Might as well repost this since it's directly on topic.

The Dodgers have enough resources that it's entirely possible to fill the holes made in a large trade for Cabrera. For example: Kemp, Kershaw, LaRoche for Cabrera. Cabrera fills LaRoche's spot, Hunter, Rowand or Jones replaces Kemp and then you sign Sabathia, Santana or Sheets the following offseason to replace Kershaw.

It's not nearly as cost effective, and the centerfielder trifecta probably isn't quite as good as Kemp, but you aren't stranded with Delwyn or Stulton getting any useful amount of time.

------------------

Because of this, I disagree with the idea that Lohse will have to replace Kershaw. I can't see him breaking into the rotation anytime before mid August, and even then we'd have to have some severe injuries for that to happen. You need to look ahead to 2009 to determine his replacement, which for now looks a lot more promising.

The only way that I would call any trade for Miguel Cabrera a bad idea is if we included both Kemp and Billingsley. Everything else, at worst falls into "time will tell".

I might be tempted to give up Kemp OR Billingsley in a deal for Cabrera, but not both. No way. Those guys aren't prospects, those are two of the best players in our lineup and rotation. Cabrera's great, but that deal weakens the team. It's subtraction by addition.

Kershaw is a little tougher to draw a line in the sand around. TINSTAAPP, and all that.

1 - I didn't say Lohse would have to replace Kershaw. But I expect that, even knowing that Kershaw isn't scheduled to arrive until late summer, Colletti's craving for starting pitching depth won't allow him to avoid signing a free agent pitcher this offseason, whether it's Lohse or someone else.

Buster Olney says that the Dodgers are making a "heavy play" for Aaron Rowand...

Not sure what to make of that.

2 - It's my personal feeling that Ned would consider Billingsley an untouchable at this point in any package deal.

And what if Sabathia, Santana, and Sheets are off the market by then or signed by other teams?

1, 3 - In other words, Kershaw figures into the depth equation now, even if he isn't scheduled to come up now.

5
I guess that would make Russ and Bills the only two that we could probably pencil into the lineup next year. I still think that we should see what we could get for Furcal, though I really can't see Colletti assuming that Hu could walk in and do the job.

5 I doubt very much this would happen, but if the Marlins would take Billingsley, LaRoche, and prospect not named Kershaw, then I think Colletti would go for it.

I hope you're right though. Billingsley ought to be next to Martin at the top of the Untouchables list.

You all must have forgot what the standings were around mid-season last year...at one point the Red Sox were the only MLB team with a better record than us...give LaRoche a chance. if Schmidt gets healthy and close to his old self, with Penny, Lowe, Bills, and hopefully the significant pitcher Colletti is talking about bringing in we will be in good shape..i figure Torre is good for a couple of extra wins too...and some relief pitchers wouldnt hurt.

From FJM, Ken Tremendous, April 2007

Derek Jeter's Career Splits:
317/.388/.463

Derek Jeter's Career Postseason splits:
.314/.384/.479

"Mr. Clutch is actually Mr. Exactly the Same No Matter What Month You Are Talking About. He is Mr. Equally Excellent Hitting SS Every Month from April to November. He is Mr. Outrageously Similar Statistics Every 30 Days."

I know the guys at FJM don't beleive in Clutch, and I'm not sure I do either, at least in baseball. But to say that Jeter's slugging performance is the same in regular vs. postseason is just wrong.

He's slugged 16 points higher in the post season. Not a tremendous difference, but significant.

At least significant enought for Ken not to try and prove a point with the slugging numbers he compared.

If you are a Marlins fan, would you rather have Andy LaRoche for the next 6 years or Miguel Cabrera for the next 2? Dealing him for a major league ready touted 3B prospect makes so much sense from their side. Florida might be overplaying their hand a la Jim Bowden with Soriano. 2 years of Miggy is not worth 18 years of service time for LaRoche/Kemp/pitcher.

Rowand has just been moved from my "Want to happen" list to my "Don't want to happen" list.

4 is more hot steam from the hot stove, but you can bet that if Rowand somehow ends up here he'll do no better than he did this year. Talk about hot and cold! There's potential for a big regression here.

