Weird, wild stuff at SOSG:

http://www.sonsofstevegarvey.com/2007/06/theres-no-better-way-to-spend-off-day.html

http://www.sonsofstevegarvey.com/2008/06/off-day-puzzle-2-solution.html

I guy who actually likes living in Ogden, where my in-laws are from! Wade is now my favorite bullpen hurler.

Since I don't read SoSG, I missed the puzzle. Bummer. I might have gained fame and glory by figuring it out.

Two books on my wish list: Jon's new one on the Dodgers and Cardboard Gods.

I can never see the term NPUT without thinking of Johnny 5 from the movie Short Circuit.

3
I was the first and only* student in my 9th grade geometry class to solve the "Dog's Mead" puzzle (which you can find on The Google). My fame and glory came in the shape of a balloon.

*I may have also been the only student to try to solve the puzzle, which our teacher gave us just for fun.

Kerhaw looks like a young Orel in his photo on the Dodgers home page.

Getting back to the last thread---I dont think many are upset with Hu being demoted. I've always had the attitude of --" always go with the guy that might not suck". Angel Berroa though does not fit that description.

7 - I am, but it's not so much that Hu is bad but that management doesn't recognize why a guy like Berroa is just godawful. He's an insult to Hu (who is, right now, a better defensive player) and won't likely do any better offensively. Even if Berroa is only a Mendoza-level bat, the incremental improvement there will ultimately not be worth the appreciable decrease he gives you defensively. Others have noted that even within the Kansas City organization, he was blocked by Tony Pena, a player who might just be the worst starting shortstop in either league. That says something, and for Ned to simply fail to notice it represents the kind of gross incompetence that simply stymies description.

Tonight's pitching matchup has quite a discrepancy in career wins, with Maddux leading Kershaw 350 to 0.

The last time there was a higher discrepancy in opposing starters' career wins was on 8/27/65, when Warren Spahn (361 wins) faced off against Darrell Sutherland (1 win) of the Mets.

9 - Send that one to Josh Rawitch.

7
I am not really that broken up about it. They could not keep sending Hu out to flail away. Berroa is a classic Ned move. He was perceived to be pretty good (or actually was pretty good; I haven't really looked at his ROY numbers) at one time and is now on the heap.

We just love to buy in on guys just before they fall off the cliff or as they are falling screaming towards the rocks below (Jones, Schmidt, Nomar, Tomko, Hendrickson). It's like buying airline stocks right now because they used to be profitable and they are a "value" because the prices are low.

The only problem I have is that I can not think of a better alternative, so criticizing is a bit disingenuous. Let's just hope he catches fire until Raffy comes back.

10
Done

11 Don't forget that Berroa had 10 HR in AAA this year. Its PVL syndrome + buying high. I guess it could be worse because the most we're on the hook for is Berroa's 500k buyout for next year but thats not necessarily a ringing endorsement either.

11

Your point on not having a better alternative right now in my mind sums up much of the Dodger roster at this point.

1.) We need more power, everyone agrees but who are we going to get without destroying the young nucleus that most people feel will offer a great future.

2.) Berroa fills a gap until Raffy comes back and then a decision can be made if he is good enough to stay as a back-up, there is no money involved here.

3.) We hope that when Jones comes back he catches fire and hits some HR'. For the Dodgers if he could hit 15 between his return and the end of the season, that would be an improvement, and maybe we get real lucky and Nomar comes back as a super utility player and is able to hit for 45 days before he gets injured.

In my opinion if there is ever a year to see where players are at before trades are made this is it.

Berroa fills a gap until Raffy comes back

Not really. The gap will still be there.

13
The Royals are still on the hook for Berroa's buyout next season. If the $5.5m option is exercised, it's all Dodgers (and God help us all).

11 Sums up how I feel about it. I actually don't find Berroa's signing that interesting or worth debating as much as it has here, but a) I don't expect much from him; b) know that Hu needs to be back in AAA starting every day and getting his confidence as a hitter back; and c) don't think Maza is an answer as even a stopgap; and d) can't suggest some other cheap alternative that could've been had as easily. (Though I did hold out wistful hope we could've had Betemit back, and from KC I liked German more, but don't think either of those guys were available.) So there you have it. A temporary stopgap guy who cost the team very little who will probably suck, but should be a bit of an upgrade on offense over the two temps he was replacing. If his defense is as bad as we fear it could be, well, that's a bummer, and I suspect they'd not keep him around for very long.

