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SI.com
NL West Preview
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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 50-35 (.588)
When Jon attended: 9-5 (.643)
When Jon didn't: 41-30 (.577)
Dodgers at home: 795-635 (.556)
Jon attended: 302-238 (.559)*
Jon didn't: 498-404 (.552)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2009 Salaries
(updated November 14)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$10,000,000 Hiroki Kuroda
*$475,000 Chad Billingsley
*$415,000 Clayton Kershaw
*$405,000 Eric Stults
*$400,000 James McDonald
*Total: $11,695,000
Bullpen (7)
*$2,500,000 Takashi Saito
*$1,300,000 Scott Proctor
*$1,500,000 Jonathan Broxton
*$425,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
*$420,000 Cory Wade
*$410,000 Ramon Troncoso
*$400,000 Scott Elbert
Total: $6,955,000
Also on 40-man roster
Mario Alvarez
Yhency Brazoban
Greg Miller
Justin Orenduff
Starting Lineup (8)
$17,100,000 Andruw Jones
*$3,000,000 Russell Martin
*$2,500,000 Andre Ethier
*$600,000 Matt Kemp
*$600,000 James Loney
*$500,000 Angel Berroa
*$410,000 Blake DeWitt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
Total: $25,110,000
Bench (5)
$10,000,000 Juan Pierre
*$600,000 Jason Repko
*$410,000 Delwyn Young
*$400,000 Danny Ardoin
*$400,000 Chin-Lung Hu
Total: $11,810,000
Note: Team can buy out Ozuna's 2009 option for $200,000
Also on 40-man roster
A.J. Ellis
Lucas May
Xavier Paul
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
Also Paying ...
$2,000,000 Brad Penny (buyout of $9,000,000 option)
$50,000 Gary Bennett (buyout of $900,000 option)
Note: Kansas City is responsible for $500,000 buyout of Angel Berroa's $5,500,000 option for 2009.
Working total: *$68,020,000
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9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
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Baseball Toaster runs on some experimental software called Fairpole. It's still under development.
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From Jon Heyman of SI.com:
The Tigers were right to ignore baseball's ridiculously arbitrary slotting system, whereby teams use a player's draft position as the guideline for what his signing bonus should be. By ignoring it, Detroit was able to sign the better prospects and put them in a position to make this trade. The Yankees also have wisely ignored MLB's bonus recommendations. And now the Mets' Minaya told Baseball America and Newsday they may have to rethink their resolve to stick to the system. Being what Minaya called "good citizens," has cost them big time.
Previously on Dodger Thoughts: one of a few stories I wrote about a sore subject I kind of decided I shouldn't bring up again.
* * *
Jeff Kent tendered his non-resignation, Diamond Leung of the Press-Enterprise reports. Thanks to commenter Eric Stephen for spotting it before I went to bed.
http://tinyurl.com/2wg2ru
We want Blair!
Padres signed Tadahito Iguchi...1 year / ~$4m
http://tinyurl.com/2tdy3t
Rockies extended Aaron Cook.
2008 (age 29) - added $2,5m bonus to existing $4.5m salary
2009 - $8.75m
2010 - $9m
2011 - $9.25m
2012 - $11m mutual option ($500k buyout)
He's battled injuries, but has put up some good, albeit possibly misleading numbers:
2004 - 115 ERA+, 3.72 K/9
2005 - 130 ERA+, 2.59 K/9
2006 - 116 ERA+, 3.89 K/9
2007 - 116 ERA+, 3.31 K/9
I posted it in the last thread and thought for sure when I clicked on the new post Kent would be the topic. I was trying to figure out how "Slot Rot" fit the topic! :)
re: arcade fire... i never got why people are so into this band. seriously, what's the big deal?
"Each school was provided 12,000 tickets to distribute to its fans. BYU sold its entire share in just under two days, but UCLA gave BYU several thousand tickets from its allotment to sell to BYU fans, according to BYU associate athletic director Duff Tittle."
What do you guys think of Ire
Works?
I haven't heard it yet but its on my to do list!
UCLA fans are to football tickets as a hungry Esau was to his birthright.
It is a mix of Miss Machine and totally new more melodic stuff. Of course, they had to be quite different with only one guitarist. A lot more use of electronics.
