That's a good way to get away with making up a story, actually. Just say that whoever the subject of your story is "probably won't tell you that story." Then, when the subject is asked, he or she will deny everything and thereby only strengthen the story's credibility.

Very nice. It was because we were getting Schmidt that we could not "afford" Maddox in 2007, right?

Anyway, it's a cool story, but if it's true, one wonders why Penny didn't do it for the rest of 2006. Lord knows he needed the help.

Am I first? Udder madness. But I really appreciate Maddox's intelligence, and if he wasn't a Boras clientI would nave found him a valuable clubhouse sage even if he rarel threw an inning.

dux not dox. I always do that; sorry.

2 Maddux was a mediocre 40-year-old pitcher who insisted on a two-year contract and whose agent was Scott Boras. Letting him go wasn't a mistake -- it was the only smart thing to do.

5

Yeah, "dox" causes me to picture him sporting a huge afro with his cap resting at the top.

7 That, or running the Federal Reserve.

The accompanying video won't play on my computer, but that's okay. I just love the idea that it exists.

Joe Morgan is probably not as bad of a commentator than I think he is, but listening to him talk is as pleasant as a pelvic exam. Guh.

than = as. Durnit.

For more interesting managerial decisions than what we've been putting up with, see the latest post on Cub Town (which nobody seems to read - he never gets any comments there, at least not from Cub fans. I guess there must be more popular Cub sites.)

I was at the Las Vegas/Sacramento game today. I didn't hear a Dodger score at the ballpark, and spent the 90 minute drive home talking with my wife and listening to music. But in my head, I was thinking probabilities. I put the odds of Kemp starting today at 99% and the odds Billingsley beating Maddux at 60%. Seeing the boxscore on my computer was a gutshot.

However, there good news at the Sacramento ballpark. Pinango, although long past prospect status, threw well and changed speeds nicely. In a pinch, he could probably win a couple of games as a fifth starter.

And I was far more impressed by Repko. A couple of solid basehits, a sliding, run-saving catch in centerfield, and a perfect throw to the plate to catch a runner by 15 feet. In a flash, I went from thinking the throw was a mistake to watching the runner not even bother to slide. I could live with an Ethier-Repko-Kemp outfield, and would probably enjoy it more than any of the other options right now.

I have been a Dodger fan since I was 4 according to my Dad and remember the 1955 World Series very well. Last year Colletti sent Loney down to Vegas to my disbelief and now Kemp sits.

When will the Dodgers play the players true fans want to see? I don't want to watch Kent, Pierre, or Jones although I am willing to treat Jones like Kemp is currently being treated. If Jones gets it together fine, if not, sit him.

From Kevin Pearson:

Kuo limited

>> Dodgers Manager Joe Torre said that Hong-Chih Kuo, who was moved from long relief to the starting spot for Tuesday's game, could throw as many as 70-80 pitches but that would be determined in part on how much Kuo had to exert himself throughout the game. <<

http://tinyurl.com/39s5sz

13

I would be too afraid for the careers of Ethier and Kemp to watch that everyday. Repko is a bit of a WMD.

O.K. Cub town. But as I tried to read it I couldn't get into it enough to follow the devious Lefty/righty deking and bobbing and finally gave up in boredom. To me the d's boredom and idiocy was much more interesting.

6 - we should have hired him to be a manager/pitching coach/player. It would have been worth it.

15 Like those quotes. Martin says if you prepare ahead of time you don't have to talk to them, and the less said, the better.
With Kuo he is learning some words.

16 Not even any close calls today. Even on the diving catch, he called off the leftfielder quite nicely. Perhaps at age 27 he has learned a new skill.

13 I agree with you. An outfield of Ethier-Repko-Kemp would have been fun to watch and they all would have been homegrown (Yes I know Ethier came in a trade but he didn't start as an everyday player).

We know Repko plays all out, sometimes to his demise and you have to wonder what this team would have been like if he didn't have Malachi Constant syndrome - "I was a victim of a series of accidents as are we all."

Andruw has just not been fun to watch. Downright painful. Swinging & missing and the smiling. And to hear Pierre sulk, get at bats, get some hits and take time time away from a very promising player's development is also difficult. Would I rather have Repko in center as opposed to what should be a platoon of Jones/Pierre in center? Yes. That money could gave been allocated elsewhere.

I guess I am hoping there are Vonnegut readers on the site.

20

Sounds potentially promising, then. I've already said he can have Pierre's spot if he puts Pierre on the shelf. With the roster the way it is now, that will probably be the only way he gets back to LA this season.

16 LOL that was what I was about to say.
20 Actually, Repko is such an enigma. My dissaprooval is only humour. The guy has so many skills I really hope he gets a chance somtime.

21

Listen: Matt Kemp has come unstuck in time.

22 Probably just wishful thinking, but I truly think a Pierre giveaway followed by a Repko call-up would improve the Dodgers. Of course, I truly think lots of things that have a snowball's chance of happening.

22 Sort of a Catch-22, then.

Would need Repko called up in order for Pierre to become injured, but couldn't have Repko called up unless Pierre was injured. It's a bit of a conundrum.

So as a trade-off for getting to see a better Tony Jackson-in-a-shirt photo, his comment links seem to be broken?

23 Agreed. The arm really surprised me today. Probably only a B- on strength, but an easy A on accuracy.

26

I really don't think it needs to happen on a baseball field. Perhaps they could just sit next to each other at some sort of 40-man roster banquet. Repko sets his water glass down too aggresively, shards of glass go flying...

Just need to do a little thinking outside the box.

Houston lost tonight to Denver so the Lakers will be the #1 seed in the West.

Yes. I imagine it's temporary, but I wonder if he knows.

30 Couldn't we also use Joe Beimel in the scenario you propose?

---

Didjy'all know that Kurt Vonnegut once wrote - briefly - for Sports Illustrated - sort of?

http://www.vonnegutweb.com/vonnegutia/occupations_si.html

I should say that the Lakers will be the #1 seed if they beat Sacramento. Other teams won't matter.

32 ...was for 28

33

Haha. Never heard that Vonnegut story. Awesome.

The Sirens of Titan was my favorite novel by him. My least favorite was Galapagos. Any takers or defenders?

The longest 0fer streak I can find in Andruw Jones' career is a 0 for 26 spell in April 2005.

He struck out 10 times in that stretch.

I would be in Heaven with this situation. Jones and Pierre tweak hamstrings and rehab at Vegas. Meanwhile in LA the outfield is(L-R) Young, Kemp, and Ethier. In Vegas it is Pierre, Repko and Jones. I have promised a couple of important observations about the D's. However, I wont make these until they become statistically significant, at the risk that they become obvious to others.

34 I predict that Sacramento will give the Lakers a tougher time than San Antonio.

37

Haven't read Galapagos. Sirens makes me cry every time I read it, but I think Breakfast of Champions is my favorite, likely due to the effect it had on me at the time in my life when I first read it.

A question for Bob or any other baseball-reference search wizards. I would just like to get a historical perspective on Matt Kemp. Can you find another player 24 or younger who got 300 PAs one season and hit within 20 points of Kemp's .342/.373/.521, and did not get a full time job the next season? Not injury realted obviously. These are the kind of players teams usually seem to make room for, so I would be pretty surprised if you found more than a couple.

Here is a link to players who were 24 or younger and put up the numbers described in 42
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/rDJT

42

Don't fret. Matt Kemp is leading the team in HRs in a parallel universe as we speak.

43

Good lord. Reading that list makes me want to break something in this universe.

Oh good. Morgan sounds very depressed that the Red Sox are winning. Of course I forget his power to make someone lose. Hope the Sox can win. The sox win!!!!!

I had never heard of Harry Rice until I saw that list.

He was back in the minors at age 33.

43

Vinnie's own childhood hero (Mel Ott) is on the list.

42,43 Not a bad looking bunch of guys, yu must admit.

Questions answered about last week's Office episode:

http://www.officetally.com/lee-and-gene-answer-dinner-party-questions

Q. Why have you turned Jan into a psycho?! In writing this episode, was there ever a point where you thought maybe you're taking her a little too far into crazy territory?
A. We don't think Jan is a psycho the way Javier Bardem is a psycho in "No Country for Old Men." We just think that she's a deeply unhappy woman who has been in psychotherapy for years now. We've mentioned that she's been suing her family members in Cocktails and, remember, this was the episode that was supposed to air right after The Deposition. Basically, Michael cost her seven figures. On top of that, she was a career woman who lived in New York who is now reduced to selling candles in Scranton. Take all that and put it together and you have a recipe for disaster at a dinner party (no pun intended).

Bob, you are amazing. Just looking at the ones who weren't necessarily regulars to start with, Jeff Heath and Dick Wakefield pop out. Wakefield I had never heard of, and it looks like WWII got in his way as he left halfway into his next season and missed the season after that as well, and was never the same. Heath didn't play full time the next season either, but went on to have some other big seasons. Any info on Wakefield or Heath?

43 Hey, what's Heinie Manush doing in that list!

41 To go along with Sirens. Gattaca is one of my favorite favorite movies. It has an engaging soundtrack as well. Have you read Water for Elephants by Gruen? That was great too. Not on the same level as Vonnegut greatness, but definitely a good read.

Heath just went into a slump and he also played on a rather dysfunctional Indians team in 1939 and 1940. Manager Ossie Vitt and his players did not get along well to put it mildly.

In 1940, Heath shared left field with Ben Chapman. Both players had reputations for not being the most understanding people toward African-Americans. Chapman used racial slurs to taunt Jackie Robinson in 1947 when he was serving as manager of the Phillies.

Heath was on the St. Louis Browns in 1947 when Willard Brown, one of the first two African-Americans on the Browns, hit an inside-the-park home run using Heath's bat. Reportedly, Heath shattered the bat in the dugout in disgust.

Wakefield's career was interrupted by WWII.

37 So long since I was a Vonnegut reader.But I will try to review and disagree. As Kurt would.

Kurt Vonnegut Thoughts makes me want to add some doodles in the margins here, but alas technology won't allow it.

I, too, was disappointed by Galapagos, and love Breakfast of Champions and Sirens. Of his later books, I enjoyed Hocus Pocus the most.

--

Speaking of Joe Morgan, FJM's piece casting suspicion as to whether in fact that was Joe Morgan himself hosting the JM chat on ESPN recently, is priceless. And makes me doubt it, too.

I know I used profanity with the "A" word, but does the profanity rule count when you're quoting a Great American Novelist?

Broxton looks unstoppable lately. He's in line for a serious payday in arb (at least $2 million).

57
You should have used " " then.

56 Nostalgia. I want to read
58 Yes indeed. but imagine the money he could ask for if he stayed a starter. I think 2 mil might do it.

I think, going forward, whenever Pierre starts over Kemp we can just say, "So it goes..." and leave it at that.