That's all I can think to say about Berroa.

Movin' on...

15 What does that mean?

18 Replacing a guy who can't hit with a guy who can't hit or catch doesn't solve anything.

17 Well said.

Or Berroa will be as bad with the bat as Hu/Maza, with worse defense.

It seems strange the Dodgers would go get a guy like Berroa if Furcal really is going to be back in a week. Is playing Berroa one more week instead of Hu really going to make a difference?

Thats why I think Berroa is here to stay. THe Dodgers wouldnt have made this move if the net gain was Berroa only plays for 1 week more than Hu.

It's hard to argue that despite his fielding, Hu shouldn't be in AAA to improve his hitting and make him a ballplayer. Perhaps the Dodgers could have held off on that until Furcal got back, but the goal of acquiring Berroa or any journeyman is to give Hu the opportunity to improve without making a noteworthy investment in the stopgap. Berroa was, in practical terms, acquired for free.

Berroa is awful, but BH is right in that this is nothing to get up in arms about. There are two sides to the debate, but each side has merit.

18
That Berroa's presence will not change the fact that there is a hole (or "gap") at shortstop. It will still be a huge weakness, and probably even more of one given that

(Hu's defense - Berroa's defense) >>> (Berroa's offense - Hu's offense).

And there not even any guarantee that (Berroa's offense - Hu's offense) >>> 0.

But the Berroa debate has driven bhsportsguy underground. When he comes back, there is a going to be a Thermidorian Reaction-like event I fear.

Aren't we basically in Rule 8 violation territory with this at this point? I seriously haven't heard anything new about Berroa that wasn't said twenty times three days ago. But maybe that's just me.

19 I see - I thought he meant when Furcal comes back there will still be a gap, which thankfully we can all agree will not be the case. Unless his back falls apart again.

If Furcal is not coming back for awhile...
1) How much worse is Berroa than Hu?
2) If the consensus is that Hu is better off regaining his confidence in AAA, is the short-term negative of playing Berroa offset by the long-term positive of Hu (hopefully) being a better hitter later?

When is Furcal coming back? The sooner it is, the (even) less sense it makes to add Berroa.

With the recent trend of locking up young talent to deals through their arbitration years, I think Angel Berroa is a worst case scenario from a club standpoint.

He was signed -- during the middle of his second year -- to a 4/$11m contract covering his 3-6 years. He then followed up his ROY 101 OPS+ with OPS+ of 81, 78, and 52 (not to mention bad defense) followed by two years in the minors.

11 - THE BETTER ALTERNATIVE IS LEAVING CHIN-LUNG HU ON THE ROSTER. Why is this even up for debate? His lousy glove will degrade the pitching, something he will not make up for with his bat.

28 - "His" referring to Berroa.

Maybe the Berroa thing will be like Juan Pierre.

People will be upset Berroa is on the roster. They'll complain.

Other people will complain about the complainers, citing that they should just accept it because Berroa's going to play everyday till Furcal comes back.

Don't know if it was discussed, but Helene Elliot wrote a column that featured Colletti venting the other day. He makes it sound like there will be a trade involving young players this time around.

Helene Elliot wrote a column that featured Colletti venting the other day

I loved the way Ned distinguished between players who "prepare to play" and players who "prepare to win".

Using +/-, in 2006 (the last season Berroa had a decent number of innings) Berroa was a -8 in 1117 defensive innings.

This year Hu is +4 in 210 innings. Projected over 1117 innings, Hu would be at +21, giving him a 29 play advantage over Berroa. Essentially, Hu makes one more play per 4 games (38 innings) than Berroa.

How does that translate into runs?

If they had any clue if or when Furcal would come back I doubt they get Berrora.

It's peculiar the Dodgers wouldnt have thought of promoting Ivan Dejesus. He's not on the 40-man, but neither was Berroa---Tiffee could have been DFA'ed either way.

If you need a guy to start for a week, then let DeJesus. When Furcal comes back, option DeJesus and keep Maza as utility guy.