His FIP ERA the last 4 years have been reasonably good:
2004 - 4.33 (D.Lowe 4.33, for comparison)
2005 - 4.23 (Lowe 4.10)
2006 - 4.11 (Lowe 3.72)
2007 - 4.50 (Lowe 3.97)
I'm going to frame my monitor.
Neon Bible is one I'm having a hard time getting into, so it's possible they were more of a one-album wonder, but the critics seem to like it so maybe there's hope yet.
147 IP, 187 H, 17 HR, 29 BB, 139 K
I love how if they take Pierre's contract that means we have to throw Broxton as a sweetner.
http://tinyurl.com/22f3my
Offense
Andruw - $14.1m (includes $9m salary & $5.1 singing bonus)
Furcal - $13m
Kent - $9m
Nomar - $8.5m
Pierre - $8m
Total Offense - $52.6m
Pitching
Schmidt - $15.5m (includes $15m salary & $500k bonus)
Lowe - $10m
Penny - $9.5m
Loaiza - $7m
Total Pitching - $42m
Dead Weight
Tomko - $1m (buyout of 2008 option)
Odalis - $750k (split buyout of 2008 option 50/50 with KC)
Mueller - $750k (signing bonus due 1/15/08)
Wolf - $500k (buyout of 2008 option)
Lieberthal - $100k (buyout of 2008 option)
Lucille II - $50k (buyout of 2008 option)
Total Dead Weight - $3.15m
Total 2008 Committed Salary - $97.75m
My total is $350k off of Gurnick's number, and the only place I can think it comes from is that Kent had some performance escalators in his contract. However, the Kent returning stories mention his salary for 2008 being only $9m, so I'm confused.
Duff Tittle?
That'll run at least $10 million there
http://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/865947.html
It seems inconsistent.
I understand all that. But, at this very moment the only committed salary is for the players listed in 28 . The following players are all under team control in 2008, and will make in the $400k range (the minimum is $390k):
Martin
Loney
Kemp
LaRoche
Ethier
Abreu
Young (out of options)
Billingsley
Broxton
Meloan (may be a starter in AAA)
Kuo (out of options)
That's 8-11 players making a total of $3.2 - $4.5m
Technically Saito is also under team control, but he's likely to get a lucrative deal, in upwards of $2m, not to mention possibly a multi-year deal (with maybe a Kuroda recruitment bonus?)
We will find out tomorrow who gets offered arbitration, of the following players:
Beimel - a lock to come back, made $912,500 in 2007 (5+ yrs service time) - likely ~$1.5m in 2008
Proctor - a lock to come back, 1st-year arb-eligible (3 yrs service time) - likely ~$1m in 2008
Hendrickson - a definite maybe, made $2.925m (5+ yrs service time) - likely ~$3.5-4m in 2008
Repko - a maybe, 1st-year arb-eligible (3 yrs service time) - likely ~$600k in 2008
Brazoban - a maybe, 1st-year arb-eligible (3 yrs service time) - likely ~$750k in 2008
http://tinyurl.com/3bblkb
Seanez made $1.1m total in 2007 ($700k base + $400k for reaching games played incentives)
No. Way. There's just no way.
I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole, but it wouldn't shock me if he was offered arbitration (highly unlikely if the Kuroda deal is basically done)
http://tinyurl.com/ysxg5r
"multiple reports out of Japan said that Kuroda will settle instead with the Dodgers for the next three seasons."
Kuroda Picks Dodgers Over Mariners
http://tinyurl.com/ysxg5r
given it's a tiny sample but nothing that get's me excited....either way it's good because the youngsters stay!
Now Pierre to Texachicagmore and I'm in a state of Dodger elation...
If not, we use Stults/Houlton for long relief, then bring up McDonald once Loaiza implodes.
And here we are, a few weeks from New Year's and so far, no bad moves, let alone stupid bad moves.
And still, I feel like the other shoe is about to drop.
This also seems to confirm Jon's article about the stupidity of the Dodgers to not spend money on prospects. Even if Kyle Blair never pitches for us in the ML, barring injuries or a complete collapse, he would be a valuable trading chip in a couple of years. That alone is worth 1 mil. And we just wasted 30 mil on a pitcher will less promise than Blair.
That certainly looks like the plan. We'll also find out tomorrow if the "Hendrickson role" could be filled by, well, Hendrickson. :)
44
I agree 100%.
For me, the Kuroda signing is more a relief in that it means we add pitcher without giving up Kemp or Ethier. I'd rate Kuroda as a better pitcher than Silva or Lohse, although not appreciably so. A 3-year deal seems reasonable.
