LAT from other thread:

Here are some observations from the first 3 games:

--Russell Martin looks thinner to me this year. Maybe its just my imagination, but his face doesnt look as round or body as stout as last year.

--Andruw Jones---looks old. Still with great instincts in the OF, but looks big and slow. He's going to have to hit home runs this year to be a true difference making player.

I think this Giants series was probably an indicator of what the year will bring. Lots of low scoring, close games. Dodgers just dont have the consistent big home runs guys to always get offense.

Last night's 9th inning was a joke for other reasons than for what were already stated. Forget Juan Pierre (who shouldnt have even been up), but giving up an out down 1 run isnt a very smart play.

And why did Joe Torre wait until the 5th to go to Billingsley? They do have TheWeatherChannel in the clubhouse right? It was probably a pretty good bet that there'd be a rain delay. Why warm up one of your best starters to only pitch him 1 inning?

Bizarre game.
The Giants are a really really bad team.

The Giants are a really really bad team

As I've said before, it's truly hard to believe that Sabean has kept his job. The only explanation I can come up with is that he must have been doing the bidding of ownership, such that they can't reasonably hold him personally responsible.

Serious question: are we really supposed to believe that the difference in Sabean's performance compared to what any of us could have done (or any other random person) is really worth however much money Sabean gets paid?

It's actually is a good play to bunt if you're trying to get one run with the top of the order coming up.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php

Only two games of watching him, but Kemp just seems a little antsy and is swinging at pitches just off the plate (mostly a bit high, and inside pitches).

Pitchers are challenging him, and Kemp's minor league numbers show a 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. Thus, he's unlikely to improve on that anytime soon, we just need him to start crushing the ball more often to balance that out. No reason to think he won't adjust, it might just be a few weeks.

He's 23 years old.

I don't know that Andruw looks old to me, I don't recall him ever being a very fast runner. He beat at that 6-4-3 DP attempt yesterday - good enough for me. I just see him pulling every single outside pitch. If he can fix that, we're happy. If he takes too long or doesn't, then he repeats last year.

I was at the game last night, and I'm betting that, at the time Torre chose to go to Bills, the rain was looking pretty weak. Then it picked up while he was warming up. I was sitting there thinking the storm wouldn't amount to much, and minutes later they rolled out the tarps.

To add to the booing discussion, it took the crowd about 8 Kuo pitches before they started booing him. A last-minute fill-in making his unexpected season debut. Sheesh.

However much you were concerned about a hitter three days ago is how much you should be concerned now.

Eh, I'm not too sad about last night. It was a strange game played in bizarre conditions.

What I AM sad about is that I'll have to wait six more days to see a proper Chad Billingsley start.

Weather: 1 Torre: 0.

3 games, 3 lineups.

I hope this doesn't continue.

How about a little consistency?

It looks to me like Kemp has been trying to lay off the border line outside pitch, but I think he's gotten a few called strikes that were very questionable. So, now maybe he thinks he can't get a break and has to swing at them.

6
I also seem to remember MVP runner-up David Wright having a pretty putrid April last year. Russ struck out three times last night. That is something that he has never shown the propensity of doing even in the minors.

He may be off for a bit, but he is simply the best catcher in the league and he is too good not to find his stroke after 15 games or so. Just as a reminder, Magglio Ordonez, Alfonso Soriano, and Justin Morneau are a combined 2 for 27 on this young season.

3--

Based on table 2, the sacrifice bunt still seems like a poor play in most runner on first, no out situations. The one exception, not surprisingly, is the NL pitcher spot, where a successful bunt reduces the expected runs by only .019 (.739 with the ninth place hitter up and a runner on first/no outs to .720 with a leadoff hitter up, a runner on second and one out).

It's still reducing the expected runs, plus this study assumes that the 9th place hitter is most of the time a pitcher. Whereas last night, there was an actual hitter in that spot. There's no way I'd ever bunt in that situation.

5--If Torre's as old school to judge the weather by just how it appears, and not by radar--that could be a problem.

11 Expected runs are reduced, but the odds of scoring one run increase.

8 - Other than Pierre starting one game, the same eight position players started all three games.

