Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Well. How did we get here?
Too many of the talented players on this 2007 Dodger team got hurt, and too many slumped - whether by means unlucky or deserved. (Follow that link - it will blow your mind.) In the end, that meant there weren't enough talented players to avoid falling to the bottom of the wild card race.
Now what?
Catcher: For all the complaining about Russell Martin playing too much, even in July he posted an .858 OPS. Like almost every other Dodger, he is struggling in August (.635), but as much as people have a hard time believing it, there's nothing to indicate that the Dodgers would have more victories in 2007 if Martin had rested more in the first four months. Even conceding he might be a bit stronger now (though we don't know that it's true), the extra value he'd have would be negated by the extra playing time given to Mike Lieberthal, who has one extra-base hit in 62 plate appearances this season.
Ultimately, the lesson may just be that if a catcher is your team's MVP, your team needs help.
Remainder of 2007: When rosters expand in September, the Dodgers will carry three catchers (Chad Moeller appears to have been acquired from the Cincinnati organization for that purpose) and have more flexibility to use Lieberthal as a pinch-hitter. If the Dodgers fall out of contention, Martin will get some days off.
2008: Martin will finally reach the ripe old age of 25. The future is bright. Hopefully, he'll have a stronger supporting cast.
First base: The Dodgers made a strong statement of faith in James Loney by not trading for Mark Texeira of the Rangers. Loney has up and down stretches, but the aggregate product (125 career OPS+) is all that Dodger fans could have hoped for in 2007. Little's elevation of Loney to the No. 3 slot in the batting order, when Loney's most recent statistics might have argued against it, reflects the confidence the organization has in him.
Remainder of 2007: Pennant-race panic might put Loney on the bench from time to time, and there's always the possibility he'll have a disappearing September like Andre Ethier had last year. But for the most part, the Dodgers appear to have decided that the future at first base has arrived.
2008: Again, Ethier provides a cautionary tale with how his sophomore season began, but expect Loney to be entrenched as the starter.
Second base: While Jeff Kent has never been an ideal cleanup hitter for this team, and while his range at second base is about the size of an Easy Bake Oven, Kent's continued offensive strength at the position is hardly something the team should spit at.
Remainder of 2007: Kent needs 134 more plate appearances for his $9 million 2008 option to automatically vest. Barring a serious injury, that will happen.
2008: Assuming Kent doesn't retire this year, 2008 will be his last season. What would be lovely would be for the Dodgers to reduce their reliance on Kent by being able to drop him to the No. 6 spot in the batting order and being able to rest him on a weekly basis. They have a perfect opportunity to break in a new infielder without pressuring him, the way they have broken in players like Ethier and Loney. (Why, by the way, are people so confident that Tony Abreu is faking an injury? Why can't he just be hurt? Why couldn't he have been faking being healthy (like others have done) before he was optioned? Are the Dodgers so reliable in knowing exactly what's going on with their players' bodies?)
Shortstop: We'll never know what might have been had Rafael Furcal not collided with Jason Repko in Spring Training. What has happened, so far anyway, is arguably the worst full season offensively of Furcal's major-league career - an 85 OPS+ - though he still mixes in outstanding defensive plays with his errors.
Remainder of 2007: Chin-Lung Hu, the highly touted defensiveman who has come on to have an .893 OPS in AA and AAA combined this season, should get to be Furcal's caddy in September.
2008: Furcal will be 30 in the final year of his Dodger contract and looking to come back strong. Hu should begin the season further honing his skills in Las Vegas.
Third base: The thing I can't quite figure out is how Nomar Garciaparra is still batting .281. Forget the fact that his on-base and slugging percentages aren't much higher - he just rarely seems to do more than a 1 for 4.
I have to think that Ned Colletti felt victimized that Andy LaRoche got hurt just when he looked ready to be promoted for good. Colletti had to be counting on LaRoche after trading Wilson Betemit. I don't believe there's any way Colletti wanted Ramon Martinez to be starting as many games as he has the past two weeks.
Remainder of 2007: Just waiting for LaRoche to get well. Otherwise, it's praying for Garciaparra to have something left. Garciaparra has a .844 OPS the past 28 days, including .422 over the past seven.
2008: LaRoche should be ready to assume this position, but a) he has been injured three times in the past two seasons and b) by federal decree, Dodger rookies don't get to start in April. No one will have high expectations for Garciaparra, but short of an Alex Rodriguez pursuit by the Dodgers, the incumbent will probably get the Opening Day call, with LaRoche poised to take over after May Day.
Left field: Luis Gonzalez, who turns 40 on September 3, has killed the Dodgers since the All-Star Break (.501 OPS).
Remainder of 2007: The Dodgers will hope for some September veteran miracles from Gonzalez, but also will mix younger players like Delwyn Young into the lineup (along with Ethier, when Matt Kemp is in right).
2008: As much as Gonzalez hurt the Dodgers this summer, he has done them a huge favor as far as the future. It was one thing for Colletti to ignore the younger Garciaparra's second-half struggles in 2006; it will be impossible to ignore Gonzalez's. If Gonzalez wants to have a role in baseball greater than Mark Sweeney's, it will probably be as a designated hitter. Now that he has proven himself, Ethier should be the full-timer, with Young backing him up.
Center field: Juan Pierre's 30th birthday is Tuesday. He's looking like an old 30 to me. While Pierre has hardly been the worst player on the Dodgers during their recent struggles, this season reinforced the fact that he is not good, and will not be good.
Remainder of 2007: The fact that Kemp and Gonzalez have tailed off means that no matter how dissatisfied Little has become with Pierre, Little lacks that final impetus to bench Pierre and end his consectutive game streak. Only extreme performances by all three of those mentioned will change that.
2008: Yes, the Dodgers could form a starting outfield without Pierre, but it won't happen.
