Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Los Angeles owes Mike Piazza a big thank you. The Dodgers need to be proactive in making sure it happens. The sooner he is honored at Dodger Stadium, the better.
A propos of this, here's Bill Shaikin in the Times:
Piazza loved L.A. -- the fans, the night life, the perennial promise of October -- and L.A. loved him back. But free agency loomed after the 1998 season, initial negotiations did not go well, and all of a sudden L.A. knew he wanted a record-setting contract.
Fred Claire, the general manager, figured he had all season to make a deal. The new Fox ownership wanted to rid itself of Piazza and buddy up to the Florida Marlins for television rights purposes, so the corporate suits traded Piazza to the Marlins in May, then told Claire what they had done. ...
In his statement (today), Piazza thanked all the teams, managers and fans for which he played, but he singled out the Mets' fans as "the greatest fans in the world."
(Tommy) Lasorda, the Dodgers' chief salesman, said he was not offended. He said Piazza was stung by boos at Dodger Stadium, before and after the trade. He would try, he said, to persuade Piazza to wear a Dodgers cap on his Hall of Fame plaque.
Persuasion should not have been necessary. The late, great Times columnist Jim Murray called it, two days after the trade:
"The Dodgers always have adhered to the Branch Rickey theory of roster cutting that it's better to deal a player a year early than a year late. But in Piazza's case, 10 years early?"
Jay Jaffe runs Piazza's Hall of Fame credentials up the Baseball Prospectus flagpole, so we can all salute.
Hopefully, the next time Piazza visits Dodger Stadium, he won't get those tasteless boos from the thoughtless.
* * *
Check out Tuesday's In the Bleachers from Steve Moore. Too close for comfort?
They did such a wonderful job on opening day, so maybe...
(I'm sure Chris Carter will some day turn into a fine major leaguer, but right now... I say, thanks DBax, since you're strong enough as it is.)
Doesn't mean that the trade wasn't a shock.
---
It's funny how 1998 seems like ages ago, and it was ten years now, but it just seems like forever and a day. I feel like I blacked out during and after that trade, blacked out any memory of the Dodgers around then.
Strange but true- Denker was born the same month as Blake DeWitt in August 1985.
http://tinyurl.com/4kd8fs
Peter Chernin looks more benevolent. Unless you were a member of the WGA. Then you would think he's pure evil.
http://tinyurl.com/4wu2nt
http://tinyurl.com/6xjmbu (highly profane)
http://tinyurl.com/5kwbb9
Please do not watch any more of "Torn Curtain" than you have to. It's one of the dopiest Hitchcock films ever made.
The insinuation by Lasorda that Piazza was maybe two-three hours away from being our backup catcher makes me incredibly sad. That is despite the fact the it probably is not true.
I'm still bitter.
Piazza should have NEVER been in any uniform other than a Dodgers uniform.
Mike Piazza, the strongest man in baseball.
http://www.insidesocal.com/dodgers/2008/05/dodgers-4-reds.html
``I don't want to put that (ace label) on him,'' Torre said. ``His personality is such that he puts enough pressure on himself without thinking he has to be the leader of this staff. Right now, he is taking his turn and giving us reasons to feel good about him, just giving us very solid performances. He had seven strikeouts in the first five innings, but he also made them hit the ball, and that's a really big thing for him.''
http://tinyurl.com/4emuxz
20 - I like the show okay, but that was not the most artfully plotted episode. I wasn't buying Ted in much of it.
Anyway, glad the series has been picked up. And I think the Barney and Robin thing has a lot of comedy gold potential. I'm thinking when Chandler and Monica started dating on Friends but did not want anyone to know. At the very least, it should be intriguing and fresh.
I like Barney and Robin's potential much more than Chandler-Monica, mainly because they figure to be a much less annoying couple. And I liked Friends, at least for a while.
I'll give you one guess as to whose game article today starts with that paragraph.
"It is bad enough that the Cincinnati Reds lost their eighth straight game in Dodger Stadium to a pitcher with a 3-5 record and a 4.34 earned run average, but it makes it even worse that they lost in front of a supposedly hip Hollywood crowd that still does The Wave."
Chad must be in charge of the elevators at Dodger Stadium.
I respect the heck out of Tony Jackson, who provides a lot of information via his blog, but he's ridiculous.
Billingsley 124
Peavy 124
Haren 122
Penny 117
Lowe 115
Beckett 111
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/Mxzc
By the way, Billingsley's ERA as a starter -- before last night (Baseball-Reference.com hasn't yet been updated this morning) -- was 3.36 from 2006-2008, moving his ERA+ into the 134 range, which would tie Chad with John Smoltz for #5 on the list.
Kuo 2.53
Billingsley 3.08
Lowe 3.62
Kuroda 3.99
Penny 4.13
Loaiza 4.60
Park 5.20
Somewhere in there there's a joke about Hal McCoy not being able to see the truth.
vr, Xei
I'm with you on this one. With Park & Loaiza as the other 5th starter options, there is no reason Kuo shouldn't start.
BHsportsguy--Its kinda of strange you'd pick these three things out. Valentin was just a 1yr cheap stop gap that got hurt. He had a good year with the Mets afterward.
Phillips was a backup catcher, and really the key wasnt getting Phillips it was getting rid of Ishii.
DePo's deal with Drew got the Dodgers a good player at 2/22. Thats a great deal that worked out perfectly for them.
There's no comparison between the mistakes that DePo made and the mistakes that Colletti continues to make. DePo's mistakes were small in nature (Jim Tracy, Erickson, signing Izzy to a 3 yr deal).
Comparing his bad stuff to Ned's: Druw, Nomar, Schmidt, Loaiza, trading Navarro/Edwin...its not even in the same level.
Maybe DePo could have done more---but I tell you what: A Dodger OF of Werth, Kemp, Bradley, Drew would look mighty fine right now at a much smaller cost than what Ned's playing for the current crop.
Sheffield had the highest contract in MLB, signing a 6/$61m deal with Florida just before the 1998 season. Piazza was making $8m in 1998, his final year before free agency. I don't remember what the Dodgers' offer was (I want to say in the 7/$75m range), but Piazza was right to turn that down, given the market that was about to happen.