It's amazing that so many problems were created by just one player who now does not exist at DT.

ok, can someone explain the line of thinking behind "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect"? I don't get the rational for a statement like that. A player is either: a prospect; a major leaguer; or a career minor leaguer. Or am I missing something?

This was LAT'd but fits here better (reposted with numerous typos fixed!):

Maybe this is too emotional a way of looking at the whole thing, but at this point, having watched the Dodgers' prospects come to the league, I really want the chance to watch them develop together. I just want it. I want to see if Matt Kemp is a star to be or if he is just another trash-can mover. I want to see if James Loney can chase .400 some year.

Looking at how baseball works these days, and the economics of building around young players, and watching the Nationals be unable to trade Soriano or a scorching-hot Dmitri Young or Chad Cordero for top-tier prospects because other teams value those young players so highly, I also think it is smart to maximize what you are getting from your own farm and then to backfill with FA signings.

But it really has become emotional for me. The Dodgers are blessed to have such a big core of young players coming to the league at the same time. They have the top pitching prospect in all of baseball! Wow. What fun.

Let's play two!

4 - Oh lord, take me now...

6 Then we go after Lowe or Perez.

7 Of course, but I don't think we really notice that he's gone until 2010. I think we get into the pitcher bidding war of the 2008 offseason regardless of who we have. I also think that we go to McDonald before we go to Kershaw. Until Penny and Schmidt leave, I don't think he's guaranteed a spot in the rotation (and I have to believe Penny won't be allowed to leave the team, especially if we get cut out of the Sabathia/Santana/Sheets sweepstakes).

By then, we have guys like Elbert and Orenduff who aren't amazing now, but who knows by then. Greg Miller and Edwin Jackson were just as good as Kershaw at this point, and things happened. I really believe that so long as you play your cards correctly, we can afford to lose Kershaw.

14 Pitchers are far more likely do to things like blow out their elbows and become useless.

18 - that's it? A higher risk of injury? Wow, I would have thought there was more to it than that.

i'll say it again....we had the second best record in the MLB at one point around mid-season...RELAX EVERYONE!

with a few minor fixes, maybe get rid of pierre somehow, and add Jones, add a relief pitcher and a starter

Torre is good for few wins over Grady.

Loney and Kemp playing a full season.

we will be ok..

why get rid of these guys after we kept them for so long to get to this point?

19 I think it's also the idea that little things are far more likely to have a huge effect on pitchers. A guy loses a little velocity, suddenly batters don't have to respect his fastball enough so his breaking stuff becomes hittable, etc. I'm not an expert on the subject though.

I believe it's also more difficult for pitchers to stay at an elite level for as long a time as a hitter.

15 - That's basically been my POV all along. I'm just trying to be open-minded.

I feel like trading away the youth is a bigger betrayal of the Dodger youth than signing a high-priced free agent, even if we're trading for more youth. I've got no problem with adding an A-Rod. But getting rid of Matt Kemp or Billingsley or both kind of turns me off. And of course we've have to sign a couple free agents anyway to fill the void.

I'd still be perfectly content to add LaRoche as starting 3B, replacing Juan Pierre with Young (or even Andruw Jones), make a couple small signings, and largely sticking with the team we have. I wouldn't be against trading for Cabrera necessarily, but I'm content not to.

not to mention we got mcdonald and kershaw comin in the next year or two.

i know its a stretch because of injuries and the fact that its always a stretch with young pitchers but...i think we look good for the next 10 years with the guys we got.

24 thats exactly what i said in 20. i am glad someone here has a level head.

15 Er, yeah. That, too.

21 - it just seems strange to me... would anyone seriously not consider Pedro Martinez a top flight prospect at age 19? Or Barry Zito? Or Santana? Or {insert favorite young pitcher's name here}?

There are a lot of little things that can effect guys at the plate, or in the field - and can happen at any time, like Sax and Knoblach forgetting how to throw the ball from second to first. I've also seen guys who get a hickup in their swing.

Nonetheless, it's an interesting psychological point.

