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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 35-27 (.565)
When Jon attended: 4-3 (.571)
When Jon didn't: 31-24 (.564)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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Baseball Toaster runs on some experimental software called Fairpole. It's still under development.
For more information, please visit the Fairpole blog, or read the FAQ.
Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus advances the argument that the Dodgers should hang onto the status quo rather than make a strong push to improve the roster through trade or free agency - taking it a step further by advising the team to say no to Alex Rodriguez.
Play. The. Kids. The Dodgers simply need to deploy their existing assets correctly, rather than seek help from elsewhere. To get a bit more specific about it, next year's lineup should look as follows:
SS Furcal
C Martin
1B Loney
2B Kent
LF Kemp
RF Ethier
3B LaRoche
CF Pierre
That group would be significantly better than league average at two positions (catcher and second base), slightly better than average at three positions (shortstop, left field, and probably first base), about average in right field, and slightly below at center and third (though not for long in Andy LaRoche's case, especially with Nomar Garciaparra serving as his caddy). Overall, it's one of the better position player groups in the league. So then you take the money you're saving yourself on Luis Gonzalez and spend it on a mid-level starting pitcher, to round out a rotation with Penny, Lowe, Schmidt, and Chad Billingsley. Coupled with the great one-two punch in the bullpen, that is also an above-average group. That's it. You're done. You've spent next to nothing--and you still have a potential pennant winner on your hands. It looks like about an 88-win core that can creep into the 90s if the veterans stay healthy. ...
There is no bigger disconnect in baseball between the Dodgers' ability to develop talent and the front office's lack of appreciation for that talent.
Silver predicts the Rockies will fall into the trap of failing to improve a team that overachieved, but that Arizona and San Diego will tinker upward.
Also, Silver seems to be falling into the trap of assembling the best team for your dollar, rather than the best team period. The Dodgers have money to spend this offseason, they should spend it on something that impoves the team.
Who coined the phrase/name Darth Flanders? Genius.
"A bit surprising, but it does fit in with Ned's Darth Vader like tolerance for failure."
http://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/855301.html#226
Carlos Silva? Though I would prefer Schilling for about $3 mil more for one year rather than paying Silva $10 mil/4 years.
I get much more giddy over a Loney/Hu/Arod/LaRoche lineup then a Loney/Kent/Furcal/Arod lineup for the future.
He is still really good and hasn't really shown any signs of slowing down with his peripherals.
I also agree with the premise of putting the best team on the field with the players that you have and are available. I just can't see a scenario where we could not afford to pay ARod.
Conservatively, we have about $32 million coming off the payroll this year, though about 5-10 of that will go back into the bench, bullpen, and a catcher. Next year we have over 30 million coming off with Kent, Nomar, and Lowe all becoming FA and all would have viable, cheap internal options (Abreu, Elbert/Mcdonald/Kershaw).
We truly can afford this guy. Why should we not?
I think you would improve the overall pitching substantially.
I just don't see the need for Rivera with Brox/Saito in the pen and Meloan in the wings. I would rather see that $12 million go somewhere else or have that money go to eating Pierre's salary and sending him somewhere.
For God's sake, Coco Crisp is being mentioned in rumors. We could unload Pierre if we ate half of his salary and just called it a day.
Does showing lots of power in the majors count?
get rid of Kent, get rid of Furcal, get rid of Pierre...ARod's salary is covered for a couple of years at least...
if Hu can't cut it, ARod moves back to SS and we try LaRoche
Of course its not a need but if we are trying to improve the team, this would be one way of doing it. Having an absurdly deep bullpen offsets a mediocre back of the rotation. We are not really restrained by costs and if offensive help isn't feasible, might as well improve your strength with one of the best.
Furcal was injured this season. A line of .300/.369/.445 is not no-hit.
Ethier doesn't get injured by his manager after temper tantrums.
I still think that Ethier for Bradley fiasco ranks right up there with the Pedro/DeLino deal as one of the dumbest in Dodger history
Are you saying that was a bad move? If nothing else Ethier has been a healthy league average guy.
I do not agree, but I think it is moot anyway since he has signed his contract already according to the NY papers.
24 Its quite a stretch to classify Furcal a non hitter and Loney with no power.
Arod for 2008: 305/410/583 44hr 16sb
Rivera for 2008: 2.40era 75IP 3hr 14bb 66k
Unless you just don't like Alex Rodriguez.
lol
As for ARod, if he couldn't hit in the playoffs with what surrounded him in the Yankee lineup the last few years, why would anyone think he would do so for us?
Calling it the dumbest trade since Delino/Pedro is to be pretty ignorant of recent Dodger history, which is filled with some truly bad deals.
Why I think this was a good move:
Bradley 2006: 2.8 Warp1, $3millon
Bradley 2007: 3.3 Warp1, $4million
Ethier 2006: 2.8 Warp1, <$400k
Ethier 2007: 4.5 Warp1, <$400k
If you want to balance things out:
Antonio Perez 2006: -0.8 Warp1
When you consider salaries, Bradley's now in his contract year, and Ethier's a year away still from arbitration. Bradley would go for his free agent value on this market for 2008, when Ethier will produce similar results for around the league minimum.
Of course, if keeping Bradley would have prevented signing Pierre, that changes the whole thing, but that's speculation. But for what it's worth, Bradley played CF for 15 games after being traded from LA, and probably isn't that viable an option there after all the injuries he's had.