Right field: At age 25, Ethier has a 113 OPS+. Kemp, though again struggling with strike zone judgment (though several Dodger Thoughts commenters argue that no player gets rougher treatment from the umpires), is at 117. Kemp turns 23 on September 23.
Remainder of 2007: Ethier will get the majority of the playing time.
2008: The Dodgers need to commit to Kemp as an everyday player, through thick and thin, because of the ongoing potential of the thick. Having hung onto him through two trading summers, Colletti and Little will do this, I suspect.
April 2008 lineup:
Furcal, SS
Martin, C
Loney, 1B
Kent, 2B
Ethier, LF
Garciaparra, 3B
Kemp, RF
Pierre, CF
July 2008 lineup:
Furcal, SS
Martin, C
Loney, 1B
Kemp, RF
Ethier, LF
Kent, 2B
Pierre, CF
LaRoche, 3B
In my opinion, there's a lot to like there.
Starting pitching: Brad Penny is having a career year. Chad Billingsley's bad starts are getting better, and his good starts are getting great. Derek Lowe is learning to pitch hurt. Mark Hendrickson's ERA swelled to 5.20, and Brett Tomko (5.49 ERA, 80 ERA+) is about to be caught by ex-Dodger Edwin Jackson (5.84 ERA, 78 ERA+), who has a 2.97 ERA since the All-Star break. (Jackson might not have a better career than Tomko, but at least he's on the upswing.)
Remainder of 2007: Unless the Dodgers attempt to pull a 2003 Jackson by promoting red-hot James McDonald (3.15 ERA, 143 strikeouts in 114 2/3 innings) from AA Jacksonville, the Dodgers will muddle through with their existing five, plus some spot starts from the likes of D.J. Houlton, Eric Stults, and maybe even Randy Wolf or Hong-Chih Kuo if they're able to get some work in.
2008: Looking at the projected batting orders for 2008, there are few question marks. With LaRoche as a stand-in for Garciaparra and Pierre the immovable object, you can already fill out that batting order. Such is not the case for the starting rotation.
As much as it didn't end up working out this year, the Dodgers will have little choice in such an injury-plagued position but to attack with numbers. Penny, Lowe, Billingsley and Jason Schmidt will be the front four, but only Billingsley doesn't have injury questions. You'll be able to knock me over with a feather if Colletti doesn't non-tender Hendrickson and buy out Tomko's 2008 option for $1 million, but that still leaves a spot in the rotation to fill - not to mention backups to have in place.
Help is coming from the minors - the Dodgers could perhaps try to sneak Houlton through the No. 5 spot until McDonald is ready for promotion. (Too bad Scott Elbert lost 2007 to injury, and Greg Miller lost 2007 to the wilds.) Colletti can also buy out Wolf's $9 million 2008 option for $500,000 and then see if he will come to Spring Training on a lower-priced deal. And Hong-Chih Kuo will give it another go. But that's not going to be enough depth to satisfy the GM. As much as the offense has struggled this month, I expect starting pitching to be priority one for the Dodgers this offseason.
Bullpen: When it's not overworked, the Dodgers simply have one of the best.
Remainder of 2007: Um, try not to overwork the bullpen.
One thing is that with September fewer than three weeks away, we're finally about to see Jonathan Meloan (2.08 ERA, 81 strikeouts, 54 baserunners in 57 minor-league innings).
2008: Four possibilities for Takashi Saito: 1) he defies the odds for a third season in a row, 2) he moves into a setup role, 3) age finally captures up with him, 4) he retires feeling good about himself. I'm going to guess he doesn't walk away from the game before the game walks away from him.
Jonathan Broxton, Joe Beimel and Scott Proctor will be back, no doubt joined by Meloan. Rudy Seanez will probably retire. Yhency Brazoban and Chin-Hui Tsao will try to come back from injuries. The bullpen will be in flux a bit, but it's not something to worry about now.
Prognosis
Remainder of 2007: In a two-week stretch, the NL West became Arizona's to lose. And that's still possible. The Diamondbacks are not the '27 Yankees, and they blew a 5-1 eighth-inning lead today against Washington. Meanwhile, the wild-card race is a jumble.
More than anything, perhaps, it was Derek Lowe's bad-hip start on Saturday that has made me lose faith that the Dodgers have it in them to come back in 2007. I'm not giving up - I'm already disappointed, so there's no disappointment to avert - but this ship has taken on a lot of water. The offense is simply going to have to pull a 180, at a minimum not letting any good pitching performances the Dodgers do get go to waste.
2008: We know Arizona is going to be a rival for a division title. We know Colorado is on the rise. We know the Padres will be tough if Jake Peavy and Chris Young carry on to next season, though the Padres don't appear to have the younger reinforcements the other three teams have. And for all we know, replacing Barry Bonds in the San Francisco lineup next season will be Alex Rodriguez. The NL West is ascending. The Dodgers are keeping up as well as any team, but because so much is dependent on the vagaries of pitching health, essentially there is going to be no predicting who will win.
2009: Just fooling around ...
Young, LF
Martin, C
Loney, 1B
Kemp, CF
Ethier, RF
LaRoche, 3B
Abreu, 2B
Hu, SS
Santana/Penny/Billingsley/McDonald/Kershaw, P
Same as it ever was? Maybe not ...
Joe Girardi wouldn't lie to me would he?
I thought Girardi was fantastic as a commentator. A FOX commentator who actually does his homework? Sssh, better not tell the network brass or they'll hire Scooter the talking baseball to take his place.
I've said it before, I'll say it again: Throw all the money in the world at Santana after 2008. I don't care if it takes A-Rod money or even more to get him signed. Do it. Teams keep signing free-agent patch-up jobs like Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, and A.J. Burnett, while losing sight of the fact that the truly elite free agents -- the future Hall of Famer types -- are the signings likely to pay off the best, and are a much better bet to be worth the money.
And although you studiously avoided mentioning him in the context of 2008, it might be noted that the Minotaur will be starting 2008 in AA, and is potentially only a good first half away from joining the Dodger rotation.
