Amen.

And for those who would suggest that Los Angeles is too impatient a city to allow a team to build in this fashion . . .

I don't trust the brass to have the patience.

Off topic -- here's an interesting piece on the MLB.com beat writers and the potential conflicts of reporters being paid by the league they cover. As a reporter, it's hard for me to imagine this not being a big problem (though Ken Gurnick seems to do a pretty good job).

http://tinyurl.com/2njcru

I don't trust the LA Times to have the patience.

Takashi Saito was killed after being hit on the head with a bottle and beaten with an aluminum bat by a stable of Sumo wrestlers:

http://tinyurl.com/2c3wgg

(no, not that Takashi Saito)

I heard a rumor that Rockies upper management and ownership are very religious. Supposedly they only draft and sign players within the same religion with the intentions of keeping a happy clubhouse. Has anyone heard anything like this? This seemed a little far-fetched to me.

I think the lesson that can be learned from the Rockies and Tigers is how important defense is with this absurd pitching market. Neither team had more than one good pitcher (Verlander's perhiperals were not great in 2006) yet they excelled at keeping runs off the board because their defense was amazing. Buying pitching off the free agent market is just pointless now, so picking up guys who have good gloves and letting your decent in house options and waiver wire pickups take the ball seems like a much better option.

7 So are you saying we should make Jeff Kent the scapegoat?

7 - Interesting ... that would have been good for me to talk about in my column. Too bad I didn't!

5 - made my heart stop for the first 10 words.

8 It's a start. Obviously you need to find some balance between a good glove and a good stick, but it seems like it's a lot cheaper right now to find a guy who can save runs with his glove instead of a guy who can save them with his arm.

Plus, it has the added effect of making your pitchers overvalued due to their artifically supressed ERAs so you can spin them for something useful.

2 The Angels were in a slightly different situation as the #2 team in the market, but their 2002 team was built in much the same way as the Rockies. They've tried to sustain it with imports like Vlad, Colon and Escobar, but the core of the 2002 team was comprised of homegrown players or players taken from other minor league systems: Anderson, Glaus, Lackey, Washburn, Eckstein, Erstad, Percival, K-Rod. The wave of emotion around that team was due to the fans' feeling that these players belonged to them. Even though the Angels have not reached the top since then, and even though the 2002 team has almost completely turned over, the fans still view the team as a local product, uniquely theirs.

McCourt needs to understand this. Bringing in famous old players is a quick fix for sustaining fan interest. In the long haul, fans like to discover, not rent, superstars.

6 Somehow I doubt Kasuo Matsui is an evangelical. I'm skeptical of these stories about the, as Mark TR Donohue put it, "dugout crusade for Christ."

Slightly expanding on my defense point, these were the ranks in team defensive efficency for the playoff teams this year:

2nd, 3rd, 8th, 9th, 11th, 14th, 16th, 19th.

Two of the teams on the bottom, the Yankees (14th) and the Phillies (19th) were the two best offensive teams in baseball and won mainly with that. Cleveland is the only team that didn't score a huge amount of runs (6th in the AL) yet were still successful without a good defense. They prevented runs almost entirely with in house pitching with Paul Byrd being the only remotely relevant free agent pitcher.

It's not nearly enough data to reach a real conclusion, but this is leading me to think that right now to excel at run prevention you either need a great defense or home grown pitching talent.

Magic Johnson over Koufax? I don't remember, was he an infielder?

6
I'd love to see a team get built with agnostics and atheists. The post game interviews would be a bit more interesting.

Nice post Jon. I know I've said this before, but I think everyone is getting tired of the big markets requiring major alterations in their team every off-season. I wonder how many people turn out to the ballpark because of what they read in the Times that morning.

But isn't Alyssa a blogger?

http://alyssa.mlblogs.com/alyssa/2007/10/an-open-letter-.html

6 The USA today article quoted them as being open to all beliefs, but that Christian principles guide their decisions, and the decisions of many of their players.

17 - I think the assumption is that pitcher -> ex-girlfriend = Alyssa Milano.

Niedenfuer..?! Niedenfuer...! ("Cleaning Woman?! Cleaning Woman!!")

Actually, I always liked the guy until his big choke... and even then felt sorry for him.

