MSM is losing $viewership$ to bloggers, as they should. It's amusing to watch them grasp for straws. Somebody must feel threatened? vr, Xei

So were there any particularly interesting tidbits from today's BA chat, or is it still going on?

Give 'em heck, Jon. I'll still never forgive Fox for reporting the Randy Johnson-to-L.A. blockbuster as a done deal. Next thing you know, they'll be calling the presidential elections early too ;)

BTW - If you want to see a board in near implosion, UCLA boards are going off every rumor re their next coach.

Along these lines, from the ESPN blog:

3:34 p.m., from Buster Olney
• The Blue Jays continue to talk with the Orioles about left-hander Erik Bedard. Toronto probably has the young pitching to anchor a deal.

5 Also, Red Sox at a 5th player in the Santana deal and the Angels are back supposedly in the mix for Cabrera.

Actually the Hot Stove League is brought to you by Vitajex.

Vitajex, what you doin to me?

For what it's worth Keith Law felt that Bedard would be the best player to target between MCAB, Johan, and Haren.

I'm loving Hot Stove, but the overreactions to rumors is a bit strange. I overreacted to the Betemit deal, but at least it was a real deal.

4
I found the basketball board after the Texas loss to be much worse.

The thing that depresses me about the Hot Stove is that its pretty much the end of constant baseball news until pitchers and catchers report.

I have the jitters today like an expectant father.

Please don't trade Kemp!

Rumormongering as all we have instead of actual news, or actual baseball. There's a "thrill of victory, agony of defeat" element to it that's very similar to following a game. Throw in the fact that all the armchair GMs who post here honestly believe that they could do a better job than Ned Colletti, and it's no wonder there's trenchant breast-beating about every morsel of information, no matter how real or bogus.

I shall now return to tearing my hair out by the fistful. Thank you.

Tony Jackson:

"The rumor of the hour, at least where your hometown Dodgers are concerned, seems to be that they are coveting Baltimore's Erik Bedard and that there is a possible deal in the works that would send Jonathan Broxton and Matt Kemp to the Orioles. I find that hard to believe, mostly that the Dodgers would part with Broxton at a time when they are about to enter the season with a 38-year-old closer, but I'm running it down anyway."

I'm not sure that Jackson has pinned down the top reason for not believing the rumor, but it's not as if he thinks it's happening.

I hope you're right. Can someone explain why Matt Kemp is even being discussed (if, in fact, he is). Isn't Kemp's potential too high to risk trading? It's one thing if a bat like Cabrera's comes back in the deal, but trading Kemp and signing someone like Andruw Jones makes no sense.

"There's nothing I'm afraid of like scared people" -- Robert Frost

Uh... I'm a bit scared today.

12 - "There's a "thrill of victory, agony of defeat" element to it that's very similar to following a game."

If the game involved runs that were reported to have scored but turned out not really to have scored.

9 Really, I guess from the perspective of why is everyone so upset but this is interesting only because there is no real basis of any of the information except from "insiders" and certainly not by those who run the site.

Would Gagne come back as a set-up man?

Would Saito sign as a Gagne's set-up man?

Could Proctor be our set-up man?

14 If Delmon Young can be dealt, why not Kemp? Just asking?

17
I understand having paranoia about the football program, but I do not accept hysteria and questioning when it comes to Ben Howland and the basketball program. Especially, when Greg and Tracy answer a ton of questions on that board to begin with.

14 - Welcome, new commenter P4D?

I think we should play the Telephone Game with hot stove rumors. See what we can change a rumor to by the end of the game. It's fun for the whole family!

18 - Evan Grant's fans will have seen him write today about Gagne looking at a Texas return.

I'd definitely like to get Bedard, and I don't see why the O's wouldn't want 2 or 3 prospects and 1 major leaguer instead of 2 MLers. They're not really in "win now" mode.

How do people think he compares to Haren?

Bedard was hurt last year, but what about 05 when he only started 24 games?

