Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
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TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Good morning ...
And interviews with Larry King, Oprah, etc.
On the other hand, comments 300-250 last night which I largely missed due to the exigencies of sleep made me laugh.
Daniel saw a marmot!
Nothing. I'm saying I double majored in English and Economics, a combo I highly recommend.
The intent to ensure all literature majors know what came before is a sound one, I just don't know if its the best execution of it.
It's my (second-to) last English class for a reason, however.
He's been out a long time and you really dont hear much about him these days.
My PVL question: Do we have any idea what Free Agent rank Derek Lowe will receive?
Most likely an A.
Furcal is in jeopardy of not becoming a type A free agent if he does not play in games...which would suck for us.
But who's #1? It used to be Penny, but is it now Lowe? Not that it really matters, but I'm just curious.
new car search...really close to deciding to get a 08 Mazda 3. Still can't decide on whether sedan or hatchback, color or trim.
I am not very good at making these type of decisions.
For me, Billingsley is our best pitcher so therefore he is my #1.
But is Management now treating Lowe as #1?
Our first round picks after pick 15
2002- James Loney
2003- Chad Billingsley
2004- Scott Elbert and Blake Dewitt
2006- Bryan Morris
I realize this isn't very scientific but looking at that list, could we get a better package of prospects better than those caliber of players?
Park and Kuo are the only Dodger pitchers to have started at least 1 game and to have a winning record.
Starters:
13-24, 3rd worst in MLB
Relievers:
14-5, best in MLB
Not sure what that means, other than that our starters haven't been so good and our bullpen has been really good. It also would appear to mean that our offense is scoring late in the games for our relievers, but less so early in the games for our starters.
Also, Dodgers probably have a list of prospects that are out of options for next year, that might be trade bait for some PVL.
Greg Miller for Christian Guzman?
BHSportsguy brought up Guzman last night, and he definitely fits the mold of a Ned trade. Trading for a guy having a career year (.324 OBP not withstanding...says how bad Guzman has been all his career). Plus, Miller may not have a Dodger future, so I could see him being dealt in a deal similar.
If the Reds are out of it by July, a Dunn deal makes too much sense for the Dodgers but I'd be shocked if Ned went and got him.
Miller, Hu, Meloan for Dunn?
The primary glitch is that Guzman is a SS, not an Utility Infielder™.
The gas mileage was supposed to be high 20's, but even with my most pained efforts to drive conservatively, the best I got was 24 even. I typically got about 22. I also didn't like the 4-speed automatic (which has since been changed to 5-speed). With the 4-speed, 2nd was a little slow, but passing on the freeway was where you really benefited from the 160hp.
FWIW, a friend of mine has a 07 Mazda Speed 3, and the 270 or so HP are waaaaaay too much for the car. It's definitely fun, but the cars suspension just cannot handle it. It's really tough to stay in your own lane.
Good luck!
Shut down with shoulder tenderness although the guy who told me said it wasn't suppose to be serious, but just precautionary.
My Reaction?....Whatever, see: Scott Elbert.
Thanks for the insight! Through reading reviews and other people's insights, that seems to be right in line; good bang for my buck.
of course. does a d. lowe for dunn swap make any sense?
34 The Reds have Votto and don't need Loney. I can imagine Ned moving Ethier + someone else for Dunn. Of the two starters Ned criticized in the press, Lowe is the one now pitching better. At the risk of giving Rosenthal an iota of credibility, I can see him moving Penny.
DeJesus does have very good OBP skills and is said to be a good fielder. I think he might be able to hit better long-term than Hu/Maza.
I also think the Dodgers would have to offer Lowe arbitration. The worst-case scenario isn't awful, and a Boras client at his age at a SP-premium era is almost guaranteed to opt out.
1. It's "Cristian".
2. It's "Guzmán".
But then the acronym would lose its irony, which would be like sun on your wedding day.
Mornin' all.
Technical question: does everyone have the ability to type the accent over the a in Guzman though? Without having to remap the keyboard constantly? Spelling Cristian correctly = easy, but the other....?
In other news, Rest in Peace The Originator.
é = ALT+0233
í = ALT+0237
ó = ALT+0243
ú = ALT+0250
Also ñ=ALT+0241
http://tinyurl.com/4fxxop
I can't believe I missed it!
WOW! Thanks!. for all keyboards & OSs?
Check your private e-mail account.
Those are for PCs.
It's a lot easier for Macs.
No, I'm thinking about the Nissan Rogue, strangely enough. What I really want is a station wagon, but nobody makes a good one for the price I want to pay (Audi and Volvo too expensive; Suburu Outback very disappointing). So that leaves small SUVs, and I really liked the way the Rogue drove.
Only problems are:
(1) Rogue has no luxury items (no leather, no nav system, etc). I'm of an age where I want a few of these things.