---

Speaking of rumored coaching shifts, anyone think there's a chance the Dodgers could let Honeycutt go and replace him with Orel Hershiser? I don't have that many problems with Honeycutt but would love to have Orel on the staff, rather than see him go elsewhere.

20 - LOL - great analogy. The meter totally works.

I think Hershiser wants to manage or do front office at this point.

7 Not to beat "MoneyBall" to death but I do recall that after the run on OBP types, good defenders were the next category of players that could be obtained at a more equitable price.

I'm fairly confidnet that Kent produces enough offense to offset his defense especially on a team that had issues at other more offensively challenged spots.

I do think its a little early to say that the Dodgers won't play their young players instead of bringing in another crop of veterans. Right now, the only position that could even be considered would be 3B and the Dodgers have two guys already on the roster to compete for that position.

I think last year was just last year, it didn't work out. Now a lot will depend on what Jeff Kent does with his option and if the Dodgers try to go after a 3B in the free agent market.

"My plan was to kiss her with every lip on my face."

Yeah, I suppose so. I can't picture Orel managing in Pittsburgh or Kansas City (well, maybe the latter), so you never know...

I wonder if the Orel's managing and front office ship, has sailed?

We need to shell out everything possible for Hiroki Kuroda. I believe he put up a 1.85 ERA in close to 200 IP a few years ago.

Penny
Lowe
Billingsley
Kuroda
Schmidt/Loaiza/Wolf

Would be an excellent rotation with the only real question mark coming from #5.

23 Trey Hillman named Royals new manager.

26 So much for that. Sorry Orel!

24 - Well, there are places where fans pine for him in some capacity, including Yankees fans (as pitching coach).

25 - How much would that cost the Dodgers? Do they have to do the ridiculous bidding process or is he a free agent?

Teaching here so I must be quick. From Charles Pierce:

"On behalf of all Red Sox fans, I'd like to tell the team's management how happy I am that they now owe J.D. Drew only $56 million. I'm starting to come around on merit pay for general managers.

$56 million.

Jesus wept."

Trey Hillman is the only interview I've ever done between the hours of 1 and 6 a.m.

27 Kuroda has an opt-out clause in his contract, which would make him a free agent.

22
Yep, the A's have recently been built on defense, when they could no longer afford the high OBP guys.

Tulowitski replacing Barmes.
Morales/Jiminez in the rotation.

Those 3 things are the main differences between this year and last year.

The rapid development of Tulo has been unreal and made all the difference.

28--I'm not sure why so many columnist hate JD Drew.

Even this year, in a down season, Drew still put up a .373 OBP, along with a .796 OPS.

If he plays CF, he's worth every penny even in a down year.

I think the lesson that can be learned from the Rockies and Tigers is how important defense is with this absurd pitching market.

Not exactly.
The Rockies and Tigers finished 2nd in the NL/AL in runs scored during the regular season.

The "scoring runs" part of winning seems to have played a bigger role in them winning than preventing runs.

I'd be very leary of put so much value on defense, at the expense of hitting/pitching.

33. I think the good thing to do would be for Ned to send over Juan Pierre and Nomar for JD Drew. Then it's almost like revenge for taking Drew from us and leaving us with Juan Pierre. And the Sox get a decent 3B to replace Lowell and be able to leave Youk at 1B.

Can someone explain why Hershiser would be a good manager choice? All I can tell is he was a good pitcher and local hero. But I've seen nothing that would make me go out of my way to hire him as manager.

But maybe I'm missing something.

32 Morales threw 39 innings in place of Cook, I don't think that made a huge difference.

17 - It's funny because the bloggers are the ones that do the fact checking.

34 True, but I meant from a run prevention standpoint.

36 He seems to be a smart guy with good baseball sense as well as a willingness to look at stats. I think that's most of it. That and he's a Dodger hero.

Can someone explain why Hershiser would be a good manager choice?

I'd like to hear Michael Scott answer that question.

But Drew is not playing CF, he is being paid (and maybe wrongly) as a 25-30 HR guy not to a good OPS centerfielder.

That's how Boras markets him.

And that is why he is viewed as a disappointment.

If he made 8-10 million a year, played good defense in center and then did his standard offense, than he would get some slack.

But he doesn't.

Bluebleeder could tell you why but I'd hate for him to get banned again.

43 Huh?

42 - But of course, compared to the Carlos Lee signing it's not too terrible.

