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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 50-35 (.588)
When Jon attended: 9-5 (.643)
When Jon didn't: 41-30 (.577)
Dodgers at home: 795-635 (.556)
Jon attended: 302-238 (.559)*
Jon didn't: 498-404 (.552)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2009 Salaries
(updated November 14)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$10,000,000 Hiroki Kuroda
*$475,000 Chad Billingsley
*$415,000 Clayton Kershaw
*$405,000 Eric Stults
*$400,000 James McDonald
*Total: $11,695,000
Bullpen (7)
*$2,500,000 Takashi Saito
*$1,300,000 Scott Proctor
*$1,500,000 Jonathan Broxton
*$425,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
*$420,000 Cory Wade
*$410,000 Ramon Troncoso
*$400,000 Scott Elbert
Total: $6,955,000
Also on 40-man roster
Mario Alvarez
Yhency Brazoban
Greg Miller
Justin Orenduff
Starting Lineup (8)
$17,100,000 Andruw Jones
*$3,000,000 Russell Martin
*$2,500,000 Andre Ethier
*$600,000 Matt Kemp
*$600,000 James Loney
*$500,000 Angel Berroa
*$410,000 Blake DeWitt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
Total: $25,110,000
Bench (5)
$10,000,000 Juan Pierre
*$600,000 Jason Repko
*$410,000 Delwyn Young
*$400,000 Danny Ardoin
*$400,000 Chin-Lung Hu
Total: $11,810,000
Note: Team can buy out Ozuna's 2009 option for $200,000
Also on 40-man roster
A.J. Ellis
Lucas May
Xavier Paul
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
Also Paying ...
$2,000,000 Brad Penny (buyout of $9,000,000 option)
$50,000 Gary Bennett (buyout of $900,000 option)
Note: Kansas City is responsible for $500,000 buyout of Angel Berroa's $5,500,000 option for 2009.
Working total: *$68,020,000
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The Dodgers would rather spend money on washed-up infielders than a potential starting pitcher.
For the amount of money that the team has paid or will pay guys like Ramon Martinez, Wilson Valdez and Shea Hillenbrand this year, the Dodgers could have had Kyle Blair, a first-round talent whom they stole with a fifth-round draft pick because of signability concerns. And even though Blair came down from a requested $1.5 million signing bonus to $1.1 million, according to Tony Jackson of the Daily News, the Dodgers are walking away.
"We were unable to come to terms," Dodgers assistant general manager Logan White told Jackson. "We wish Kyle Blair the best and know he is going to have a good career. We just weren't able to get it done. He is a good kid. I talked to Kyle today, and there is disappointment all around that we weren't able to get it done. But there certainly is a positive feeling toward Kyle, and I think he feels the same way towards us. I think everybody made as much effort as they could, but it was just a no-go."
Again, let's reiterate. It's not that the Dodgers don't have the money to spend. It's that they choose to spend it on declining or completely declined players. They choose to spend big chunks on low- or no-ceiling players like Martinez, Valdez, Hillenbrand, Mark Hendrickson ($2.925 million this season) and Brett Tomko (nearly $10 million guaranteed for 2006-2008, even if they buy out his 2008 option) - players that anyone can see are of minimal help. They would rather eat crackers for dinner than take a chance that for the same amount of money, they might end up with steak - if they could show the slightest bit of patience and discipline.
What am I missing? The eminently respected White is publicly on board with letting Blair go, but I still don't understand. This isn't a case of a player like former draft choice (and 2007 MLB top pick) David Price, who was determined to go to college. Blair was ready to make a deal. So unless Blair has suffered an arm injury, unless the Dodgers suddenly had reason to reverse their opinion of him, this makes absolutely no sense. It would be one thing if the Dodgers were being thrifty as a rule - if they didn't waste their money on the untalented. But they can't keep themselves from shopping for the shiny toys with the lead paint.
Mark Sweeney had a brain cramp Wednesday night - remarkably stupid, but something that with two seconds of extra thought he would never allow to happen. But the Dodgers, with all summer to prepare for this moment rationally, cannot see the forest for the trees. This is the blunder of the week - and potentially much more significant. I don't care if Blair never makes it out of AA ball. If he has the potential that he is professed to have, the Dodgers have made a huge mistake.
There is a real philosophical disconnect symbolized by not signing Blair. Yes, the Dodgers have Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, Clayton Kershaw, James Loney, Russell Martin, Jonathan Broxton. But they cannot rest on those laurels. Nobody's perfect, but it does get to a point where if your major skill is retaining talent that you should obviously retain, then that's not a lot to hang your hat on - especially when in fact you're not retaining all the talent that you should obviously retain. They either need to stay aggressive in their approach to the draft, or stop wasting money that could be better spent. And why not both?
