The good news is that Dodger general manager Ned Colletti said he would look in-house both to fill Saito's status (Jonathan Broxton) and his roster spot. Since Saito himself was discovered on the cheap - as opposed to, say, Danys Baez and Lance Carter - this seems like a good lesson learned

It's weird that Ned has been either an Assistant GM or GM for over 11 years now, and not only didn't learn the lesson long ago, but apparently learned it after one failed transaction. Why hadn't he learned this before?

"We'll get together with Joe and come up with a plan. Obviously, it is not easy replacing someone like him. As far as trading for a closer, its a lot like trying to acquire a shortstop - it's a premium position and most teams don't carry an excess. We also have candidates within the staff."

I honestly am not sure he's learned that lesson yet. He'd go get Baez if he could.

"Many times closers are discovered in times like this."

Ned thinks that "closers" are a thing, a type of pitcher that exists out there in the pitcher population waiting to be discovered.

So sorry Sammy.

Sammy will be missed, but Brox should be a suitable replacement. I keep thinking that we should have kept Bradley and traded Kent instead. Nothing against Ethier he is a solid player and should only improve but I'd rather have Milton than Pierre and or Druw. Also didn't Ned ever see Druw before the signing, and if he did wasn't he concerned about Druws weight?

Also didn't Ned ever see Druw before the signing

I have gotten the impression that Ned doesn't know much about players on other teams. When "evaluating" players, he appears to rely on a combination of scouting reports and (not very meaningful) stats.

5 Bradley was a pr decision--and as much as I still like the guy, I thought it had to be done. We got lucky getting Ethier back.

6 And mostly scouts, a point he reiterated lately. Heck, we signed Berroa because a coach remebered him from three years ago.

One additional point: everyone, management included, has been talking for two years about Brox as the closer of the future. Well, the future is here. Why the need for huddling and "coming up with a plan," and the wistful wishes that a closer was on the market?

5 - I am guessing that Ned would have signed him anyway based on PVL (with HOF trajectory) prerogative to self-diagnose, though Druw's idea of eating himself back on to that particular trajectory seems a bit too convenient. My concern is how it has been handled since the signing, with Torre wheeling him out there every night until he gets injured (?), then Ned bringing him back up so quickly. Now Druw himself says that he needed more time at Vegas. If the PVL says he needed more time, how can you not send him back down now?

8 - I would guess that they need to decide who they are going to bring up to replace Saito. The best bet is to bring up Kershaw and move Park back to the bullpen to take over Kuo's longman spot. What we could use is another decent setup guy (replacing Falkenborg)for Broxton since Kuo won't be able to go on back-to-back days most times. I would hope that Meloan would be under consideration after his great season last year, another option may be Schmidt who probably won't be a reliable starter for the remainder of the season but might do ok on shorter stints out of the bullpen protected in the same manner as Kuo.

If Greg Miller is not an option (and he probably isnt since he's walked almost 1 guy per inning at Vegas), I'd recall Kershaw and put Park back in the pen.

Move Kuo to the 7th/8th inning.

Starters
Billingsley, Lowe, Kershaw, Kuroda, Stults.

Broxton has had chances at the closer role before and has always blown it. There is definitely a mental aspect to it that he let get the better of him.
Lifetime 8th inning OPS against .560
Lifetime 9th inning OPS against .745

That's in something like 133 IP and 35 IP respectively. I don't have the breakdown of which 9th inning situations were save situations, but anecdotally, I remember wincing a lot.

He has to "get it" one day if he intends to make a mark in this game (and if he intends to get paid a lot). Hopefully, now is his time.

This is for Eric Enders...

Berroa and Maza are both out of options. Maza was signed as a minor league FA, and had to have his contract purchased to join the big club. If he has to be sent down, he'll have to clear waivers like Terry Tiffee.

Berroa was out of options in 2007, but was designated for assignment in June, cleared waivers and was sent down. I would guess part of the reason Berroa cleared waivers in 2007 was because of his contract, but now the Royals are on the hook for that so he's a league minimum player to every other team (just like Maza).

I'd say there's a good chance both would clear waivers. And if they don't, Lucille II is healthy again and could take their spot on the 40-man eventually if needed.

For the record, from the last thread, I never thought Shimmin was funny. I always thought of him as a rather serious fellow.

Then again, I don't "get" most jokes.

At Sammy's age, this was bound to happen sooner or later. We really were on an extended honeymoon with him. Broxton has had "closer" written all over him for years, now's the time for him to step up. I really hope he grabs the ox by the horns here and takes over the closer role for the foreseeable future.

Perhaps Kuo can move into Brox's old role of 8th inning setup man. Everybody else's role can stay the same: Beimel, Wade, Borg. Now just find a 6th man to fill out the pen, which shouldn't be too hard, and there you go.

The NYT reports that both Drew and Longoria offered to pitch in the ASG if the game went longer. Kazmir would have only gone one more inning.

14
There are only a few subjects about which Andrew is serious, including (but not limited to):

1. WalMart
2. Smoking
3. Pleats

12
&Broxton has had chances at the closer role before and has always blown it.*

That's simply wrong. Of all of Broxton's blown saves, only one came in the 9th inning -- last July the day after DT Day -- and it was on an unearned run.

I'm sure the one wincing moment standing out in your mind is the 5-1 blown lead in San Diego last season. In that game, the first four Padres got on base, but one was an error on Nomar. Two of the other three batters were credited with singles, but they were clearly misplays -- one by Kent, the other by Nomar (he held the ball rather than flip to a covering Broxton for the easy out, after which I believe Enders called for Nomar's head on a plate). Obviously, Broxton gave up the runs, but he induced outs to 3 of the first 4 batters.

I'm as confident in Broxton as a closer as I was with Saito. He'll be fine.

If plan A and B and C does not work and the Dodgers are still in the playoff hunt, Lowe might become the closer.

Enders called for numerous pieces of Nomar to be served on a variety of serving dishes. I think he wanted Nomar's tonsils in a chafing dish.

19
I don't think the club would move their starter averaging the most IP/start -- and pitching very effectively as well -- to the closer role. Lowe might be plan G.

I've never bought into the reasoning that the Dodgers HAD to get rid of Bradley. It's a manager's job to handle and juggle personalities. In this day and age, it's probably their main responsibility.

It's not as if Bradley was out of line for getting ticked off at Kent for calling him out for a lack of hustle when Bradley had been noticeably limping for days (I remember one play in particular where Bradley was able to barely make it down the line in Florida). Kent's subsequent issues with Loney and Kemp point to a larger problem with Kent.