8 - I don't see anything to indicate that Colletti and Little won't go with the July 2008 lineup I posted above.
It's a little-known fact that Jon's wife is a dead ringer for Tabitha Soren.
1. Hendrickson and Tomko are terrible
2. McDonald's already 22 (not far from 23), so he's not young enough to scar for life if he fails
3. Fans want to see some new blood to spark the current lull
4. He doesn't have quite the same burden of being a "can't-miss prospect" that guys like Jackson had
His inexperience as a pitcher is the only reason I could see management wanting to wait it out.
When was the last time the Dodgers fielded an all-homegrown starting lineup in a game? Because it could happen next month, if we fall out of the wild card race. (I'm assuming the answer is "never," but I guess it's possible that it happened before.)
C Martin
1B Loney
2B Abreu
3B LaRoche
SS Hu
LF Young
CF Kemp
RF Ethier
P Billingsley
(I know I'm stretching it with Ethier, but the Dodgers are the only MLB team he's played for, and he played for us in the minors too.)
I find it hard to believe that Coletti will not now be tempted to right the ship and find some lumber and some arms in the off season.
Who? Who knows?
I personally don't like Delwyn leading off, as he simply doesn't get on base enough. I like Laroche leading off, or if he can ever learn to play D and hit consistently, Denker (who is currently leading off for the 66ers with his .382 OBP)
I was thinking about that and I don't know if I want any of them. Hunter is old, Druw might be on the decline and I don't think Rowand is as good as he is showing this year.
C Yeager
1B Garvey
2B Lopes
SS Russell
3B Cey
LF Buckner
CF Burke
RF Lacy
P Lewallyn
The next day, Sutton was the pitcher and Hale was in center
12 Penny is signed through 2008 with an option for 2009. Lowe is a FA after 2008 with no probability of resigning since he is a BORA$$ client. Ned should try to extend Penny's contract at $15 million a year.
I wouldn't even want Lowe beyond next year. He's gunna be like 35 and his hip condition looks to be an ongoing thing.
I think out of all 3, Hunter will probably age the best.
C - Piazza
1B - Karros
2B - Ingram
SS - Offerman
3B - Hansen
LF - Ashley
CF - Mondesi
RF - Rodriguez
P - Astacio
a place that serves smoothies. My favorite is the Caribbean Passion.
I'm 99% that 1995 game was the last game for the Dodgers featured all nine players who were originally signed by the Dodgers.
It gets easy to check later on. Especially with Shawn Green getting a lot of starts to eliminate a lot of years.
It is my understanding that with the season ending injury that Fukudome had, that he will not be able to post to the US this offseason.
Would the Dodgers still want to pay a premium for an MLB Unproven player coming off of surgery?
Hasn't Ethier shown he should be part of our future already?
Ideally, they could pawn off Nomar and Pierre without having to eat too much of their contract (even if they don't get anything good back) and free up some money to sign some quality players (A-Rod? Hunter?). As it is, we're not losing enough payroll to be able to plug in a power hitter, but cutting that deadweight would do wonders for the line-up.
You know, like really good teams often have.
We're just predicting things here. And that's my prediction.
I'm just so sorry for LaRoche, who has had several times he could have taken over, but (like many young players) is always fighting injuries. I hope this hasn't begun to happen to Abrue, and god forbid, Hu.
I'm a huge Ethier fan,have been from day one, and think he is going to be one of the top hitters in the league in the next year or so. I also think he'll hit for a lot more power in the future than people think at this point. I like him better in right field than left field defensively also. He's a good left fielder, but potential gold glove in right. Gotta give him huge credit for hanging in there and keeping his head up this season with how Grittle has jacked him in and out of the line up and basically tried to break his confidence. What a difference a manager who recognizes talent could have made for him, but he's come out on top this year in spite of it. I can't understand why Grittle would be so hard a guy who seems like a really nice hard working kid. If he's mad because he tried to play with the shoulder injury at the end of last season, he needs to move on and get over it. I can't think of too many rookies, or players in general, that wouldn't try to suck it up and play through it.
I still think Kemp can be a great player, he just needs to learn to be more patient at the plate and hit more than the fast ball consistently. He definitley has gold glove potential defensively in center. Have to remember he's only 22 and hasn't played baseball all his life like most of the others.
Next Sunday night is St. Louis vs. Chicago. The Sunday after that will be the Dodgers at New York.
The real problem for Tony Abreu is that one of the people who thinks he is faking an injury is apparently Ned Colletti.
## Tony Abreu was placed on the temporary inactive list because apparently there is a question about the extent of his abdomen injury. ##
http://tinyurl.com/yore3y
C - Roseboro
1b - Hodges
2b - Neal
SS - Zimmer
3B - Gray
LF - Demeter
CF - Cimoli
RF - Snider
P - Newcombe
The player who kept messing things up in the first few days of the LA Dodgers was Pee Wee Reese, who was first signed by the Pirates and then went to the Red Sox organization.
I'll get to see Billingsley go for his third straight 1-0 loss against the Astros and Oswalt Monday and then on Thursday, bhsportsguy, Vishal, and I will get to watch One-leg Lowe face off against Wandy Rodriguez.
Luis Gonzales is still playing everyday for the Dodgers. Matt Kemp is not.
If Gonzo's not going to get benched this year for Kemp, then Nomar most certainly wont for LaRoche next year.
Nomar's got way more pull than Gonzo.
My Jamba Juice splurge pick: Peanut Butter Moo. My healthier favorite is the Banana Berry or Protein Berry Pizazz.
Well, I'm excited the Dodgers are on ESPN2 tomorrow for a change, even if it's a tough pitching matchup. I still have some manner of hope in this team but feel like this homestand is the "now or never" time to turn it around, or fuhgedaboutit.
Good write-up above, Jon, the right mix of reality, looking to the future, and still a bit of hope for now.