Part of me thinks that Kemp should try to hit the ball in the air more often to take advantage of his power, but I'm not sure his OBP can take the hit that would ensue from fewer groundball singles.

Jones looked fine to me last night, if still not as quick as usual in his batspeed. He had a nice double last night but on a pitch he might normally have hit out. Still, he doesn't seem "slower" at all. He looks as superb in the outfield as I'd hoped, and ran down the basepaths at a pretty good clip from what I saw.

I worry about the amount of worrying going on here after three days and a 2-1 start.

You have: a brand new manager, still getting the feel for his team after a discombobulating spring that took place in 4 time zones and with split squads all over the place, plus the infield injuries. I really didn't expect a hot April from the Dodgers at all, if they are 4 games over .500 to end the month I'd be okay with that.

14/8 - And yeah, I was just about to type the same thing.

1 -- Low scoring, close games ALL year because that's what we had the last two games (not even all three)? Look, the Giants are a bad team because their offense is hopeless (scored four runs against us in three games). But the Giants pitching is GOOD, and Cain and Lincecum are better than just good, they are great. Our offense is going to get shut down by great pitching often, because that is what happens to EVERY team's offense when facing great pitching. One through eight, right tnow, our line-up is more talented offensively than any Dodger line-up in many years. We are going to score a lot of runs this year. A lot. Those runs just aren't going to come easy against really outstanding pitching. Fortunately, there is a lot of bad pitching around that we will exploit.

I finished watching the game this morning over breakfast, and I must say, that was one weird ride. It never felt like a real game...kind of hard to explain, but it was just strange. Our offense did not step up last night, but I am frustrated by the inconsistent calls at the plate. There were quite a few strikes called that were way off the plate, and I think Dewitt beat out the play at second on Pierre's bunt, but, oh well.

Sad there is no game tonight, and why does it take so long to start the final four? I am dying for some more basketball.

3 games didn't change the fact that we have legit hitters 1-8, and that's before we get LaRoche back. (I'm not convinced that DeWitt can keep this up, although I'm impressed so far.)

Other than JP, no one makes me cringe when I see him at the plate. Or on the mound, for that matter.

14/17

Don't you think theres some value in setting a lineup and letting it play out a little while (i.e. seme players, same batting order... )? Impossible to prove I suspect.

5 I'm sure the Doppler was showing weak rain at best. We really only got maybe half an hour of significant rain. That just happened to be when Chad took the mound.

I'm mad that I went to sleep after checking Extra Innings at 10pm to find no Dodger game, only to find out this morning that the game started only 5 minutes later!

And I thought Billingsley was brought in because they thought the rain would be light and not cause a delay. I didn't have much of a problem with that move.

OT:

I finally watched the first episode of Battlestar Galactica season 3.5 (I think it is 3.5, I can't keep up, but my neighbor buys the dvd's and lends them to me). Man, this show is fantastic...what a great first episode.

I just noticed in the play by play that Loney advanced only one base (2nd to 3rd) on a double by DeWitt in the 7th. Was this some sort of a pop fly double for DeWitt? I looked in the game thread last night and didn't see a lot of outrage, so I assume it was defensible that Loney didn't score.

21 - You haven't made the case that Torre hasn't been doing that. I mean, all things considered, one change is hardly a big deal.

I'm scheduled to appear on XM Satellite Radio's Baseball Beat with Charley Steiner at 11:25 a.m. - channel 175.

http://baseballbeattheblog.blogspot.com/2008/04/baseball-beat-thursday-april-3rd.html

It was a bloop that dropped out of the glove of Rowand.
Loney thought he was going to catch it.

25 ya dewitt was thinking double out of the box on a bloop to rowand. rowand almost caught the ball it was deflected off his glove so loney had to wait.

The doppler radar was showing there would be rain early/midway through the game then clear out. We were commenting on it during and before the actual game. If we could see this, why couldn't Torre or someone with close contact with him. Next time they should put the doppler radar image up on Diamond Vision. vr, Xei

Are anyone else's internets misbehaving today? Mine are having problems...