Salaries were about to explode. In the ensuing offseason, Kevin Brown (7/$105), Mo Vaughn (6/$80m), Bernie Williams (7/$87.5), and Randy Johnson (4/$53.4) among others signed huge deals. Piazza himself signed for 7/$91m with the Mets.
As I recall (based on what was reported) prior to the trade the Dodgers offered Piazza a contract that was the about the same as the one he ended up signing with the Mets, Piazza made it known that he wanted to be the first $100M player and decided that he would no longer negotiate until after the season.
He's a witch. BURN HIM!!!
46 And my great heresy: I don't like Monty Python & the Holy Grail.
The line for heretics, witches, and apostates forms BEHIND Daniel.
Piazza is going into the Hall of Fame as a Met and I don't blame him for a second.
That passage hurt my feelings. I must not be a very good fan, as a Dodger Fan. If that's true, Dodger fans who go to the ballpark must not be very appreciative or smart in comparison.
In the 80s, did the Dodger fans ever cheer on Steve Garvey in his last game at DS (in a Padres Uniform?), or Cey in his Cubs uniform?
I look at us, and I feel lousy today. If Mets fans can show that kind of class, I can only wish we reciprocate.
Cey finished his career with the A's, actually.
When Dodger fans booed Steve Finley, whom the team chose not to offer a contract to, in 2005 I knew that there was no hope left.
The souls of Dodger Stadium fans had become irredeemable.
(Exceptions for soul redemption can be made in writing for a $5 fee payable to me.)
That's an ugly, harsh truth, and I might have to drink heavily to come to grips with it.
The Dodgers have a Yankee for a Manager, a Giant as a GM, and a Boston fan as an owner.
Mostly because I liked Bill Russel and Alston and Lasorda established a LA tradition for a Manager to manage for 20 plus years I wanted Russel to have a long realm as manager. Not only did that not happen but we lost Scoscia as well.
I don't know what Piazza wants to do but if he would like to be part of the Dodger organization, I would hope McCourt would give him a visible role.
O'Malley did not want to sign a big contract while he was selling the Dodgers so Piazza had to wait. If it weren't for the process of selling the Dodgers, Piazza would have been signed before the season started without distractions.
vr, Xei
People dont understand how good Chad is. Of the pitchers you mentioned, I'd only take Hamels and maybe Lincecum over him. He needs more pub.
True, Ned has had the resources and the additional years of experience for the farm system that DePodesta did not have in his time here.
But I get that feeling here at times that its Paul good and Ned bad and I just don't tend to view things that way.
I just think the fans don't realize it is okay to be silent and not boo. On Monday night they were booing Griffey at his at bats and the entire team when it was announced. I know we go on and on about this, but how do you boo a guy like Griffey?
By the way, I was fortunate enough on Monday night to see Heidi and Spencer on the jumbo tron from "The Hills" (heavy sarcasm)
{Rule 1}{Rule 1}{Rule 1}{Rule 1}. Classic.
Actually, I think the anti-trust exemption means they DON'T have to abide by certain rules.
As for the respect issue, I agree 100 percent, but let's be honest. This is the franchise that traded Jackie Robinson to the Giants, that stiffed Koufax and Drysdale, that sent away Garvey, Lopes, and Cey. We can't expect fans to respect our former heroes if management itself doesn't. Piazza after all was just one of many guys who cried when he heard the team had traded him away, so did Buckner, and yes, so did LoDuca. On this, I give McCourt credit. Maybe it's because he's a Sox fan, but aside from ignoring Scioscia as a possible manager, he seems to have a sense of team tradition, as we saw on opening day. I hope now that he keeps it up. Honoring Piazza and Nomo with more than a first pitch would be good next steps. Advance apologies for the rant.
On the other hand, the M's are owned by Nintendo, for all intents and purposes.
If the Dodgers can make good with Fernando Valenzuela, there is indeed hope. Bob, will you accept my 5 dollars in cash or check?
McCourt can be blamed for lots of things, not hiring Mike Scioscia is not one of them.
Seriously, man, Dodger Stadium fans today are flat out stupid. I remember during the last game I was at a guy was really letting Kemp have it for misplaying the ball during our game vs the D-backs. I wanted to let him have it, but I decided not to.
I have to admit, as much as I love baseball and the Dodgers in particular, I really don't care much for going to games any more.
I have to admit though, when the team doesn't win a playoff series in 20 years, a lot of things can go sour. I have to admit, if let's say, the Lakers went 20 years without winning a playoff series, one could only imagine the amount of vitrol in the stands. We could be hearing more boos at Staples Center.
So my "stupidity" rant was overstated. If the Knicks fans can turn on their own, I don't think it precludes any fanbase to embitter themselves after years of frustration.
Then we can move them back to SoCal!
That'll learn 'em!
John Smoltz 22nd round, 574th overall.
Minors 21-24 4.13 ERA and not even a 2-1 K/BB ratio.
Majors 210-147 3.25 ERA 154 saves, 3011 K's 992 BB 15 Division Title Rings, 5 NL Penants a World Title, 1 Cy Young and the All time National League single season saves record.
vr, Xei
What is that fan upset at? If he's just booing without knowing much, that is kinda stupid.
If you were Kevin Towers, and the Dodgers offered you what you felt was the best pool of talent for Jake Peavy, would you pass on that offer and take a lesser offer just to not trade Peavy to L.A.?
It would be great to see him go into the hall of fame as a Dodger, but I don't really see that happening. I'd also like to see the Dodgers retire his number. Thoughts?
All time National League single season saves record
...tied with Gagne.
Piazza really will be the first test case to see if the Dodger policy is to only retire numbers of HOFers who are HOFers as Dodgers (besides Gilliam, of course).
Neither the Dodgers nor Piazza want to be humiliated like that, so it's not gonna happen.
Is there anything wrong with that, if indeed your perceptions were true?
vr, Xei
They wouldn't boo if there was a ceremony for him. It's one thing if he's on an opposing team, but Piazza will not get booed for that.
