In the years that I've been doing Dodger Thoughts Spring Training Primers, this might be the most set roster I've encountered. I count only four open roster spots, except in the event of injury or trade. That doesn't leave room for too many surprises - though probably one will come.

With boarding calls for Vero Beach approaching, here's how things look.

Locks (21)
Only the disabled list or a trade can stop these guys from making the Opening Day roster:

Starting Pitchers: Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Jason Schmidt*

Swingman: Esteban Loaiza

Bullpen: Takashi Saito, Jonathan Broxton, Joe Beimel, Scott Proctor, Rudy Seanez

Catchers: Russell Martin, Gary Bennett

Infielders: James Loney, Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra

Outfielders: Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Juan Pierre, Andre Ethier

*Jason Schmidt, RHP: Just checking to make sure you read the definition of "Lock" above. It's not that he's a lock to be healthy, it's that he's a lock to be on the Opening Day roster if he's healthy.

Most Likely to Succeed (4)
Andy LaRoche, 3B: It became fairly clear in January that even the Dodgers want LaRoche to win the starting job at third base. This flies against the team's recent tendency to deny promising rookies starting positions before May, but the upside of LaRoche starting is too much for the team to ignore. Not only would it give the Dodgers an extra on-base and power bat, but it would allow them to pace Garciaparra and take advantage of his theoretical clutch bat in the late innings. Even if LaRoche doesn't win the starting job outright, another scenario has Garciaparra and LaRoche splitting time at the position in April. Certainly, the Dodgers could decide they'd rather have LaRoche play full-time in Las Vegas for a month, but short of him kidnapping Vero Beach puppies or being detained at Beijing customs, he seems ready for his promotion.

Delwyn Young, OF-2B: Nothing does a young Dodger more good than to do well in small opportunities. Late last season, Young hit above his head with a .417 on-base percentage/.647 slugging percentage in 36 plate appearances last season. Out of minor-league options, Young should easily qualify for a spot off the bench as a pinch-hitter, fifth outfielder and emergency second baseman.

Tony Abreu, IF: There seem to be few hard feelings remaning over last season's Sports Hernia Kerfuffle, and given that the Dodgers were prepared to go without Ramon Martinez in 2008 by buying out his option, I still like Abreu's chances of getting the job as middle-infield backup. A poor spring by LaRoche would also keep Abreu in line to get some time at third base. Sure, now that Martinez is back in the organization on a minor-league contract, the Dodgers could start Abreu in Las Vegas - and there are some who would rather see him play full-time anyway. But it just seems clear that the Dodgers know Abreu is superior to Martinez at this point, and the determination to win the division in 2008 should encourage the Dodgers to get what they can out of Abreu from the beginning of the season.

Hong-Chih Kuo, LHP: I think the Dodgers are past the point of worrying whether Kuo would be better as a starting pitcher or a reliever. They're just wondering if he can stay healthy for consecutive months. Being out of options, Kuo should make the Opening Day roster if he's upright, especially if the team goes with 12 pitchers. As a left-hander, he even has a shot joining the otherwise all-righty Dodger starting rotation if Schmidt can't answer the bell. He'll stick as long as he's healthy and effective.

Next in Line
Jason Repko, OF: Even though he has a guaranteed contract, Repko is no lock to avoid the minors in April. And if the team goes with 12 pitchers, he's almost sure to continue his comeback from last season's muscle mishap in AAA. However, thanks to an April 3 off day. the Dodgers won't necessarily need a fifth starter until April 9. The season starts with a series against San Francisco, and carrying 12 pitchers against the anemic Giants offense and five bench players against its solid starting pitching really doesn't make sense. So I'm going to give him the inside track to sneak on as the 25th man if one of the pitchers above goes on the disabled list.

