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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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More than one columnist has written recently that the Dodgers need to do something even if that something is stupid to show that they're serious about winning.
Yes, in multiple articles, columnists have actually cited bad deals as examples the Dodgers should follow. Better to move than stand still, they say even if that movement is backwards.
Really.
I don't think there are too many people who want the Dodgers to stand pat. No matter your beliefs, no matter how much you love the Dodgers younger players, you're going to see places to improve an 82-win team.
But it seems to be a somewhat radical view in Mainstreamland to advocate only for positive change, rather than change for change's sake.
Most would love to see Johan Santana pitching for the Dodgers next year, for example. Maybe it will happen after all, it's only November. But at some point, the price for Santana may well become too steep to be sensible, because if you're going to end up giving him the richest pitcher contract in history, you might want to have some talent (even better low-cost talent) to support him, rather than leaving the cupboard bare for him. And certainly, you don't want to give up major talent for Santana only to lose him a year later to free agency. It's the Kobe conundrum, isn't it?
So, if it becomes senseless to trade for Santana at this point, does it make sense to substitute a shaky pitcher for him, just for the sake of doing so? That's how you get Brett Tomko, folks. Or even Esteban Loaiza. Or as a few sages would have said, even before last season, Jason Schmidt.
I'm concerned that Matt Kemp's low-walk totals could keep him from being a true superstar instead of a superior version of Juan Encarnacion. I don't think James Loney is going to homer at the rate he did last September, But I do know that whatever their limitations are, they can improve the Dodgers just by getting more at-bats next season. Just by playing the right guys, the team will be making positive changes.
The starting rotation is more complicated. Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Chad Billingsley are set, but as far as the final two spots in the rotation go, Jason Schmidt, Esteban Loaiza and James McDonald might be below-average in April, because of age (old or young) and/or health. It's dicey to go into the season with those five.
Me, I'd be willing to spend money to sign an extra starting pitcher as insurance but only if he doesn't block McDonald or Clayton Kershaw long-term. I'm perfectly happy to overpay for someone if that pitcher isn't an albatross someone you start out of obligation. You always have to be willing to let the right pitchers be in the rotation, regardless of their contracts.
If you're going to waste money, you have to be willing to waste it. You have to be willing to admit that what might have made sense at some point stops making sense at another point. (That's assuming it ever made sense at all.)
Barring that, I look at Lowe, Penny, Billingsley, Schmidt and Loaiza and see, really at worst, three sub-4.00 ERAs and two sub-5.00 ERAs. That's not a golden rotation, but as I wrote for SI.com earlier this year, that's not as bad as you might think nobody gets five pitchers with above-average ERAs. And it keeps the door open for a talented minor leaguer to break through without any grief.
Adding another sub-5.00 ERA to the mix might not hurt the Dodgers if they use him correctly, but it isn't really going to help the team a whole lot. The Dodgers already have that kind of arm in their minor-league system.
Sometimes, not spending money is cheap. Other times, it's prudent. We can all disagree on where to make the distinction, but if you don't accept that there is a distinction, you're lost.
Update: Jerry Crasnick surveys the starting pitching market at ESPN.com.
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Terry Tiffee. I don't have a joke here - I just like saying, Terry Tiffee.
Yes, I know it's just a rumor, but this is the nicest one I've heard yet.
Santana, in my mind, is worth 2 current young starters plus a prospect. That is, that is what the Twins should demand. I'm not sure we should give that up. If they would take Ethier/Broxton/Kershaw or something like that I could deal with it. I'd be conflicted, but I could deal with it.
I didn't remember Pat Hentgen wearing #1, which would certainly explain your analogy.
I just think that's one of my favorite inexplicable traditions in baseball. For some reason, pitchers simply do not wear single digit uniform numbers - there isn't a rule that I know of or anything (like in football). It just simply isn't done. I can really only remember one or two instances in my lifetime.
Old friend Eric Gagne would also seem an attractive buy low deal.
You can't have too many pitchers.
I justed watched some video on Kuroda and was pretty impressed with his stuff. The one thing that scares me from what I saw (and granted its a small sample size) is his command or apparent lack there of. In the 2 videos I watched, he didn't walk anybody but several hitters worked the count pretty well against him and he served up some pitches that certified big leaguers would probably hammer. You can't get away with belt high fastballs down the pipe in the bigs, even if you're throwing in the low to mid 90's. That being said, he certainly looked a lot better than Tomko, Hendrickson and other yahoos that we used in the back of our rotation last year. Is 4/45 million worth it? I don't know, he looks like an good #4 or 5 starter to me.