I would like to see the Dodgers move quickly to get their Piazza Day delivered before the Mets.
Fans long since waiting for the Reggie Jackson Orioles day will also have to wait for the Piazza Marlin ceremony.
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B0018LX9P8/
Freshly baked terror!
Ok so I did some reseach to see if my memory was accurate with regards to what the Dodgers had offered and found this
http://tinyurl.com/634jl3
(hope that works)
Anyway according to the Daily News Piazza turned down a 6 year $85 Million deal with the dodgers, which I believe compares favorably (given the time value of money) to the 7 year 91 Millon that he ended up signing with the Mets. Also at that time Piazza canceled negotiations which led to him being traded, I didn't want to see Piazza go but given those circumstances I do not think that it is fair to put the majority of the blame on the front office.
It has to be easier to boo a player who is trying to beat you, but Piazza is no longer wearing the uniform of an opponent.
As far as Piazza getting booed, it was actually understandable. The Dodgers had offered Mike 84 mil/ 6year deal. Lozano, Piazza's agent, had let it be known that it would take a min. of 100mil to re-sign him and turned down the deal, which would have made Piazza the highest paid in the league. The Dodgers let him know that was their final offer and that they were gong to work on a trade. They even told Lozano that they were close to a deal with the Marlins but Lozano told Piazza that it was just a 'strong arm' tactic. Unfortunatly Lozano was wrong and Piazza was traded. I wouldn't have booed him but when he turned down the offer I didn't care if he was traded. It was pure ego on Piazza's and Lozano's part.
Best SI cover in quite some time BTW.
Juan Pierre was not happy with how he got the news about being moved out of left field. Does that mean that Ned Colletti has no people skills?
If you want to boo Piazza, fine. Just don't justify it with weak reasoning. It's a little hypocritical. Piazza did what he thought was best for him and the Dodgers did what they thought was best for them. If you want to boo him, fine, but it shouldn't be because he was trying to negotiate the best possible deal for himself. I'm sure you would have and probably have done that for yourself at some point.
Sorry for any Rule 7 violations.
http://tinyurl.com/43dee8
In all fairness, the same could be said about how DePo handled any of his business. Nobody wants to be told they are not needed any more. No matter how it's done.
http://have-you-met-ted.com/
Also, any search for The Big Bang Theory Blog understandably leads to ornery astronomy buffs arguing about the origins of space rather than the Penny-Leonard big moment. Go figure!
My larger point is that it's risky to draw a conclusion from isolated incidents that someone has no people skills.
There is no way fans are booing him on an appreciation day. If he's wearing an LA hat then people are going to have extremely short memories..on the other hand Give me one former Dodger (still playing) that people would actually cheer at Dodger Stadium without blinking an eye. This is one of the differences between the east coast/west coast baseball fan I think (or maybe just Dodger fans in general?).
Then it seemed Dodgers had to rub it in by signing K. Brown to $105 million, like, see we can spend that much.
128. I'd agree if it only happened once or twice. But it didn't, it happened a few times, more than it should have especialy when communication is one of the strongest traits a GM should have and Depo's were weak.
125 It's not weak reasoning, fans were mad that he signed a deal that wasn't for much more than the Dodgers offered. He never got the 100 mil deal that Lozano wanted. If he had gotten it fine and it would have showed that the Dodgers were low balling him. Instead he signs for what amounted to the same contract the Dodgers had offered and without the no trade he also said he wanted.
And just declaring that DePo had bad people skills, without actually offering evidence of it, isn't enough. The case you've made so far is much less than convincing. You've cited two examples, one of which has details that are disputed, the other of which involves a low-level front office employee that had no real effect on the team. You need a lot more than that to make a blanket statement.
I think in sports, people let their emotions cloud their judgement. It's really a results oriented business and I dont think executives should be evaluated based on their personality but on their body of work.
Baseball is still lagging behind because some organizations still place personality over performance, and thats when you get in-efficiencies. Dodgers would be an example of a team that has operated like this, and are hurting because of it.
People at Staples Center still boo Blake to this day, and yes I think they are stupid. Do I think they're lesser fans? No, because arguing over who's a bigger fan is itself stupid.
A agree with you. However, what should be is very different from what is. We live in the real world, and the fact is that everyone, baseball GMs included, is judged by those things to some degree. While I don't necessarily buy the fact that DePo had no people skills, one of the reasons, perhaps the main reason, he was fired is that Plaschke was able to convince certain people that DePo had no people skills. If DePodesta had been perceived as having people skills, it's pretty clear he would have received a longer leash and more time to finish the job he started.
1) we are in no real position to evaluate said skills, having never met him or any of the people he worked with, and having no idea what the morale was or wasn't under DePo, let alone who was responsible for it;
2) people-skills, like all intagibles, are in the eye of the beholder, but to the extent that they matter, they should show up in the overall results.
DePo's skills with the media are a matter for debate, but I always found him fairly open and decent in the interviews I heard. Perhaps that's not so, since I certainly didn't hear them all, or deal with him as a press person. Certainly I'm impressed with the fact that he's created a blog.
And yeah, I've got no problem with calling many of the fans who boo stupid. Well, stupid is kind of strong word, so let's give them the benefit of the doubt and call them thoughtless, as Jon did. What else are you supposed to call people who boo on every pickoff throw? Who boo a great Dodger like Shawn Green when he comes back to the stadium? Who boo even the umpiring decisions that are clearly correct? Who boo a great player like Jonathan Broxton when he has the rare bad game? Sure, they bought their ticket and they have the right to boo if they want to. But I also have the right to call them thoughtless jerks and simpletons.
I'm not philosphically opposed to booing, mind you. I think there are situations where it's defensible. But Dodger fans have no idea where to draw that line.
Maybe JoeyP and I can write long e-mails to each other like Thomas Jefferson and John Adams, to discuss the virtues of baseball executives in the same way Jefferson and Adams discussed ideal forms of governments, but for now, I would certainly like to turn the page.
There's that and never try to match wits with a Sicilian when death is on the line.