Since we're talking Vonnegut, what Torre needs is a vin-dit toward Kempism.

Taylor King decided to transfer to Villanova.

61 Amen my Bay Area brother! I'm doing that from now on. I, SB, tired teacher, loyal Dodger fan, dizzy from grading papers, bleary-eyed from staring at the TV and the laptop for my DT time after grading said papers, do hereby swear--I said swear dammit!--not to say anything about said topic that has been tilled to death except to say, "So it goes..."

I've always said Icaros was terribly bright. Come summer, we're going to hit a few restaurants in San Francisco. He does not know this. But I digress...

It's 9:47pm PST and I've gotta be up at 4:30am to finish grading. It's beddy-bye time.

"Momma's, don't let your babies grow up to be teachers... they'll just get some pink slips and lots of pay cuts! Teach 'em to be Doctors and Lawyers and such!...

(singing his way to bed, wife and child gaping in disbelief...)

61 Works for me.

63 At least he should be able to find a good cheesesteak there.

If anyone is interested in joining me at the game tomorrow and perhaps having an mini DodgerThoughts night, I have 7 extra tickets. We will be in Reserved, 31, Rows L & M. I will be coming from work so I wont be there until 6:30-6:45 depending on traffic. We can meet at the gate.

Tickets are free and the best part you can meet me!

If you are interested, email me at amurvine at hotmail dot com.

This is a first come first served offer. All that I ask is no booing (even jones and pierre, and no beachballs)

64

Sounds like a plan. How do you feel about all-you-can-eat Brazilian churrascarias? There's a good one in Hayes Valley.

Even better with a pitcher of sangria.

Torre has got to play Kemp. If he plays well, you win, and if he doesn't have the discipline to avoid sliders low and away, it's better to know that sooner than later.

It's still April, but Colletti's job is riding on Andruw. It's great that Colletti hasn't traded the primo prospects, but you can't sign Pierre and a washed up Jones and keep your job.

We're in way better shape than last year at this time. Loney and Ethier are regulars, along with Martin.

Pierre is no longer guaranteed to play every day.

DeWitt is possibly our new 3rd baseman.

Billingsley is a starter. Kershaw will be here after the all-star break.

Furcal is healthy.

Kemp will play plenty, and should win back his starting job given a fair chance.

Pierre may be traded - there's always the possibility he's being showcased for a trade.

Torre is an upgrade over Little.

This is likely Colletti's last year, unless we go to the World Series.

And its only April. Relax.

Wow I didn't realize the name "Slappy McPopup" was world famous:

"Pierre is very unpopular among Dodgers fans, who frequently refer to him on various blogs as Slappy McPopup."

http://tinyurl.com/58e6dz

WRT 42 & 43 -

http://6-4-2.blogspot.com/2008/04/theyre-trying-to-get-me-to-swear-and.html

Fine work, by the way, Bob.

Jon, but aren't you glad that upon further review, you upgraded one Brian Bannister? He's making us look like the genius now. Hopefully, it won't be long until you upgrade Shields as well. Oh, and Niemann goes 6 and gives up one.

71
I went with Slappy McDribblers for my fantasy team.

Colletti is under the microscope..

http://www.presstelegram.com/moresports/ci_8915575

In a move that won't surprise a person on Earth. Kevin Love is entering the draft.

Wallet Theft Update

Since I know the guy from playing ball with him almost daily, I waited for him at the campus rec today...from 10am to 130pm and then coming back again at 530pm.

Around 8pm....the guy finally shows up!

I confront him, giving him about 50 chances to fess up, give me my wallet back and call everything square. The guy continues to deny, act sketchy, and change its and pieces of his story around. Then, I just knew he was lying and he was the one who took it. He even accused me of racial profiling! "There are tons of black guys in here! etc etc etc etc".

Anyways, I gave up and told him okay, police are coming. Police came, separated us and after 20-30 mins, he finally confessed...He also confessed to stealing another wallet 3 days earlier and buying something expensive at Blockbuster with it as well.

So he's pretty much screwed, with credit card fraud approaching close to 1 grand. He still had my wallet in the car so I got everything back that was in it except my money (only around 30 bucks).

So thats my story for the day. I rule.

Seriously guys, Tucson has been kicking my ass this year in terms of unfortunate, crappy events.

78
At least you won this one, for the most part.

79

Yea, I'm 2 for 3 this semester.

-won parking ticket
-loss on car window smashes and ipod theft
-won on wallet theft

77 You definitely rule.

77 Well done. Make sure you remind him at some point that you gave him umpteen chances to own up and make restitution without involving the police.

80
Man, I hate when drunk idiots just screw with cars. My former roommates still live in IV and they got their side view mirrors bashed off. And then it happened to them again.

What would it take to get a "Play Matt Kemp!" chant going? I'd have thought a large sign or sheet, maybe a megaphone(?), and about 20 or so people starting it off. It could become contagious.

84
That is what I was proposing earlier. We need to start a campaign.

Well done. Make sure you remind him at some point that you gave him umpteen chances to own up and make restitution without involving the police.

After they put him in the back of the police car, he asked if he could talk to me before they take him off.

So he tries to apologize to me and is like, "The reason I came back to the rec tonight was to give you back your wallet."

And I'm just like, uhh no you didn't. I gave you sooo many chances to give it back and he kept lying through your teeth.

And he basically agreed by saying, "Yeah, you're right...I wasn't going to give it back."

Retarded guy.

43 - Kemp has the lowest OBP and OPS on that list. Which I note only because I noticed.

75
God, reading that article really brings home what a bonehead GM Colletti has been.

Now there's no room for Kemp to play every day because we have Pierre (for three more seasons after this one!) and an over-the-hill Andruw Jones. Not to even mention many of his other dumb and expensive signings.

I wonder what would have happened differently if we had just stuck with Depo?

The Keisser article is devastating. In his telling, Keisser's record is Furcal and oops oops oops oops oops oops oops oops and oops. The other good thing Colletti did -- not trading Kemp, Kershaw and LaRoche -- goes unmentioned, but it's a negative virtue at best anyway. Colletti's problem is not just that he might've traded those future stars, it's that he wouldn't have gotten enough back.

Too bad nobody reads Keisser's paper anymore.

He's usually one of the more traditionalist baseball columnists, too. The kind of guy who usually thinks of players like Pierre as "sparkplugs" and "catalysts," and defers to proven veterans like Garciaparra whose "record speaks for itself." I sense he's lost patience with that approach.

Ironically, Pierre probably won't cost Colletti his job. Jones will.

What's the leverage the team has over Jones in terms of his weight? Obviously, they could bench him and say go join Jennie Craig if you want another start. But there's no way they could use this to void his contract or suspend him without pay, I assume?

I tend to believe he's "pressing," to use the Torre-approved cliche, and that he'll eventually start hitting for power. But the weight will affect his defense and speed, thus affecting his value, and it shouldn't be tolerated.

God knows, it's hard to lose weight. I find it difficult anyway, and I'm now having to redouble my efforts for health reasons. But if I'm Andruw Jones, I've got nothing to do most days except train my body, and I could afford to hire a chef to whip me up healthy, delicious meals. I suspect I'd lose my load pretty quickly if I had his options.

89 "In his telling, Colletti's record is Furcal and oops oops oops oops oops oops oops oops and oops.:

Oops. Now fixed.

Keisser may have to re-visit his evaluation of Edwin Jackson soon.

87 I noticed that too.

88 I guess Detroit's GM should be fired too if they don't win since his big acquisition as got into the tank after hitting a HR on Opening Day and the pitcher he got in the same deal just got hurt.

Or what about Boston re-signing Schilling against their team doctor's recommendation.

Or the Yankees having no depth in their farm system for when some of their older position players get a few ouchies.

I am not even going to qualify this by saying that I want Kemp to play everyday too, but this negativity about Pierre has got to stop, he was never going to be a 4th outfielder in the normal sense, we may have just hit a stretch in the schedule where he started more than the plan.

We'll see what happens and I will continue to root for the name in the front of the uniforms not the ones on the back.

I always thought that was what being a fan of a team was about, this is after all Dodger Thoughts.

I thought it was intersting how he insinuated that the McCourt's went over the head of Ned to hire Joe. Like it was common knowledge.

75 >> Colletti wanted to retain Grady Little. Then Torre became available and the McCourts made the move over his head. <<

Or what jasonungar07 said. :-)

92
I think people have just become fed up with seeing lesser players getting playing time, which I completely understand. I think we all just have to work on dealing with that frustration in a better way.

Like making voodoo dolls.

75 Joe Torre as a GM!? The horror...

Ivan De Jesus and Carlos Santana's are walking machines.

92 Don't worry about me. I love the Dodgers and am weary of the negativity. When I see JP's name in the lineup I flinch twice: Once because he's playing, and a second time because I know DT is going to be infected by a strain of humorless misery and woe.

But I encounter every game hopeful that each player will outdo themselves and that Torre's decisions will prove to be wise ones. And I refuse to believe that Torre doesn't see Kemp's talent and doesn't plan to fully exploit it as the season unfolds.

As I said the other day, I think Torre now is experimenting. He says he put Kuo in the rotation because he was "curious," which reinforced my point, at least for me. He is still putting the puzzle together, and he won't be rushed, not even by the exigencies of a pennant race. Several of his division-winning Yankee teams started slowly; all the talk of Joe getting fired each year by George came in May and June, and then things would turn around. Colletti has surely left him with some big problems, nearly $30 million worth of possibly bad players he has to deal with in the outfield alone. But as the Dodgers languish around .500, I think you'll see a purely merit-based lineup on most days, starting sometime next month. By the end of the year, I predict Ethier will have gotten the most starts, followed by Kemp, then Jones, then Pierre. Unless the way they play forces him to do otherwise.

Bob Keisser, the author of Who's-to-say-bermetrics:

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/287155.html

I see no reason to believe that Keisser knows what he's talking about. I think Colletti's head is on the chopping block, too, but the rest of it looks made up.

I think Colletti's head is on the chopping block

I think Colletti's head is a block.

Colletti's head went on the block the moment McCourt hired the celebrity manager. He won't let Torre take any blame if the LADs miss the playoffs again.

103
It is interesting to note that Torre gets paid roughly 5.5 times as much as Ned.

75.

"What the Dodgers have going for them in 2008 is the same promise they had last season, that the kids in the lineup - Russell Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp, Ethier, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, and Adam LaRoche when he's healthy - will get better, and that they'll eventually gel with Derek Lowe and Jeff Kent."

Between that and the Edwin Jackson struggling line, I don't think Keisser knows what he's writing about.

Seems to me that deciding which players to play is less than 5.5 times as important as deciding which players to acquire in the first place.

That being said, however, deciding which players to play is obviously important because the wrong players can (and often are) chosen.

104 - But that was a paycut from being the Yankees manager. It's all about oppurtunity cost.