(2) It's called the Rogue. I mean, can I really drive a car named after the most boring X-Man?
What I really want is a car that looks like the Honda CRV on the inside but drives like the Rogue. I talked to the dealers to see if they'd put the CRV innards into a Rogue, but no dice.
Apple users can use my above note or play around with Option+many things. It's a fairly straight-forward system. (option+n sets up a tilde, option+o the umlaut, etc)
As for Lowe, I would be stunned if the Dodgers didn't keep him the rest of the season, especially if they're still in the playoff hunt and nab the draft pick(s) for him. Better than anything they'd get in return, imho. And btw, he's pitching better these days, it's Penny I'm more worried about.
What an icky road trip. I knew it'd be tough, and even more so without Furcal. Thought maybe they'd get a 3-4 out of it, but, ah well. Time to make up some ground at home.
Which is what I have at the moment, Dapper in fact. But you still have to remap every time to revert to regular a, no?
Glad to be of service!
35-22--best record in the AL.
The most amazing thing is:
Carlos Pena--.733 OPS
Evan Longoria--.745 OPS
Carl Crawford--.707 OPS
Its likely that those players should improve. Navarro will almost certainly get worse (.831 OPS)..
But is their really any reason why this team cant stay in it all season?
Shields/Kazmir/Jackson/Garza---> Young & improving starting pitching.
Friedman's really done a great job for a stat geek....
The Dodgers need to take advantage of Jones being out of the lineup and see what Young can do by playing an outfield of Young, Kemp, and Ethier on a more regular basis.
vr, Xei
http://tinyurl.com/6zl8zt
Not sure if Car&Driver and Road&Track have reviewed it.
i still believe that the team constructed as is can still win the division, but as i said a few days ago a pierre and penny for dunn deal would be ok with me.
I highly recommend reading that chapter of Moneyball this week, if you haven't already. Quite interesting, also to hear some of the names of players being considered for that draft, and players Beane loved (Nick Swisher and others) vs. ones he hated that other teams loved (like Prince Fielder).
1st 6 starts
37.1 IP; 2.89 ERA; 1.31 WHIP; 1HR; 10 BB
Next 6 starts
32.2 IP; 8.81 ERA; 1.84 WHIP 5 HR; 17 BB
Has anybody seen him pitch? Is the difference obvious, other than the results? Is it pitch location?
79 Penny got away with a ton last year, and his downfall has been fairly expected. Every year since we got him his walk rate has gone up and his strikeout rate has declined.
In the last 5-6 years, I've come to the realization that I'm a pretty big A's fan.
When I was in the Santa Cruz mountains last weekend, I was picking up an FM station (106 something, I believe?) that was talking A's baseball. Maybe it was just a pre game show or something, but they were talking about Rich Harden's performance against Boston. I believe it was some kind of Rock station, too. It was one of the only stations that came in. Thought that was pretty cool. Maybe underdog or Trainwreck can fill me in.
But I'll take another look.
This year: 6 in 70 innings. Not bad, but not at his best either.
And 37Ks in 70 innings is awful.
If Penny didnt already have a very nicely priced option for 2009, he could be be a trade candidate. But given his contract, I dont think he should be dealt.
Right! Thanks.
Also, my first car was a 1987 Mercury Sable -- basically the same car as the Taurus. It had been my mom's until she got a new one. I hated that car. I realize that 20 years on, the car is probably very different... but I have a chip on my shoulder about it. Still, I appreciate the rec.
I would prefer a new car to a used car. I like to drive my cars into the ground, and I think -- though I could be wrong -- that if that's the goal, I would get more value out of a new car. But I haven't given it that much thought.
If you don't plan on having more than 3 kids, a smaller SUV with a roof rack and luggage carrier is a good option for when you need to go on vacation.
On the other hand, for my own car, I will likely want to buy some kind of hybrid, because I only use it only for commuting.
I really don't want anything as big as the Pilot -- I don't think we'll need that many seats and I don't like big SUVs. And I would prefer to have a car that got over 20 MPG.
My wife gets the small, commute-only car. She wants a Civic. She'll get it.
Do they have a hybrid minivan yet?
98 I'm afraid to look at it. Was it all one-sided or did anyone stick up for the Lakers or Angelenos?
82 I think that's KFRC, though it's changed call letters and formats so many times I've lost track. But I think they still broadcast A's content there at 106.9. I don't follow the A's that much so I could be wrong, but have stumbled on it a few times myself.
1. Nobody should buy small SUVs, because they're inferior to station wagons;
2. But because Americans don't buy station wagons, there aren't are too few on the market;
3. Therefore, Americans are stupid.
4. End of review.
Well, thanks so much for helping me make my decision.
The only problem is actually getting the type of talent he wants. If he was in charge this offseason, sending them Penny might not have been a bad idea.
