That happens to me a lot.

http://www.tnt.tv/sports/nba/playoffs08_live/

I'm asking because I heard Vinnie mention it's on KCAL today and that means I don't get it out here on the deep.

That's partly because music critics seems to have a scornful attitude toward artists who cover songs they didn't write.

I don't know "Find a River" -- I gave up on R.E.M. years ago because I hated "Monster" -- but assuming it's as good as you say, wouldn't it be great if other singers could unearth it and give it more exposure?

I never much enjoyed Linda Ronstadt's versions of Little Feat songs, but she deserves a lot of credit for bringing them new fans.

P.S. Lately I'm re-stuck on Van Morrison. "It's Too Late To Stop Now," a great live album, was recently reissued. Tremendous performance by a singer with no boundaries.

Help! I need resuscitation!

The Byrds have a nice cover of "Willin'" though, from their Clarence White era. And "Truck Stop Girl."

Folks, there was a time when Linda Ronstadt was as hot as Jessica Alba. Or so we thought back in the olden days.

It's very windy here in South Pasadena, which is also rare.

Hairston's out after on AB.

Stand down.

Heh.

The green necklace.

sometimes I really do need to engage my brain before posting

(palm to forehead)

he looks so lifelike!

It was the final out in Game 3. The Dodgers won 1-0.

(missing Vin)

1. I personally don't use anything from the Fielding Bible (Dewan) or Clay Davenport. I do use some BIS data strung third-hand in my projections, but it's to determine regression populations rather than to adjust the hard data.

2. There is a difference between assigning past wins to players and projecting a player's contribution. I've only briefly dabbled in the former; it is the latter I am concerned with. As an aside, I also don't think that the term soul is particularly accurate or helpful in this discussion, and I don't mean that as some sort of atheistic objection to the concept itself but rather in order to be precise about what we are attempting to measure.

3. I don't think you've presented an argument against breaking down the game into components to express future value in terms of runs and wins. That's really been my main objection to NC, and it's been relevant every time I've criticized one or more of his moves.

4. I've written many, many more words on less significant baseball topics than 2773 or whatever Bob said that 228 was. But we all knew that, probably.

5. I agree pretty strongly that GB, FB, LD is not a particularly accurate way to divide our observations up. I still use them in my work because the full hit location data is not available. I see this as a weakness, not a flaw that invalidates the model. That is, putting each batted ball into one of three buckets does a service to analysis, but it does not do so completely. Analysts like Tango, MGL, Studes, etc. that have influenced me all basically agree that we want the data to continue to get more granular.

6. In my own projections, I regress fielding pretty heavily. I do this in part because the data streams have the flaws you are elucidating. Since I'm not a decision-maker in baseball, I've decided not to put a lot of my time into working on fielding metrics with the extant data. When people disagree with my assessments of defense, I'm pretty deferential.

7. Hitting projections are pretty well done in the status quo. Projecting a pitcher's fielding-independent numbers (K, BB, HR) is also pretty accurate. My point about the distinction between projection and prediction is that I think teams need to be able to determine expected contribution in terms of runs. The point is getting the best estimate.

8. Me personally? I don't think that any modeling of human behavior is very accurate. I don't have a high opinion of the human sciences as presently constituted. That's kind of the reason why I like baseball. Baseball is a very controlled environment, and its incredible number of variables pales in comparison to anything else I spend time thinking about. Baseball is a simple game with a rich and deep set of issues that make analyzing it interesting because reasonable best estimates are often easy to develop. I don't think we can model the day-to-day lives of baseball players very well, and I don't think any team can do that. So the human factor that is missing from my models is completely conceded. My model, as is the case with everybody else's model, statistical or otherwise, will do a bad job in terms of the human factor. The non-human elements in the model, though, are very strong, and it's my opinion that they are considerably stronger (though accurate on the same level of magnitude) than the mainstream baseball assessments. That opinion is based on data, and I don't think that it functions beyond a shadow of a doubt but merely beyond doubt. And in part, the model succeeds because it systematically uses empirical data to figure out how much weight the human factor gets, and then basically regresses the human factor completely to the mean. I think that teams and media types and many fans generally give the human factor too much weight. Even when they weight it properly, they are often using such a small sample that they should be regressing it quite a bit but do not.

