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Dodger Thoughts commenter CanuckDodger sends along this post-draft perspective on the Dodgers:
With the Dodgers' 2008 amateur draft, the seventh consecutive Dodger draft for which Logan White has been responsible, in the books, is it time to wonder if White's job has gotten harder, not easier? If the answer is yes, it seems counterintuitive. In most lines of work, the work gets easier, through either mastery or, at worst, sheer familiarity with a routine. But White appears to have had his job mastered from the word go, judging by the universal high esteem in which his 2002 and 2003 Dodger draft classes, his first two, are held, to say nothing of the warm bodies they have graduated to the majors. Job performance like that earns trust, and no small amount of it, surely. And yet, Dodger fans who have subjected White's latest draft effort to scrutiny are asking, in the fashion of Peggy Lee, "Is that all there is?" How do we explain Dodger fans being so underwhelmed? Maybe White is the victim of his own success, and has raised Dodger fans' expectations to unreasonable levels. Alternatively, White, like the protagonist of the second Austin Powers film, could simply have lost his mojo. Or, what I think is the most probable explanation, White's job has become more difficult than it used to be.
The description that Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus gave of the left field position on the Baltimore Orioles in recent years - a position manned by a succession of radio station contest winners and the occasional farm animal - is what Dodger fans may imagine the position of Director of Amateur Scouting in the Dodger organization was like before Dan Evans hired Logan White to fill the role, after Evans became general manager in late 2001. The Dodgers, at that time, had become legendary for a long string of dunderheaded first-round draft picks, and if any Dodger draftee turned out well, it was apt to be quite by accident, or dumb luck, like taking Mike Piazza in the 62nd round as a favor to Tommy Lasorda, a friend of Piazza's father. The Dodgers' farm system, entering 2002, was ranked by Baseball America as the 28th-best in the game, thanks in large part to years of Dodger draft futility. Anyone who has ever had to buy gifts for Christmas or birthdays knows that the hardest person to shop for is the one who "has everything," so to speak. A scouting director, at bottom, is a professional shopper, and in 2002 Logan White's new client, far from "having everything," on the farm, had, to not put too fine a point on it, nothing. The Dodger farm system was a blank canvas on which White could paint his vision. Not an enviable position for the Dodgers to be in, but certainly an enviable position for a new scouting director to be in, if he is up to the task, especially if he is working for a GM who has given him full autonomy, which is precisely what Dan Evans gave White, instead of meddling in the draft as some GMs are disposed to do.
Confronted with a Dodger farm system nearly devoid of talent at every level, White could draft whomever he wanted, procure whatever shiny object caught his eye, without giving thought to organizational needs or playing-time issues on the Dodgers' lower-level farm teams. White made "draft the best player available" his mantra, and with so many other clubs focusing early on college players, that left White with a wide selection of high school players who might be further away from the majors than the college players available, but whom White believed had higher ceilings than the college guys. White's 2002 and 2003 drafts were two of the most high school-oriented drafts in baseball over those years, which did not endear White to folks inclined to believe that high school players, and particularly high school pitchers, were bad risks on which to gamble an organization's fortunes. Working under Paul DePodesta in 2004 and 2005, White had to compromise with a GM from the school of thought that preferred college draftees with records of strong statistical performance over relatively unproven high school players, but the work of building up the Dodger farm system continued, even if White had to make some concessions to DePodesta's preferences, and that work also continued after DePodesta's regime gave way to that of Ned Colletti, the third GM White would have to work under in five years. Players whom White drafted as long ago as 2002 were only then reaching the top levels of the Dodger farm system, and soon enough many of them would make the jump to the majors.
Not counting the Dominican Summer League, there are six levels to a baseball organization's farm system, from rookie ball to Triple A, and that has given rise to a saying among scouts and player development people that it takes six drafts to remake a farm system, from the bottom to the top. With six drafts behind him, entering 2008, White's remaking of the Dodger farm system can be said to have been completed. The virgin white canvas White started with in 2002 was, now, a full picture, with mere bits of uncolored space remaining. The Dodgers' 2008 draft looks disappointing to fans, arguably, because it represents not new, bold strokes with an artist's brush, but filling in the blanks, or paint-by-numbers. It did not come without prior warning from White. In May, White gave MLB.com's Ken Gurnick a statement that Gurnick identified as an indicator of a sea change in Dodger draft philosophy under White: "What's different about this draft is that now we're in a position where we have to look, at No. 15, at going in a different direction than before and looking at need a little closer now." White turned out to not be strictly true to that declaration, as when it came time to make his first 2008 draft pick, at No. 15 overall, he went with the consensus best talent still available, high school pitcher Ethan Martin, who bears a strong resemblance to the players on whom White has used his first draft pick since 2003. So it was "business as usual" with the first-round pick. But starting with the Dodgers' second-round pick, it is unmistakable that the Dodgers were targeting players who appear suited to fill real or perceived gaps in the Dodger farm system.
