
Jon's other site:
Screen Jam
TV and more ...
Dodger Thoughts T-Shirts
On sale through February 16, 2008


Click here to order.
* * *
The Best of Dodger Thoughts
A 325-page book featuring the top selections from this website from 2002-2005.
Click here for more information.
* * *
Or, just make a donation to support the site. Many thanks.
"Dodger Thoughts, like TiVo, is one of those things you can completely do without until you start using it."
- Fanerman
SI.com
NL West Preview
Evaluating Defense
Colletti and Depo
World Baseball Classic
Minor League Broadcasters
Slow Starts
Eric Gagne
Groundball Pitchers
Dodger Prospects
Albert Pujols
Humbled Angels
You Be the Manager
Eric Gagne II
Unreliable Relievers
Revived Angels
It's Okay To Sell
Dodger Turnaround
Andre Ethier
Padres-Dodgers Showdown
NL Final Weekend
Mets-Dodgers NLDS
Postseason ratings
NL Wish Lists
Manny vs. J.D.
McGwire Controversy
Dodger Offense
Trainers Matter
Variety
Will Arnett
John C. McGinley
Laura Dern
Imelda Staunton
SAG Awards
Ellen Pompeo
Grey's Anatomy
2004-05 Rookie Dramas
Anthony Hopkins
NATPE
Scrubs
Award Shows
Topher Grace
Ashton Kutcher
Writing on Improv Shows
Rainn Wilson
T.R. Knight
Guest Actors
Animation Guests
Joey Carson and Tennis
Donald Trump and Golf
2006 Emmys Nominees*
*Comedy Series
*Comedy Director
*Comedy Writer
*Comedy Actor
*Comedy Supporting Actor
Blue's Clues
Lizzy Caplan
Ann Donahue
CMT: Giants
CMA Awards
Little Miss Sunshine
Actor-Directors
Freshman Series
Clint Eastwood
Showrunners vs. Censors
Little Children
Breaking and Entering
Tartikoff Legacy Awards
Jackie Earle Haley
Knights of Prosperity
Office Online
2007 Screenplay Noms
Friday Night Lights
Robert Benton
ABC Fridays
Rookie Actors
Global Casting
2007 Pilot Casting
Sublime Slime
Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 50-35 (.588)
When Jon attended: 9-5 (.643)
When Jon didn't: 41-30 (.577)
Dodgers at home: 795-635 (.556)
Jon attended: 302-238 (.559)*
Jon didn't: 498-404 (.552)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2009 Salaries
(updated November 14)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$10,000,000 Hiroki Kuroda
*$475,000 Chad Billingsley
*$415,000 Clayton Kershaw
*$405,000 Eric Stults
*$400,000 James McDonald
*Total: $11,695,000
Bullpen (7)
*$2,500,000 Takashi Saito
*$1,300,000 Scott Proctor
*$1,500,000 Jonathan Broxton
*$425,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
*$420,000 Cory Wade
*$410,000 Ramon Troncoso
*$400,000 Scott Elbert
Total: $6,955,000
Also on 40-man roster
Mario Alvarez
Yhency Brazoban
Greg Miller
Justin Orenduff
Starting Lineup (8)
$17,100,000 Andruw Jones
*$3,000,000 Russell Martin
*$2,500,000 Andre Ethier
*$600,000 Matt Kemp
*$600,000 James Loney
*$500,000 Angel Berroa
*$410,000 Blake DeWitt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
Total: $25,110,000
Bench (5)
$10,000,000 Juan Pierre
*$600,000 Jason Repko
*$410,000 Delwyn Young
*$400,000 Danny Ardoin
*$400,000 Chin-Lung Hu
Total: $11,810,000
Note: Team can buy out Ozuna's 2009 option for $200,000
Also on 40-man roster
A.J. Ellis
Lucas May
Xavier Paul
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
Also Paying ...
$2,000,000 Brad Penny (buyout of $9,000,000 option)
$50,000 Gary Bennett (buyout of $900,000 option)
Note: Kansas City is responsible for $500,000 buyout of Angel Berroa's $5,500,000 option for 2009.