Yhency Brazoban, RHP: Brazoban is in the same boat as Repko: guaranteed contract with minor-league options. With the signing of Seanez, 10 righthanders are ahead of him; that's a lot, but the odds that one of them is on the disabled list on Opening Day aren't bad. The Dodgers could also choose Brazoban as a 12th pitcher over a healthy Kuo if they don't have faith in the latter as a reliever. But Brazoban is going to have to show something in Spring Training.

Mike Myers, LHP: He's 38, but Myers pitched 40 1/3 innings for Joe Torre in New York last season with a 2.66 ERA. Yet the Yankees cut him in August, and when he landed with the White Sox, he gave up 17 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. By season's end, the southpaw had allowed one home run in 123 plate appearances against lefties. So in an organization that is lefty-light, Myers could land a spot.

Eric Hull, RHP: No, he's not going to make the Hall of Fame, but the 28-year-old Hull has quietly positioned himself to be a 2008 contributor. I mean, if a 2.74 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings in Las Vegas, culminating years of steady progress, doesn't get you a long look, something's wrong.

Jonathan Meloan, RHP: Dodger fans in the know pleaded for his callup last summer. By the time he came up near season's end, after the long-winded Roberto Hernandez experiment, Meloan was entering a desperation situation. He struck out seven in 7 1/3 innings but walked eight and allowed nine runs. Now, the Dodgers have said they're going to try to make Meloan a starter, as he was in college. There's debate over whether he has the mechanics to hold a spot in a major-league rotation, but as far as April 2008 is concerned, the conversion seems to buy him a ticket to AAA. Still, the guy's a strikeout pitcher knocking on the door, and that surely makes him a strong candidate to make the team.

Greg Miller, LHP: There could hardly be a better story this spring than Miller making the team. A Clayton Kershaw before there was a Clayton Kershaw, Miller reached AA at age 18 in 2003, striking out 40 and walking seven in 27 innings. But first his health and then his control betrayed him, and four years later, he was struggling. He walked 89 in 76 2/3 innings in 2007. But he also struck out 97, and the Dodgers still like him. If he can show any control in March, he immediately puts himself back on the fast track.

See You Midseason?
Chin-Lung Hu, SS: His spectacular defense, combined with improvement offensively in 2007, put him in position to compete for a major-league job in April, but it would be a surprise if he didn't play full-time in the minors to start.

James McDonald, RHP: Is McDonald the fifth-best starting pitcher on the team right now? Quite possibly, after an eyecatching 2007 in which he struck out 168 in 134 2/3 innings in the minor leagues while walking a mere 37. The Dodgers aren't likely to rush him into the rotation during the first week, but it would take quite a reversal to keep him from making his first major-league start this season.

Clayton Kershaw, LHP: Never heard of him. Must be a scrub. But what the heck, if the Dodgers feel like he deserves a chance, who am I to stop them?

John-Ford Griffin, OF: Do you realize that players born in 1980 are about to hit the downside of their careers? Wow. Anyway, Griffin, who was born in November 1979, has gone 7 for 23 with two homers and three walks in two brief trials with Toronto, and OPSed .818 in AAA last season with 26 round-trippers. A left-handed swinger, it's not out of the question that the former Yankee first-round pick could ride the stagecoach to Los Angeles if Juan Pierre or Andre Ethier pulled a hammy.

Ramon Troncoso, RHP: Troncoso, 24, went from Inland Empire to Jacksonvile in 2007 and pitched well in both places. In fact, the reliever blew the Cal League away, allowing only three earned runs in 30 innings, before settling in nicely with a 3.12 ERA for the Suns. The 2007s of Meloan and Hull show how hard it can be to get a callup, but keep an eye on Troncoso nevertheless.

Cory Wade, RHP: Like Troncoso, Wade (25 in May) also rode the Inland Empire-to-Jacksonville express - and finished at full-speed with a 1.36 ERA and 33 strikeouts (against 11 walks) in 33 innings for the Suns.

Scott Elbert, LHP: Still only 22, Elbert is coming back from surgery. Wth a career minor-league ERA of 3.21 and 370 strikeouts in 321 innings, can I just dream of him returning to full strength?