Don't you mean The Crossroads of America?
Man, it's been a long time since I've been in an Orange Julius. After all the JJ talk earlier, I stopped by the local branch -- they were out of my usual Matcha Green Tea Blast, so I went with a Strawberry Nirvana that turned out tasty.
I can't think of Jamba without thinking of Natalie Portman in the SNL sketch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46bKh2Xl72U
If Matt Kemp were a third baseman, or if LaRoche were healthy, Nomar would not be playing as much right now.
I can't predict when Colletti might or might not make a trade. He and Little certainly don't turn to the kids as fast as you or I might. But the fact is, in 1 3/4 seasons under those two, the current lineup already has kids at catcher, first base and right field. Adding a fourth kid in the outfield in 2008 is a given. The willingness to "rest" Nomar every week is an indication that he will be on a shorter leash for 2008, and that it's LaRoche's position to claim. That would make the lineup 5/8ths kids.
John from Cincinnati left us as it came to us. Thoroughly baffling.
1/2 of a 6oz. can frozen OJ concentrate
1/2 cup milk
1/2 cup water
1/4 cup sugar
1/2 tsp. vanilla
5 or 6 large ice cubes
Combine all ingredients in a blender and blend until smooth. Makes about 3 cups.
The recipe card I copied this from is in my mom's handwriting. She died in 1976 so that will give you some idea how old the recipe is. It's excellent, by the way.
Did he get any chances? I read the scouting reports here from some of commentators about his inabilitiy to handle the position so I was curious as to how he did.
Salud!
This is the second time that Ned publicly has questioned a player's integrity.
I thought he was sent down because he still had options, then he is hurt, then he is not...maybe. Is there some definitive info that he has not reported because of something other than an injury?
Thanks, I will also be giving this a go.
Smoothies in general are my normal meal.
Soy milk, honey, banana, 3 frozen soy milk cubes blended together is my normal breakfeast. The Magic Bullet is perfect for a small serving.
Nothing definitive, but that hasn't stopped Ned from publicly implying that Abreu is dogging it. The real story here is that Ned sees fit to publicly attack the integrity of his players. This is dumb on several fronts. It also makes me wonder if Ned has any feel at all for the job. Didn't Ned use to be a PR employee for the Cubs? His PR blunders are similar to those made by the McCourts. These people just don't get it. They're always reacting. Very seldom do they anticipate well. I can see why Ned is frustrated that Abreu hasn't been available. They really needed him. But Ned isn't responding well to a testy situation. That's becoming a trend.
Sorry, I didn't see it. Not up with the blogs. Now it's time for the press to quote Boras defending Abreu, if he hasn't already. The Ned-Boras feud will flare up again.
He's either hurt or he's not. But I have a real hard time believing he's doing this because he was sent down. To sum up, Ned should probably just shut his mouth and handle it quietly.
Amen.
Thanks.
In your estimation, what are the chances, if any, that the Dodgers would trade Pierre in the off-season and eat most of his contract. That would be my fondest wish.
One more year of the guy. I can live with it. What's the alternative?
All apologies there, Lama.
Again, I realize I am hoping more than anything....
I don't know what to do about Kent if he's on the roster next year.
Don't make me go all Ogden Nash on you, Brock.
I've done it before and I'll do it again!
It's attitudes like this that make for poor detective partnerships, Bob.
I'm thinking I want to work alone like Rockford did. I'm already looking for a trailer by the beach.
"When a man's partner is killed, he's supposed to do something about it. It doesn't make any difference what you thought of him. He was your partner and you're supposed to do something about it. And it happens we're in the detective business. Well, when one of your organization gets killed, it's-it's bad business to let the killer get away with it, bad all around, bad for every detective everywhere."
Are we still going to the game tomorrow? I think Bob is going. We can corner him and steal his wallet.
I hope Terrence Austin gets good playing time as well.
BTW, I don't understand the title of the post. Could someone explain, please?
http://tinyurl.com/nzy3q
Was my introduction to the Heads, when I saw that video on MTV (back when they showed music videos), when I was in the 8th grade.
Okay, I'm gonna go take Bridget O'Shaughnessy out with me to see if we can find the meteor shower.
http://tinyurl.com/2q5eg7
But I doubt the Dodgers have such patience. They signed a flippin' out machine in center for 44 million. They are bound and determined to waste money and tread water.
Until Bob dies. Then I'll need you. Bob probably won't have much use for you at that point. Since he'll be dead.
Jim had people who helped, but he didn't have a partner and said several times that he didn't want one.
The only person who helped out Rockford that I would want on my side would be Beth Davenport as my attorney.
Yes, and that's a key difference that raised a red flag for me from the very beginning. The Dodgers almost certainly suspected Kuo was hurt even before he admitted it. Although he hit 91 a few times during his last start, his fastball was mostly at 88/89. Even I felt he was hurt and I'm just a fan. By the time Kuo admitted it they had already optioned him to Vegas. They immediately rescinded his option and placed him on the Major League DL. But when Abreu was optioned to Vegas and then claimed he had been playing hurt the last week in Los Angeles they not only didn't place him on the Major League DL, they didn't put him on any DL at all. And the excuse someone gave Diamond that the Dodgers didn't have anyone they wanted to promote seemed lame. Notice that didn't keep LaRoche from going on the DL. Instead they waited to see if Abreu would play. And when he didn't they placed him on the Restricted List. It's pretty clear someone didn't believe Abreu. And it looks like that someone is Ned.
Martin
Loney
Kent
LaRoche
Furcal
Ethier
Idiotic signing and a player that is a total nightmare
Kemp
vr, Xei
Ned signed an out machine while people begged him not to. People were smarter than he was. he messed up. Admit it, you mustache-having fraud.
On the other hand, as between partnering up with you or rotting in jail, Bob's future sounds better in the joint.
