Per the last comment on the previous thread, in the Dan Patrick interview, Tim McClelland actually said that even if Barrett had caught the ball, the runner still would have been safe. He said he saw the runner slide through the catcher's leg, and that he always waits until the play is complete (in this case, waiting to see if the catcher caught the ball or not), processes all the information, and then makes the call. He sounds like a very methodical ump, which explains the way he calls a game. He also is extremely ethical, which I appreciate, and would support replays but only for fair/foul or home run calls where the replay shows the call was wrong.

Definitely a good interview.

LAT'd:

Anyone hear Tim McClelland on the Dan Patrick show this morning?

He says he got the call right, and that the two replay angles can't help to disprove him. Says Barrett's foot was not grounded and that Holliday got the plate in pushing it away. Also mentioned that had Barrett hung onto the ball, Holliday would have been out.

I thought it was pretty stand-up for an umpire to go live on the air so soon after the controversy.

1 Yeah, as I said, I was very impressed that the interview even took place.

Thanks for the clarification on the dropped ball.

This is part of what makes Dan Patrick's show so great, as opposed to um....Cowherd. :-)

He didn't look out to me if he had just held onto the ball. It appeared he still would've had to apply the tag if he had fielded it cleanly, at which point Holliday would've already gone past him. It didn't look like Barrett got an empty glove on him before Holliday "touched" the plate.

D'oh! I was LATed, but it was about the Rams, so I'm not copying in up here.

...10 days after the conclusion of the 2007 season; the latest that would be is November 11, 2007.

Good grief. I remember being shocked when an SI issue covering the conclusion of the WS was dated November 1. (A Reds year maybe? 1976?). I know there was November baseball in 2001, but that was due to rescheduling after 9/11, wasn't it?

I think it ran into November after the earthquake.

mlb.contracts also says this about ARod's contract.

"Rodriguez may void after 2008 or 2009 unless club increases 2009-10 salary by $5M/year or $1M more than highest-paid MLB position player

no-trade clause

club may offer salary arbitration if Rodriguez voids contract 2007-09, but club may not offer salary arbitration after 2010"

So if he opts out and they offer him arbitration and he says "no" does that mean that whoever signs him has to give up a draft choice?

Didn't Jeter or someone hit a homer in an extra inning game just after midnight on Nov. 1 one year?

Jon, are you holding the sarcasm sign? [bbt]

Jeter did, that was the 2001 WS.

Bill Dwyre had an article in the LA Times making the case for instant replay. He held the Holliday slide as the big cause, but failed to mention that that type of play would not (should not?) be reviewable, and even if it was, it would be inconclusive: "The ruling on the field stands."

I heard the tail-end of the Patrick inteview. He told McClelland that he got the call wrong (in his non-confrontational way). McClelland said to the effect, "that's what makes this country great, everyone can have their own opinion. But mine is the one that counts."

McClelland certainly had the best view in the house.

So if he opts out and they offer him arbitration and he says "no" does that mean that whoever signs him has to give up a draft choice?

Almost certainly so. I can't imagine the Yankees declining to offer him arbitration. It could happen, but it seems implausible.

11 - Yeah, I found it interesting that one would choose to make a case for instant replay based on replays that were inconclusive.

7 Close, but the '89 WS ended on 9/28. Would have run into November maybe, but it was a sweep.

My playoff predictions....

Boston over Anh, Clev over NY
Boston over Cle

Cubs over AZ, Col over Phi
Col over Cubs

Boston over Col

Orel Hershiser said on ESPN that he favors replay for HR/not HR and fair/foul only.

So if the umpire ruled foul and all the runners stopped and returned to their bases, but the replay indicates fair, what then? If the umpire indicates HR, the batter (and runners) jogs around the bases, but the replay shows "hit the yellow line" or something, what then? Ground-rule doubles?? Yecch.

Having a tiebreaker game decided in extra-innings on an extremely close play that could have been called either way seems pretty fitting to me.

I stand by my remarks from the previous thread, comment 79.

Instant Replay challenge rule. If a manager wants to challenge a play, umpires watch instant replay camera. If correct, the play is overturned, and the umpire who overthrew the play cannot personally eject the manager. If the manager is wrong, the opposing manager gets to select the player of his choice to be ejected.

8 Rodriguez may void after 2008 or 2009 unless club increases 2009-10 salary by $5M/year or $1M more than highest-paid MLB position player

I read this as saying that the Yankees can keep A-Rod without even signing him to a contract extension -- just by increasing his salary for the two years already on his contract by $5 million/year. Is that correct?

If so, shouldn't the Yankees do this?

17 And I still say that, violating the spirit of that rule and the game, I would encourage my team to make close plays against the Cardinals. Enough close plays would bait La Russa to challenge me. And when La Russa is wrong, I will eject Pujols.