9. While I'm frankly not a fan of any Baseball Prospectus stat, I don't know what you mean by arguing that BA/OBP/SLG tell us all. If we know how to read them, then sure, they tell us basically all we need to know about how well somebody hit over the sample. Converting it to runs (or wins) is to make it coherent. Some of the newfangled metrics don't accomplish that, and perhaps I should even say many of them. BP especially I think is guilty of sometimes looking to get a better RMSE and in so doing neglecting the theoretical building blocks of the model. Tangotiger, who personally has been a much bigger influence for me, has really worked hard against such sloppiness, and Brandon (Patriot) has repeatedly done the dirty work to show the egregious instances. However, I think you're using someone else's bath water to justify tossing my baby. I pretty strongly believe in using theoretical models instead of simple regression coefficients. Regression is a tool that can be useful in looking for things, but when you find what you are looking for you need to deploy a theoretical attitude and use rigor. If that rigor leads you to use regression within a model, that is fine. Linear weights are verified by regression analysis, but it is the underlying theoretical work that convinced me to use them.

10. Baseball is a team game, and I don't analyze teams without looking at the interrelation of the team's elements. But the batter-pitcher matchup is between two individuals. The teams impact every PA, so there is no illusion that it is just the two individuals: there is fielding, defensive positioning, game state/score/etc., the catcher, runners on base, etc. The point of breaking down a team into its individuals isn't to argue that it is not a team game or that analyzing individuals alone will suffice. It's just a question of whether or not we want to try to analyze the individuals, and I don't see how anybody could argue that we shouldn't try to if we're analyzing baseball. Very much of the batter-pitcher matchup can be understood by understanding the skills of the individual batter and pitcher in the context of the spread of skills in baseball as a whole. It is folly to argue that the .333 OBP means that the pitcher is dominating. This is only the case if the game was created with the theoretical goal of a .500 OBP. I could easily counter by arguing that with about 4.5 runs per game, there is a perfect balance: on average, the offense scores a run every other inning. Who dominates who in absolute terms is something that may be useful for historical comparison, but in projecting player contributions we are really looking to evaluate players relative to the population of available players. Perhaps you can use physics to show that the pitcher 'dominates' the batter-pitcher interaction, but this is not the sense of domination that I mean. By domination, I mean how well they do relative to the population. Excellent starting pitchers are not so dominant that they turn all hitters into bad hitters: they are so dominant that they turn good hitters into average hitters, average hitters into bad hitters, and bad hitters into terrible hitters. The intricacies of modeling one PA are such that I will never be confident in the ability to predict an at bat, and I will never have a projection for a PA that is beyond doubt. But in the aggregate, the model is well-constructed. So for a usage like giving a flexible estimate of a player's talent level in wins above replacement, I think what I've got is just fine.

I imagine this game is going to get killed in the ratings tonight by the Lakers game and AI.

Maybe not, this Lakers game sucks so far.

Getting killed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies

In particular --

* Fallacy of Nirvana (Kurt Cobain would approve?), i.e. because VORP, etc. are not perfect they are therefore useless.
* Argument from ignorance (because he can't conceive of a means to assign win shares in a team sport that therefore such a means does not exist).
* Appeal to authority

And long-winded, too!

Lakers were down 20.

I called my friend to whine.

14-0 run since. You're welcome

Weed, whites, and wine.

I spent an evening photographing Bonnie Raitt in 2000-2001. Her father, the late John Raitt, was being honoured that evening. I had a couple of moments alone with her, and all I was able to do was talk about Lowell George, and the fact that I had admired his work for so long and knew that she appreciated it, too.

She immediately turned into a blushing schoolgirl, and said that he was her "best friend." I confessed how much I loved his vocals ("honey-in-the-sludge"), his songwriting, and his slide playing -- she told me that I'd never even heard the half of it.

One cool lady.

oh no ..... is he OK?

