
Jon's other site:
Screen Jam
TV and more ...
Dodger Thoughts T-Shirts
On sale through February 16, 2008


Click here to order.
* * *
The Best of Dodger Thoughts
A 325-page book featuring the top selections from this website from 2002-2005.
Click here for more information.
* * *
Or, just make a donation to support the site. Many thanks.
"Dodger Thoughts, like TiVo, is one of those things you can completely do without until you start using it."
- Fanerman
SI.com
NL West Preview
Evaluating Defense
Colletti and Depo
World Baseball Classic
Minor League Broadcasters
Slow Starts
Eric Gagne
Groundball Pitchers
Dodger Prospects
Albert Pujols
Humbled Angels
You Be the Manager
Eric Gagne II
Unreliable Relievers
Revived Angels
It's Okay To Sell
Dodger Turnaround
Andre Ethier
Padres-Dodgers Showdown
NL Final Weekend
Mets-Dodgers NLDS
Postseason ratings
NL Wish Lists
Manny vs. J.D.
McGwire Controversy
Dodger Offense
Trainers Matter
Variety
Will Arnett
John C. McGinley
Laura Dern
Imelda Staunton
SAG Awards
Ellen Pompeo
Grey's Anatomy
2004-05 Rookie Dramas
Anthony Hopkins
NATPE
Scrubs
Award Shows
Topher Grace
Ashton Kutcher
Writing on Improv Shows
Rainn Wilson
T.R. Knight
Guest Actors
Animation Guests
Joey Carson and Tennis
Donald Trump and Golf
2006 Emmys Nominees*
*Comedy Series
*Comedy Director
*Comedy Writer
*Comedy Actor
*Comedy Supporting Actor
Blue's Clues
Lizzy Caplan
Ann Donahue
CMT: Giants
CMA Awards
Little Miss Sunshine
Actor-Directors
Freshman Series
Clint Eastwood
Showrunners vs. Censors
Little Children
Breaking and Entering
Tartikoff Legacy Awards
Jackie Earle Haley
Knights of Prosperity
Office Online
2007 Screenplay Noms
Friday Night Lights
Robert Benton
ABC Fridays
Rookie Actors
Global Casting
2007 Pilot Casting
Sublime Slime
Also ...
A Season in Savannah (Stanford Magazine)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2005) (Hardball Times)
Rick Monday (Baseball Analysts)
Baseball's Odd Couple (Baseball Prospectus)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2006) (Hardball Times)
Five Questions: Los Angeles Dodgers (2007) (Hardball Times)
Dodger home record: 50-35 (.588)
When Jon attended: 9-5 (.643)
When Jon didn't: 41-30 (.577)
Dodgers at home: 795-635 (.556)
Jon attended: 302-238 (.559)*
Jon didn't: 498-404 (.552)
* includes road games attended
Current Roster with Estimated 2009 Salaries
(updated November 14)
Most figures are estimates (some are wild estimates) but will be updated as information comes in. Corrections welcome.
More contract details here.
Starting Pitchers (5)
$10,000,000 Hiroki Kuroda
*$475,000 Chad Billingsley
*$415,000 Clayton Kershaw
*$405,000 Eric Stults
*$400,000 James McDonald
*Total: $11,695,000
Bullpen (7)
*$2,500,000 Takashi Saito
*$1,300,000 Scott Proctor
*$1,500,000 Jonathan Broxton
*$425,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
*$420,000 Cory Wade
*$410,000 Ramon Troncoso
*$400,000 Scott Elbert
Total: $6,955,000
Also on 40-man roster
Mario Alvarez
Yhency Brazoban
Greg Miller
Justin Orenduff
Starting Lineup (8)
$17,100,000 Andruw Jones
*$3,000,000 Russell Martin
*$2,500,000 Andre Ethier
*$600,000 Matt Kemp
*$600,000 James Loney
*$500,000 Angel Berroa
*$410,000 Blake DeWitt
*$400,000 Tony Abreu
Total: $25,110,000
Bench (5)
$10,000,000 Juan Pierre
*$600,000 Jason Repko
*$410,000 Delwyn Young
*$400,000 Danny Ardoin
*$400,000 Chin-Lung Hu
Total: $11,810,000
Note: Team can buy out Ozuna's 2009 option for $200,000
Also on 40-man roster
A.J. Ellis
Lucas May
Xavier Paul
Disabled List
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
Also Paying ...