19

Because Delmon Young sucked last year. He's basically the same age as Kemp, but posted a .288/.316/.408 line, which is hideous for a corner outfielder. Devil Rays also upgraded big time at shortstop, which they needed to do in a huge way.

16 Not exactly. It's similar to the nervous anticpation that occurs when something good might be happening (Dodgers have the bases loaded/Dodgers might be about to trade Juan Pierre), or when something bad is about to happen (Giants have the bases loaded/Ned has a deal in place with Aaron Rowand).

The rumors are just the prelude to the event.

19 - And Erik Bedard is a lot better than Garza.

I think Bedard would be phenomenal in the NL. He could have the season that Jake Peavy just had for the Padres last year. I think I'm prepared to give up Kemp and Broxton for 2 years of that. And with Andruw Jones quickly running out of options, he could be brought with a pretty comfortable contract to replace Kemp in the OF. I'm actually most worried about what Ned would do to replace Broxton in the pen.

Yep, just registered, but have been enjoying the site for a good year. Certainly the most intelligent Dodger site I've come across.

14 I think the idea is that as highly valued a young budding power CF is, so is a young dominant power/control left handed pitcher. Both are rare. The latter may be more rare (raw?).

27
Just wondering why you prefer two years of one really good player for many years of two potentially really good players?

Not to hideous for a 21 year old outfielder who played in 162 major league games, when most guys are trying to hit AA pitching.
Age is somehow always lost in these translations.

I'm actually most worried about what Ned would do to replace Broxton in the pen

Easy: just go to 2007 player pitching stats and sort by the "SV" column, descending.

Joe Borowski, anyone?

Irresponsibility in sports correspondence is one thing. But this is the Winter Meetings, so rumors are abundant. This is the off season, where nothing is happening other than pontification. Who cares if people go hog wild over the alternative possibilities?

Steve Phillips just said the Blue Jays are talking to Giants about Rios for Lincecum or Cain.

Ned needs to get in on this.

27 You really think Bedard projects as a Cy Young candidate for the next two years? For that matter, Kemp could put up Manny type numbers for more than two years, which would you rather have?

30 - I value proven, Cy Young-caliber starting pitching over hitting. I'm also just skeptical enough on Kemp's abilities that I'm not calling him an untouchable. Broxton as a reliever seems replaceable enough to me.

I really like Bedard, and my first reaction to the rumored trade was, the price seemed fair. It is fair; nonetheless I have more faith that we will be able to fill the Bedard slot from within than we will be able to fill the Kemp slot from within or outside.

However, if we could get Bedard for what is being asked; and get Cabrera for LaRoche/Kershaw/McDonald; and sign Jones; and figure that by May Torre has made Pierre a part-time player and is fielding an outfield of Ethier/Jones/Young. We'd have let go of four top prospects + Broxton, but gotten back three under-30 stars.

Furcal
Martin
Loney
Cabrera
Jones
Kent
Ethier
Pierre/Young

...will score a lot of runs

Penny
Billingsley
Bedard
Lowe
Schmidt? Elbert?

...is scary

Saito
Proctor
Meloan

...not as good as last season, but Meloan could surprise.

It's not irrational. It's definitely a lot of sausage-making though. The lamentations would last til Opening Day.

36
But hitting is our problem.

14 Because Eric Bedard is one of the elite pitchers in baseball. I personally think the Dodgers are misidentifying a need with this, but it's not like we're getting Mark Hendrickson here.

"i hate the hot stove as much as i hate me" -- Anonymous

Uh... I'm a bit hating myself and the hot stove today.

33 - Again, I've never said people need to have radio silence on the rumors.

But if you think that overall "irresponsibility in sports correspondence" is not related to the standard being set at this time of year, I think you're mistaken.

35 - I like Kemp a lot, but I don't think Manny is a very good comp for him. Kemp just doesn't have the eye that Manny has. Kemp got pretty lucky last year to have a .342 average, and I just worry what happens when his grounders start finding fielders.