Working total: *$68,020,000
ESPN BR
BP
Cube Alvarez
ESPN BR
BP
Cube Abreu
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Beimel
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Bennett
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Billingsley
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Brazoban
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Broxton
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube DeWitt
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Ethier
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Furcal
ESPN BR BP Cube Garciaparra
ESPN BR BP Cube Hu
ESPN BR BP Cube Jones
ESPN BR BP Cube Kemp
ESPN BR BP Cube Kent
ESPN BR BP Cube Kuo
ESPN BR BP Cube Kuroda
ESPN BR BP Cube LaRoche
ESPN BR BP Cube Loaiza
ESPN BR BP Cube Loney
ESPN BR BP Cube Lowe
ESPN BR BP Cube Martin
ESPN BR BP Cube May
ESPN BR BP Cube McDonald
ESPN BR BP Cube Meloan
ESPN BR BP Cube Miller
ESPN BR BP Cube Orenduff
ESPN BR BP Cube Park
ESPN BR BP Cube Paul
ESPN BR BP Cube Penny
ESPN BR BP Cube Pierre
ESPN BR BP Cube Proctor
ESPN BR BP Cube Repko
ESPN BR BP Cube Saito
ESPN BR BP Cube Schmidt
ESPN BR BP Cube Stults
ESPN BR BP Cube Sweeney
ESPN BR BP Cube Troncoso
ESPN BR BP Cube Wade
ESPN BR BP Cube Young
ESPN BR BP Cube Alomar
ESPN BR BP Cube Alvarez
ESPN BR BP Cube Aybar
ESPN BR BP Cube Baez
ESPN BR BP Cube Bako
ESPN BR BP Cube Beltre
ESPN BR BP Cube Bradley
ESPN BR BP Cube Cabrera
ESPN BR BP Cube Carrara
ESPN BR BP Cube Carter
ESPN BR BP Cube Chen
ESPN BR BP Cube Choi
ESPN BR BP Cube Cora
ESPN BR BP Cube Crosby
ESPN BR BP Cube Cruz
ESPN BR BP Cube Dessens
ESPN BR BP Cube Dreifort
ESPN BR BP Cube Drew
ESPN BR BP Cube Encarnacion
ESPN BR BP Cube Edwards
ESPN BR BP Cube Erickson
ESPN BR BP Cube Falkenborg
ESPN BR BP Cube Finley
ESPN BR BP Cube Flores
ESPN BR BP Cube Gagne
ESPN BR BP Cube Grabowski
ESPN BR BP Cube Green
ESPN BR BP Cube Guzman
ESPN BR BP Cube Hanrahan
ESPN BR BP Cube Hernandez
ESPN BR BP Cube Hundley
ESPN BR BP Cube Ishii
ESPN BR BP Cube Izturis
ESPN BR BP Cube Jackson
ESPN BR BP Cube Karros
ESPN BR BP Cube Ketchner
ESPN BR BP Cube Ledee
ESPN BR BP Cube Lima
ESPN BR BP Cube Lo Duca
ESPN BR BP Cube Lofton
ESPN BR BP Cube T. Martin
ESPN BR BP Cube Mayne
ESPN BR BP Cube G. Mota
ESPN BR BP Cube Mueller
ESPN BR BP Cube Myrow
ESPN BR BP Cube Nakamura
ESPN BR BP Cube Navarro
ESPN BR BP Cube Nomo
ESPN BR BP Cube Osoria
ESPN BR BP Cube A. Perez
ESPN BR BP Cube O. Perez
ESPN BR BP Cube Phillips
ESPN BR BP Cube Proctor
ESPN BR BP Cube Roberts
ESPN BR BP Cube Robles
ESPN BR BP Cube Romano
ESPN BR BP Cube C. Ross
ESPN BR BP Cube D. Ross
ESPN BR BP Cube Sanchez
ESPN BR BP Cube Schmoll
ESPN BR BP Cube Sele
ESPN BR BP Cube Seo
ESPN BR BP Cube Shuey
ESPN BR BP Cube Stanley
ESPN BR BP Cube S. Stewart
ESPN BR BP Cube Thompson
ESPN BR BP Cube Thurston
ESPN BR BP Cube Valentin
ESPN BR BP Cube Venafro
ESPN BR BP Cube Ventura
ESPN BR BP Cube Weaver
ESPN BR BP Cube Werth
ESPN BR BP Cube Wilson
ESPN BR BP Cube Wunsch
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Baseball Toaster runs on some experimental software called Fairpole. It's still under development.