$2,000,000 Brad Penny (buyout of $9,000,000 option)
$50,000 Gary Bennett (buyout of $900,000 option)
Note: Kansas City is responsible for $500,000 buyout of Angel Berroa's $5,500,000 option for 2009.
Working total: *$68,020,000
ESPN BR
BP
Cube Alvarez
ESPN BR
BP
Cube Abreu
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Beimel
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Bennett
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Billingsley
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Brazoban
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Broxton
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube DeWitt
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Ethier
ESPN
BR
BP
Cube Furcal
ESPN BR BP Cube Garciaparra
ESPN BR BP Cube Hu
ESPN BR BP Cube Jones
ESPN BR BP Cube Kemp
ESPN BR BP Cube Kent
ESPN BR BP Cube Kuo
ESPN BR BP Cube Kuroda
ESPN BR BP Cube LaRoche
ESPN BR BP Cube Loaiza
ESPN BR BP Cube Loney
ESPN BR BP Cube Lowe
ESPN BR BP Cube Martin
ESPN BR BP Cube May
ESPN BR BP Cube McDonald
ESPN BR BP Cube Meloan
ESPN BR BP Cube Miller
ESPN BR BP Cube Orenduff
ESPN BR BP Cube Park
ESPN BR BP Cube Paul
ESPN BR BP Cube Penny
ESPN BR BP Cube Pierre
ESPN BR BP Cube Proctor
ESPN BR BP Cube Repko
ESPN BR BP Cube Saito
ESPN BR BP Cube Schmidt
ESPN BR BP Cube Stults
ESPN BR BP Cube Sweeney
ESPN BR BP Cube Troncoso
ESPN BR BP Cube Wade
ESPN BR BP Cube Young
ESPN BR BP Cube Alomar
ESPN BR BP Cube Alvarez
ESPN BR BP Cube Aybar
ESPN BR BP Cube Baez
ESPN BR BP Cube Bako
ESPN BR BP Cube Beltre
ESPN BR BP Cube Bradley
ESPN BR BP Cube Cabrera
ESPN BR BP Cube Carrara
ESPN BR BP Cube Carter
ESPN BR BP Cube Chen
ESPN BR BP Cube Choi
ESPN BR BP Cube Cora
ESPN BR BP Cube Crosby
ESPN BR BP Cube Cruz
ESPN BR BP Cube Dessens
ESPN BR BP Cube Dreifort
ESPN BR BP Cube Drew
ESPN BR BP Cube Encarnacion
ESPN BR BP Cube Edwards
ESPN BR BP Cube Erickson
ESPN BR BP Cube Falkenborg
ESPN BR BP Cube Finley
ESPN BR BP Cube Flores
ESPN BR BP Cube Gagne
ESPN BR BP Cube Grabowski
ESPN BR BP Cube Green
ESPN BR BP Cube Guzman
ESPN BR BP Cube Hanrahan
ESPN BR BP Cube Hernandez
ESPN BR BP Cube Hundley
ESPN BR BP Cube Ishii
ESPN BR BP Cube Izturis
ESPN BR BP Cube Jackson
ESPN BR BP Cube Karros
ESPN BR BP Cube Ketchner
ESPN BR BP Cube Ledee
ESPN BR BP Cube Lima
ESPN BR BP Cube Lo Duca
ESPN BR BP Cube Lofton
ESPN BR BP Cube T. Martin
ESPN BR BP Cube Mayne
ESPN BR BP Cube G. Mota
ESPN BR BP Cube Mueller
ESPN BR BP Cube Myrow
ESPN BR BP Cube Nakamura
ESPN BR BP Cube Navarro
ESPN BR BP Cube Nomo
ESPN BR BP Cube Osoria
ESPN BR BP Cube A. Perez
ESPN BR BP Cube O. Perez
ESPN BR BP Cube Phillips
ESPN BR BP Cube Proctor
ESPN BR BP Cube Roberts
ESPN BR BP Cube Robles
ESPN BR BP Cube Romano
ESPN BR BP Cube C. Ross
ESPN BR BP Cube D. Ross
ESPN BR BP Cube Sanchez
ESPN BR BP Cube Schmoll
ESPN BR BP Cube Sele
ESPN BR BP Cube Seo
ESPN BR BP Cube Shuey
ESPN BR BP Cube Stanley
ESPN BR BP Cube S. Stewart
ESPN BR BP Cube Thompson
ESPN BR BP Cube Thurston
ESPN BR BP Cube Valentin
ESPN BR BP Cube Venafro
ESPN BR BP Cube Ventura
ESPN BR BP Cube Weaver
ESPN BR BP Cube Werth
ESPN BR BP Cube Wilson
ESPN BR BP Cube Wunsch
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Baseball Toaster runs on some experimental software called Fairpole. It's still under development.
