I salute to the moundsmen!

2003 all over again

(Was LAT'd)
BBTN showed zero highlights from the Dodger game, except for the final out right after it happened. Kemp's home run apparently came too late to be part of the "Touch 'Em All" segment.

Thanks for wasting my time, ESPN!

But excellent job by the Blue Crew's pitching staff for most of the past two weeks, and past month really. Hip hip!

And a big shout out to the handler of the moundsmen. The catcher.

As mentioned in the other thread, Ethan Martin was at the game and announced before the first pitch was thrown out. He looked all 19 years of his age. He wasn't wearing a uniform or anything, just street clothes.

5 Is Ethan Martin Russel's brother?

6 No. He's our 1st round pick this year.

that was a fun game, lowe was brilliant, bison jacked one, and the crowd was ecstatic after after jones' steal...im sure this has all been expressed but a very pleasant trip back after last night's snoozer

Looks like this season is turning around. Can't wait to play the D'Backs after the All Star break ends.

9
Soon to be the Arizona "3 Backs".

L.A. Is the stop for SportsCenter's titletown gimmick tonight.

I'm probably a grinch, but I hate it when they show Gibson's homer with Jack Buck's call. Luckily I have the correct call emblazoned so deeply in memory.

11 - I hate it too. Nothing personal against Jack.

I mean, I don't hate the call, but it's No. 2 in my book.

13. That's more accurate for me too. Thanks. I just replay Vin in my head and am grateful for the visual.

A couple of weeks ago I was showing it to my ten year old son and I implored him to listen to Vin's call:

Me: Listen to Vin right here,
Josh: He's not saying anything.
Me: Exactly.

11 - It's very rare when you have one classic play have two classic calls.

But, I have a question. Who called the Gibson HR for the Dodgers and does anybody have it? Text or audio?

Tony Jackson:

>>And Juan Pierre is said to be ahead of schedule with the MCL sprain in his left knee. He was supposed to miss four to six weeks, so I'm not exactly sure what ahead of schedule translates to.<<

Elton Brand has passed up Sasha Cohen on Bill Plaschke's enemies list.

"And look who's coming up... High fly ball into right field, she is gone!"

There's another call?

15
Don Drysdale did the radio call for the Dodgers and it's pretty good. Drysdale's voice goes up about two octaves when he says "WAY BACK!"

Wikipedia is right (or close to being right) on this one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vin_Scully#1988_World_Series

15 - here's the whole at bat:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=JhDsEa9sDpE

Well the crowd on its feet and if there was ever a preface, to Casey at the Bat, it would have to be the ninth inning. Two out. The tying run aboard, the winning run at the plate, and Kirk Gibson, standing at the plate.

Gibson, a deep sigh...re-gripping the bat...shoulders just shrugged.think surel partner your going to thow me that 3-2 backdor slider...now goes to the top of the helmet, as he always does...steps in with that left foot. Eckersley, working out of the stretch...here's the three-two pitch...and a drive hit to right field (voice changes to high pitch) WAY BACK! THIS BALL... IS GONE!!! (After delay) I DO NOT BELIEVE WHAT I HAVE JUST SAW!!! And this time, Mighty Casey did NOT strike out!

Bob will be glad to know that Joe Montana's son has just enrolled at Oaks Christian High School and the Montana family is moving down to the Conejo Valley from NoCal. Montana's son will be one of the hottest sought after college recruits, but first he must compete with Wayne Gretzky's son for dibs on who gets to throw passes to Wil Smith's son at WR. vr, Xei

19 - is Drysdale's call the one that starts, "And here comes Kirk Gibson"?

I distinctly remember hearing the call on the radio, in the backseat of the car. My parents decided that going to dinner was more important than watching the 9th inning.

21 Those pants would make Lindsay Lohan proud.

This is as close as I could come to finding it. It's a mix of Vinny, Drysdale and Buck calling Gibson's HR.

http://webpages.charter.net/steveandjannan/Gibson!.wav

21 oh man thanks for that, I've never seen a full good video like that on youtube, i'm in tears thats just a beautiful thing, unfortunately i was only a month old : (.

26
The Drysdale transcript is in 22

23 I guess I may just go back for homecoming next year...i graduated with clausen though, so no big deal : )

22 - Thanks. Now finding the complete audio is on my to do list.

I've never understood why they always go with the Buck call; those of us not lucky enough to be there were watching on TV, not listening. Pretty amazing every time I watch it, I remember it like it was yesterday even though I was only 9 years old.

24 In October 1988, I was dating the woman who would become my wife about eight months later. We were in the most passionate phase of the entire relationship. We drove down to San Diego for a romantic weekend, shacking up in a motel near La Jolla. I got into the room and turned on the game. After watching about an inning, my girlfriend let it be known that I was missing the point of our visit. Right. Not a problem. I turned the game off.

(Train enters tunnel.)

So we enjoyed the afterglow for awhile until finally I said, "Hey, let me see if the game is still on." Now she was okay with it. The bottom of the ninth inning was just getting started.

So, as a result, my memories of that call by Scully are inseparable from other very pleasant recollections. It's almost too much. Imagine how freaky it is for me that, for this one call, Scully referred to the homerun ball as "she?" I don't recall him ever doing that before or since.

Can anyone explain to me why there were two different calls of that home run? Were there two different broadcasts of a World Series game? I am much more familiar with Buck's call. Is that because that's the broadcast I saw?

32 - Ironically enough at tonight's game Vinny said, "She is gone" on Kemp's HR.

33 -

Vinny - NBC TV
Jack Buck - CBS Radio
Don Drysdale - Dodgers Radio

30 I have a cassette of the entire 9th with Drysdale. I got it from the old coot engineer that sat in the booth behind Vinny. Maybe I'll bring it to the picnic on my boombox.

33-I think Buck did the national radio broadcast.

As for the reasoning behind playing that call rather than NBC's, I figure it has to be about money.

Just watched the youtube clip. Eckersley v. Gibson was the battle of the evil-looking mustaches.

I love watching how incredibly happy Gibby was. Like a kid. And Scully has the timing of a great actor. His silence is wonderful, but when he finally says something, after all those pictures and crowd noises, he says exactly the right thing at the exact right moment. Wow.