For more information, please visit the Fairpole blog, or read the FAQ.
Every player has a story to tell, a challenge to conquer, a skeleton to uncloset - even the players guaranteed to be on the Opening Day roster (unless they're disabled or traded).
Here are 21 locks that are loaded:
Starting pitchers
Derek Lowe, RHP: Lowe's tenure with the Dodgers has been applauded to the extent that a contract many people initially questioned has been something of a bargain. Lowe will be 35 this June, a year after he stopped being impervious to injury, and his ERA in the second half of 2007 was 5.23 (for the season, it was 3.88). So if you want to start worrying now, you can, but he probably remains a decent bet for an ERA around 4.00.
Brad Penny, RHP: A Cy Young candidate for much of 2007, Penny has won over some of his harshest critics. Curiously, the improvement in his performance and durability comes with a decline in his strikeout rate, to 5.8 per nine innings. His second-half ERA also jumped in 2007 (2.39 to 3.84). At the same time, opponents batted .302 on balls in play last season against Penny, which is not particularly lucky, and he still performed well. He also reduced the number of home runs allowed dramatically. As much as he has blossomed, Penny, who turns 30 in May, is more of an enigma than ever. Overall, I'd expect something closer to his second-half performance of 2007, but not necessarily worse.
Chad Billingsley, RHP: I'm telling you, the sky's the limit for this kid. In 20 starts last season, he had a 3.38 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 112 innings. The areas targeted for improvement, control (51 walks as a starter) and endurance (5 2/3 innings per start), are well within reach for the 23-year-old in fact, hopefully solving the first will solve the second. I truly think he'll be the ace of the staff this season.
Hiroki Kuroda, RHP: Kuroda's chief task is to avoid the big inning. If he gives up three runs every six innings, his ERA isn't going to excite anyone, but he'll still be preserving the bullpen and giving the Dodgers a chance to win. But it won't be enough to pitch three shutout innings and then call for a rescue after hanging a four-spot in the fourth. Kuroda needs to provide damage control at the back of the rotation anything on top of that will be a bonus.
Jason Schmidt, RHP: Schmidt's chief task is to tell the truth.
Swingman
Esteban Loaiza, RHP: I don't know, man. A 36-year-old pitcher coming off injury and with one above-average ERA+ season since 2003? What are we hoping for here? Aaron Sele 2006 is probably a best-case scenario the Dodgers get 50 or so decent innings before implosion.
Bullpen
Takashi Saito, RHP: Joe P. Sheehan of Baseball Analysts expounded on the wonders of Saito. "The thing that really stands out here is how effective Saito's fastball is against right-handed hitters: 60% of the time, when a [right-handed hitter] swings against Saito's fastball, he misses it, which is an amazingly high amount of misses, for any type of pitch," Sheehan wrote. After watching him for two remarkable seasons, I'm a Saito acolyte. You just have to worry about the periodic signs of fragility. Some days, maybe even some weeks, Saito (38 on Valentine's Day) just won't be available.