DeWitt made the jump from AA without much problems. Surprise DeJesus wasnt given the chance, but maybe adding another kid just wasnt something Ned would do. Even if the alternative is Angel Berroa.

Elliott's column suggested that she thought some of the players would have to be traded if they didn't produce more.

She doesn't have a lot of patience for Colletti.

33 One play from a middle infielder is about .789 runs using linear weights numbers from a couple years ago.

35 DeJesus would be out of options by age 24 if you did that.

Thought you all might enjoy this account of my disastrous attempt to take my son to the Stadium:

http://tinyurl.com/5xn87l

37--That might not be too bad because if you're bouncing around the minors at age 25, you probably dont have much of a future.

38
You really needed to have a 6-year old like me. I just sat impassively watching the game.

But I was no fun.

So, any chance Andy is in the starting lineup tonight?

39 LaRoche is doing that at age 24 right now.

26 I couldn't have said it any better.

I also think the Berroa topic is probably tired at this point, but my main problem with it isn't that we acquired him or that we will play him or that Hu is going down. My main issue is...why NOW? If Furcal is close to coming back, just wait it out with LaRoche and Tiffee and Maza. What does Berroa really bring us that we're not already getting?

See? I couldn't say it any better.

41 Not much chance. He might face Wolf tomorrow at 1st base.

43 - Furcal will be back when he's back. None of us really know when that will be, or how long he will last.

45 Fair enough. Then Berroa is a potential long term solution? Isn't that even worse?

46 Not if Berroa starts hitting.

Can we get back to talking about how old Berrora looks? He looks like Wesley Snipes great grandfather.

31 36 I find it interesting that the one guy Ned will still call out by name is Penny. But yes, all of this anonymous criticism in the press about the young ones easily could be paving the way for justifying such a deal. Torre is secure and we're not going anywhere, but Ned needs to win now. If LaRoche can play first, how about Loney + Penny for....?

Sigh...

47 Okay, so we are taking a flyer on him and hoping he might come through. Actually, I can live with that.

I just hope it doesn't go the way of Baez, Tomko, Hendrickson, Lugo, and all the rest of Ned's "flyers".

38 Great story.

Not if Berroa starts hitting

Who's to say he won't?

Advantages of Berroa
1) He's literally free (Royals are paying 100% of salary
2) Before he arrived, non-Furcal SS were hitting .122/.173/.173 in 106 PA. Is Berroa really going to be worse than that?
3) Gives Hu a chance to regroup in AAA, since he is clearly pressing at the plate

Disadvantages of Berroa
1) He's worse defensively than Hu, to the tune of roughly one play per four games

47 - If you have ever seen those infomercials about the TotalGym with Chuck Norris and Kristy Brinkley, you will a very Berroa-like Wesley Snipes demonstrating some move on said piece of machinery. Snipes looks really old.

54 He'll look even older once he gets of federal prison in a few years.

gets out of federal

53 Nice breakdown. When shown this way I can definitely see that the downside is minimal. However, I feel like in the past Ned has taken a long time to give up on guys...he's slow to admit his mistakes, among other things.

If Berroa hits and helps the team, great. If he stinks worse than Hu, I just hope it gets noticed and dealt with accordingly.

55
Maybe Snipes can become a boxing champion in prison, a la "Undisputed".

However, I feel like in the past Ned has taken a long time to give up on guys

Old guys, that is.

Speaking of old, those infomercials always remind me how old Chuck Norris is.

60
Surely you do not doubt the great Chuck Norris? :)

Canuck

I just got done reading your piece from the last post. Nice work, though I have to disagree with you on one thing. Logan should not be drafting to fill spots in the minors. He should always, always select the best player available (if it makes sense with slotting restrictions) There is nothing that prevents a club from trading minor leaguers after their first year of service. That being said, if you should have a surplus of players fighting for one spot, a trade could be made to make the situation work out, and possibly fill out areas of need. I'd much rather have Melville, Martin, Withrow, and 6 others all trying for 5 spots on one of our minor league clubs. That's 9 players for 5 spots unless a trade is made. I bet the high ceiling pitcher might be able to net us a high ceiling center fielder, if that's where our area of need was to be. All in all, I don't think drafting to fill holes is a great idea, especially neglecting pitchers with TINSTAAPP and all. However, I have learned to trust Logan with his drafts, I just think that between McCourt and Watson, he doesn't have the same controll and latitude that he had back in 02 and 03.