Thanks Brian.

I decided that ALONG time ago Andrew. :o) (jk)

Josh Bard somehow got injured on the same play.

ugh ....

First story out there on Pujols/Young.

117 I am not against the possibility of social sciences, but as presently constituted it is my belief that their epistemology is at best compromised by Eurocentric thought. That is the reasoning behind my statement in the post above. I don't have a general vendetta against them, but until the social sciences are decolonized I think they deserve 'ragging.' This criticism is far from unique to the social sciences.

The Cardinals announcers aren't speaking in hushed tones, so it might not be that bad.

Unless you're Chris Young.

Eric...so far I've had 3 small cracker jack bags and chicken fingers...

Wow that was the closest I've ever been to the golden god...

It is really freakin windy......

it doesn't look good but he was at least "clutching his bloodied face" which tells me that he was at least conscious

He did walk off the field, according to C8LIN B.

That's going to get them in trouble.

Yup .... its THAT Pete Rose .....

mlb.com item on Young injury ....

Resume shunning.

So now we get Pierre batting 4th with runners on base. Goldmine be wrong.

When you're banned, you're banned. What part of "ban" don't Rose and the Reds understand?

It's a ban. It's not a suggestion to leave.

*no, there is no such thing as a Spanish death match, I just wanted a cool sounding name for the situation where both teams fail to score.

Lakers within 2

* that would be a Padres-A's game

And The Solution comes across with the go ahead run.

And how is he defending his appearance in the booth?

My old drinking buddy is probably jumping up & down right about now.

* not really, I don't know you or "Blake"

you don't wanna know my first name believe me, but then again I was never called by my real name, I've always had a nick, thank goodness.

And Kobe says, "I am still the best player in the game"

20 seconds to play, Lakers by 2... please, no threes and no fouls gentlemen.

I think you forgot who's managing the Reds at the moment.

Stowaway!

Somewhere Mark Prior's shoulder feels a "sympathy twinge".

How does it feel to make little kids cry and give up on baseball and computers?

Dusty just came out to tell Cueto that Prior was already damaged goods when he got him.

Oh yeah, and he still has some cracker jack on his shirt.

http://tinyurl.com/54r4mq

I'm thinking of getting this one myself. I have a $25 MLB.com gift card burning a hole in my pocket.

Maybe I should buy new pants too.

:/

The lesson, as always, is that I'm an idiot.

I usually only ever see him at the forum shops on vegas

223
Non-standard colors need not apply. :)

But appearing on a broadcast either had to be cleared by Selig or else the Reds ownership is trying for a test case on the Commissioner's powers.

223 - I was thinking of a black one, I also once had one of those, raised LA in blue with a white outline. I was thinking something like this - http://tinyurl.com/3qzszr - but I'm not sure yet.

I think the fitted cap keiretsu doesn't like Americans.

http://tinyurl.com/5qrdc5

And to me, black is acceptable because it isn't a color. It is the absence of all color. And it brings contrast to blue jeans and a blue jersey.

http://tinyurl.com/6b53q5

hehehe, well played sir...

Jones was equally upbeat, reporting that the swelling and discomfort in his right knee had subsided. Of course, that was expected because he hadn't done any baseball activities for two days after being diagnosed with torn cartilage. He resumed riding an exercise bike and hit off a tee, and the club was eager to see how he comes out of that.

Jones is expected to require surgery, the only question is whether he can put it off until after the season. Familiar with playing through injuries and having never been on the disabled list in 12 seasons, he believes he can.

"Knees always bother you no matter [what], and they're things you deal with and you don't pay much attention to it," said Jones. "If it doesn't get tight, I'll be ready to play Friday if Joe wants me to play."

255
Nasal fracture sounds a lot worse than a broken nose.

http://tinyurl.com/3q85xe

Per Awful Announcing.

Yes .... I was listening to the game on the YES network, and the announcers were talking about how helpful Terry Crowley was a a hitting coach, and then this tape came on for about 5 seconds. There was then a 10-15 second silence in the YES broadcast.

It was a bit .... odd!