19 - Nice. But really, I'm just looking for a way to keep Little from running Russell Martin into the ground.

19

Under that scenario, Chipper Jones or Teixiera would never see the end of any game.

18 - I think that's in addition to the opt-out he has now.

Why would anyone want instant replay in baseball? The only possible case is when you want to change a hit ruled a double or long foul ball into a home run. In any other case, there are typically runners on the bases. McClelland made a great point that on a safe/out call, what the players do next depends on whether the call is safe/out. If you then go change the call, what do you do about the runners? I.e. ff a play is called out at the plate, and it is the third out, then the runner on third comes home while everyone is returning to their dugouts -- what happens if the ump changes to the rule to safe on replay? It's just a huge mess.

I prefer no replay in baseball ever. Let it be the one sport that is played out on the field instead of on TV sets.

Steve Finley, Rod Barajas, Scott Brosius, and Alfonso Soriano have all hit World Series homers in November.

Brosisus hit his in the ninth inning off of Byung-Hyun Kim to tie the game.

In the three November World Series games in 2001, Derek Jeter was 2 for 11.

Jeter did hit a home run in the 10th inning of Game 4 of the 2001 World Series, which started on October 31 and finished after midnight.

Speaking of all this, the wires this morning had Boras saying that Andruw Jones will require $20 million per year to sign.

Holy...crap...

18 That provision is after 08 or 09. They don't have that option after 07.

25
I can't believe that GMs don't universally want to "stick it to" Boras by not giving in to his demands. But there's always some moron willing to do whatever he wants.

Please, GMs, I prithee: don't pay $20 million/year for Jones.

It will be interesting to see what Cameron, Milton, A Jones, Rowand, and Hunter get.

This year, of the 12 NL CFers who had enough PA's to qualify for the batting title Andruw Jones OPS was 11th. Guess who was 12th. Do we want the 11th and 12th best offensive CFers in our OF next year? I don't.

16 - yeah, I don't think those advocating for instant replay in baseball have a clear understanding of the rules of the game.

Instant replay would be a total disaster in baseball.

28
You'd think Sabean will be paying big for somebody.

27 You've taken some game theory classes, haven't you? Collusion, besides being illegal, is also devilishly hard to sustain. Each team has a strong incentive to cheat on the agreement and get Boras's players for themselves.

Ultimately, winning is more important for a GM than sticking it to Boras.

33
If your team wins, you can probably make more money for yourself than you can by "sticking it to Boras."

Baseball teams are competing with each other, not Scott Boras.

28
Rowand has always jumped out at me as a "Colletti Guy". That said, I think that Ned will be more focused on 3B and will allow the Kemp, Pierre, Ethier OF another year to mature.

It is scary to think of Ned panicking after missing out on A-Rod, Jones, Hunter, and Santana and picking up Rowand for 4 years and 40 million...

32
I understand completely. The problem though is that in game theory, "cheaters" win, at least in the short term. While social welfare may go down, their private welfare goes up.

But in baseball, cheaters don't necessarily win. GMs who sign Barry Zitos and Andruw Joneses to 100 million contracts aren't exactly getting a leg up on non-cheaters. They're just making themselves look stupid, and making things worse for other GMs.

I'm not suggesting formal collusion: I'm just suggesting common sense across the board.

Has a consensus developed among the DT readers yet as for what to do this off season?

It seems rather unanimous that the Bums should make a run at A-Rod, but other than that, anything?

33-34
I guess I'm distinguishing between Boras clients who are worth a lot of money (e.g. ARod) and Boras clients who aren't (e.g. Zito).

34
Boras is not going anywhere and is a necessary evil that GMs will eventually have to deal with because he keeps picking up guys like Rick Porcello and Dice-K. He is continually restocking the cupboards with young impact guys.

Colletti may as well get it over with and prepare to bid around 4/$140 on A-Rod...to start.

I have no problem with Rowand in a vacuum... Pretty solid numbers for 4/40 plus I can't imagine his Defense is any worse than Juan Pierre.

He's not PVL material; only 29 right now.

37 According to most the preferrable path is called ARONS. A-Rod Or Nobody Scenario. Would you like to join ARONS? I know that I am on board.

Check out the defensive stats on Druw Jones. His fielding percentage remains solid, but his putouts have been in steady decline.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jonesan01.shtml

37 "Has a consensus developed among the DT readers yet as for what to do this off season?"

Hibernate.

37 - I don't think that's unanimous, but I'm sure many feel we should at least inquire.

-- the thing is, re: Rowand, he figures to get more than 4/40.

That puts me on the ARONs, shall run roll call?

shall I run roll call?

Ultimately, winning is more important for a GM than sticking it to Boras

To follow up, I'm talking about situations where winning and sticking it to Boras are symbiotic. (e.g. spending $100 million on something more useful than Barry Zito).