47 ha, good call. well played.

62
I don't think Canuck was arguing White shouldn't take the best player available.

62 I think Canuck's point wasn't that he shouldn't be taking the best player available, just that he wasn't.

65 Um, I don't even understand what I just said, and Eric said it better anyway.

Carlos Santana becomes an all-star.
http://tinyurl.com/5dla3x

48 would penny + Loney for player "X" really be that bad of a thing? i would have to believe both those players have a lot of value in the trade market and should demand a lot in return. as much as i like loney and as much as i am pulling for him to do well, he is a .792 OPS guy in the minors and we may have seens some fools gold over the last 2 years. would laroche really be that bad of a thing playing 1B every day? you have the depth to trade penny (meloan, mcdonald, maybe schmidt).

so my as i implied earlier, i don't think loney+penny in a trade is really a horrible thing if you get something in return.

But yes, all of this anonymous criticism in the press about the young ones easily could be paving the way for justifying such a deal.

Or he could be following the PVLs among GMs who use the press to "light a fire" under the young players to perform better.

Someone better tell him nobody under the age of 45 reads newspapers anymore. Maybe Ned should start a blog.

I, too, just got caught up and enjoyed both CanuckDodger's writeup and Neal Pollack's blog entry tremendously.

I wonder if the pipeline clogging theory holds true much more for position players than pitchers. There clearly only so much regular playing time for, say, middle infielders, but with the increased emphasis on limiting pitches/innings on young pitchers, aren't at least the rookie and A/A+ teams starting maybe six pitchers each? Even if it is only five, that's twenty starting pitchers across those levels. Plus relief innings can be scheduled to some extent.

I don't mind the Berroa acquisition, since yeah he's free. Maybe he hits. He'll hit better than the SS's have so far.

But why send Hu down? Why couldn't Maza be sent down, creating an offense/defense platoon of Berroa/Hu? I'm really not concerned with stalling Hu's development for a couple weeks if it's helping the team win at the big league level.

Before he arrived, non-Furcal SS were hitting .122/.173/.173 in 106 PA. Is Berroa really going to be worse than that?

There's another way to look at that question.

Would the non-Furcal SS continue to be that bad---.122/.173/.173? There has to be a regression to the mean, even if the net result is still really bad.

68 Career minor league stats are largely meaningless, more recent performance is far more relevant. What's more important is that Loney hit a pretty legit (read, not massively BABIP fueled) .380 at age 22 in AAA, and is still a career .307/.359/.499 hitter in the bigs. Loney has amazing contact abilities and solid power potential, you can't give up on that already unless its to acquire an elite player.

On the last thread's Betemit/Aybar discussion, I wanted to argue that that was the price to pay to be rid of Danys Baez, but I think Colletti sent enough cash to cover that contract thus equaling the cost of a simple DFA.

38 I highly recommend a book called "1-2-3 Magic".

I figure by August 1, Ned will make a trade for a power hitter, by trading at least two Dodger young starting position players among Loney, Dewitt, Ethier (LaRoche in the mix too, though not a Dodger starter), and a couple of young pitchers--probably Kuo and Meloan.

This makes me sad on the one hand--I like all our youngsters--but any G.M in Ned's position would recognize the fact that this team as presently constituted will never be of championship quality without more power.

Logan White's not without blame: it's hard to draft this many good young position players without power.

And for the LaRoche marching & chowder society, even if he is a 25 or 30 home run man in the majors, that will only offset Jeff Kent's retirement. Because until this year, that's about what we could count on Kent for...
If we are going to challenge we have to have at least two players with that power.

I only hope Ned doesn't get taken in the inevitable trade...

73 Plus Penny has a limited no-trade clause (I haven't seen the terms anywhere) and his 2009 option is "only" $8.75M, which is cheap in this day and age even if he is only fourth-starter quality next season. That salary probably does increase his trade value though.

75 - I'm reading that right now.

32 I always had a coach that gave speeches with little cliches like that; nobody ever knew what he was talking about. There was one time he said we were playing like ants but we needed to play like bees because "bees always work for the good of the group." What do ants do?