But I don't think Loaiza's 2007 should be used to determine how he will do in 2008.
No one's disagreeing with that.
First reason is his age. He's going to be 36 years old for the 2008 season.
The second reason, is he really hasnt been "solid" the last several years. He was bad in 2007, bad in 2006, good in 2005 (but played most of his games in Washington), bad in 2004, and good in 2003.
He's on the downside, he gives up lots of homers, he doesnt strike people out--he's thoroughly mediocre at this stage of his career. Plus, he makes 7 mils bucks a year, and has the PVL that takes away a spot from a high upside youngster.
I rate Loaiza/Pierre/Nomar in the same boat. All costly mediocre vets that prevent youngsters from having a clear chance to play. Their mere presence on the team is a hinderance to the Dodgers success.
I look at Lowe, Penny, Billingsley, Schmidt and Loaiza and see, really at worst, three sub-4.00 ERAs
Thats exceedingly optimistic IMO. I think Penny/Billingsley are good bets for under 4.00 ERAs. But Schmidt, Lowe, Loaiza have a very mediocre, costly, veteran stench to them. I'll be shocked if the Dodgers get 4 good years out of Lowe. I think he falls off this year, at least with an ERA over 4.00.
http://tinyurl.com/25ohh4
I think I might be leaning towards a two year deal (with a possible option for a third) for Carlos Silva to round out the rotation.
Loaiza is nothing more than depth at this point. McDonald is probably better right now, but he has options, so he doesn't get to be the first choice. Without Loaiza, we have to turn to Stulton if McDonald gets hurt, or we start burning option years on Kershaw, which can become a serious problem if he ever gets hurt.
i hate to say it, but his stuff reminds me a lot of Tomko....not to say he is that bad, but stuff-wise very similar....
Bring him back, or Kuroda, and the rotation has plenty of depth, with no one blocking The Minotaur and McDonald in the future. If Schmidt comes back solidly, all the better. Loiaza will be a cranky if useful 6th starter, imho. That all comes fairly cheap, and you didn't have to give up top young players to get a guy you can try to sign after the season.
Carlos Silva or Kyle Lohse for 5 years gives me the chills.
Hendrickson/Tomko were "depth" last year. They should have never started a game.
Without both of them, maybe Billingsley actually gets to start for a full season.
With Loaiza making 7mils, I'd rather turn to Stults as "depth" if it comes to that, and spend the 7mils on a better player.
Colon wouldn't bother me, as he's obviously had the good stuff before, yet he might be a guy willing to pitch in the bullpen if he falters early.
I, personally, would be OK with going to war with Penny, Lowe, Billz, Schmidt and Loaiza. We still have Hendrickson (or do we? I can't keep track) for a "holy crap please why God why" emergency start. And we have McDonald a phone call away.
But if we go with a stopgap for a year, I'd go after guys like Colon, Matt Clement, Jason Jennings, etc. ... guys that have been productive in the past but hampered by injury. We don't need 40 starts from these guys, so why not take a stab in the dark at a guy that potentially give us a sub-4 average?
As for Kuroda, I'd say look elsewhere. He has alright tools, but outside of Saito and our "contender" status, there's no reason why he should choose Blue over the Mariners.
1. Seattle. (Kenji at catcher is the biggest reason; plus it's a Pacific Rim city)
2. Dodgers. (Saito, contender, and don't forget LA's a Pacific Rim city, too, with a large Japanese and Asian population as well as having a history with Asian players)
3. Everyone else.
I like Mark Prior's talent but with his history we might as well invite Darren Dreifort to spring training, too.
We have depth, spend the money on someone (AJ) that can put you over the top. Or don't spend, save the resources for next year.
Also, from Plaschke's relatively decent column today, can the Coliseum be torn down? Isn't it a historic landmark? I was under the impression you couldn't tear those down...
For some reason that song always makes me think of Bill Watterson (I have no idea why). I really miss his stuff.
vr, Xei
So, if USC moves to the Rose Bowl, will they let the Bruins and Trojans wear home uniforms for the games like they did in the old days?
No. USC is the home team in odd-numbered years and UCLA is the home team in even-numbered years. So it is and so it shall be.
Also, from Plaschke's relatively decent column today, can the Coliseum be torn down? Isn't it a historic landmark? I was under the impression you couldn't tear those down...
You can tear down historic landmarks if you really want to. There's just a lot more paperwork involved.
Another thing that intrigues me about Kuroda is his relationship with Saito. I think one of the main reasons Saito is so successful in America is his preparation and his work ethic. I know nothing about Kuroda but I'd be willing to guess that they are similar in their ways also Saito would help him make the cultural transition a little easier I think.