For all the headaches he supposedly caused, isn't throwing $81 mil at Pierre and Jones to replace him a bigger problem? Wouldn't it have been more cost effective and in everyone's best interests to hire someone who could handle Bradley's (and every player's) personality?

From last thread:

2. Thanks Paul DePodesta for giving the stupidest clause in the history of free agent contracts.

Unless your only intention is to defend Ned Colletti or current Dodger Mgmt (which might be the poster's intent), I'm not sure why its so difficult to understand how the opt-out was good for the Dodgers.

#1. The Dodgers got Drew for 2/22. How can anyone complain about this? An All-Star caliber player, in his prime, for that deal.

#2. Even if he opts out, the Dodgers have the option to re-sign him. They chose not to match the price.

The opt-out was put in place so Drew would sign for below market value.

I'd think every GM would want players to sign for below market value. That way, even if they leave, you still have payroll space to bring in an improvement.

The JD Drew thing, and even the Bradley, Ross, Werth, Navarro stuff...that only hurts bc of what Ned got in return for these players, or who he replaced them with.

Losing those players, in an of itself, wasnt necessarily bad. But when you replace them with Ethier, No One, No One, Gary Bennett, Juan Pierre/Luis Gonzalez---> its a tough pill to swallow.

You cant really blame the prior GM for that type of incompetance.

And who knows, maybe Ned didnt even want JD Drew around. He was a DePo player, and most could see the purge that was made when Ned took over.

Well, I always hate to disagree with Jon but I don't see what Ned Colletti said as learning a lesson, its more of a realistic statement on what is available right now.

I would think that if there was a relief pitcher in the marketplace, the Dodgers might look to see if they could acquire him.

The last two prominent Dodger "closers" were not pitchers groomed for the role, they both were just guys who happened be in the right place at the right time.

Will Broxton be that guy, it would seem like he has the tools and he did it in the minors so only time will tell.

Mad points for the Animals/Milton Bradley reference, Bob. You rule.

23
Shimmin's contract is fulfilled.

For all the headaches he supposedly caused, isn't throwing $81 mil at Pierre and Jones to replace him a bigger problem?

Not in the McCourts mind.

They're image conscious, and they probably feel better dumping $81 mils on non-performing assets like Pierre/Jones, than have to worry about the next time Milton Bradley calls Jason Reid at the LA Times an Uncle Tom (or whatever he called him at the end of that season), or gets thrown out of a game, or has some other negative PR moment.

To the McCourts, PR is more important than winning games. At least, it was back then.

Maybe they've come to realize that the Dodgers will draw fans no matter how many bad apples are on the field, and that fans will support winners that are bad apples, and still boo good guys that happen to be bad ball players.

Its troubling that the only thing that gets their attention is bad press.

If management makes a move for a closer when we have a perfect option in house that would be very, very, disappointing.

12 Remember how good Mark Hendrickson was for 35 innings last year?

2 I really think he learned from that. The only reliever he's paid more than two million since then is Beimel.

Yes, like mentioned a few days ago, Kershaw up, Park to long relief and Guo to the setup role is the common sense move. My guess is that we will see some combination of that. Torre is worried about Guo's availability on back to back days in the setup role. Probably Guo and Beimel split 8th inning setup duty. The Park and Kershaw moves are no brainers. Which means about a 50/50 chance. :)
vr, Xei

Broxton will come into the closer role and excel, there's almost no doubt in my mind. Other than the elite closers, there's no other relievers in baseball better than him.

23 As it was pointed out yesterday by one of the posters(?) here, Drew did not even pass his physical in Boston, and his shoulder could unravel at any moment. I do not see any reason to get all worked up about him not being here. He was not that welcome when he was here anyways...

Now Soria is who everyone should get worked up about. I never saw him before yesterday, and I was impressed.

26 Wasn't it in 16 ? Or do you have to say his whole name? I'll refer to the Boston RF as "He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named."

16 Would Andrew Freidman be okay with Kazmir playing third?

34
Longoria was playing DH at the time.

When Drew opted out, I thought, "Ha! that guy just cost himself millions! nobody will pay more than we are for such an injury risk."

Boston quickly proved me wrong.

When Druw became a free agent, I thought, "Ha! Some GM will be gullible enough to pay him $18 million a year."

Once a Dodger player throws an object--even in retaliation-- into the stands with the intent to injure a fan, that player is going to be traded or released during the off-season, if not before.

The Kent/Bradley thing was barely a minor contributing factor. On several occasions since 1958 Dodger players have had physical altercations without anything being done...

38
Didn't he throw an empty waterbottle (or was it full? or am I completely misremebering?)? Milton's crazy, but not crazy enough to think he'd caused damage with that.

I really hope Sammys loss doesn't force the over use of Kuo. This is the first useful MLB season for Kuo and its probably b/c of the way they are using him.... I think with respect Kuo if its working you cant afford to fix it/ or change it. He hasn't proven that he is able to pitch in a back to back (to back?) set up type roll. I like him 2-3 times/ week in close games for the 6th and 7th.... etc... I think Torre gets it….. hopefully he sticks to his plan.

Bradley threw an empty soda bottle at a couple fans who he thought had thrown the object at him. Being within 12 feet of them, he could have drilled one of them with it. Instead, he threw it at their feet. How many of us would have shown that kind of restraint?

I personally think anyone caught throwing something at a player when they are on the field of play and vulnerable should have the same done unto them by that player.

What makes it especially moronic was that someone threw something at a Dodger at Dodger Stadium. That being said, he was forgiven by McCourt and Tracy and said the issue was closed after it happened.

18 I remember two periods when Broxton was in the closer role, and both times he had a meltdown. I don't have the energy to scour the game records for 2006-2007.
The trick to being a closer, if you're already a good relief pitcher, is just keep doing what you're doing. I think Broxton has psyched himself out in the past.

38 41

We were there that night. Not to recap the whole story, but the fan threw the bottle into right field near Milton. He picked it up and went over to where he thought the bottle had come from, throwing it into the stands, but on a downward trajectory. As he did, various Dodgers hustled over there to head him off.

After they worked that out, Milton headed back across the field toward the dugout, showered by boos. As he reached the infield dirt, he ripped his uniform top off in protest. That's the moment that sticks most clearly.

When Drew opted out, I thought, "Awesome, that frees up some payroll" :(

38 I'd have fought that guy and spent the night in jail if I were in the vicinity, guaranteed. My hatred for that guy and Jeff Kent will never die.

41 Not to mention the douche got pointed out by the real, Milton Bradley supporting Dodger fans, and probably deserved to punched in the face very hard multiple times.

I was hoping for D4P. Oh well.