Here's a question that might require some research.

Will Pat Burrell be the first player with an OPS above 1.000 not to make the All-Star team?

They need to get the fans out of the voting.

32 Wow. I had to light up a cigarette after reading that one.

Beats my watching the game as a freshman in the dorms at SFSU with several other baseball fans (non Dodger fans but into it all the same). Great memory to be sure. But I'll take yours.

It's amazing, too, in this game of inches, how close things could have gone differently, depriving him and all of us of that moment. The "little nubber" that just went foul... the snap throw to first that Mike Davis just beat back. Amazing.

Does anyone know where to find a clip of the 4 + 1 game?

I'm with 37 . It's gotta be about money or rights somehow. I firmly believe that given a choice between the Buck and Scully calls, nobody would ever choose Buck, particularly given that it's a Dodger game. (Personally, nothing against Buck, but his call is my third choice -- although I can see why some people would choose it over Drysdale.)

39 First, manager and now players vote to choose the reserves.

And it happened in 2002, when Larry Walker was left off the NL team despite hitting this at the All-Star Break, .350/.429/.653

32 Definitely the most sexually suggestive yet heartfelt moment I've read while on DT

Okay, now this is just the words so see what you think.

Jack Buck:

Gibson...swings and a fly ball to deep right field. THIS is gonna be a home run! UNBELIEVABLE! A home run for Gibson! And the Dodgers have won the game, five to four; I don't believe what I just saw! I don't BELIEVE what I just saw!

Vin Scully:

Sax waiting on deck, but the game right now is at the plate.
"High fly ball into right field, she i-i-i-is... gone!!
(67 seconds of cheering)
"In a year that has been so improbable... the impossible has happened!

16 Juan Pierre may be back even sooner than Tony Jackson thinks. :-)
I wasn't aware the player has the final say.

Cubs would recommend rehab for Alfonso Soriano

>> Alfonso Soriano has the final say on whether he will go on a minor-league rehab stint before returning to the Cubs' lineup, just like any veteran under the terms of baseball's collective bargaining agreement. <<

http://tinyurl.com/6y7z2w

47 C. Disabled List-Assignment to Minor League club
(1) There shall be no assignment of a Player by a Major League Club to a Minor League club while such Player is on a Major League Disabled List; provided, however, that with the Player's written consent, a copy of which shall be forwarded to the Association, and with the approval of the Commissioner, a Player on the Disabled List may be assigned to a Minor League club for up to a maximum of twenty days (thirty days for pitchers) for each injury, or reoccurrence of an injury, for the purpose of rehabilitation, subject to the limits contained in Article XIII(H). Separate consent shall be required for a rehabilitation assignment for a new injury or a reoccurrence of an injury. No consent shall be effective for longer than twenty days (thirty days for pitchers).

Woah, looks like I have a lot of DTing to catch up on yet again, but two questions for the crew:

1 - Who is the DT consensus to stack the Final Man voting for?

2 - Is 2008 Elton Brand the new 2003 JI
JIM THOME...or the new 2004 Terrell Owens?

23 I might have to take in 1 of those Oaks Christian games.
32 Zounds! In 88 I had started my own business and missed the entire season... the YT clip was the first time I had seen the famous at bat.

Jack Wilson reminds me of Julio Lugo... he can replace Lugo on the Red Sox the day after my birthday, but he shouldn't come to L.A.

Over at Fangraphs.com, USS Mariner's Dave Cameron has a short article up titled "Is Matt Kemp Over-Rated?" It's worth a look, but I can't say I agree with the whole thing.

49
1) I would vote for Burrell
2) Re: Elton Brand, anything that angers Bill Plaschke is A-OK with me!

Has anyone checked in on ToyCannon?

My pal with Clips season tix is beyond bummed.

21 thanks so much for that. my coworkers are wondering why a grown man is crying in his cubicle.

Can you imagine if Gibby would have been called out on catchers interference. I've seen it called for less on that steal by Mike Davis.

From Richard Justice at TSN.com on Bonds.

Word is the Mets, Diamondbacks, Rays and maybe even the Red Sox haven't ruled out signing him for the stretch run.

51 - Well, he puts a lot in the BABIP thing, which is certainly fine although I think he should take into account Kemp's infield hit ability. Beyond that, it's the same question of whether the HR power will come that everyone else has.

50 23 , i went to an oaks christian vs fillmore game and i think it was clausen's jr year, and the difference in talent was unreal between the two teams. clausen played most of his games against teams like that any QB can look good throwing on 2nd and 2 with 6 seconds to throw the ball every play. i'm not knocking clausen he has all the talent in the world, arm strength, and is mobile enough, but when people were saying he was the best HS QB since elway that is a little ridicolous

57
I covered that game for the Daily News!

Clausen and Tyler left the game at halftime to catch a flight out to Chicago to go see the USC-Notre Dame game.

The game was played in beautiful Downtown Fillmore. I ate at the IHOP before the game.

58 I'm guessing you didn't order the Peach Pancakes.

51 Can't disagree with any of that. You can't strike out as much as Kemp does without walking or hitting for power.

Expect big things in the Brewers-Rockies game this afternoon.

It's not being televised, so I expect that someone will hit six home runs or a pitcher will strike out 21.

You mean you don't think Dave Bush can strike out 21?

Can someone tell Kemp that he could probably take another step of two for his leadoff? His leads always look so minute.

What a depressing series of letters to Tim Brown in response to his article about Kim Ng. Read at your own peril:

http://tinyurl.com/6z6hkf

Brian Dohn needs a series of "Thank you for Not..."
http://tinyurl.com/59a76d

If Kemp only becomes a slightly better version than Juan Encarnacion, the Dodgers are screwed.

Juan E came up with the Tigers, and at age 22 put up a line of:
.329/.354/.561.

Then he didnt improve at all. Got worse. Didnt hit homers, didnt walk and generally swung at everything.

65 Encarnacion was Kemp's top comparable last year.

One thing Cameron's article ignores is Kemp's minor league track record. Between age 21 and 22 he OPSed around .935 at AAA.

And Kemp is 23, not 24.

