our practices with a couple buddies from cal state fullerton. they threw some BP or something and showed us a little of what they were getting in their practices... i bet he'd be a good manager.

119 If Young played SS and they moved Furcal to 2B, that could help keep Furcal healthy without the wear and tear of SS.

But one of the reasons Furcal favored Los Angeles over Atlanta was because he did not want to move to 2nd base.

165 Except that Furcal is the better player, offensively and defensively. Its like making A-Rod move to 3rd to accommodate Derek Jeter. Sure you could do it, but why would you?

not sure how 2B is less stressful/physically tricky than SS... but, hey, maybe it is... on another front, i just read where jim rice was watching "the young and the restless" a half hour before the HOF vote was announced... that puts it over the top for me. they should've voted dwight evans, not rice. i'm guessing evans is a general hospital retiree... young and the restless blows.

Oh man. The Deadspin entry on the Eddy Curry vs the limo driver case has a few hilarious comments, one that I'd like to repost here but may get in trouble for. But it's on Deadspin, comment referring to HAL from 2001 made me laugh.

You know, Michael Young isn't coming to LA so I'm not sure why we're talking about that at length, but hey, if it's fun for ya carry on. But it ain't happening.

It didn't take long at all for derision of the Mets' awful new commemorative patch to spread web-wide:

http://tinyurl.com/7z67v3

And more ideas that failed:

http://thesportshernia.typepad.com/blog/2009/01/other-inventive-patches-found-in-mets-brainstorming-lab.html

170

Hilarious.

Mota is official:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2009/01/dodgers-agree-t.html

I love the move, mostly because it means Juan Cruz isn't signing here.

Let's see what Tsao is up to.

173

I called his cell earlier. Said he was just hanging out at home tonight.

172 Elsewhere in the same post:

Dodgers finalizing SP search and "are focused on a group of free agents including Jon Garland, Randy Wolf and Braden Looper."

He must like 24.

Predictions on financial terms of Mota deal?

177 Prediction: 1 yr/$2.25M

1 year/$1 million.

Other RHP relievers signed this offseason (non-closers):

Kyle Farnsworth (Royals) - 2/$9.25m (+ an option)
LaTroy Hawkins (Astros) - 1/$3.5m
Doug Brocail (Astros) - 1/$2.75m (+ option)
Bob Howry (Giants) - 1/$2.75m
Chan Ho Park (Phillies) - 1/$2.25m
Chad Gaudin (Cubs) - 1/$2m
Jorge Julio (Brewers) - 1/$950k
Scott Proctor (Marlins) - 1/$750k

I'm guessing Mota signed for at least $2m for one year.

180 Dodgers are going let Mota be the highest paid reliever on the team? Why not just bring back Proctor or Biemel?

$2 million for someone who could end up the worst arm out of the pen.

Please let it be Looper, out of that bunch.

183
Please let them all get injured tomorrow.

All just a waste of money.

We better not give any of those mules more than one year.

Whats the point of having a farm system if you can't trust it to produce players?

Before I read all your guesses, I was thinking 1y/$1.5mil. I guess I'll up it to 1y/$1.75 mil.

I predict Mota will come in between 1.6-2million, perhaps some incentives, maybe an option for a second year. No proof on it but I do think Biemel would have been a better choice, but don't think he was a Torre favorite. Torre liked to use him as a lefty specialist rather than a good set-up man who was also left handed.

Wonder if Dodgers are in the mix for Pettit, seems to make more sense since he only wants a year rather than two or three years with Looper Wolfe or Garland.

175 (addendum) 185 :)

I love the "mule" term. So apt.

And to correct: in my mind, I was actually thinking that the blog referenced "finalizing search for the mule SP role" ... but personally, I'm still holding out hope for a relatively affordable Sheets in a "non-mule" SP role.

Penny gone, Mota back. Plaschke must be thrilled.

Bill Plaschke would make a horrible GM.

mota - jokah

191
As horrible as he is as a columnist?

193 Even worse, he'd fill the team up with guys who would let him use as a source.

The street sale price of the Los Angeles Times went up to 75 cents (from 50) all over town today, judging by my email.

You gotta be kidding me. 75 cents to buy a paper that is cutting back on all fronts!?

http://www.laobserved.com/archive/2009/01/lat_now_50_more.php

195

You always have to pay a premium when you buy off the streets. You're putting food on tables, yo.

196 Not anymore, I'm not!

Jon, sorry I'm late, but when Reggie Smith makes the HOF then the continuing charade might be something other than continuing charade. It would otherwise help if the one local chapter didn't think that Jason Bartlett was the Rays' MVP last year.

198
Call me crazy, but I don't understand your post.

195
Try to call the LA Times and see if you can get a deal on delivery. I got solicited via phone and I get Thursday through Sunday delivered -- in San Diego -- for only 25 cents per week.