And, yeah, we're not talking about getting Baez here. If Bedard can pitch the way he did last year for the next 2 years, he's very much in the Cy Young conversation.

39
I like having too much of a good thing (pitching) and think we could buy Kemp's production this year with Jones, but I wonder what else they want besides Brox. Hu or Abreu is probably in there somewhere.

In the long run, unless we can sign Bedard long term, this trade would seem to be a slight loss for the Dodgers.

39
He was an elite pitcher in 2007 and the 2nd half of 2006 because of huge jumps in his K/Rate and better command. Do you think he can maintain the jumps in K/Rate and command going forward?

38 - I don't think we have one problem. We need more starting pitching for sure, but we also haven't had any real power hitting for a couple of years. I think the hitting next year will be better just by letting Loney and Laroche play. Pitching should be better too, but it would take a quantum leap forward with Bedard.

Andre Dawson is good comp of what Kemp can become on the plus side. Ellis Valentin is good comp on what can happen on the downside.
Manny is a terrible comp, he had plate discipline the 1st day he played in the major leagues at the same age.

44 Yeah, it seems like that's something that's sustainable, though he is peaking a bit late for my taste. He's got at least three or four very good years left in him I'd say.

45 I still don't get where the "we need more starting pitching" sentiment comes from. We had the fourth best staff in the NL last year (behind two teams who played in much more pitcher freindly parks), and now our reserves include McDonald, Elbert and Kershaw instead of Stulton and Wells. Our pitching is fine.

42
Kemp got pretty lucky last year to have a .342 average

Lucky? How is hitting the ball for average lucky? Isn't the definition of how well you actually hit the ball and not make an out, your batting average?
Please explain what you mean by lucky.

So a "source" says a deal is "close" and two hours later Bedard may be going to the Jays? Either Ned backed off or Bedard's agent is trying to see what he can get out of Toronto. Personally, I'd move Broxton for a starter of that quality, but I don't see Kemp going.

48 Whether or not a ball in play finds a fielder has a good bit of luck to it. There's no skill in hitting a ball just out of a fielders reach.

46 Andre Dawson is a good comparison. I think Kemp is more athletic (agile) with more speed and potential to steal.

The durability of Kemp is an issue to be concerned about. He is bit reckless at times it seems. That could put him on the shelf often.

Imagine what Eric Davis could have done had he controlled some of his attempts to be on the highlight reels?

46 And Kemp hasn't shown us a Dawson-like arm yet.

47 - The back end of our rotation was horrible last year, two league average inning eaters might have been enough to get us into the playoffs last year. The cumulative ERA was good because the front 3 are very good, but it isn't like anyone is thinking: "Bedard? Oh no, whose spot is he going to take?".

Re: 47

Is it possible to have too much starting pitching? Especially with injuries always being a possibility? Kershaw's still very young, Elbert's coming off injury, and McDonald is still question mark.

I know the offense needs work, but if we swing a deal for Jones, dump Pierre, and play LaRoche, I think the offense could make up for Kemp's absence.

WWSH

48 - He had a .411 batting average on balls in play, far and away the highest on the team (Loney was next at .350). His LD% was pretty average at 17.5%.

Not saying he's a bad hitter, but I don't seem him as a solid .320-type hitter which he'll need to be to keep that OBP afloat.

Re: 49

There you go again--using evidence! Bah! I want to speculate some more. :)

WWSH

"All the armchair GMs who post here honestly believe that they could do a better job than Ned Colletti":

A year ago, uncertain whether the kids were ready, Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti spent $125 million signing free agents Jason Schmidt, Randy Wolf, Juan Pierre, Luis Gonzalez, Nomar Garciaparra and Mike Lieberthal.

I'm not saying 100% of the armchair GM's on here are better than Colletti, but 75%, 80%?

All I know is that if I own a team, I'm not going to hire a guy from a rival team, who hadn't been successful in their deals (see Liriano, Nathan, and Bonser for Pierzynski) over Kim Ng, Logan White, or young talented baseball operations people (Antonetti, Byrnes, Forst, etc.), but now I'm being an armchair owner too, what do I know?