Taking a college reliever early in the draft is widely derided as wasting a pick on a player with a rather limited ceiling, so that is clearly at odds with what had been White's modus operandi. But taking college reliever Josh Lindblom in the second round looks calculated to address a very specific issue on the Dodgers' near-term agenda: finding a suitable replacement for big league set-up man Jonathan Broxton when Broxton succceds Takashi Saito as the Dodgers' closer. Possible candidates for that job already in the organization - Scott Proctor, Yhency Brazoban, Jonathan Meloan and Ramon Troncoso -- have all lost some of their luster since as recently as the offseason, unfortunately. After taking Lindblom in the second round, the Dodgers' drafting Kyle Russell in the third round, Nick Buss in the eighth round and Steven Caseres in the ninth round appears driven by the desire to add depth to the Dodgers' somewhat thin collection of minor league outfielders, and, in the cases of Russell and Caseres, the desire to boost the system's power hitting. The Dodgers' farm system was also light, at the lower levels, on middle infield talent heading into the draft, which no doubt prompted White to draft shortstops Devaris Strange-Gordon in the fourth round and Anthony Delmonico in the sixth round (though Delmonico is said to profile better as a second baseman going forward).
It might be asked, continuing the painting metaphor, how White's doing paint-by-numbers work with the draft can be construed as more difficult than painting a picture on a blank canvas. It comes down to the breadth of creative possibilities in the one endeavor compared with the breadth of possibilities in the other. If a scouting director is open to the full range of players in a draft's talent pool, at every stage of the draft, and talent and upside are the only determinants in who is selected or rejected, the scouting director's draft "haul" (for want of a better word) is likely to be better than it would be if he is drafting according to position and demographics. Mixing and matching draft picks with farm system vacancies is a tricky business, because the strength of a given draft's talent pool may not align well with specific needs, or position vancancies, in an organization. To illustrate: White wanted a heavy combination of outfielders, middle infielders, relievers, and power hitters, and he wanted them to come from the ranks of players older than the high schoolers. But the best college hitters this year were corner outfielders, and this was a downright awful year for college outfielders. After White had spent his first two picks on pitchers, White used his third pick on a college outfielder and power hitter (Kyle Russell) with significant and likely insurmountable flaws just because that player was all that was left that satisfied the narrow criteria White was looking to fill, notwithstanding that there were many better talents still available who just happened to be high school players, a demographic White evidently had very little interest in, in 2008, after Ethan Martin filled what was probably a quota of one high school player for the first nine picks. This approach to drafting is, baldly, incontrovertibly, tantamount to a scouting director handcuffing himself. If he can maximize the talent he is getting out of the draft despite working within these kinds of limitations, he is truly a favorite of fortune.
For all of the problems inherent in drafting to meet "needs," as frustrating as it is to watch unfold, Logan White may not have been at liberty to do anything different this year, so it is unfair to cast blame at his feet. Past White drafts emphasizing young players who require a fair bit of polishing, as well as recently increased recruiting of Latin American teenagers, is putting pressure on the rosters of our lowest level farm teams. Hypothetically, if White had used, say, his first eight picks in the 2008 draft on high school pitchers, because each time it was his turn to pick a high school pitcher was the best talent available, where would they all pitch? We have high school pitchers from last year's draft, top-round guys like Chris Withrow and Michael Watt, still not ready for low A ball and needing roster space and rotation slots on one of our rookie teams. A farm system is like a series of pipelines, and care has to be taken to prevent the formation of bottlenecks at any position that would threaten a deserving player's playing time and endanger his development. In addition to what is going on with our youngest pitchers, some of our position players - like Preston Mattingly, to name one -- need more time to develop in the low minors before they are promoted any further. Thus, it is understandable that the Dodgers, this year, decided that college players were needed more than high school players, with it being presumed that the college players could start a little higher in the system and move up a little more quickly. It is having to take something like that into consideration that is making White's job harder than it was when he started out with the Dodgers. The empty farm system of 2002 was no threat to bottleneck at any position, but it was also distinctly the kind of farm system that no Dodger fan wants to see attached to the Dodgers again, ever. Contemplating what a return to those days would be like, a Dodger fan may console himself with the thought that Logan White drafting for organization need because of a fairly full farm system is, by far, the lesser of two conceivable evils.
Is that your own special Canuck/DT font?
Logan White was on with Ken Levine and Josh Suchon last night on KABC, and it was a pretty entertaining interview, although I missed the first few minutes.