This is the anal umpire in me, but have MLB umps gone soft on the balk calls? Haren and Rivera both separated their hands last night after coming to the set position. On the strike em out throw em out play, I yelled balk at my tv before Rivera made the pitch. I know, I know...I still yell "back" at Dodger stadium when they try to pick off a runner.

If there was an issue with Bradley, it was health, not attitude. As I said on the day we traded him, Bradley for 100 games + RLOF for 62 is a lot better than what we were likely to end up with replacing him. That proved true.

That said, I do not think it is fair to look at Bradley today to see what we lost. Given his record, I am certainly not convinced he could do what he has done this year outside the DH. You need to factor in the loss of playing time and slight reduction in offensive stats Bradley would face playing everyday in CF. Keeping him would still have been the right move, but health should not be ignored when discussing the loss.

When a player like Bradley is out, it's a chain-reaction of consequences. Today's Dodgers are an example - Furcal is out, Nomar starts and you end up with Berroaza having key ABs in the late innings. Gaging by the comments, Furcal + RLSS is not a fun experience.

Dan Haren has never been called for a balk in his career.

49
I like the alternative dual title of Maoa for our light-hitting backup middle infielders.

49 We replaced him with a well below replacement level shortstop is the problem.

13 Maza had never been on a 40-man roster before this year, so he has options left.

Plus being consistently decent is much less maddening to watch than having someone carry the team for a month then replacing him with Angel Berroa. Even though it hasn't been fun to watch, our shortstops are still out VORPing Arizona's, and I'm sure several other teams as well.

I still think the regret over trading Bradley is a moot point. He would've been a free agent this past off-season, and given his significant injury history, was bound for the AL.

"As far as trading for a closer, its a lot like trying to acquire a shortstop - it's a premium position and most teams don't carry an excess."

Sounds like NedCo hasn't read chapter 6 in Joe Morgan's favorite book. Quick, trade for Billy Taylor!

55
I've tried the "moot point" gambit. It doesn't work. See "Ross, Cody."

Cody Ross is a Ballplayer.

57 - Somehow, I just never pictured Milton Bradley retiring a Dodger. The guy seems to have a habit of wearing out his welcome quickly. Even if they had held onto him then, I have a feeling he would've found himself off the team at some other point in the future.

Nah, for him that's just good PR. It's just like how "hitters with impact" are as hard to aquire as "ace nowdays". (I am not suggesting that getting SS or Aces or Hitters or Closers are easy) He constantly makes excuses and just yaps in cliches. To me he is planting the we can't get a SS seed. (which is fine with me)

I know he carries on and says we will look internally, but I wish, if I was a player my GM when asked about trading for a closer would just say absolutely not right now, we love our bullpen. Brox is gonna step in just fine. He's ready to roll.

or worse planting the look what I had to give up to get the all star SS Cristian Guzman seed.

60 - Watching George Sherrill last night, I couldn't help but picture him in a Dodger uniform shortly. He seems to fit the profile that Ned is looking for.

60 "Brox is gonna step in just fine. He's ready to roll."

I don't see why it should be so hard for Nedco to say just those words. It would give Brox and the team a little nod of confidence.

60 , 63 Good point. If only we had a GM that was good at communicating instead of such a stats nerd.

Today is the 77th birthday of former Dodger catcher Norm Sherry, brother and teammate of 1959 World Series MVP Larry Sherry.

63 - But they still lost a valuable arm out of the pen in Saito. Someone needs to replace him. Right now, I only have confidence in Kuo and Broxton. Torre is going to be tempted to ride those two real hard in the 2nd half.

Looking at available relievers, I'd say George Sherrill and Jon Rauch are the top targets. I don't think Brian Fuentes and Brian Wilson are likely to be acquired.

50

Interesting. Especially since he holds the ball "hovering" outside the glove. You would think some spastic muscle movement would cause at least one.

66 - Right now, I only have confidence in Kuo and Broxton ...and Beimel too.

Another effective reliever would be nice if we can pick one up on the cheap. I don't have a ton of faith in Kuo becoming the setup guy.

I can also see Ned playing the "I've been so unlucky with injuries" rationale when it comes to trying to keep his job.

69. Because of injury concerns?
vr, Xei

71 That, but mainly Torre not using him.

72. Ok, that part I agree with. I think it would be fair to split the setup duties between Guo and Beimel. Guo pitches on even days and Beimel pitches on days that Troy in West Virgina is out on bail.
vr, Xei

I forsee LaRoche + for Huston Street.

73
No idea if Troy has been sentenced yet, but an "outside the box" judge would make him shave is trademark sideburns.

75 Those are the real crimes.

74 That would be a tragedy.

Saw this picture from Sons of Steve Garvey. It looks like RuSS™ took some grounders at shortstop in warmups at Yankee Stadium.

http://tinyurl.com/5pn2sv

74 Like Bob Timmermann's mother says, "Expect the worst and when something good happens, you'll be pleasantly surprised." Or something.

This is a dumb question, but,

Why dont we just trade DeWitt instead of LaRoche? That would be the ultimate sell high trade. I can tell that LaRoche is surviving the last month without getting too injured.

I know I know... that's not what Ned does... but it would be a good idea. I think I already brought up the Lowe and Pierre for somebody trade two months ago (a potential stroke of genius!)

80 i don't think dewitt would have much value. but if you could get anything for him, it'd be nice to have laroche as the everyday 3B

Here's the question that really needs to be asked: what is the status of Schmidt and Penny?

Given the Bums' track record of late, is anyone else worried that one (or both) of those guys will be rushed back to fill Saito's roster spot, and thereby allowing Stults (or whoever) to go to the pen?

80 - neither DeWitt nor LaRoche are getting traded this year. One is going to be the 3B of the future and the other is the 2B of the future.

82 schmiidt is getting tatto'ed in vegas, i'm expecting a retirment sometime in the near future.

Schmidt is a moot point.

80 If any of those two are getting traded, it's LaRoche.

Paul Konerko's career path beckons for Andy.

74 Anyone got an extra pitchfork? Maybe a torch?

Phone rings-

GM-Mornin' Ned. Hope there's no hard feelings about that Matt Kemp trade we couldn't get together on last month.

Ned- Nah, we're gonna stick with him for awhile.

GM-Well that's OK cause I got a better idea. That Russ Martin guy looked really good last night. I have a great ex-All Star I can swap with you for him

Ned-Sorry. Russ is here to stay . Any other ideas?

GM-Man, you're really hard to deal with.

Tomorrow's Fox Website-
Ken Rosenthal-"Once again Ned Coletti shows he just can't pull the trigger".