49 Personally, I'd move Broxton for a starter of that quality, but I don't see Kemp going.

What does this mean? How do you get a starter of Bedard's quality for just Broxton? You gotta give up something good to get something good. This comes down to each person's personal choice of which side they fall on in the whole "bird in hand or two in bush" question.

While we focus on Kemp, I think Jackson may be onto something with regards to Broxton--Ned may value the "proven closer" bit more than a lot of us, which is why he may be most leery of giving up the bullpen insurance behind Saito.

WWSH

46 manny walked twice in his first 53 career ab's, so to say from day one he had great discipline might be a little bit of a stretch.

in about the same number of ab's (292 vs. 290) in the second years, manny drew 25 more walks. yes, that's a lot, but not enough to call it a terrible comparison.

Re: 57

Errhhhh.. I do think being a GM is a lot harder than most people realize.

WWSH

56 It's that whole history, evidence thing again. The bane of our collective professional existence ;-)

I actually predicted last month that we'd send Kemp to Baltimore for Bedard, but I still hope it doesn't happen. The Ox plus Pierre or Young plus another prospect, fine, but Bison is going to be too good.

60 Manny walked 72 times in 1993 between AA and AAA.

Matt Kemp has walked about 90 times in the last three years.

54
Though I had not considered it before, essentially replacing Kemp's offense with LaRoche's might be a way to talk yourself into a deal involving Kemp. Kemp's BABIP (55 ) will come to earth in the form of a .260-.290 avg. with little current plate discipline. I really like the idea of holding on to the guy who can walk and get on base even when he is slumping.

34 You lost me at "Steve Phillips said..."

With regards to the replacement for Kemp, I think that ToyCannon's point in the last thread about the Fukudome rumors as a possible replacement intriguing.

54 No, but when you're making your offense abysmally bad to acquire that pitching you have a problem.

Yes, I realize we can actually go sign someone to replace Kemp.

58 I simply meant of the two names mentioned. Obviously we'd have to send more than the Big Man. How about Pierre or Young and one or two real prospects? The O's need pretty much everything.

66
Fukudome, Pierre, and Ethier would be one of the weakest outfield lineups in the game.

Ethier would be the power guy.

66 Unless Fukudome manages to defy the trend of Japanese players losing all their power in the States, he forces us into having another 15 bomb corner outfielder for the next few years.

Why on earth were the Brewers talking to the Cardinals about Scott Rolen...?

55
Gotcha. Thanks for elaborating.

65
He is as credible as the rest of these people.

Okay, that does not really prove anything, but we should screw over the Giants anyways.

While I incline toward the idea of keeping the kids, trying to sign a free agent or two, and otherwise standing pat ....

Best example I can remember of the kind of story Jon is criticizing is this one. Apparently, at the winter meetings around 1960, a few sportswriters were talking--if memory serves, Stan Isaacs and Larry Merchant were among them--and tried to come up with the nuttiest rumor they could to get a story. It hit them. The Giants needed a manager. Who was the least likely person they could think of managing a team?

Yogi Berra.

So, they floated it, and suddenly Yogi was being mentioned for every imaginable managerial opening. And as he went on to prove, he wasn't that bad! But so much for in-depth reporting.

71 I've noticed that Doug Melvin has a hard time knowing how good a player is.

Ethier would be the power guy

There's a good chance Ethier will be the OBP guy, which isn't a good thing.

Don't get me wrong, being a MLB GM is a relentless, sleep-depriving, arduous job that not many people can actually handle

BUT!!! investing 9 million a year for 5 years on Juan Pierre whose skills (speed and ability to make contact) will nonetheless depreciate (as will his defense, terrible arm, extremely low OPS)over the course of his deal. That was a terrible deal and money that would have been better spent on a short term solution (arbitration to Kenny Lofton or 1yr CF FA) while waiting to invest 45 million this offseason, where some of the best CF's in the game had the potential to be available (at the time of the contract with Pierre, Vernon Wells, Andruw Jones after a great year, Eric Byrnes, Torii Hunter, Aaron Rowand, and Fukudome were all possibly going to be available this offseason).

