A feature on Sarah Gilfillan:

http://www.dailybruin.ucla.edu/news/2007/nov/21/gilfillan-was-devoted-work/

Nice write-up, Canuck. Very useful, as always. I agree, as I'm sure we all do, that Alvarez was a surprise - a real head-scratcher. I disagree about May, though, I thought it was a no-brainer they protect him. He may be a work in progress, but still has a world of potential and, if his defense never comes around (which as a catcher it still...may) he can always be traded to an AL team as a DH. ;-) I'm curious who you would've protected instead of those two? I'm not sure who some of the other eligible players were right off-hand.

Also, isn't there still a possibility Alvarez could be cut if they needed to make room for more than two new players over the coming months?

Still, that one came out of nowhere...

LAT'ed in the last post, not worth reposting, other to say that I'm reaching "cautiously optimistic" territory this off season.

In re 207 and the comparisons of Caberra to Mitchel, I think it has to do with the incredibly weight gain and questions of conditioning. Past performance matters less when a player shows poor conditioning/training habits, in predicting future performance.

Ah, Wesley Wright - yes, I agree, he should've been given the spot over Alvarez for sure. I bet they lose him (though it's hard to picture him on an ML roster for a year.)

For D4P I submit this to you: You... are... correct. Why is Brady having such an extraordinary season? It's Randy Moss! Why did the 49ers go from darn good to really great? Jerry Rice! What kept the Cowboys from defeat this week? Terrell Owens.

I give thanks for your shout-out, but I'm not allowed to talk about those guys anymore.

Related:
http://bronxbanter.baseballtoaster.com/archives/870958.html

3 Seeing as Miguel Cabrera is quite obviously far more talented than Kevin Mitchell, I think it does matter.

Every time someone brings up these fat guys in regards to Cabrera, the bring up someone who peaked around age 32, that's eight years for Miguel.

5

I appreciate that, D4P. I'll remember to not start another "worst thread ever." =)

7 - I'm not saying that it's a perfect comparison. But talent evaluators are using experience to judge players. Is it fair to judge a player based on what someone he's probably never met did when the new player was 10 make a lot of sense? No, probably not. But that doesn't mean that there aren't warning signs. Plus, Cabrera has put on a lot of weight before other comparable players have. That, for me, would be a major concern.

Since Andrew Shimmin's comment was LAT'd, I will reproduce it here:

Personally, Cabrera reminds me a lot of Andrew Bogut.

9 These aren't talent evaluators, this is Buster Olney. If you can find me an example of a guy who ate his way out of the bigs at age 25 or 26, I'd be happy to concede the point, but this seems to be more of a case of players with old players skills fading when players with old players skills usually do.

FWIW, in the same piece quoted in the last thread, Buster Olney reported that LA's offer to Lowell was 3 years.

10- As long as he doesn't remind you of Jon Koncak.

The only recent player I can think of who ate himself out of being an All-Star was Carlos Baerga:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/baergca01.shtml

I noticed that Cabrera's run totals were down a little bit from this last season, could the arepa weight have something to do with it?.....I'm sure it's been talked about, but I love the hot stove.....

Baerga. And people thought Cey looked odd when he ran.

11 - if a guy like Kevin Mitchell took better care of himself at age 24-26, would he have been a better player? If he didn't report to camp 30 pounds overweight one year, would he have been a better player?

Talent is like air, the higher you go, the thinner it gets. The fact of the matter is, there are not a lot of guys who can perform at the major league level, so teams will always take a chance on guys who have performed in the past. As someone mentioned the other day, contracts seem to be a year longer than they should be... well, that is one of the reasons. So even when a guy puts on an extra 20-30 pounds, he's going to get a contract because he's shown he can do it. It's not smart, but when you're dealing with a core of 750 players, plus a small percentage of minor leaguers who can step up, that's what you are going to get.

In short, a guy won't eat his way out of the bigs at 25 because some team will take a shot at him. But his performance will likely deteriorate quickly (a la K. Mitchell) if he doesn't get better when it comes to conditioning.

Regfairfield, I don't know what you think people who think Cabrera's weight gain is worrisome believe will happen to Cabrera, because you keep objecting that Cabrera is going to continue to hit, when nobody seems to be saying he won't hit. Standing at the plate and swinging a bat is about the least athletic part of a baseball player's routine, and plenty of players who do that well and can't do anything else well play the game -- in the American League, as DH's, or as Manny Ramirez. If you believe, like JoeyP, that the ability to avoid being a big defensive liability on a National League team is unimportant, say so, but I don't think you believe that, or at least I don't recall you articulating that sentiment.