I'm planning on sending a birthday care package, complete with packets of Del Scorcho sauce and In-n-Out ketchup, just to piss him off.

How dare they!

If you've never watched vin sing take me out to the ballgame it really is something

Actually, it looks like they have hats for each team in each of the other team's colors. There is a Dodgers hat in the Mets orange/blue scheme. It seems a bit, um, peculiar to me.

I did send her emails, once in a while.

http://tinyurl.com/5qmvme

http://www.lids.com/pid/20097083

These are all from the "MLB Twisted" line

If you want unholy, try the Dodger hat in Giants colors.

not in this day and age

But Joe has already said he doesn't want him to play hurt. So I suppose this could get interesting.

My Creative Zen died. I was in Minneapolis, near a Macy's. There is actually a vending machine in Macy's that lets you use your Macy's card to buy an iWhatever. I stood in front of that machine for a long time before finally buying an iPod Nano Generation 3.

One of the things in my mind was the increasing irritation at the problematic interface with Rhapsody. For streaming, it's great. But I had been having problems for a year getting it to smoothly transfer music onto the Zen. Often I'd have to restart my computer, remove and redownload Rhapsody, and I had to do all the music transferring quickly or some "updating" message would appear and transfers would cease. My wife had an unerring instinct for when I was trying to do this and would choose that moment to ask me some complicated question. I'd go back to the computer and couldn't transfer any more. I'd have to start all over.

I thought about all that. I thought about how irritating Apple and Steve Jobs are. I weighed it all out--and went for it.

I love the iPod Nano. I'm sorry. I do. It's lighter and smaller and thinner -- thinner than a book of matches -- so it is a much better traveling and workout companion than my relatively clunky Zen was. With all the flying I'm doing, I have to have a reliable and lightweight music device to survive crowded flights. And it is that.

Another one bites the dust. Sorry, my fellow revolutionaries. I'm wearing the pin. I'm one of "them" now.

Resistance is futile

you shouldn't have gone to sleep.

We win!

Eh!

I was reminded why so many hearts were atwitter. But deep down, isn't he Rob Deer? Or Dave Kingman?

I got to watch the last few innings, saw Loney's blast. Hooray.

And with a day off tomorrow, and Saito liking to work frequently, I was fine with him coming in for the 9th. Stellar game pitched by his countryman, though.

The Reds did have to face the Dodgers two best pitchers... and Brad Penny.

The Cardinals will be a tougher series, since the Dodgers have more trouble with them.

Cheers!

Michael Buffer's "Let's get ready to rumble" line has "yielded more than $400 million in gross retail sales of licensed merchandise," according to CNBC's Darren Rovell.

Unbelievable.

My wife and I stand outside his room and drool. Someday.

"Also, Maza can play third base, a position the Dodgers have virtually no depth at"

Andy LaRoche says hello!

You couldn't have a better contrast. In Anaheim, with Andruw, we lose two of three and look feeble. In LA with Ethier-Kemp-Pierre, we sweep. Sure, ANA has better pitching. But it couldn't be clearer: We don't need Jones unless he's going to produce at 2006 and previous levels, and he just isn't.

And Kemp is the better CF defender of any of them.

With all due respect to Jones and assuming he doesn't have some major health problem, the smartest play might be to DFA him now.

The theory is, winning is better than losing. The Jones salary is going to waste no matter what physical space Andruw occupies. Winning games, which is easier to do without him than with him, will take away the sting of having to swallow the embarrassment.

The move could save Colletti's job. It's the kind of honest, transparent and time-sparing decision brilliant executives are expected to make. I'm no MBA, but this seems like his best course of action, (unless Jones can be DL'd and insurance can be collected.)

Your comment about DFAing Jones literally made me spit water out of my mouth it was so funny. Like Ned, who isn't one to admit his mistakes very easily, would eat over $25 million on a 2 year deal? Good luck with that.

And furthermore, I refuse to live in a world where playing Pierre in LF can be called brilliant.

I don't want to see Andruw on the field ever again. Of course, I don't want to see Pierre on the field, either. Can't we just stick LaRoche in left field and see how it goes?