The best part was that it was high school tennis and absolutely no one at the school cared how we finished.

Dining with 'Dre has a new post:

http://diningwithdre.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/06/shabu_hachi.html

73
Yet you always cite the career minor league stats of Maza/Tiffee/Lindsey as a reason why they shouldn't have given them a chance even though their most recent minor league numbers were sterling even given for PCL league effects.

At what age do you ignore recent performance as an example of improvement?

Loney has amazing contact abilities

95ks
55bbs
681 career Abs.

1-2-3 Magic, Raising The Spirited Child, and on and on....sometimes they just take you by surprise.

any G.M in Ned's position would recognize the fact that this team as presently constituted will never be of championship quality without more power

Ned has stated that he cares about speed and athleticism.

Torre has stated that he's not concerned about power.

82 - Well, he just said Loney has amazing contact abilities. He didn't say he is using them.

76
Guessed I missed those years that Kent hit between 25-30 home runs for us every year. Try 29, 20, 14 and probably around 15-18 this year.

82 In the major, almost all at age 23 and less; Loney turned 24 this May. I don't know if that is "amazing", but isn't it pretty good for a youngster with a .499 Slg% ?

72
There's another way to look at that question.

Would the non-Furcal SS continue to be that bad---.122/.173/.173? There has to be a regression to the mean, even if the net result is still really bad

You are absolutely right. After I re-read my comment, I didn't like the way I worded that point.

I just think Hu's head is messed up right now , and he needed to be sent down to regain some confidence. Of course, Torre could have used the Durocher-to-Mays tactic of saying, "kid, you're my SS. I don't care what you hit" and perhaps relieved the pressure. And I guess that is the crux of the argument.

81 In the case of Maza and Tiffee, this year was still very much in the small sample size umbrella, and since they don't have any recent accomplishments to show, career numbers are just a quick way to say they stink. I tend to assume that if you aren't getting it done by age 25, there's little hope for a player.

Lindsey is actually starting to look like a not bad idea for a call up since he's hit so well the last year and a half. I'm usually really dubious of guys like that but he's shown real improvement in the last couple years and he's not striking out that much.

The theme of the day among the Dodger followers is "they need power." The conventinal, and probably correct, wisdom is, if you try to trade for it, you give up too much of the future. And that's probably true.

So I started thinking back to the trades Campanis pulled off in 1975 and 1976 that brought in Dusty Baker and Reggie Smith who, combined, hit 62 HR's in 1977 and 40 in 1978. How'd he do that?

-- Baker cost us Wynn, who was near the end; Paciorek, who actually had a surprisingly good and long career; Royster, who was an okay role player; and Lee Lacy, who came back a year later for Mike Marshall.

-- Smith cost us, basically, Joe Ferguson, who also returned shortly thereafter, in return for Rafael Landestoy and Jeffrey Leonard, which was a terrible trade.

We got a couple of good years out of Smith, maybe three or four out of Baker. The younger players we gave up, directly and indirectly, were pretty good and had careers that took them well into the 80s and early 90s, long after both had left and retired. Still, they were probably good deals.

I don't think you could get hitters like that, even hitters near the end of their careers like Smith (or before him Wynn) as cheaply now. I think SABRmetrics have raised the perceived value of power hitters; no one will give it up for anything less than front-line quality or redundant front-line potential.

The Dodgers will find power in what we've got now, or they won't find it, unless they are willing to blow up the team to get it.

89 i agree, the lindsEy for sweeney move needed to be made weeks ago.

85 Career line drive percentage around 20%, even better in the minors.

53 - no, but he won't be better offensively. Ergo, he is a worse overall package.

91 The any warm body for Sweeney move needed to be made weeks ago.

Lindsey could at least bring the threat of power off the bench, something Sweeney is not likely to do. Bring him up.

89 Lindsey is actually starting to look like a not bad idea for a call up since he's hit so well the last year and a half.

Yes!!

Andre's piece on that Japanese restaurant made me extremely hungry. I'm going to seek out the San Francisco equivalent of Shabu up here today. Mmmmmmm.

So, Kershaw vs. Maddux tonight, anyone excited?

97 I'm just excited there is a game at all. Last night was brutal.

I am actually really looking forward to seeing Kershaw pitch. Although on TV, this will be my first time seeing him in action.