17- Mondesi is a great example....guy could have been a hall of famer...

Cabrera's run totals likely dropped because guys like Joe Borchard were batting behind him a lot.

18 I've seen lots of people saying he won't hit. I've seen people saying things like Cabrera will hit .270/.330/.380 as a Dodger (the most extreme example). When so many people say I don't want Miguel Cabrera because he's fat, they're certainly implying that he's going to fall off the table.

Cabrera's defensive liability is a huge issue. I agree with that. He's a left fielder or a first baseman, no question about it. Even with this liability, however, he's still a 55-60 run player at his worst at age 25, which keeps him as elite status.

18
I tend to think that the weight gain issue will be a non-issue because I see the agent of Miggy sitting him down to have the conversation with the following points:

1) If you take off 5-8% of your body fat, you are more likely to play for a really good team next year and showcase your abilities for free agency.

2) If you take off the weight now, in two years, I can probably get you an extra 2-3 years and $45-70 million on a contract. That's about $2 mil per pound that you lose.

I think that the weight issue is being considered by Colletti and Reagins, so in dealing with the team and agent, I am sure that a status update on his new training regimen is being passed out under the table.

Basically, I just want people to acknowledge that whether or not you want to deal a large package of talent for him, Miguel Cabrera is an elite player. That's all I'm asking.

22 - call me skeptical, but if I were a GM, I'd want to see Cabrera in good shape for two years straight before I even think of giving him a contract. And you better believe there is going to be a weight clause in any contract he gets.

I'm not saying he's not a great talent, he is absolutely great. But, the weight gain shows me a lack of discipline off the field, and way too many guys have started off amazingly because of sheer talent, only to drop off when conditioning starts to matter.

Besides, if Cabrera is a first baseman or left fielder, I'd rather pass. We've already got Loney and Kemp/Ethier/Young to play those positions

23- I don't doubt that Cabrera is elite....But am I alone in thinking Kemp is closer to that level than advertised?

19-- Mondesi had other issues besides conditioning.

25 Until he figures out the strike zone, he's a lot closer to Mondesi than Cabrera.

Another great piece, Canuck. Very interesting offseason reading.

27 I agree, Kemp is approaching a crossroads where he can become an elite player or head off on the road to being a Mondesi. Attitude and ability to take constructive criticism will determine alot over the next year or so.

The geniusest spammer of all time (from my spam filter):

"Dear Hee Seop Choi,
"Los Angeles Dodgers First Baseman
"Cincinnati, Ohio

"My name is Mr. David Smith and I work with a Bank here in London-England, The name of the bank is Credit Suisse Banking Group. We had a , customer that had a deposit of GBP3.5M Three Million and Five Hundred Thousand Pounds Sterling) ..."

He got me to open the message, anyway. This is definitely 'carrying the name of Ch-i in vain,' so he'll be burning in eternal hellfire for his effort. But still, kudos.

29 I partially agree, but that crossroads can be a huge period of time, three or four years.

Right now, Kemp is almost pure projection. He obviously has power, but he really hasn't shown it at all the last two years (17 home runs between AA/AAA/MLB in 2006, 14 between AAA/MLB last year), and he has no concept of the strike zone. However, I can also tell you that he's only the third Dodger I've seen in my life that crushes the ball every time he hits it. Only Piazza and Sheffield showed that ability.

If Kemp doesn't show real improvement in the next three years, then he'll probably never be a great player, but three years is a long time.

31 a nagging part of me sees Billy Ashley...

32 Which is really, really unfair. At Kemp's age, Ashley was fanning once every 3.3 at bats in Albuquerque.

I wonder if Kemp is developing an attitude problem from seeing questions about his attitude incessantly linked to his name.

All it took was one article, and now its almost common knowledge among sportswriters at even the national level that he's a potential problem. Who knew the trashcan decision could be such a pivotal moment in his career.

17 - Talent is like air, the higher you go, the thinner it gets.

And in Los Angeles, at least, the closer you get to the bottom, the more polluted.

I'm of the opinion that if Matt Kemp truly had an attitude , Dave Stewart would make sure that it didn't become a problem.