Go Dodgers!

The seeds are now planted.

1. The highest leverage at-bat from a Dodger tonight came in the Russell Martin at-bat where a pass ball was thrown. This play also had the highest Win Probability Added (WPA) at a whopping .106. Talk about nice timing for the Dodgers!

2. The Reds highest leverage at-bat came from Edwin Encarnacion, when he grounded out in the 7th inning, following the walk to Adam Dunn with nobody out.

3. Closer Takashi Saito was brought into the game with the Dodgers holding a 96.5% win expectancy. Two nights in a row, where Joe Torre's SOP is to handle his closer based on the save stat, rather than how dire the situation really is.

vr, Xei

For the record, my fiancee was laughing the whole time and her parents and her were getting a kick out of my DT obsession. They kept pointing to my shirt and so I finally had to stand up and advertise. :)

We waited by the clubhouse door and met a nice Dodger fan from Toronto. He saw my shirt and said "Is that your site?" I told him no but it was a site that I frequented. He said he does too.

Loney came out and signed a lot of balls and was nice but very quiet. Kent came out and waved once and walked by everyone very rudely ignoring the kids with balls and markers. The Toronto Dodger fan yelled at him as he was going into the elevator "What if I told you I liked Motocross?!?!?" I thought it was hilarious.

And the big news is that I got a picture with The Bison! I will post a link to it as soon as possible so you can see us together. He was in a hurry so I didn't get a chance to ask him about the name. I was hoping he would see my shirt and say "Hey, Dodger Thoughts! I read that too. You guys came up with Bison right?" No dice. But still, he was super nice and took a lot of time with everyone. Picture posting soon...

Who am I kidding? I'll be posting comments from my iPhone all honeymoon-long.

I hope you take her somewhere nice like Baja Fresh.

I'm hoping you mean that in the "Don Corleone says hello" sense.

Also, I'm going to pretend I missed the above post about forsaking the Creative Zen for the iPod. The Zens are great and only getting better. Plus, no annoying DRM.

I've only sat down there once since the renovations, and i saw dontrelle stroll through while with the marlins...I didn't realize all the players exit out of there though..if that is where you got the autographs

Career/Best Single Season
Kingman: .302/.343 (only cracked .330 twice)
Deer: .324/.360 (only cracked .330 three times)
Dunn: .380/.400 (WORST season OBP: .354)

Theres also the fact that Dunn's CAREER OPS+ is higher than all but four single seasons by the other two, combined.

On an unrelated note: long time reader, first time poster, hey all.

.295 Loney-One for two, two runs, one RBI, home run.

.323 Kemp-Two for four, two runs.

.325 DeWitt-Two for four, two runs.

I really like this line-up.

108 DeWitt's been winning me over since opening day, give the man his due, he's earning it.

364 My AP kids are flipping out over my reading list. Uncle Tom's cabin and Grapes of Wrath. Fear.

I could have saved about 45 minutes of my life if I had checked iSquint. I thought it cost dough. Stupid, stupid man.

I remember meeting lebron james at a laker playoff game before he was drafted, ironically it was spurs lakes : )

That book belongs on a list with Last of the Mohicans... classic American literature that's so god-awful as to be unreadable.

You made up for it with The Grapes of Wrath, though.

Plus, they get guided reading supplements from me. The won't have to go cover to cover.

>> "Matty's getting his feel," Torre said. "He's got great instincts. With his quickness, he makes up for a first step that may be wrong. I think he'll only get better at it reading the ball off the bat." <<

http://tinyurl.com/3ov3z9

http://tinyurl.com/63fezx

http://tinyurl.com/6kztey

And not liking the Spurs either.

http://tinyurl.com/56gblt

But booing a single given up in the first inning, or a ball dropping 20 feet in front of Andruw (because he had no chance to catch it, or Brad Penny striking out batting in a game that he allowed two hits over eight shutout innings is not acceptable.

I remember bryanf. If I'm not mistaken, his now-wife is the girl who busted out the new Harry Potter book and started reading when Frank McCourt sat down with us last year. I was cracking up.