If Kemp becomes Encarnation, we're not screwed, we've got a lot of $$$ coming off the books and we'll still be able to find an impact bat if needed.

Kemp is on pace for 48 Walks. His zone judgment still "looks" terrible, but 50ish walks is an acceptable number for a line drive hitter with power.

Encarnacion does have 2 world series rings.
1 with the 2003 Marlins
1 with the 2006 Cardinals.

Sometimes bad players have all the luck and get labeled "winners".

So if Furcal never got hurt and we got the Penny of 06/07 how many games would we be up at this point?

67 If Kemp doesn't break out, we're not screwed, but we're pretty close. We'd pretty much be left with Andy and Loney as guys that could become great players, and you can't win with a big group of average guys.

68 Except Kemp doesn't have power right now.

I'm actually thinking the best thing for the Dodgers to do this offseason is just go hardcore on defense, since really all we can do to improve on offense is pray someone breaks out. Give Hu a job and pay Mark Ellis. I'd be a lot more comfortable giving McDonald and more marginal guys starts if they had a lock down defense behind them.

70 Maybe one or two more. Furcal was due for a slump and Penny's replacements have been awesome.

This was probably posted earlier but in that article on MLB.com about Ethan Martin being close to signing there was some worrisome bits on last year's #1:

>> Meanwhile, last year's first-round pick (19th overall), Chris Withrow, is nursing a recurring sore right elbow. Club officials insist there is no structural damage; however he has not pitched in a game this year and there is no timetable on when he will.

Last month, Withrow apparently was close to being assigned to a Minor League roster, but suffered another setback. He currently is throwing at Class A Inland Empire, but it is not known when he will be game-ready and assigned to a Minor League roster.

After a series of injuries have sidetracked the careers of first-round pitchers Greg Miller and Scott Elbert, the club is being extra cautious bringing back Withrow. Miller continues to struggle at Triple-A, while Elbert is throwing hard again at Double-A.

The 19-year-old Withrow, who signed last year for a $1.35 million bonus, pitched only nine innings in six games last year.<<

60 -- You can't disagree with anything there? How about this: "The 'he's young' thing works for only so long, and Kemp is rapidly getting to the point where he needs to produce at the plate." It really is insufficient to say that I disagree with that. The statement is astonishingly stupid. Kemp IS young, less experienced than most professional baseball players his age because of his basketball background, and yet for all that he HAS produced "at the plate," to a tune of .299/.340/.471 in the majors in parts of three seasons before his 24th birthday. I don't care if somebody says he did it with luck or voodoo, he DID IT. Now let's put this in some context. Chase Utley is talked about as God's gift to hitting. Sure, at age 29. Utley didn't make the majors till his age 24 season, and all he could produce then was a line of .239/.322/.373. At age 25, all Utley was good for was MLB production of .266/.308/.468. Utley wasn't much of an asset to the Phillies till he was 26, and that isn't at all uncommon in the majors. Yet Kemp and other Dodger youngsters are looked at like failures if they don't look bound for the Hall of Fame before they are 25. It is total nonsense and I won't hesitate to call it for what it is.

65

How does paying the league minimum to Kemp "screw" the Dodgers regardless of his level of production?

74
So you're one of them fans who just wants to hold on to a bunch of lottery tickets instead of taking the instant CC Sabathia cash payout? ;)

74

Toss in there Kemp leads baseball in outfield assists, while making only 1 error and is made to sound like a lousy defensive player. I actually thought he looked very good in CF, looks a little uncomfortable in RF though….

74 I didn't think that was the point of Cameron's piece. He wasn't branding Matt Kemp a failure, he was just pointing out some very real and very worrisome flaws in his came that he needs to correct.

75 Nothing hurts you more than a bunch of average guys, especially ones you're hesistant to give up on. You don't have enough talent to win and it's really hard to improve the team because you need to give out gigantic contracts to gain just one win, and that's if those great players are even avialable. See the Blue Jays for more.

71 Have you seen Ellis' stats this year? And he is 31. There should be no more talk of him wearing this uniform.

77 Advanced defensive stats are pretty down on Kemp's ability to play right field.

79 A 102 OPS+ and elite defense? Yeah, I've seen them.

He's also only got a .252 BABIP so he's going to improve.

75

Reg, why would you assume that the Dodgers wouldn't bench Kemp if he is unable to produce? Heck why would you assume that if he does not pick it up in the next week or two he won't be benched for Juan Pierre?

Wow. PECOTA tells me that the Dodgers are now over 13% more likely than the DBacks to win the division. That's a big jump from one game.

Call me crazy but I think that Jones might turn the corner in the second half this year and carry our team for stints. I'm not expecting Pujols-type numbers but I don't think 20 HR is out of the question. Despite our lack of power, we still have 3 to 5 guys with a decent shot at 20 HRs and our pitching has been stellar. I don't think we have the tools to win it all by any means but the NL West is ours for the taking.

78 -- I wouldn't have recommended the piece if I didn't think Cameron said something worth reading, but you responded to my statement that I didn't agree with everything he said by saying you saw nothing to disagree with. Well, I think I did point out something Cameron said that you should disagree with.

80

What do those stats say about his ablity to play Center Field?

73 i see elbert has only started 1 out of 10 games, is he no longer a starting pitcher?

84 On May 18 the DBacks were 28-16 (.636). Since then they have gone 17-30 (.362).

There isn't anyone behind us that I think will finish over .500.

I like our chances.

Did I miss any DT discussion on the Lowe for Renteria trade rumor mentioned in the LA Times this morning?

Interesting that Lowe is pitching well and Renteria is slumping and still that is all the Dodgers are mentioned getting for Lowe. If the Dodgers don't see LaRoche in their future, wouldn't Lowe and LaRoche fetch more than a Renteria?

Does anybody think Texeria(sp) can play third still?

Okay, guys, check out Baseball America for a nice article on Ethan Martin. BA just named him 2008 High School Player Of The Year.

75--Because its difficult to replace average players with superstars, if the club is still holding on to hope that the average players will turn into superstars.

If the Dodgers wait on Kemp/Loney to become stars, they are likely going to pass on Teixeira, Matt Holiday, etcs..