I am excited by Kershaw versus Maddux. I'm giving up Billy Bragg to watch it. That said, the season has reached its Rubicon...this road trip against less-than-spectacular teams will say a lot. I still think that if Ned trades any of these dudes mid-season, he should be lynched. The offseason is another story, but as long as he's got 'em cheap, he should at least give them a shot.

The Dodgers will find power in what we've got now, or they won't find it, unless they are willing to blow up the team to get it.

This is something I have been mulling lately. A better understanding of what players are worth, locking up good young players early on in their careers, more parity ... are we returning to the times when teams pretty much consisted of who they drafted? It seems this way, at least from the perspective of good hitters. Pitchers seem to be more mobile since they are a less predictable quantity.

79 When my hs football coach got mad at us, he called us "sakiyaks." I still don't know what that means. I assume it's bad.

90 To be sure, seeking a trade and making one are two different things. Berroa after all is the sum total of weeks of Ned looking for a PV utility man. But the seeking part could still explain the torrent of 'underachieving entitled spoiled kids' press. And I don't have a lot of faith in Ned making the right deal, especially as the deadline approached. He strikes me as a guy who would see immediate salvation in someone like Ken Griffey, Junior, who like Berroa was really good once .

90
Wynn should get more then a footnote in your story since he was also acquired for power and gave us the most power for one season of anybody we have ever traded for.

The full circle as we traded who would have become our greatest power hitter when we dealt Howard to the Senators for Osteen who was then dealt for Wynn when we needed power 10 years later. Ken McMullen was also in the Howard/Osteen deal and he had some decent power for a 3rd baseman.

93
You keep making definitive statements that are not so obvious. Hu is absolutely lost at the plate right now. It's not unreasonable to expect Berroa to be better than Hu offensively right now, or over the next few weeks or month.

Whether or not Berroa as a whole -- offensively and defensively -- would be better, is debatable.

He strikes me as a guy who would see immediate salvation in someone like Ken Griffey, Junior, who like Berroa was really good once

Berroa was never "really good once".

92 - Sorry, reg, I was just being silly.

104
Berroa was never "really good once"

He did put up a 101 OPS+ as a 25 year old, albeit with bad defense. That's at least pretty good. I'd bump it to "really good."

106
An average OPS with bad defense shouldn't be labeled "very good". It just shouldn't.

And the fact that he achieved an average OPS while playing shortstop is negated by the bad defense.

If Kemp is suspended, how 'bout this OF:

LF LaRoche
CF Pierre
RF Ethier

97

It made me really hungry too. But I don't have the flexibility to seek out Shabu Shabu today.

I think there is a place down on Del Mar and Lake in Pasadena...The Boiling Pot.

Hmmmm

How is a dead average OPS+ with bad defense really good? or even good? It is average, we are not trying to raise the self esteem of 10 year olds here.

105 I meant to address JoeyP with that.

Especially when the comparison is not only being made to being 'really good', but like 'Ken Griffey Jr'.

But the overall point is well taken. Ned not only focuses on the wrong stats, but he places too much weight on older stats and not enough weight on more recent performance.

If a guy once won 15-20 games or hit 20 HRs or hit .280 five to ten years ago, Ned considers him worth giving a lot of money, regardless of recent performance (much less recent relvant performance).

108 I would prefer this one:
LF LaRoche
CF Ethier
RF Young

If Kemp is suspended, I'm hoping Young gets a few days in a row starting.

108 When Kemp serves his suspension (the only if is exactly how long it will be) how about this OF: LaRoche, Jones, Ethier. It doesn't seem unlikely that the appeal won't be heard until after Jones returns.

106 110 112 113 That 113 actually was my definition of "really good once." I'd never really compare Berroa to Junior. But what was the first thing Ned said about him--he's a former ROY and thus deserves a second chance.

Yay! I won a bid for a Wii Fit on ebay, so I can give it to my g/f for her birthday next weekend. (And it's a gift I can enjoy, too.) I can't wait to hear a robot bluntly tell us we need to lose weight.

Oh yeah if we only had the Giants Schmidt and Kent and the BoSOX Nomar and the Pierre Marlin we would be pretty good.

New post up top.

I'm very excited about Kershaw pitching tonight, can't wait till tonight.