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2008 Season

Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)

1991-2007

Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended

2008 Payroll Worksheet

Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)

Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.

More contract details here.

Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000

Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000

Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000

Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000

Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000

Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725

Working total: *$113,268,725

*Rough salary estimate

The 2008 Dodgers

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Dear Prudence
2007-11-28 08:17
by Jon Weisman

More than one columnist has written recently that the Dodgers need to do something – even if that something is stupid – to show that they're serious about winning.

Yes, in multiple articles, columnists have actually cited bad deals as examples the Dodgers should follow. Better to move than stand still, they say – even if that movement is backwards.

Really.

I don't think there are too many people who want the Dodgers to stand pat. No matter your beliefs, no matter how much you love the Dodgers younger players, you're going to see places to improve an 82-win team.

But it seems to be a somewhat radical view in Mainstreamland to advocate only for positive change, rather than change for change's sake.

Most would love to see Johan Santana pitching for the Dodgers next year, for example. Maybe it will happen – after all, it's only November. But at some point, the price for Santana may well become too steep to be sensible, because if you're going to end up giving him the richest pitcher contract in history, you might want to have some talent (even better – low-cost talent) to support him, rather than leaving the cupboard bare for him. And certainly, you don't want to give up major talent for Santana only to lose him a year later to free agency. It's the Kobe conundrum, isn't it?

So, if it becomes senseless to trade for Santana at this point, does it make sense to substitute a shaky pitcher for him, just for the sake of doing so? That's how you get Brett Tomko, folks. Or even Esteban Loaiza. Or as a few sages would have said, even before last season, Jason Schmidt.

I'm concerned that Matt Kemp's low-walk totals could keep him from being a true superstar instead of a superior version of Juan Encarnacion. I don't think James Loney is going to homer at the rate he did last September, But I do know that whatever their limitations are, they can improve the Dodgers just by getting more at-bats next season. Just by playing the right guys, the team will be making positive changes.

The starting rotation is more complicated. Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Chad Billingsley are set, but as far as the final two spots in the rotation go, Jason Schmidt, Esteban Loaiza and James McDonald might be below-average in April, because of age (old or young) and/or health. It's dicey to go into the season with those five.

Me, I'd be willing to spend money to sign an extra starting pitcher as insurance – but only if he doesn't block McDonald or Clayton Kershaw long-term. I'm perfectly happy to overpay for someone if that pitcher isn't an albatross – someone you start out of obligation. You always have to be willing to let the right pitchers be in the rotation, regardless of their contracts.

If you're going to waste money, you have to be willing to waste it. You have to be willing to admit that what might have made sense at some point stops making sense at another point. (That's assuming it ever made sense at all.)

Barring that, I look at Lowe, Penny, Billingsley, Schmidt and Loaiza and see, really at worst, three sub-4.00 ERAs and two sub-5.00 ERAs. That's not a golden rotation, but as I wrote for SI.com earlier this year, that's not as bad as you might think – nobody gets five pitchers with above-average ERAs. And it keeps the door open for a talented minor leaguer to break through without any grief.

Adding another sub-5.00 ERA to the mix might not hurt the Dodgers if they use him correctly, but it isn't really going to help the team a whole lot. The Dodgers already have that kind of arm in their minor-league system.

Sometimes, not spending money is cheap. Other times, it's prudent. We can all disagree on where to make the distinction, but if you don't accept that there is a distinction, you're lost.

Update: Jerry Crasnick surveys the starting pitching market at ESPN.com.

* * *

Terry Tiffee. I don't have a joke here - I just like saying, Terry Tiffee.

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Comments (379)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2007-11-28 10:19:27
1.   Sagehen
So where would Kuroda fit in this? A blocker or a sub-4.00 pitcher? Or both?

Yes, I know it's just a rumor, but this is the nicest one I've heard yet.