And now to other news that noone cares about except me...
Well done, sir.
Since Chaffee was not in the top 200 list that Baseball America puts out, my guess is that if the Angels offer slot level bonus, Chaffee will forego his committment.
If Ned does get fired (which I don't see happening), would Logan White be near the top of the list of potential replacements?
You are oh so correct; it was our 5th pick that is an LSU signee. JonMichael Redding out of Florida Community College...
With all due respect to the suffering going on in your state, but ...
How high's the water, Indiana Jon?
And a 5.5 ERA.
Is this a 100-year flood, a 75-year flood, a 50-year flood?
That is the last update, I swear. Just in case there are any UCI grads out there...
The videos work for me, but the sound is always static.
SILVERLIGHT
Just because you dont agree with the picks doesnt mean White didnt really want to pick those players.
I am guessing you may not make these games.
2) White could draft whomever he wanted Strictly speaking true, but this omits the problems already noted with foreign free agent signing bonuses. I wonder if there is any evidence that the Dodgers have been limiting themselves to slot for North American draftees.
http://www.insidesocal.com/dodgers/2008/06/hu-optioned-gor.html
http://tinyurl.com/4ogaeg
There's been talk of the Dodgers acquiring a power bat since Adrian Beltre left. You can't find them at Costco. They are almost nonexistent via trade, and if one does become available -- like Cabrera -- he'll only cost you every top prospect in your farm system. Check out the Tigers and see how that's working out.
Many fans simply won't accept what the Dodgers have clearly decided -- it's youth movement time and they're developing from within. Even if it is a disaster, the main reason they signed Andruw Jones was to add a power bat while preserving the nucleus of the roster. They don't even have the kind of prospects that could land a Cabrera. The players that were their top prospects a few years ago now are the Dodgers. They are Russell Martin, Matt Kemp, Chad Billingsley, Kershaw, James Loney.
To make a trade for a Cabrera-like player now, they would be forced to tear up their current nucleus. Aside from the philosophical dilemma that creates, it also would open other holes on the Major League club that would need to be filled by ... how? Even if a big bat were available, who would you trade to get him? Martin? Kershaw?? And how do you replace them? Filling one hole by creating another is a zero-sum game.
The Dodgers did draft one high school hitter in the 20th round, Zach Cox who was projected by Baseball America as the top 100 pick (No. 72). He has college committment to Alabama.
Looks like someone's been reading DT.
36
Hope he makes it far enough so that I can hear his name announced at DT.
"The longer DeWitt performs well at this level, the greater the chance that LaRoche becomes expendable unless he emerges as a future second baseman. The thing to remember about DeWitt is that, although he was a complete surprise to make any big league impact in 2008, it's not like he came out of nowhere. He was a first-round Draft pick four years ago, signed to a $1.2 million bonus and was considered one of the best hitters in his Draft."
I appreciate Canuck's takes and have been reading his work for the last five years. The above is pure conjecture, and I don't buy it, period.
The thinking goes A) I don't like Russell, hence B) White chose a flawed player that he doesn't like much to meet a need. Are you kidding? First of all, if Russell's flaw is not insurmountable, then he can be a monster. Second of all, what exactly is the evidence that White doesn't like Russell as much as the alternatives? Third, I might be willing to buy that White drafted to get an impact power bat at the expense of HS hitters that he liked, but are you seriously arguing that there are HS hitters with better power potential than Russell? If so, could you enlighten us as to who they are (and what their bonus demands will be)?
And exactly what evidence is there that White can hit on high ceiling high school hitters? He's graduated the following hitters to the major leagues: Loney, Kemp, Martin, Young, LaRoche, Ruggiano, DeWitt. Two HS first rounders, one very raw HS 6th rounder, and four college hitters. In the first five rounds, he has taken 10 HS hitters [Loney, Nixon (3rd round catcher who chose ASU football), Paul (4th rd), Dewitt, DeJesus (2nd), Bell (4th), Mattingly (supp), Orr (4th), Gallagher (3rd), Lambo (4th)] and 5 college hitters [Young (4th), Dunlap (3rd), Raglani (5th), S. Pedroza (3rd), Russell]. Each of the college hitters has done well in the minors, although I'm sure someone will argue that the "makeup" flameouts of Raglani and Dunlap have something to do with them coming from college. Plus, Russell clearly has the highest ceiling of any of the college hitters White has drafted.