If Kemp/Loney dont become break out stars, all the sudden the Dodgers are stuck with a group of average players that will command more & more money through arbitration increases.

If the Dodgers signed Texeira to play third base, it would be the greatest compromise thought up by someone not named Roger Sherman.

73 Man that injury nexus is a harsh mistress. I remember everyone touting Withrow's easy, repeatable delivery as a huge plus when we signed him.

90--Do the Tigers have another SS they can go to? I doubt they'll give up a key every day piece, especially since they've been hot lately. They'll likely still win the AL Central even given their terrible start to the year.

92 You have a point with Loney but if the Dodgers have a chance to sign Holliday, I don't think Kemp is holding them back, if anything it makes Ethier expendable. Even if Loney turns into a no power 1B, is their anything to suggest that he won't hit at least around .300 every year?

94 -- Pitching a ball is an unnatural act. A nice delivery is well and good, but it never negates that fact.

86 Fair enough.

83 They'd bench him if he's unable to produce, but would they bench him if he has an .800 OPS and average defense? Would they seek to improve there? Would an improvement even be available?

87 Amazing, but defensive stats are useless in small sample sizes.

96 -- Logan White said recently that he expects Loney to hit 30 HR's when he is 26 or 27. Much to JoeyP's consternation, Loney will either prove or disprove White's prediction while wearing a Dodger uniform and Teixeira is wearing some other team's uniform.

81 He has more errors then Kent.

91 "His 130th pitch of the game..."

85
I would be shocked if Andruw hits 20 HR the rest of the year. If he hits around .250 the rest of the way, his line would be something like .250/.340/.530, which would be great. He'd end his year with a .220/.315/.430 ish line.

I would be happy with Andruw hitting 10-12 HR the rest of the way, with some walks mixed in with an average of .250 or higher.

100 Errors mean nothing. Last year he lead the league in RZR, and was 4th in +/-. Combine this with an above average bat for a middle infielder and you have a guy that's very close to being an elite player.

I saw a post over on AM570's site that the Dodgers should trade Kemp for Dallas McPh. straight up. That is just crazy. Of course the guy sited the Dodgers crowded OF. Which we all know is not really crowded. He also mentions Kemp not getting along with his teamates which I've never really heard anything to support that. There was the incident with Kent, but that is the past and was way over blown.

100 Kent doesn't have enough range to make many errors.

Kent's rate2 on a team heavy with groundball pitchers (which should give him extra credit in this stat) is an awful 90 this year. Ellis is routinely above 110, which is excellent.

BTW, Kirk Gibson is on the Jim Rome show right now. 570AM

104 A little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

91 -- Pitch counts like that are not at all uncommon in high school and college games.

Anyone else having trouble getting into Bill James Online? I keep getting a "Service Unavailable" message.

98 Matt Kemp has 964.7 career innings in RF and 631.0 in CF. Is either sample size large enough to mean anything? Does the "he's young, still learning" argument apply to defense also?

103. I wouldn't say errors mean nothing. Just like I wouldn't say batting average means nothing. It's just that there are better measures. That was your point, right?
vr, Xei

120 I don't have any numbers to back me up but what I remember from Jones during his big HR years was crazy streakiness, if he hits a couple of white-hot streaks between now and September he might not reach 20 but he could get darn close. He did bang out 92 in 05 and 06.

oops, I meant 102.

98

So we would be "screwed" if our worst regular outfielder is putting up an OPS of .800 (and not costing much)?

So with 965.2 innings in RF showing that Kemp's defence is poor, we can assume this is correct.

But with 631.0 innings in CF showing that Kemp's defence is amazing, we can assume that it is due to a small sample size.

Is that correct?

Also didn't Kemp come up as a center fielder thoughout his minor league career (at least until vegas)?

112 Errors mean a lot less than batting average because they punish you for having range.

90 -- I didn't see any Lowe-for-Renteria trade rumor in the Times, or the on-line version at least.

I do not care what his peripheral stats are, .243 is nowhere near elite, and at his age, not likely to improve. The Dodgers do not need a 1-2 year stop gap at 2nd base.

102 he would repeat last years performance with those final numbers.

Do you have any numbers to back that up?

118 ohhh noo take cover.

Was last night the first time Andruw Jones opened his stance up this year? I don't recall him having an open stance at any point during his career, but I'm happy to see he's being proactive in changing his hitting rather than hoping it works itself out.

115 I didn't look up his previous years centerfielding (which is terrible) my mistake.

Kemp comes out as an average centerfielder and a terrible right fielder in those systems. Neither one is a great sample size but the right field one is close to relevant.

We're only screwed if everyone is average. If you have average Kemp on a team with a ton of great players, he's an asset. If he's one of your best players, that's when you're in trouble.

110
Try this:
http://downforeveryoneorjustme.com/

122 lyons said on dodgers live the AAA hitting coach recommended it to him.

54

I think in 05 I saw someone called out for interference on a pitch out. There was no way he could have been in the way of the catcher, but because he stepped into the pitch, his body hung over the plate a bit.

Tracy went nuts.

118 - What's the alternative? Moving DeWitt or LaRoche over? Going with Hu? Throwing a ton of money at Orlando Hudson (another 31+ year old player)?

118 You don't care if the numbers say he's going to improve, he's not going to improve?

Finally got into Bill James Online. Here are some defensive stats:

Mark Ellis
715 innings, +24 plus/minus
MLB rank: 2nd

Jeff Kent
561 innings, -8 plus/minus
MLB rank: 28th

If Ellis played in Kent's 561 defensive innings, his pro-rated +/- would be +19, meaning he makes 27 more plays than Jeff Kent. Reg, I don't remember the value of a middle infield play, but if it's around 0.75 runs, Ellis is about 20 runs better than Kent in only 561 innings, a little more than half a season. So over the course of a season Ellis would be 30-40 runs better than Kent, which equates to about 3-4 wins just on defense. Sign me up!

let's face facts mark ellis is not a ned colletti signing, he loves those "sexy" players that put up "sexy" numbers, and low average high walks and great defense ain't "sexy"

The Matt Kemp that everyone says is doing so lousy has an .811 OPS this month.

130 - low average high walks and great defense

Andruw Jones, anyone?