199
Wow, that may be the cheapest thing on Earth.

200
I asked them to go to 24 cents per week, but I was rebuffed.

We have reached Mad TV levels with these 24 jokes.

The Detroit Lions have revealed that they will draft Tyler Hansbrough with the first pick of the draft, and covert him to wide receiver.

202
That's a good sign to stop then. :)

I'm going dark.

I actually watched some of 24 tonight, because I wanted to see if they explained about Almeida and because I noticed Carly Pope joined the show. She is puuuurrrty.

539 ballots were cast by Active and Honorary BBWAA members for enshrinement in the Hall of Fame in 2009.

For the 2008 postseason awards 28 and 32 ballots (2 active members from each AL and NL team respectively) were cast.

Believe it or not, when I saw the following headline I thought Jason Schmidt had decided to pitch in the WBC.

Schmidt headlines US staff additions

http://tinyurl.com/8apab8

207
It would be tragically comical if Jason Schmidt was somehow healthy enough to pitch in the WBC, then somehow hurt himself during the tournament so he was lost for the Dodger season.

I forgot Jason Schmidt was on our team.

This is not the first time it has happened.

One reason teams may be waiting to sign some those older free agents, the number of incoming 3rd and 4th year players entering their arbitration years.

Sorry for the length of this list but here are just some of the players eligible for making a nice sum of cash this year.

Player/Pos./Service Time

Conor Jackson inf 3.067
Nick Markakis of 3.000
Jonathan Papelbon rhp 3.064
Kevin Youkilis 1b 4.093
Kevin Gregg rhp 5.002
Bobby Jenks rhp 3.090
Garrett Atkins inf 4.072
Huston Street rhp 4.000
Justin Verlander rhp 3.002
Joel Zumaya rhp 3.000
Jeremy Hermida of 3.033
Dan Uggla inf 3.000
Chone Figgins inf 5.145
Mike Napoli c 2.151 *
Ervin Santana rhp 3.104
Jared Weaver rhp 2.129 *
Jonathan Broxton rhp 3.020
Andre Ethier of 2.153 *
Russell Martin c 2.150 *
Prince Fielder 1b 3.068
Corey Hart of 3.038
John Maine rhp 3.013
Joe Blanton rhp 4.016
Cole Hamels lhp 2.143 *
Ryan Howard 1b 3.145
Ryan Madson rhp 5.027
Shane Victorino of 3.092
Jayson Werth of 5.102
Zach Duke lhp 3.094
Paul Maholm lhp 3.037
Nate McLouth of 3.056
Rick Ankiel of 5.033
Chris Duncan of 2.144 *
Ryan Ludwick of 3.109
Heath Bell rhp 3.099
Erik Bedard lhp 5.171
Felix Hernandez rhp 3.060
Dioner Navarro c 3.103
B.J. Upton of 2.126 *
Ryan Zimmerman 3b 3.032

210 BTW you can get a complete list at Cots Baseball Contracts, whidh is where I got my highlighted player list.

I love the youth movement by baseball in general. Teams need to realize that it is in their best interest to build from within. Only a few elite players can contribute as they get older. Manny is one of those players, which is why I desperately want the Dodgers to re-sign him.

I wish we would sign Ben Sheets, because he is extremely undervalued right now, but I understand that will not happen. I honestly think 80% of DT posters or more have the mindset to be better GMs than the staff we have in place right now. I remember when I was advocating we trade for BJ Upton and Dustin Pedroia before teams understood how good they were, and I think the majority of my fellow DTers felt the same way.

I will give some credit to Ned and the Dodger staff for understanding that it is time for the youngsters in my age group to take over. But I still feel like we are wasting resources, and we frankly should be the best team in the National League. It is time to take over, simple as that!!

212

I commend you and other "youngsters" in having the foresight to see the value in players before us older guys get it.

I just wonder if perhaps, just maybe, there are others following other teams who just might see the value in the Pedroias and Uptons of the world as you do.

It's really easy to sit on the sidelines as we all do and say, trade for this player, give up that player, etc etc. But it takes two (or sometimes more) to make a trade, and if your counterpart also sees the value in the new and upcoming Pedroias or Uptons of the world, trades may not be so easily done.

What you say sounds nice if we lived in a vacuum and could structure deals any way we see fit without interference from other teams' scouts or GMs.

213 - thank you for the injection of sanity

I honestly think 80% of DT posters or more have the mindset to be better GMs than the staff we have in place right now.