I'm fine with CanuckDodger arguing that he doesn't like Russell - I'd like to see him back it up of course, and if he has done that I haven't seen it and he should link to it. As I see it, Russell is a power hitter who stays back and drives pitches deep in the strike zone, and his selectivity gets him a lot of walks and strikeouts and his long swing gets him some more strikeouts. You can argue that those flaws are hard to overcome - he will need to improve and adjust his approach to a better class of pitching. But I don't see why you are asserting that those flaws are essentially insurmountable and that they are more massive than the flaws that every high school hitter who hasn't been drafted by the third round has.
(There is a post that covers Russell to some extent over at the 5th outfielder today, if anyone is interested.)
I wondered if I should address the dimension of signability there, because strictly speaking, White's draft options no doubt WERE constrained by budget issues, as nearly every scouting director is so constrained, but I thought that would add an unnecessary level of nuance when people KNOW that that White couldn't spend, say, tens of millions of dollars of the organization's money to sign every player who fell due to their signing bonus demands.
Good points you raised, Scareduck.
Like anybody, I enjoy seeing my work praised, and I thank people who did that, but if I can clarify something I wrote, or people want to challenge me on something, please do.
I missed the weekend. Did Strange-Gordon pick up the nickname "The Stargate" while I was gone?
I have to agree with Gurnick's assesment. However as Eric noted in the previous thread, DeWitt is already stumbling and if LaRoche can impress, he will probably still be our starting 3rd baseman after the all-star break.
We should all cross our fingers that either LaRoche or DeWitt can handle 2nd base and DeWitt continues his astonishing season. An infield going forward with some combo of Loney, LaRoche, Furcal, DeWitt(2008 Version) is something to look forward to even if it is farfetched.
I think many assume that high school draftees automatically have higher ceilings than college draftees. It seems that this assumption is largely based on the fact that high school players are younger. Russell is only 21 years old and has proven himself to be a force in the Big 12. Last year he broke the single season record for home runs in college baseball while he played in a pitcher's park here in Austin. This year, he broke the career home run record for Longhorn baseball players which is no small feat given the program's notable successes over the years. There are certainly flaws in Russell's game, but I do not think it is a foregone conclusion that they cannot be fixed. Plus, he is a third round pick and the Dodgers can afford to be patient with Russell's development because of Kemp's and Ethier's continued development.
Really, that K/BB ratio looks a tad high to me compared to last year. Sure he was relieving last year but that is no reason for his command to become so craptastic. In 2007 it was 70/18 and in 2008 it is 56/37.
And, Jon, don't think HR. I know you despise fantasy baseball, but AVG/OBP/SLG are person specific and are what they are. And so I posted the results of that one just completed fantasy week that demonstrate that you can get out-homered 14-2 and still win the battle for OPS [you just need to double and walk a lot]. If I were Ned, I would have tried for both Rowand and Fukudome over Jones. We could have had .292/.398/.425 and .330/.396/.526. Instead, we got next to nothing, at least to date, and all because somebody had visions of HRs dancing in his head.
43 I have need seen any video of the soul in question, but from what you describe, he sounds a little like Jack Cust. So how Cust-like is he?
Wallace has a posterior that could match Adrian Dantley's.
What is this in response to?
Also, when your best case scenario is a guy who has no real comparables, it's a bad sign.
You should think Personnel, instead of HR.
Rowand has been shockingly impressive so far in that park.
I think had the Dodgers gave a long-term deal to Aaron Rowand, Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier would be gone.
Andruw might hit his fair share of doubles, but I believe that when one thinks of Andruw and his power bat, one tends to think of those 51 and 41 HR years [when he had less than 30 doubles].
I would prefer that the team keep Kemp. I don't otherwise dislike Andre, but if we could've landed both Fukudome and Rowand and that makes Ethier expendable, well, then Ethier is expendable. But if the team could have got both souls, I would have preferred packaging Pierre and Pee Wee, with us eating about half of Pierre's salary. And I'm sorry, but if they can build a mall behind the pavilion, they can pay for Fukudome and Rowand, and eat part of Pierre [fig. and not lit.].
Second, for the Dodgers, it was more the length of the contract, the fact even his worst power years would probably lead the Dodgers in HR and he also was a defensive upgrade in CF, led the Dodgers to make the deal with Jones.
>> McDonald (3-2) left after five innings and allowed three runs (one earned) and five hits.
<<
http://tinyurl.com/5zymmg
I think you're making it all up as you go. Except when what you say is corroborated by one of the Erics.
By the way, Baseball America is still listing Devaris Strange-Gordon as a RHP. Anyone know if there's anything to that?
Rowand .289/.347/.466 $9,600,000
Pee Wee .305/.360/.463 $391,000
Isn't it a shame the Dodgers don't look at their major league roster that way?
And while I read how wonderful it was to sign Jones for only 2 years of nothing results rather then sign someone else for 5 years of nothing results, I'm left wondering why they couldn't just have saved the $36 million and let Kemp play CF.