2007-11-28 10:22:46
2.   regfairfield
I'd be shocked if Kuroda was anything more than a back of the rotation guy.
2007-11-28 10:26:52
3.   still bevens
Yeah Kuroda could very well pan out like Kei Igawa. However I think people were more apprehensive about Igawa since he was more of a finesse pitcher, but still that signing was kind of a disaster for the Yankees. I guess one benefit of Kuroda is there's no posting fee involved.
2007-11-28 10:30:47
4.   Hythloday
Prudence seems to dictate more Randy Wolf type deals then. With a host of arms in the minors (even given TINSTAAP) it would make sense to only sign one year deals even if they are over market value.

Santana, in my mind, is worth 2 current young starters plus a prospect. That is, that is what the Twins should demand. I'm not sure we should give that up. If they would take Ethier/Broxton/Kershaw or something like that I could deal with it. I'd be conflicted, but I could deal with it.

2007-11-28 10:31:03
5.   MC Safety
Anyone got any info on this Shackelford character Ned signed?
2007-11-28 10:34:06
6.   MC Safety
Is there any deception with Kuroda wind up wise? Igawa had no deception at all.
2007-11-28 10:41:15
7.   Gilberto Reyes
Do you really believe that Loaiza is at worst a sub 5.00 ERA? I was not impressed with him last year and would expect at least a 5.50 ERA out of him. And when you talk about starting a guy out of obligation, Juan Pierre is the biggest albatross of them all! Grady never benched him because of his consecutive game streak and his huge contract. You have to do what is best for the team! Pierre should be a bench player until his OBP improves. Or give him to the Giants since Coletti claims that is the team he had to outbid last year when he was a free agent. Sign Rowand or let Kemp play center to see if he can handle it.
2007-11-28 10:41:44
8.   blue22
If you dont like starting pitchers that wear #1 and emulate 1996 Pat Hentgen, your not a human being.

I didn't remember Pat Hentgen wearing #1, which would certainly explain your analogy.

I just think that's one of my favorite inexplicable traditions in baseball. For some reason, pitchers simply do not wear single digit uniform numbers - there isn't a rule that I know of or anything (like in football). It just simply isn't done. I can really only remember one or two instances in my lifetime.

2007-11-28 10:44:35
9.   MC Safety
5 Well, so far he throws left and definitely isnt a character guy. I realize this was a minor league deal, but it doesnt come close to "matching" up to last years "great guy" trifecta of Juan Pierre/Randy Wolf/Luis Gonzalez . I know bad joke, but I had too.
2007-11-28 10:46:29
10.   dkminnick
4 - I would favor an actual Randy Wolf deal. He's gonna come cheap. I am at a loss to understand why the Dodgers seem to have no interest in him at all.

Old friend Eric Gagne would also seem an attractive buy low deal.

You can't have too many pitchers.

2007-11-28 10:47:36
11.   regfairfield
7 What in Loaiza's history would suggest that? The man has been a solid pitcher for the last several years.
2007-11-28 10:49:03
12.   regfairfield
10 I wouldn't assume that. Wolf is by far the best lefty on the market assuming Pettitte stays with his Yankees or nothing stance. He'll get at least what he got last year.
2007-11-28 10:54:40
13.   MC Safety
8 I know Pat Hentgen did'nt wear #1. I was thinking along similar lines as you, just being silly and going against the grain. I just thought "Hey, I'm #1, I really liked Pat Hentgen growing up, and Jon is asking us for postitions, starting pitcher+Pat Hentgen=no brainer!". No evil ulterior motives, just sillyness.
2007-11-28 10:57:31
14.   Gilberto Reyes
11 - Loaiza is not a power pitcher and has become a nibbler in my opinion. If the umpire does not give him the calls, he starts walking people and his ERA skyrockets. He has been solid in the past, but I fear his productive years are behind him. I would like to see one of the young arms given a chance by June over Loaiza if he cannot return to his solid form.
2007-11-28 10:58:07
15.   wronghanded
6 He does pause when he steps back during his wind-up in a Saito-esque kind of way.

I justed watched some video on Kuroda and was pretty impressed with his stuff. The one thing that scares me from what I saw (and granted its a small sample size) is his command or apparent lack there of. In the 2 videos I watched, he didn't walk anybody but several hitters worked the count pretty well against him and he served up some pitches that certified big leaguers would probably hammer. You can't get away with belt high fastballs down the pipe in the bigs, even if you're throwing in the low to mid 90's. That being said, he certainly looked a lot better than Tomko, Hendrickson and other yahoos that we used in the back of our rotation last year. Is 4/45 million worth it? I don't know, he looks like an good #4 or 5 starter to me.