Assuming you can allow for fans to boo at any time, why is it so difficult to accept that many fans felt sighted by Piazza when he (by all accounts) essentially demanded the 1st $100 million contract in baseball and when he didn't get it in cut off all negotiations signally (to many observes) that he would go to the highest bidder. Given that this was a player who (most likely) would never have been drafted if not for Tommy, and later while tolling in the minors was talked out of retiring (or so the story went) by the organization. It does not seem unreasonable that many fans would feel a certain level of betrayal when Piazza seemingly showed no loyalty to the Dodgers, and felt a desire to express themselves.
That said I strongly feel that McCourt should have some sort of ceremony/event to recognize the career of a great former dodger, and I think it would go over very well with dodger fans.
Jon says it is unfair to draw inferences from one or two anecdotes, but those are just the anecdotes we have heard about, and McCourt would have had first hand knowledge of others of their kind, if there were any. And what are the anecdotes we know about? One is that in the Dodger offices when people tried talking to DePo face to face he told them to sends him e-mails instead. Now, I'm sorry, even though communicating via e-mail is still communicating, when you tell people something like that you are going to be branded as lacking people skills. And you are going to get called "Google Boy." No two ways about it. The other anecdote we have relates to DePo's behavio at the Dodgers' yearly "organizational meeting" the week before DePo was fired. That annual meeting is one where all the scouts and other behind-the scenes personnel who don't usually come to Dodger Stadium come together to be part of discussions on the state of the organization and talk about needs to be addressed in the off-season. It is a time when there is a lot of mingling and "pressing the flesh" going on, the kind of stuff that Billy Beane was depicted doing in Moneyball with high skill. Supposedly, McCourt noticed that DePo was being the proverbial wallflower at this event. DePo spoke to a total TWO people in a big room full of people he was supposed to be leading, and that really bothered McCourt, who went out of his way to talk to everybody -- sort of "rallying the troops" -- and expected DePo to be doing the same thing.
I don't think anybody here familiar with Dave Cameron at USS Mariner is going to call him Old School or hostile to the saber-types, He knows his sabermetrics, but he also has contacts in the baseball industry,and he said at USS Mariner one day, in the comments section of a post, that he had it on good authority that everybody in the Dodger organization hated working for DePo. He said that DePo just lacked what it takes to be the face of an organization and is better suited to be an assistant in the background. I don't disagree with that.
{slinks away}
There are some fields, advertising for one or any type of selling...that does require quite a bit of personality. But, the level of one's people skills would probably be reflected in their production anyways.
option 1 - work on this, or work around it.
option 2 - fire employee regardless of other possible positives.
isn't this like ignoring LaRoche's complete body of work and focusing on his lack of power during his call-up last year?
Frank must have too high of opinion of just how important baseball is.
The point you make is a good one...if we're talking about war and having good Generals that make decisions, lead, and increase morale.
However, in baseball there is nothing of that. In fact, Kevin Towers just the other day said he would want his clubhouse's morale to be low, bc their playing bad. Like 149 put it, this stuff is all intangibles and if you get caught hanging onto intangibles at the expense of things that actually matter, it'll kill your efficiency. This doesnt just apply to baseball, it applies to all corporate business.
Monticello3: JA did you see BO dbate HRC?
Braintree2: No watched AI!
Monticello3: What about Dancing?
Braintree2: Oh Kristi totally deserved that!
Monticello3: What about fiscal policy?
Braintree2: GTG JQA is here! :-)
167 Maybe Hamilton and Burr could have just texted each other.
AH10: What?
ABVP: I want a duel!
AH10: Duel what?
ABVP: Pistols at dawn?
AH10: Why?
ABVP: Hmmm... BRB
AH10: Dude, I'm sorry!
ABVP: Too late.
[GPS coordinates for Weehawken, NJ sent]
at the Wooden-Scully for the Kids event, but I want to
dress it up a little.
What we need here is a new post.
Criticize Chad Billingsley? That's a night in the box.
What could they do?
I hear the tapes of their respective "injuries" were submitted to the league offices, and mysteriously destroyed.
I cheered for Drew and Kent.
I sat on my hands and did nothing when Julio Lugo's name was announced.
Make sure it doesn't cover your GoldenPalace.com tatoo though.
Isn't there a secretary named Woods in the front office?
The thing is that in order to make trades or sign FA's a GM has to be able to communicate. Also in order for everyone under you to be on the same page communication is a must. You don't have to be great but you do have to at least be good at it. From all accounts Depo wasn't.
I don't understand why Dan Evans gets such a bad rap. When he took over he had no budget to work with, malone had already blown all the $$, so he did the best he could without raising the payroll. Add to that he was the one responsible for rebuilding the farm system. He brought in Logan White who in tern drafted Martin, Loney, LaRouche, Bills, Kemp and Kershaw. Before mccourt took over he had a deal worked out with Vlad. If I could buy the team the first thing I'd do is fire colletti and bring back Evans as Pres. and put in Kim as GM. Of course I'd also want a new manager and would see if Gibby was interested.
But I can't resist this one more comment just for the fun of it. What I said in 78 was: There are three basic skills and they are technical skills, conceptual skills, and people skills and they are usually learned and developed in that order. A GM should have all three and Depo did not.
Not that I was or wasn't referring to people skills mostly but it wasn't me that looked at the three skills I mentioned and picked out people skills as the skill Depo was missing.
It isn't that people don't have these skills because they do to some degree and I would think more so if they get promoted into higher positions. For a smart, high IQ person, technical skills are the first and easiest to obtain and people skills are usually slower to develop and may be even harder to develop if a person is very smart. They get things quicker and might have less patience with those that can't keep up.
Looking at this differently, some believe Jerry West was a lousy coach because he usually didn't have to spend time breaking down and practicing the basics, he just did them naturally and expected others to do so as well. How do you teach when you skip the learning process yourself.
A GM should be judged on based on resources available. Or more simply---ROI (return on investment), and ROA (return on assets). DePo didnt have many home grown assets, nor was the free agent budget such that you can judge his 2005 season the same way as other seasons.
You're taking the "bottomline" to literally. A GM's job is to allocate resources, asset management and acquisition. The W/L record does not always coincide perfectly with them.
