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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
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4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
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7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
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Pending the negotiation of a long-term contract, the New York Mets have acquired Minnesota Twins ace Johan Santana in what many analysts have decided is a steal, a heist, a grift, a shell game in a darkened subway station.
So, some might be asking, why aren't the Dodgers in on this job? Here are three reasons for starters:
1) Dodger general manager Ned Colletti did not participate in trade talks with Minnesota for the past several days, according to Bill Shaikin of the Times.
2) There is no indication that Santana would have been willing to sign a long-term contract with a West Coast team.
3) Though I don't think it's out of the question that the current Dodger leadership would ever offer a player a contract of the caliber Santana appears to be demanding – $140 million or more for six or seven years – it doesn't seem likely.
Now, those aren't insurmountable issues. Had they been surmounted, it's clear that the Dodgers had the players to match what the Mets offered the Twins. Having read various sources, I've come to the conclusion that not one player in the prospect package New York is sending Minnesota is of the caliber of Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw or Andy LaRoche, three Dodgers whose names were bandied as much as anyone's.
From Jim Callis at Baseball America:
Minnesota might be better off if (trade) talks collapse, giving new Twins GM Bill Smith a chance to find a better return for Santana. While he's going to command possibly the richest contract ever given to a pitcher, Santana is the best pitcher in the game. And Smith didn't get enough for him.
Guerra (No. 2), Gomez (No. 3), Mulvey (No. 4) and Humber (No. 7) all ranked prominently on our Mets Top 10 Prospects list. But there's simply too much risk involved in this deal for Minnesota.
The two best prospects in the trade, Guerra and Gomez, come with high ceilings but also lack a lot of polish and have a long ways to go to reach their potential. The odds that they both will do so are slim. …They didn't get a prospect whose combination of ceiling and certainty approaches that of Hughes, whom the Yankees were willing to deal for Santana earlier in the winter. They didn't get a package comparable to the ones the Red Sox reportedly offered earlier, fronted by either Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester and also containing two solid prospects nearly ready for the majors: righty Justin Masterson and shortstop Jed Lowrie. …
As it was, Minnesota's return doesn't compare favorably to the six-player package the Athletics extracted from the Diamondbacks for Dan Haren. The A's also got two quality arms from the White Sox for Nick Swisher.
Opines analyst John Sickels at Minor League Ball: "The Twins didn't get a sure-fire potential superstar here. Guerra might turn into a stud, but it's far from a sure thing. Mulvey and Humber should be useful pitchers, especially Mulvey, and Gomez should be OK but I don't buy into him as a star at this point."
In a sense, the price for Santana fell like the price of the nicest house on the block. It's still a great house, and it's still expensive, but it's not quite as unfathomably expensive as it was.
Should Colletti have jumped back in the talks? Well, I wouldn't have minded him being in the conversation at least. It wouldn't have been a one-year rental of Santana, because either a long-term contract would be negotiated, or the deal would fall through. It would be the most expensive pitcher contract in major league history, a daunting contract invested in someone playing the most fragile position in the sport, but I don't think it would have been an albatross. Allocating 15 percent of the payroll to a superstar is not an inherent mistake. I would do it for Santana; I would have done more for Alex Rodriguez.
You can almost guarantee that Santana will be hurt during a portion of the contract, but during the times he is healthy, he will vie to be the best pitcher in the National League. Would anyone have minded having the age 29-35 seasons of the less valuable Jason Schmidt, injuries and all?
But I am hardly going to lose sleep over Santana ending up elsewhere. The Dodgers still have one of the top pitching staffs in the league. Behind a front four of Chad Billingsley, Derek Lowe, Hiroki Kuroda and Brad Penny are Jason Schmidt, Esteban Loaiza, Hong-Chih Kuo, James McDonald, Clayton Kershaw and Jonathan Meloan. As I pointed out in several columns earlier this year, every major league staff has vulnerabilities; the Dodger staff has fewer weaknesses than most. There could be some rough starts as the Dodgers figure out who's healthy and who's effective, but it's not as if Santana is going to pitch 33 shutouts either. As ToyCannon at True Blue L.A. writes, the Mets needed Santana much more than the Dodgers did.