86
Bob typically has the respective pitchfork and torch markets cornered.

84 Quality post.

Sometimes I get paranoid about the Dodgers making unnecessary trades, but man, some of you are really taking the cake today. We are not going to trade for a reliever. Every time Colletti has traded for a reliever our bullpen has looked a bit weak somewhere, but the truth is that Saito going down right now barely dents a bullpen that was about the most formidable in the game. Only trust Broxton and Kuo? Beimel has been fantastic, Wade has been great, Park has been huge this year and he is probably going to get squeezed back into bullpen duty by either Kershaw or Penny making imminent returns. If a team's worst two bullpen arms are Troncoso and Falkenborg, its standing in high cotton for sure, and I think Troncoso and Falkenborg's ERA's are bound to come down as their innings increase, because they have very good stuff and they strike guys out without being wild.

It doesn't take much to excel in the closer role as you usually get more then a one run cushion. However on this team with the struggling offense we have seen how close many of our games have been.

Broxton seems to be overrated to me by most here but he should be able to do the job. I am very surprised to see Andrew say he is the best relief pitcher in baseball outside of a few elite closers.

Even on my own team I'd rather see Kuo then Broxton in a key situation.

Lst night one of the NL's worst breaks came when Mclouth hustled out that bunt single. If he had settled for just moving the runner to second that inning, then the bat would not have been taken out of "the Golden God's" hands. Russell would have had a chance to hit with a runner on 2nd and one out and with Tejada behind him, it would have been unlikely they would have intentionally walked Russell. You knew Tejada would not get a chance to hit with an open base, not with the AS game goat Uggla up next. The NL played it too safe by that point. Francona finally in the 15th threw caution to the wind and disdained the bunt and eventually won. I would have loved the chance to let Russell swing away with 2 on and no one out. At least Russell got to showcase a natonal audience his skills and get some props-even from Yankee homer McCarver.

83 Schmidt has a year and a half left on his contract. No way he retires unless he's offered a front office job at $1 million a month.

90
Can't agree that we won't trade for a relief pitcher. You are probably right about the performances going forward of our current bullpen but that does not mean our GM shares your optimism. Wouldn't shock me at all to see Street wearing Dodger Blue at some point this year.

80

That would make too much sense.

91 -- What would an argument for Broxton being over-rated look like, I wonder?

Ever since Mike Cameron crushed that hanging slider last year, I've been sketched out by Broxton.

just curious, what happens when schmidt's 30 day rehab stint is up?

Sweeney's on his way
Sweeney's on his way
Sweeney's on his way with another K
And it's okay
Everything's okay

[If you can name that tune, mad respect . . .]

Anyway speaking of trades the Clips made an excellent deal. They give up nothing for Camby and in 2010 they will now have expiring contracts of Thomas, Mobley, and Camby, freeing up 23 million to join the teams making a run at the various studs who will be available.
We basically traded EB & CM for Baron and Camby and since we needed a point desperately I think we come out a head with Thornton ready to take all of Corey's minutes. Still plenty of cap space to bring in several more bodies. Make no mistake Camby is no Elton but on the other hand we are only tied up for two years instead of six so we don't have EB on the back end of a terrible contract.

98-He goes back to the DL with "shoulder fatigue".

100 - I could still see the Clippers making a move for one of the restricteds. At least, that's what I'd do if I was Elgin Baylor.

91 Out of the top 20 relivers in K/9 Broxton ranks:

16th in K/9
11th in BB/9
5th in HR/9

Out of the guys that lead him in multiple categories (including Kuo) that have any real track record of success are the elite guys. Is Mike Adams better than Broxton? Matt Thornton? Broxton has pitched at an elite level for two and a half years now, and only the Papelbons of the world can say that.

94 -- "Optimism" would only apply to Troncoso and Falkenborg. No GM trades for another team's closer because he is iffy about literally the last two arms in his bullpen. I think you have more doubts about Broxton than Colletti does, so no Street, and we have all the quality arms any team could need for set-up work. We don't like Collett -- fine. But some of the speculation about what he is going to do is tantamount to wondering if he is going to stick his tongue in any electical outlets around the office. It's just over-the-top in insulting him.

96
If I used BP's numbers it would be easy but I know longer pay for access since they refuse to join the 21st century and allow me to pay via paypal.

99 Pharcyde?

Broxton this year
40 appearances, most of them 1 inning (39 2/3 IP)

He gave up 0 hits or walks 15 times
1 hit or walk 12 times
2 hits and or walks 9 times
3 hits and or walks once
4 hits and or walks once
5 hits and or walks once
6 hits and or walks once

97
Cameron hit a HR off Broxton on July 24, 2006. Since then:

154 IP
2.69 ERA
1.16 WHIP
11.05 K/9
.221/.290/.313 opposing batting line.

Broxton has four blown saves on the season, all in May. He's appeared in 40 games this year, and has only been really bad in two of them:

May 11 vs. Houston: 0.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER
May 31 @ NY Mets: 0.1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB

He's only give up runs in 9 appearances, and only two since the start of June.

This is about as good a resume as you can hope for in a fill-in closer.

108 - And I know you're not "supposed" to do this, but take out that 1/3-inning, 6-hit, 6-earned performance against Houston earlier this year, and his numbers really look awesome.

98
Once Schmidt's 30 days are up, he can no longer pitch in rehab games but if he's not ready to come back he can throw bullpen sessions. He'd essentially just kind of float on the DL, doing side work until he's ready.

To be honest, I'm not that concerned -- yet -- with his numbers in Vegas. It's all about his pain or lack thereof after and in between starts at this point.

105 Broxton is 76th in WXRL.

100 - I especially like getting Camby (for 2 years) over a huge 5-6 year investment in Okafor.

110 -- Are you really not "supposed" to do it? Statisticians discount outliers, in the right circumstances. Broxton giving up 6 ER's in 0.1 IP was such a ridiculous statistical anomaly that I have no problem in just discounting it altogether in assessing Broxton's ability level.

108 I fully realize it's irrational. He's been lights out. I think I just hate when the Dodgers lose to the Padres more than anything.

If you're gonna drop Broxton's worst outing and then compare his numbers to those of other pitchers or some universal standard, you should drop other pitchers' worst outing as well.

114 You aren't supposed to because you wouldn't discount it if he got nickled and dimed for a run in six different appearances. Everyone has their bad outings so it evens out.

111 Did you read the recent articles about Schmidt that basically says he has pain all the time and he thinks he just has to live with it? Not encouraging.

118
That's way more discouraging than his performance in the rehab starts.

108
I like my elite relief pitchers to have an ERA < 2.00 and a WHIP < 1.10:)
His home rate is not very impressive to me for a guy throwing so few innings but maybe I expect more from a guy called one of the best relief pitchers in baseball.