2007-11-28 10:58:43
16.   Jon Weisman
7 - I deliberately did not bring up Pierre in this post because we've talked about him too recently, and there's nothing new to be said.

But I don't think Loaiza's 2007 should be used to determine how he will do in 2008.

2007-11-28 11:01:32
17.   Jon Weisman
14 - "I would like to see one of the young arms given a chance by June over Loaiza if he cannot return to his solid form."

No one's disagreeing with that.

2007-11-28 11:01:56
18.   JoeyP
11--

First reason is his age. He's going to be 36 years old for the 2008 season.

The second reason, is he really hasnt been "solid" the last several years. He was bad in 2007, bad in 2006, good in 2005 (but played most of his games in Washington), bad in 2004, and good in 2003.

He's on the downside, he gives up lots of homers, he doesnt strike people out--he's thoroughly mediocre at this stage of his career. Plus, he makes 7 mils bucks a year, and has the PVL that takes away a spot from a high upside youngster.

I rate Loaiza/Pierre/Nomar in the same boat. All costly mediocre vets that prevent youngsters from having a clear chance to play. Their mere presence on the team is a hinderance to the Dodgers success.

I look at Lowe, Penny, Billingsley, Schmidt and Loaiza and see, really at worst, three sub-4.00 ERAs

Thats exceedingly optimistic IMO. I think Penny/Billingsley are good bets for under 4.00 ERAs. But Schmidt, Lowe, Loaiza have a very mediocre, costly, veteran stench to them. I'll be shocked if the Dodgers get 4 good years out of Lowe. I think he falls off this year, at least with an ERA over 4.00.

2007-11-28 11:02:05
19.   Brian Y
If you want to watch Kuroda pitch here ya go.

http://tinyurl.com/25ohh4

2007-11-28 11:02:17
20.   KG16
5 - is there something wrong with me when I read the words "Shackelford character" and my first thought is, "Shackelford, Rusty Shackelford"?

I think I might be leaning towards a two year deal (with a possible option for a third) for Carlos Silva to round out the rotation.

2007-11-28 11:03:31
21.   Lexinthedena
Loaiza is crafty, and won't be aweful....but he won't be very good either....Shmidt is the real catch for me because there is just no way to predict anything.....makes it very hard to build around...
2007-11-28 11:06:41
22.   Gilberto Reyes
16 - I hope you are right about Loaiza. As a Dodger fan, I am obviously pulling for him. I agreee that his 2007 numbers are too small of a sample size to evaluate. But after suffering through Tomko, Kuo, and Hendrickson in 2007, it is easy to put Loaiza in that category. I hope he comes to camp in shape and poised to have a solid year.
2007-11-28 11:08:12
23.   regfairfield
21 And I'm definately not saying he will be. My reaction at the time of the signing was "probably won't be a complete disaster" and I don't see any reason why I would think differentely.

Loaiza is nothing more than depth at this point. McDonald is probably better right now, but he has options, so he doesn't get to be the first choice. Without Loaiza, we have to turn to Stulton if McDonald gets hurt, or we start burning option years on Kershaw, which can become a serious problem if he ever gets hurt.

2007-11-28 11:08:40
24.   Lexinthedena
19- Thanks for that...

i hate to say it, but his stuff reminds me a lot of Tomko....not to say he is that bad, but stuff-wise very similar....

2007-11-28 11:09:22
25.   underdog
I agree with everything Jon wrote above, but rather than just post "ditto!" I'd add (for probably the 23rd time), that I'd still like to see the Dodgers make an attempt to re-sign Randy Wolf, if he's cheap enough. When healthy he's very solid - and that "when healthy" is definitely a major caveat, given his recent history, but he's worth a flyer.

