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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
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Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
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* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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Two years, $36 million. A good move that can be made better if the right outfielder is displaced. More in the morning.
Update: Okay, I couldn't resist getting this in before midnight.
This move improves the Dodgers, but they can shortcircuit it by overvaluing or undervaluing the wrong players.
Signing Jones (at the cost of a $12 million signing bonus, a $9 million salary in 2008 and $15 million in 2009, according to Tony Jackson of the Daily News - the fifth-highest average annual salary in baseball history, Dylan Hernandez of the Times notes) should not leave the Dodgers satisfied to play Juan Pierre in left field, nor need it push the team into trading Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier. An Ethier-Jones-Kemp outfield is practically a dream for this franchise.
Signing Jones should also not discourage the Dodgers from trying out Andy LaRoche at third base. LaRoche, many people believe, has as much power upside as any Dodger, including Kemp or James Loney. (LaRoche's career minor-league slugging percentage and OPS is higher than the others; I don't know how many Dodger fans realize this.) There are better third basemen out there, but there are also plenty worse, and giving up a good player for marginal improvement (let alone decline) would me a mistake.
Don't get me wrong: There are still good trades the Dodgers could potentially make, but the thinking here is solid - add talent without disrupting the core.
Jones, of course, made his major-league debut at 19, hitting two homers in the World Series that year, and has had an above-average OPS+ for eight of the past 10 seasons. Jones won't knock you out with his on-base percentage: career-high of .366, and only once above .350 in the past five years. His offensive value depends on his power, and what happened is that he went from 51 homers in 2005 to 26 in 2007.
That he fell on his face this past season, aside from putting a lie to the idea that imminent free agency guarantees a great year, reminds us that there are no guarantees from former All-Stars once they turn 30. Dodger fans need look no further than Nomar Garciaparra's 2007 to know that. At the same time, hopes are high that injuries were at fault and that the injuries have been solved. The Dodgers wouldn't be the Dodgers if they weren't taking a health risk, but I'm having trouble being pessimistic.
At least defensively, Jones will help. A winner of 10 consecutive Gold Gloves, no matter how quirky that vote can get, figures to be an improvement over Pierre in center.
The signing also fulfills my dream of pushing Jeff Kent down the batting order from cleanup, where he just doesn't belong. The Dodgers will be pretty righty heavy, however. Here's what we could see in April:
Rafael Furcal, SS
Russell Martin, C
James Loney, 1B
Andruw Jones, CF
Jeff Kent, 2B
Matt Kemp, RF
Nomar Garciaparra/Andy LaRoche, 3B
Juan Pierre/Andre Ethier, LF
That ain't bad, folks. With Tony Abreu or Chin-Lung Hu subbing defensively for Kent in the late innings, I'm ready to battle with that lineup. And Kent should probably be able to ease even further down that batting order road as the kids heat up.
As for the Ethier-Pierre resolution, though Pierre figures to have the advantage because of his contract status and phantom value in the eyes of some, just remember that Colletti has every reason to boost Ethier, as he represents one of his most popular trades. And once you move Pierre out of center field, you render one of his few assets, his defensive speed, much less important. And remember, Colletti has cut bait on acquisitions that didn't work out the way he planned each of the past two seasons.
Certainly, though, the leading speculation is that Kemp or Ethier will go in a package for a starting pitcher. If that happens, he'd better be a gem, because a Pierre-Jones-Ethier outfield isn't nearly as compelling.
If it's cool with everyone else, I'm going to wait on the gloom/doom or joy decision until we see what happens our fourth outfielder situation.
If Pierre is playing somewhere else next year, than this is a great move. If Pierre is in left for the Dodgers next year, it's a lateral move.
Still, hope springs eternal.
Let me join in the invocation: please oh please, let it be Pierre who is traded.
Reasons to keep Kemp and Ethier:
(1) They're better than Pierre (might as well begin with the obvious)
(2) Jones has a short term contract, and the Dodgers do not have much outfield depth in the system. All the more reason to keep some young outfielders.