I probably would NOT make a Kemp-Kershaw-LaRoche for MCAB trade. I wouldn't give up both Kemp and Kershaw unless the Marlins gave us more in return (Just say no to Dontrelle) or we gave them Ethier plus a mid level prospect instead. The best case scenario mentioned by Jon is predicated on being able to sign all these other FAs like Hunter/Lohse. What happens if they and others like A.Jones sign elsewhere. I don't like the idea of making huge trades and basing it on possible FA signings that may or may not happen. I say "No" unless either Kemp or Kershaw is pulled out of that deal. And of course MCAB would have to agree to a long-term deal, with no opt out clause. His value then goes down if he can't play 3B in a few years...
vr, Xei

Rowand sports a career 5.7% walk rate and has played in two HR-friendly parks. His away numbers the last two years are around .285/.350/.460 with 16 HR, almost exactly what Ethier is projected at for 2008. Of course Rowand has one thing Ethier does not have. It starts with R and ends with G.

28 Of course they would. Just like people consider Phil Hughes, Gallardo and Joba top prospects today. It's just that it's more likely something terrible will happen to a pitcher. There's almost no doubt that Alex Gordon will be a good player seven or eight years for now, you can't say the same thing about pitchers.

Sorry for the long post but the guy on the other thread who said that those of us who advocated doing nothing had low expecations bugged the crap out of me.

I've stated here and on true blue that I think we'd be better off doing nothing then signing bloated free agents and making the kind of trades that Ned has made the last two years. Other then CF I don't see a week spot on the team. Now if Juan Pierre was going to become a reserve then I don't see a problem with
Loney,Kent,Furcal,Laroche,Martin,Kemp,Pierre,Ethier for 2008. I don't have the same expectations that many here have for them but I think a team that has six players with an OPS of plus 800 will score enough runs to win quite a few games with a pitching staff of Billingsley, Penny, Lowe, Schmidt, Loaiza, McDonald, Elbert, Kuo, and Kershaw.

If they are okay with making Juan a reserve or eating his contract and sending him somewhere else, I also would be open to A Jones or even Tory Hunter playing CF for us. Sure they would be overpaid and they could both kill us at the end of the contracts but no one can deny the upgrade to the team of Jones or Hunter in CF as long as it means Juan Pierre is not playing.

Of course all that was said before the bright penny of Miggy Cabrera came on the market. I'm more then willing to jettison some of the youth for Miggy. His type of hitting skills don't come around very often. As Regarfield said, even if we overpay, the worse that could happen is that Miggy is on the team. I've already stated what I would trade for him and that I would only trade for him if an extension is signed. Otherwise with Arod off the market I feel the team as it currently stands is good enough right now to compete for the NL championship for the next 5 years. After 2009, depending on how Ned allocates extensions for the kids the budget will only be $40,000,000 and with that brings in a ton of flexibility.

What do we currently have:
1st - Loney - he can't be as good as he was in Sept. He can be as good as Mark Grace and that is a very good baseball player.
2nd - Kent - still can hit, I think he will falter in 2008 due to health, but with Abreu and Hu ready to step in, at least the defense will see a huge upgrade. I'd like to see Richie Weeks playing 2nd base for us in the future. If the cost is Broxton I could live with it.
SS - Furcal - in 2006 he was the MVP of the team and a top 10 MVP player in the league. He'll bounce back, he's in a walk year, expect a solid year. Going forward, Hu in 2009 will mimic his skills minus the base running.
3rd - LaRoche - I feel LaRoche if healthy will become the best hitter of the kids and should give us Todd Zeile/Tim Wallach like production with solid defense in his early years and rival Ron Cey in his peak years. He would hit better then Lowell right now in Dodger Stadium.
C - Russel Martin - Perennial all-star catcher, as he battles Brain McCann for the starting job over the next 5 years.
LF - Andre Etheir - One of the best defensive right fielders, should become the best defensive LF in the NL. He's not perfect but a 800-830 OPS will do just fine. Sure we can upgrade here and the minors have no options so it would be either a trade or free agency. Not seeing any LF that I'd buy right now, I could take a chance on Bay if the Pirates wanted to swap left fielders. Bay's upside, if 2007 was due more to his knee surgery and less to a skill decline or PED issue is enough to take the chance.
RF - Matt Kemp-best home grown outfielder since Raul Mondesi and to my eyes Mondesi is the perfect comp. Great speed, great power, strong as an ox, great arm, terrible routes, and terrible plate discipline. If Matt Kemp learns some plate discipline he could be the best hitter since Sheffield, it not Mondesi is not a bad floor.
CF - Big hole, no future prospects. The Dodgers can win with JP playing CF but it makes it that much harder.