32
1. Matt Kemp and Billy Ashley are very dissimilar types of players, in my view. They merely share a bunch of superficial qualities such as being large humans who hit the ball real hard. (They both struck out a lot, too, but I wouldn't count that as a similarity since Kemp is nowhere near Ashley's league.)

2. Kemp's minor league track record is far, far more impressive than Ashley's was, even before you take age into account (which would tilt things even further in Kemp's favor).

3. Billy Ashley is perhaps not entirely deserving of the Dodger bogeyman status he currently holds. There's a chance he could have become a useful player had he been given a chance, which he never was. And he did break (or almost break) the MLB record for pinch homers one year for us, IIRC.

More great insight we can't get elsewhere. Thanks to Jon and Canuck.

36 Dave Stewart still has a chip on his shoulder after being retired for nearly a decade, and was never one for conformity in the first place, so I'm not sure how he could help Kemp in that regard.

BTW, Canuck, great read up top. The one comment I have is that there appears to be a great deal of thought going on as to whether these guys could stick on an MLB roster for a year. But really, that's irrelevant. Teams have learned to hide Rule 5 picks on the DL all year with mysterious injuries, then send them back to the minors the following year. You can stash the guy on your 60-day DL too and it doesn't even count against your 40-man roster. So really, all it would take to lose one of these guys is a team that kinda wants him and is willing to spend $50,000 on him.

We acquired Derek Thompson via the Rule 5/DL method a few years ago.

Why don't we just move Matt Kemp to third base? He can't be as bad a fielder as Ryan Braun.

Problem, solved!

:)

Is Thompson still in baseball? It looks like he was an NRI in Oakland in 2007, but neither the Cube, nor Minor League Splits have any numbers on him for the regular season.

Yes! Kemp to third base. Which means LaRoche has to move to the outfield.

Problem solved.

39--To clarify my thought: I wouldn't expect Kemp to become some sort of a conformist. I meant that Stewart wouldn't allow his "attitude" to prevent him from becoming the player he could be ala Mondesi for example.

41 I sort of lost track of Thompson after he blew out his arm again and got busted for (I think it was) stealing money from a casino in Florida.

That's right. I forgot he was the one who ran afoul of The Man.

Thompson does, however, have possibly the best single transaction listed on Baseball-Reference:

"December 21, 2006: Signed as a Free Agent with ???."

31 I would like to see a breakdown of Kemps hits to the various parts of the field because I saw him go the other way quite a bit on outside curveballs and hit a few homers that way. I think his plate discipline is far ahead of what Mondesi ever had.

18--Has Manny Ramirez been a detriment to the Boston Red Sox?

Defense seems to be largely overrated, in comparison to power pitching and power hitting.

If the Dodgers can fill the roster with power hitting and power pitching---then the defense will sort itself out.

If the worst-case scenario is Kemp becoming Mondesi, well, I'll take that. It means he'll have a few 30-30 seasons, win a few Gold Gloves, play on several playoff teams, and put forth maximum effort on the field.

As you can probably tell, I don't get all the Mondesi-bashing. The guy was a good player.

Is he still a congressman?

47- http://tinyurl.com/32v8mz

Mondesi could never lay off of that curveball low and away. Kemp either lays off or smacks it in the gap from the games I have watched or been at.
As far as his attitude, I was impressed that he spent last winter in the Dominican League working on hitting the curveball and laying off of it. I think that was why he had bad numbers last winter when he was there. He went there to work on hitting the curveball. I think that league elevated his play tremendously and I hope Laroche has the same results from his winter league play.

Mondesi was ROY at age 23 and what an arm! I loved to watch him play.

50 for the type of hitter that Kemp is, that seems like a pretty good distribution to me. That would show me that he hits for power to all fields and being young still, he will likely get better. He actually hit more homeruns to the opposite field.
Thanks for the link Andrew Shimmin!

So much for ix-naying the Abrera-cay alk-tay!

Mondesi was an elite defender too, from what I remember. He was very fast to balls down the line and in the gap, and his arm was accurate as well as strong. He also was a very good baserunner. I'd say Kemp will likely never be the outfielder nor the baserunner that Mondi was, but he could (I think will) be a better hitter.

50
What a weird distribution. All doubles to Left. Homers evenly spread, and almost all flyouts were to Right.

Did you guys actually click on all 20 ballparks for Kemp's hit chart, or are you just going by the Dodger Stadium chart?