I have an extra pair of seats for the Weds matinee- 12:10pm vs. Rockies. I handpicked them off stubhub. Field aisle 12, row D. Will take face obo. bigcpa@gmail.com
(Sorry for the cross-post with the ticket thread but it's a bit of a ghost town over there.)
http://tinyurl.com/668xqm
Not sure why anyone would want Junior these days, especially after all the #600 hype is gone.
Car: Uni-body
Truck: Old Ladder type frame (very heavy)
Car-framed based SUVs (like the Toyota Highlander) are similar to station wagons with a bit of height.
Most critical functions for gas mileage: Weight and wind resistance (moreso than engine size and HP).
Jenna Fischer will be on NPR's Fresh Air tomorrow morning (or whenever it airs for you locally). And available as a podcast after that. Jenna Fischer.
Stand down.
Unless the Reds have a decent center field prospect I don't know about, Pierre to the Reds could make a lot of sense this offseason.
and if pierre makes sense for the reds why do you think they would not do a pierre penny for dunn deal? penny is very cheap for 1.5 years, and if they don't get any better offers you'd think they'd have to seriously consider it.
That'd be a relatively easy trade to start off Cashman's Dodger career :-)
Barry is actually underrated defensively, he has no mobility, but he takes great routes so he still has decent range. He wasn't even one of the five worst left fielders in baseball the last few years and might not even be in the bottom 10.
Hunch. Still, if McCourt has to play to the media, might as well get a competent GM like Cashman.
I haven't considered NedCo staying another year.
--
Say, anyone know when the blernsball draft is?
What do you mean by Penny could replace the ton of cash?
That something of great value could be money.
It could also be Brad Penny, who has a contract beneficial to whatever team he plays for.
Since the Reds would probably not deal with the NL Central during the season, they would be limited to Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, Minnesota, and Texas.
In reality, Dunn does not want to be traded so I just don't think they will be able to pull a deal off during the season.
a) Loney
b) Ethier
c) Broxton
d) Kemp
1. Someone worse, or
2. Someone equivalent, but more expensive.
Sounds like the next GM search too. The good thing though is, if Ned were ever to get the axe, he'd probably deserve it.
The guy who fits the bill is Kenny Williams.
You read it here first.
Guzmán
as entered, transliterating to
Guzmán
The reason I phrased that way is because it seems that every so often the opposition will light up one of our pitchers like it's the forth of July, or they know whats comming...Lowe, Broxton, Saito, Kuroda, and I think it happened to Bills.
I think he will be fired.
And then I think Ned will be fired and Williams will be hired.
OK, I don't really think that. But I can see it happening.
143 Argh. Now that's a disturbing thought. He'll make me miss Colletti, a lot.
Last year: 10.86 K/9, 3.96 K/BB, .65 HR/9
This year: 11.77 K/9, 3.44 K/BB, .75 HR/9
Broxton's numbers are a little down from last year, but keep in mind he's only pitched 23 innings. Just like Bills' ERA was in the sixes early this year, Broxton is just having some bad luck right now. He's fine.
I actually think the reverse. From Ned's perspective, Loney's hitting .275 and leads the team in HRs and RBIs.
For the love of all things decent, the man went to Stanford!
If Colletti gets replaced, it will be for some reason like "failing to build on the playoff success of 2006."
McCourt will say something like, "Dodger fans are tired of being told to wait till next year. I believe they have waited long enough and deserve a championship in Los Angeles. Kenny Williams did that in Chicago, and now, he can do it here."
It would be the move of a man more concerned with perception than grounded baseball decisions.
If he hires White, the first question will be, "But Colletti had backed the young team that White drafted and developed. How will a White administration be different from a Colletti administration? How does he represent the change you're looking for?"
But I could be wrong. If Colletti is fired, specifically, for backing Jones and Pierre, then he could say something like, "Logan White will be more adept at choosing the right veteran players to coalesce with our young stars into a championship team."
That's possible, but I'd bet on the former over the latter.
This is approximately like saying the Rockies are a major league team. It has the advantage of being true and the disadvantage of telling you nothing about how bad they are. (I was going to say the Pirates, but the Rocks are actually 17 games under .500.)
So did the Good Professor.
Ned doesn't seem interested in stats that actually tell you how good/bad a player is. He prefers bubble gum card stats.
I will always choose used over new, and I have found some great deals online for late 90's Volvo Station wagons. Those are the good model years. I have seen 98 wagons with only 60,000 miles going for 8K. Of course, I would need to be able to take it to my mechanic, but I feel confident in the long term performance.
Oh well, that's my $.02
The article below indicates he's in the last year of a 3 year deal, although I didn't check for any recent extensions:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/28/sports/baseball/28cashman.html
Word in New York is that Cashman will be given the Torre treatment when his contract expires:
http://6-4-2.blogspot.com/2008/05/pickoff-moves-lunchtime-edition_19.html
1. I would agree that if the Dodgers don't make the playoffs and Cashman is on the market that McCourt would at least reach out to Cashman. If it's Cashman vs. Williams, McCourt would go with Cashman in a landslide. To that extent, I agree.