Starting Pitching:
Chad Billingsley - huge growth in 2007. He's as valuable as Matt Cain and we will have him for a long time.
Brad Penny - If he ever could put together two halves he'd be able to via for a Cy Young. Probably never going to happen but at least you know in the 1st half you'll have one of the best pitchers in the league and if he can just be league average in the 2nd half, you still have a valuable pitcher. Under contract for 2008 and 2009
D Lowe - still earning his money, but he'll be gone next year.
Schmidt - other then being expensive I cannot hazard a guess as to what he'll do for us.
Loiaza - if healthy he'll be a decent 5th starter though a bit expensive. Gone after 2008 and a contract that can be eaten if he blows.
Kuo - other then being cheap I cannot hazard a guess as to what he'll do for us. As far as skills go I'm still very high on him. As far as health goes I doubt I'll ever see the skills give us 100 innings.
DJ Houlton - not the worse option if we need a 5th starter
McDonald - 2007 was such a surprise he needs to show that he can stay healthy and that he's really this good.
Kershaw - Jim Callis thinks he should be in the rotation by July. If so, why trade for a pitcher when you might have the best one in baseball over the next 5 years waiting in the wings. Can he be our CC Sabathia? At age 20, CC did a solid job.
Elbert - once the top pitching prospect, he's now behind Kershaw and McDonald. On most teams he'd still be the top pitching prospect.

I don't know, seems to me the future is very very bright. Cory Hart should be playing on this team in CF.

Just imagine if Schmidt comes back and Kershaw develops as expected. Jason Schmidt would be the number 5 starter. Can any rotation in the NL come close to rivaling that?

I'd still sign Jon Leiber because I've always been a fan and I have no problem with having to much pitching. If Loaiza has to pitch out of the bullpen so be it.

17 , 6
I think it is important to think what this FA class could have been were it not for teams resigning their talent. Imagine how different the landscape would have been if these players had not been given extensions:

Oswalt
Vernon Wells
Ichiro
Kent
Zambrano
Aramis Ramirez

I am sure that there are more, but those are the ones that stand out. My point is that players are coming on the market in their prime less and less. I think that this trend will continue over the next couple of years. Every year there will be one or two real difference makers, but I think that we will see fewer above average guys make it to the market.

If the Dodgers want to make themselves better now and in the future, we can not count on what the market will make available and bear in the future.

or expectations

After reading up on things today, I'm starting to waver on going after Miguel Cabrera. By keeping all the young guys, the Dodgers would have a lot of depth for a relatively cheap price. With the money they would've spent on A-Rod or an extension for Cabrera, they could splurge on a starter and some relievers--maybe even Aaron Rowand or Torii Hunter.

If Colletti really wants to make a spalsh, he should deal Juan Pierre for anything he can get. That would be a prime example of addition by subtraction. Do it, Ned!

31 - fair enough. I guess it kind of strikes me as a doctrinal point that I just don't quite understand. But then, I try and not be too dogmatic when it comes to baseball and life.

33 I do agree, and I think there's almost no way all three of those guys make it to free agency. However, I'm not relying on any of those guys to make my ideas work.

19 It's just that there's more variables involved in the development of pitchers than around hitters.

To illustrate: 4 years ago, we were all just as high on Greg Miller as we are now on Kershaw. Last we saw of Greg, he had been demoted back down to AA, and his future as a big-leaguer looks very dim.

I like Jones, but though he could be really good again, my feeling is that he is on the decline. It's not just that he had his injuries last year and the cortisone shots. It's that his knees appear to be going away. Still he's probably the best outfielder I've seen in person.

There seems to be a lot of dislike for Rowand. What is that based on?

