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Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 39-30 (.565)
When Jon attended: 5-3 (.625)
When Jon didn't: 34-27 (.557)
Dodgers at home: 745-600 (.554)
Jon attended: 293-233 (.557)*
Jon didn't: 457-374 (.550)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2008 Salaries
(updated March 28)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$10,000,000 Derek Lowe
$9,500,000 Brad Penny
$7,000,000 Esteban Loaiza
*$500,000 Chad Billingsley
Total: $39,300,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$1,125,000 Scott Proctor
*$500,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 Chan Ho Park
*$400,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $6,450,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$13,000,000 Rafael Furcal
$9,000,000 Jeff Kent
$8,500,000 Nomar Garciaparra
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Russell Martin
*$400,000 James Loney
*$400,000 Matt Kemp
Total: $53,900,000
Bench (6)
$875,000 Gary Bennett
$600,000 Mark Sweeney
$424,500 Andre Ethier
$391,000 Delwyn Young
$390,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$390,000 Blake DeWitt
Total: $3,071,000
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
*$390,000 Andy LaRoche
Total: $12,790,000
Also Paying ...
$1,000,000 Brett Tomko
$750,000 Odalis Perez
$540,000 Yhency Brazoban
$500,000 Randy Wolf
$487,500 Jason Repko
$135,225 Rudy Seanez
$100,000 Mike Lieberthal
$50,000 Ramon Martinez
Total: $3,562,725
Working total: *$113,268,725
*Rough salary estimate
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About four years ago, my toddler daughter and pregnant wife went on a trip to Jamaica, where relatives had rented a house for a week. Nervous about the trip, I bought for the first time in my life one of those insurance policies at the airport, just before the plane took off. Whether it was sensible or not, it eased some anxiety.
Is that what Hiroki Kuroda is? Insurance?
Kuroda has a career ERA in Japan of 3.69 and strikes out between six and seven batters per nine innings, while walking very few. He averages about seven innings a start, though he has never had to make more than 30 starts a year.
And he might be about to get a big three-year contract from the Dodgers.
This news has been greeted with two types of reactions, the first and perhaps most important being that regardless of how well Kuroda performs, his presence now will forestall any potentially damaging offseason trades by Dodger general manager Ned Colletti. While you can't rule out the notion that Kuroda could make a younger pitching prospect or two expendable (particularly if combined with an outfielder), what exactly would Colletti be trading for?
If you can believe him, Colletti has already said that the addition of Andruw Jones to the lineup made him comfortable with the current Nomar Garciaparra/Andy LaRoche situation at third base. An acquisition of Erik Bedard from Baltimore would force both Jason Schmidt and Esteban Loaiza out of the rotation.
That leaves the bullpen. Colletti has overpaid for relief in the past, but that's been with players he grew fatigued of, like Joel Guzman and Edwin Jackson. No such fatigue exists for Clayton Kershaw, James McDonald or even Scott Elbert at this time.
So at a minimum, a Kuroda signing could be a down payment protecting the farm system for perhaps the entire 2008 season, assuming no catastrophes befall the starting lineup. It'd be a rather extravagant down payment, considering that annual salary of Kuroda and Jones probably match up to Alex Rodriguez's.
Beyond that, whether Kuroda will himself contribute to the 2008 cause remains uncertain. Despite Takashi Saito defying all naysayers to become true genius on American shores, there are multiple examples of pitchers who flounder when crossing over from Japan. Kuroda is not Hideo Nomo; he is not Daisuke Matsuzaka. Kuroda turns 33 in February with a declining strikeout rate. The absolute best-case scenario, short of the still-unexplained miracle of Saito, might be for him to become Derek Lowe – someone who succeeds as long as hitters don't hit the ball through one hole after another.
"Kuroda a very strong power pitcher with a low to mid-90s fastball and a wicked forkball," Mike Plugh of Baseball Prospectus wrote last month. (Thanks to Dodger Thoughts commenter MikeB for the link.) "In addition, he features a plus shuuto, something like a screwball, as well as an effective change. Even if he only pans out as a third or fourth starter in the majors, he will give you innings, work deep into games, and he should be fairly consistent start to start."
Grimmer scenarios would have him batted around like any number of Dodger punching bags from the past few years. When your non-miracle upside is middle-of-the-road starter, that doesn't leave a lot of margin for error.
However, I don't think it's entirely unrealistic for Kuroda to fool hitters his first time through the league, and that by the time hitters catch on to him, Kershaw, McDonald or Elbert are ready to step in. Of course, then you have the issue of benching a man with an eight-figure contract again, but I guess we'd just have to cross that bridge when we come to it.