For more information, please visit the Fairpole blog, or read the FAQ.
While Blake DeWitt defies all expectations and only hits the ball harder and farther and more consistently when he was supposed to wilt, another Dodger infielder is conforming to expectations quite inconveniently.
Jeff Kent, who in previous seasons lost most of his fielding range, has stopped hitting at age 40. For the season, the Dodgers' nominal cleanup hitter has an on-base percentage of .287 (with the same number of walks as the never-walking Matt Kemp) and a slugging percentage of .383. He has 10 extra-base hits in 120 at-bats. His Value Over Replacement Player, which doesn't factor in his fielding, is a meager 0.9; one could interpret that to mean he is almost the equivalent of Luis Maza.
Kent's equivalent average, which rounds all his offensive abilities into a single number (with .260 being average), is .246 - its lowest total since he was establishing himself in 1992 and down more than 50 points from his pre-2008 average as a Dodger. In the past four weeks, Kent has a .263 on-base percentage and .271 slugging percentage.
Kent has slumped before - that's nothing new, and in and of itself would not be an issue. In April 2006, Kent slugged .244 on his way to a .554 OPS. The following month, he slugged .622 on his way to a 1.066 OPS. Great players have bad stretches, and I've always advocated patience and keeping the faith. That's why I've done so with Andruw Jones, as difficult as it's been to endure and as unguaranteed as the outcome might be. That's why I did so with Russell Martin in April and with some of the pitchers this month.
But Kent is at a stage where you have to wonder how much he can turn it around. It's not that he'll necessarily stay down at a 72 OPS+ when he hasn't been below 119 since 1997. But how much improvement can one expect? Consider what ToyCannon at True Blue L.A. wrote way back in November:
As Jeff Kent turns 40 he is about to enter an area that historically has not been kind to second basemen. Here is a list of second basemen sorted by age who ever did squat since integration. As you can see only HOF Joe Morgan was able to accomplish the feat (OPS+ above 100) at the age of 40 and most of that was accomplished by his OBP, and the OPS+ of 103 is hardly noteworthy. ...
I wasn't as prescient as this, but it was my offseason hope that Jones' arrival would allow Kent to be pushed out of the cleanup spot. Even I knew he would no longer be suited to bat fourth.
What seems likely is that Kent will have reassuring little bursts of offense here and there to disguise his mediocrity, much like Juan Pierre has had, and then fade again. (Yes, I'm going to pick on Pierre even after - or especially because - he was Wednesday's hero, because it's exactly at such a time that people need reminding that his offense and defense still pale next to that of Andre Ethier, wasting away at 26. Pierre's OPS since the Colorado series, including his 3-for-5 Wednesday, is .552, and his 2008 EQA is still 30 points below Ethier's.) So, at a minimum, the Dodgers had better make sure they have a Plan B in case Kent's decline is real.
Perhaps Chin-Lung Hu or eventually Tony Abreu is that plan. Perhaps Andy LaRoche or Blake DeWitt or Delwyn Young need to practice overtime at second base. Whatever it is, hopefully the team isn't burying its head in the sand. The end comes to the best of them. It might come late, and in Kent's case, it might, might just hold off for one more rebound. But don't get your hopes too high.