Jonathan Broxton, RHP: Broxton, you'll recall, had that disappointing finish to 2007 when it appeared he was tired: 10 appearances in 14 days, 7 1/3 innings, nine runs, 11 hits, five homers. The Colorado Rockies would have been within their rights to vote Broxton a playoff share. Still, it's safe to expect we'll have the (not so) old Broxton back. Including the late-season meltdown, he still finished with a 2.85 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 82 innings, and only one other home run allowed. With Saito getting older, Broxton (he'll still only turn 24 in June) might be called upon to pitch in the ninth inning more this season. His OPS allowed in the ninth last season was .751, compared to .531 in the eighth. On the other hand, he was much less lucky in the ninth, with opponents batting .372 on balls in play (compared to .269 in the eighth). Generally, Broxton had no problem pitching in pressure situations (.634 OPS allowed from the seventh inning on in close games), showing that he is a closer in everything but name.
Joe Beimel, LHP: Beimel hasn't been a disaster against right-handed batters (.745 OPS allowed), which is why the Dodgers have been able to sneak full innings out of him from time to time. But he really remains at his best against lefties (.490 OPS allowed. 25 strikeouts of 108 batters), so the team shouldn't lose sight of what his true strength is.
Scott Proctor, RHP: Last season, Proctor arguably pitched better with no rest days (.684 OPS allowed) than he pitched with some rest (.738 OPS allowed in all situations). However, his ERA splits don't correlate with that he had a 3.81 ERA with no rest, compared to 3.65 overall. ERA, of course, does not factor in inherited runners, but in any case, the perception that Proctor wears down with overuse might be faulty. My guess he's just inconsistent, and not entirely reliable in late and close situations in general (.788 OPS allowed). In other words, the 31-year-old is a pretty typical major-league reliever.
Rudy Seanez, RHP: "If you subtract six or seven (bad) games, his ERA would have been under three,"Ned Colletti told Tony Jackson of the Daily News. That's pretty much true of any pitcher, which is why, for example, I went out of my way to note that Broxton kept his ERA under 3.00 even when you include his worst games. Seanez did perform surprisingly well last season, but let's not start making excuses for him. He's 39, and there's not going to be much milk left in this cow. However, there's probably no better time to use him than early in the season.
Catchers
Russell Martin, C: If he had an OPS+ of 113, 19 homers, 32 doubles and 21 steals last year at age 24, what will he do this year? I sure am eager to find out. Meanwhile, keeping him rested will no doubt be a primary topic of conversation. In September, he OPSed .725 (after .944 in August). Though he might well get more days off early in the season, I am just not convinced it's possible to keep him firing on all cylinders in the final month. In the end, he's still a catcher. You can't count on him being the centerpiece of the offense in the final 30 games, no matter what you do. Just enjoy him while you can.
Gary Bennett, C: Almost hopeless offensively his OPS+ has been below 70 every year since 2000 though a 7 for 11 finish to the season raised his 2007 OPS from .546 to .621.
Infielders
James Loney, 1B: Naw, I'm not counting on the home run every 23 at-bats continuing from 2007 into 2008. Plus, his batting average on balls in play last season was a robust .350. Those signs point to a dropoff. On the other hand, how do you factor in the fact that this guy is just turning 24 in May and on the upswing of his career? Figure that he might have a slump to battle through but hopefully, he'll be given the freedom to battle through it.
Jeff Kent, 2B: I'm gonna reprise old writings here. Now that he has been relieved of batting cleanup, now that the Dodgers can replace him defensively in the late innings without worrying about removing the centerpiece of the offense, Kent should continue to be an asset in 2008, even assuming he hits a post-40th birthday decline. It should be noted that he OPSed .863 after September 1 and .917 after the All-Star break last year.
Rafael Furcal, SS: He'll tease you, and unease you - all the better just to please you. He'll expose you, when he snows you off your feet with the crumbs he throws you. He'll take a tumble on you, roll you like you were dice, until you come out blue.
Nomar Garciaparra, IF: Garciaparra's OPS+ fell from 120 in 2006 to 78 in 2007. An atrocious first half (.654 OPS) dragged him down. His second half in 2007 (.814 OPS in 134 plate appearances), however, gives me hope that he can fill Olmedo Saenz's role better than Saenz did last season. (Saenz had an even more precipitous decline; his OPS+ fell from 132 in 2006 to 63.)