194 - I assumed you only meant people skills, since that's the topic that usually comes up, and I didn't think you actually thought that DePo had no skills of any kind. The idea that DePo doesn't have technical or conceptual skills is so far off the map that it didn't occur to me it merited addressing.
2008: NL 4.58 AL 4.38
2007: NL 4.71 AL 4.9
2006: NL 4.76 AL 4.97
Stolen bases start to look good again.
The NL scores more RPG than the AL? Thats surprising. When was that last time the NL scored more runs per game than the AL in a season?
The teaser for this FoxSports.com story is:
"If Mike Piazza's numbers weren't Hall-worthy, Mike Vaccaro would vote him in for making New Yorkers care about the Mets again."
Now there's a standard of excellence!
Plus, don't teams usually score more runs in June, July, August as the temperature gets higher, allowing the ball to fly more?
I think it's simply the recognition that the stolen base, when used properly, can be a huge asset to any team's game.
I sure didn't. I fully expected a four team race to the wire, or at least three teams with the older San Diego fading in September.
Is home field advantage really that important?
I suspect in a couple of years (or months, if we're lucky), we'll hear how everybody thought Colletti's hairpiece smelled like Brylcream and nobody could stand being within four feet of him.
Small sample size means a lot when we're hashing out the alleged details behind any GM's firing. We don't exactly have a lot of facts to work with here.
Actually, the point was that this entire argument quickly takes on a heard-it-from-a-friend-who.. tone that makes it hard to sort fact from fiction. Which, probably, is why we have these assumptions and half-truths about every former GM and the reasons behind his firing.
For the record, I was always an Evans loyalist, still am in many ways, but the look-the-other-way Evans of the Mitchell Report was as disappointing as the LoDuca and Gagne revelations.
Now about Brandon Phillips....
http://home.istar.ca/~mbein/Baseball/MLR.JPG
And SB, (looks strongly anti-correlated)
http://home.istar.ca/~mbein/Baseball/MLSB.JPG
And no, I didn't make up that bit on Evans. I was told Evans was not a popular figure in LA. But I don't put a lot of stock in that information, just as I don't in the DePo party story. No offense intended.
I will be at the game tonight in the first row behind home plate. You better believe I will be representing and wearing my blue DT t-shirt. Look for me on TV!
And I really do appreciate you not discussing the results of the game as I am looking forward to watching it tonight.
LOL
When I have a rooting interest in the game I "work" from home, but no such luck this year.
Anyway, what I was trying to say, which wasn't really worth it anyway, is that...
Matt Kemp and James Loney are on pace to become the 26th and 27th players since World War II to finish a season with 100 RBI and fewer than 15 home runs. Kemp's on pace for 11 HR and 106 RBI, Loney 14 HR and 103 RBI.
Make sure to be on your cell phone and waving to the camera a lot.
Also make sure Ian Ziering doesn't steal your food.
The problem is that the human constructing the model thinks that he or she understands the phenomenon in question, and so cause and effect, but in no instance can that be said to be true.
And the "variance" is THE point. The laws of physics are the laws of physics, and so have predictive value, because those laws are grounded in local INVARIANCE principles, to wit, local invariance with respect to frames moving at a constant velocity, local translational invariance, local rotational invariance, and, lastly, local time-translational invariance.
And from the author of The Physics of Baseball:
"My widely read book, entitled 'The Physics of Baseball', dissects the game and reveals underappreciated or previously misunderstood information about the sport. It only follows that sabermatricians would co-opt my style and use a more data-oriented form of analysis to extract similar types of conclusions. But it is starting to get out of hand. All of you self-professed 'baseball analysts' who have jumped on the bandwagon recently where is the underlying physics behind your work? Why the messianic insistence in using VORP instead of the Principle of Inertia when predicting a pitcher's GB/FB ratio for 2007? Why do the 'new breed' of GMs hire number crunching statistical assistants none of whom can explain why a curveball curves, let alone why Barry Zito's is so effective instead of Ph.D.'s in fluid mechanics when they need advice on whether or not it is worth signing a journeyman pitcher to a four-year contract?
The scientific method is an indispensable tool when it comes to revealing the truth and beauty in the world we see around us. I owe my career to the scientific community that fostered my early career and allowed my work to flourish, to the Faradays and Helmholtzes and Chandrasekhars who elegantly and brilliantly showed all scientists how to perform great research. These lessons have been lost on the current crop of statistic-obsessed writers who have deviated down the path of accounting, rather than that of physics. Their never-ending number twiddling profoundly bores me, and introduces little that the great Branch Rickey didn't already bring to the game some sixty years ago. They race each other to be the first to invent a complex metric with a fancy-sounding acronym for a title, all while foregoing any discussion of the Stokes Drag Force law. In other words, they ignore the most basic underlying principles that describe player performance, while couching their arguments in my style of analytical rhetoric in the hope that their WARPs and LOOGYs can gain scientific credibility.
I pause for thought and am struck with the occasional pangs of fear. There are people who wish take account of the Steroid Era by restructuring the baseball record book. Do they really plan to reconfigure a decade's worth of home run numbers without any consideration of the Reynolds Number for near-spherical objects moving through a viscous fluid? Others wish to compare fielding across different eras by adjusting Fielding Runs Above Replacement for All-Time. How can such a calculation be valid without rigorous measurements of the coefficients of static and kinetic friction of both grass and turf, extrapolated over several decades of baseball groundskeeping? At what point between the time I introduced objective analysis to the sport of baseball and the present day did this knowledge of basic physics become lost?"
See: http://www.yard-work.org/?p=620
Re knowledge of basic physics being lost, re fielding metrics, from the Hardball Times:
"For each year, Dewan finds the probability of fielding a ball based on where it went (distance, direction), the batted ball type (fly ball, line drive, etc.), and whether the ball was hit hard, medium, or soft."
Tom, physics does not express motion in terms of "hard", "medium" and "soft", but instead in such units as meters per second. Now to continue:
"So if on a hard ground ball to Vector 17, the shortstop only has a 10% chance of making a play, and he does, then he is credit[ed] with 1 -.1 = .9 plays above average. If he does not make the play, he is credited with 0 - .1 = -.1 plays above average. Dewan runs this analysis on every ball put into play in each of the past three seasons, and adds up the results for every player in the major leagues. The resulting rating is the player's plus/minus."