Who here wouldn't want an outfield of JD/Kemp/Ethier going forward?

46 - I guess it would be worth an extra $20 million

47 - cont'd

I'd rather have Young/Kemp/Ethier and then save up for Santana, though

24 Larry Dierker says no.

Where's Shimmin?

Bacon Candy Bar:

http://www.boingboing.net/2007/10/18/bacon-candy-bar.html

Joe Torre is not coming to L.A. this year. For no other reason than he turned down 5 mil to work? McCourt won't pay him that when we have a manager under contract.

Grady is our manager. Now if things don't start out too well, I don't think we'll be very patient. But making a move now doesn't make much sense.

50 - I think there was something in the book of Revelation about this: right after the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, there were the Three Candy Bars of the Nausea.

51 - Has Frank ever exhibited any patience or good judgement before? Be prepared to defend your assertion with examples.

50
Most necessary invention ever.

51 - He turned down the performance incentives, not the lump sum money. $5M would still make him the highest paid manager in the bigs. It was pretty clear to him that the Yankees simply made him an offer he could only refuse. This way the Yanks can move on, and Torre gets to save face. I bet Torre is as excited as anyone to finally get out.

42--I always thought Drew was marketed as a good all around player. He had a down year this year in terms of power, but overall its not like the guys sucks.

A .373 OBP is a .373 OBP.

Its just that some of the traditional baseball media doesnt see the value on OBP, OPS, etc...not traditional baseball GMs...and both are focusing on HR/RBI's.

Carlos Beltran OPS'ed .744 his first year in NY. Sometimes good players have down years and bounce back.

Why are the Rocks so hot? Why did the Cards win last year? Were the Cubs a better team than the Dodgers?

So many factors turn things around slightly in a set period of time. Luck is a big factor. Pure luck. So is timing, circumstance, and assigned match-ups.

Examples:

1. If the Rocks don't hit two late inning home runs off the back end of our bullpen, do they even make the playoffs? Just not hitting one of those and they are on vacation at the end of September.

2. If the Dodgers win one more game last year (like April 30, 2006!), then we win the division and we play St. Louis in the first round. Does St. Louis handle us the way they did SD? Who knows. Luck. They got to play SD and got to face NY Mets when their lack of pitching depth hurt them more, in a seven game series.

3. Rocks sign Matt Herges, he has a great year. Who saw this coming. They pick up Kaz Matsui as a discard. Great moves or luck? Bringing up young pitchers late in the season and they hang in there enough to win some games. Lucky stretch, or are they true and solid major league arms? I say right now it is a good stretch, but if up for a length of time, MLB hitters could figure them out.

4. If Wakefield doesn't deflect the ball on Tuesday night and Pedroia turns a double-play, the seven run inning is only a one-run inning. A few inches and the game is totally different. Luck. Circumstance.

5. MLB makes schedules. Who you play and when during the season are determining factors in team records.

6. Did we really go 6 for 100 with RISP at one point this year? Did we forget how to hit, or did luck play a factor?

7. Smith's pinch hit basehit in game four of the Rocks series falls as a blooper to keep a 2 out inning alive. Rocks open the game up. If that ball is caught, D-Backs are out of the inning. Different game, eh.

The Dodgers just need to have some things fall our way next year. A good core of talent, solid leadership, consistent pitching and defensive, and a bit of luck. We got Saito out of nowhere. Boston picked up a discarded David Ortiz. Every team needs a shot in the arm like that.

33 - because JD Drew is dour. Same reason why so many fans just shrugged when he left. There are a lot of people that are rubbed the wrong way by a guy who has one of the greatest jobs in the history of the world and doesn't seem to appreciate it. And then there's the whole Philly draft issue.

48 - agreed, except for the saving up for Santana part.

I read an article about the Rockies during the September stretch run where Matt Holliday was beaming about the young guys (Holliday, Atkins, and Tulo) giving everything they had and leaving it all out there on the field for Todd Helton because he had never been in the postseason. I couldn't help but contrast that attitude with the current dismal status of our clubhouse where our "veteran leaders" inspired nothing remotely close to that kind sentiment. Helton had come off an uncharacteristic down season sparking plenty of preseason trade rumors, but Helton's a true pro and obviously a real leader which is something I wish our "veteran leaders" could've picked up on. Helton could've went the Kent/Gonzo route and turned the season into a selfish ploy to revitalize a waning career, but the highest-paid Rockie of all time battled through and inspired a team of youngsters to grow up and win as a team.