Bring him back, or Kuroda, and the rotation has plenty of depth, with no one blocking The Minotaur and McDonald in the future. If Schmidt comes back solidly, all the better. Loiaza will be a cranky if useful 6th starter, imho. That all comes fairly cheap, and you didn't have to give up top young players to get a guy you can try to sign after the season.

2007-11-28 11:10:48
26.   kinbote
Knowing what we know about Colletti's tendencies, it seems fairly certain he will add an established starter to the mix. Based on that premise, I would rather have the relative unknown of Kuroda over the other names out there. If we can't get him, I'd look into a low-risk high-reward type like Colon or even Prior (via trade). If someone offers Wolf two years, we're out of the running.

Carlos Silva or Kyle Lohse for 5 years gives me the chills.

2007-11-28 11:14:05
27.   JoeyP
23--The downside to "depth" is it always gives the team an excuse to play an older crappier player in place of a more deserving younger one.

Hendrickson/Tomko were "depth" last year. They should have never started a game.
Without both of them, maybe Billingsley actually gets to start for a full season.

With Loaiza making 7mils, I'd rather turn to Stults as "depth" if it comes to that, and spend the 7mils on a better player.

2007-11-28 11:20:13
28.   Bleed Dodger Blue
26 Silva or Lohse would be a nightmare. If we nab either, I'll be screaming bloody murder.

Colon wouldn't bother me, as he's obviously had the good stuff before, yet he might be a guy willing to pitch in the bullpen if he falters early.

I, personally, would be OK with going to war with Penny, Lowe, Billz, Schmidt and Loaiza. We still have Hendrickson (or do we? I can't keep track) for a "holy crap please why God why" emergency start. And we have McDonald a phone call away.

But if we go with a stopgap for a year, I'd go after guys like Colon, Matt Clement, Jason Jennings, etc. ... guys that have been productive in the past but hampered by injury. We don't need 40 starts from these guys, so why not take a stab in the dark at a guy that potentially give us a sub-4 average?

As for Kuroda, I'd say look elsewhere. He has alright tools, but outside of Saito and our "contender" status, there's no reason why he should choose Blue over the Mariners.

2007-11-28 11:21:36
29.   regfairfield
27 Which is true, my comments to depend on the fact that Loaiza will be abandonded if it becomes necassary, but given that we have Schmidt, Kuo and Loaiza as the 4-5-6 right now, we need as many bodies as possible or we'll end up like last year where we ran out of usable pitchers on the 40 man.
2007-11-28 11:23:25
30.   LogikReader
I don't think we have to worry about a Santana trade. The Yankees will take care of that for us.
2007-11-28 11:24:16
31.   MC Safety
There is a real strong possibility imo, that Schmidt and Loaiza are not going to be good. That said they have a chance to be ok, but is anyone really debating the fact that they really almost have no chance of being good? There is not much upside at this point with Loaiza and Schmidt. Saying our rotation has question marks is an understatement to me.
2007-11-28 11:24:44
32.   underdog
28 - If I had to guess, I'd say the odds of where Kuroda lands are as follows:
1. Seattle. (Kenji at catcher is the biggest reason; plus it's a Pacific Rim city)
2. Dodgers. (Saito, contender, and don't forget LA's a Pacific Rim city, too, with a large Japanese and Asian population as well as having a history with Asian players)
3. Everyone else.

I like Mark Prior's talent but with his history we might as well invite Darren Dreifort to spring training, too.

2007-11-28 11:25:47
33.   therickdaddy
Re: Tiffee - I can't say Boof Bonser without smiling.
2007-11-28 11:27:52
34.   rockmrete
JoeyP is right,

We have depth, spend the money on someone (AJ) that can put you over the top. Or don't spend, save the resources for next year.

2007-11-28 11:30:24
35.   Lexinthedena
34- Ron Flippo
2007-11-28 11:30:38
36.   regfairfield
34 Loaiza is better than Stulton. We can clearly afford him, so why not use him? We're not going to just release seven million dollars.
2007-11-28 11:34:42
37.   Jon Weisman
18 - Based on what you wrote, I dispute your use of the word "exceedingly." You agreed with all but one.
2007-11-28 11:38:31
38.   Lexinthedena
36- Is he?....Houlton has not been given a chance as a starter, and probobly never will as a Dodger, but I think he could be better than Loaiza...or Lohse for that matter...
2007-11-28 11:40:15
39.   KG16
So, if USC moves to the Rose Bowl, will they let the Bruins and Trojans wear home uniforms for the games like they did in the old days?