2. It's instructive to point out that as much as we think Colletti is a below-average GM, things could always be worse. We could have Kenny Williams. And, in a not-horribly-unlikely sequence of events, it could happen.
The best player in baseball was available. Cashman's biggest rival had the inside track on trading for that player. He failed. Then, Cashman swooped in and got the deal done.
Now, there are lots of reasons that the A-Rod deal went down the way it went down, but at the end of the day, the guy was in pinstripes.
Because of that, players will see how much is going to mediocre players, and be more willing to hold out to free agency, or ask for 90-100 million dollar extensions instead of 40 million dollar ones. After this, more good players enter free agency, driving costs down, and the cycle repeats.
The teams that are most hurt by this are the ones who wait to act, since they'll be the ones shelling out the biggest value contracts before the market corrects itself. It might already be too late for the Dodgers to take advantage of this.
Since facing the Rockies, Penny has given up 29 ER in 27.2 IP. Maybe the Rox can provide just the prescription Penny needs.
Also, the Dodger offense scored 11 runs in each of Penny's two starts against Colorado this season. Let's hope that trend continues, although 11 runs in the series might be more realistic.
Cashman is far from overrated, but whatever anyone's opinion of him is, he is leaps and bounds better than either Williams or Colletti could ever be.
I get the impression that a lot of the more bonehead moves were Steinbrenner moves pulled without his consent, i.e. the Kevin Brown trade and so on.
The Fred Claire defense?
Until George or One of the Two Steinbrenners with the Same Name say otherwise, I think if you're the GM, the buck stops with you.
176 - That's the other question. What is Torre's relationship with Cashman?
Weird, when did this turn into Bronx Banter. ;-)
I'm looking forward to this Dodgers homestand and only worry that the team will relax too much now that they're home. Can't overlook the Rockies or take anything for granted.
He got lucky more than he was good, though, as the team's subsequent performances attested. Maybe that's just parity talking, maybe it's the increasing difficulty of winning the AL Central (up to last year -- this year, there are too many teams falling apart for me to think it's not up in the air), but I haven't been that impressed with Kenny Williams' work.
Not that there's anything wrong with rule one violations, so long as there's no rule one. BB has no rule one and likes it that way.
I do not advocate firing Colletti for Williams. I would agree with your points about his skills.
I do think that under a not-horribly-unlikely set of circumstances, he could be the next GM of the Dodgers. That set of circumstances:
1. Dodgers miss the playoffs
2. Colletti is fired
3. Williams is fired
4. Cashman stays with the Yankees
If all four of those things happen, then...
http://tinyurl.com/6a78do
On the other hand, if the GM makes big changes, he gets accused of "blowing up a World Series team".
what bad moves has be made, other than javy vazques? i'm not challenging your statement just curious as i'm not too familat with the bad ones.
Plenty of CELTICS related material on NBA TV today. ugh
http://www.nba.com/nba_tv/daily_schedule.html
looks like they emptied the CBS/Fox nba videos vault.
And would it really save Ned's job to add ANOTHER outfielder? What happens when Jones comes back?
No. Dunn couldn't be any less Ned's kind of player if he tried, unless he hit fewer HRs. That's the only thing about him that Ned is likely to appreciate. Everything else (high BBs and Ks, high OBP, low BA, bad defense) is contrary to Ned's philosophy*.
*If you can call it that.
vr, Xei
I wonder if it has anything to do with The Windmill being gone.
I should note I grew up idolizing Frank Thomas, so I should automatically be ruled out of this discussion. I hate Kenny Williams.
Thanks. That's cool, even if it's Celtics-related. I need to fuel the hate with some Cedric Maxwell and/or M.L. Carr towel waving.
Ken Williams, whose strategy for building a team is having a plan and sticking to it...for one year, until the plan needs changing again. Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel for those years and that money? Not realizing that Scott Podsednik sucks? Trading Jon Garland for a shortstop (Orlando Cabrera) even though he re-signed his own shortstop (Uribe - who happens to be one of the worst players in baseball)?
--
He's also made some moves that could be argued to be fairly reasonable, even good.
In fact, Baseball Analysts argued his case awhile back and came away in favor of Williams.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/10/ken_williams_v.php
I do think it's funny, though, this notion that there are really good GMs and really bad ones. I think all but the most addle-brained GMs make good moves and bad moves. Some seem to get the concepts we appreciate and value more than others; some adapt better than others. Most of them make mistakes and hopefully learn from it. Some get fired when they don't, or sometimes before they have a chance to learn. I am hard pressed to name a GM out there right now I'd have no doubt would be great for the Dodegrs or no doubt they'd be terrible. (Okay, there are a few, the Bavasis of the world, who would be undeniably worse.) Someone like Logan White could indeed be the best bet to be the next Dodger GM, especially if it was the only way to keep him, but we don't even know if he'd be a good GM either. Scouting intelligence doesn't always translate to other positions. We would however probably feel more confident that he wouldn't trade "the kids." But would that always be to our benefit?