Joe Torre's oppurtunity cost would be managing the Reds, and the Dodgers' oppurtunity cost would be hiring former Dodger player and Giants manager Dusty Baker. Not sending Chad Billingsley to an early grave is worth $5.5 million.

Ned Colletti's replacement would be available for about his salary, wouldn't do much worse, and Colletti's next best oppurtunity would probably be with someone like the Pirates if the owner gets stupid and gives up on Huntington next year.

107
I think the Dodgers had plenty of options other than Dusty. Their options were only limited to the extent that they wanted a "big name" manager.

105 It was a poorly-written article. He also said that "Andrew Jones" was too fat.

There's no "e" in Andruw Jones,
At least not where you'd think

Apparently, the P-T can't hire anyone to edit Bob Keisser's story to spell Andruw Jones' first name correctly.

111
Maybe they can contract out the work to one of the new JoeChat editor interns.

87 Bob used Kemps numbers as the minimum in his parameter search, so yes, Kemp is on the low end of all of them. I am working on trying to find players on either side of Kemp who didn't earn a full time job. I will update here after work.

The article strikes me as guesswork--no one has taken him aside with information. His lack of familiarity with the team shows. And yet, I think the basic supposition makes sense. We have folks even on DT who are ready to give Torre full credit for those Yankee pennants. If that's the case, what must a novice like McCourt think? No, losing is not going to be the celebrity manager's fault.

113
I was just following orders.

One of Kemp's comparables, Alex Johnson, hit .303/.345/.495 in 109 at bats in his rookie year, then got only 262 the next year.

Norihiro Nakamura can be a free agent again after this season!

http://www.japanball.com/news.phtml?id=11927

116
Alex Johnson, now there was an attitude problem.

That man had serious psychological problems.

Torre: "We've got to be more conscious offensively and score some runs."

More conscious offensively...?

I suggest that the Dodgers become proactive and develop a new paradigm for run scoring too.

What's wrong with the current pierradigm?

119

I think that means scoring runs without using power. If you pay very close attention you can win with dribblers past the infield.

2008

David Ortiz: .070/.231/.140
Andruw Jones: .100/.217/.125

2007

David Ortiz: .332/.445/.621/1.066
Andruw Jones: .222/.311/.413/.724

I saw David Ortiz at the buffet with Miguel Cabrera and Mo Vaughn.

92--I'm convinced more and more that BHSportsguy will never say anything that goes against Dodger management.

I am not even going to qualify this by saying that I want Kemp to play everyday too, but this negativity about Pierre has got to stop, he was never going to be a 4th outfielder in the normal sense, we may have just hit a stretch in the schedule where he started more than the plan.

But, he should be a 4th OF'er.
And its Dodger management's fault that he's not being treated like a normal 4th OFer--whether by Torre or Colletti.

I know you try to defend Dodger management at every turn, but this Pierre over Kemp situation is not a winning battle.

We all root for the Dodgers here, but not all of us are mindless drones that will just root for anything the Dodgers throw out there. If they arent putting their best players on the field, then yes I think the negativity should grow.

Enders/Shimmin (sounds like a Presidential Ticket..)---> maybe they have it right with being D-bax fans for a season until the McCourt/Colletti/Torre get their stuff straightened out.

For those wanting Ned gone, who do you think Frank will put in his place? I think right now I have more faith in Ned than I do in Frank hiring his replacement. We should be fairly confident that Ned is sold on the kids, but will his replacement? I don't want to go thru the whole "gotta make a spash" phase of a new GM. Every GM makes bad free agent signings. Most here thought the Schmidt and Jones signings were good at the time. I did. Pierre is by far his biggest mistake. The good thing about Ned is he seems to learn from his mistakes. Be carefull what you wish for. Now of course if the replacement was Logan White, then that would be ok. And if it isn't then that just might be the last straw for Logan as he looks for a GM job elsewhere.

72 - Matt Welch stopped by last night and made the point that Bob's search in 43 may be slightly misleading, and offered this as perhaps less so:

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/jCSY

Still a lot of Hall of Famer types in there, but also more misses.

Perhaps it's just me, but I'm getting the impression that Torre doesn't realize the reason his Yankee teams scored so many runs was that they had a bunch of sluggers who got on base an awful lot and hit the ball a long way.

128--No doubt that Matt Kemp is far from a sure thing. He doesnt walk, and if he doesnt learn how to he'll be another Juan Encarnacion with slight more power.

However, he's still easily one of the 3 best OF'ers on the team, and in a lineup devoid of much power--he has to be in there.

The Dodgers can probably beat the Padres/Giants playing "smart" ball bc those two offenses arent very good, but against the Rockies, D-bax, Cubs, Mets, Braves you have to believe they'll need their best offensive lineup out there.

92 - I am not even going to qualify this by saying that I want Kemp to play everyday too, but this negativity about Pierre has got to stop, he was never going to be a 4th outfielder in the normal sense, we may have just hit a stretch in the schedule where he started more than the plan.

That is simply the most ridiculous thing I have ever read in these parts. So, you don't care whether the team wins or loses, you only care about the uniform, is that it? Go, then, and cheer for the Giants, or the Pirates, or some other dysfunctional team whose laundry is haunted by the ghosts of once-good players. The rest of us reserve the right — and duty, I might add, as paying customers — to stock up on and use every rotten tomato we can lay our hands on at a management so clearly unseeing as to confuse effect (Joe Torre) with cause (a star-studded roster that won multiple postseason berths including three World Series titles, and two other appearances besides, not to mention winning the division nearly every year in that span).

I think it's silly to decide not to root for the Dodgers. I've you've put up with Steve Sax throwing away the ball, Mike Davis and John Shelby playing major roles, Pedro Martinez and Mike Piazza being traded ... surely you can put up with Pierre in the outfield sometimes. The '88 team had a bunch of weak hitters, and it was still fun rooting for them when they won it all.

I had to put up with a lot of nonsense from the Angels before they finally got it right, and it was sweet when it happened. It was also sweet to be able to know that I had never abandoned the team and was not just jumping on the bandwagon at the good moments.

It is especially silly to be getting so upset when it is April 14th. There is so much more baseball to come.

129 - Joe Torre is being politic. He is not stupid and first and foremost he is a politician, as befit his position in the Bronx. It is for this reason I say that the Dodgers are in harm's way as a franchise so long as Frank McCourt runs the circus, because political considerations (making McCourt look good by taking the route of least apparent risk, as measured by the count of once-great stars on the roster) will supersede actual winning.

I came into the year expecting Pierre to start 162 games, so any less than that makes me happy. I can't really blame Torre since any other manager would do the same thing.

131 I think the point is that we root for the Dodgers no matter what our disagreements may be with how the team is run, and we have seen enough that we don't need to razz them at every single misstep.

I've had to skip so many comments lately I've become a Virtolity Dodger. :-)

128
Again, I wasn't trying to mislead. I was just following the parameters someone gave me.

I think the point is that we root for the Dodgers no matter what our disagreements may be with how the team is run

I've reached a point in my life/fandom where "agreeing with how the team is run" has become a necessary condition for me to root for the team.

131 The Dodgers: Loathe it or Leave it?

101 I use to be a Ned supporter (I think I still am) but when he gets guys like Pierre & Loaiza it just makes it dificult to root for him, its like you ask your self, do you even know baseball!!

137 My fandom is much less logical. I can no more throw away the team than I could throw away one of my kids when they do something stupid.

140
I was like that as a kid, but I'm not any more.

126 calling someone a mindless drone just because they don't whine and complain at every turn is a bit much. We all have different oppinions. I imagine the negative or positive outlooks extend beyond just the Dodgers. I'm sure BH is a pretty enjoyable person to be arround. For the other "cup is empty" crowd, it must really suck living in a world where your the only one who is right.

Go ahead and become D'backs fans, just don't come back.

When I see JP's name in the lineup I flinch twice: Once because he's playing, and a second time because I know DT is going to be infected by a strain of humorless misery and woe.

I do, too.

Pretty soon, we're gonna start fighting over trash can locations.

Paul Moore: It must be nice to always believe you know better, to always think you're the smartest person in the room.
Jane Craig: No. It's awful.

126 Enders/Shimmin (sounds like a Presidential Ticket..)---> maybe they have it right with being D-bax fans for a season until the McCourt/Colletti/Torre get their stuff straightened out.

That's just dumb. Who ditches a lifetime of allegiance to one team for a one-year dalliance with another team? If your fanhood is that fickle, then what's the point of following sports at all?

I'm pretty sure that the Enders/Shimmin/D-Backs thing is tongue-in-cheek. At least I hope it is.

That is simply the most ridiculous thing I have ever read in these parts. So, you don't care whether the team wins or loses, you only care about the uniform, is that it? how many times have I read on this blog that people didn't want the dodgers to win for fear that Ned would keep his job. The other stupid statement is that it doesn't matter if the Dodgers win or lose as long as player x is playing. I've heard both types of statements here a whole lot.

Ahh, the Thermidorian Reaction is upon us!

141 Maybe I'm just getting old, but I want the Dodgers to succeed the same way I want my kids to ultimately "succeed". They may not all become the equivalent of a slugging superstar in their careers, but if they find a way to make the world a better place and if they are happy with what they do, then I'll be thrilled. As they get older, I won't be able to control their actions, so they'll have to live and learn from their mistakes.

In the same way, the Dodgers are free to run the team the way they want. I won't yell at them when they make mistakes, but I'll encourage them to do the right thing. In the end, what matters is how they end up, and how much fun we've had along the way.

147 et. al

I think everyone here wants the D's to win, though there is some frustration boiling over. With 1 post season win since '88 this happens. Let's face it- its a very disappointing franchise right now given the payroll and market- the results ought to be better. If the team was a public company the shareholders would be upset. Same thing is happening with the fans…. Its been a pretty tough skid and waiting/hoping for better next year is getting old.

I just turned 40, so I'm the one who's supposed to be having a mid-life crisis. But you don't see me running around with that young Diamondbacks team.

149 nice comments. I agree.

Maybe we just all need counseling.

Maybe we just all need counseling

Or an outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers and baseball.

Just for the record, I root for the Dodgers every game, no matter who's playing. If I can root for Strawberry, it's not hard relatively to hope that JP scores. But it just annoys me to distraction that they last won the pennant when I was 29 holding a baby, and now I'm fifty with a 21 year old son.

Or an outlet for dealing psychologically with the Los Angeles Dodgers and baseball.

I see what you did there.

maybe I'm just more patient than the typical fan. I'm a life long Raider fan. There have been many ups and downs along the way. Sure there have more downs than ups lately, but I'll be there when next "up" arrives. These are just games after all.

re:149, Your analogy is certainly valid, yet I see the Dodgers as a young team with potential, which is akin to watching your young child make mistakes. It's very hard to resist parenting and parenting and parenting because you know there's so much potential still.