(3) As a left-handed hitter, Ethier provides some balance to the heart of the lineup -- otherwise, only Loney hits left. Yeah, Pierre is a lefty as well, but that's less important batting after Furcal or in the 8 slot.
(4) Kemp could hit 40. Keep him. Keep him. He stings the ball like no one I've seen play for the Dodgers since, well, Piazza.
trade pierre not kemp, trade pierre not kemp...
You know there is a word for that. (Well not really a word.) Geez, you go away for a few days and your forgotten.
I beat you to it in last thread. Although, my proposal was I would rather have Pierre at third than Feliz.
Banish Juan to Baltimore now please. Thanks.
Keep Ethier and Kemp!
An outfield like that makes me wanna buy season tickets.
I think we should have, however, signed him to a longer deal. In the very likely event that he rebounds, we will have missed out on a bargain.
1) Frank Robinson
2) Eddie Matthews
3) Johnny Bench
I was LATed.
Is that an appropriate use of the term?
(Us relative newbies -- we're just so uninformed)
Isn't it a principle of negotiation to establish a position you want to start out with and say it's firm and then compromise as events transpire?
Not that I can negotiate anything. I get taken to the cleaners by dry cleaners.
I will be positively ecstatic if they dump Pierre instead of Ethier or Kemp, but remember that we should still get a quality return if we do trade one of the youngsters.
My ideal scenario: trade Pierre for whatever, let LaRoche play 3B
Worst-case scenario: Kemp is traded at less than full value for a suboptimal choice (i.e. someone like Rolen)
My bold prediction: Kemp, Hu, and Meloan to the Orioles for Bedard and Tejada
Let LaRoche and Nomar battle it out at 3rd. I still think LaRoche is an undervalued prospect. Another pitcher would be nice in lieu of the Schmidt disaster, but a Schmidt, Penny, Lowe, Bills, Loazia/Kuo rotation is at least okay on paper.
on the other hand, i guess the angels paid hunter close to that much over 5 years, which is even worse.
Furcal SS
Martin C
Loney 1st
Kent 2b
Jones CF
Kemp RF
Eithier LF
LaRoche 3b
Penny P
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3143653
doom and gloom is not an option. kemp and either are not leaving. if anyone leaves it will be pierre. I don't know how it happened but the dodgers are making all the prudent moves. fear not these are golden days
Well, not our right outfielder - that's Kemp.
If it requires Ethier to get Bedard, well, OK. Otherwise, I sure hope not.
I suspect that, short of something like that (and how many "somethings" are there like Bedard?) they won't trade any outfielder. Ethier will start the year as 4th outfielder, but will have to be given chances in both left and right field, like last year. This year that will displace Pierre much more often than Kemp. Before the trading deadline, if Ethier is the good Ethier, Pierre will be on the verge of being 4th outfielder, and will instead get traded by the deadline, Dodgers eating much of the salary, for whichever part of the pitching staff needs bolstering (or, god forbid, some other position ruined by injury).
Well, we can hope,
According to Webster's it's "KERR-uh-sau," unless you're from Britain, or you're Vinny, then it's "KERR-uh-so."
And don't get me started on Jones' first name. Why on earth has a random letter "U" caused so many people to butcher the first name as "ON-drew"? It's not even part of the same syllable, people! Rick Monday, I hope you're listening. Just pretend you're saying "Andrew."
I can certainly live with that lineup. Nice balance too. Also, great defense as all are above average defensively except Kent at 2nd (Abreu will be a late inning defensive/pinch runner replacement often).
Pierre - Fredo (hat tip to Brock)
Logan White - Tom Hagen
Scott Boras - Hyman Roth
Jeff Kent - Sonny
J.D. Drew - Tessio
Bob Daly - Jack Woltz
Grady Little - Moe Greene
Larry Beinfest - Virgil Sollozzo
Tom Lasorda - Frank Pantangeli
Ned Colletti - Senator Pat Geary
Paul DePodesta - Apollonia
I agree. There is some more support for the rotation in case of injury this year. I wouldn't count on Kershaw yet though. I think he is a 2009/2010 arrival unless he gets his control under control from the get go in 08.