If they sign anyone I hope it means Pierre will be the most expensive 4th OFer in history

ESPN is reporting that we're hot on Rowand.

I think I'm going to be sick.

39 I really don't like guys who have career years on a contract year. Not to mention that he's been close to replacement level three of his five full time seasons.

32 is about as clear an explanation of the ARONS philosophy as any. I concur entirely.

We didn't get A-Rod. I'm disappointed, but if he wants to be a Yankee that much, what can you do. I'd have offered 10/300 over the 10/280 he got, but maybe that wouldn't have gotten it done.

So now do nothing and put the money, next year, into Santana, who is worth it. No Rowands, no Hunters, no Jonses. Do not give up the future for Cabrera, great as he is, when you can sign him in two years.

No A-Rod? OK. ARONS still applies.

39 If they sign Rowand, it means Kemp or Ethier is out the door. Colletti is not going to bench or trade his blunder, because it would magnify the blunderness of the blunder.

We're going to pay for his mistake one more year.

28. For every Pedro Martinez type you can name I can name a Ryan Anderson, Roger Salkeld, Brian Taylor, Bill Pulsipher, Rick Ankiel, Paul Wilson etc..

vr, Xei

Rowand is a horrible, unforgivable acquisiton

From, an Keith Law Chat on ESPN.com This made me feel better for a little bit, at least we arent the only ones hesitant to make the everyone for Miggy trade.

Fred (Austin, TX): Am I overvaluing Dodger prospects? It seems that any combination of three- Billingsley, Kemp, Kershaw, LaRoche or Loney is too high a price for a guy you can keep for two years. Maybe one of those guys (NOT Loney) plus Ethier, and eat much of Pierre's contract and maybe even a mid-level prospect (such as McDonald)

Keith Law: (2:04 PM ET ) I agree. If I'm Colletti, Kemp, Loney, Kershaw, and Billingsley are untouchable. I'd deal LaRoche, but I wouldn't be in a rush, and I'd like to give him one shot at the job first. Ethier I'd deal. Broxton & Meloan I'd deal. Elbert if/when he's healthy, Abreu, even Hu. But not the big four.

39
I am not down on Rowand per se, but he is, in my opinion, not a good fit for the Dodgers. Andruw Jones would be better because of the power that he brings to the table. I am still unsure about signing a CF without shipping Pierre, but if we were going to sign one, Jones would be a better fit.

Has it been mentioned that in 2005 Aaron Rowand Knew What It Took?

I'll take Miggy but if we're going to give up high ceiling pitching, I'd rather get Santana.

Does anyone else feel like they have yet to hear a rumor with a shred of credibility that actually makes them feel good about '08?

Examples might be "Dodgers to pursue Santana/Cabrera and actually are NOT opposed to requiring an extension negotiation window" or "Dodgers to consider platoon and pinch runner-hitter role for Pierre if free agent outfielder is signed". I'd personally like to hear "Dodgers close to deal with A-Rod, plan on dealing Furcal for prospects to help replenish those lost on inevitable trade for Johan Santana and GM Colletti to retire, claiming he is 'going out on the top of my game'; Pierre to be released." Maybe that's too long of a headline.

Didnt some talking head writer the other day predict Andruw Jones would be a Dodger? I forget where I heard it. Please no Rowand.

I agree with TOYC in #32. So much so that I am going to get a tattoo of what he said. Gonna have to be a really small font though.
vr, Xei

I loved being LATed.

For those who wonder why I among many are excited about the future, lets look back at the history of Dodger drafts prior to 2002 (Logan White's first season).

First Round Picks (1988-2001)

1988 - Bill Bene RHP
1989 - Jamie McAndrew RHP
1990 - Ron Walden P
1991 - No First Round Pick
1992 - Ryan Luzinski C
1993 - Darren Dreifort RHP
1994 - Paul Konerko C
1995 - David Yocum P
1996 - Damian Rolls 3B
1997 - Glenn Davis 1B
1998 - Bubba Crosby OF
1999 - Jason Repko OF
2000 - Ben Diggens P
2001 - No First Round Pick

Sure Konerko turned out to be a very good player (for the White Sox), Dreifort never quite lived up to being the 2nd player picked (behind A-Rod) but mostly dreck, not even servicable dreck for those years before Logan White.