If these were all veterans and our hope was still in the minor leagues, then yeah, I don't think we'd care as much how many bad choices were made. We'd know the roster and decision-makers would be out the door soon. Unfortunately our team is like a 12-year old. We can't ignore what they're doing very easily at this stage.

147 - how many times have I read on this blog that people didn't want the dodgers to win for fear that Ned would keep his job.

I hope Ned loses his job, but I certainly don't want the Dodgers to lose; unfortunately, both likely need to occur. His decision-making has been largely indefensible.

Perhaps if the correct choices didn't seem so obvious and simple to implement...

Everyone becomes frustrated by office politics.

Couldn't the Dodgers come up with the money for this guy a couple years ago? How much could the kids learn from Maddux?

Andruw needs to hit the gym and Pierre-Kemp-Ethier outfield looks good now.

160 If took Maddux, moved him from Petco to Dodger Stadium and put the Padres defense behind him, he'd have an ERA around 4.60. If you put the Dodgers defense behind him, it would be closer to five.

There's very little seperating Maddux from Loaiza at this point.

I tried to sift through all the comments from the weekend, so I apologize is this was brought up:

How can Simers write an article a for a major publication and get away with using the word "Tubbo" to describe Jones? That is some ridiculously bad writing for a "professional" journalist.

Hilarious

151 that is

162 I prefer 'fattey' - with the spelling mistake.

Hello all,

Here's some fun this morning... the plight of the Giants fan:

http://www.forbes.com/2008/04/08/baseball-san-francisco-biz-sports_cx_mw_0408giants.html

Here's something I STRONGLY disagree with

The rivalry between San Francisco and Los Angeles isn't serious because we don't take them seriously.

Are you KIDDING? If anything it's Los Angeles not taking SF seriously. Or, in other words, Giants fans hate the Dodgers much more than Dodgers fans hate the Giants.

When BH writes in 92 that "this negativity about Juan Pierre has to stop" (my emphasis), I read that as, "this overwhelming negativity about Juan Pierre that leads to people rending their garments has to stop. And I couldn't agree more. I don't think BH is trying to censor discussion; I think he's trying to suggest having a bigger picture about things.

You're welcome to disagree with him, you're welcome to go root for another team for a day or a year or the rest of your life, but his statement is far from ridiculous, and it's far less ridiculous than some of the things I've read here in the past several days. This is hardly the worst time to be a Dodger fan – just as one example, I'll take the current angst vs. the Kevin Malone era any day of the week.

BH defends Dodger management extensively, although in many cases he's not necessarily defending them as far as offering a logic to their actions that some might not see. It's not always his logic – he's made it clear that he disagrees with the management at times - but that doesn't mean it isn't useful to have it pointed out. In either case, I don't always agree with him – just for example, regarding 92 , I still maintain that if Kemp and Jones had started out hot, Pierre could easily become a fourth outfielder in the normal sense. But anyone who is calling him a blanket apologist is not only steamrolling one of the most valuable members of this community, they're flat-out missing what he's trying to say.

Sunday, I made a post about Pierre and Kemp. One post, with no further comment. It was the second time in a week I had written about Pierre and Kemp – Friday night, I had a friendly debate with Eric Enders about whether Kemp should have pinch-hit for Pierre. That's all. There are some people here who are making the same critique over and over again – angrily, snidely, sometimes rudely – and it's miserable when it happens. I don't want to stifle the conversation here in the slightest, but it's worse when the conversation itself becomes stifling. The repetition is wearing people out.

I think the Pierre situation is a big deal. It's not so big that it has to be discussed as much as it has. There is more to the Dodgers than Juan Pierre.

I am just thankful Nomar didnt hit .280 with 14hr and 80rbi last year or he would most likely be our firstbaseman this year.

I keep trying to think of other things to post about, yet find myself thinking that we are ONE move away from simply fielding our best team and letting the chips fall where they may. It's so hard to not gravitate towards that one pimple.

I am happy to see Billz back to his dominant self. Kent does look like a #6 hitter, not a cleanup guy.

167 nicely put, thanks.

Here's an interesting thought. Every Dodger position player (assuming LaRoche performs on par with what we expect him to) is JUUUUST good enough to make the trading deadline this year seem unexciting. I can't imagine the Dodgers trading for any position player - certainly not a long-term star 3B now that L.A. has seen DeWitt's potential, and LaRoche's hitting skills.

So unless we have a big injury, or Penny falls off dramatically, this is our team from start to finish. LaRoche and Kershaw may be our inexpensive yet standings-impacting summer imports, and that's exciting.

171
I'd be surprised if Ned doesn't acquire bullpen "help" at some point during the season.

I was going to say "What Daniel said, and what BH said, and so on" but now I'll just say, "What Jon said above" and leave it at that.

166 As a San Franciscan Dodger fan, I agree with ya.

Here's something off subject:

Clearly, it's not just the world of sportswriting that is seeing some of the "old school attacks the idea of the blogosphere" mentality. An article by AO Scott on Roger Ebert took some misguided potshots, like this one:
"...if the future looked grim back in 1990 — when Entertainment Weekly's letter grades and the proliferation of Siskel and Ebert knockoffs seemed to threaten the integrity of the critical enterprise — what must it look like now that the Internet is gobbling up all discourse?"

I think if anything the internet is giving us too much discourse, but then Scott writes:
"If you spend time prowling the blogs, you may discover that the problem is not a shortage of criticism but a glut: an endless, sometimes bracing, sometimes vexing barrage of deep polemic, passionate analysis and fierce contention reflecting nearly every possible permutation of taste and sensibility."

bullpen help? But we have CHAN HO PARK baby! =) Kemp for Huston Street, done.

175 - couldn't we just get Gagne back?

175 Something like DeJesus and DeWitt (or someone equivelant) for Street wouldn't be too bad. I know the A's really like DeJesus.

Im afraid ala Sele, Hendrickson etc... we will use Park until his ERA reverts to his 5-6 range mean.

172 -- I don't see it, barring injury of course. That is just looking at the past and extrapolating into the future. Troncoso and Proctor's ERA's look unsightly right now but I have every confidence they will get a lot better. We have a lot of guys in the minors who look they they may force their way up, staring with Brazoban. No, the bullpen's covered. I really don't think there is going to be a trade this season.

178 So? Let's ride Park like we rode Sele, and then when he reverts back to mean there's some young options out there like, you know, McDonald, The Minotaur, plus Stults, Meloan, and so on.

Park is already being used in non Erickson situations, which is concerning me.

177 -- That would be terrible, actually. A team with our relief arms has no businesss trading for Street or any other closer. I am surprised you would even suggest it, since trading away "proven closers" to gullible GM's is Sabermetrics 101. And again, I think you are eager to get rid of DeWitt to keep him out of LaRoche's way.

180

If he comes into 1-2 run games it will be a pretty steep toll by the time his ERA hits 5.
What is the point? Has something changed that I dont know about that gives us a reason to think he may not be the same pitcher who keeps getting released ?

182 Street isn't a "proven closer" he's just a very good reliever. I don't care how many saves the guy has, I care that he has a 4:1 strike out to walk in his career.

DeWitt was just the first person I thought of that had the value I wanted. Both players have better options in front of them, so why not use them for something?

183 Some pitchers just seem to pitch better for one specific team than any other. We had that with Gio Carrara, too. Every time he came to LA he was pretty solid; everywhere else he was terrible. Maybe Chan Ho is one of those guys. Pitching in NL West parks helps, too, of course. Maybe he'll revert to expectation on the first road trip east. But I'm pleased with how he's looked so far. He's already been valuable. And as I said, when it becomes clear that he's not valuable, the Dodgers have plenty of in-house options.

161--Are you saying that the Padre defense is really that much better than the Dodgers?

Thats surpising.
Which positions do the Padres have a significant edge defensively?

186 I left out the "last year" part. The Padre's defensive efficency was about 1.5% better than the Dodgers.

184 -- You can get a "very good reliever" cheap, or for nothing at all, if you know what you are doing. Street's status as a "proven closer" inflates his trade value beyond what any team should pay for him, and the fact that he hasn't been traded yet is a good indication that no team has any interest in paying Beane's price for him --yet. If a team is going to get desperate and pay that price, it better not be us, and as I say, with all our arms, I am sure it won't be us.

Neither DeJesus nor DeWitt are expendable NOW. The future of both our SS position and 3B position are very much up in the air, with Furcal's pending free agency and LaRoche's failure to stay healthy and impress in the big leagues. With Abreu's woes, Hu may very well be our future at 2B, so I am not even sure he is in the SS picture anymore.

To post something positive: I think it's good that Torre has replaced Loiaza in the rotation with Kuo. It's obvious that Torre is his own man, with his own mind. You can't say that about the previous dugout administration. I like Torre. There's just this weird organizational mental block about Kemp. Also, I think Pierre played pretty well this weekend, so I can see what Torre is saying about him. If that's the case, though, then Kemp should be in CF and we need to bench Jones, who is behaving and speaking very strangely and arrogantly.

185

Yea, maybe so- Im not banking on the Dodger effect though. Even though he has looked ok so far this year hitters are: 0.292/0.346/0.458 against him so even if he "keeps it up" will get ugly before long.

It's obvious that Torre is his own man, with his own mind. You can't say that about the previous dugout administration

I don't see where all this "Grittle was a yes-man, but Torre is his own man" mentality is coming from.

Maybe I'm forgetting, but what evidence do we have that Grittle yearned to play a certain set of players but felt coerced to play a certain other set of players instead?

186
According to Baseball Prospectus' Defensive Efficiency, the Padres are ranked 5th in MLB (.706) while the Dodgers are 20th (.691).

I'm not sure how that translates into runs though.

139 I just remembered, I've said (in the past) I'm on neutral terms with Colletti at the present moment

188--At some point, you have to trade depth for quality. I think that is one of Ned's biggest problems.

I probably wouldnt trade any prospects for middle relief though.

192--Thats rather incredible, because if you just went by what scouts say or the naked eye---the Dodgers would have an edge defensively over the Padres at just about every position except 2nd base and LF (when Pierre plays).

I'm not so sure Hu is better long term than De Jesus.

Scouting reports rate De Jesus' defense as excellent and his plate discipline and on base skills are very above average.

Of course, his complete lack of power is concerning. But wow, does he get on base.

Also, lets talk about Carlos Santana. 11 walks in less than 50 PAs...he is becoming very interesting now.

I agree about Hu and DeJesus. Hu has very limited OBP skills, and he has adequate pop in his bat but nothing mind blowing (for a SS). I think Hu at 2nd is a recipe for diaster offensively. I also think that about Abreu too, but maybe thats just because Kent has spoiled us.

Still, it'd be offensive suicide to to go with two slappies up the middle (if Furcal leaves).