Andrew you always say you weight the latest numbers the heaviest when looking at a player. In the last four months(Sept2007-June2008) of pitching, Broxton has been bad in two of them. Maybe he will reel off 3 straight elite months but until he does I'm a bit skeptical about your claim of him being the best relief pitcher outside of a few elite closers.

120 The perhiperals are still there so I'm not concerned.

117

Do you really think that discounting 1 outing in which he gave up 6 runs in .1 innings is the same thing as discounting 6 outings in which a reliver gave up 1 run?

I would rather have a guy who in 40 1-inning outings has 36 perfect innings but 4 times gives up ten runs than a guy who in 40 1-inning outings gives up 1 run each time.

That's a bit extreme but you get the idea and they have the same stats.

112
Yup, that is the stat I was referring to. I remember being shocked at where he placed in 2007 using that stat.

122 Same results in the end. Why does Broxton get credit for sucking really badly one day where a guy who gives up a walk and a couple ground ball singles doesn't?

120
In the 154 IP mentioned in 108 , Broxton has allowed 8 HR, or if we include Cameron's HR that's 9 HR in 154.1 IP. I'll take that.

At least he won't be giving up so many inherited runners since he should be starting out each inning with no one on base.

The Sporstmen's Lodge, where a young Bob Timmermann, received some high school award that he can't remember, is closing. The 63-year old Studio City restaurant lost its lease.

This is just subjective but I've thought that Broxton has the worse luck of any Dodger pitcher I've watched over the last year and a 1/2. Lots of bloops and weak groundballs that find the holes.

125

You presented it as 1 outing against 6 outings (not 1 against 1), which given the nature of the job of a setup man/closer would seem to make a big difference.

I just assumed Broxton would take over, and didn't give it a second thought.

Trading anything of value for a temporary closer for this season would really bother me.

131 - trading anything of value for a temporary close for any season would bother me.

just looked at the standings and noticed that both the white sox and the cubs sit atop their respective divisions. why do i have this feeling that an all-chicago world series would be a billion times worse than the all-new york one we saw a few years back? someone please tell me that one of those two teams is going to collapse, preferably both of them.

this is just an observation (IMO) but until Broxton starts hitting the corners & learns how to read batters I don't think he is ready, he'll be good but will he be great?

From Keith Law during his chat:

Q: If you're GM of the Dodgers what do you do about Furcal's situation? One year deal with incentives? or gamble on Hu?

Law: I'd gamble on Hu or DeJesus, who was pretty impressive on Sunday. DeJesus is Hu with a little more bat. Plus Hu has this recurring eye problem that is going to make any team reluctant to commit to him as the full-time SS

133 I doubt it... The halos will have a say on it.

133 Any World Series with the Yankees or Mets is a billion times worse than any other two teams. Both of them together was terrible cubed.

If we had a great offense, decent starting, and just needed somebody to lock down the ninth, I wouldn't mind trading a young piece for a closer. You have to try to win the World Series at some point.

But not this team, not now.

128 How unselfish of you. Personal accolades mean nothing to Bob Timmermann. It's all about furthering the knowledge of the masses with boring historical anecdotes. Now that's a Team Player.

Just for gits & shiggles, here are Broxton's 2008 numbers without the aforementioned Houston game:

2.06 ERA (213 ERA+)
1.067 WHIP
.197/.279/.307 opponents batting

137
Actually, the Dodgers would appear to have a pretty decent chance of winning the World Series this year, especially in relation to their record.

As we know, the most important step toward winning the WS involves making the playoffs. The Dodgers have a pretty good chance of that.

Once in the playoffs, the Dodgers would (barring injury) have a potent rotation involving Billingsley, Kuroda, and Lowe (each of whom have ERAs under 4) that could do some serious damage.

We are 13th in the NL in runs scored and 1st in ERA.
Why would we even think about trading for a pitcher and who are we going to give up? Nobody wants our overpriced vets and if we give up any of our younger players who can hit we drop to 15th in runs scored. Doesn't make any sense to me.

Interesting advertising on the side bar.

140
Holy Crap Batman that is the most optimistic statement I've ever seen emanating from North Carolina.

143
"Winning the World Series" and "Being a good team in an 'objective' sense" are separate dimensions.

143 I wasn't ready for that either. D4P has never been one to ignore offensive woes, either.

135

Wouldn't it make more sense to offer Furcal arbitration hope he accepts it for a year at about 10mil and bring up both Hu and DeJesus and see how they develop. If Furcal can have his games managed and doesn't get injured-two big if's he still is a bigger offensive threat than either Hu or DeJesus. Remember we will most likely have JP and Andru on the roster.

145 Ugh. Too many eithers!

Off to Pick Up Stix.

142 Do you plug that into your bat, or the back of your neck?

137 - at least the white sox recently won the world series and broke their "curse". I use to dread the idea of a red sox-cubs world series, still do but not as much now that the red sox have become just like every other team that has won in the last 20 years.

I took "something of value" to mean more than I think you meant. to me, "something of value" (still) implies a player that has an important role on the ML roster.

Oh, that interesting advertising!

148 I was talking about the one below that.

I appreciate all that Furcal has done with the Dodgers, but it's time for him to move on. I'd much rather take a gamble with Hu and/or DeJesus the first half of next year and see where we're at. Especially since, given Furcal's recent track record, that is where we'll be in the second half of next year.

wow, i should probably get to work at some point.

104 I'm with you Canuck, this discussion just reminded me why Bob said that the day after the All Star Game is the worst of the baseball season. Having Saito declared out at the same time doesn't help either. As the song goes...

"Too much time on my hands...
It's ticking away with my sanity."

I just appreciate the NedCo is willing to look at in house options first. Which he's also been doing for the SS conundrum (not counting Berroa, who stinks but was acquired for nothing as a temp stopgap when they assumed Furcal was coming back.)

Can't wait 'til Friday!

Over the past calender year (min 40 IPs) here is how Saito, Broxton and Guo all rank in all of major league baseball (for relief pitchers) in...
K/9, K/BB, HR/9
Saito, 15th, 13th, 13th
Broxton, 12th, 11th, 112th
Guo, 9th, 2nd, 10th

vr, Xei

If Ned is still GM, Orlando Cabrera will be our SS. Basically, a prototype acquisition.

I would absolutely offer Furcal arbitration. It's the best case scenario.

If he accepts
-Bring him back for one year at eight figures
-He'll build up his stats and hopefully get to Type A status

If he declines
-Furcal might be a Type B (too many games missed to keep up A status) so the Dodgers would at least get a supplemental pick for him.

147

I hope you get the cream cheese wontons

144
I understand, but winning a World Series with a bad team(1988) still feels better then losing the world series(74,77,78) with a great team.