Here's an unofficial nonscientific poll: Of the Toaster blogs whose teams are in the postseason, which has the giddiest commenters?

36
In my 40 years of watching baseball, common sense has never seemed to prevail in baseball from management.

I'd bet that the common sense gene has mutated as the earth tries to rid itself of our species.

39
I thought in 2005, Rowand was considered one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball.

23 I think you are exaggerating the problem. Umpires already have discretion on placing baserunners where they should be on fan interference and such. If a player is called out for the third out, the play stops. If later evidence overrules that call, then the umpires need to decide where to place the other runners based on what likely would have happened if the play had continued. If the runner was advancing to second on the throw home, then he should be placed at second. It really isn't that hard. It's not like a fumble in football, where you don't know who's going to recover the ball when the play is ruled dead. For the most part, runners run at approximately the same pace, and if a runner scores from second and there is a play at home, the batter will get to second. If all players are tagging up and there is a play at one base, the others would have gotten there safely.

That's how I would implement it. However, I'm not in favor of it for anything but home runs.

I'd bet that the common sense gene has mutated as the earth tries to rid itself of our species

The earth is lucky that so many of us appear to have the same goal.

I'm for any hot stove trade that gets Juan Pierre off the team. I'm sure he's a very nice person and loves his mother, but IMO he's not contributing.

Regarding Jone:

Schuerholz said the team got an offer from Boras last December but quickly realized it was far more than anything they would consider.

Boras withdrew the offer, believed to be in the $20-million-a-year range, over the summer when the Braves never responded, Schuerholz said.

"What that did was to signal what we could fully expect," the GM said. Asked how much Boras was asking for, Schuerholz held his right hand over his head. "I can't reach that high," he quipped.

"It was so far removed from what we could even consider doing," Schuerholz added.

"We have to use our assets in the most effective way to put the best 25 people on the field," Schuerholz said.

(Yahoo Sports)

AROD - Raises Hand
Barry Bonds - Raises Hand

37 I'm definitely with the ARONS, but even DTers who think the Dodgers should go after him don't necessarily agree that ARON is the right course of action. Some people feel that 2008 might be a good time for an incremental upgrade (Jones/Hunter/Rowand) and that 2009 is the time for the big splurge -- Miguel Cabrera, Johan Santana, etc.

I see their point, but disagree. I believe that for the paycheck those guys would get, they would likely not provide enough improvement over Ethier.

For me, it's ARON.

17

... I don't think there should be any form of instant replay provision in baseball, particularly any rule that allows for ejecting a star player from the game -- I think that's a slap in the face of paying customers.

I am a fan of the human element having a place in baseball; there are three rules I would implement with regards to umpires:

1 - No umpire should use his position of authority to grind an axe against a player, or to fuel a rivalry or grudge against a player.

2 - No umpire should make a spectacle of himself, or otherwise make a mockery of the game he's working.

3 - All umpires should be subject to detailed evaluation after each season, with all umpire errors archived and organized according to different situations (balls/strikes, calls at bases, implementation of on-field rules in a prompt manner, professional conduct, etc.) -- and before he is permitted to work in the major leagues the next season, he should receive training in any situation where he is evaluated as unsatisfactory.

45
I am on that bandwagon with one small (OK not so small) exception: Miguel Cabrera.

I will formally nominate myself as president of the POOCOWL (Pierre Out Of Center Or We Lose). It seems many of you greatly underrate the importance of defense in this game (especially up the middle). Signing A-Rod would be great but I feel that our team would still be destined to lose with Pierre as our everyday CFer. I stated yesterday that our team is still built on quality pitching and the best way that our team can compliment this strength is to improve defensively.

Therefore: Andruw, Hunter or Rowand > A-Rod to the Dodgers.

I want Piazza to be our backup catcher and I want Delwyn Young to learn to be our emergency catcher so that both can pinch-hit at will. How's that???

42 - He used to be Andy Jones; he changed his name to Druw after completing anger management training.

58 The difference is that Miguel Cabrera will require players in trade. A-Rod can be had for money only -- a lot of money, of course, but no players.

That said, if he is available and if the Dodgers do not hamstring themselves in other areas by giving up too much for him... because he is one of the best players in baseball, I will happily accept him on my team.

I now expect Howard Fox to find something in my comment and make a play on words to imply that Miguel Cabrera is fat. Howard -- the floor is yours.

60 - I wondered if Piazza might return as a backup. If he will, that would be great. Plus, Plaschke could write another column about that big fat jerk Brad Penny who won't give up his uniform number.

From the previous thread, re ARONS... I just wanted to say, Aron's is or at least was a pretty decent record store, in LA.

59- I can't recall anyone ever doubting defensive importance here. It is universally known Juan Pierre has a noodle for an arm. It's just some people don't get Ned signed him because he likes him. It's a philosophical thing, and I just can't envision any trade of JP unless Ned is fired.