196 -- Santana was really streaky last year, and then there is the question of how will playing catcher wear him down. I remember last year Lucas May looked God-like at the start of the season in the California League, but the demands on a catcher just wore down his offense as the season progressed.

We have to keep Furcal around....

eye balling it as different defensive metrics don't always agree. I'd rate the 8 playing positions as follows.
C: LAD
1B: Even
2B: SD
3B: Even (Kouz vs LaRoche/DeWitt)
SS: SD
LF: LAD (Ethier)
CF: LAD (A.Jones)
RF: LAD (Kemp)

4 edges for the Dodgers and 2 for the Padres. Last year was last year, the Dodgers aren't playing Gonzo in LF, Pierre in CF and Nomar at 3B any more. The Padres also aren't playing Cameron in CF. Just saying.

vr, Xeifrank

188 Where can you find a reliever as good as Street for cheap? You can find high upside arms that might be as good, sure, but there's a lot more risk involved. It's not like I'm recommending Scott Proctor, I'm talking about a guy that has been consistently better than the average relief schmuck.

Almost every position on this team is based on what could be. Getting some kind of stabalizing force is important, especially since we can't count on Saito on more than a year by year basis.

The Dodgers simply don't have that many places where they can easily improve themselves, if getting Street for guys that likely don't have a future with the team (and even if they do, don't have huge ceilings, at least in DeJesus' case) is possible, you should do it.

43,84 - This is because Kemp's numbers were used as the bare minimum for each stat instead of using the requested "within 20 points" asked for in (42). Can we get an updated list with bare minimums updated accordingly? Thanks.

200--You think Khalil is better than Furcal? I'd put them at even.

But Gonzalez may be better than Loney at this stage so I guess it evens out.

The Dodgers definitely aren't inferior to the Padres--at worst the teams are even--but the D'Backs are another story.

202
See 128

201 -- I'll take Broxton (a true power arm) as our closer before Street, thank you, and that says nothing of Saito. I would not give up prospects of any value at all for a guy who would be, in my mind, the third best reliever on our team, especially when we already have other guys qualified to be that #3, even if those guys aren't as good as Street.

199 What is Furcal worth over the next 6 years? What would you pay to sign him to an extension now, before he hits the open market? I would think it would at least be 6 years 16 million per year. Is he worth a 90 million contract? Am I shooting to high? I would guess low end is 6 years 14/year. So we may be looking 80-100 million.

The alternative would be Hu at SS, LaRoache at 3b, and maybe Dewitt/Abreu at 2b. If I had the check book, I'd take Furcal for the next 6 years at 80 mil.

206 I never said anything about making Street the closer. The Dodgers would be better with Street as the number three than with Proctor.

207 - Wow, the emotions on Furcal have really swung back.

I can't imagine giving him a six-year contract extension.

209. I wouldn't. How old is he?
vr, Xei

I would trade Raffy if were out of it at the break. I would let him walk after this year no matter how he performs..

208 -- Yes, I know you appreciate Saito and Broxton enough to rank Street behind them. So how much should we value, in prospects traded, our #3 reliever? Of course Street would be better than Proctor as a #3, but to use economics language, what is the MARGINAL value of Street over and above that of Proctor in the 7th inning? I suggest, not much.

202 Or you could join BR, learn how to do it yourself, and share your findings with us. That would also work. If people have the kindness to take their time to perform a task they were asked to do once, that should be enough.

If you let Furcal go, I'm fine with Hu at short next year, but I wonder who plays second. Management seems down on Abreu, and I look for him to end up in he first circle of Tampa. Bell? DeWitt played some second in the minors, and that might be a way to keep him around.

There is a general sense of downright hatred for Pierre here, and a constant cry for Kemp to permanently start.

I don't care either way, don't care who starts. I just want the Dodgers to have the best chance to win, whoever plays.

It was felt that Grady Little mis-used Kemp; but now that Torre is in charge, it is now felt that Torre is also mis-using Kemp. Two completely different managers, and yet both are deemed as idiots for not utilizing Kemp "correctly." But could both managers be idiots?

Anyone have any tips on viewing Baseball Toaster on a mobile phone? Using my BBerry Pearl (which I am no expert at, as of yet) the comments are numbered, but invisible, when I have jscript and stylesheets enabled. If disabled, there's about 5 minutes worth of text to scroll through before I get to the content.

It would be pretty nice to follow along while at a game, so any advice would be appreciated. Thanks!

212 It's really hard to say. How valuable is it to be able to go to Street instead of Proctor in a close and late situation if Broxton threw the last two days? How many high leverage situations occur in the 7th?

Tony Pena did the majority of his work in the 7th last year and was worth 4.1 wins over replacement according to WXRL. However, you have to consider that most seventh inning guys simply aren't that good, so they wouldn't appear that high on the list in most cases.

If we assume Pena's 4.1 wins is the peak for a guy splitting time between the 7th and the 8th, he'd be worth about 3.1 wins more than Proctor was last year between the Yanks and the Dodgers. This certainly isn't perfect math by any means, Pena threw higher leverage innings than Proctor, but it is somewhat reasonable to assume that the jump from Street to Proctor can be worth up to two wins or so.

I find it funny that the first video to play on the Dodgers website is called "Furcal Shows off his Defense" but it is a video of Martin grounding out to Kouz.

216 - I can read it on my Treo using the regular web browser - don't know about Blackberry.

215 - I'm not saying they are, but sure, they could be. It's just two people buying into Old School valuing of Pierre. It's not that hard to explain.

There is a general sense of downright hatred for Pierre here,

I think you have expressed that incorrectly. I won't speak for everyone else, but I don't hate Pierre, I just prefer that he start less games.
vr, Xei

How about an FA 2B? They can afford one. O. Hudson will be one?

219
Long threads and the BlackBerry don't get along well. You usually can't read the earlier comments.

Also when you submit a comment, the screen doesn't change. You have to hit refresh and then wait for all the comments to reload.

My advice is to only add a comment if it's really interesting about something going on at the game. Or else you will miss a lot just watching the BlackBerry reload.

221. I think that there do seem to be a few people that let their passions about this debate get the better of them. I feel like I would be more frustrated if I weren't so far removed from the Dodgers in Chicago and dealing with so much at work that I haven't had the time to devote to following them as I have in years past.

217. Pena is 4.1 wins over replacement??? I have him at around 1.15 WAR, well below both Broxton and Saito. 4.1 gets him close to Webb. vr, Xei

221 He's a decent person from what I read, and I don't "hate" him at all. I just don't want him starting over Kemp.

225 I was looking at WXRL for that.

216 Download Opera. I have blackberry pearl, and DT works perfectly in Opera on it.

Career BA vs. Zach Duke (Sample sizes not included*)

Pierre: .176
Kemp: .667
Jones: .125
Ethier: .500

*Because the sample sizes are almost always so small in these comparisons that they really don't matter much.

"And now for something completely different"

I read this ....

http://tinyurl.com/5df3uu

"By proclamation of the Commissioner for the second consecutive year, as Major League Baseball celebrates the anniversary of Jackie Robinson breaking its color barrier, any big-league player can wear the late Hall of Famer's famous No. 42 in action when all 30 teams celebrate the occasion on Tuesday."

... and I instantly think of this ....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktYMkxD0Fzc

===============

Am I gonna go to h*ll for this?

215 "But could both managers be idiots?"
Yup. Does either one have a history of getting more out of their team than expected?

229

I'd be extremely surprised if Kemp did not get the start tonight.

D4P, can you vouch for the "level of hatred of SF towards LA" vs the other way around?

Now the Dodgers website has a poll asking how many RBI's Jones will have this year.

just throwing it out there

pierre's VORP 16.2 last year
jones VORP 5.4 last year

i think there is a chance that Jones will be at or even below (hope not) last years performance this year.

i don't know if pierre is the real problem. i think the real problem is your 2 worst OF's are your 2 highest paid OF and are in the 1st and 2nd year of their contracts, it is strictly political.

that'll be my only comment or response on the issue today, just wanted to throw that out there

You know, if the day ever came when the Dodgers did everything right, as an organization, could you imagine how much less entertaining this website could be?

It's a problem I'd like to have, but I just thought of that this morning.

I was at Saturday's game. Great time, great weather, so much fun. Tons of kids wearing Martin jerseys and shirts and I really like Russell. But why why why not sit him when we're up 11-1 after 4 innings and a day game Sunday? Afraid he won't get enough work this year?

D4P, can you vouch for the "level of hatred of SF towards LA" vs the other way around?

Not sure why you're asking me, since I don't live in either of those cities (or even in California).

However, my general impression of sports rivalries is that, when there's a disparity in team success, there's usually more hatred from fans of the less successful team aimed at the more successful team than vice versa.

I've never seen a billboard that said nothing but "Giants Suck" before.

237

Oops, I don't know why, but I thought you did. I must have you confused with someone else. I'm sorry, friend.

207, 209

Don't you think Furcal is one of the few big signings who have actually played BETTER than expected? He was really never right last year- limped the whole way through and still put up numbers that didn't hurt the team (too badly). In 20/20 hindsight (being generous) he should have been shut down till mid-May rather than rushing back. He seems like a players who the offense will sorely miss if/when he is gone. I really enjoy watching him play. I wouldn't sign him to a 6 year/80M deal, but maybe somewhere between that and his current deal?

Logik, did you see my 173 ?

In general, yes, there seems to be more animosity from Giants fans toward the Dodgers and LA in general. Take it from a long time SF resident. Not that there isn't bad behavior towards each from fans of both franchises, mind you, but Giants fans seem to care more about it in general. Right now I think Dodger fans hate the Padres more than they hate the Giants, due to proximity and competition (of course Padre fans hate Dodger fans with even more irrationality than do Giants fans).

235 Don't worry, people will always find something to complain about. Of course, a World Series championship would certainly see a lot less kvetching, but there would still be anxiety about something.

174 - when near illiterates like Harry Knowles can pass himself off as a reviewer, it's no wonder the Internet is held in such low esteem. He can be bought, and has been, which explains the otherwise inexplicable positive reviews he has given some of the godawful Star Wars prequels.

Excuse me, I have to go take a shower now.

I agree, yes, I want Furcal back. Without Kent and Furcal both next year, the middle infield would lack pop and Furcal is a total sparkplug for the offense. A long term contract, 6 years, is out of the question, though. I like the idea of Furcal and Hu, or Furcal and DeJesus but not two rookies or near-rookies up the middle. That spells trouble, at least for awhile.

I'm sorry, friend

No worries. I was born in California, so there's that...