* * *
Jeff Passan gets up close and personal with Clayton Kershaw at Yahoo! Sports.
* * *
DeWitt's backed stiffened in the fifth inning Wednesday, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, but DeWitt said after receiving postgame treatment that he felt good.
Dodgers at Brewers, 10:05 a.m.
Update: Knock me over with a feather. DeWitt was scratched from the lineup; Russell Martin is starting at third.
Forget defense, just get the best bats in the lineup. Sure, LaRoche may make a few errors, but he's young enough where he could improve.
If Kent doesnt bb anymore, he's done bc his power is all but gone.
The Dodgers problems boil down largely to lack of power. Their best power hitter is playing third base in the minors right now. Oh well.
Maybe next year.
http://tinyurl.com/445m8t
Our manager isn't concerned about power.
1. would the Dodgers be required to pay him if he wanted the money?
2. would the Dodgers be required to pay him if he didn't want the money?
Speaking of which, am I the only guy who was dismayed to learn Juan Pierre was the hero last night? I didn't see the game and noticed the highlights as I got home.
Since Pierre will never get hurt, this problem is all on Torre, just like it was all on Little, and I expect it to last all season.
The 3rd base situation will probably be up to the Fates and the trainers. The guy who can walk will play. If two guys can walk, DeWitt is the odd man out.
I've actually stopped TiVoing the games. I check in to see how games in progress are going, or I "watch" via Gamecast at work, but I just don't need the aggravation of watching better players rot on the bench while inferior players play. Again.
Shocking - but good times await us. The starting pitching will start giving up fewer runs as they pitch to their peripherals, A Jones will come back big, Kent will not be this bad, Furcal will be healthy again, and Pierre will sit again.
As others have advocated I'm sure the brain trust is discussing the DeWitt or LaRoche to 2nd base every night. Wouldn't shock me at all to see LaRoche playing 2nd base someday soon for Vegas. Of course the same brain trust might also be trying to trade LaRoche but we all know what will happen if they do. DeWitt's 1st slump will start the day LaRoche is dealt. I can't imagine that the Dodgers would be so short sited that they would be happy to rely on DeWitt for the rest of 2008.
Just like Hu's power display last Sept should be taken with a grain of salt so should his tepid start this spring. Don't be so quick to bury him, not every kid comes up ready to hit which makes what DeWitt doing even more special. He's also a SS where a special glove can make up for an anemic bat. I can't think of any other backup SS in the major leagues I'd rather have playing SS right now then Hu. Remember what Tulo did in his first go around and then how he did after his explosive sophmore season.
It should be noted that while only 10 people have ever had an 800 OPS at age 40 or above in 500 PA, only 26 people have done it age at 39 or older, and Kent is one of them.
Enjoy the win. We needed it.
Seems to me a drop from 26 to 10 is a large drop. I expect that of those 10 who did it at 40, all of them did it at 39. So would you consider those good odds that some of the greatest hitters of our time, only 10 of them would be able to repeat the skill only one year later?
If Kent retired and put himself on the voluntarily retired list, he wouldn't be getting paid anymore.
There's a very good chance Kent could be done, I said as much before, but we shouldn't just give up on him because he's 40.
Pierre, LF
Jones, CF
Ethier, RF
Kent, 2B
Loney, 1B
Martin, C
DeWitt, 3B
Maza, SS
Billingsley, P
With no real option at 2nd base, Kent needs to perform and prove me wrong for us to be successful. I've even got a column ready to go for when he breaks out and I hope I get to use it.
Hoo boy, I'm seeing 3 runs max today from the Blue Crew. Maybe Billingsley has one of those 9 inning shutouts in him.
So what were the odds of seeing a left side of the infield of Maza/DeWitt for the Dodgers in May?
I don't think his minor league fiedling stats set hearts aflutter.
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=3896
All the way back in 4 .
Nasty indeed. But his stats at 3B don't impress either.
He's also a SS where a special glove can make up for an anemic bat.