153. Never gonna happen.
2.81 era 41.2IP 33H 16bb 52K 1HR
Baseball really is a microcosm of the world.
Just how much value would JP have if Ned really felt it was a mistake and he wanted to move him this winter, if he went public and said that JP was his biggest mistake of the winter?
Let's use common sense here. A GM's job is not to admit his mistakes with the current roster, it hamstrings his ability for future moves if he makes any negative comments on his current roster.
"Son, these are briefs."
"The things I wear?"
"No legal briefs."
"But why are they so long?"
"They're as long as they have to be."
"Do you write any in comic book form?"
Anyway, here it is:
Picture (well worth it): http://www.roadsideattractions.ca/orange.htm
Review: http://tinyurl.com/26w4j7
Review: http://tinyurl.com/27lxog (fun)
162 I agree wholeheartedly, ToyCannon.
Welcome to LA, Ned. This ain't no disco, and it ain't no country club either.
Karl Rove is leaving the White House
The first thing he's gonna do when he leaves? Go kill something.
Juan Pierre went 7 for 13 against Roy Oswalt from 2003-2005. Then last year he was 2 for 14 against Oswalt.
>> The mystery surrounding Tony Abreu continues. He's still on Triple-A Las Vegas' "inactive list," an indication that the club doesn't buy his complaint of a lower abdominal injury made at the time of his demotion on July 18, otherwise he'd be on the disabled list. He's been tested for a sports hernia, but there's been no positive finding there. <<
http://tinyurl.com/2j839t
1. One of the best pitchers in baseball facing the worse hitting team in baseball in August.
2. The pitcher for the Dodgers has not received one run of support in his last two starts.
3. The hitter with the most power will be playing in NY and the 2nd hitter with the most power will be on the bench.
4. Somehow Ramon Martinez will get some at bats.
6. The current hottest hitter on the team will be a caddy for the worse hitter on the team at this moment.
I expect Houston Fans to be beating a path to the library as we speak.
But dude, where's number 5?
I need a 5!
What does "non-starter" mean?
I delete 5 due to Rule 6.
Why would a young infielder on a team desperate for infield help purposely keep himself out of a game? He could easily be on the major league roster instead of Young if he had kept playing.
Kind of neat. Maybe other (ahem) sportswriters will read it.
Maybe he's not very bright and a little to emotional.
Maybe he got bad advice from a vixen.
Just a couple of reasons why young men make bad decisions.
On the other hand maybe the old men in the Dodger guard are not very bright and a little to emotional.
Time will tell.
## The highest Dodgers pick still unsigned is fifth-rounder Kyle Blair, and it looks as if he'll stay that way. There have been virtually no negotiations between the two sides since June. ##
http://tinyurl.com/2j839t
Diamond Leung
>> The Dodgers remain in negotiations with pitcher Kyle Blair, the team's fifth-round draft pick who could sign by 9 p.m. Wednesday for a signing bonus worth about $1 million. <<
http://tinyurl.com/yore3y
So, which one should we believe?
Anyone think Josh is sending as many Dodger employee's as possible so that Ramon isn't left standing all by himself, or do people really show up to get an autograph of the worse utility player in baseball?
Leung, but that doesn't mean he'll get signed, but I do believe that they are still negotiating.
Players play hurt all the time. Maybe they shouldn't but they do. I think what bothers the Dodgers is that Abreu was happy to play with some pain as long as he was in the majors -- hence Colletti's comment about seeing Abreu running from first to third -- but as soon as the demotion occurred Abreu says he can't take the field anymore.
I'm not saying I believe Abreu on faith. But I'm certainly not sure I can trust the Dodgers on this one. And I'm definitely not in the mood for the Dodgers to hold a grudge against him, even if they now plan to get rid of him. Is it really worth not spending a month's worth of DL pay to preserve his trade value?
If the Dodgers just put him on the DL already, we'd have the whole situation resolved within the next couple of weeks at the latest. We'd know the truth, instead of playing this he said/he said game.
What's Blair's ceiling? $1 million sure seems like a pittance for a guy with any kind of solid major league rotation hopes.
But what happened, certainly when "MoneyBall" was published, is that sides were drawn, you either were stats or scouting, hard data or subjective observation on a given day. And I just don't think it is that easy.
Baseball Prospectus is great but does VORP accurately predict what is going to happen or how valuable something is after the fact.
The one thing about statistical analysis and the thing that makes it attractive, it allows those who are not connected to the game, e.g., not a scout or a front office person, a place to form opinions that then can be used to argue the pros and cons of that particular player. And in all the major sports, baseball is the one where you can to this with every player on the team.
That is where the "battles" with management or sportswriters begin, they have their set of biases and beliefs and sometimes appear not to accepting of this analysis while phrases like "great clubhouse guy", "good chemistry" sometimes fall upon deaf ears when it comes to those who just want to look at numbers.
Theo Epsteim is considered one of the new fangled GMs, he has the guru of stats, Bill James, in their employ, and still he signed Julio Lugo to long term contract. And has Boston done anything really revolutionary since those hires, to me, they did spend a lot more money but nothing revolutionary is being done in the players they sign or play, sometimes things work out, sometimes they don't.
Sorry for the long post but I just think that there is room for both, sure its nice when "one side" appears to get it but I do think that it would be better if when one or the other did, no one would make a big deal of it.
Unfortunately, I suspect that is the case. Placing him on the Restricted List instead of the DL (even the Minor League DL) was huge as CanuckDodger indicated. I suspect the relationship between Abreu and the Dodgers is in deep trouble. It wouldn't even surprise me if Colletti refused to call him up in September even if he declared himself healed. Admittedly, this is just my take on the situation but that's just how it looks to me.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/08/13/contreras.waivers/index.html
Why should an agent care at all about management? He doesn't work for them. And if he was such a negative influence on his clients and their reputations, nobody would sign with him.