* * *
Tonight's game:
Update: The notion that MLB discouraged the Dodgers from paying X amount of dollars for Blair is unsatisfying. If the reality is essentially that MLB is making it impossible for a drafted player to be signed, that has to be challenged. And, in fact, other teams are doing just that, going above the slotted money to sign their draftees.
Brilliant Jon.
I pledge five dollars to sign Kyle Blair.
I got about tree fitty.
Yet...so sad that it had to come to this.
The Seattle Mariners, desperate for a closer at the trading deadline [ten years ago], dealt two of their best prospects to the Boston Red Sox for reliever Heathcliff Slocumb.
The Mariners won one postseason game that year, and have yet to reach the World Series.
Those two prospects who were traded to a Red Sox team that finished 20 games out of first place?
Future World Series championship players Jason Varitek and, um, er, Derek Lowe.
"Well, yeah," Lowe said.
What do these pitchers have in common:
Bryan Morris
Scott Elbert
Justin Orenduff
Chuck Tiffany
Greg Miller
All have been drafted in the first or supplemental rounds and gotten bonuses at or near the amount Kyle Blair reportedly came down to in his negotiations with the Dodgers.
They also have had some type of surgery and though its remains possilbe that Miller, Orenduff, Elbert and Morris will pitch in Dodger Stadium, there are no guarantees it will happen.
I agree with Jon that the team should not a let a few dollars stop them from acquiring good young talent but that is about 5 million in bonus money that is currently either waiting to throw again this fall or is back in Jacksonville so just because someone is highly touted, doesn't put him in Chavez Ravine.
Dental Plan!
I'm only going to make the brownies if bhsportsguy gives me the go ahead.
Nothing more fun than baking on a 100-degree day. But it's a mix, so the prep work is next to nothing. It involves measuring, pouring, and inserting in the oven and that will be it.
So does Carolyn
No doubt it is a risk, but at the cost it seems smart. I mean it was a huge risk to sign Schmidt and Wolf and they have proven things in the league.
How did I miss that?
This downward snowballing has got to stop.
First the ship sank then the sea dried up, all that was left were tears.
Sure they all could blow out their arms which is why you have to keep restocking with talent until one of them makes it.
I'd rather have one high upside arm make it then 3 rotational fillers. I understand your point, I don't agree with it. If this was a 2nd round talent asking for 1.1 then he'd be out of line but most draft hounds said that Blair was a 1st round talent. If Brackman gets 3.3, then Blair would seem to be worth 1.1. It almost seems like a no brainer to me.
Maybe it should be the other way around.
How about -- the Dodgers are on probation. They don't get another dollar of my money until they show they deserve it.
Examples of not deserving my money:
Trading away young, power-hitting infielders
Choosing not to sign young, talented pitchers
Picking up stiff after stiff from the trash heap
The list goes on...
Thus the problem. Maybe you can see it, maybe I can see it, maybe all of DT can see it. But what if the deeply serious baseball people see different? Let's take it player-by-player.
Hendrickson: Relatively low contract, pitched well for his previous team and might pitch even better in a pitchers park like Dodger Stadium. Provides depth and he's left-handed.
That's not a bad argument to get Mark Hendrickson.
Shea Hillenbrand: A two-time All-Star who was OPSing over .800 with Toronto last season . He's not doing anything now but, of course, neither are we so why not get him and see if he can't help drum up a winning streak?
I think if the Dodgers were truly out of it, they would've passed on Hillenbrand.
Brett Tomko: Grady Little likes his arm. And if my manager says he likes his arm, I like his arm.
What do all of these players have in common? They have all (quite arguably) had success in the bigs and in the case of the two pitchers, they've enjoyed success with the Dodgers.
Oh yeah--I forgot one.
Martinez/Valdez: I haven't been able to tell the difference between these two since they joined the team.
Wilson Valdez scored the winning run in the last game the Dodgers won in San Diego.
Brady Clark drove him in.
I think the image of the guys sitting around in Panama hats smoking cigars is fading.
We're going festival tonight to raise money. We can do it!*
*We can't really do it.
All I am saying is that they had two more months to look at him and maybe their projection changed, maybe they don't even see him as a first round guy in three years, again you'd have to ask them but I think it was more than just the money.