I used 1988 is starting point because that was the last year when the Dodgers drafted two players that became All-Star caliber or good MLB players who played for many years for the Dodgers.

Piazza - 62nd Round Draft Pick (1988)
Karros - 6th Round Draft Pick (1988)
Hollandsworth - 3rd Round Pick (1991)
Jose Offerman - Amateur Free Agent (1986)
Raul Mondesi - Amateur Free Agent (1988)
Chan Ho Park - Amateur Free Agent (1994)

THe Dodgers drafted and signed Piazza, Karros in 1988. Todd Hollandsworth was drafted in the 3rd round (their fist pick) in 1991.

It is possible that more impact talent was drafted and signed in 2002 and 2003 since the late 1960's when Garvey, Cey, et. al., were first signed with the Dodgers.

That is why the Miggy deal is so disquieting to me, I can see the logic behind it, but I hope the Angels pull the trigger.

43
As Jon has stated before, Ned needs to win this year more then worry about covering his butt. If he wins, his past mistakes will be buried under the hubris of celebration. I don't see how getting Rowand/Hunter/Jones and putting JP in LF will make that happen unless he follows that up with trading a package that includes Kemp or Etheir for Miggy/Santana/Bedard.

51 BTW, those drafts do not foresee good things for Ivan DeJesus, Jr, Scott Van Slyke or Preston Mattingly.

52 I don't see how moving him to LF improves the odds of winning, either. But Ned Colletti might really think it's the way to improve.

Which is why most of us don't think Ned Colletti is very good at his job.

I thought this was interesting from Torre:

Don Mattingly (hitting coach) and Larry Bowa (third base coach) are following Torre from New York to Los Angeles. But Ron Guidry, expected to be replaced as Yankees pitching coach, isn't coming along.

"I talked to Gator and I told him that I really wanted to stay closer to the Dodger organization since they had a lot of young pitchers. I thought it was the best thing to do," Torre said. "He's just going to stay home."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3111423

44 - but lots of guys don't pan out, at every position. It's the nature of the business.

writeup of Lasorda/Plaschke at the Smithsonian.

(note -- I have not read this, and the bloggers are somewhat notorious for the fact that one of them has some professional connection to MASN which they don't disclose on their blog and yet they write glowing panegyrics to all things MASN).

http://tinyurl.com/28o7hv

54
True

How many times have DT posters started out a sentence "if the worse he does is...."

Sucks not having any confidence in your GM.

Rowand's closest B-ref comp is Eric Byrnes. Through Age 29 his 5th closest comp is Shea Hillenbrand. Pass!

55
I don't understand the quote. I read the article and the quote still makes no sense to me.

58 Moving what's-his-face to LF means that his biggest detriment is his arm. That's the biggest problem.

Not his batting
Not his batting
His arm.
We talkin' arms, man

That's a fundamental misunderstanding of the problem.

58
True...

I wonder what Billy Beane would do with $120 million. He is so good in the $60-70 million, I wonder what he could do with the Dodger payroll.

The only argument in favor of Pierre-to-LF that made any sense at all, to me, was this:

It's hard to find a good CF. Depending on your point of view, there might be one on the market this year -- Jones -- and because of his recent stinky play, he might be available at somewhat of a discount.

So sign him and move Pierre to left, where it will be immediately clear that he can't cut it. It's much easier to replace a left fielder.

Of course, the Dodgers could just bench Pierre right now, and that's where that argument fails.

63 If Kemp plays CF, and puts up corner outfielder numbers, it kind of offsets the other guy playing LF. Kind of.

Again, it's limiting the damage. We always seem to be doing that with this GM.

If signing Aaron Rowand happened in tandem with getting rid of Juan Pierre (somehow), I'd be all for it. If it doesn't, well, I'm agin' it!

55 I don't quite get that quote... Does he mean he will work as pitching coach?

60 Torre is saying that he prefers internal candidates for pitching coach (Honeycutt) because we have a lot of youth.

66 - ... and an internal candidate would be more familiar with them.