There is something to be said for acquiring Santana just so that he's not a guy you have to face. In a tight race, Santana can be a difference maker. But the combination of prospects and salary that the Dodgers are retaining can also be a difference maker. I'm not sure that point has been emphasized enough.
I like Santana, just as I liked A-Rod, just as I like this core group the Dodgers are developing. We can thank the development of the farm system for the fact that the Johan Santana Deal or No Deal was not a make-or-break moment for the Dodgers.
* * *
Update: David Pinto of Baseball Musings passes along this account of how the trade went down, from Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record:
This was late Monday night, about 12 hours before the Mets would pounce upon their most dramatic trade in recent history. Twins' general manager Bill Smith, in a panic to move Johan Santana, called the Yankees and admitted surrender: Phil Hughes was no longer a prerequisite, he said. Instead, the Twins asked for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and a top prospect. Would the Yankees still be interested, Smith wondered?
The Yankees considered the idea, but only briefly and not seriously. Their passion for Santana started waning as far back as December, when Andy Pettitte announced he was returning to the Bronx. The Yankees' internal straw vote was unanimous: The Twins had waited too long. On Tuesday Yankees' GM Brian Cashman told Smith he was passing on the deal, prompting the Twins to call the Red Sox. Equally devastating news awaited. Both Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester were unavailable.
The Red Sox, in lock step with the Yankees, had essentially backed out, too.
That left the Mets, who after hearing from Smith didn't allow themselves to be bluffed. GM Omar Minaya held firm, insisting the Twins would have to live without Fernando Martinez. As a result - and thanks to the Twins' grim realization that they were without options - the Mets made off with a heist of mammoth proportions. They inherit the major league's best left-handed pitcher, one who's a lock to dominate National League hitters, without giving up a can't-miss prospect.
http://tinyurl.com/37nm6e
http://tinyurl.com/2wz7jt
It would be wise for you to not ask too many questions. All-seeing eyes are watching.
I think you would've lost sleep if SD, or COL emptied the farm system to get him.
http://tinyurl.com/2bmqlp
"...so if Schmidt isn't ready to answer the bell -- a good bet, if you read between the lines of statements from club officials..."
I guess I missed it. What statements is he talking about?
When we start talking Kemp and Kershaw for Johan is when we start having pause.
The Dodgers stood to benefit less from acquiring Santana than almost every other NL team.
The team with the most superstars does not automatically win the pennant.
It takes a balanced team: young studs, "marquee" players and dare I even say PVL to win a pennant.
In this deal and the Miggy deal, it seesm that it was less about the quality of the prospects than the fact that they were getting the best the system the Marlins/Twins were trading with had to offer.
The reason we did not win out (or the Red Sox/Yanks)could be because we refused to include the quantity of our best. The Mets gave up 4 of their top ten prospects in a deal. Since many in the media still define Bills/Kemp/Ethier/Loney as prospects, the price would have been absurd.
Now if we had talked about a package lead by Kershaw or LaRoche (Similar to what the Sox did with Elsbury and Lester) and they got to pick from a pool that included DeWitt, Meloan, etc. that may have been reasonable.
I think that it looks better to the casual observer to get the 40% of the Mets elite minor league talent than "settling" for only Phil Hughes/Ellsbury/Kershaw and some B- type prospects.
http://www.truebluela.com/story/2008/1/30/13287/8853
The Mets proved last year that they are oh-so-close but have an imperfect team. Their biggest short-term need is starting pitching. Santana gives them that.
Longer term, they have other needs that they'll need to address, but with this move, they complete their movement to get rid of all their works in progress (except F Martinez). When those needs come up, the Mets will not have any in-house answers. They will be looking at free agents, who are expensive, or replacement talent.
The thing is, it's still the right move for the Mets, because the price is low enough, and the Mets are close enough to a championship, and if the Mets win the World Series in '08 and then injuries take their toll and the Mets find themselves stuck in third place for five years, it will still have been worth it. Flags fly forever.
The Dodgers are different. The Dodgers' core is so young that by taking its time the team increases its chances for a championship in the future, even if it means that the chances of winning in 08 go down a bit.