I'm just thinking out loud here.
>>MH: You mentioned you really didn't have any favorite teams, but did you have any favorite players while growing up?
Lawrie: Everyone always has their favorite players. You have Alex Rodriguez One of the guys I really like to watch is Russell Martin, a Canadian guy [with the Los Angeles Dodgers]. He's a catcher. He played on the national team, the national junior team. I spent some time with him in the off-season and I trained with him. The national team coach loves him as well. He didn't start catching until he came out of junior college, so I'm kind of doing the same thing that he did. I got a chance to see the way he lives and it's a pretty cool life. I'm ready to go.
MH: Did you learn anything specific from Russell?
Lawrie: Yeah, we had lots of talks about stuff like conducting yourself on and off the field. From a catching standpoint we worked on blocking, and a whole bunch of stuff. I also hung out with Dustin Pedroia from the Boston Red Sox. I went over to his house for dinner and I saw how those guys conduct themselves. It's a real treat and a pleasure to be in the presence of those guys. They took the time out of their lives to have an 18-year-old kid live with them. It was a fun time; it was cool. They're just guys. They're not people who are trying to be billionaires. They just like to have fun and do the things that guys do. <<
In the vein of 162 , White seems to be considered the John Lasseter of the organization. I wonder how the front office/farm system would fare without him.
I can get a Khalil Bell for $186!
It might not be his though. They look to be a few years old as they have the old curvy font.
Lowe should be well rested though, as he flew back yesterday in anticipation of tonight's start.
-pun very much intended and or metaphor and or failed attempt at sarcasm
Ng seems to be heavy on the negotiation side, working on arbitration cases and contract details. I'm sure she does other things as well, but I just haven't seen that reported.
But outside of that, I don't know a way of isolating her contributions.
If a certain election had gone a different way, I'd think there was a very high chance of her taking the job, since the hook of the election would get the McCourts on television a lot. But it didn't, so I don't know.
Gary Wolber of Granada Hills, whose 5-year-old son, John, has been treated for autism at Mattel Children's Hospital, will walk 27 miles from his home to Dodger Stadium today for tonight's game with Colorado to raise money for the hospital.
That was discussed earlier here. You must have been out that day.
But I'm driving the length of Sepulveda Boulevard Saturday. Or Sunday. Depends upon which day I feel more awake.
Long Beach to Sylmar.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/M5Ua
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_lvDLeTae8
I missed a lot over the weekend. I saw my niece's dance recital on Saturday and didn't bother to record the game since it was for sure going to be a rainout. So I take full blame for the loss, especially since I turned on the car radio right as the bottom of the 8th inning began.
The Incorrigible Hulk?
"Don't make me trade... you won't like me when I trade!"
"Today I have a double role. As assistant general manager you oversee player development, professional scouting, trying to get talent into your organization. You're involved in trades, negotiating contracts with free agents and roster players. You're in charge of payroll, video operations, medical staff, amateur staff. You basically oversee the operations of baseball. As farm director you're in charge of a lot of the day-to-day movements within the minor leagues." (2005)
http://magazine.uchicago.edu/0410/features/glimpses.shtml
This isn't so good, but could just be sucking up: "[Ng] reads press reports on the team's performance and administrative moves. Often, she says, the press provides good ideas about the industry and the Yankees' place in it." (sometime between 1997 and 2001)
http://magazine.uchicago.edu/9806/CollegeReport/kimberlyng.html
The Dodgers have renewed interest in Zach Collier, and they believe Hicks will be gone before their pick.
The Press!
Huh!
(Whatiiiiis itGOODfor?)
Absolutely nothin'!
And trading away payroll by moving one or more of Pierre, Penny, lowe, Kent, Nomar, Schmidt, Jones, Furcal either requires getting equal salary back in return or eliminating most of the teams unable to absorb additional payroll.
I think the tools a GM needs are not much different than those that a politician needs (or a lawyer, [he says looking towards Boston]). Basically, you need critical thinking skills and a general governing philosophy. Actual policy isn't as important because facts and circumstances are bound to change. Colletti strikes me has having the governing philosophy (albeit one I don't quite agree with) of reliance on PVL. I'm not convinced he has the critical thinking skills necessary to be much more than he already is.
In politics it's the critical thinking skills that separate hacks from stars. And I think it's the same in sports. Some guys can analyze a situation and respond accordingly, others simply react based on ideology. The really good (and thus rare) ones are the ones that can analyze a situation, think three or four moves ahead, and then act accordingly.