234

2007 WARP3

Pierre 3.7
Kemp 3.9
Ethier 5.9
Jones 5.9

I've lived in both SoCal and NoCal (only 3 years), and it's like night and day. In NoCal they dislike anything to do with SoCal, they call it "La-La-Land". They seem to dislike not only the sports teams, but the people and life-style. As far as the people part, I think you can win them over. People in the Pac-NW also disliked people from SoCal but for different reasons. Both places seemed to unfairly lump in all of SoCal with LA. I had to explain the differences. What tended to calm them down a bit was when I told them that most people from LA are not from LA. vr, Xei

Just throwing this out there... projected 2008 WAR (based on ZIPS Projections).

Jones.... 3.55
Kemp..... 2.58
Ethier... 2.07
Pierre... 0.47

vr, Xeifrank

Id give him 4/$50M... thats probably about the top though.

Furcal has been fun to watch and when healthy a solid player, but not for his money (more a year than Puljos I believe) and not for his next contracts money and length.

237. The real question is how you define successful. Is it on field performance? Financial success of the team? Financial success of the fans? I'm asking because of the disparity in hated between the Cubs and White Sox, even though that White Sox have been somewhat more successful in recent years.

242 - and of course there I go screwing up the verb plurality in that lead sentence. S/b "when a near illiterate like Harry Knowles..."

209 I may be over estimating Furcal. He will be 31 next season, so 6 years is probebly to many years, but when Torii Hunter, who is 2 years older, get 18 mil a year, I don't think Furcal will be to shy of that.

Also, I am not as sold on Hu, Abreu, or Dewitt as many others are. I think their low walk rates will make for some long slumps.

246 That's been exactly my experience, too. Especially the lumping of all of SoCal with LA. They also enjoy making fun of smog and traffic. It's also been my experience that people from SoCal don't have the bitterness towards their California-geographical opposites that NorCal-ians do.

Farewell, Tommy Holmes.

253. Right, it doesn't go the other way around. I knew very little about NoCal (Bay area) when I moved up there, besides a few family trips to SF. I found it to be a nice place, it had it's good and bad, nothing to make too much fun of. Traffic was about as bad as LA, but who can tell the difference between one gridlock vs another gridlock. The problem in the bay area is... the bay. You have to take bridges to get most places. I thought it would rain all the time up there, and actually the weather was pretty nice. I harbor no hard feelings for the Bay area, no matter what they thought of SoCal. I think they were mostly jealous. They want to be the California culture capitol. vr, Xei

So since the Philosopher King showed up and settled everybody down, does that mean we'll have to wait another day (at least) for the 2008 debut of Bob's "crack open each other's heads and feast on the goo inside" reference?

I was sure there would be one in today's comments.

I appreciate Jon's and other kind words. But I also welcome debate on all issues and I also would say that I have disagreed with just about everyone here at one time or another but I respect everyone's point of view.

If I could read through all the tea leaves, smoke signals or whatever other metaphor you want to use, here's how I see the Dodgers viewing their kids, this limited to those on 40-man who are already here or will more than likely be here sometime in the next few months:

Russell Martin: Face of the team, possible captain, probably first to get extension.

Jonathan Broxton: Closer in making, quiet.

Chad Billingsley: Potential No. 2-3 starter, still needs to get lower pitch counts.

Hong-Chih Kuo: Starter if could stay healthy.

Ramon Troncoso: 3rd or 4th MR for now, could go back to AAA at anytime.

James Loney: Everyday 1B for the foreseeable future.

Tony Abreu: Don't know, seems to have health issues, also may be better as utility player.

Chin-Lung Hu: Potential 2B for 2009

Andy LaRoche: Still 3B of future but Dewitt gained when given a chance.

Blake Dewitt: Needs to show more power but proved a lot when given opportunity.

Matt Kemp: Love the ceiling, refinement.

Andre Ether: Has done team could ask in 2008.

Delwyn Young: Doing everything he can to be an asset to the team.

Clayton Kershaw: Make sure this time, do not rush.

Jonathan Meloan: Just want to see if he can start too.

Greg Miller: Needs to step up this year, if he can be consistent and have better command, could still be part of 2008 bullpen.

Why do I bring up his name?

During one of Pierre's at bats or maybe when he was on base, the Dodgervision trivia about Pierre was that he was 4th among active players with 391 or so stolen bases.

So Bob and I (Yes, I got to a game with Bob T., actually he was my guest but that is besides the point), tried to figure out who were the other 3 players.

I thought of Kenny Lofton but Bob said he wasn't on a team right now, same goes for Bonds who was the other name that came up.

Finally Bob pulled up BaseballReference.com and did a search. We realized it was an incorrect bit of trivia, Pierre is the leader among all active players because the 3 names that come up that are active are Bonds, Lofton and Craig Biggio.

I also can report that Field Level has concession islands (Bob's term) which feature onions and relish available via the hand crank, and the restrooms are clean but they no longer feature the one thing that made them memorable.

Tonight's pitcher Zach Duke is left-handed, one would think that Kemp will definitely be in the lineup. If Pierre were to start, we'd probably see Ethier sitting. Keeping in mind small sample sizes, Duke has given up 18 hits in 12-2/3 innings so far this season. His line drive and fly ball rates are up and his ground ball rate is way down. This is probably what has led him to having a .385 BABIP against. He hasn't struck out many batters, but he also hasn't walk that many. Amazingly, with that high line drive and fly ball rate, he hasn't given up any home runs yet. Hopefully, tonight will be the night when Duke gives up his first home run(s) of the season. He is very lucky to have such a low ERA with such a high BABIP and low K rate. I think the Dodgers chances for a win are very high tonight. My simulator has the Dodgers win probablility at 58.3%, whereas LV Hilton has the Dodgers win prob at 62.26%. Go Dodgers!
vr, Xei

Hopefully, tonight will be the night when Duke gives up his first home run(s) of the season

Rule 9 violation!

255 the weather changes at the drop of a hat also (I was there once on a baseball tournament)

I think we should let all of our free agents go after this year. Unless we can get Raffy for 4 years or less, its a bad deal IMO.

Then we could sign Sabathia and have him with Penny, Billz, Kuroda, and Kershaw for next year. That rotation would be nuts. In 2010 we could let Penny walk and put McDonald or Meloan in.

Or you could sign the O-Dog and put him at 2B and put Hu at SS. I think Hu would be kind of a waste at second though.

What I think will actually happen is Ned will sign Raffy for 5-6 years and then sign some lower starter like Sheets or Perez and we'll have the next bad signing on our hands. Hope that doesn't come to fruition though.

I was browsing around SI Vault this morning, and I came across this piece by Jack McCallum from 1990 about the most unbreakable records in sports. Very interesting to read 18 years later.

http://tinyurl.com/4khajq

Barry Bonds and his chemistry set did the most damage to McCallum's list, but other since-broken unbreakables were Lou Gehrig's 2,130, Bob Beamon's 29' 2.5", Walter Payton's 275, and Tom Dempsey's 63 (sort of).

257 Look at that list. Fifteen home-grown players, 14 of which have seen playing time and a fifteenth (CK) who is certain to this year. Fifteen!!! I don't care what anyone says, it's a great time to be a Dodger fan.

Beamon's record was broken? Shows how much I follow track and field nowadays.

Mike Powell broke Beamon's record in 1991, a year after that article came out. He's held the record for almost 17 years now, only six years shy of Beamon.

263

[b]"It can't happen again," says Chicago Bulls guard Michael Jordan, the game's only 100-point candidate right now. "Today's defenses are too complicated," he says. "A team simply wouldn't let you score that many. Not even close to it."[b]

I wonder if 81 is "close" to 100.

267. To be fair, defensive rules changed substantially to allow more scoring between the time that article came out and Kobe's 81 point game.

I'm still counting on NoCal DT Day in early July.

263

... as well as Marino's 48 touchdowns ...
... and Hornung's 176 points in an NFL season

263 - interestingly, the very next year the long jump record fell (and still stands) at 29'4.5".

For the record, I called them "condiment islands."

271 - http://tinyurl.com/7845g

I heard the Dodgers have made "love calls" to Yu Darvish (best young pitcher in Japan and possibly the world).

Dream 2009 rotation:

Kershaw
Billingsley
Penny
Kuroda
Darvish

272 Right, makes more sense.

274 - I imagine such would be called "tampering" by the J-leagues.

267 - To be fair to who? Jordan?

274 Wow. Drool.

256- Also only a matter of time before Jon has to remind us that "DT is not a rubber room."

272

I can see it now ...

Survivor: Condiment Island

274 All of the "love calls" I make start with 976

After that horrible joke is as good as time as any to remind people that I have some free tickets for tonight. Reserve 31 Rows L&M. Email amurvine at hotmail dot com if you are interested. First come first served.

277. Yes to Jordan, his statement was made under a different set of rules and so when you put the statement in context, it's not as laughable as you make it seem in your post.

274 In case anyone else wants to drool:

http://tinyurl.com/69t4tj

Just joining in... can I go back to 189 ?

If it's true that Torre is his own man with his own mind, why is that necessarily a good thing? We had one of those in Jim Tracy, and that didn't work out so well.

Saying he's his own man with his own mind implies some sort of front-office dissention, which is not what the team needs. It may well be that Colletti has no kind of attachment to Loaiza, but picked him up as a medium-bad-case-scenario insurance policy, which is precisely what the guy should be. He's expensive for that, but the team can afford it.

From the evidence of the way he managed in New York -- a highly charged, political atmosphere, if there is one in this sport -- I suspect strongly that the decision to replace Loaiza with Kuo was possibly a group or mutual one, or, at the very least, a topic that was brought up by Torre and signed off upon by Colletti. And that's what you want in a manager -- a guy who'll implement the GM's team, not in a mindless way, but with give and take, input and a real hand in team construction.

284 He's amazing. Unhittable stuff.

It's funny how much chalk he has on his pitching hand, though - I assume that's what all the white powdery stuff is. Not saying he's up to any funny business, it's just unusually noticeable.

283 I don't get how noting Jordan's comments regarding a record is any different than noting other records that were broken, which a handful of other commenters here did. Baseball is different now, football is (probably, I don't watch it) different now, and yes, the NBA as you point out, is different now.

Pointing something out for fun doesn't require a qualifier, and if you think it does, why that one, specifically?

Quote from Ned's interview with the SacBee:

"The chance to be a general manager in major-league baseball and for a franchise as storied as this one, probably as storied as the Giants, is great."

http://www.sacbee.com/100/story/859359.html

This guy needs to go.

288 He's talking to the Sacramento Bee. Ned might be vilified for saying/doing dumb things, but he's just being aware of his audience.

287. Because they were just pointed out as having been broken, nobody took quotes to talk about how impossible those records were to break or come close to except for you.

290 - Haha, alright.

288 That interview was nausea-inducing.

But because I can't seem to resist... 290 The entire article is about how impossible those records were to break.