I'm neither down nor up on this signing. I once again use my Dodger Thoughts-given right to just not be sure.
The only thing that's for sure is that nothing is for sure.
-- Macho Man Randy Savage
Snap into a SLIM JIM. YEEEEEAAH!
-- same guy
I remember reading within the past few years or so that Elizabeth died.
Since "Big Game James" is already taken, I wouldn't mind a nickname of "Slim Jim" for James Loney, if only to be able to shout "Snap into it!!!" every time Loney does something well.
However, that could change if Kuroda completely bombs and / or we lose one of our top 3 starters to injury.
http://tinyurl.com/2am6gl
Redundant?
Saito
Broxton
Beimel
Proctor
After that, you've got options with Kuo, Meloan (swing man?), and Brazoban to fill out the rest.
If anything, Ned would trade for a starter, trying to upgrade the Schmidt/Loaiza spots, which of course is where the fear comes in, as dealing Kemp is required to get a starter of any quality, as trading Ethier wouldn't be enough.
Signing Kuroda lessens the need for a starter, and pushes Loaiza into the swingman role in the pen. If the Dodgers tender a contract by 9pm tonight to Hendrickson, I'd guess Kuroda will not be coming to Chavez Ravine in home whites.
Slim Jims are great slathered in ketchup and mayo, accompanied by a bottle of Charles Shaw. :)
I can't add much to what Jon wrote above or what I wrote before regarding Kuroda. But if it happens, color me cautiously optimistic, with a slight smile on my face.
Houlton & Stults can provide the same production as Hendy for minimum wage. I just refuse to believe he'll be a Dodger tomorrow.
1. D.Lowe
2. C.Billingsley
3. E.Loaiza
4. Penny
5. Schmidt
6. Stults
7. Guo
8. Houlton
I used 2008 ZIPS projections for data entry, and this study does not take age/injury into account, only comparing current stats. The full study is at DodgerSims.
vr, Xei
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/Udk6
Since integration 1023 seasons were found when a pitcher had a K/rate greater then 6.1 and posted an ERA+ over 100.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/snje
LHP Troy Patton was the Astros' #3 rated prospect by Baseball America, and he had the most control of all the prospects according to BA. He was projected as the Astros #4 starter in 2011 (behind Oswalt, Matt Albers, & Felipe Paulino)
3B Mike Costanzo was #6, and best power hitter and best infield arm. He was slated by BA to be the Astros' starting 3B in 2011.
http://tinyurl.com/3x9u3o
I seem to remember Dennis Sarfate showing up in previous BA Prospect books, but they are at home and I can't look them up right now.
Not sure what your point is, but are there are more seasons where pitchers had K/9 rates less than 6 than seasons where pitchers had K/9 rates more than 6...?
The key is ERA+. There have been more seasons with ERA+ > 100 for control pitchers then for those who miss bats.
28 Interesting.
How did Igawa 2006 stats translate over?
It would seem the biggest worry here is that Igawa bombed and that Kuroda might do the same. Igawa like Ishi had huge control problems. I remember quite a big sentiment on DT that we should sign Igawa last winter. I could be wrong but I thought Nate really wanted us to sign him.
I think he was asking how many total seasons of each pitcher type there have been. i.e. is the first group 1798 out of 8000, and the second group 1023 out of 3500?
Yes, but in which type of season is ERA+ more likely to be over 100:
1. K/9 less than 6
2. K/9 more than 6
That's a different question from what you're (implicitly) answering.
Seasons with K/9<=6: 23,473
That is if TC didn't set a minimum.
My minimum was 162 innings pitched.
So, roughly 7.6% of seasons with K/9 6 do so.
Woah, that was weird. I typed an entire post, but only a small portion of it posted.
Do I understand correctly that your measure of "command" increases as the K/9 rate decreases? In other words, for you, pitchers who don't strike people out are "command" pitchers, and strikeout pitchers have less command?
K/9 of 6 or less
1789 of 2921, 61.2% with an ERA+ of 100 or more
K/9 of 6.1 or more
1023 of 1434, 71.3% with an ERA+ of 100 or more
=6.1: 1,495
Percentage wise:
=6.1: 68.4%
The other part was: less than 6: 5,825, or 30.8%
K/9 of 6 or less
650 of 2921, 22.3%
K/9 of 6.1 or more
581 of 1434, 40.5%
That said, I understand your point in 43 , TC.
Would their still be the "no bad trade" excitement if the Dodgers signed Jeff Weaver to a 3/36 contract instead?