27

Hooray! I get channel 175 on the computer.

ps: welcome back D4P; and yes I realize I'm very late realizing you returned.

I thought maybe Torre would use Pierre as a pinch runner for DeWitt in the 9th and use a different pinch hitter. I suppose burning another bench player with the threat of extra innings played into that decision.
vr, Xei

Kemp seems like he's missing a lot of fastballs in the strike zone right now. It's always surprising to me when pitchers challenge a player like Kemp by pumping the strike zone full of fastballs, but until this point it's worked. I wouldn't want to make a living trying to blow fastballs by Kemp though.

It's time to get excited about the minor league season. Others please help, but here are some names I'm looking forward to tracking this season:

AAA

Meloan, Miller, & Orenduff all look to establish themselves as legitimate options for the big club. I expect all of them to be treated as starters, but the jury's still out on their future roles. Miller and Orenduff appear most likely to be relievers down the road. (Stults is the other starter to follow.)

With no infielders worthy of mention, Paul & Repko are the two to watch. Paul is an especially interesting prospect, as he has yet to put it all together offensively.

AA

Again, mostly pitchers to follow here. Kershaw & McDonald are the big two, with Wade, Braboban, & Alvarez also worth watching. Anything less than domination from Brazoban will be disappointing, and Wade has been mentioned as a future bullpen option. (Am I leaving anyone important out? Hammes?)

In terms of position players, May is the big name. Can his defense catch up to his offense? The other interesting prospect is DeJesus, who would appear to be a candidate to break out (in a modest way!). Hoffman is the only other name that caught my eye--barely.

A+

I need some help here. Some of the pitching names blur together for me at this level. Adkins, Wall, & Guerra are all worth following. Not sure about Bastardo (!), Pratt, Pfieffer, Sexton, and Cody/Garrett White. Any further input is appreciated.

Bell is the big name on offense. In a system lacking in big-time power prospects, he stands out. The outfielders have me a little stumped: Berezay, Giles, Hunt, Locke, Robinson, & Rogowski. None of them is highly regarded, but further illumination is welcome.

A-

Looks like Morris, Justin Miller, & Aguasviva are the key names for pitching. Steven Johnson & Smit also stand out.

On offense, Baez & Lambo are the star attractions, with Mattingly and Jaime Ortiz also interesting.

I'll leave the Rookie levels alone. I've done enough damage :)

24 The first couple episodes of season 3 are mind blowing, but it slows down significantly in the middle of the season. Im excited for the new show on Friday but Im not nerdy enough to stay in on a Friday night to watch it.

1 - Andruw Jones---looks old.

He looked pretty good tracking that ball over his head last night. It's been a long time since I was that comfortable with a Dodger OFer tracking a flyball down like that.

36 They know their audience apparently.

The host on MLB Home Plate (ch 175) discusses the Dodgers at this moment, AND speculates a Pierre trade.

Its like Dodger Thoughts on the radio for the moment.

35. Where is Withrow pitching at?
vr, Xei

I think in the case of Kemp, being probably the highest beta player on the team, he should be penciled in somewhere and not have to guess where he fits in that day. Lets see what we have. You can either look at it as: its only 3 games we dont know what Torre is doing yet or its been 3 games and he has already been used 3 different ways:

-started and hit 3rd (where the teams best hitter usually is)
-come off the bench mid game (L/R splits justify?)
-started and hit 7th

So what is going to happen Friday?

I was just saying I hope this isn't how it goes over time..... might be nice to not guess what he is expected to be.

Minor League acquisition question for you: Does anyone know how Alberto Concepcion ended up on the Marlins' organization?

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Alberto%20Concepcion&pos=C&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=444337

http://blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-aR.3pW00d6La91k_wR0Obts9?tag=alberto_concepcion

Thanks in advance! Looking forward to the REAL opening night, which occurs tonight here in Jacksonville. Be sure to check my blog for updates!

41 Thinking Matt Kemp will suddenly fall apart if he has to bat 10 minutes later isn't giving Matt Kemp very much credit.

41 - Look, I'd like to see Kemp in there every day. But I don't think it's reasonable to give a manager zero latitude.