Outfielders
Andruw Jones, CF: Last year, in 659 plate appearances, Jones had 236 total bases (on hits), 70 walks, five steals and eight HBPs, while getting caught stealing two times and hitting into 16 double plays, for a total of 301 bases. According to Baseball Prospectus, he had a .258 EQA.
Juan Pierre, LF-CF Last year, in 729 plate appearances, Pierre had 236 total bases (on hits), 33 walks, 64 steals and six HBPs, while getting caught stealing 15 times and hitting into 10 double plays, for a total of 314 bases. According to Baseball Prospectus, he had a .255 EQA.
I'm counting on Jones improving from a career-worst year and providing better defense as well. But it is surprising how close the two were in offensive production in 2007.
Matt Kemp, OF: In 477 career plate appearances, Kemp has 25 walks and 119 strikeouts. That's the biggest concern about an otherwise precocious offensive performer. He also batted .411 on balls in play, which is the kind of average Andre Ethier had much of 2006 but was unable to maintain. Kemp's fast, but he's not The Flash. You might have to knock about 50 points off Kemp's 2007 on-base percentage of .373 ... unless he figures out some plate discipline. If he does, look out.
Andre Ethier, OF: Ethier's 2007 showed that a sophomore season doesn't guarantee improvement over freshman year. But with nearly 1,000 career plate appearances before turning 26, Ethier's OPS+ is 108, his on-base percentage is .357 and his slugging percentage is .464. That's nothing to dismiss. He also has earned some plaudits for his defense. Would love to see what he'd do if he were actually given some job security.
* * *
New Dodger chief marketing officer Dr. Charles Steinberg (do you have to say "Dr." even when it's not relevant?) has a lot on his mind, according to Doug Miller of MLB.com.
This could be good, and then again ...
There's plenty of room in Steinberg's head for more creative promotions and Dodger Stadium innovations. After all, according to Steinberg, sometimes all it takes is a personal experience or clubhouse coincidence to spark a summer-long fad.
"Try to tell me why everybody stops what they're doing and sings 'Sweet Caroline' in Boston," Steinberg says. "There's a Rally Monkey in Anaheim. The Beer Barrel Polka is a signature in games in Milwaukee.
"I don't think you can necessarily try to invent some gimmick and impose it. I think you need your eyes and ears open so that when something emerges and connects, you're ready to capitalize on it."
There's logic there ... although that logic could also be translated as "Beachballs for everyone!"
There is plenty of excitement, no need for "the wave" lessons between innings. Honestly, does the rally monkey really create more excitement than the "noise monitor" the Dodgers use when they get a few men on?
The Lakers owner says "Yes."
But he's completely mistaken when he says "summer-long fad"; you're not looking for a fad but something that will become a tradition, a ritual year after year, as the things mentioned above have.
From the Coliseum, it spread back throughout the rest of MLB.
Is there anyone (in addition to me) that thinks Kent will be a better cleanup hitter (by which I guess I just mean "better hitter") in 2008 than Jones?
Who's to say.
So who unmasked him? Was it like a Mexican wrestling match?
You're welcome.
Thanks. I haven't had a chance yet to look everything over.
Coming from you, that worried me, because your comments always have something to back them up. But I guess I'm missing the warning signs.
I prefer my idea about the wrestling match better.
Recently, Michael Schur acknowledged that he is one of the creative forces behind the unconscionably funny and satirical sports-minded site, FireJoeMorgan.com, writing under the pseudonym Ken Tremendous.
I don't think I can wrap my head around such a momentous collision of worlds.
Au contraire, this is exactly the point at which you should be pouring it on.
Knock it up a notch. BAM!
Low-key and out of the blue; perhaps that's the best way to pull an internet reveal.
Not only that, I could see Ned signing him to an extension next offseason. Something along the lines of 2/$35 million depending on how the pitching market shapes up.
He violated my trust!
40 - I don't know. I'd say, I've got an icebreaker.
43 - LOL
To comment, please log in.
Not a member? Register!