I think 100% of DT posters have valid opinions at one time or another; and sometimes those opinions seem to me, to be better than the chosen direction of the team (with the very limited visibility I have of what the team is actually capable of doing). That being said, while I love listening to all the DT posters and learn much from their various and competing points of view, there isn't one of us that I would want to hire for GM

Therefore I humbly place myself in the less qualified 20%

there isn't one of us that I would want to hire for GM

Wow. You've got high standards. Unless you think most current MLB GMs are qualified, in which case your standards are low. Or maybe they're paradoxically high and low at the same time.

Setting aside the "political" aspects of the GM job, the GM job is pretty easy, especially since most owners are neanderthals who let GMs make dumb decisions based on antiquated player evaluation criteria.

As long as GMs are allowed to hire players based on "veteraness", "havingbeentherebeforeness", "heart", "grittiness", etc. etc. etc., one doesn't really have much of a leg to stand on when trying to argue that the bar for GMs has been set really high.

I do think it is far easier to watch from the sidelines and say how easy someone else's job is - and that applies to nearly every field. Baseball GMs and Football coaches never seem to get a break in that regard.

I don't think most GMs are successful, but I think by and large that is because the job is far more difficult than you give it credit for.

You know, you might make a similar case that outside of the "political" aspects of the job being President isnt all that hard either...

But I still feel like we are wasting resources, and we frankly should be the best team in the National League.

Its hard to think the best team in the NL would want to have Guillermo Mota pitching for it.

You talk about a strength (bullpen) going to a weakness in 1 off season:

Out:
Takashi Saito
Joe Beimel

In:
Claudio Vargas
Guillermo Mota

Braves sign Derek Lowe 4years 60 million.

I think my bigger point is not so much that the GM job isn't hard, but rather that you don't have to be very skilled/talented/knowledgeable to carry it out. In fact, you can be a complete moron and fail miserably, but still keep your job.

In most cases, it seems that getting and keeping a GM job is much more about who you know than what you know.

I do think the GM job is difficult if success is defined in terms of building championship teams. There are too many variables outside a GM's control for that to be a reasonable expectation.

HOWEVEVER: there are important variables that are under a GM's control, and from what I can tell, most GMs do a bad job addressing them.

219 - officially signed, or merely offered that deal? What pick would LA get?

With the Braves signing of Lowe, a type A, what picks do we get?

Throw in Cory Wade's likely regression...--> The Dodgers are going to need big seasons out of Elbert/Troncoso to keep the bullpen in tacts.

With Kershaw/Billingsley/Kuroda/???/????, the bullpen will get plenty of use this season. I can see why Manny is so important this offseason bc the pitching has taken a serious step backwards.

MLBtraderumors.com has this up right now:

According to David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Braves agreed to terms with Derek Lowe on a four-year, $60MM deal. For all the talk of the Braves' failed offseason, they've added three quality starting pitchers.

Earlier this morning there were the same rumors from ESPN and SI.

221 ,222
Braves have the 7th pick. Since we would get the 2nd rounder, the worst that could possibly be is pick #62. It depends on where the remaining Type A/B free agents sign.

224 - Yep.

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/stories/2009/01/13/braves_lowe.html

225
Also, the sandwich pick we get will at worst be #45

The Braves had a top 15 protected pick, so I'm guessing the pick will come in the 31-42 range or so.

223 The Braves first rounder is protected, since they draft #7. I believe we would get their 2nd rounder, as well as a supplemental pick.

Much better than if we had gotten the Mets pick, I think.

We get the Braves' 2nd round pick (7th in the 2nd round). Probably in the upper 40s overall.

225. Do we also get a sandwhich pick for his type A status.

231. nevermind

229
The Mets already signed K-Rod, who ranks higher than Lowe, so we would have got their 2nd rounder too, 18 picks lower than Atlanta's.

Oops, wrong #. Should've figured folks here would be quick on the draw!

Wow, I'm late! Upper 40's might be a high estimate.

225 - You say that's worst case scenario. Does pick #62 represent ATL's current 2nd round pick, or are there other factors that might push that up? I don't think Atlanta would be in line to sign any further FA's of a higher standing than Lowe.

LA also gets a sandwich pick too?

So far there have been 9 Type A/Bs signed, and given that there are 33 picks in round 1 (there were 3 unsigned 2008 1st rounders), the best the Braves' 2nd rounder could be is #49.

The best sandwich pick we could get for Lowe is #37, behind the Mariners (Ibañez), Rockies (Fuentes), and D-Backs (Hudson, thus far unsigned).

In fact, we're pretty locked in to #37 since we get that for Manny anyway if he doesn't return.

NPUT

I withdraw from contention for any GM jobs, but I renew my strenuous objection to the callous and hasty way my application for the position of Surgeon General was dismissed.

237 - Thanks, that explains it very well.

Comment from MLBTR: And on Thursday/Friday I hope we see the headline "Braves sign Andruw Jones" So there is at least one person out there who wants Jones on his team.

222 their second rounder plus supp 1st.