UCLA lost one of their baseball recruits when Jason Heyward signed with the Braves for 2006 slot money, there are still 12 first round picks unsigned with Wednesday being the last day to sign any draft picks.
He has mostly played 2B in the last few years of his minor league career.
These are the facts as I see them:
1) Tony Abreu was hurt at one point. Both parties stipulate this.
2) About a week later, after trying to make a go of it, Abreu is optioned. Stipulated.
3) Abreu says he is still hurt. The Dodgers imply that he isn't.
Why am I supposed to believe the Dodgers?
193 -- Your second question answers your first.
194 -- I agree. That logic should apply, but it doesn't. We can't really know if it is even the front office that can make the decision or not. Ownership not only has to be willing to pay the above-slot money, but has to stand up to Bud Selig when Selig protests, because MLB ALWAYS protests above-slot bonuses, and vehemently protests really big above-slot bonuses. If McCourt is hoping to get an All-Star game at Dodger Stadium anytime soon, he isn't going to cross Selig.
WHIP is easy to explain, ERA is convoluted and hard to explain.
Now obviously OPS+ and VORP will take some time.
For one thing, I'll need to learn myself what they are.
Park factors in general, however, are easy to explain. He's been to both RFK and CBP, so that makes it especially easy.
Heaven knows what will happen when baseball tonight gets him. I predict he starts to see me as a very cranky old man.
Hochevar 2002 HS Draft - Unsigned - Number one overall Pick, 2006
Matthew Antonelli 2003 HS Draft - Unsigned - Number One of the Padres, 2006
Davic Price 2004 HS Draft - Unsigned - Number one overall pick, 2007
Joseph Savery 2004 HS Draft - Unsigned - Number 19 pick, 1st round, 2007
Alex White 2006 HS Draft - Unsigned - Possible top 10 pick in 2009
I would hate to see Alex White being the number one pick in 2009 and Blair the number one pick in 2010.
I think it is funny that we drafted a Loney and a Looney in 2002
I would love to have a time with a Loney/Looney combo to go with the Seanez/Saenz combo.
There would be more typos in posts here than we get with Eric "Stultz" and Luis "Gonzales".
That just seems like a pretty lame reason to me. I agree with Andrew and ToyCannon.
You have six more years before he see's you as a cranky old man.
Tiger - 13 majors in 44 professional major starts.
Nicklaus - 11 majors in 44 professional major starts.
While Tiger has won 13 majors, 24 other players have won the other 31 major titles, 19 of them have just won one.
For Jack, 22 other players won the other 33 major titles, 16 of them won just one major.
5 other players have won more than one major during Tiger's run, Phil and Vijay have won 3 majors.
6 players won multiple majors during Jack's first 44 majors, Lee Trevino and Gary Player won 4 each, Arnold Palmer won his last 3 majors during that time period.
Tiger has equaled Jack's wins at the British Open with 3, he trails Jack by 2 at both the U.S. Open and the Masters and by 1 at the PGA Championship.
The next 3 U.S. Opens will be played at courses where Tiger has had great success, Torrey Pines South where he was won multiple Buick Invitationals, Bethpage in New York where he won his second U.S. Open and then back at Pebble Beach where he won his first U.S. Open in record breaking style.
The first two were picked when Fox owned the team, Price, Savery and White were all picked in the teens. If waving a million dollars at these guys was all that it would take, why not draft them in the first round. There maybe some guys that just want to go to college. As the story goes, Chase Utley was offered first round money and decided to still go to college, stuff like that happens.
Maybe some team will decide to take 12-15 million dollars into the draft and make a real splash, but that day is not here yet and MLB is certainly doing its best to make sure it never does.
Welcome. You should look for some comments from "Retire 55". He is the site's president of the Run Grady Little Out of Town on a Rail Club.
"Fire" is definitely not on the top of my list of qualifications.
I'll check the numbers but my recollection is that the Red Sox and Yankee's went over slot last year to make up for their poor draft placement.
"No photo yet, but David Conley reports that Tiger Woods's baby girl, Sam, "was actually wearing a red jumper with a large Nike swoosh on it when they showed her on TV yesterday after Tiger won the PGA." And if you'll excuse me for a second, I need to go throw up."
At Home-.824 OPS; 5 HR
Road- .562 OPS; 1 HR
The season is too far along to call this a small sample size. Any explainations?
Plenty of GM's have had to fire their friends. It is the nature of the business, since most GM's tenure is much longer then a managers.
They really should though.
the thing about Nomar is that the hits he's getting are little singles no OPS at all. sigh [with a touch of anger in the sigh]
Then I would speak uncomprehnsibly for 10 straight hours afterwards.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/12/opinion/12pubed.html
--
Argh, this Abreu thing is getting out of hand. I don't know whose fault it is (my guess: everyone's) but I really hope they can resolve it because we a) need Abreu to help the team in September and b) don't want acrimony to ruin any chance of him having a future with this team. Seems like Colletti and Boras are both playing hard ball and Abreu may be caught in the middle. Just don't want the Dodgers to be petty about it.
Not true at all. It is no longer May/June, From July 1st on Nomar has had more multiple hit games then Russel Martin. Perception is not reality. Russel Martin has had one more extra base hit since the all-star break but only one home run to Nomar's 4.
Be a scapegoat, apparently
Jayson Stark on Johan Santana:
Let's see now. Barry Zito signed last winter for $18 million a year over seven years. He's a guy with 18 fewer wins and an ERA nearly a run and a half higher (1.45) than Santana's over the last four seasons.
Mark Buehrle signed last month for $14 million a year for four years -- a deal that swells to $15 million a year (and one extra season) if he gets traded. He's a guy with 14 fewer wins and an ERA more than a full run higher (1.05) than Santana's over the last four seasons.
So if that's what Zito and Buehrle are worth, what's Johan Santana worth? One large-market executive predicts he would be a $20-million-a-year man on the open market. But another large-market executive says he wouldn't be shocked if that estimate is low. Way low.