Though, to be fair, the cost of Santana would be greatly reduced by the fact that Nomar/Kent/Lowe/Loaiza/Furcal come off the books to the tune of about $50 million next year which would leave us about $30 million or so to deal with the loss of a good shortstop and one back-end starter and some back-up help in the infield.
(2) Which, in your opinion, is greater:
1 year of Santana + 2 draft picks
OR
the four prospects they got?
I think I'd have called Johans bluff and kept him, then see what happens come July when he's pitching for a lousy team and the big boys need pitching. If that didn't happen then I'd just keep him and do the 2 draft picks. Basically what Kristina just said over at BP. No original thought here.
Because most of our debates are productive in some manner?
I don't like a debate about water under the bridge when there is a wall of water still coming down the river.
And the Academy doesn't like me.
http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/team/transactions.jsp?c_id=la
"No Country for Old Bob" -- extra-bleak interpretation of the novel, in which an assassin named Toomuch Sugar comes to the L.A. library.
"There Will Be Bob" -- extra-bleak interpretation of Upton Sinclair novel, in which a librarian starts his own lending firm, much to the chagrin of the good citizens of Los Angeles. Features the quotable line, "If I weren't lactose intolerant, I would have drunk your milkshake. I would have drunk it up."
"Robert Timmermann" -- when the chief librarian gets into hot water, he needs his "fixer" to find the reference that will save him from jail.
"Bob" -- The first male pregnancy.
"Atonnemennt" -- Period romannce about a mann determinned to stick superfluous Ns where they arenn't nneeded.
A great DT moment.
But I'm not lactose intolerant.
I'm also not sure I have the right word there. Is it "drunk" or "drank?"
54 There was some artistic license.
I think DJ deserves a chance to pitch full time--best of luck to him.
The dealing over Haren,Bedard and Santana have made me think a lot about pitching and the apparent shortage of good starters. My feelings about the costs and uncertainty of long term contracts for pitchers limits the way to obtain them to: 1) develop your own 2) trade for pitchers under control for a few years 3) Find veterans willing to take a short contract( Maddox,good; Wolf, not so good). Is this enough?
Houlton would probably pitch pretty well in Japan if he can make the cultural adjustment. He throws a lot harder than most Japanese pitchers.
I am sure you could selectively pick good and bad deals and ask if the teams are happier or sadder in hindsight.
As I look at this off season, I am more and more convinced of two things:
1. The Dodgers are planning to use their system to supplement their team first rather than use them as chips to make deals. This especially is true with the players on the MLB roster and their closest to the big leagues players (LaRoche, Abreu, Hu, Kershaw).
2. The gap between their ready for the big league talent and their second group of players was too great in the eyes of other major league teams, so that they could not use them to make equitable deals.
What I mean is that, teams were going to ask for the top players from the Dodgers and once that got rebuffed, there were either injury questions, talent questions, position shortages and age issues that made it hard to close the deal.
A year ago, Scott Elbert was probably a name that every team asked about but now they are waiting to see how he looks in ST. Bryan Morris could have been a very valuable piece if he had a good second year but he had TJ surgery. James McDonald, great year but is it just a one time thing. Meloan, is he a closer or a starter? DeWitt, where can he play in the field and does he have enough power? Josh Bell, still a little raw and young.
And the Dodgers 2007 draft picks and free agent signees are still a few months away from being eligible to be dealt.
I do think that the time will come when the Dodgers will become more active with either dealing some of their youth for MLB roster help or filling gaps in their system. But for now, I think the Dodgers enter 2008 with a MLB roster that can compete and a minor league system with lots of things to examine once April rolls around.
Lugo-- I found it hilarious that one of the screen shots for the new MLB2K8 game is of Julio Lugo. All the other shots are of Papelbon, Peavy, Manny, etc, and then there is Julio Lugo
Clayton Kershaw and Juan Pierre for Johan Santana.
I'm sorry, I just can't get that out of my head and I wanted to share.
I assume you are a season ticket holder and were able to purchase your 16 ticket allotment. vr, Xei
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