Then again, critical thinking skills are worthless if you don't have a governing philosophy. Without the philosophy in place, you don't really have direction. The thing is, it's easy to get a governing philosophy, they are a dime a dozen; so everyone's got one (usually). The question is, can you then develop it beyond the basic tenants (this usually requires critical thinking skills, and can sometimes be dangerous because those who don't develop beyond the basics will see you as a turn coat for dismissing some tenant or having some nuance in your thinking).
I reject the notion that hacks and stars are generally separate in politics.
The biggest stars (in politics, entertainment, etc.) are often hacks with little self-respect or reverence for truth, justice, society, harmony, peace, etc. They care primarily about themselves and advancing their own careers, notoriety, legacy, wealth, etc., and sell out accordingly.
Style over substance.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2008/insider/news/story?id=3421248
239 - I tend to disagree about the lack of self-respect among the biggest stars. I think it's fairly easy to spot who the guys are that you describe and who actually cares about their trade/profession. That doesn't mean that they won't debase themselves to make some money, but they'll also do penance for the temporary selling out.
Here's a scouting report on Zach Collier (I like him too):
http://tinyurl.com/53pak5
I'm not comparing the two, but I would like to see White target a high-upside high school hitter like Collier.
I have the entire Rockies series available Today, Tomorrow, and Wednesday. Email amurvine at hotmail dot com if you are interested.
Ned only has five.
BILL: It's what you give to your secretary instead of a raise.
When I read your first sentence, I was thinking how could the 2003 Dodgers' draft be ahead of 2002 (Martin, Loney, Broxton, Pee Wee, Stults)? But then I realized Law ranked the Dodgers #1 of all the 2003 teams' drafts.
The new GM needs to build around Bills, Kershaw, Martin, Kemp----> have more foresight at position changes in the minor leagues (it's ridiculous that it took this long to realize Kemp could play CF, and LaRoche play 2b)...
He (or she), needs to abandon the "lets have a 120mils payroll just so we'll for sure win 80 games" with a bunch of PVL without any upside. The new GM is going to need a thick skin, and instead of giving the team the Tomkos, Loaiza's, etc....instead promote the other propsects (Mcdonald, Meloan, Orenduff as examples here) that may at least have some upside.
I'd also like to see the new GM influence Logan White into drafting power hitting in the early rounds. Drafting pitchers every single year is getting old. Two hits (Bills/Kershaw), and a ton of misses, injuries, etc. Meanwhile, the big club has no home run power.
Hopefully Andrew Lambo last year, and maybe Brett Wallace this year will inject some power into this powerless organization.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-10784_3-9957103-7.html
http://tinyurl.com/6dbyfm
-Have a strong farm system
-Have a ton of money
-Getting a bunch of high upside injury prone/coming off a terrible year guys and praying
Since the third one is really only to be used in an emergency situation, and a GM can't really influence the second one, the first thing you should look for in a GM is the ability to construct a farm system, and I think because of that, your GM needs to be scouting first.
Stats come in when you need to actually evaluate who is an elite player, and who is a mirage. Your stat guy should be there to tell you that getting Juan Pierre is a bad idea, or that Fred Lewis is massively overpeforming his expected OPS and will plummet soon. Unfortunately, every team has access to this information, so there's not much advantage to be gained.
If you don't have a stat guy, your organization is terribly behind, but there's not much to gain from being particulary strong there since every team can't just rip off the Mariners and the Giants.
And for all I know, he's wearing one of those now.
The Dodgers and Giants are "rivals" in a way that the Lakers and Bulls are not.
There you have bad publicity from the get go. Would the Yankees ever hire anybody who took pride in working for the hated Red Sox, whether through a garment or otherwise?
I thought it was amusing as well.
Why did you put "rivals" in "quotations"?
Heh heh...
Of all the areas of the Dodgers that Colletti has control of, I think the farm system and amateur scouting are the two where he relies of Watson, White and Ng the most to handle. Ned is not getting up in the morning and calling the managers of each club for reports.
This particular area has remained constant since 2002, through 3 different GMs. I would expect it not too change to much unless those in charge move on. But then again, White already has been replaced by someone with similar preferences.
(a) Joe will say, "I really have liked working with White/Ng." OR
(b) Joe will say, "I always enjoyed playing/working with _____."
And that will be it.
Ed Barrow built the Red Sox into one of the best teams of the Teens. And then he left to go work for the Yankees.
Leo Durocher left the Dodgers to go manage the Giants.
Branch Rickey was let go/kicked out by the Cardinals and then went to go run the Dodgers.
Mike Montgomery is going to coach Cal next year!
Henry Bibby and USC.
The fact that he is proud of being a loser is what has always amused me, but we've already debated this before.
Jackson says he wears his most recent championship ring when the playoffs start, so he was wearing a Bulls ring during his first title run with LA.