47 Where'd you get those numbers from?
2004 Jeff Weaver? Sure. (I know, his 2005-2007 seasons have not been good)
At least the Shaw would burn my taste buds and make it all disappear, until I woke up in the middle of the night with the runs.
I used the play index on Baseball-Reference.com. Parameters were 1947 to 2007, 162 minimum IP, K/9 under 6 (and 6.1+)
>>Dodgers signed outfielder Andruw Jones, who had been with the Braves, to a two-year, $36.2 million contract.
The extra $200,000 Jones is earning just so that he can say he makes more than Torii Hunter reportedly will be donated to a Dodgers' charity. Jones figures hit to hit fourth or fifth in a Dodgers' lineup that will still include Juan Pierre. Once again, it looks like the better hitters might be found at the bottom of the order. James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andy LaRoche, if he wins a job, could bat sixth, seventh and eighth, respectively.<<
How many teams at the end of the year are saying "We were just a #4 starter away from being in the playoffs"?
I think these moves are job security for Ned. If he stacks the roster with players that have higher floors (Kuroda, Loaiza), than some of the high risk youngsters that could flame out---he'll always be insured of winning around 80-85 games and keeping his job. However, that still doesnt make the Dodgers any better. It may prevent them from being a bad team, but it does nothing to make them a good team--which is the goal right?
Is "Kuroda" Japanese for Kevin Tapani?
I think it's more likely Loney or Kemp will bat 3rd, with Martin 6th. Assuming of course, JP is #2.
No, I would never suggest such a thing. I'm sure that only pitchers with excellent command,huge GB tendancies, or fly ball tendancies in pitching parks can get away with it.
I didn't even mean to suggest that Kuroda is such a pitcher.
I only ran the numbers because I became curious from the previous thread when Jon said what he said about K rates and successful pitchers.
In 1953, the league K/9 was 4.35. This year it was 6.16. Notice that most of the names that come up are from before 1970.
The 2007 Dodgers?
I'm half-serious, half-kidding.
How can depth be overrated when you look at the rotations that were in place in Sept throughout baseball compared to what they started with in April?
What is the K/9 rate in Japan compared to the US?
K/9 of 6 or less
385 of 701, 54.9% with an ERA+ of 100 or more
K/9 of 6.1 or more
548 of 712, 77.0% with an ERA+ of 100 or more
WWSH
I was going to say, "wait, but he's under 30", but in fact Rowand turned 30 on Aug 29.
They could have had Pierre for 4!
Knowing very little about the guy, I'm mildly in favor of the trade.
If nothing else this deal: (a) provides insurance and hopefully quality innings; (b) allows Schmidt to face mediocre pitchers as the #5; (c)helps create a lucrative "pipeline" of baseball talent from Japan and merchandise/fan interest back to Japan.
As we've seen recently from the Red Sox and Yankees, creating revenue streams is becoming extremely important. :)
http://www.mercurynews.com/othersports/ci_7702423?
Let the Andruw-Aaron showdowns begin!
More info/confirmation here:
http://tinyurl.com/3d58fy
LF Roberts
RF Winn
CF Rowand
2B Durham
1B Aurillia
C Molina
SS Vizquel
3B No idea, Fransden? Denker?
That could be worse than the 2003 Dodgers.
70 No idea.
The Giants were lucky last year when they missed out on Gary Matthews Jr. and Juan Pierre despite competitive offers. Still, no one really expected Brian Sabean to learn his lesson, did they?
And yet, Sabean got a contract extension.
Mind-boggling.
Nate She4tiueholtz is pretty good.
Given that everyone's rotation is out of kilter after the 1st week, it is doubtful that Schmidt will face weaker pitchers because he's slotted as our number 5. By the time a playoff series arrives if he's still our number 5 he won't even be pitching.
73
Ha Ha, this year the Giants got the guy we least wanted to see in a Dodger uniform.
Thank You A Jones for taking a two year deal.
Oh, and the video for your namesake is one of my favorites.
The Red Sox didn't get much of an impact thus far in signing Dice-K.
http://tinyurl.com/33cxz9
But playoff series are so often characterized by dominant individual performances. There's no denying that a singularly excellent pitcher like Johan Santana or Josh Beckett pays tremendous dividens in the post-season.
But we're the Dodgers, and I have no problem taking baby steps.
As far as the regular season is concerned, I believe this deal solidifies our hold on a very good NL-West division next year.
I would have, but I always wanted to re-sign Wolf.
And Aaron Rowand proves once again that for most athletes it is all about the benjamins. I hope he enjoys playing CF for the worse team in baseball for the next 5 years.