Can anyone give me an example of another SS with a great glove and no bat that is starting right now? Both Izturus brothers and Orlando Cabrera immediately come to my mind. Taking those three guys for example, I would say only the White Sox have enough potential offensive firepower to combat the black hole in the lineup that is their SS. I don't think the Angels nor the Cardinals can afford to keep playing those guys without it hurting their chances of success in the long run. I guess that's my point. I don't see Hu or Abreu for that matter, contributing continually to the team's success. I see their presence in a lineup already lacking power as a serious detriment. I would rather resign Furcal and try a LaRoche experiment at 2nd or sign a free agent (Orlando Hudson maybe?) than go with Hu or Abreu as one of our starting infielders next year.
It's never been about disdain for the actual player, just for the decision that brought them here in the first place. :)
Trust me, a lot of people are mighty upset about Andruw Jones.
http://tinyurl.com/555wbe
I would feel more comfortable racing David Wells.
I can give you a long list. The offensive era of the SS is already over.
Other then NY, Texas, Indians, and Detroit I don't see one SS who is considered an above average offensive player in the AL.
Boston - Lugo - no offense or defense
Tampa - Bartlett - good defense, little offense
Balt - zippo on both fronts
Toronto - zippo on both fronts
KC - good defense, no offense
Twins - all about defense, zero offense
CWS - good defense, aveage offense
Angels - who knows, to early to tell what Aybar brings
A's - no offense, Crosby hasn't hit in years
Seattle - good defense, some offense
In the NL you have Reyes, Rollins, Hanley
all in the East. One guy in the central Tejada.
Atlanta - no one thinks Escobar can keep this up. expect a decline
Florida - Hanley is so bad defensively he's a joke
Nat's - on an offensive tear, care to bet on where it ends up
Cubs - Theriot - really
Brewers - JJ Hardy is quite average offensivley other then one month in 2007
Cardinals - Izzy I
Pirates - Jack Wilson all about defense, no offense
Arizona - Drew - who knows
Giants - zippo
Padres - you think Green and his subpar 300 OBP is an offensive SS?
Dodgers - Furcal when healthy
Tulo - one great year, one bad year, take a look at his road numbers in 2007 and is he really anything special offensively?
I stand by my statement.
a) finally allow Ned to trade him?
b) finally allow Ned and Torre to play him?
I think the same thing about Kyle Korver. He looks like Carrot Top, not Ashton Kutcher.
Welcome to Dodger Thoughts Hammer!
I thought maybe I saw you on Bronx Banter once. Anyway, I'm headed to NYC to see the Yanks in July. Do you have any Pizza restaurant recommends in either Manhattan or the Outer Boroughs?
As for Pierre, yes, I agree with all the others.
I enjoy what I am seeing from Torre so far. He's a very calm, well intentioned, good leader, in my eyes.
It's quite simply a preference for another player who is more talented and also a hard worker. It's nothing personal against Pierre.
B) They've played him in twelve straight
Really, whenever I see him it says Kutcher to me.
How come the Griddle is not on this story?
I don't hear those chirpers anymore. I wonder why.
That's a nice list and all but how may of those guys you listed (subjective comments aside, ex:Atlanta - no one thinks Escobar can keep this up. expect a decline) actually hurt their team by their lack of offensive prowess?
Lugo for example, doesn't hurt Boston because they have the offense to make up for him. My point is that the Dodgers don't have the offense to make up for a guy like Hu, who doesn't or hasn't hit at all. I'm not saying he needs to be a slugger, he just needs to hit somewhat consistently. By not hitting and not having other sufficient/proven power sources in our daily lineup, he hinders our chances of winning.
That 10th inning in game 2 of the doubleheader Monday killed their streak.
Still, they have five straight games of allowing 0 runs in the first 9 innings (4 of them shutouts).
Today that might be true but what are you going to do? His job is to play defense and add whatever offense he can. It is up to the offensive players to make up the slack of the missing Furcal not a 1st year SS replacing the hottest hitter on the team.
But the Indians gave up 3 runs on Monday night.
I believed I showed today that you can throw 18 innings and give up 1 run and still be the loser.