The batting order issue for Kemp is related to lefty vs. righty on the mound, and is not a big deal at all.

410 All's fair in love and war, right?

That is in no way true nor should it be.

But the main thing is, when are these type of nonsensical sayings, memes, notions,...whatever you want to call them, going to go away? Or are we stuck with them forever?

"Animals are smarter than we think they are."

OK, that little notion has been around for about 150 years now, since the modern age. So have we caught up to it? Can we now say that dogs are, you know, JUST ABOUT as smart as we think they are? I mean finally?!

No, it will never go away. Never. The Eckstein phenomenon won't go away after he's gone. There will be new Ecksteins with the same myths to go with them. Guys who flip out will always have "energized" the team. Quiet women are wildcats in bed. Crusty old cryptically "wise" baseball managers will always BE wise. Coworkers 200 years from now will STILL feel the need to come up with things to say to each other in the elevator. When really, it's as pointless as a pitchers wins-losses, and we all know it.

And you don't have to be sophisticated or educated to break free of the delusions. The mass man has his common sense and that's all it takes...if he'd only use it. He didn't HAVE to believe that you needed 8 glasses of water a day. All he had to do was look around him and see that NO ONE was drinking 8 glasses of water a day, yet they WEREN'T dropping dead. In fact they made it through the day perfectly well.

Serious question: are we really supposed to believe that the difference in Sabean's performance compared to what any of us could have done (or any other random person) is really worth however much money Sabean gets paid?

Does he actually get paid his marginal revenue product? Probably not by traditional means. The simplest explanation would be that the Giants really like what he does, sort of an Austrian subjective value thing.

41 - This is refreshing. AB's so far this season:

Furcal 15
Ethier 13
Martin 13
Loney 12
Andruw 12
Dewitt 12
Kent 11
Kemp 10
Delwyn 3
Pierre 3

40 Looks like Ogden.

41 With Kemp, maybe he was trying to take a little pressure off when he came back to the line-up, since he's obviously pressing a lot right now. I don't think Torre's too worried about him, but probably thought it would be better for him to ease back into it lower in the order until he gets in a groove. Just a thought.

46 -- Oooh! The Austrian school of economic thought! Been a long time since I read some Ludwig Von Mises.

42 -- What is your blog's URL?

welcome back D4P; and yes I realize I'm very late realizing you returned

Thanks.

37--I think his instincts are still great. But I think in Tuesday's game there was a blooper that he didnt get too--and that raised my eyebrows since he normally plays very shallow (since he is great going back on balls).

51 -- http://360.yahoo.com/eldertrunk

42 Minor league free agent I'm guessing. He has enough service time.

when is cleveland gonna decide to score a run, for pete's sake??

37 - Because he plays so shallow, we'll be seeing a lot of that this year. Great to have him out there. Any post-game explanation on the apparent confusion with Ethier last night? The annoucers seems to agree that Druw would not have been able to throw out the runner in any event.

I tried to post this last week from my Blackberry, but it would not post for some reason.

I had a meningitis scare which turned out to be an unidentified and particularly nasty virus coupled with a migraine. Anyhoo, I had to get a spinal tap, CT scan, chest X-ray, and 4 vials of blood drawn. The whole time I had Dodger Thoughts updating on my phone.

11 hours in the emergency room and a spinal tap are just a bit easier to handle when debating lineups and discussing our boys in blue. I literally was reading everyone's posts while in the fetal position getting a 5 inch needle inserted into my spinal column.

Thanks for the site Jon, and thanks to all of the regulars who make this site so interesting and readable.

35 - you forgot George Lombard and his Fabulous Orchestra, playing nightly in Vegas.

Boy that sounds intense, CajunDodger. I'm glad you're feelin' all right and hope you dont have to go through that again.

Now you can turn this blog up to.. eleven!

58 - glad to hear you're ok, sounds like a rough patch

From the department of Didn't See That Coming: Russell Martin begins the season 0 for 11.

58- Glad to hear you are feeling better.

Anyone can go 0 for 11, even Albert Pujols, at any time in the season, except for possibly Ichiro. The bats will warm up. I am not worried about the offense at all.