" ... there's no other way to explain A-Rod's postseason performances. You probably know about his 4-for-47 slump and his streak of 14 games without an RBI, but this is the most telling stat: Since Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS - the night Boston began its epic comeback from three games down against the Yankees - Rodriguez has come to the plate with 38 runners on base, over the span of 59 at-bats. He left every single one on base, going 0-for-27, right through the Yanks' Division Series loss to Cleveland this month."
Dude has averaged 128 runs, 34 doubles, 44hr, 128rbi with a .306 avg and .967ops in 11 seasons..Dude has missed 19 games since the 2000 season.
If Bradley for example only missed 19 games for each half a season it would good for him. Bradley was my personal dodger MVP in 2004. I don't buy into the clubhouse issues as much as others, but he just can't stay healthy which is his bigger problem for me anyways.
Also, Petit is not going anywhere. If he was he would be near the top of my list of players to go get.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071031&content_id=2289336&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
As for your second point, I think it's what A-Rod has done year after year in the regular season that makes people think that he will hit in the playoffs.
How every GM "negotiating" with Boras doesn't harp on this factoid is beyond me. Boras doesn't hesitate to cherry-pick small-sample-sized-stats to make his players look better than they are: GMs shouldn't hesitate to use the same tactics to make the players look worse.
I hate that.
In the massive volume of A-Rod/Dodger/Torre/Boras articles in the last few days, I can't remember where I picked that up from. But I do remember reading it.
Get in the playoffs and let the chips fall where they may.
As a power hitter and third baseman, Rodriguez would fill two areas targeted for upgrades. But Boras is believed to consider the Dodgers a more serious contender for center fielder Andruw Jones than for Rodriguez.
Who knows what evil lurks in Andruw Jones's locker?
Boras makes it sound like the Dodgers aren't good enough for A-Rod. Man, I can't stand that guy.
But as a GM, you shouldn't approach the contract negotiations that way. You gotta go in harping on ARod's lack of Clutchitude and Octoberocity, and how he shouldn't get paid as much as Boras wants him to.
Bob laughs in your general direction. Course, he's wearing a Ham Fighter jersey today, so you can go ahead and laugh right back.
I'm wearing no such jersey.
I'm wearing a jersey that reads "Nippon Ham."
Don't let him hear you say that.
desea Fernando vivo
that being said ... this year's a-rod's struggles during the ALDS really seemed different to me than the last couple of years ... he was very close to clicking ... he was missing his pitches, no doubt, but he was just off a fraction and having good at-bats ... every game he seemed to be getting closer to going beserk and having the kind of stretch where he could hit anyone and anything ... i think that if the yanks could have gotten to boston, he might have had the kind of series to erase the past and the doubts
or he could have tightened up under the added pressure of having to play the hated-foes, who knows, but i don't think he has some sort of permanent mental block that keeps him from performing in the post-season ... i think he just needs to get that 1st big hit again and things will be better than fine ... time will tell, i suppose
I'm in the other camp. I want nothing to do with Andruw Jones. Actually, I guess I'd be fine swapping him with Pierre straight up, but that's not an option.
A lot of people don't like the guy, and constantly harping on his recent playoff performance seems the equivalent of poking him with a stick. Barry Bonds didn't do it in the playoffs either, until he did.
He performs at the highest level under the microscope all year, every year. EVERY player slumps at times. Some of his have come during some postseason games. His team wouldn't have been in the postseason if he didn't make MAJOR contributions to put them there. In 2004, he was 7 for 16 after the first four games.
If you don't want to pay him, or you don't want to deal with Boras, or anything like that, then you have a legitimate opinion about the matter. I resepectfully disagree, but you can hold your postion with some substance behind your thinking. If you are simply saying you don't want him because of a short period slump, or that he isn't a great player, then you simply don't follow the game with your eyes open.
We are talking about the Henry Aaron or Babe Ruth of the 21st Century. The absolute best player available with a very productive past. He's in his prime. He is a 3 time MVP with more likely to come. He's worth $30 million per year. At least. If you don't take a shot at signing him without giving up more than a few draft picks, who is a better player to pursue? Nobody.
The only thing that's important is that I recognize that I'm watching a hell of a ballplayer when I see them play.
as for the ease of defending a-rod, well, i'll just say you'll find it trickier than you think, he's on the short list of best players i'll ever see play in my lifetime ... but, wow, does he have a talent for saying and doing headscratching things ... add to that his less-than-pleasant reputation to the average fan(this is now the 3rd set of fans that loathe him), the mercenary reputation (he gets bonus point for being the highest paid player, so pass GO and collect $200 worth of player-salary hatin') and the "ewing theory" factor where the teams he leaves get better and yup, you spend a lot of time trying to bring the conversation back to the great things he does on the field ...
and that discussion, of course, always returns to production in the post-season ... never mind that often he's the difference between making the post-season or not ...
in the end, a-rod controls his own destiny ... have a post-season like BLB's 2002 and this all goes away (except for the couldn't-do-this-in-new-york crackpots) ... but i wonder what happens if a-rod doesn't hit in his first post-ny post-season and it all starts up again in his new home ...
http://www.joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/
It is just since the "contract" he's had trouble.
I would think that would be a banning offense.
Some of us like to like the player we root for.