157
Exactly, how could we not offer him arbitration? The biggest gain would be Furcal playing SS which is more important to me then any of the draft pick shenanigans. Having DeJesus and Hu spend one more year to percolate their games or step in when he gets hurt is plenty of insurance.

128
Wow, every bar mitzvah, wedding, and anniversary for the NoHoDodger family occurred at the Sportsman's Lodge.

I remember my father taking me there as a child to go fishing at the "lake". They still have the bait shop there, but its been long closed.

They'll probably put in an outdoor mall there and really screw up the intersection/neighborhood.

156 What's the difference between that and just resigning Furcal?

159
I don't disagree. My general point is that "not being a good team" doesn't prevent us from winning the WS.

163 It has for twenty years.

Being a good team with a foundation improves your chances for multiple good seasons with multiple crapshoot playoff appearances.

Unless you're the A's.

164
I'm not talking about "multiple good seasons": I'm just talking about one season, in which (despite a poor record) the Dodgers nevertheless have a decent chance of winning the WS.

Consider:

Despite the fact that there are 17 teams with better records than the Dodgers, PECOTA says that there are only 8 with a better chance of making the playoffs.

164 or the Giants.

I agree though... you don't have to be the best team, but you have to be at least close. Otherwise you are really asking for a whole lot of luck.

165 1988 was a fluke year that probably really hurt the organization in the long run.

Not that I'm saying I wish we hadn't won that year (so calm down, everybody). Backdooring a WS championship just isn't as appealing to me as having 5-7 sustainable quality years.

I'm sure I'm in the minority there.

165 The Dodgers are having a funny season... they're below .500, but if they win like 7 in a row, they'd have a 75% chance to make the playoffs.

If you told me I could have one championship over the next 10 years or five playoff appearances with a couple of 100 win seasons, I'd take the one championship.

1988 taught Dodgers fans that having one plucky grizzled veteran could lead the team to greatness.

When it proved that having a great staff and one ungodly ace is really the answer.

167
I'm not saying anything about whether I want the Dodgers to win the WS this year: I'm simply stating my opinion that their chances of doing so are good relative to their overall team quality.

"why do i have this feeling that an all-chicago world series would be a billion times worse than the all-new york one we saw a few years back?"

No idea. Why do you?

When it proved that having a great staff and one ungodly ace is really the answer

Thus my point about Billingsley, Kuroda, and Lowe.

What about the Cardinals of a couple of years ago? They really didn't seem like a "good team" for most of that season (except when playing the Dodgers). They certainly weren't expected to make the World Series, yet alone win it.

And this year's Dodger team seems like it has more talent than that team or their '88 team. But the '88 team had the magic of Kirk Gibson and the unhittable stuff of Orel Hershiser. And a few other clutch players.

I'm still depressed that our bottom of the 9th inspirational video at the Stadium is from 20 years ago.

172 I believe it's a comment partly on their insufferable fans, particularly the Cubs, and partly on the media overcoverage that will accompany the attempt by the Cubs to win their first WS in literally one century.

175 star wars music will never inspire anyone.

175 And we don't even have a billy goat or a betting scandal or a sale of Babe Ruth.

We're just non-descript long-term suck.

176 I for one could do without a Cubs Nation.

Let's not forget how un-fun it would be for the White Sox and their "Ozzieball" to win the WS.

178
Have we really? No rings but have we sucked? If we had sucked we would have had more chances at Clayton Kershaw draft picks.

181 Non descript long term mediocrity.

181 Considering market, payroll, and the Dodgers brand, yes, it's been suck.

No, we haven't been the Royals (twirls finger in whooptie-doo fashion).

I always wanted to know how to spell whooptie-doo.

I mean in the bang for the buck sense, TC.

It's also no baseball day and Metal Gear Solid 4 is taking forever to finish. So I'm a tad churlish. Sorry.

Interesting that JIm Callis still has faith in Hu, as do I, but it seems like so many are down on him even though he has a proven track record except for his eye-problem stint this year. He was pretty decent last year. But this from the chat today:

Jane (CA): Hu's bat, yea or nay?

Jim Callis: (2:39 PM ET ) Yea.

178 Be thankful you're not a Nats fan.

187 That's my next team when the Dodgers trade Matt Kemp.

Nats fever...I gots it!

It will be interesting to see (excuse the pun) how Hu does fare now that his eye issue is presumably fixed. It's hard to know how much that affected his batting when he was up earlier this season, but given how surprisingly awful he looked it seems like it had some effect, at least. Hopefully, he'll come back strong, give the Dodgers another in house option that trumps Berr-aza.

188 There's a spray for that now, clears it right up.

Using Rosenthal's logic, Mike Easler must hate Ron Cey. :)

From the Times:

>>>Easler didn't hide the way he felt about the Dodgers' young players, saying he hoped management kept the group intact.

"They need to, as much as possible," Easler said. "I know you've got to make a trade here and there. But if you keep these kids together, you'll have another Lopes, Russell, Garvey. You've got that in the making right now."<<<

184 it's WUPTYDO...our car license plate btw

after watching most of the game last night, my prediction is that Russell Martin opts for free agency and is a Yankee next season

188
Kemp for (Christian) Guzman. Book it.

Course, since Guzman is an All-Star™, we'll have to throw in LaRoche as well.

193
Ummm, you know Russ can't do that right? He's contractually obligated to the Dodgers through 2012.

188 Then you could move to the EC and listen to Don Sutton almost every night.

195 somehow, I suspect he's gone sooner than later

I am a bit surprised that Felipe Lopez is not on our team.

193 Are you seriously trying to bum us all out?

196 Been there, done that. Never again!

Atlantic Coast summers are not my idea of fun.

89 D4P may have been struggling a bit of late, but he's a veteran. You can always trust him to put up a professional post.

They sure were giddy over those pickups but seemed to think the tag wasn't very important.

After all those plays at the plate I started worrying that some AL guy was going to cream Russel just because they wanted the game to end. I felt back to how an Indian fan felt watching Fosse catch in an all-star game and then how they felt when they saw his crumpled body.

176 If not the Dodgers (and I'm not all that confident they can do it this year, really), then, sure, I think it would be nice for the Cubs to get it after exactly 100 years. Get that over with. I have no feelings one way or the other about the White Sox - they don't really exist for me. The "idea" of a one-city WS is sort of cool. I can't see it would make any practical difference to anyone outside of Chicago if the Cubs play the White Sox rather than, say, the Twins. Though it's more likely to be the Rays or Red Sox or Angels anyway.

BTW, did anybody get the game last night in HD?
I have a pretty good burn going right now for Rupert Murdoch and Fox Sports. SD is like watching a game through a screen.