124
Zing!

133
That's a real site.

129 Yeah, it's about .75 runs.

There's no way Ellis is putting up a 48 +/- though, no one but Adam Everett does that.

132 ok, let me throw in no power.

136 - His 9 homeruns this year would be, what, 2nd on the Dodgers this year?

He hit 19 last year in Oakland.

136 plus future HOF'er is sexy

http://tinyurl.com/5agxtm

Gotta love Carlyle: Buddy Carlyle's opponents' batting average has improved each month, from .292 in April to .167 in May, .152 in June, and .111 so far in three July appearances.

Since April 23, the journeyman right-hander has posted a 0.78 ERA and .165 opponents' average in 14 games, allowing 13 hits and two runs in 23 innings, with 10 walks and 25 strikeouts.

He has a 1.38 ERA in 26 innings this season, a .178 opponents' average that includes .153 by righty hitters, and he's allowed just a .171 average with runners on and .152 (5-for-33) with runners in scoring position.

"Damn, we're going to have to move him up [in the bullpen]," Bobby Cox said yesterday, when I asked about Carlyle's recent work. "He's going right after [hitters]. He puts the ball right where he wants it. I preach that all the time, but some people don't get it. You've gotta locate."

137 i maybe wrong but i just can't picture ned signing mark ellis

135
Yeah, his last few years were lower but still great:

2007: +19 (4th)
2006: +13 (7th)
2005: not in top 10 (played 115g at 2B)
2004: DNP
2003: +23 (2nd)

Regardless, it is reported that the A's are already working on a contract extension with Ellis, so unlikely to happen.

141 2005 was +11.

127--->Alternatives in order of preference:

Trade the farm for Uggla.
Move LaRoche/Dewitt permanently to 2b base.
Move Nomar to 2nd.

I'm very leery of replacing Kent (on a team that already has no power), with a slap hitting middle infielder already on the wrong side of 30.

116. Errors also punish you for booting an easy groundball. They also punish you for throwing a ball away. They also punish you for dropping a fly ball or a ball thrown to you. I agree it's not a very good metric, but it's not worthless by any means. It's a subset of a better metric, just like batting average.
vr, Xei

Part of the appeal of signing Mark Ellis has got to be that he will be much cheaper than Orlando Hudson, or any of the SS on the market, and will end up with similar production to any of them.

144 The slap hitting middle infielder out OPS+ed Uggla last year. Ellis isn't a slap hitter despite what he looks like.

142 Yeah, I heard Billy Beane on the radio here this morning say he'd love to keep Mark Ellis and they will try to re-sign him. Of course that may mean nothing, and if they don't resign him before the season's end they will probably lose him. But Beane loves Ellis.

Beane also had a funny anecdote in that interview where he said that at first Chad Gaudin didn't realize he was only part of the trade package, that Rich Harden was the centerpiece, so when told what the A's were receiving back he said something like, "Wow, that's a good haul coming in for me."

How can Kemp come out as an average or slightly better than average CFer but a terrible RFer? CF is the harder position to play. Seems like a problem with either the metric or sample size. vr, Xei

Well, Ellis does have a bit more power than I though, but his batting line seems to be good/bad every other year.

The 19 homers last year were nice.

I think moving LaRoche permanently to 2nd base, would be better than giving any type of 3-4 yr committment to Ellis.

In 2010 &2011, Carlos Santana should be ready and able to play catcher, with Russ moving to 3rd (if LaRoche is at 2nd).

150 It's still good this year. He's walking more and hitting for the same power, just his .252 BABIP is keeping his average down.

131

Rumors of Kemps demise have been greatly exaggerated? I bet if he was on the Twins no one would know who he was still 2011 when he has a 30-30 season at the age of 26 and be considered a young talent.

147--Ellis SLG has gone up/down each year. He's not real consistent:

2002-->.394
2003-->.371
2005-->.477
2006-->.385
2007-->.441
2008-->.393

Dan Uggla:
2006-->.480
2007-->.479
2008-->.620

I wouldnt mind Ellis for maybe 2 seasons.
I just think Uggla's a much better player, and for 2010/2011--> it'd be better to have LaRoche/Martin/Santana at the 2b, 3b, C spot than having one of those spots filled by a PVL like Ellis.

149 Acknowledging the small sample sizes, additionally, close to 70% of Kemp's career innings in CF are this season, less than 30% of his RF innings are from this year. Does your eye say he's been generally improving as an OF over time?

155 - Don't want to start that discussion again at this point.

155 ah man i missed it

Tonight's starter for the Marlins, Josh Johnson, is making his 2008 debut. He was called up today with reliever Logan Kensing headed to AAA. Johnson has appeared with the Marlins in each of the last three seasons, and was one of four Marlins' rookies to win 10 games in 2006. He underwent Tommy John surgery last August. He had made 5 starts in the minors in the last month before today's callup.

Tomorrow's starter is 21-year old Chris Volstad, making his first major league start. He pitched 2 scoreless innings in relief on Sunday. He was the 16th pick in the 2005 draft.

Mark Ellis walk rate is higher this year too. 1 BB / 12.06 PA career (pretty consistent too), suddenly 1 / 8.42 this year. Not sure what that might mean, but if that's some sort of fluke, I start to worry more about offensive dropoff.

Rick Ankiel's story is rather amazing.

He's now hit 30Hrs since his call up last August.

466 Abs
30 HRs
.270/.330/.525 while playing great defense in CF.

Its rather amazing he's going to make a ton of money as a hitter than a pitcher.

ahh my patience has paid off with ryan howard in my fantasy league... another HR today.

161 When is he eligible for free agency?

157--I was joking...of course I don't want to start that discussion.

According to plus/minus, Rick Ankiel is the 31st-ranked CF in MLB, with a -8 in 658 innings.

Where does one look up +/- stats?

This is more for tomorrow night than tonight, put the Dodgers are 2-10 since 2001 facing starting pitchers in their first or second career game. Chris Volstad will be making his first career start Friday, in his 2nd MLB game.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/DGeE

Said newbie pitchers are 7-1 with a 4.43 ERA against the Dodgers over that span.