The chance to be a general manager in major-league baseball and for a franchise as storied as this one, probably as storied as the Giants, is great

Setting aside the Giants issue, I've always gotten the impression that Ned considers himself fortunate (maybe even "lucky") to be a GM, and well he should. I can't imagine that he's anywhere near the top 30 most qualified people in the world to be an MLB GM, not that this criterion is really all that relevant in a practical sense.

So who would have figured Herschel Walker as having multiple personalities?

295

Well, that explains how he was traded for what turned out to be 7 players, right?

294

not that this criterion is really all that relevant in a practical sense.

Precisely. What were Epstein's GM qualifications prior to joining the Red Sox? He had worked as a PR Man for the Padres before being promoted to Director of Baseball Operations (for said Padres).

Bob Keisser and Doug Krikorian are usually always good for laugh. Bob Keisser brings up an interesting point. Ned brought Andruw here because he was a "power" bat. Why is Juan Pierre starting, after Torre said he was a bench player? Was Torre parroting Flanders at that point and changed his mind? Was Ned pushing for Juan to go to the bench in favor of Kemp? Neal (and Neil) may be right, I think Joe may have decided he was the Solitary Man.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIPkpXYtTHk

(Safe for work)

Since Tax Day is nearly upon us, and I assume everyone's done with theirs and could use a laugh, here's Lewis Black:

"If taxes are so important, and taxes are math, how come nobody in the history of this country has taught taxes in a math class? No! Instead they teach you stuff like Geometry which is no help at all. I still can't play pool!"

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0365825/quotes

While I'm still here, I'd like to point out that the media's tooting of the Red Sox's sabermetrics is a little overrated. They still steal bases, play Julio Lugo, and their entire post-curse history is owed to Dave Roberts stealing a base.

Might be the Joe Morgan in me talking, but I thought that was interesting.

Need some help, hope someone here has an answer...I read the site often and appreciate the insights provided, but I rarely participate. I apologize in advance for directing the discussion towards my own agenda.

That said, I live in San Diego and am having Dodger withdrawals. I have Time Warner and am thinking about purchasing the MLB package, then read this on their website. "San Diego Division (including Barstow and DC) is considered inside the Los Angeles market, and MLB requires TWC to black out all Padres, Dodgers and Angel broadcasts. Padres, however are available in SD on Channel 4. This blackout includes the MLB Season Package."

Does this mean even with the package I can't get the Dodgers?

167
What a crock. Giants fans hate the Dodgers so much. Growing up in the Bay Area, I could barely ever wear my Dodger clothes or Laker clothes because of the amount of unnecessary crap I would take. Even friend's dads would start talking crap about the Dodgers to me.

300 Stolen bases aren't bad, just very expensive. If you have the players to run, you should run.

299
I'll be working all day and into the night and I still won't be finished before October.

Still, I can always use a laugh. For another real good one, try the IRS regs.

I hope DeWitt hits like crazy over the next few days. I am not looking forward to Nomar being activated on Friday. Do not need another black hole in the lineup.

302 - Ya mean 166 ... But I feel yer pain.

bp.com's Fantasy writer chimes in on Andruw's troubles ...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7363

"After posting one of the more disappointing lines of 2007 at just .222/.311/.413, Andruw Jones has picked up where he left off with a .105/.209/.132 start to 2008. There are tons of players hitting badly at this point in the season, but Jones sticks out for a few reasons. For one thing, he has only hit 11.5 percent of his batted balls for liners; the league average is closer to 20 percent, and his career rate is 18.1. Even last year he was at 17.2 percent. This can easily even out, since 11.5 percent is just three liners out of 26 batted balls, but it's something to watch.

There are two things that worry me more than his liner rate. Jones' grounder rate is 69.2 percent; he's hitting 3.6 times more grounders than flyballs at the moment, an odd thing for a player who has crossed the 40 percent mark for flyball rate the past three years. He's also striking out in 31.6 percent of his plate appearances, the highest mark he's had since he first came into the league as a 19-year-old rookie. He's never hit for much of an average, so if his bat is slowing to the point where he can't hit for much power, he's not going to be any help at the plate.

The evidence for his bat slowing is sort of muddled with the few numbers we have to look at this early in the year. He's pulling 27 percent of the balls he makes contact with to the left side of the infield, and then another 26 percent of them to left field. Only 16 percent of his batted balls have gone to the right side of the field. Last year, Jones hit 33.4 percent of his batted balls to the left side of the infield for a batting average of .171, so that pull rate is nothing new.

Jones is hitting .304 on fastballs so far this year, but the only place he's killing the ball is right down the middle of the plate and outside; he hasn't been able to do anything effective with inside pitches yet. This makes me think that so far, he's only been hitting mistakes off of pitchers who aren't challenging his bat speed. If that's the case, Jones' line may not jump to the point where he's going to be any help for you at a very deep position. Keep an eye on him and watch for improvement or stasis in his batted-ball data, strikeout rate and pitches hit before doing anything rash."

303 It's possible that this is what you mean, but stolen bases are expensive in two ways:

(1) Players who have speed are seen as valuable and cost mucho dinero on the free agent market. This leaves you fewer dollars to get players who can do things like get on base an awful lot.

(2) The possible gain of a stolen base is often not worth the cost of a caught stealing. One out is much, much more valuable than one base. So if you're going to try to steal, you'd better have a really good shot or it's too expensive.

Of course, the calculus in #2 isn't often that. In the Red Sox' example in 2004, the cost wasn't just one out. If Roberts made it, it was much, much likelier that the Sox would live to see extra innings. If Roberts didn't try (or didn't make it), it was highly likely that the Red Sox would be setting up tee times. Attempting that steal, then, was very likely the right decision.

The fact that it worked out, and famously, is just icing on the cake, if you root for the Red Sox.

302

I worked at a Christian camp in NorCal right after I graduated high school. Being the lone Dodger fan in the entire group, I received endless crap for being true blue, and I never offered any trash talk in return. The trash talk reached its climax one day when a group of 10 year olds walked by, knew I was the Dodger fan on staff, and yelled, "Die Dodger fan". This continued throughout the summer.

The best part was the July 4th game when the Dodgers beat the Giants. We all went to the game, had a tailgate party, and the ride home was very sweet.

King Kaufman covers the Golden Baseball League for Salon.com:

http://tinyurl.com/6k4zyf

Money quote is from the guy who says that the American dream isn't to get a good job, buy a house, raise a family... the American dream is to get paid to play baseball.

I root for these guys. If anyone wants to catch a Long Beach Armada game this year, I'd be up for that.

Perhaps I'm crossing a line here, but all this Pierre/Kemp talk brings me back to the Choi days. I can't even remember anymore who got playing time instead of him (Green maybe?) but I feel like that was a similar situation as far as the overanalysis of playing time. While the GM was probably not the problem in that case, it seems a fair comparison from the fan outrage point of view...although I guess it was perhaps a less widespread opinion. I must admit I'm not too high on Pierre myself, and most of the time I grumble when he comes to the plate. I find I have to explain why to whoever I am with while watching or listening to the game. It usually ends with me giving them the URL to firejoemorgan.com.

Anyway, I guess, as usual, I tend to side with Jon (167 ) on this one.

Sadly, every week I play softball and I recently realized that I am basically Juan Pierre. My main/only asset is speed, I play LF and have a bad arm. Now if I only had his salary.

Dodgers face 3 LHP this week, possibly 4 with Glavine's replacement TBA. What does everybody think the amount of games Kemp plays this week? I'll say 3 games.

Also, growing up in Sacramento (now living in SB) I can attest to the hatred Giants fans have towards Dodger fans. Most of my best friends are giants fans. I will say at least most Giants fans are knowledgeable about the game, unlike Angels' fans. I am still waiting to meet an intelligent Angel fan that didnt just jump on the bandwagon with the rally monkey.

301 Eric Stephen knows this issue but from what I can take from various sites, on MLBTV.com (internet), only live Padre games are blacked out.

On Extra Innings, you are blocked out of all home games for the Dodgers but you do selected Road games.

3 out of 4 starts for Kemp sounds about right. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Jones benched for Pierre in one of these games, too.

Jason Phillips was the Juan Pierre character in the Hee Seop Choi saga.

The Choi saga was one of Dodger Thoughts first holy wars.

Oldtimers remember the days of worrying about Shawn Green's shoulder or if Adrian Beltre should have been resigned. Or if it was OK to boo Hideo Nomo.

315 Ah yes, Jason Phillips. At least he didn't have Pierre's contract...that's probably why I forgot about him.

Thanks Bob.

311

I went back to my old stance this past weekend in softball. The new stance generated a lot more power, but I could never get my timing down. So, I am back to placing my line drives throughout the field, which in retrospect, is much better for slow pitch. A line drive is almost always a double, and if it gets by an outfielder, you got yourself a home run.

What were Epstein's GM qualifications prior to joining the Red Sox? He had worked as a PR Man for the Padres before being promoted to Director of Baseball Operations (for said Padres).

His academic credentials pretty impressive. If NASA and the top Fortune 500 companies hire Ivy Leaguers, and think they are qualified to handle the position--baseball cant be much harder.

I'd like to point out that the media's tooting of the Red Sox's sabermetrics is a little overrated. They still steal bases, play Julio Lugo, and their entire post-curse history is owed to Dave Roberts stealing a base.

I think FireJoeMorgan would have a field day with your quote. How many bases do the Red Sox steal on average? Stealing bases isnt bad, its more that getting caught stealing is bad. As is valuing stolen bases ahead of more important things like OBP and SLG. I dont think the Red Sox play anyone whose only skill is stealing bases.

As for Dave Roberts SB, I think you're really short changing everyone else that helped their team win 90+ games. Sure, in one specific occasion, a stolen base can be quite helpful. But there's a lot more important things that go into making a winning ball club.

I am feeling positively Rumsfeldian about the latest DT holy war, in that I'm starting to feel that you watch the season play out with the team you have, not the team you want.

Perhaps my new child has mellowed me.

Or perhaps I'm too sleepy to be vicious.

You make the call.

315 - Except no one was standing up for Jason Phillips' character. It was more about putting down Choi's ability. For a lot of people, that debate was about choosing the lesser of two evils.

317 I'm just lucky to make contact honestly. I have no power really, and if the ball gets elevated, it's almost always a popup to the pitcher. I pretty much always try to pull the ball past the third baseman, but oftentimes it's a groundball to shortstop. Luckily I can often beat the throw, but if anybody is on base I'm not much of a help. I'm somewhere between Eckstein and Pierre so FJM would have a field day with me.

319 So if we're being Rumsfeldian, we could paraphrase, "Needless to say, the {General Manager} is correct. Whatever it was he said."

I'll never forget the 3HR by Choi game vs Minnesota. Maybe Jones will hit 3 HR by June

322 The abilities of Matt Kemp: known unknown, or unknown unknown?

300 The general public's perception of what "sabremetrics" is and what decisions it should lead to, is necessarily behind the times.