I'd stick with what we have, let the youngsters in our organization have their chances and suffer with their growing pains, especially given our history of signing lame pitchers in the free agent market.
You hope Lowe, Penny and Billingsley are steady, you hope the position players continue to develop, and you hope the young pitchers adapt in a reasonable amount of time.
Now the Twins need to trade Santana to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera (and others). Apparently the Yanks want Rowand if they trade Melky.
Those are too many names to be expressed as a rebus.
http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=276
Bartlett's a really good young player, too. I dunno, I'd call that trade a wash, given how much it improves the Rays pitching staff. Maybe Young moved a trash can and they soured on him there.
55 - Bartlett is 28, and can't really hit.
I agree that he is just depth in my mind, in case someone gets injured. I would not count on him.
Matt Garza is a decent pitcher, but they must just not see all the projections for stardom that Delmon Young had.
I assume they aren't going to use Dukes.
Would people here rather have Matt Kemp or Delmon Young?
62
Your expectations for Loaiza are colored by his time with the A's. The same reason Billy gave him that deal in the 1st place is still true.
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The Rays need a defensive SS not an offensive whiz. Bartlett will fit in perfectly and the current rotation of Kazmir/Garza/Shields/Howell/Neiman/E Jackson/Sonnanstine and a bullpen that now includes Wheeler, Reyes and Rincon. With Price, McGee, and W Davis 3 of the top ten pitching prospects in baseball they will have plenty to choose from as they decide who to keep and who to deal.
Kazmir would fetch a ton this winter.
The outfield right now will be Crawford/Upton/Baldelli with Gomes manning DH. Old friends Guzman and Ruggiano will back them up. And cellmate Mr. Dukes is still hanging around. With Pena/Iwamura/Barlett/Longoria they are also set in the infield.
D Young has has the same plate discipline issues that Mr. Kemp needs to overcome and his power just hasn't been very impressive. Even with D Young being a number one pick, I'd expect Matt Kemp is looked on more favorably in the baseball world. Plus he doesn't have the stigma of having thrown a bat at an umpire, only moving a trashcan.
Oh, they also get the number one pick this year, so Mr. Alveraz your future is waiting for you in Tampa.
I am getting into this a bit late, but why should we care how much Loaiza costs? Colletti got him as a rental that we didn't have to give up anything but money for, so if he works out great, if not, Torre will not hesitate to use whatever resources are at his disposal.
Two more thoughts:
1) Given the arm problems many young starters have had with the jump from the minors to the majors (Liriano, young Weaver, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez), I think that it is a blessing in disguise that Bills has so little mileage on his arm. He has now had two years to ramp up his innings to the 200+ level instead of making the jump in a single season. It sucked watching Tomdrickson, but it helped us in the long run.
2) With regards to what Jon said about a veteran pitcher signing blocking a youngster, I don't think that will be an issue unless two FA pitchers are signed long term. Lowe and Loaiza are gone after this year, with Penny and Schmidt after 2009. Any signing we make this year for a Kuroda or someone like Silva would not block any of our youth in the long term. Kershaw still has not sniffed Vegas, Elbert needs another year to ensure that his arm is OK, and McDonald has a spot open if anything at all goes wrong this season.
If they trade Garza AND Johan, their rotation would look like:
Liriano (age 24 in 2008)
Bonser (26)
Baker (26)
Slowey (24)
Pitcher received for Johan
That's still a good rotation, but add in Johan and Garza and it's at or near the top of the league.
On the other hand, their offense improves with Young and I'm assuming they would receive a 2B/3B and/or OF in the Johan deal.
I don't remember a trade with two really good young players (both Young & Garza are 22) for some time, maybe since the Dodgers traded a 21-year old pitcher with a 148 ERA+ over 115 IP for a 24-year old 2B with a .277/.367/.373, 106 OPS+.
Only 27 walks in 771 major league at bats.
That was in his age 20/age21 years, but plate discipline just might be a thing that cant be learned at the big league level. That is, if a player didnt walk in the minors, he wont in the majors.
If you live in the Pasadena area, his new office digs are next door to my family's favorite Thai place: Saladang Song on Fair Oaks. The office is kind of a little hole in the wall with lots of nice cars outside.
I like to think the "on the farm" updates at Dodger Stadium started indirectly because of Dodger Thoughts.
carry on!
"Catcher Chad Moeller, impressive in a September callup but taken off the Major League roster, signed with Washington."
Moeller had a single and HBP in nine plate appearances over s