152

exactly. He hasn't even entered his prime years yet, I'll just sit back & watch him mature & say I told you sow later...

don't get me wrong I can see what they see also but they are judging him way to early in his career.

165--Thats one example why I dont believe in defensive metrics. I get to watch quite a few Cardinal games, and he's never messed up many plays and has prevented quite a few runners from taking an extra base with his arm.

166
www.billjamesonline.net. It's a subscription site ($9/quarter)

You can look up older data (mostly the best and worst) on www.fieldingbible.com.

169. Yes, defensive metrics need a lot of refining. The most respected metric is now behind closed doors as it's author now works for a major league team. Defensive metrics have come a long ways, but they still have a long journey ahead of them. vr, Xei

163--I think he's a free agent at the end of this season. He avoided arbiration last winer and signed a 1yr deal for 2008.

169
His arm rates as excellent. Only 49.2% of runners (32 in 65 opportunities) have advanced on him, good for 4th among MLB CF.

Isn't that kind of a funny reason to not believe in defensive stats? I mean, didn't Bill James used to say it's hard to tell the difference between a .275 & .300 hitter just by sight?

22 This relates to comments way back in the thread, but when Bob wrote about the Gibson HR in the context of Casey at the Bay, it reminded me of what I saw at the Hollywood Bowl last week. I am sure this was mentioned by someone last week, but they did 3 shows there to salute the Dodgers' 50th anniversary. One of the bits was a recording of Vin narrating a Casey at the Bat takeoff describing the Gibson HR. The odd part is that of course they called him "Gibby" to match Casey. The Philharmonic played behind the voiceover. I must say that the writing was pretty decent, especially considering how bad it might have been. Vinnie himself was there for at least the first part of the show. My 5 year old loved it, and even more when they had someone recite the Danny Kaye song with the Philharmonic doing the music.

169 ,173
Not that I disagree with you regarding skepticism of defensive statistics.

169 Obvious errors really aren't the problem, it's the balls he never gets close to that create the gaps.

+/- also doesn't factor in arm.

Ankiel only had 4 years, 33 days service time heading into this season. He won't be a FA until after next season.

another thing is the back ground of both players [Kemp & Encarnacion] is totally different, MK is just barely learning his craft...

165 i don't have bill james online, can you tell me where kinsler ranks among 2b?

This is a very good primer written by one of my favorite baseball bloggers that you might want to read if you are interested in learning about some of the defensive metrics being looked at.
http://friarforecast.com/?p=502
vr, Xei

179
Ian Kinsler:

Plus/Minus
2008: -7 (27th)
2007: +7 (9th)
2006: -4 (18th)

Double Plays
2008: 55.1% of opportunities (12th)
2007: 54.0% (10th)
2006: 56.2% (8th)

181 last one, than i'll leave you alone pedroia would be appreciated.

So does the club then have control of a player for 6 major league level yrs, no matter how long it takes for the player to accumulate those years?

I knew they had control after they draft a player: 3 seasons till they must put them on the mlb 40-man roster. Then another 3 years to get them on the 25-man roster or they become a minor league free agent right?

Conceivably could a club control a player for 12 years?

Draft at age 18
MLB 40-man roster at age 21
MLB 25-man active roster at age 24
6yrs of arbitration---> thru age 30.

Can that be right?

it looks pretty basic (perfect for me) easy to learn, here is a tid bit.

Revised zone rating (RZR) — This is simply: plays/BIZ. So if Khalil Greene has 300 balls hit into the shortstop zone and converts 250 of them into outs, his RZR is .833.

183 You can do one better because you can control him for 6.99 years.

184 That's zone rating. Revised zone rating also adds in plays out of your zone. So if you go 250/300 but you also get 20 balls in the third basemans zone it goes to 270/300.

Ethan Martin is BA's high school player of the year. He's on their front page right now and in case they change the page soon, this article is a nice read.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/high-school/awards/player-of-the-year/2008/266463.html

182
Dustin Pedroia:

Plus/Minus
2008: +11 (4th)
2007: -5 (21st)

Double Plays
2008: 47.2% (24th)
2007: 56.3% (4th)

188 ty

the only thing that concerns me about Kemp is his sight, IndianaJon said he had the lazer eye surgery done & it worked out great.

There's apparently a new rule that you aren't allowed to argue a call that has been reversed after the umpires have met on field to discuss it.

Marlins' manager Fredi Gonzalez was ejected Monday for violating said rule. Bud Black chimed in, saying, "but it makes sense. If they reversed a call, they aren't going to reverse it back again."

http://tinyurl.com/weirdrule

Mariners released Richie Sexson.

190 - Small sample size. It did nothing for Marty Feldman.

I'd rather have him on the bench than Berroa.

194
Marty Feldman or Richie Sexson?

Apparently the word is out on the Dodgers and how difficult they are to work with:

Sources say the Blue Jays have also zeroed in on the Los Angeles Dodgers, and have had people at games involving their Single-A Great Lakes Loons affiliate. But the Dodgers are the most difficult organization in baseball with which to strike a deal. The Phillies have also talked to the Dodgers about Derek Lowe's availability.

190 When was the laser surgery done?

195 Either one.

I think Berroa has a movable hump, too.

Whoa. Sexson has to be one of the bigger DFA's in recent times, no?

196
Where was that report from?

198
Russ Ortiz was owed more money when he was released by Arizona.

Sexson is in the final year of his contract and is making $14m this year, which means the Mariners will eat just about $6m by releasing him.

199. Sorry should have posted the link with the excerpt. At the bottom of this article:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080710.WBbaseball20080710130217/WBStory/WBbaseball/

191. Wasn't there a USC game a couple years ago, maybe it was someone else was playing, I can't remember for sure. But they had a review and over turned the call, then the other coach asked for a review and the over turned the over turned call. It delayed the game something like 25-30 minutes.
vr, Xei

Would you rather have Sexson or Sweeney holding down the bench? Sexson's cheaper...

200 I was thinking less financially then just name-wise. I guess it's kind of a subjective thing.

I'd take him as a backup 1st baseman/PH over Sweeney, that's for sure.

My guess would be that Sexson will end up w/ an AL team.

203. Neither. I like Young myself manning both sides of the plate.

202 you're right, i don't remember which game though.