The guy is a complete idiot and doesn't deserve to write for Dodger house organ.
But yes I do like Delwyn, too!
I mean, what is the point of signing a free agent you are going to have to replace the following year? I realize it's in the past, but can the Dodgers at least try and learn from their mistakes instead of repeating them?
As for his claim that the front office "miscalculated" the 3rd baseman of the future, it's kind of hard to have a competition when only one person (DeWitt) gets a real chance to play everyday.
In addition it's much more fun to watch, and provides a tremendous amount of payroll flexibility were a Matt Holiday to become available.
The point here is the ability of the player you are signing and his contract terms. Not whether there is a rule preventing him from being tradd in the first year. And I thought a free agent could be traded after June anyway!
"In some breaking news from the Mobile Press-Register , Alabama signee Melvin Ray has opted to go the MLB route, and will sign a contract with the Dodgers."
http://www.rollbamaroll.com/2008/6/9/549025/melvin-ray-opts-for-baseba
Navarro goes deep.
Gabe Gross puts Joe Saunders on Paul Foytack watch.
And that guy on the Yankees.
I really like the idea of Colletti signing risky free agents like Jones and Furcal to short deals, but why not be in the final conversation for a cornerstone offensive player?
I know that he really liked both Soriano and Carlos Lee two years ago but neither was interested in playing here. It makes me wonder if he will (if he still has a job) make a damn-the-torpedoes run at Texeria and risk a PO'd clubhouse if the team were to lose Loney to trade.
This man has been in charge of the Dodgers for 3 years now and I still can not figure out what he is thinking from one day to the next.
Oh, and LSU is winning 19-4 in an effort to get my beloved Tigers back to the College World Series.
Chi 2006 .292/.330/.388
LA 2007 .293/.331/.353
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Qae_TUTeGo
Definitely not sure about this, but wasn't Hocheaver his pick? I also seem to remember him picking a guy in round 4 or 5 3 years ago who we did not sign and went to a team in the first round the following year for about 3 million above what he was asking for from us.
I mean, if the Dodgers gave Brett Tomko 5 years for $45 million and he bombed, couldn't all of us Dodger fans say that the Dodgers got what one would expect out of him? If that's true, then why do some feel it's a good thing that the Dodgers got what could be expected out of Pierre?
I am looking forward to a Bulldogs-Bulldogs matchup at Omaha.
Fresno State is using its sixth different in the #8 spot tonight.
The Bulldogs lead ASU 12-5 going to the bottom of the 9th.
LSU leads UCI 21-7 with 5:37 left in the fourth quarter.
That doesn't pique my interest.
In lieu of joining the off-day Juan Pierre discussion, I'll share with you all that this past weekend my brother came down and we went on a brief baseball roadtrip. Friday night we sat in the bleachers at Fenway and watched Felix and the Mariners blank the Sox 8-0, and then Saturday we drove up to Manchester NH and watched the NH Fisher Cats (Jays) lose to the Erie (Tigers) Seawolves 3-1.
At Fenway, it's the flowing beer that causes most of the noise in the stands. At the AA ballpark, it was the KIDS - so many of them! so much energy! screaming at the top of their lungs every time the scoreboard told them to.
Fenway is legendary and all, but we had much better (and cheaper) seats at the AA game, and all-in-all a much better time.
6'3 202 out of High School. I love it when football players choose baseball. He may not have had the academics to go to Florida but he made a smart career decision.
It's not an official statistical category.
Fresno State needs two more outs.
There is no joy in Tempe tonight. Fresno State is the first team seeded #4 in a regional to make it to Omaha.
They had to beat Long Beach State, San Diego, and ASU to make it to Omaha.
54 Obviously K and BB are the main thing to look at, but if you look at them as a ratio it's kind of hard to account for such a massive difference (SL to PCL, RP to SP). In the Southern League, Meloan had a 1.85 szERA, and in his 2007 PCL stint it was 3.74 (a third of his batters faced were in the PCL). Convert the Southern League stats to PCL, and his szERA combined for 2007 is about 3.15. This season it is 4.57. The starter penalty accounts for a full run, so his szERA is only slightly off last season's pace. However, I'm not very convinced that his walks are a command issue so much as an issue about how he is approaching hitters. He has only allowed one home run this season, which is pretty amazing pitching for the 51's. Perhaps he really is having significant problems with his command, but based strictly on his numbers and using regression his BB rate is where it should be based on his past performance and the change in roles/leagues/parks. By FIP or ERA, this season is pretty darn good for him - 4.18 ERA as a starter in a 4.70 league, and if we force the FIP constant to league average ERA, his FIP is 3.80. For a 23-year-old who just converted to starting, that is quite impressive.