Tom, you don't get to make up your own math. The ball in question could either have been caught by some living human, or not. I am not going use ground balls, since "fly" balls are easier to conceptualize/visualize.
Do you remember those "fun" problems from our younger school days? Train A left the station at 10:00 a.m., traveling at 35 miles per hour, while Train B left the station at . It is the same here in baseball. We need not waste our time on absurd notions of hard, medium, and soft, and even more absurd notions of an x % chance of catching the ball. In order for the fielder to have been able to catch the batted fly ball, it must be true that his path of travel could have intersected the path of travel of the batted fly ball before the batted fly ball struck the ground.
And, Tom, since this is all after the fact, we don't care about balls that were caught. We will simply credit the soul for catching the ball. What we care about is the ball not caught. And we don't need someone either at the game or watching the film, trying to feebly and rather subjectively discern whether that ball was a fly ball, a line drive, hard, medium, or soft. Instead, the stat heads might try determining: (1) the exact location of the fielder when the ball was struck, (2) the exact of location of where the ball struck the ground, (3) the flight time of the batted ball, (4) the reaction time of the fielder, (5) the fielder's acceleration and velocity.
Since this is after the fact, we can know the flight time of the ball. That flight time limits the time within which the fielder's path of travel must intersect the path of travel of the ball before the ball strikes the ground. So measure the distance between the location where the ball struck the ground and the location of the fielder when the ball was struck. And so the fielder must have been able to cover X feet in T seconds. Knowing the fielder's reaction time and his rate of acceleration and maximum sustainable velocity will answer the question: could and should he have caught that ball. We probably don't need to be too precise here, so you can sub-in his speed in the 40 yard dash as an acceptable substitute, i.e., take the 40 yards over his time for same, and there's his velocity. Take the flight time of the ball, subtract time spent waiting for the fielder to react, and then take the remaining time and multiply by his velocity. The number you get will be the distance that he might have covered while the batted ball was still in flight. And, again, we know the distance between where the ball struck and where he was when that occurred. So compare the two distances and you will know whether it was possible for the respective paths of travel to have intersected.
Now, to continue with grounders, it's more or less the same analysis. We are doing this after the fact, and so we know how long it took the groundball to leave the infield. We know the relative distances. We know the reaction time. And if you like the play made on the outfield grass, well, take the time that it took the ball to get to some reasonable point beyond the infield. As you can imagine, one of the things that we are measuring here, at least conceptually [and more on concept in a bit], but one of those conceptual matters is the fielder's recognition of his correct path of travel. Going back to what I just said, sometimes we don't want to run in a straight line across the infield to catch the ball. Given the available time and respective "speeds", we might want to intersect the ball past that line.
If you wish to take the analysis one step further, here to account for some "variance" on the part of the individual player, you might also consult an expert in human factors. The human factors expert will help you when it comes to the analysis of human error in vision, perception, and attention.
And, Tom, I am sorry, as I believe that you mean well, but there was never a need to tell me that you use models, as I am familiar with the same from my statistics studies at UCLA. But I am wondering why a discussion and application of the clearly applicable physics never makes into a discussion and computation of any fielding analysis on the part of the metrics-heads [as I call you and the others].
Re things nuanced, you wrote:
"However, extensive research and statistical modeling shows that the batter-pitcher matchup is not dominated by one or the other participant."
Tom, if we take a league average OBP of .350, well, then pitchers have been dominating the game. If you don't call it dominance, then what do you call winning 65% of the battles in your war? And, Tom, back to concept, and so the very concept of the game dictates that the pitcher versus batter matchup takes place in the context of the fielders being on the field to assist the pitcher in recording the out on the ball in play. And it isn't "luck", it's the concept and design of the game. With that in mind, let me be more precise in my use of the English language, and so the pitcher-fielders combo has been dominating the batters since well before I was born some 45 years ago. Does that work for you?
And for more on concept, I recently had occasion to read a rather snarky Baseball Prospectus article on the purported "three true outcomes", which BP reports are the HR, the K, and the BB. Tom, who records the putout on the K? And if the catcher does not catch strike three, what happens? Now pretend that we have no catcher and for some insane reason, the umpire allows the game to continue. So the pitcher, call him the greatest strikeout pitcher in the history of the game, and, well, he's still pitching that same half-inning, as he K'd the first batter, who reached first base following his third swing and miss, as there was no catcher to catch the ball, and he took second on the next pitch, since again, there was no catcher to catch the ball. And he reached home safely on the third swing and miss for batter no. 2, since, again, there was no catcher to catch the ball. And batter no. 2 himself reached first base safely, again, because there was no catcher to catch the ball. And so it would continue for infinity. I understand the point that some are trying to make, but calling the K a true outcome demonstrates a startling lack of intellectual rigor and is simply sloppy in the extreme.
And for the incomplete, and some nuance too, recall what I said above re human factors. Does the pitcher share in that equally with the batter? How much does a curveball break? Viewed from above, the best curveball has a break of no more than 3.5 feet from a straight line to the catcher and it travels in a smooth arc. But that is viewed from above. From the batter's perspective, another matter, the break can be between 12 and 14 feet.
And so perception here is critical, and that explains why it is critically important that the pitcher gets to decide what and where he throws and so now the hitter has precious little time to decide which pitch and going where [it's in the hundreds of milliseconds]. And, Tom, it's called tactical surprise and it's just as useful and advantageous on the field of baseball as it is on the field of war. And I don't think that any rational soul would dispute that the batting results would be different if the pitchers always hit their spots and the batter knew what pitch and which spot. And so you see the tactical surprise, the first element of the same in war is where the attack occurs, here that's pitch location, next is axis of attack, here that's pitch selection and release point, leaving the batter roughly 400 milliseconds to decide on his counterattack [or to not counter the attack].