203 Sexson, easily. A 90 OPS+ off the bench is probably an asset.

201 Meet http://tinyurl.com/ ;-)

202
I'm thinking USC-Oregon either 2007 or 2006, and the play in question was a sideline catch. But I don't remember for sure.

196 Would anyone here want to see Lowe dealt to the Phillies for Adrian Cardenas? He's their stud 2B prospect, although he's still a few years away from the show.

205
That was football though. USC challenged a call and it was upheld. Then Oregon challenged saying that the refs had missed a different call that would have rendered the first challenge moot. And Oregon prevailed and got a touchdown.

As Petros Papadakis said during the game, "What's Bellotti doing, going to the Court of Appeals?"

Tony Clark might be available as well, but he will cost a prospect (Denker-esque?) and has a $500k kicker if he's traded.

210. I think it was a TD pass that was deflected, but you're right I think it was USC-Oregon.
vr, Xei

197

MK has not had the procedure done, but I wish he did to be honest with you...

204
OK, I get you. Maybe Nomo when he was released by the Dodgers, the first time. I remember the LA Times headline, "Dodgers Outfox Nomo".

215
He could have the Flanders laser eye surgery, where his eyes eventually fall out. I don't want to wait ten years though.

Regarding Lowe, I think he'd be a hard guy for the Dodgers to give up. If they were out of the race, then absolutely they should try to deal him for a good haul. But he's really valuable, being so reliable and with some flux on the rest of their pitching staff. I guess if Penny (and/or Schmidt) came back and clearly healthy, and then they can bring in Kershaw, maybe they'd be open for offers if the return was bountiful. But Lowe's also always been a solid guy in the Fall, especially.

Maybe if Beane were the Dodgers GM he'd still deal him even with Dodgers in the race, but I'd be surprised otherwise.

fwiw, Matt Kemp has a higher K% than Sexson this year. vr, Xei

201-"But the Dodgers are the most difficult organization in baseball with which to strike a deal."

Andrew Friedman would disagree

No to Sexson because Torre will be tempted to start him 3 times a week at Loney's expense.

These people that are complaining that the Dodgers are the hardest team to deal with are the probably the same ones that are trying to fleece us. I'm not worried.
vr, Xei

From the Oregonian 11/13/2006

Then, after Leaf entered to provide some spark and drive the Ducks downfield, came another chapter in Oregon's bizarre instant replay saga of 2006. On 4th-and-goal from USC's 7-yard-line, Leaf dodged linebacker Keith Rivers and, while taking a shot from linebacker Dallas Sartz, threw a pass into the end zone, where it was tipped and caught by tailback Jonathan Stewart for an apparent touchdown.

After a review of about 10 minutes, the call was reversed. Officials ruled that Stewart illegally touched the ball, having stepped over the end line before making the catch, and the Ducks' lone touchdown came off the board. But then Oregon coach Mike Bellotti made what could be an unprecedented move: He challenged to review the review.

"The previous review is being challenged by the University of Oregon," announced referee Jack Wood.

Some 10 minutes later, Wood flipped on the microphone again:

"After further review, we have a reversal of the previously announced ruling."

IIRC, Bellotti challenged that the ball touched another player on the field before the receiver who caught the ball (and had indeed gone out of bounds in the end zone and reentered) touched it.

Glad to see Seattle's decision making has improved since Bavasi got canned:

Vidro: .214/.262/.315
Sexson: .218/.315/.381

The Giants/Mets game just got tied up at 3-3 after a two out, 2-run double from Randy Winn. There's been 10 walks and 10 strikeouts at the midpoint. vr, Xei

223

And Vidro is their starting DH batting 4th in the lineup.

233 I was going to say, but Sexson has speed, but after a quick baseball reference check, he doesn't. Do the Mariners have some prospect that they wanted to get playing time? I know they've been letting their catcher play a lot more lately over their pricey foreign catcher.

226. The Mariners traded away their best prospect for a good pitcher that currently has a sore arm. vr, Xei

I'd go Lowe and Pierre for Burrell. Burrell is perpetually undervalued in Philly (of course, for the same reasons as Colletti would undervalue him - low BA and Ks). Lowe is cheap, and Philly could help out by taking on most or all of Pierre's contract.

Pierre might even hit a HR or two in that Philly bandbox!

228 - The Phillies probably have to be thinking they could use help for their rotation, but that's a lot to ask of their offense.

I'd love to see it, and we'd still have this rotation:

Billingsley
Kuroda
Stults
Park
Penny/Kershaw/Kuo

181 , 188 If many players track like this (bouncing back and forth from top of league to bottom of league), the metric is probably garbage for measuring skill or predicting value.

228 The Phillies are desperate for pitching, but I don't think they're that desperate. They're not going to be taking on Juan Pierre's contract, and I doubt the Dodgers are really that interested in moving him (or Lowe, for that matter).

However, between Lowe, Penny, Stults, Kuo, and the various prospects, and the Phils' plethora of good hitters, they ought to make a good trading partner for the Dodgers.

Jayson Stark: The Dodgers' primary shopping mission continues to be to find a shortstop who could either supplant or complement Nomar Garciaparra until Rafael Furcal's status becomes clearer. Clubs we've surveyed say they've been less aggressive on that front than they've been portrayed, although they've checked in on a group that includes Jack Wilson, Juan Uribe and David Eckstein. It's possible they might just shop for a part-timer, along the lines of the Cubs' Ronny Cedeno.

http://tinyurl.com/5q3bb8

82 - Ellis isn't bound to improve that much. The guy has a 50% fly ball rate, and hits about 6% for homers. His LD rate is like 17%, so he's not really bound to see drastic gains. He should see some significant ones, though.

I see that Scioscia finally benched Matthews after a month-long slump. Still waiting for Torre's realization on DeWitt's skid.

.193/.244/.229 since June 6th (90 pa's)

These soccer scores we're winning with lately are convincing Torre to go with defense-first lineups. The team is batting .240/.328/.410 over this 7-2 start in July.

12 Jon Weisman
11 - I hate it too. Nothing personal against Jack.

13 Jon Weisman
I mean, I don't hate the call, but it's No. 2 in my book.

Glad you clarified your position. Otherwise someone might have had a conniption.