57 Russell is Cust-like in his results (K, BB, HR), but I would not say that they have particularly similar swings or bodies. Cust is relatively more of a pull hitter while Russell has very good power to all fields. But that's just me.
3 games ahead of the Padres.
"Ray knows the Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft is June 5-6, and he says scouts have been impressed with his speed in the outfield and his ability to hit with power. It's uncertain what round he will go, but at one point he said he was told anywhere between the first and fourth round."
http://tallahassee.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080509/SPORTS01/805090344/1002/SPORTS
Could we see it twice this weekend? 3 times?
And I agree that IF Russell's flaws can be fixed, somehow, without taking away his power, he COULD be a monster. In Russell, I definitely see similarities to Ryan Howard at the same age. Howard, despite the power he showed in college, wasn't drafted till the fifth round, in 2001, because he was a college strikeout machine whom many scouts did not trust to be able to succeed with wood bats, and against pro pitching. Howard's story had a happy ending, but with most guys like Howard, and Russell, the result is NOT a good one, in the pros. But just because of Ryan Howard, I said that Russell's flaws are "likely" insurmountable, not definitely insurmountable.
And I never argued that when we took Russell there were HS hitters available with better power potential. I said there were better high school "talents" still on the board when we picked Russell, as in "all-around talents," and that includes both hitters and pitchers. BA had ranked Russell as the 153rd best talent in the draft. Now obviously some better-ranked high schoolers fell way out of the early rounds because of signability, and though Tim Melville only fell to the 4th round, we know about his signability issues, so I will leave him aside, but looking at the 35 picks made AFTER the Dodgers chose Russell, I see five high schoolers BA liked better than Russell, and whose scouting reports impress me a heck of a lot more than Russell's. If you want to read up on them yourself, they are RHP Ross Seaton, CF Zachary Cone, RHP Joseph Weiland, RHP Kevin Eichhorn, and CF Daniel Ortiz. Read what BA says about those guys and tell me if each time you finish a report you don't say to yourself, "Now THAT sounds like a Logan White player," based on White's record in the previous six drafts.
And, Tom, I am not sure what your point even is in the second paragraph. I think White has done quite well with his high school hitters, especially looking at what rounds some of them were drafted in. Beyond the guys who have made it to the majors already, a group that in addition to Loney, DeWitt, and Kemp includes Travis Denker (now with the Giants), there are many guys experiencing varying degrees of success in the minors: Bell, Dejesus, Paul, May, Mitchell, Lambo, Gallagher. Nixon flamed out, and Mattingly has disappointed. A good hit rate, and even more so considering how much White has emphasized pitching over hitting. And I disagree that certain college guys you mentioned peformed well in the minors, as a whole, given their ages at certain levels. Pedroza and Raglani were not good, especially if you are looking at their strikeouts rates, which were bad for supposedly advanced college hitters.
47 -- About Meloan, somebody already touched on in, but Meloan's walk rate is what I had in mind when I included him in with a group of other pitchers who have seen some of their "luster" wear off since the off-season. In Double A and below, Meloan's combination of high K rates and low walk rates were what really made him special in a system where pitchers usually have high walk rates to go along with good K rates.
Navarro just got another hit & RBI.
This is a yellow alert.
If he could develop a splitter or any type of 3rd pitch to throw to righties (he does not throw the change to righties), he would be great.
Navarro and Aybar look flat-out great tonight at the plate. Both have hit home runs, shown great apporaches at the plate, and had great all around ABs. Ned is looking more and more foolish as the season for Tampa Bay unfolds.
He hasnt pitched well, but he hasnt been lucky. One hit was a ground ball to second that Aybar tried to make a play on and went as a hit. That led to a run. Vladdy also had a broken bat bloop before Hunter's HR. Not a good outing, but he's limited the damage.
It's not, I'm watching the game. He's been giving up some rockets. Still his numbers this year overrall are pretty good, so I agree that trade can start being chalked up firmly in the loss column for us.
Yet another example of how the DT community puts mainstream media to shame when it comes to analysis. I've said that so often it's bordering on a Rule 8 violation.
He was out of options last season, and I'm 100% positive the Dodgers would not have let him work through his troubles at the big league level last season. Tampa could afford to be patient, and it's paying off for them this year.
Anyway, here are the 2007 numbers as starter for Jackson and another familiar duo:
Jackson: 31 GS, 160.2 IP, 87/128 BB/K, 5.77 ERA, 78 ERA+
Tomko/Hendy: 30 GS, 155.2 IP, 55/103 BB/K, 5.84 ERA, 69 ERA+
So we did have Jackson last year, only we don't get to reap the benefits this year.