Lastly, truly, but for the singular and elemental reason why I don't buy into the new math, McCauley, from his Dynamics of Markets: Econophysics and Finance, Cambridge University Press:
"The main tool used in the past in economics was regression analysis, which so far has not led to any significant insight into economic phenomenon. Regression analysis cannot be used to isolate cause and effect and therefore does not lead to new qualitative understanding..."
And so WARP, VORP, etc., don't really add anything new. We already had OBP and SLG for batters. All we ever needed for comparison purposes was, generally, league average, and player specifically, the other fellow's OBP and SLG. And so not only did you not give us anything new, you gave us the horrid and wretched when it comes to fielding. My speculation is that Dewan and Davenport probably never took so much as a single course in physics. Speculation aside, one thing is certain, which is that both demonstrate a singular conceptual failure when it comes to the understanding and analysis of the quality of a particular MLB player's skill as a fielder. The other problem here is that the stat-heads usually only concern themselves with the matter of "is", and never bother to ask themselves "why". Those inviolate laws of physics were arrived at without any statistical analysis. Did you know that? But years, hundreds of years, following the discovery of the law of gravity, we have this alarming report from Rein Taagepera, of the U of C at Irvine and the U of Tartu, Estonia:
"It became most evident in June 2004 as I observed a student at the University of Tartu present another mindless linear regression exercise, this time haughtily dismissing a quantitatively predictive model I had published, even while that model accounted for 75 of the variation in the output variable. Right there, I sketched the following test.
Given synthetic data that fitted the universal law of gravitation near-perfectly, how many social scientists would discover the underlying regularity? See Chapter 2 for the blatantly negative outcome. Like nearly all regularities in physics, the gravitation law i[s] nonlinear. If there were such law-like social regularities, purely statistics-oriented social science would seem unable to pin them down even in the absence of random scatter!"
And so you wish me to trust a linear regression analysis, when the odds are pretty good that if given near perfect data, that you and the rest wouldn't be able to discern the already discovered law of gravity? More specifically, if you and the rest can find the law of gravity in near perfect data, why on earth or in heaven should I believe that you and the rest can even begin to describe just how many wins a particular player is responsible for? And never mind the failure of concept, here being that it takes at least nine souls to play and win the game. And so you get the concept:
1.00Objectives of the Game.
1.01 Baseball is a game between two teams of nine players each, under direction of a manager, played on an enclosed field in accordance with these rules, under jurisdiction of one or more umpires.
Do you understand now, the futility and absurdity of trying to "isolate" the 1 from the other 8? It is NOT the concept of the game. You and the others are trying to isolate that which cannot be isolated.
Shimmin, I think you're being called out.
It's 2773 words long!
It was easy, I cut out all my direct quotes from the published legal opinion.
Slacker.
Although I'm a Tottenham fan, My uncle is a long time season ticket holder for Chelsea, and he took me to see these two teams play at the in the community shield at Wembley, which ended nearly the same exact way for those who follow soccer. Disappointing to say the least..
anyone else notice that edinson volquez is the only non-white player on the all-surprise team? dont know what that says, but it just jumped out at me...
Ardoin said he was sorry.
Note: I do not know for sure that he injured Garciaparra, but I am going to accuse him of it. Ardoin is, after all, French-Canadian*.
**Note: I do not know for sure that Ardoin is French-Canadian.
:-P
245 - Well at least the two of them are now friends and Ardoin apologized 200 times for the accident and so on. But yeah Andy must feel a little either bitter or at least bemused by the karma.
Ardoin is Cajun I believe.
And um...238.......that's a really long post dude.
210. I never heard that about Evans. Although in an obscure interview I read with Kim, she said she enjoyed working with Evans, take it for what it's worth.
Because at a certain point, "I'm sorry" doesn't cut it.
But what can LaRoche really be mad about? It wasn't like Ardoin took a baseball bat to his thumb. It was just an accident.
The ushers in that section will actually come scold you if you wave at the camera. I believe you have to resort to the old "watch me as I take my cap off right now" trick when on the phone with friends.
It would be just like a sneaky French-Canadian to go and say he's Cajun.
*Note: I may not actually be tellin' ya.
If you want to call that an "accident," logical minds can agree.
But don't we really know the truth?
See 222 for better info.
In a sense, he is French-Canadian. He's probably a direct descendant from Evangeline.
So let's pretend that I came up with something funny. Oh, how we laughed at Humma's wit!
Then we moved on.
That's my son, you pothead!
For what it's worth, I always laugh at the name "Spawn of Kavula".
But then again, I laugh at the name Dick Pole, so there we are.
someone has way too much time on their hands...
"My speculation is that Dewan and Davenport probably never took so much as a single course in physics."
The hell? This is relevant, how?
What a pompous load of self-indulgent nonsense. You usually have to be the parent of a 3-month-old to get that kind of a diaperful, or a reader of the Times' sports section.
My quick list:
Paul O'Neill
Chris Sabo
Hal Morris
Rob Dibble
Pete Rose
Marge Schott
Ryan Freel
That's about all I can think of.
And, friend, anyone can invent any number. It doesn't mean that number (a) has any value and/or (b) has some value beyond some other already existing number with a value.
And the man who wrote the piece is Robert Adair, a Sterling professor of physics at Yale, now retired. He was also once the official physicist of the National League:
http://www.popularmechanics.com/blogs/science_news/4256812.html
And if you have something more than an argument purely against the man, which, if you don't know, is a logical fallacy, then by all means...
Brett Tomko
Eddie Milner
Gary Redus
Ray Knight
Rawly Eastwick
Pete Rose
Pete Rose
Pete Rose
Pete Rose
Pete Rose
Woody Woodward
I was going to list Dibble, but I always got a kick of two things for shear entertainment purposes:
1) Giving up a walk-off HR at Shea to Bonilla (?) and ripping his jersey off as he stormed off the field.
2) The "you wanna be treated like a man?" locker room fight with Lou Piniella. I don't think I've ever seen two men's faces more red than theirs.
It was Bonilla.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN199208300.shtml
Lots of former and future Dodgers in that game.
For the Mets
Eddie Murray
Jeff Kent
Chris Donnels
Todd Hundley
Bonilla
Sid Fernandez
For the Reds
Tim Belcher
Geronimo Berroa
May 30, 2007 - Kobe demands trade.