59 No one disagrees with you. Pierre is the worst regular on the Dodgers and the biggest structural problem on the team. But I -- and, I expect, most of the ARONS -- take it as a given Pierre to play at least 162 games in CF for the Dodgers next year. If Colletti liked him enough before the start of this season to outbid all comers, what would he see this season that would change his mind?

If that given is wrong -- and it might be -- then ARONS falls apart... but I just can't imagine it's wrong.

That should say "...take it as a given that Pierre will play at least 162 games..."

64- I liked Aron's as well. Amoeba can be a bit much.

65 JP to left, one of the FA CFs and Kemp in right. JP's arm will be hidden in left and we will have a track team in the OF. Ethier becomes expendable but I really think that he is destined for mediocrity anyway, so why not try to package him in a trade for an additional young arm?

69-It's silly to say Ethier is destined for anything with the way he has been played.

Was Luis Gonzalez's arm hidden in left? It's sort of like batting Pierre eighth - shifting Pierre doesn't really help all that much if he's still in the lineup every day.

How about Pierre as the emergency catcher??? He and Piazza can compare throws to second base.

69 JP's arm might be hidden in left, but his bat will be like a huge zit on the end of his nose. There will be no concealing it.

70 Look at the difference in production between Ethier and Kemp, they were both in the same situation.

60 You're in the Mike Piazza and Delwyn Young Backing Up Russ Martin club. MPADYBURM.

You may be the sole member.

Juan Pierre as a lefty-throwing catcher would be wrong on so many levels.

71 Where is a weak arm more costly to a team? I would say center, in left you have a shorter throw to 3rd and Home (or the cutoff man), plus CFs are responsible for twice as many balls in the gap as corner OFs.

66
I am not one to love the fact that Pierre is our everyday CFer, but I do not think that he is so bad as to say that we can not win with him on our squad. Most of the ammo assailing him revolves around his contract (too long for too much money), but his contract is not debilitating as a percentage of our overall payroll.

I think that it is safe to say that Repko, when healthy provides the same play for a 90% discount, but Pierre was on a Marlins team that won the WS.

I don't think that he will be the reason we win a WS, but I also think that we can win despite his shortcomings.

60 How much, I wonder, would "back-up Piazza" cost us?

Maybe the equivalent of both Lieberthal and the Tomato last year (since he could fill both roles)?

76- How many more runs did Pierre's arm cost, this year, than Gonzalez's?

36 - You're referring to Prisoner's Dilemma and iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. Neither is necessarily appropriate for this situation. Free agency strikes me as more of a Stag Hunt scenario, which is what you describe later.

Cooperation has the best payoff (i.e. keep player salaries down or at least reduce inflation), but trust is highly problematic. By paying Andruw $20 million per year an owner is not screwing the other owners. But he also isn't leaving the hunting ground empty handed.

76 - It's more costly in center, I agree, but I'm just saying that moving Pierre to another position or another batting order spot does very little in the grand scheme of things.

73 - So, you're ready to say that a guy with a line of .295/.357/.464 in 843 career at bats is going to be nothing more than mediorce? Really?

74 - I'd be willing to join that group. But I'm more prone to the Young At Second and Kent Anywhere Else Club, right now.

76- I think your splitting peas. He has a bad arm no matter what position he plays.

Ethier has shown he can hit for average with decent power. Its not a stretch to figure he could hit 20-25 homers over a full season next year imo.

79 If I could find a quantifiable number I'd give it to you but I'll just go ahead and say a lot more!

I'm for any hot stove trade that gets Juan Pierre off the team.

Presumably you don't mean Kemp+Loney+Pierre for Santana. But that is one way to get rid of him. :-)

82 - and by "Kent Anywhere Else" I mean any other major league team

81 Right. The biggest problem with Pierre is not his arm -- it is his bat. Any solution that involves replacing Pierre in CF but not getting him off the team entirely is fruitless.

And I don't think he's leaving the Dodgers, for a variety of reasons.

By paying Andruw $20 million per year an owner is not screwing the other owners

But aren't there negative externalities from the standpoint of other GMs? If Jones's crappy .222/.311/.413/.724 line is deemed to be worth 20/year, won't that inevitably drive up the price for other players above what it would have been if Jones "only" signed for 5/year?

77
http://www.truebluela.com/story/2007/10/3/11133/6919

83 I thought splitting peas was only done in lovely Buellton, California. Elsewhere, we split hairs.

81 We both agree that he is an overall liability but why not try to minimize his shortcomings? I honestly think his defense has hurt us worse than his offense.

82 - .295/.357/.464 in 843 career at bats

Playing devil's advocate here, but that's about league average production from a LFer (his OPS+ was 104 last year). If leftfield and thirdbase are your only realistic areas to improve, can you do better than league average production there?