I was too lazy to click through all of them, I admit. I wish there was an option where it would just show all parks on the same screen.

When I played baseball, I (a right-handed hitter) consistently hit

1. groundballs to left
2. linedrives to center
3. flyballs to right

What does that say about me?

58 You liked swinging at outside pitches?

Accd to the Chicago Sun Times we've offered Hunter a 5-yr deal: http://tinyurl.com/ysukg6

So I infer Colletti's CF wishlist looks like this:

1) Hunter
2) Rowand
3) Cameron
4) Jones

57 Just Dodger Stadium.

58 It says you're typical of most righties. The natural uppercut swing leads to those results. It's something Ted Williams talked about in his hitting book. That's why he says that the hardest thing to do is pull balls in the air.

57 just looking at his distribution at NL West ball parks, it is similar in most. Pretty even distribution with Coors Field, Kemp hitting with power the other way.
God, I hope they keep that kid.

How many 5-year deals in Dodger history have worked in the team's favor?

1. Dreifort: disaster
2. Pierre: disaster

Others?

JD Drew's 5-year deal worked out, in large part bc of the 2year out.

Unfortuntately, even if Pierre's deal had a 2yr out, I dont think he'd take it.

64 Kevin Brown, although considered by many to be a disaster, was in my view a spectacular success.

Hmm. How long did we sign Darryl for?

From what I saw, Kemp did improve his plate discipline from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. Meaning...that his chances of developing into a star are realistic.

For that matter, how many 5+ year deals work in any team's favor?

I have to think that, on average, long-term deals are much better for the players than they are for the teams.

The Angels have some interest in bringing back free agents David Eckstein and Darin Erstad, according to the Orange County Register's Randy Youngman.

68 If I was a GM, I would have a hard time signing anybody for more than 3-4 years. I guess that would make me a GM who never made the big time aquistition, but there are very few players that I would give that to. Bonds in his prime being the only one for 5 or more years, or Clemens maybe in his prime.

68
Some do (Vlad Guerrero, ARod) but I will agree that is probably 5-1 in favor of the deals that should not have been done.

You wonder if some GMs look at the last year of a five year dela as a cost of doing business sort of risk. They may look at the first four years of the deal as being worth the last year sucking turnips.

How long was Maddux's first contract with Atlanta?

Maddux signed with the Braves in December of 1992 for 5 years for a total of $28 million.

Vlad, A-Rod, Clemens, Randy Johnson, Maddux, and Bonds are a few 5+ year free agents who worked out spectacularly well.

So I guess the moral of the story is, if you're going to give five years or more, make sure you give it to a future Hall of Famer, and not Juan Pierre.

73 Didn't he do a 5 year $57 million contract after that one expired?

Other players who signed on that same day as Greg Maddux back in 1992 (December 9).

Andre Dawson with Boston for 2 years and $9.3 million.

Randy Myers with the Cubs for 3 years and $11 million.

Mike Moore with Detroit for 3 years and $10 million.

Todd Worrell with the Dodgers for 3 years and $9.5 million.

Dave Martinez with the Giants for 2 years and $2.2 million.

Milt Thompson with the Phillies for 2 years and $2.75 million.

75
Maddux re-upped before becoming a free agent. He wasn't one again until 2002.

60 I wonder if that's due more to Ned holding the belief that Jones' 2007 was a sign of things to come or to the presence of Mr. Glossy?

78

It has to be the latter. If Ned really thought that far ahead about Jones, then why would Torii Hunter be at the top of his theoretical "list"? Hunter figures to have a higher probability than Jones does.

A higher probability of declining than Jones does, I meant to say.

Shane Youman and Josh Phelps are now part of the free agent bonanza.

The line forms to the left.

"But, the weight gain shows me a lack of discipline off the field, and way too many guys have started off amazingly because of sheer talent, only to drop off when conditioning starts to matter."

In a way, MCAB is like a child prodigy. He was a better hitter at 21 than most hitters are, ever. Obviously, this is a tremendous, God-given natural talent that didn't necessarily require a lot of discipline to develop to where it is now. It seems likely he will always hit extremely well, barring injury. So the question about his discipline comes down to, can he find it at this age? I think you have to give him the benefit of the doubt, but not that much benefit.

We could get MCAB, see two years of great hitting, lousy fielding and further weight gain. In two years, he'd be a free agent, probably looking to land on an AL team, so the idea of the Dodgers signing him to a long-term contract would become moot unless th