57 - I'm tired of the luck argument. Really, if it's all about luck, then the stats don't matter. Stats show skill, correct? If each PA or play is all about luck, then the stats are absolutely meaningless. It's one or the other, skill or luck.

The Rockies won the pennant because over the course of the season and the playoffs they played better than the rest of the National League. They were better. Period.

I think Torre had a guranteed 5 mil with up to three mil in incentives, right?

The 5 mil per year is more than the Dodgers would pay a manager. I know Torre turned it down as it was a pay cut in guaranteed money. I just don't think as we look at 08 that we'd consider the move on a financial level even if we thought he was the guy who could put the team on the same page.

Just speculating.

6. I heard a rumor that Rockies upper management and ownership are very religious. Supposedly they only draft and sign players within the same religion with the intentions of keeping a happy clubhouse. Has anyone heard anything like this?

I just read about that yesterday in last week's Sports Illustrated (October 15, 2007). If you have a copy handy you'll find it on page 40.

62 I guess that explains why they're team white guy with sunglasses.

60 "It's one or the other, skill or luck."

I think it is both. I am not implying nor saying talent, skill, effort, etc. are factors to be ignored. That is not my point. I am simply stating and I still absolutely believe that luck and circumstance factor into who wins and when. Perhaps not always and not as the deciding factor, but they do indeed influence outcomes.

57 April 30, 2006... boy, do I remember that game.

Here's the thing -- that game was the Beginning of the End of the Danys Baez era. That was the game where many people who previously thought that the guy might be OK changed their position to "We gotta keep on eye on this guy." I believe, though I could be wrong and I'm too lazy to look it up, that it was The End of the Lance Carter era, if such an era actually existed.

So let's say that Carter finishes that one up fine and Baez never comes in. Maybe they both stay with the Dodgers a little longer and the team loses multiple other games instead.

Change one thing, change the world, grasshopper.

The girl I share my office just hugged Derek Jeter in the lobby. Anyone within the vicinity of the Starbucks near the Century City mall can run over and shake hands with Captain Clutch if they run over in the next 5 minutes. I think I'll stay put with my spreadsheets.

58 - every time a Drew family member gets picked off base, an angel gets their wings.

62 I find that very hard to believe. Gabe Kapler was on that team for some time, he's a member of my tribe.

That would be a very shallow and simplistic viewpoint to base who you want on your team.

64 - What annoys me about the luck argument is that it is arbitrarily used to explain an outcome.

Everyone says that the Rockies got lucky, but they won as many games as Arizona (granted they had one extra game) which means they had the second best regular season record in the NL. If the 20 wins at the end of the season were spread across the year, instead of bunched at the end, would anyone be calling them lucky?

65 The last of Lance Carter. He started that inning and Baez was sent to save him. We wasted 8 innings of shut out work from D. Lowe. The Pads were on the carpet and ready to fold that year too. A really bad stretch. They took off at that point.

I agree with your assessment, change one thing, and it all changes in resonse.

66 - You might want to santitize your office now. STD's aren't airborne, but you never know...

70 - If we reverse 4/30/06, don't we also have to reverse the 4+1 game? You can't cherry pick against karma.

I'll gladly keep things as they are, including the by-products of that 4/30 game (the banishments of Baez and Carter).

69 I think you're missing a key part of paranoid's point.

Another way to put it is that "you make your own luck." The Rockies put together a very good team that was capable of getting to the World Series. They hit well and play good defense. Like any very good -- or even great -- team, they required a few bounces to go their way. That's not a knock on them; like I said, they were in a position to have those bounces go their way because they were so good to begin with.

Any team that wins 21 out of 22 at any point in the season is a very good team that has had some luck on their side.

67-every time a Drew is benched agianst a lefty, Jack Bauer kills a terrorist.

69 I absolutely do not attribute the Rocks overall success to luck. Nothing close to it. But luck has been a factor in getting them from being a good young team developing into a winning team, into being in the WS this year.

As far as the Rock story goes, I love it. I wish it was us. I wish we didn't lose seven to them in Sept, but as long as we were out of it and got our 83 wins, I'm very happy for them and it gives me a fun team to pull for.