Also, from Plaschke's relatively decent column today, can the Coliseum be torn down? Isn't it a historic landmark? I was under the impression you couldn't tear those down...

2007-11-28 11:41:40
40.   Sushirabbit
... The clouds will be a daisy chain ...

For some reason that song always makes me think of Bill Watterson (I have no idea why). I really miss his stuff.

2007-11-28 11:45:30
41.   silverwidow
Torre knows first hand how bad Loaiza can get. Which likely means he's on a short leash.
2007-11-28 11:47:03
42.   Xeifrank
Guo needs to be mentioned in the mix of 4-5-6th starter. Sure he has his injury problems like Schmidt does, and Bob has cursed him from ever pitching another effective game for the Dodgers again, but his projected K/9, K/BB, K-BB/IP rates are as good as any on the team. Of course you have to be healthy first.
vr, Xei
2007-11-28 11:53:32
43.   Bob Timmermann
39
So, if USC moves to the Rose Bowl, will they let the Bruins and Trojans wear home uniforms for the games like they did in the old days?

No. USC is the home team in odd-numbered years and UCLA is the home team in even-numbered years. So it is and so it shall be.

Also, from Plaschke's relatively decent column today, can the Coliseum be torn down? Isn't it a historic landmark? I was under the impression you couldn't tear those down...

You can tear down historic landmarks if you really want to. There's just a lot more paperwork involved.

2007-11-28 11:55:53
44.   Jon Weisman
43 - Just consider the paperwork involved in tearing down Plaschke.
2007-11-28 12:01:33
45.   Lexinthedena
44- It would save a lot of paper in the end.
2007-11-28 12:12:26
46.   wave of mutilation
I think signing Kuroda would be a wise investment. Kuroda wouldn't be as big of a risk a Schmidt or Loazia in my opinion. We'd probably get more out of Kuroda then those two combined next season.

Another thing that intrigues me about Kuroda is his relationship with Saito. I think one of the main reasons Saito is so successful in America is his preparation and his work ethic. I know nothing about Kuroda but I'd be willing to guess that they are similar in their ways also Saito would help him make the cultural transition a little easier I think.

2007-11-28 12:15:21
47.   Howard Fox
I'm sure USC will do fine in negotiating with the Coliseum Commission. And if they need some advice, they can always consult the NFL.
2007-11-28 12:15:34
48.   wave of mutilation
Delmon Young is about to become a twin. Wow! I didn't think that rumor had any legs.
2007-11-28 12:17:54
49.   Howard Fox
As far as prudence goes...

I'd stick with what we have, let the youngsters in our organization have their chances and suffer with their growing pains, especially given our history of signing lame pitchers in the free agent market.

You hope Lowe, Penny and Billingsley are steady, you hope the position players continue to develop, and you hope the young pitchers adapt in a reasonable amount of time.

2007-11-28 12:21:10
50.   underdog
48 Wow. Yeah, according to the Minneapolis paper, they'd send Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Juan Rincon to the (formerly Devil) Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie. "I can't remember any kind of young player blockbuster like this in recent memory," wrote the MLBTraderumors blogger.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2007-11-28 12:22:28
51.   blue22
48 - I don't know how much difference there is between Bartlett and Harris, so it looks like it's basically Young for Garza. I thought Young would be worth more than just Garza.

Now the Twins need to trade Santana to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera (and others). Apparently the Yanks want Rowand if they trade Melky.

2007-11-28 12:22:29
52.   Bob Timmermann
50
Those are too many names to be expressed as a rebus.
2007-11-28 12:23:18
53.   regfairfield
48 Reputable source for this?
2007-11-28 12:25:07
54.   blue22
53 - As reliable as it gets - a newspaper blog.