And this year's Dodger team seems like it has more talent than that team or their '88 team.

I'm not quite sure why the 1988 Dodgers are seen as some miracle team, when in fact they werent.

Their regular season record was 94-67.
Their XWL was 91-70.
There were 48-36 in the 1st Half.
46-31 in the 2nd half.

203 Be an optimist. Dodgers-Angels.

201 PVP - Proven Veteran Poster.

201 Hilarious.

Cubs fans where I live are the worst. Since we don't have a major league team and the cubs are on WGN all the time, everybody here is a cubs fan, it's so annoying.

199 he just looked like he was eating it up on the big stage

D4P may have been struggling a bit of late, but he's a veteran. You can always trust him to put up a professional post.

If DT is the major leagues, then what would be considered AAA, AA, A, Rookie League posting?

Huh. Terry Tiffee and Mike Koplove, US Olympians.

Go figure.

184 I think it's actually whoopdidoo.

212 And to think, at one point I was upset that baseball was getting canned from the Olympics.

Speaking of trades, shortstops, etc.. I just want to throw out a name, but am not sure if he is available? Marco Scutaro (a utiliy player) with the Blue Jays, but currently batting lead-off. It appears that the Jays have several shortstops and Marco can play s.s., 3rd, and 2nd. He is 33 years old, lifetime avg. of .259 with a .347 obp. "If" Kent retires, "if" Furcal is not resigned,etc., you have some insurance with a journeyman player with decent stats, that can play several positions; and he likes batting lead-off. Just throwing his name out there for comments. Like I said he may not be available; not sure???

205 They were great that season, no doubt, but still when you look at their world series roster, especially on offense, it's still hard to imagine how they were as good as they were. But of course their pitching was mostly wonderful.

Interesting.

Dodger Team OPS+:

1988: 97
2008: 86

Dodger Team ERA+:

1988: 113
2008: 120

James Posey signed with the Hornets for 4 years and $25 mill.

I guess that means more Vlad, ugggh.

Just skimmed through the thread...

This was sort of pointed out already, but I just wanted to emphasize that 38 is complete nonsense. I always find it unfortunate when people who don't like Milton Bradley feel the need to make up stuff that didn't happen, in order to strengthen their case. Look, if you don't like Bradley, your case is already pretty strong. There are plenty of things you can say about him that are actually true. There's no need to make stuff up.

Milton Bradley has never thrown anything at anyone in his major league career. He threw a plastic bottle to the ground, perhaps as a way of intimidating someone who he thought threw it at him in the first place. But it's ludicrous to day he threw it at someone "with the intent to injure them." If you look at the footage his intent was clearly exactly the opposite -- to throw it away from the fans, so as to not injure them. Not that this makes it a good thing to do, of course. But let's tell it like it is.

I'd to give 18 a huzzah. I'm not really sure where the notion that Broxton can't handle the ninth inning comes from, other than the one game in San Diego where the left side of the infield decided to blow every play that came its way. In any case, it's bound to be a small sample size, and I would hope that we'd at least give him a fair chance to do the job before reaching the conclusion that he can't do it.

Also, Broxton's six-run inning against Houston should clearly be treated differently than if he gave up one run in each of six outings. For a reliever who pitches in close games, a six-run inning is FAR better than giving up six runs evenly distributed. You can only lose a game once. So the six runs cost the Dodgers only one game. Had they been six one-run innings instead, that could have cost the team, what, three games? Certainly more than one.

174 - didn't the Cardinals have the best record in the league until September that year? I seem to recall them rolling through the league and then nearly imploding and letting the Cubs catch them.

176 - yeah, that and four little letters: e.s.p.n.

170 - winning is part psychological, it's really not just about talent. Gibson provided the psychological edge the Dodgers needed to win 94 games during the regular season and beat two teams that were considered better in the playoffs. if it was all about talent, the Mets would have dominated the 80s.

I dont think Gibson made anyone else on the Dodgers perform better.

He certainly didn't help Davis any.

Brock, the Watchmen trailer debuts with the Dark Knight in little over a day.

106 Bingo

223 I know, I read a review of it on CHUD.

It's half the reason I'm going to see The Dark Knight.

Remember when Terry Gilliam was going to direct the Watchmen movie? Of course, I can only imagine the cost overruns on that. But it sure would've looked cool. Zack Snyder will make it look cool, too, but I feel like it will be less interesting.

But Billy Crudup as Dr Manhattan! And Jackie Earle Haley continues his comeback as Rorschach! Gotta be good.

215 Scutaro gets on base at best decently and has no glove. I don't know if he'd be better than Nomar.

205 The hitting was terrible and that was almost entirely managements fault for not trying to completely restructure the offense after finishing last in every offensive category. Gibson was a start, but we needed a complete overall, especially since the only guy that could hit, Pedro Guerrero, collpased. The miracle comes from guys that had done nothing the year before like Tim Belcher, Tim Leary and Jay Howell becoming all stars.

With Jon out of pocket a bit, I will link to a Variety article about how the spinoff of "The Office" will star Amy Poehler.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117989011.html?categoryid=1043&cs=1

226 The Paul Greengrass Watchmen would have been awesome.

I'm pretty sure the Snyder version is going to be amazing. All the video diaries have been great.

Darren Aranofsky and Paul Greengrass were once attached to direct, too. Wow. I think all of them should've made their own versions of it -- and then let the people decide!

uh-oh!
vr, Xei

102 100 - I could still see the Clippers making a move for one of the restricteds. At least, that's what I'd do if I was Elgin Baylor.

It doesn't appear they have that option anymore once they took on Camby's contract:

>> The Clippers had been exploring the possibility of extending an offer sheet to either Atlanta Hawks forward Josh Smith or Charlotte Bobcats center-forward Emeka Okafor, both restricted free agents. But Camby's contract, which leaves the Clippers only about $2 million below the salary cap, apparently eliminates those options. <<

http://tinyurl.com/5j8c33

This was too odd not to post here

http://tinyurl.com/5ugzhs

Although I don't think he would go for it, the Dodgers could trade for Greg Maddux and make him the closer. Hey, if Hoffman can close with his stuff, so can Maddux.

233. What is it? SFW??
vr, Xei

235
Safe, just horrible things people buy for their babies.

232 - soft cap, they can go over it if they really wanted to, they'd just have to pay a luxury tax. plus, they should have their mid-level exception left. and they could always move a few more pieces.

237 - But if they want to go get one of the Josh Smith-type restricteds they'll need to pony up about $13M per year, which translates to $23M with the luxury tax. That's probably a bit out of range for Sterling.

Mobley and Tim Thomas are their only trade chips left.

BTW, Kershaw is scheduled to pitch tomorrow so be on the lookout for his outing.