269 - because the Dodgers are looking like a .500 team that won't make the postseason. I don't think they're quite that bad, but they're not especially good (I was guessing 85-88 wins, but with the right combination of bad luck and poor managerial choices, .500 is not out of the question).
Can't speak for everyone else, but I noticed every guy on the team is on pace to hit 15 home runs or less in 2008.
-- Brad Penny is having the year we all hoped would never happen.
-- Lowe is getting old.
-- Pierre is on the roster, playing every game. Subtly enough, I think this has an effect on the team.
-- Jury's still out on Kuroda
-- Furcal is missing significant time with no set timetable for a return.
-- Jones, for all intents and purposes, hasn't shown up (yet).
Other than that, I think the Dodgers can turn it around.
I think it's more a "bang for your buck" thing with Coletti this year. He's under the microscope for having a ridiculously expensive team that also happens to be buoyed by its least pricey players. If you're McCourt, you have to feel like someone could allocate resources better.
259
I think you underrate the importance of statistics analysis in a front office. Yes, every team has stats analysis, but every team also values that information differently. There are some teams that would be more receptive to the stat guy coming in and telling them that Fred Lewis actually kind of sucks, whereas some GMs would take the numbers and dump it in the garbage.
Yes, the numbers are available to everyone, but not every organization is valuing those numbers the same. That much is evident based on what we see from major league teams every single year.
- Frank McCourt, 2007
That must have made Jamie McCourt happy.
You didn't have to personally see and hear that nonsense come from his mouth.
Any of you vagrants want to take credit for this?
http://www.firenedcollettinow.com/
Ned has one more year (before his extension).
Do you really think that the following teams are actually listening to their stats guys?
Cincinatti
Baltimore
Washington
Chicago (Both teams, really)
Minnesota
Kansas City
Houston
LAA
NYM
http://tinyurl.com/5mlm7n
Cincinatti, Baltimore, Minnesota, LAA - New GMs, too soon to tell.
Washington, Kansas City, New York, Chicago (Sox) -Why wouldn't you think they do?
Houston, Chicago Cubs - Probably not, no.
All I know is that at this point in time, for the most part, the Dodgers have been sporting the starting line-up we all want to see (missing Furcal, and save for Pierre, and he hasn't been as terrible as feared), and so there they are, still with us, and now starting, and the team has still be inconsistent so we look for answers. I just preach a little patience, I guess.
Winning goes a long way to shift moods and decrease angst, of course. Or at least a little way.
I have no problem with Ned not being interested in stats, as long as he hires a guy that is (White) and relies on him (which is where Ned falls short - he may be making his own decisions independent of opinions of those hired - how else does one explain JP?)
I hope I don't sound confrontational, I'm genuinely interested.
I listed those teams, because in recent history, they have made moves that even a very weak mind in statistical analysis, (my own), seems to understand would be bad moves based on any kind of statistical analysis. Let's run the list:
Chicago White Sox: Employing Scott Podsednik for any reason. Signing Darin Erstad just a year ago. Relying on aging pitching with terrible peripherals after getting career years out of most of them.
Washington: Christian Guzman. Hanging on to Dmitri Young after a probably luck-fueled year.
NYM: This one I can't really defense, other than I find it hard to believe that Omar Minaya does much thinking beyond throwing money around.
Kansas City: Constantly signing aging, mediocre veterans, Jose Guillen this year, but also Mark Grudzialanek, Brett Tomko, Reggie Sanders and other players over the yearsthat a woeful franchise in desperate need of finding good, underrated, young players should not be trifling with. Letting Tony Pena Jr., Joey Gathright, and David DeJesus, rack up huge AB numbers.
Someone alert Sam DC.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/teams/draft/Oakland-Athletics-2006.shtml
Yes, he's not Ch-ristian Guzman.
Remember people, "ch" is one letter in Spanish.
Unless that was one of the letters that lost its letter status a few years back.
The Lee for Podsednik trade makes a lot more sense if yout think of it as a salary dump and Podsednik as the guy who just had to fill in the spot. The production they got from Iguchi, Pierzynski and Dye more than makes up for what they lost by going with Podsednik over Lee.
Plus, they keep going with Javier Vazquez despite him consistently under performing his perhiperals, so it's a bit of a balance to Buerhle.
I don't know if Jim Bowden's gotten more stat freindly, but he's made a lot of good moves the last two years and really only screwed up with Young.
A lot of teams have instances where they didn't do the sabermetrically freindly thing, but unless it's a constant thing, I wouldn't say they ignore their stat guys.