323 If memory serves, he hit 6 against the Twins, then went 0-for-4, then, in essence, lost his job.

I'm sure it was more complicated than that, but not by much.

326. it was all about the "arm angles". :)
vr, Xei

I don't mean to make "too much" of this, but these splits are pretty remarkable.

With bases empty:

Dodgers: .284/.368/.479/.847
Opponents: .218/.275/.301/.577

With runners on:

Dodgers: .214/.283/.289/.572
Opponents: .319/.378/.434/.812

Theo Epstein was being groomed to be GM of the Red Sox. It wasn't like they pulled his resume off of Monster.com.

327 - Not sure why, but a while ago I was reading Choi's Wikipedia page. The arm angles fiasco made its way in there. Someone here wanna take credit for that?

My optimistic side tells me that the following is true:

Torre genuinely named Kemp the starting right fielder because that is what he is, and will be for most of the season. I don't doubt that one reason Kemp doesn't seem too angry is that Torre has told him as much privately. Torre also declared Pierre as a bench player because that too will be the case.

When Kemp started off the first week so terribly, Torre saw this as an opportunity to play Pierre in a few games. This also served to hopefully light a fire under Kemp - much as Kobe's criticism of Andrew lit a fire under him this year, and he developed into a very good center. Kemp certainly saw that facing the pressure to win a starting spot, Ethier went out and did just that.

They also may well be showcasing Pierre for an early season trade.

309 - I never understood trash talk. It sets your personal worth on the exertions of others, and sets you up for abuse later on should things not go so swimmingly for the home team.

310 - drop a line. rlm@scareduck.com.

Perhaps its wear and tear on Andruw?

I sought out all outfielders who had amassed 6,600 plate appearances and 11 seasons in the majors through their age 29 season (as Jones had through 2006).

There were 3 very interesting matches:
Vada Pinson- whose slugging avg. dipped from consistent minimum .450 to .380 beginning in his age 29 season.
Mickey Mantle - played no more than 125 games in a five year stretch from age 30 to 34, before being moved to 1B
Ken Griffey, Jr. - has played in over 140 games only twice since age 29 season ...

Now, Andruw hasn't been injured ... but just maybe his bat has aged?

315 - except that Jason Phillips was signed to be a catcher. At least you can say that Pierre was always thought of as an outfielder. The indignity of the Choi situation was that Phillips wasn't a very good catcher, was demonstrably a worse hitter than Choi, and still got to play ahead of Choi.

333 - bingo.

333
I was surprised to find the other day that Jeff Kent has played only 4 more seasons than Andruw Jones. He's an old 30-year old, to be sure.

328 That's actually encouraging. We gotta expect some regression to the mean on both of those, right?

Maybe the Dodgers could DL him with minor "elderitis" and send him to Vegas for some R&R, some easier pitchers, and the magic waters of a Vegas hot tub. Meanwhile, call up Jason Repko to fill his spot. Repko will then collide with Pierre at some point, and a healed, younger Andruw is called back up to replace an injured Pierre.

Or not.

Actually I think 331 may not be too far off.

337
One would certainly think so.

Completely irrelevant, but the Zocalo podcast featuring Michael Giacchino (composed music for Lost, Alias, The Inredibles and Ratatouille) is an absolute delight.

The part of this that kills me is that we're all saying the same thing, just in different ways. And that the lines over which way each of us decides to deal with what nobody likes (stoical loyalty, Kremlinological conspiracy mongering, or emotional divestment) can make for such a turf war.

The Dodgers aren't my family. They're not my friends. Our association is entirely in my head; to the extent that it stops being fun for me (which, playing Pierre in LF does), I'm going to look for something else. But if you see nobility in sticking with a baseball team through thick and thin, that's alright by me. Not everybody has to be like me; frankly one of me is too many, most of the time.

Rejoice. Line-up for tonight:

Furcal, SS
Ethier, LF
Kemp, RF
Kent, 2B
Loney, 1B
Martin, C
Jones, CF
DeWitt, 3B
Kuroda, P

333

Add Mel Ott and Al Kaline to that list of OFs with at least 11 seasons and 6600 PAs through age-29 season.

Ott started a swift decline (losing 20 points of BA and 100 point of SLG beginning at age 31)
Kaline didn't start to fade until age 33.

Yay! Fingers crossed that this lineup sticks.

(Sorry, that was on DIamond Leung's blog, in case you're wondering. Along with someone's Matt Kemp impersonation from YouTube. Someone who looks kinda like Seth Rogen.)

There is a post on beyondtheboxscore.com that suggests Edwin Jackson's success has been due to BABIP luck. I'm sure he'll regress, but I'm really hoping he has a breakout year.

342 Thats a thing of beauty, I couldn't have written it up better myself.

326 You're right, but I am pretty sure he hit 3 in one game.

331 I would love to believe your assessment, especially because it makes sense of this whole fiasco. However, with NedCo at the helm, its tough to make sense of any of his logic. Torre and Kemp have to have some sort of understanding. At least Kemp isn't sulking in the locker room ala Pierre.

342 AMEN!!!

This has got to be the weirdest situation ever. The guy who has been riding the pine is now batting 3rd. I can't say I understand Torre's thinking this year.

Kemp SIZZLES Zach Duke

346. The two things that stick out after looking at E.Jackson's stats so far this year are his 78% Infield Fly rate and his .192 BABIP against. There's probably a great deal of correlation there, as none of his other numbers seem too out of whack, considering the small sample size stuff you usually see this early in the season.
vr, Xei

PACKRAT! PACKRAT!

331

The thing is, Kemp didn't start off "so terribly." He went 2-15 in his first four games and then was basically benched. Ya, he didnt look great doing it, and 2-15 isn't impressive, but its just 15 at bats. Jeff Kent started out 3-16. We know how badly Russell and Andrew have been doing. If Matt Kemp were truly the starting right fielder, 15 at bats would not lead to him being put on the bench for the better part of the following week and a half.

346

I like using stats as much as the next guy, but you also have to watch the games. There's a reason why Edwin has been successful so far and its not completely based on luck. It really does come down to making really good pitches, which he has been doing. He is living at the knees with all of his pitches and has really challenged the hitters with his stuff. Guys just aren't making solid contact, and to me, thats a product of dominant stuff and decent location. I don't know if his success will continue, but if he throws as he did in his last two starts, his numbers will be a lot better than what people expect.

If you think tempers have been short around here, you ought to read the 2005 trade deadline thread. That was something. Also featured the first post of one Trainwreck.

At the end of the 2005 season, I think I was the only person watching the major league team. Everybody else was watching Jacksonville.

I refused in an attempt to be edgy.

355 Good times, good times:
https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/222302.html

310 - love me an Armada game. I have a friend who's roommate is a RP, Shawn something-or-other.

Anyways, Shawn says that Yeager is trying to coax Fernando into pitching a game. That, would be awesome.

355- That bokonon guy was a real piece of work. Thank Ch-i he's gone.

357

53. fanerman
I now offer my daily grumbling that Jim Tracy should play Hee Seop Choi regularly...

LOL! Thank goodness I got past that and don't grumble daily about this Pierre scandal.

355
Yes, I learned about Rule 1 quite quickly.

354 The stats tell me a 70% popup rate is unsustainable, no matter what you may see out on the field. There are some cases where stats are so out of whack they have to regress, no matter what scouting may tell you.

Love the lineup, not just because Kemp is in there. I also love the batting order. Just about perfect for what we're serving up.

362 Everybody agrees that Jackson's performance is unsustainable. He's not going to finish the season with a 0.64 ERA. The question is whether the inevitable regression to the mean will turn him into a still-good pitcher, or turn him back into the pumpkin version of Edwin Jackson.

358 Re: Armada Thoughts:

I've sent an email to scareduck. You can email me at todd dot kaplan at gmail dot com.

It might take a bit of scheduling for me -- the baby has kinda consumed my life -- but I really would like to see Golden League action at least once this year.

359

Did a lot of people change their screen names from back then? There seem to be quite a few names that are not around here anymore.

364 True. He is still showing the same problems he always has (high walk rate, a lot of fly balls), so I'm skeptical.

If they did, they didn't get outed as having. The current Branch Rickey used to be something else. Then there's the one we don't talk about. And me. But those are the only ones I remember, off hand.

Where did you hear of these Dodger love calls to Darvish?

367. I'm skeptical too, but it's not like he has to put up good numbers to show an improvement. I wish him all the success in the world, mostly because I got 150:1 odds on the Rays to win the W.S. this year.
vr, Xei

356 - Hey, I was Losers Dividend Guy.

Is it possible Torre is looking to see who will break out in April to take over the starting from May on?

Total AB's

Pierre: 28
Kemp: 28

I clearly had more of a life back then because I didn't post anything for those two days around the trade deadline. Hard to imagine! Maybe I was traveling, or the Dodgers that year just really depressed me. I mean seriously, I just think back to the 2005 team and feel less like complaining about the roster at the moment.

371 would have been funny if not for the post reference number.

370 At 150:1, you had to bet. You're almost sure to lose, but why not take the chance?

The question is, is it possible, right now, to make a 150:1 bet that the Rays will win the 2010 WS? Because that might actually happen.

375. Yes, I had to take those odds. I broke it down into four $5 bets, so I'd win $3000. I shopped around, only one casino offered 150:1. Most were 100:1 and the Rio was only 60:1
vr, Xei

374 - Yeah, too bad.

NPUT

It is so fundamentally bizarre to split time between one guy who bats #3 when he's in the lineup and another guy that bats #8 when he's in the lineup. In other words, one is your best hitter when he plays. The other is your worst hitter when he plays. But they split time equally.

301 ,313
That said, I live in San Diego and am having Dodger withdrawals. I have Time Warner and am thinking about purchasing the MLB package, then read this on their website. "San Diego Division (including Barstow and DC) is considered inside the Los Angeles market, and MLB requires TWC to black out all Padres, Dodgers and Angel broadcasts. Padres, however are available in SD on Channel 4. This blackout includes the MLB Season Package."

I was away for a few hours, so sorry I didn't get to this sooner (I just saw the Dodger signal in the sky).

I can't speak for MLB.tv, but I have been an Extra Innings subscriber for the last seven years, all in San Diego. Even though the blackout wording is as you describe above, Dodger games do not get blacked out in San Diego.

All Dodger games on EI, home or away, are available in San Diego, except when they play the Padres (and they are on Channel 4).

EJM, are you going to any Dodgers-Padres games at Petco in June?

I was away for a few hours, so sorry I didn't get to this sooner (I just saw the Dodger signal in the sky).

Life outside of Dodger Thoughts?!?!?

Blasphemous.

I just saw the Dodger signal in the sky

I bet that doesn't go over well in San Diego

I feel their is a heavy bias in San Diego against the dodgers but thats granted right?

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