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=276

2007-11-28 12:25:37
55.   underdog
53 http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=276

Bartlett's a really good young player, too. I dunno, I'd call that trade a wash, given how much it improves the Rays pitching staff. Maybe Young moved a trash can and they soured on him there.

2007-11-28 12:25:43
56.   regfairfield
51 Bartlett is better than Harris because Bartlett isn't horrifically bad at defense.
2007-11-28 12:26:32
57.   underdog
Couldn't the Dodgers have offered the Twins Delwyn Young for Garza? Maybe they would've been confused and taken it.
2007-11-28 12:28:50
58.   regfairfield
55 I think him not showing any real improvement in the last two years took some shine off of him. Off hand I'd say this is a pretty even trade.
2007-11-28 12:29:08
59.   regfairfield
57 Worked for Dan Evans.
2007-11-28 12:30:07
60.   Lexinthedena
Now If the Dodgers would just sign Jones, add a 4th starter like Kuroda or Silva, and call it an offseason....
2007-11-28 12:30:45
61.   blue22
56 - But Harris looks like he can hit, though I'm not sure if 2007 was a fluke.

55 - Bartlett is 28, and can't really hit.

2007-11-28 12:31:03
62.   trainwreck
Well I expect Loaiza to be terrible and we are going to have to replace him, but I thought that when we first acquired him.

I agree that he is just depth in my mind, in case someone gets injured. I would not count on him.

2007-11-28 12:33:57
63.   blue22
62 - And you have to think his presence spells the end for Hendrickson. Loaiza looks like the guy that's going to bounce back and forth between the pen and rotation this year.
2007-11-28 12:34:30
64.   JoeyP
I'm really surprised the D-Rays would basically give up on the #1 overall draft pick so soon.

Matt Garza is a decent pitcher, but they must just not see all the projections for stardom that Delmon Young had.

2007-11-28 12:36:36
65.   trainwreck
The Ray outfield would be Crawford-Baldelli-Guzman?

I assume they aren't going to use Dukes.

2007-11-28 12:37:51
66.   regfairfield
65 Crawford/Upton/Gomes probably. Maybe Ruggiano gets a shot.
2007-11-28 12:38:29
67.   underdog
Garza's better than "decent" imho, but yes, it is a surprise the Rays gave up on Young so soon. They have a lot of other talented position players and desperately needed pitching so, thus, the deal...
2007-11-28 12:39:37
68.   blue22
65 - I would think it'll be Crawford/Baldelli/Dukes with Gomes hanging around too. Guzman has a lot to prove to get a big league job.
2007-11-28 12:40:20
69.   blue22
66 - Oh yeah, Upton. Knew there was someone I was forgetting.
2007-11-28 12:40:40
70.   Lexinthedena
I really hate the "Rays" new uni's....one of the cool things about them was the fact that they wore green...
2007-11-28 12:41:19
71.   trainwreck
Oh yeah, forgot Upton was moved to center.
2007-11-28 12:41:29
72.   regfairfield
I think Delmon only walking 63 times unintentionally since 2005 has a lot to do with them souring on him a bit.
2007-11-28 12:41:45
73.   mankatododger
Local sports radio is already split on this deal for the Twins. The early opinion is that this is not a deal Terry Ryan would have made. Also that is just the beginning of something better.
2007-11-28 12:47:06
74.   trainwreck
Yeah, it seems like they are expecting to deal Santana and getting a pitcher or two.
2007-11-28 12:48:30
75.   JoeyP
I guess I'd have been upset if the Dodgers traded Kemp for Garza.

Would people here rather have Matt Kemp or Delmon Young?

2007-11-28 12:49:22
76.   ToyCannon
Our Dan Evans is now an agent? I like these guys who miss on becoming GM's and becoming agents.

62
Your expectations for Loaiza are colored by his time with the A's. The same reason Billy gave him that deal in the 1st place is still true.

61
The Rays need a defensive SS not an offensive whiz. Bartlett will fit in perfectly and the current rotation of Kazmir/Garza/Shields/Howell/Neiman/E Jackson/Sonnanstine and a bullpen that now includes Wheeler, Reyes and Rincon. With Price, McGee, and W Davis 3 of the top ten pitching prospects in baseball they will have plenty to choose from as they decide who to keep and who to deal.