But at least we have Scott Proctor to show for it.
I've made that complaint a lot over the last year. And considering Edwin is in the AL East, his numbers would be even better in our division.
He was hurt for a while and recently came back. Pena just got hurt so he's been playing 1st. With Pena back he'll DH and play some OF.
I think he's awful, a joke, and should be viewed thusly until proven otherwise.
Stand down.
Navarro doubled in his last at bat.
But he holds at second base.
Also, we have two of the worst defensive players in baseball on our team currently, Jeff Kent (no surprise) and Andruw Jones (kind of a surprise).
Kent -the jedi master
685abs
99runs
197hits
43 doubles
2 triples
28hr
108rbi
0bags
(roughly).280/.365/.485/.845
Pierre-The Jedi
668ab
96r
196h
24double
8triples
0hr
41rbi
64sb
.293 .331 .353 .685
Kemp -The Padawan
665abs
106runs
205 hits
33 doubles
8 triples
22hr
100 rbi
27 sb
.308 .345 .481 .827
My comments about insurmountability are asking for some sort of comparison. You say that lots of guys are like Russell and Howard but don't end up succeeding, but it's not fair to say that the majority of players of a certain type will flame out when the majority of players of any type will not make it. Hitters like Howard have long been underappreciated and derided by scouts, but is that based on a realistic comparison or is it just a defense mechanism since there are many superficially good types who are similar but in reality do not have sufficient power to make it?
Your third paragraph is in response to a conditional argument I made, which is that if White handcuffed himself by looking for a power bat in Rd 3, he did not necessarily handcuff himself to a college hitter. Your article makes the argument that White was constraining himself to college players, but it's important not to mix up the different concerns (power, MLB ETA). If you're saying White would have liked those other players better, then I'll grant you a maybe. But don't forget that BA had Russell ranked #25 last season pre-draft. And in all honesty, I think his stock has fallen since then just because he did not repeat his monstrous 2007 season exactly (and because his signability issues have probably been exaggerated; if I'm not mistaken, the clash caused by Jocketty's failure to sign Russell, a Luhnow favorite, was a significant factor in Jocketty being fired). I just don't buy that Russell's stock should have fallen this far after another outstanding season that was mislabeled as a big slump.
I was not trying to argue that White's HS picks have been bad (forgot to list Denker, too - good call; I can't believe how irresponsible that trade was). I'm not trying to knock the list of HS hitters at all. The point is that he has done a good job of identifying college hitters too. While Pedroza and Raglani do not appear to be future major league starters, that is obviously a very high expectation for where they were drafted. Raglani was an above average hitter for the Southern League at age 23 and had to repeat it and hit very well in 2007. The only hitters younger than him in the Southern League who hit better were Longoria, Upton, Jaso, Mark Reynolds, Hu, Michael Griffin, and Brandon Jones. Again, I don't think he figures to be a regular, but he has hit well enough that it can't be ruled out and he looks like he can be a decent bench player. Of course, maybe you disagree because you value batting average more highly than I do, but in my research I have not found that batting average in the minor leagues is more important to future success than the other components of offensive value. Pedroza has hit very well at each level until hitting the Southern League this season, so I don't know what you are talking about there. He was in the top ten in offensive production in the FSL last season. Again, they have both been old for their leagues, but a college hitter needs to catch lightning in a bottle to advance quickly enough for this not to be the case. So you can knock White for not having come up with any impact bats among his five high picks of college hitters, but it is a pretty insignificant knock, and the knock is not that he picked bad ones but rather that he didn't pick any that truly broke out and took it up another step (unless you really want to count Dunlap as a bad one). Plus, the low-round college hitters he has taken have turned out quite well, so the notion that he's at his best with HS talent is erroneous, IMO.
I addressed Meloan's K and BB in 132 .
Maybe they changed their minds about him starting...
I also read on a couple of 'Bama sites that he may have had some concerns about his grades not being good enough for school after all, coupled with his love of baseball, and the Dodgers may have gotten lucky with a late rounder.
http://tinyurl.com/657gvj
I wonder how much they are giving Melvin Ray?
Mitchell is now only a 1st baseman which means he needs to hit alot more to be considered a prospect. Given the plethora of 1st baseman we have at the lower level he doesn't have much of a window.
181
He was released and signed by Texas.
wow. thanks dude. i can't believe we just let the dude go. did he have an attitude problem or something?
seems like such a waste
Easily the most fun team to watch in the majors. Throw in the fact we have so many ex-Dodgers on the team, it is easy for Dodger fans to get behind this team.
Now if only Tiffany can comeback from his arm woes.