Jones will receive a $12.2 million signing bonus, of which $5.1 million is payable next year, $2.1 million in 2009 and $5 million in 2010. He well get salaries of $9 million next year and $15 million in 2009, and also will receive a no-trade clause
Now the Dodgers need to give Jones a bit more rest than Cox allowed. And Jones probably needs to get in better shape.
Doubt Jones ever gets back into peak form. He has too big of a swing, chases too many sliders. But a 115 OPS-plus, 30 HRs and good defense are realistic.
We got some pop at every position with that lineup. Furcal has hit 15 twice and everyone else can hit 20 potentially, plus more for some.
/end sarcasm
Haren is signed through 2010 (if option is exercised):
2008: $4m
2009: $5.5m
2010: $6.75m option ($250k buyout); arb eligible if option bought out
Source: Cots Baseball Contracts
Whether they sign Kuroda or trade for Bedard or his ilk, I expect the final payroll will be in the $115-$120m range, barring some other blockbuster or unexpected major move.
Anyway, I expect a big season out of Jones. Often times when a guy has an uncharacteristically bad year he follows it up with a big one. Think Mike Lowell 2006 or Paul Konerko 2004.
For $15 a car, I have no problem with that. It is pretty funny that both the Dodgers and Angels signed huge contracts to both Pierre and Matthews for 5 years each and then the very next year went out and got an even more expensive center fielder. I don't see either of them in left field next year one way or another, but I have been surprised before.
Actually way more.
I agree. If there are anymore deals to be done, lets do it for pitching, although I am rooting for no more deals other than getting rid of Pierre.
furcal
martin
kemp
jones
loney
kent
ethier
laroche
pitcher
Put Ethier above LaRoche/Nomar. Ethier is valuable because he can play right as well, which Pierre can't in case of an injury to Kemp.
May be wishful thinking on my part, but I think this does improve the chances of LaRoche getting a meaningful opportunity to win the job. Rolen's bat becomes less appealing, I suspect -- and maybe the Rolen stuff was a ruse relating to negotiations with Andruw.
If Kent comes back, you now have Martin, Loney, Kent, Furcal, Ethier/Kemp/Pierre/Jones and 3B. You can play LaRoche in that situation and Ned is now saying that the job will be up for grabs this spring.
My fear was that if Kent didn't come back and they did not add someone like Andruw Jones, the Dodgers would be more inclined to go after someone to play 3B.
Like I said earlier, we will have a better idea tomorrow when I am sure there will be a press conference or conference call but for now, hey I think we are back doing good moves now lets see if we can make a great move.
But wasn't Ethier one of dePodesta's acquisitions, or am I misreading that last graf?
Pitching need solved! :)
Ethier was traded for Bradley, which was one of Ned's first deals.
Haha, no! Ethier for Bradley/A. Perez ring a bell?
Kent has a contract in theory, he is on the 40 man roster, he does not get paid until Opening Day so really, the Dodgers cannot really force his hand until he is contractually bound to perform.
He cannot go to another team, demand a trade or anything. He could retire but I believe the Dodgers would still retain his rights if he tried to quit and then resign with someone else.
My hunch is that the Jones deal is enough for Kent to sign on, if they were to deal for a pitcher, that would clinch it.
That, or they started reading Dodger Thoughts since they keep stealing our ideas :)
I don't think Nomar will ever play anything other than 3B or 1B ever again.
I read Texas likes Corey Patterson. Gotta figure Rowand goes to Chicago. Cameron is a wildcard. I think Minnesota can use Pierre if they hold on to Santana. And Dusty Baker would love to have him back.
There's no real guessing the batting order, and no reason to assume it would be the same from game to game anyway. Your points about Loney are valid, but even in your order there are three righties in a row.
I have Ethier batting eighth on the assumption that Nomar will be the opening day third baseman, and that he wouldn't bat eighth.