As in $25 million a year. For anywhere from five to seven years.
Which was not the lowest put up by a Dodger starter this year. Lowe had a 2 against the Mets.
The name is a happy coincidence, but does a newspaper, even the N.Y. Times, need a double-tiered (at least?) management structure for corrections?
Sounds to me like the NYT is using unsophisiticated software, or not using the software they have to full advantage. There should be a consistency checker, not just a spell checker in use. Alberto Gonzales' full name should appear in their custom dictionary; the consistency checker would find subsequent misspellings of "Mr. Gonzales".
When you factor in how better players are exponentially more valuable than mediocre ones, Santana probably should be a 30-35 million dollar player on the open market, if the Ted Lillys and Viceinte Padillas of the world are getting 10 million plus a year.
The also spelled Harry Coveleski's name as "Coveleskie" back in 1914. He was referred to as "the militant Pole."
It is a high risk / high reward deal.
He has made some questionable desicions, but tell me a manager who doesn't....
My theory is that Dodger fans whoo are fuming and throwing shoes at the T.V get upset when they see Little sitting stoic in the dugout while things fall apart....they miss the cathartic release they got to share with Tommy while he had his meltdowns...
Weather or not Little has anything to do with it, young players have for the most part thrived under his tenure....
I wonder what the Dodgers would have to give up to get Santana in trade? Start with Kershaw, I guess, but it would take a lot lot more, surely.
If I was a player like Santana or Arod I would do what Clemens does. Sign one year high dollar deals and then look around the next winter and make sure I'm only signing with teams who are going to be playing in October. Why lock yourself up for 5-6 years when you could end up playing poker in October if things don't go right with your team.
They could bounce back and forth between the Yankee's/Met's/RedSox to the highest bidder and the best team geared up for a long playoff run. No one wants to be the next Ernie Banks or Jeff Bagwell or Craig Biggio who never even got a chance to play for the ring. The money will be there, keep your options open.
I guess players don't do this because they're afraid of getting injured. But from a player's perspective I love the idea.
With the Dodgers talent base, signing those superstars are really the only way to improve the team, since those 8-10 million dollar a year players probably are going to be no better than what we have now.
I'm not as concerned with his offense as I am with his defense. He may have been promoted to protect the 1st base fans. If he can't stick at 3b he is not nearly as interesting. 35 errors in 100 odd games suggests lots of work for Mr Bell.
I want to do a Maurice Cheeks and put my arm around the kid who can't remember the words to the Anthem. It's that bad.
I can't explain why he hits better at home than on the road, but my understanding is that is not entirely uncommon for a lot of players. Maybe he sees the ball better at the Stadium?
With respect to Grady, I'm pretty apathetic, there haven't been a lot of moves he's made that I've questioned, given the way the team is built. Now, if Kent goes another 14 ABs without a hit and he's still in the line up, there might be a problem.
"The problem with a contract like that is that unless you have a tremendous amount of money to spend you have cut your own throat for the duration of the contract if the guy blows out his arm (or his knee or his hip, etc)."
The thing is, that's an exaggeration. With all the advances in baseball medicine, there's really no precedent for an elite pitcher blowing out his arm and remaining useless for the duration of a long contract. Santana has an impeccable health record, and has been around long enough that both his health and his ability are as close to guaranteed as it gets for a pitcher. Even Kevin Brown ended up paying some dividend on his contract, and Santana is no Kevin Brown. Even if Santana were to have major arm surgery, you'd still be likely to get several years of good pitching on the contract.
Really there is no precedent in baseball history for an elite young pitcher like Santana signing a big contract which ends up being not worth it. People are always citing examples of long-term pitcher signings that ended up being disasters, but not a single one of those examples is comparable to Santana in terms of age and ability.
Little has slowly come to recognize certain limitations and realities about the compsition of the team. Dropping Pierre to 7th -- while it won't have a great deal of effect -- is at least a demonstration that Little now understands that Pierre is a player of limited usefulness. The same goes for his diminishing use of Nomar and getting Ethier in the lineup 5-6 games per week, and certainly against all RH starters.
I agree with the commenter who suggested that it's Little's stocisim that drives the excitable fan crazy. He seems dull and ineffectual. But I'd rate him about average for a big league Manager. And...if nothing else...the guy was credited as the Baseball Trainer on Bull Durham.
That's good for something.
Its not correct at all.
Pierre's role (if he has one), would be a pinch runner or 5th OF'er.
Pierre in the starting lineup (for any team, mind you) is a disaster.
Saito will not be a free agent for another 4 years. His service time is basically equal to Broxton, despite his age.
I think Boston is an organization that knows what stats to value when promoting younger players (Pedroia, Papelbon), and also the big money to sign the better talent.
Boston's only real key mistake was trading away Renteria after only 1 year. Overreaction to just 1 bad season.
I think some of the high-end Japanese players get early free agency written into their deals, but I don't know for sure.
Hideki Matsui had a free agency clause written into his contract. But he could command it. I doubt Saito did.
The difference between Matsui and Saito in Japan would be like comparing Alex Rodriguez to Jake Westbrook.
I like Little myself, certainly more than Tracy. He's made some mistakes and has some stubbornness, but I think, with the cards he's been dealt, he's done a pretty decent job. Between injuries and being forcefed some erratic veterans, mixed in with inexperienced youth, he's been fine by me. (Overall.)
I'm going outside to have a bus hit me.
Let's fix 1-5, and if Grady is still a problem, then fire him.
Oh, and I like Grady's personality too. As, I believe, do the players. Anyway, it's a refreshing change from the self-aggrandizing blowhardiness of Jim Tracy.
I agree wholeheartedly [possibly because I'm a Southerner]. But I think sports fans -- who, as a group, are incorrigible -- have a far less generous perception of character.