Kazmir would fetch a ton this winter.

The outfield right now will be Crawford/Upton/Baldelli with Gomes manning DH. Old friends Guzman and Ruggiano will back them up. And cellmate Mr. Dukes is still hanging around. With Pena/Iwamura/Barlett/Longoria they are also set in the infield.

D Young has has the same plate discipline issues that Mr. Kemp needs to overcome and his power just hasn't been very impressive. Even with D Young being a number one pick, I'd expect Matt Kemp is looked on more favorably in the baseball world. Plus he doesn't have the stigma of having thrown a bat at an umpire, only moving a trashcan.

Oh, they also get the number one pick this year, so Mr. Alveraz your future is waiting for you in Tampa.

2007-11-28 12:49:48
77.   CajunDodger
18
I am getting into this a bit late, but why should we care how much Loaiza costs? Colletti got him as a rental that we didn't have to give up anything but money for, so if he works out great, if not, Torre will not hesitate to use whatever resources are at his disposal.

Two more thoughts:

1) Given the arm problems many young starters have had with the jump from the minors to the majors (Liriano, young Weaver, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez), I think that it is a blessing in disguise that Bills has so little mileage on his arm. He has now had two years to ramp up his innings to the 200+ level instead of making the jump in a single season. It sucked watching Tomdrickson, but it helped us in the long run.

2) With regards to what Jon said about a veteran pitcher signing blocking a youngster, I don't think that will be an issue unless two FA pitchers are signed long term. Lowe and Loaiza are gone after this year, with Penny and Schmidt after 2009. Any signing we make this year for a Kuroda or someone like Silva would not block any of our youth in the long term. Kershaw still has not sniffed Vegas, Elbert needs another year to ensure that his arm is OK, and McDonald has a spot open if anything at all goes wrong this season.

2007-11-28 12:50:21
78.   Eric Stephen
On balance, I like this deal for the Twins. But, I think they have a very real chance at winning their division in 2008, IF they keep Johan.

If they trade Garza AND Johan, their rotation would look like:

Liriano (age 24 in 2008)
Bonser (26)
Baker (26)
Slowey (24)
Pitcher received for Johan

That's still a good rotation, but add in Johan and Garza and it's at or near the top of the league.

On the other hand, their offense improves with Young and I'm assuming they would receive a 2B/3B and/or OF in the Johan deal.

I don't remember a trade with two really good young players (both Young & Garza are 22) for some time, maybe since the Dodgers traded a 21-year old pitcher with a 148 ERA+ over 115 IP for a 24-year old 2B with a .277/.367/.373, 106 OPS+.

2007-11-28 12:50:55
79.   Lexinthedena
75- Kemp without a doubt.....but Young is going to help the Twins so much...This deal helps both teams a lot IMO...
2007-11-28 12:51:44
80.   JoeyP
72--True.
Only 27 walks in 771 major league at bats.

That was in his age 20/age21 years, but plate discipline just might be a thing that cant be learned at the big league level. That is, if a player didnt walk in the minors, he wont in the majors.

2007-11-28 12:52:28
81.   regfairfield
76 How cute, you think Baldelli is actually going to play this year :).
2007-11-28 12:52:32
82.   Jon Weisman
72 - Is that more walks than Kemp?
2007-11-28 12:53:00
83.   CajunDodger
76
If you live in the Pasadena area, his new office digs are next door to my family's favorite Thai place: Saladang Song on Fair Oaks. The office is kind of a little hole in the wall with lots of nice cars outside.
2007-11-28 12:53:48
84.   LogikReader
semi-relate note:

I like to think the "on the farm" updates at Dodger Stadium started indirectly because of Dodger Thoughts.

carry on!

2007-11-28 12:55:37
85.   Jon Weisman
From Gurnick:

"Catcher Chad Moeller, impressive in a September callup but taken off the Major League roster, signed with Washington."

Moeller had a single and HBP in nine plate appearances over s