Eric Stults, LHP: Well, he doesn't have D.J. Houlton to fend off any more, but with Kershaw, McDonald and maybe Elbert or Meloan on the rise, Stults (5.82 ERA, 30 strikeouts in 38 2/3 MLB innings last season) has a very small window left to make an impact in a Dodger uniform. In fact, it's quite possible Los Angeles won't get another look at the 28-year-old, even though Dodger general manager Ned Colletti has him in the running for a relief spot, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Times.

Angel Chavez, IF: There has been speculation that Chavez could be this year's Wilson Valdez (for better and for worse), but already there's a difference – Chavez is still only 26. (Hey, that's the age Ramon Martinez II was when he got his first sustained big-league action!) A veteran of both the Giant and Yankee organizations, Chavez had a .336 on-base percentage and .433 slugging percentage in AAA last season. Don't know his defensive value.

John Lindsey, 1B: Look, a guy hits 30 homers (and 32 doubles), I'm gonna take notice. Lindsey had a banner 2007 in the Dodger system, after planning to retire in 2006. I'd be more excited if a guy with that much power walked more than 35 times – it's hard to imagine he wouldn't struggle against tougher major-league stuff. But I'd love to see him get a shot.

Brian Falkenborg, RHP: Falky! Renwoned for his 14 1/3-inning stint with the Dodgers in 2004,Falkenborg returns after bouncing around San Diego, St. Louis, Portland and Memphis. He pitched well in AAA last season (3.25 ERA, 58 strikeouts/17 walks/two HR/52 2/3 innings), but the 29-year-old has to hope that he hasn't already peaked.

Matt Riley, LHP: Lefty alert! Lefty alert! It's like starting Dodger Monopoly with Park Place and Broadway, but even with the advantage of being a southpaw, the 28-year-old Riley will still need some friendly rolls of the dice to make the team. He hasn't pitched in the majors since giving up 14 runs in 12 2/3 innings for Texas at the start of 2005. He missed all of 2006, then began his recovery in Jacksonville in 2007 with a head-turning 29 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings and 1.47 ERA for the Suns. Battling control problems, Riley kept striking 'em out once promoted to Las Vegas but saw his ERA balloon. Still, his ability to strikeout lefties will allow him to audition to be Beimel's understudy.

Tom Martin, LHP: Familiarity might be in Martin's corner. He was part of the brilliant Dodger bullpen of '03, not to mention the National League champion Colorado Rockies in '07. But he hasn't been effective in quite some time - lefties OPSed .872 against him last year. Don't count him out, but don't count on him.

Check Back in a Year or Two
Justin Orenduff, RHP: While most folks rent, Orenduff could have bought in Jacksonville - he's been there since 2005. Arm surgery in 2006 explains part of the detour. Almost 25, Orenduff struck out 113 in 109 innings last season, so it's not too late for him to get back on track.

Mario Alvarez, RHP: Struck out 103 batters but allowed 171 baserunners in 107 2/3 innings in high-A ball last season, making 14 starts in 33 appearances. He turns 24 in March.

Xavier Paul, OF: For two years, Baseball America has said that Paul has the best outfield arm in the Dodger minor leagues. Does he have a bat to compliment it? A .795 OPS in AA at age 22 last season doesn't rule it out, though he has struck out 489 times in 518 career games.

Rick Asadoorian, RHP: Years ago, the now 27-year-old was considered something of a five-tool outfield prospect. But he never broke through, and took up pitching full-time last season in the Reds organization after a stellar emergency stint in 2006. So he's a project, albeit one that struck out 48 (but walked 28) in 52 2/3 innings in AA.

Lucas May, C: With five minor-league seasons under his belt, May isn't soaring through the system, but he is progressing to the point where you can see him earning a major-league paycheck someday. He had a .778 OPS for Inland Empire last year, including 25 homers and 25 doubles. Getting on base enough could be his downfall offensively.