My point is that Ortiz was just 2 years older then than Santana is now and he seems to me to have gone from a healthy pitcher to a very unhealthy pitcher and such a drastic change in performance would give me great pause about committing $30 million per year for 5 or 6 years unless I had Yankee money.
Just because Santana is better than Ortiz does not mean he can't be injured just as badly.
It is still OK to disagree with me, I just want to be sure you understand my point.
There. Fixed.
Really, it couldn't have been more clear. Go read the post again.
What can be done? If Ned were to be PROMOTED by the owner into a senior VP position or even President (I realize this might put one of the owner's family out of a job) of the Dodgers it would open the GM job up for someone that would be qualified to hold the position. Say someone like White!
If White does not move up soon with the Dodgers he will move up with a different organization. How much worse can White be as a GM compared to Ned? At least White is qualified in evaluating ballplayers.
It is rather indicative of the status that Ned holds with the fanbase that they let out a sigh of relief when he just makes a dumb trade rather than a disastrous trade.
That sort of factors into all of it. A bad contract for a guy like Russ Ortiz doesn't do you any favors if he is healthy. But if Santana's arm fell off, you'd recover a chunk of that money, wouldn't you?
But 20% of your payroll to one starting pitcher scares me.
My point (next to last paragraph of post 289 ) is that I don't see how being outstanding makes one less suseptible to injury.
Is that your point? I am not trying to be argumentative. I had not heard that and really would like to hear it explained why that is.
Since your the historian, are you saying that pitchers who appear to be HOF pitchers between 27-30 usually escape the injury bug and continue to have HOF careers thus making is safer to offer them long term deals?
Three years is manageable if something happens, however, long term contracts for pitchers have a history of being bad investments.
But the Dodgers do have a Santana coming up - Carlos, but alas, not a pitcher (nor guitarist).
>> "We definitely have interest in Kyle Blair, and we like his ability," Dodgers scouting director Tim Hallgren said.
"We just have to see how it works out." <<
http://www.presstelegram.com/sports/ci_6609277
Tomko,Pierre,Hendrick,Wolf...$millions PER YEAR vs approx. 1 Million per draft pick for one year (or more)
Unless your Nolan Ryan and then, hey, let's walk 200 and still keep our ERA below 3.00.
That could mean the long-awaited major-league debut of top relief prospect Jonathan Meloan is at hand. The fireballing right-hander has been as impressive in eight appearances at Triple-A Las Vegas, where he has struck out 11 batters in 11 2/3 innings, as he was in 35 outings at Double-A Jacksonville, where he struck out 70 in 45 1/3 innings. Meloan, 23, has a 1.54 ERA for the 51s. <<
http://www.presstelegram.com/sports/ci_6609277
10. Team refuses to change name to Diamondbacks to take advantage of better record
9. Players disheartened by presence of Patrick O'Neal from Fox Sports because after watching "John from Cincinnati", they really don't want to hit on his wife anymore.
8. Ned Colletti keeps accusing Vin Scully of not being able to suck it up and announce games east of the Rockies
7. Grady Little can't find lineup card with #10 slot printed on it in order to hide poor hitters.
6. Rich Donnelly distracts too many runners on third with anecdotes about how once he forget what the steal sign was.
5. Derek Lowe can't get in touch with Bert Shepard to find out how to pitch with just one leg.
4. Nomar Garciaparra disappointed that Nike wouldn't give Mia and he Nike-branded baby clothes for the twins.
3. Team petition to move to NL Central denied by Commissioner Selig.
2. Failure to score enough runs.
1. Failure to win enough games.
Somebody like Kevin Brown represents the worst-case scenario of such a contract. And what did the Dodgers get out of Brown's contract, in between all the injuries? They got 873 innings pitched with a 149 ERA+, plus Jeff Weaver and Yhency Brazoban. The Brown contract was a spectacular success for the Dodgers. And that's the worst-case scenario.
So let's say you sign somebody like Santana to a seven-year contract. It just isn't physically possible for him to be hurt for all seven of those years. Even in a worst-case scenario -- let's say he loses three of the seven years to injury -- you still have four years of an outstanding pitcher.
Further, I would say that the odds of Santana suffering a disastrous injury are fairly slim given his injury history. He's not immune from injury, but he ain't Kevin Brown or Jason Schmidt either. For one thing, he's a lot younger than those guys. You'd be signing him for his prime, not for his late thirties.
And I'll say it again: Ace pitchers in their late twenties simply do not suffer career-ending arm injuries anymore. They used to, but now they come back from injury and are still outstanding pitchers.
If you look at all the long-term deals signed by pitchers of Santana's caliber, you'll see that almost all of them paid off big-time. Maddux signing with the Braves in '92. Clemens' signing by Toronto in '97. Randy Johnson's signing with AZ in '99. Pedro's trade and simultaneous long-term signing with the Red Sox in '98. In every one of those cases, the pitcher's team won at least one World Championship during his contract (with Clemens getting traded to NY).
Just looking at everything that's happened in the past, plus looking at the specifics of Santana's case, it seems like it's about as low-risk, high-reward a scenario as a long-term deal gets.
I confess Dreifort came to mind during the conversation but because of his injury history before the contract I think we had some warning and Santana has not had that.
Ortiz gave some hints that something was wrong as well. While I think he was better than some here think his ERA rose 3 years in a row from 3.29 all the way up to 4.13, about 0.25 points per year, and his walks increased every year as well. Santana does not show any such trends.
I think it will be great fun this off season to see what happens with him. I actually fear him signing with someone in our division and having 6 great years far more than I do having him sign with us and be a bust. We can win carrying a $30 million non-performer more easily than we can win having him pitch like he does in SD or AZ and them eating our lunch.
Again, thanks for the conversation.
I've enjoyed your look to the Dodgers' future, Jon, and others' two bits. A pleasant distraction.
Well stated! Sure is good to have Little to listen to now.
http://tinyurl.com/3aj83b
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