A Lieber deal seems risky because of his injury history, even for one year. That doesn't seem what the Dodgers need. Livan is an innings eater to be sure (8 straight years and 9 out of 10 with 200+ IP, the other year 199.2 IP) but his quality is certainly declining and would he only want a 1-year deal?
That's a pretty hefty statement. The last decade has seen some really great albums. To name a few:
Neutral Milk Hotel -In the Aeroplane Over the Sea
The Flaming Lips- The Soft Bulletin
Radiohead- OK Computer
The Beta Band -The Three EPs
Built to Spill-Perfect from Now On
Godspeed You Black Emperor!-F# A# Infinity
Sigur Rós -Ágætis Byrjun
Broken Social Scene - Your Forgot It In People
Just a few off the top of my head...guess I'm not as into Neon Bible as much...
1. The White Stripes - De Stijl
2. Badly Drawn Boy - The Hour of Bewilderbeast
3. The Libertines - Up the Bracket
4. The Strokes - Is This It?
5. The Arcade Fire - Funeral
Could be a great day in LA...
30 I was wondering if someone would pick up on that.
The shovels are always within reach, right behind the torches and pitchforks.
The last thing this team needed was another costly PVL 4th starter. And 3 years is a significant committment to medocrity.
Why would you ever committ 3 years to a 4th starter?
http://www.japanball.com/news.phtml?id=11334
Kuroda will never has his surname pronounced correctly by people in L.A.
Unless they are Japanese natives.
The subject vexes me, which is why I'm trying to put it out of mind. It's sort of like a Pierre thing for me - I don't really have anything new to say, but each time I'm reminded of it, I get bitter.
Are the Dodgers really improved by having this guy on the roster for 3 years?
Judging from his previous years in Japan, he's also not used to the innings workload that he'd face in the US.
In terms of asset allocation, this seems more like a "depth/pvl" signing in stead of talent. The Dodgers need talent, not depth.
Reading this made me glad that I was finally able to use my graduate education. God knows I paid enough for it.
I'm not really worried about the money per se, though it might be a waste. But if this guy is Dice-K Lite, does he really help? And does this not perhaps increase the possibility that the Dodgers could trade away a more talented pitching prospect, since they can afford to now?
On the other hand, as Jon points out, maybe this makes Ned feel like he can "afford" to trade Kershaw or some other young pitcher with a higher ceiling than Kuroda's.
I think Kuroda is flying to L.A. in part because there are more flights from Narita to LAX than Narita to Sea-Tac.
And I don't think you can fly Narita to San Diego nonstop.
Plenty of Narita to SFO flights though.
Meanwhile, Kemp gets more national awareness that he is a trouble maker even if he isn't. If as a result his trade value goes down, good. Maybe the Dodgers will have to keep him.
If word gets out that Kemp is troublemaker, I'm sure the Dodgers would get a call from the Nationals.
Eastern
Prediction time!
LuGo
Clemens
Andruw (sorry)
Neifi Perez (can't...stop...laughing)
Barry Bonds
Jason Giambi
Gary Sheffield
Jose Canseco
Rafael Palmeiro
Jason Grimsley
Jay Gibbons
Jose Guillen
Guillermo Mota
Ken Caminiti
Guesses
Jose Valentin
Luis Gonzalez
Sammy Sosa
Gary Matthews Jr
Would make me laugh
Juan Pierre
David Eckstein
Scott Podsednik
Doug Mientkiewicz
All Boras clients
Would make me laugh
Juan Pierre
David Eckstein
Scott Podsednik
Doug Mientkiewicz
That reminds me of the time Wilton Guerrero was busted with a corked bat. I mean, what's the point?
vr, Xei
And while our rotation is better off in depth than most, it's not as if it has no problems--I would be shocked if any of the kids make the team out of ST, and out of Loaiza, Kuo, and Schmidt, maybe one will make the rotation. That still leaves open one slot. Would you rather have Kuroda, or Houlton/Stults? And what if Lowe, Penny, or Bills goes down with injury? Pitching depth is important, and much of our depth is still in AA ball--Kershaw might be ready at mid-season, but he walks too many people right now to pitch in the big leagues. Elbert is coming off injury, and McDonald hasn't pitched a full season in AA yet. One of the three might be ready this season, but I doubt they'll be ready in April.
WWSH