I expected them to contend, but I thought it would be in 2009 when Davis, McGee, and Price would start having an impact. Considering Baldelli has been a big zero and Pena has not come close to matching last years heroics, as good as they have been, they could actually get better this year and not fall back. From what I understand the defense has been a driving force behind some of their improvement.
No one wants to hear about anyone's roto team but when Longoria, Navarro, and Aybar went back to back to back, they were all my boys.
Canuck knows about that then I do. I think they just felt he would never be able to get major league hitters out.
Jackson was out of options, plus he hadnt fully regained his velocity when the Dodgers traded him. Still, a dumb move to deal him for what they got back, but I had no problems with actually trading him---as long as they got something good--which they didnt.
Trading Navarro was dumb on many many levels. It's almost like the Dodgers refused to just keep as many good players as possible, so they dealt Navarro bc they had another good one in Russ Martin. Just dumb. I'd love to have seen a Martin/Navarro pairing at catcher, with Russ getting time at 3b, or LF, or even 1b. Getting rid of a quality catcher that was as young as Navarro--just ridiculous.
Aybar for Betemit wasnt much better either, mainly because Aybar had better OBP skills and Betemit was older.
Its really a shame the Dodgers couldnt have kept their 2nd tier prospects bc they could have been used collectively to get something better than what they ended up with.
Joel Guzman has been the only guy that Ned dealt that hasnt really hurt that much. But when they moved him off SS, he lost most of his value anyhow.
This organization really needs a housecleaning. The moves, that were seen as minor in years past, are really coming home to roost now.
You look at Drew, Bradley, Werth, Cody Ross, then the guys at Tampa....You look at the Dodgers bloated payroll...It's bad. Replace Ned please.
Jackson was out of options
I thought since Jackson was placed on the 40-man in September 2003 -- when rosters expanded -- his option years used with LA were 2004 & 2005. He still had one option left when he was traded, and that was used by TB in 2006.
You can't have two starting catchers, any more than you can have two starting quarterbacks in the NFL
I don't get that at all. Are you saying that the controversy that would ensue by having competing catchers would outweigh the benefit of having two good catchers? Or that Navarro simply wouldn't function as well as a backup, assuming Russ still kept the job?
"Not only was Melvin Ray excelling on the gridiron at NFC, he was making his mark on the diamond as well. While most BAMA fans knew that Ray was a highly-touted football prospect, it's arguable that few of them realized that the young man was a legitimate Major League Baseball prospect as well. With the MLB draft coming up in June the reports surfacing indicate that Ray has drawn intense interest from the Houston Astros, New York Mets, and Cincinatti [sic] Reds, among others, due to his combination of raw speed and power as an outfielder. Of the 30 teams in the MLB it appears that Ray has filled out pre-draft informational questionaires for aproximately 25 of teams. Though he isn't guarenteed to be drafted in the first round, speculation is that Ray will likely go within the first 5 to 7 rounds. Such an opportunity would certainly have to cause a young man to sit down and re-think his options."
Nomar's suckitude at first and eventual move to 3rd made the deal pretty much moot, anyway.
Getting Mark Hendrickson in return is what makes trading Navarro a dumb idea.
The thing is though, you have to have bring home some other woman, right? To follow your analogy, the backup catcher on a good team should be kind of an ugly nanny that is good with the kids?
198 - the ironic part is the Dodgers got better production out of Aybar than they did out of Betemit. Aybar was two years younger, and thus in Ned's mind, inferior.
After Ned's comment about veterans that "What can be lost on [observers watching prospects play] in the excitement of accomplishment is how good the big-league player is", it strikes me that he is singularly unqualified to run any kind of baseball organization. I note in passing that the Angels left Brandon Wood and his .131 batting average on the major league roster rather than trading for a washed-up, roster-clogging veteran like Angel Berroa who would be worse with the glove, and no better with the bat. I have normally been loathe to say that Bill Stoneman/Tony Reagins have been smarter than Ned Colletti for the simple reason of Gary Matthews, Jr. and Torii Hunter's deals (GMJ's deal is bad now, and Hunter's will be bad in two years.) But with the Berroa deal, we now have a clear cut case where both GMs were faced with exactly the same difficulty at very nearly the same position (SS/3B for the Angels, SS for the Dodgers), and Colletti elected to swallow the Kool-Aid.
I'm done.
Ned sold early and lost the run up for something we didn't really need. Lousy LHP are a dime a dozen. Switch hitting catchers not so much. I defended Ned back then in the hope they saw something in Hendy but Joey P was right then and he's right now. It was a bad deal.
Oh boy. This is gonna be tough. OK: I just gotta get it out. I don't know how to break this to you, but, well, Ned traded Betemit for a middle reliever...
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