Fernando Desgue, RHP: Struggling to find information on the 26-year-old, though it appears he had a 2.25 ERA for Oaxaca of the Mexican League in 2006 before slumping in 2007.

Fodder
Ramon Martinez, IF: His offensive emptiness got exposed in 2007, and his defense and veteranocity doesn't justify a spot on the roster. He got 10 years in the majors – really, that's enough to be proud of.

Mike Koplove, P: Koplove, 31, has thrown nine MLB innings since 2005. Any reliever can get on a hot streak, but it's hard to picture the righty being much of a factor.

Alfredo Simon, RHP: So many of the Dodger non-roster invitees are relievers, it's almost surprising when a starting pitcher pops up. Well, here's Simon – he turns 27 in May, and he made 22 starts in AAA for Oklahoma. Unfortunately, in 119 innings, he allowed 85 earned runs (6.43 ERA) and walked 46 while striking out 73. His career ERA in the minors is 5.03.

Greg Jones, RHP: A journeyman from the Angels system. He had a minor league season in 2005 that was notable, but he was 28 then and is 31 now.

Chan Ho Park, RHP: This year's Jose Lima/Scott Erickson/Aaron Sele/Joe Mays slot couldn't have gone to a more familiar face: the 34-year-old (man, I feel old – I can still remember his debut in '94) Park, who hit rock bottom last season. He pitched only four innings in the majors, while making 24 starts in the minors to the tune of a 5.97 ERA. Crazy thing is he still has a strikeout pitch, but he just gets hammered – 29 homers allowed in 139 2/3 pro innings last season. He hasn't had an ERA+ above 100 since his final Dodger season in 2001. How that could possibly change is beyond me, but karate kicks and Fernando Tatis won't change my fond memories of him. The beat writers will certainly get a day's worth of copy out of him.

Brian Shackelford, LHP: Another former position player, Shackelford switch to the mound and made his major-league debut with Cincinnati shortly before his 29th birthday and etched out a 2.43 ERA in 29 2/3 innings. But 2006 was a mini-horror show (13 runs in 16 1/3 innings), and at age 31, he finds himself far down the totem pole.

Tanyon Sturtze, RHP: Yeah, the Yankees got more out of Sturtze than the Dodgers got out of Brian Myrow after that May 2004 trade – kind of. Sturtze tallied 166 innings in three seasons with New York as a reliever and spot starter, but they weren't particularly effective innings in the end. Last season - a lost year - found him pitching 11 1/3 innings split over four levels of Atlanta's minors - quite a feat when you think about it. Somewhere amid the non-roster invitees is a guy waiting to duplicate Rudy Seanez's surprising 2007 comeback. Superficially, Sturtze might fit the bill, but I'm not counting on it.

George Lombard, OF: A second-round draftee by Atlanta back in 1994, the 32-year-old Lombard has only one noteworthy major-league season to his credit, a 2002 campaign with Detroit in which his OPS+ was 85 in 72 games. Last season saw even his AAA OPS dip to .717.

Terry Tiffee, 1B-3B: The switch-hitter went 12 for 44 with four doubles and two homers for the Twins in 2005, but hasn't improved upon that. Last season, in AAA in the Oriole organization, Tiffee OPSed .701. Little power, no speed, 29 in April … I'm not feeling it.

Danny Ardoin, C: Ardoin, 33, has a career OPS in the majors of .604, and that's with most of his career spent with the Rockies. Stuck in the minors last season, he OPSed .624 in 61 games. No, catching is not a strength in the Dodger minor leagues.

Rene Rivera, C: Rivera is 34 years old and has 34 career major-league hits. Which column will get to 40 first? Update: Misread the birthdate - Rivera is 24 years old. So, which column will get to 100 first?

Gary Burghoff, RHP: Nasty, nasty stuff, but also very dated. Tommy Lasorda loves him.