234
These soccer scores
I'm going to the game tonight and I just hope that the Dodgers can get a result tonight at home.

From the Keith Law chat today:

----------
Craig (PA): I know its not a scouting question, but what is wrong with the Dodgers front office? Is it just the GM that is dysfunctional or does it go all the way up to McCourt?

SportsNation Keith Law: I think there's a schism there between the scouting group that was there pre-Colletti (and largely pre-Depo) and acquired most of the good young players on the Dodgers now, and Colletti, who favors veterans and has no particular attachment to Kemp, Loney, Billingsley, etc.

236 Where are you sitting? I'll stop by and say hello. Then again, this might be your cue to say, "Oh, I'll be here and there..." :)

232 Ken Noe
Yeah, the Dodgers are in a predicament. Do you trade for a quality SS and give someone up or do you just get a sub to fill in?

238
Just look for the checkerboard!

237 This makes a lot of sense really. It shows that Colletti is just not a match for the Dodgers scouting dept, and the direction of the team. He needs to go.

Observations from Kemp's stats at Fangraphs:

1) Kemp's BABIP has dropped down, but his LD% has increased to a level that would support such an average.

2) Kemp is hitting fewer fly balls, but about the same percentage are going for home runs as in the previous year. His groundball percentage is largely unchanged, but his fly ball percentage is significantly lower than the year before. He's also not getting as many infield hits as 2007.

3) Kemp is striking out more, but he is also walking more. His BB/K is at .27 vs .24 for last year. Still not great, but showing improvement. His increased strikeouts do not correspond to swinging more, though, but at missing more pitches out of the zone (perhaps more terrible pitches). Kemp is seeing more pitches per plate appearance this year than last year, so that's not the problem.

232 - Ronny Cedeno seems like good candidate to me. His stock has fallen within the Cub organization but he is young enough to still have some value. If we could get him for Jon Meloan I would be pretty happy.

241 - it depends on the direction of the team. This is the one aspect of "baseball decisions" that the ownership has to be responsible for. Are you going to be a team that spends a ton of money in order to win now? Or are you going to be a team that builds from within in order to contend for an extended period of time? Or some combination of the two?

If it's choice 2, then Colleti is the wrong choice for the team. If it's choice 1, he's the right choice. If it's choice 3 (which is probably the right answer), then the organization has a whole needs to get on the same page about the philosophy.

230 The number is the most important thing there. Most players fall in the middle of the spectrum so going from -4 to +5 is going to shoot you up the rankings.

Cedeno would be great. He can play all over the infield and has the occasional great game at the plate.

Who knows anything about Cardenas from the Phils?...I've heard his name mentioned with the Dodgers a few times.

232
How is Hu doing in Las Vegas? Is the vision problem improving? If Hu can get his eyes working properly why do the Dodgers need to do anything at shortstop for the remainder of this season?

238
To be precise, bhsportsguy and I will both be in Section 1 of the Reserved.

It will be like an airplane as I will be sitting in a seat that is half the price of bhsportsguy's.

Sources say the Blue Jays have also zeroed in on the Los Angeles Dodgers, and have had people at games involving their Single-A Great Lakes Loons affiliate. But the Dodgers are the most difficult organization in baseball with which to strike a deal. The Phillies have also talked to the Dodgers about Derek Lowe's availability.

Lambo and Morris should be off limits. Any other player is probably attainable.

I would loveee to trade D-lowe to the Phillies for Cardenas and Dominic Brown but I can't see Coletti being that smart and the only way he will trade Lowe is if gets players back that will help the big league club this year.

I don't know about Cedeno's defense, but his hitting looks pretty Neifi like.

If you simplify to imagine that Richie Sexson hits a HR every 20AB and otherwise does nothing, and that Mark Sweeney literally does nothing, and that a PH HR wins a game you would otherwise lose, we can add 2 wins by picking up Sexson and leaving Sweeney to mull his post-baseball future.

237 Eric Stephen

The only problem with that is that Colletti has hung onto those players for the 3 yrs he's been there. Whereas DePodesta sounded more aggressive calling them trading chips.

I don't think Lambo and Morris (or, for that matter, any other player) should be off-limits as long as some team is willing to give us what they're worth.

253

In the context of the Blue Jays, I assumed the player of interest would be Eckstein. In that regard, Lambo and Morris should be off limits.

If the player of interest was Roy Halladay or Alex Rios well then...they can have Lambo and Morris and many more!

Provocative article on Kemp. Basically says he doesn't walk enough and hit for enough power to make up for his 30% K rate.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-matt-kemp-overrated/

Not that I wouldn't take Alex Rios, but isn't he basically the player people are fearing Matt Kemp will turn into?

NPUT

255 - Discussed at length earlier in this thread.

Re: Kemp -

Defense - Last year in right field Kemp looked like the was learning on the job. Not taking correct routes on fly balls and drifting on the ball rather than running to the spot. This is something that really irked me, because Kemp has so much natural athletic ability and talent.
Throughout ST this year it appeared as though Kemp was working on improving his outfield defense. From opening day on Kemp has been getting much better reads on balls hit to his area in the outfield. The numbers that are being cited bear this out.

On offense, from the beginning of the season much has ben made of Kemp mastering a new approach at the plate, focusing on Kemp taking the outside pitch the other way. This has resulted in Kemp getting up on his front foot which takes away from his power. Others have commented regarding this observation in the recent past. Has Kemp been striking out more because he has been thinking too much at the plate rather than reacting - in an effort to please his manager and coaches? On the home run that Kemp hit last night and on the low pitch that he elevated for the line drive up the middle last night Kemp was On Balance with his weight slightly Back on his right foot generating power. This also allows Kemp to wait on the ball a little bit longer and see the ball better, gets his hands to the ball faster and with more authority, keeps the bat on a more level plane thruogh the hitting zone. If you're short and quick to the ball on the backside, you can be longer in front. The only thing that matters is where the bat meets the ball.
Kemp will continue to learn and improve with more experience. As has been mentioned here earlier today - 24 months from now he will be a real monster, a grown up Bison.
There is a reason that every team wants him in trade. That is really the highest compliment to his talent.