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Comparison I Can't Resist Making
2004-01-21 08:40
by Jon Weisman

Adrian Beltre is 24, turning 25 in April.

Here is what Eric Gagne did at age 24: 4-6, 5.15 ERA, 101 1/3 innings, 106 hits allowed, 20 home runs allowed, 60 walks allowed, 79 strikeouts.

At age 25, Gagne went 6-7, 4.75 ERA, 151 2/3 innings, 144 hits allowed, 24 home runs allowed, 46 walks allowed, 130 strikeouts.

At age 26, Gagne went 4-1, 1.97 ERA, 82 1/3 innings, 55 hits allowed, 16 walks allowed, 114 strikeouts.

Gagne is obviously not a first-rate comparison for a third baseman. But like it or not, Beltre is still young and primed to improve.

Comparison I'd Like to Resist Making

Adrian Beltre is 24, turning 25 in April.

Last year, Beltre had an EQA of .251 (.260 is average) and an OPS+ of 89 (100 is average).

At age 24, Alfonso Soriano had an EQA of .299 and an OPS+ of 131.

At age 25, Soriano had an EQA of .296 and an OPS+ of 128.

Soriano, maligned for his plate discipline, has walked 61 times in the past two years, in a Yankee lineup with better hitters behind him. Beltre, in a Dodger lineup that gives opposing pitchers little else to be afraid of, has walked 74 - once more per month.

Beltre signed a $5 million contract this year; Soriano will earn $5.4 million.

Soriano has less service time in the majors than Beltre, thus lowering what Soriano could stand to earn in salary arbitration this month. In his third full season with the Yankees last year, Soriano earned $800,000. (By comparison, Beltre earned $1 million in his third season and $1.25 million in his fourth.)

Justice dictates that the Dodgers should not be paying Beltre only $400,000 less than Soriano in 2004. But that's life in the big city right now. The greater point may be that baseball should review the rules that so prioritize major-league experience - good or bad - in salary arbitration awards.

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