May 6, 2008 - At MVP celebration says he wants to be a Laker for life.
May 21, 2008 - He and the Lakers return to Conference Finals for the first time since 2004.
Patterson cf
Hairston ss
Griffey rf
Phillips 2b
Dunn lf
Encarnacion 3b
Votto 1b
Bako c
Cueto p
Pierre, LF
Ethier, RF
Martin, C
Kent, 2B
Loney, 1B
Kemp, CF
DeWitt, 3B
Hu, SS
Kuroda, P
As Tom points out, baseball outcomes are highly linear by the nature of the rules, even if the underlying processes that drive the outcomes are phenomenally complex (extraordinarily talented human beings trying to do difficult physical/mental things versus each other over and over again). So you actually get pretty far with linear tools in your understanding of what elements cause wins. And certainly by using them well you get a lot further than would have been possible a few years ago.
256 I am. Hi Mike.
They are 14-14 in NBA Finals.
I'm off to the game, and as I said I will be wearing my DT shirt in the front row behind home plate. Wave to me! :)
FYI, this weekend I get married and then disappear to Hawaii for two weeks, so you won't get to listen to my worthless comments for a while anyway. I know you will keep the Dodger analysis going while I'm gone so I have plenty of stuff to read upon my return.
Let's get the sweep tonight!
It is the longest. The only other 2-day stretches with identical 1-8 lineups were April 28-29 in Colorado and May 2-3 in Florida.
303
What a whirlwind time for you bryanf, aka the first DTer I met at last year's DT Day. Have a great time, but watch out for errant sniper fire tonight.
Foster
Rose
Morgan
Gullett
Perez
Carbo
That skinny centerfielder
Concepcion
Hell, the whole team in the 70's. Hated em all
305 yes Eric we were the early birds at DT day last year. Can't wait for this year... ;)
how much are those twickets Brian?
Another particularly absurd non-sequitur is bringing up Dewan and Davenport's facility with physics. The subject here is statistics, and if the author wanted to criticize their use and derivation of same his argument would stand up a lot better. As it happens, he didn't. It's about as silly as saying somebody has to have a background in aerodynamics in order to become a pitcher, or in leathermaking to become a good defensive outfielder.
People don't pay for those tickets. Like Cosmo Kramer says, corporations just write them off.
He'll use Latin on your birthday.
Coincidence?
I think so....
Since some here appear to be lawyers, so am I, and I do the physics on a routine basis, but since I don't plan on being the lawyer and the expert in the same case, as the rules of ethics rule that out, I hire the accident reconstructionist. He doesn't speak in terms of the car going fast, medium or slow, and there being a 10% chance of collision, as that would be absurd.
It isn't any different here, and so instead of "intersecting", think of the fielder "colliding" with the ball [which does indeed happen when ball meets glove], and so ask whether the fielder's position, his reaction time, his speed, and the flight time of ball, allowed for a "collision" [given that we already know just where the ball landed].
The problem I have with "win shares" and "wins contributed" is that you can't isolate the one soul in a game conceptualized and designed for the interaction of 9 souls. Since you appear to be familiar with statistical analysis, then you know that we must try to rid ourselves of confounding variables. How do you do that when the game is conceptualized and designed for the interaction of 9 souls? You can't. The CF was playing where he was because the lumbering Adam Dunn was in left field. And that might be why he just missed the fly ball into the gap in right field. But we charge the double to the pitcher, and the batter is credited for the same. But the at-bat might have played differently if Carl Crawford had been in left and so no reason for the CF to shade to left field.
And even if Carl Crawford was in left in lieu of Adam Dunn, maybe it wasn't any player's failure to perform, but the manager's decision with respect to fielder positioning. It might not make sense, but the manager could have had the CF positioned in the gap in RF and so an out would likely have been recorded.
That's the inherent problem in all of this. And so I simply don't for a moment see how we can "isolate" one individual's performance and say that he contributed a win. We can say that he's good, maybe better than most of his peers, but I don't see how we can allocate win shares and win contributions.
My soon to be father in law also has baseline box sears right next to the dugout ... Just another reason to get married
We can say that he's good, maybe better than most of his peers, but I don't see how we can allocate win shares and win contributions.
A lack of imagination is thus the sum total of your argument against Win Shares? There are some good and compelling ones out there. This is not one of them.
Where are you taking your father in law for the honeymoon again? :)
Why does SI think Napoli is a rookie? Do they only watch ESPN?
In fairness, I guess there aren't a lot of catchers who you could say are surprises this year.
The only one I can think of is Geisha. Which isn't what the G in GM stands for.
Every time Repent or Burn brings up the "email me," thing, I can't believe anybody doesn't wish that people would email them, instead of chatting at them interminably. Isn't it better to get it in writing? And, though I have no direct experience with this, isn't it much better for dealing with subordinates? To me, it's the chatters who lack people skills--imposing themselves on other people who are busy, and then getting snippy about their victims not being grateful for the imposition.
I read The Big Post. As has been alluded to, the big introductory quote is a joke. Yard Work puts the names of real people at the top of pretend essays. So, that's a little unfortunate.
The point of the post is that VORP is worthless because it's not perfect. To the extent that anybody thinks it is (I'm not convinced there is such a person, but supposing there might be), he's wrong. But it's an obvious mistake to say that an imperfect model is worthless. And one who is so disposed to physics should now that, since our physical models of the universe are not perfect.
Throwing out what you know because you know that there are things you don't (and can't, yet) know is patently bizarre. And not something anybody actually does. If you have a child, you cannot possibly know whether the book you're reading him is the best possible book for him to hear, right now. So, does it really not matter whether you read him Tom Sawyer or Penthouse Forum? Is there any way of arguing that Tom Sawyer is better for a kid that isn't unscientific?
He deserves not only a Day but a retiring of his number 31.
He will most likely go in the HOF as a Met and the Mets deserve that.
I don't think the Dodgers will retire his number because he doesn't fit the criteria,
because he played more games for the Mets.
He was the greatest catcher we ever had in L.A. His offense is all that ever mattered.
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