However, I still stand by my belief that a few things went their way. While over time these things likely balance out for all teams and people, when it makes a small difference at the right time, it can make a really big difference overall. Just my opinion. If you disagree, you can still come to my birthday party. I've been wrong before, but I indeed feel strongly about this particular opinion. Gotta run now. Be well my Dodger friends. I'm hoping for a seven game ALCS series and a seven game WS.

73 - "you make your own luck" - so, you have skill that over comes superstitions?

76 - Luck favors the prepared, or whatever that saying is.

76 Well, that's a particularly uncharitable way of putting it, but in a sense, yes. It doesn't matter how lucky you are if your team is bad.

You seem to be arguing that luck plays no role. Maybe I'm wrong and not understanding your point -- if so, please explain. But if so, I don't get it. Chance plays a role in everything.

62. I went to SI and looked up the article online:

Rocktoberfest

>> The Rockies off the field are like the small-campus fraternity that gets involved in community projects, has a solid cumulative GPA and attends chapel regularly. The organization drew fire last season, in fact, when chairman and CEO Charlie Monfort implied, strongly, that the team looks to fill its roster with Christians, and general manager Dan O'Dowd added that "God has definitely had a hand" in some of the moves Colorado made and the games it won. (This season's 90-73 finish marked the fifth time in the franchise's 15-year existence that it ended with a winning record.) The subject hasn't surfaced this season, and O'Dowd said last week that the no-one-but-Christians-wanted angle was overblown. "Many people in this organization have a ton of faith, and I'm certainly one of them," says O'Dowd, who has been with Colorado since September 1999. "But it's not anything we talk about. Our focus is on getting players of good character. When you combine character with talent and nurture it within your own system, you have a good chance of succeeding. That's finally happened here." <<

http://tinyurl.com/2p9lox

72 Good points. I'm not sure 4 plus 1 would be a necessary and big win for us if SD doesn't get back into a winning mode with the 4/30 game. We'll never know.

I remember thinking they might have canceled each other out. I also remember a few of the games we let get away that might have been that one that made us the Wild Card instead of winning the division. Maybe SD had a few too. Either way, it was so close and it might have made a difference if we had home field for five games against STL instead of on the road against NYM.

I do not miss Carter or Baez. And I thought that was a good trade at the time. I though Danys would fill in for Gagne that year. I don't miss those guys. Carter was gone to the minors after that, took us to July to get rid of Baez. I'm sure he cost us a few more games before he left.

Gotta run!

75 - Don't mean to beat up on you on this. I just find it funny that so many people who purport to rely on objective statistics and rational will dismiss good play as being lucky.

A crazy bounce (or bad call) maybe changes the course of a game, and a team may use that game to build a winning streak. To me, that's not luck, it's the psychological reaction of very good athletes.

Here's another way of putting it:

I like to play board games. My particular habit is getting way out in front of my opponents and then try to hold on as they chip away at my lead. It works enough -- about a third of the time -- that I haven't really changed my strategy.

Sometimes, my friends like to parse my victories -- why weren't we able to catch Humma? Well, he got lucky on his fourth turn when he ______________.

To some extent, it's true. I do get lucky sometimes. Another way of looking at it is that I look at what I have in hand and formulate a strategy around my assets.

Did my strategy work? Or did I get lucky? Or both?

78 - not saying luck plays no role. Just that it is overrated.

Perhaps it's my time as a poker pro and dealing with people who would rather be lucky than good. Good players (and teams) do not need to rely on luck, bad players (and teams) need luck to win. At least, that's my take on life.

81 But you can't deny that luck plays a part. There's a reason that the best teams in baseball win only 60% of the time. A grounder that just gets past an outstretched fielder is luck. Hitting 50 points higher with runners in scoring position is luck. Stranding 90% of the opponents runners on base is luck. So much of baseball comes down to chance.

Now, would we be calling the Rockies lucky if they just played like this all season? No. They had the best pyhtagorean record in baseball. However, no team can win 20 of 21 and chalk it purely up to skill. There are tons of instances in the Rockies stretch where if things just went slightly differently, it would have been over.

83 I can agree with your second paragraph. The thing I'd add is that if you're a good player AND lucky, you can w