See also: Signing Nomar to a 2 year deal for over 18 million was just silly

Had he enough at bats to qualify, Matt Kemp would've led the major leagues in IFH% (Infield Hit Percentage) with a whopping 16.3%, nearly 3 percentage points ahead of league leader I.Suzuki. For example, the next closest full-time Dodger in that category was Rafael Furcal at 8.9%. Juan Pierre who rumor has it, is a speedy guy clocked in at 6.1%, while Pujols a guy who rumor has it, can hit the ball on the nose, clocked in at a mere 4.1%. There will definitely be some regression on the batting average from Kemp, he strikes out an awful lot and doesn't take too many base on balls. He's a very good player, but I don't think what he did last year is sustainable.

vr, Xei

Nobody advocated for Fukudome, ToyCannon just mentioned that the Fukudome rumor and the Bedard rumor coming to the forefront at the same time could mean that he is the replacement. I just thought that it was an interesting observation.

64. Or you could look at it as...

is...
Kemp - (his replacement)
>
LaRoche - (his replacement)

vr, Xei

There will definitely be some regression on the batting average from Kemp, he strikes out an awful lot and doesn't take too many base on balls. He's a very good player, but I don't think what he did last year is sustainable

I think it's essentially a given that his BA isn't sustainable. The bigger question, then, is whether his OPS is sustainable, which is to say, whether he can increase his patience and power while his BA (inevitably?) drops.

I personally think his power is more likely to increase than his patience.

Give Bedard an extension. Make the deal.

79
On the other hand you would not see me complaining about a Kemp/Fukudome/Ethier lineup in the outfield.
I'd really love the chance to chant his name ala HSC.

83 Isn't that like five syllables too many?

For the record, although I don't mind the rumored (and probably false) Bedard rumor, I'd much rather we try to improve by signing either of the premiere Japanese free agents, and just keep all the kids on the roster, hopefully either trading Pierre or seeing him become (hopefully) a fourth OF during the early part of the season.

WWSH

83. I think a lot of people would like that, although I've heard conflicting reports about his ability to play centerfield.

84 Its perfect for a fu-ku-do-me (clap clap, clap-clap-clap) chant.

Roto based scouting reports from baseball HQ Japanese baseball prospect hound.
Kosuke Fukudome (Fuku-Doh-Meh): Outfielder. Definitely the best hitter to be coming out of this upcoming year's players. Fukudome is a "Bobby Abreu type hitter" with strong defense and a strong arm, according to Baseball Guru's Jim Albright. Played in a park with ML dimensions, so some of his power may translate. Comment: Top of the list. All signs point to him playing in the ML in '08. Don't be fooled by the fact I'm not writing much about him. This is one you want.

Hiroki Kuroda: Solid SP with two good years in a row then a slight fall-off in ERA and K's in 2007. Good control and was scouted by several ML teams last year and more this year. Would make a decent #3 or #4 SP with a mid-90's fastball and several off pitches including the "shuutobooru" or "shootball", supposedly a combination of a fastball, a slider and a sinker, reminiscent of a screwball

I would like to see Kuroda signed for the same contract we gave Furcal, which should be enough to beat the Mariners reported offer.

I would also like to see Jones/Fukudome signed and Pierre either benched or traded.

I would prefer Young over Pierre as the 4th out fielder.

Repko will sadly go the way of Cody Ross.

86 From what I hear it seems like Fukudome is a Japanese JD Drew. With similar power dropoff/injury concerns.

I agree that Kemp's BA is not completely sustainable, but it's probably more sustainable than those who take BABIP as gospel think it is. I think we're overlooking the role Kemp's speed plays in getting infield hits. His great BABIP was partly luck, but only partly. I'd expect him to continue to have a BABIP that's well above average, at least until he starts to lose his speed.