Unless Pierre is up in a key situation in the 9th. But I doubt we'll be seeing much more of that...

60 , 61 , 63

Thanks. Feeling better, but my wife nearly killed me because both she and my son got the same thing. Not fun.

27 does XM or can you link the show to your next thread Jon, Id really like to hear it. I'm at work & can't hear it :o(

66

If you have an XM subscription, you can listen live at http://www.xmradio.com

Even without a subscription, I believe XM radio online offers a free trial to listen to their online streams, including Ch 175.

45. What the frip?...I expect Bills to pitch a few innings over the weekend...Glad Chan Ho got called up. He deserved to be there from Day 1...I am looking forward to watching the D's live on Japanese TV this weekend when Kuroda pitches. It will be my first chance, since MLB.TV is blacked out in Japan. In the Nomo-Kaz years, I could watch 2 games a week on NHK, but nothing since. So, I was happier than most D fans when Kuroda was signed. (An every day player would have been even better)...By the way, even though I rarely post, I often read. Cheers to Jon and all the great posters...

67 They must have just added that channel recently, I never understood why they wouldn't let subscribsers listen to that particular station online since it is XM-generatated content.

Jon, don't bring up Charley's wearing a hoodie.

57 - The ball was definitely drifting on Ethier, back towards center. Unless Andre enthusiastically called him off, I think that's Andruw's ball as "Mr Gold Glove best CFer of his Generation". I was surprised he was so non-chalant about it.

As far as the throw, Andre would have to catch the ball and throw across his body whereas Andruw would've been throwing with momentum. More reason for Andruw to have taken more charge out there.

55 Thanks!

64 - Ichiro started the spring 0-for-21 this year. It was his 2nd longest streak since coming over I believe (of course this didn't technically count though).

68 Torre said that Billingsley will pitch on Monday in Arizona, so Molly only has to wait 5 days.

If a certain team wins a basketball game on Saturday, that might one of the few Dodger games this year that I will miss completely.

Johnny Cueto looks completely unhittable right now. The D backs have no chance up there. Gracie and the other Snakes' announcer are in awe.

70 Didn't it also looked like Ethier lost that one in the heavy rain? I know I wouldn't have been able to find the ball in all that wet glare (of course, I'm not a professional athlete.) But either way, I agree t hat Druw should've been on that one instead.

Apparently this is a bad opening week for soft tossing lefties.

If the Nationals hold on their 5-0 lead, they will be 4-0 while the Phillies will get their fans in mid-season form by going 0-3.

73
bhsportsguy is actually off chanting "Rock Chalk Jayhawk!" now.

It's all been a facade.

Hey, Odalis did great.

74 Yeah, Cueto looks nice. 5 k's in 3 innings.

Look out Yunel Escobar, Blake Dewitt is 3rd in baseball in VORP.

75 - Perhaps Druw was leery about playing in the Dodger outfield after his buddy Raffy clued him in on what could happen out there. Ethier probaly didn't dispell this perception with the ball he robbed from JP in ST ;)

31 for a while I was having trouble loading DT, other than that ok

That was just a strange play. Ethier was looking at Andruw, expecting him to take the ball, but I am wondering if both players kind of lost it in the rain.

I hope the Jean Pedro trade rumor is true. I would much rather have Repko on the bench. JP is not only unworthy of a starting spot, but he offers little off the bench outside of pinch running. If I were the GM, I would eat half of the salty one's contract and even throw in mid major prospect just to rid myself of the distraction.

Speaking of mid majors, what the heck is the College Basketball Invitational? Are people actually paying money to watch NIT rejects Bradley vs.Tulsa in a 3-game series?

It's way too early to be concerned, but does it seem that Martin is late on every fastball thrown at him so far? I was shocked he saw any breaking/off-speed stuff last night.

Nate Silver's projected Pecota standings show that the Giants will give up the 4th lowest amount of runs in the NL (Dodgers are 3rd)

However, Pecota also projects that the Giants will score less than 4 runs a game.

The D-Backs and Dodgers are both projected to win 87 games and tie for first.