I'm not baking any brownies until I get the go-ahead from bhsportsguy.
Or me.
Well said above Jon. I keep feeling like we must be missing some piece of information, something, other than that they cheaped out, but haven't seen it yet.
About 7 hours left. I say this is all a big bluff by the D's and we'll sign him about 11:45 tonight........yes I believe in fairies and pixie dust.
Contreras - I'm sure we can get Pierre through waivers. Let's just trade him even up with each team taking on the contract of the guy they got. The White Sox need a center fielder for next year (and the three years after that).
Yeah, Logan White.
I don't think Jackson made up the quotes.
And how do they compare to the brownies that trainwreck wants me to buy in Golden Gate Park...?
I'm using a mix, so I doubt they won't be as good.
http://tinyurl.com/2bzzzj
I should say, since I'm using a mix, the brownies won't be as good as bhsportsguy's cookies.
If it were cooler, I would make cookies from scratch and then there would be a contest.
When the Depo era was over, I still was excited because of the push for the youth movement. Colletti has by-and-large reaped benefits from that, and to his credit hasn't wasted it (yet). But my excitement dampens with each cruddy veteran that we overpay for, and every young guy we miss out on or trade (for any reason).
Rooting for mediocre veterans is not thrilling. It is not interesting. If the team isn't solidly in first, it's downright sad.
With the payroll they can wield, I honestly can't figure out why the Dodgers wouldn't take a two-pronged approach: keep the farm system crowded with tons of hot young talent (by drafting smartly and being willing to pay), and, by having a young MLB team with a relatively low payroll, targeting top-priced free agents that are the best in the game.
It just makes too much sense. Why wouldn't you take this approach?
Sorry, I don't think Sweeney has been here long enough to be at or near the top of the lackluster list. After all, he's hitting .400 and he was just showing a lot of hustle last night, going to second even though the ball was obviously foul.
Nats have the same game of chicken running with Jack McGeary who may go to Stanford. Twist is, the team has said (through "sources" that they can get agreement on the money but are unsure if they want to buck the league on slot issues - esp. since it'd be a 6th round pick somewhere above $1.5M.
They leaked last night that it was done and McG was to college. Then today other sources told the beat guy they were still working it, with the caveats described above. Crazy.
Is it worse to lose the prospect over $300G or over not wanting to ruffle Selig's feathers?
If the Cardinals win, they'll be just 3 1/2 out. The Astros are just 8 out.
Withrow has better projection but Blair has tad better present stuff. I'd probably take Withrow over Blair but Withrow hasn't pitched in 2 weeks..
I have air conditioning.
I just don't like to mix perspiration into my brownies.
Just blood and tears...?
I've got exactly 38 bucks in my wallet I'll pledge it as well.
Maybe I should have asked if was a coinicidence that last nights play involved 1 of LAs most lackluster players.
What's your definition of lackluster? I am absolutely no fan of his signing but JP has been on base 7 times in the past 3 games. How many other guys on the team can say that?
70 - why nothing but fastballs?
Is BORA$$ Blair's agent? That would explain a lot. If so, why did White draft Blair knowing he would have to deal with BORA$$? Do White and Ned never learn from their previous mistakes?
Boras is not Blair's agent.
73
probably choice A.
Except you, I guess.
because he can't throw anything else for strikes.
He is very lackluster.
http://www.beloblog.com/Pe_Blogs/baseball/dodgers/2007/08/blair_project_finished.html
Just trying to give him the benefit of the doubt over the last 3 games compared to the play of the rest of the team.
Overall, I would say he definitely lacks luster.
that doesn't even make sense considering he will probably cost more in 3 years and a top 10 pick.
Yeah, just like we got Utley the next time around. Does that ever actually happen?
You really believe anything these guys say?
No, I don't. What's your point?
That quote is just depressing.
Yeah, we really think he will be good, but we don't want to pay him for it.
well if that board took into account players they could sign, then i believe it. If it was strictly a talent board then absolutely not.
Will I get more used to it?
On the walk back last night, I saw an Indian/Pakistani restaurant on one of the streets off Leavenworth. Do you know anything about it? I might head up there for dinner...
from TJ in the comments section
To answer npurcell's question, yes, it has a LOT to do with the commish's office. Not enough teams were willing to risk Selig's wrath by going too far over slot. The more teams that do it, the less the fallout is going to be for each one that does.
From the various reports I have heard, Olson has looked real good at times, but at times still seems to take too long to decide.
Darrell Scott says he is going to take an official visit to UCLA and we seem to be among his favorites.