ROCKIES
CF Willy Taveras (rh)
RF Seth Smith (lh)
LF Ryan Spilborghs (rh)
1B Todd Helton (lh)
3B Garrett Atkins (rh)
2B Ian Stewart (lh)
C Yorvit Torrealba (rh)
SS Omar Quintanilla (lh)
RHP Greg Reynolds (rh)
DODGERS
LF Juan Pierre (lh)
CF Matt Kemp (rh)
RF Andre Ethier (lh)
2B Jeff Kent (rh)
1B James Loney (lh)
3B Blake DeWitt (lh)
C Dan Ardoin (rh)
SS Ching-lung Hu (rh)
RHP Derek Lowe (rh)
Of course, Moneyball is all about market inefficiencies and really has little to do with a specific player type. Beane was picking college players because those were the players that generally went underrated; that's where the bargains were to be had. With more teams now focusing on college players in the draft, the high school players may now be the so-called "Moneyball" players.
Logan White, on the other hand, seems to prefer high school players as a matter of principle and philosophy, unrelated to any market trends or inefficiencies.
http://tinyurl.com/6nso5e
http://tinyurl.com/yovvop
I'm not sure that's weasely at all. In one sense, the whole idea behind "Moneyball" (or "new stats" and such) is the try new things and think outside the box in a (potentially never-ending) quest to find what works.
Contrast that with traditionalist thinking, which tends to assume that we already know what works so we don't need to try anything new. We can just use the old tried-and-true methods, and if they don't work out, we were just unlucky.
I say the Ragin' Cajun gets replaced via double switch in the 8th.
Kent sucked in the cleanup spot, so Torre moved him to #3. He sucked there, so Torre moved him back to cleanup.
I like it.
Of course everything that happened in high school is one hazy, sleepy, blur, so I might be wrong.
Yeah, but why pay money for established players that will put up weak numbers, when you can play your own crappy players for less money? And I refuse to believe that there are no players that these teams could be finding in the minors with nice numbers that merit a second look (thinking Jack Cust types, here). Possible AAAA players, but possibly not. Why don't they at least try?
It's pretty extreme to call Beane's college-only philosophy a "failure." Overall the A's have had tremendous success with college players in the first round -- Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Swisher, Blanton. Maybe it wasn't the bees knees like everyone said it was, but to call it a failure is not in alignment with the facts.
It's also a misstatement to call stats "meaningless" in amateur scouting. Relatively unimportant, sure. Meaningless, no way.
{crickets chirping}
I need a nap. See y'all at game time.
Reynolds has also given up 6 HR, including two in Petco Park! I smell an offensive night for the Blue tonight.
I do agree that you should at least try to go with someone that's never gotten a shot, but guys like that are few and far between. For the most part, you might as well go with the veteran.
I'd assume some crossover though, and I'd love to know White's true assessment of Pierre, not that Ned may have even asked the guy. But if you can evaluate talent, that should apply to a Juan Pierre.
I want him to play catch with Juan Pierre, a lot.
So far, he looks like another first-round Stanford pitcher gone bust. I'm sure the Rockies are thrilled they picked him over Longoria, Kershaw, Lincecum, and Joba.
SS Ching-lung Hu (rh)
I just noticed the spelling error by one of Tracy Ringolsby or Jack Etkin (both Rocky Moutain News reporters). Perhaps Hu can use this spelling error as motivation to come out of his slump.
Or maybe I'm grasping at straws here.
And I think "meaningless" is the word that BP's Kevin Goldstein applied to college player stats, at least when it comes to assessing players for draft purposes. They obviously mean something to college team success or failure.
To be fair, Pierre does have a .351 OBP on the season, although I know you were just using his OBP as leadoff man.
When you're done, pass your findings onto our younger players.
.240/.303/.260/.563
Everybody knows Hu spells his name:
胡金龍
Certainly the Dodgers could have picked someone else aside from Hochevar (its been reported that White wanted lefty prepster Beau Jones who is now pitching in the Cal League for Texas's minor league team).
On a non-game day, there are 2 stories about the upcoming NBA Finals and 2 stories with a Laker/Celtic history angle in the LAT.
There was the game story and notes for the Dodgers.
Pierre, LF
Kemp, CF
Ethier, RF
Kent, 2B
Loney, 1B
DeWitt, 3B
Ardoin, C
Hu, SS
Lowe, P
I hope Russell gets the whole night off this time.
Rockies lineup as well in 313 .
Sounds like MLB is perfectly fine with the Dodgers exploiting the loophole in the rules. Jason Schmidt's rehab assignment for his right shoulder stopped days short of the 30-day limit when he ``suffered'' a ``left calf injury'' in his most recent rehab start.
That means the clock will start all over again when he makes his next rehab start, as long as he doesn't make it before Sunday.
He also reports that Furcal is resisting a rehab assignment and Nomar took BP today. (which is not a big deal since I saw Nomar take BP a little over 3 weeks ago.)
359 - I'm probably being impatient or selfish, but am kind of glad Furcal is resisting a rehab assignment. If he's healthy to play, activate him for heaven's sake, we need him!
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