But since that would line up with the 5th game back from the ASB anyway, he could still pitch and have his 4 days off. If they want to wait, he could still pitch one more game in AA and make his turn in LA during the next homestand.

Happy Birthday to Phoebe Cates.

Also to the actress that was in the film that had this great line.

"I picked you for the job, not because I think you're so darn smart, but because I thought you were a shade less dumb than the rest of the outfit. Guess I was wrong. You're not smarter, Walter... you're just a little taller."

226 229 I have no idea what you're both talking about, but Gilliam and Greengrass are great directors.

204

Fox was in HD out here

Yeah, I have no idea what "The Watchmen" is, or are. I'm psyched about the Amy Poehler Office news.

243 The only graphic novel to make Time's 100 greatest works of fiction of the Twentieth Century.

Do yourself a favor and pick it up. I don't even like graphic novels, but it's amazing.

I'm against everything Batman.

If you're at a work picnic involving water ballons, make sure your coworker doesnt pour water down your pants if you don't have a change of clothes.

227. According to career stats: Nomar has a career fielding avg. of .974; Rafael has a .967 avg.; and Scutaro has a .979 avg.(this while serving mostly as a utility player).

So this is what a day without baseball feels like. Kinda empty. I wonder how Jon's in-laws are doing? :)

The first episode of Joss Whedon's new web series, "Dr Horrible's Sing a Long Blog" is now up online. Neil Patrick Harris as Dr Horrible and Nathan Fillion as his nemesis.

http://doctorhorrible.net/
http://drhorrible.com/act_I.html

248 This is the only day of the year with absolutely nothing going on in terms of major sports in the US at college or pro level. At least that's something I remember reading a few years back.

247 Fielding percentage means next to nothing since it punishes you for having range. Scutaro actually rates worse than Berroa in +/- over the last three years.

Joe Posnanski is reminiscing about old ballparks. I love this line about Cleveland Municipal Stadium:

I remember an infield that had more bad hops than Schlitz

244 Hey, have you read the "Y: The Last Man" graphic novel series? (By one of the writers for "Lost") Really fun stuff. Some of it gets silly but it's hard to put down. About a guy who survives a plague that seems to have killed off all the other men on earth. So it's just women, and him, and his monkey.

247
Fielding percentage only counts plays the fielders got to, and does not account for their range.

Completely hypothetical, but imagine two players with equal number of defensive innings:

Player A - 10 chances, 1 error, .900 FPct
Player B - 20 chances, 3 errors, .850 FPct

Player A has a higher fielding percentage, but Player B has the far superior range. Both should factor in when evaluating defense.

246
If you're at a work picnic involving water ballons, make sure your coworker doesnt pour water down your pants if you don't have a change of clothes

Words to live by.

248. I like how Jon scheduled his in-law visit during the All-Star break. I'm amazed at how much pull he has. :)

vr, Xei

255

Or always wear swim shorts to work BBQ's

257
Rubber shorts, no doubt

245 What about Superman?

I agree range factor is way better than fielding pct and errors, but let's keep in mind that range factor without measuring speed/trajectory of ball, defensive positioning has some big holes in it too.
vr, Xei

258 You know, that just sounds real uncomfortable.

I have NO idea how those blogads got there.

262
I would have not noticed that for a long time if you did not mention it.

It's official: We have no topic.

263 - Others mentioned them earlier.

264 I will give you a topic-

The Juice

I don't understand why it is a part of the toaster. All of the other members of the toaster display coherent writing on relevant topics with healthy discussion but The Juice seems to lack all three. How is it that the Juice came to be a part of the toaster?

Talk amongst yourselves.

265 The weird thing is that they switched position since first mentioned.

I haven't read "Y" yet, underdog. I've heard it's good.

Black Hole, The Dark Night Returns, The Killing Joke, and Watchmen are the only graphic novels I've ever read.

Gurnick picks the Dodgers. :-)

Dodgers midterm report

>> Fearless second-half prediction: The Dodgers will win the division with a losing record. <<

http://tinyurl.com/66xt45

A lot of good players on the All Star teams yesterday but there are always some good ones left off and fans voting isn't even a joke anymore. How about this as a means of putting the teams together? Just a thought, don't get too excited...

All Star Manager selects two players from each team; each team manager adds his choice of one player. Make some adjustment to make the teams even in size. More players get to go, nobody has to play too many innings.

Think about it for the Dodgers: Hurdle likely would have taken Martin and Billingsly or Saito (before injury); Who would Torre have picked? Probably Pierre or Kent since Pierre was out. A better choice would have been Biemel or Broxton.

Sounds just like Gurnick. Saying something positive with a negative spin.

251. I agree with you on the range factor, and I would also say that stats are misleading quite a bit of the time. I am not a stat guy. I am sure that Berroa & Maza are much cheaper than a Scutaro; but I bring his name up because of the void that he might fill with the uncertanties of injuries this year and with all of the free agency questions in the off-season. When ever Berroa or Maza (or both)and the pitcher are at the end of the line-up, the Dodgers have basically a 1,2,3, outs inning most of the time. Scutaro can lead-off, and could fill the void as a utility player, not only for this year, but possibly next depending on what happens in the off-season. Like I said he plays ss., 3rd, and 2nd.

270 That made me sad reading that to think that we didn't really deserve a third all star this year.

273 Man that was awesome English!!!

I still think the NL West champ will have a winning record because of the unbalanced schedule.

For a sub .500 team to win, the Dodgers and DBacks are going to have to break even with each other and then stink against everybody else. And then both of them would have to beat up on the bottom three of the division.

272
Marco Scutaro, leadoff hitter: .261/.347/.333
Juan Pierre, cause of all that's wrong in this world, last year: .291/.333/.353

Pierre at least has defensive and base running value to his credit. The only useful skill Scutaro has is taking a walk.

Gurnick flatly calls LaRoche a "utilityman."

I bet he gets a rise out of saying that. It's not even the truth considering he primarily plays 3rd.

277
Bah. Everyone knows Andy's a Pinch-hitting Specialist.

Journeyman infielder Andy LaRoche.

A few interesting numbers on Kemp the 1st number being Kemp's numbers the 2nd being the ML average.

Strikeout % of PA's that reach 2 Strikes* 53 % 35 %
On Base Average with 2 Strikes .222 .2712 Strike Miss % of Swings* 34 % 20 %

280 He certainly needs to get better. He's a guess hitter at this point.

He's 23 and mega talented, though, so I like to think he'll get better.

275 - I agree, the odds of the Dodgers or D'backs winning the division with a losing record are very slim. Both have way too many games left against the Giants, Padres, and Rockies for them to end up below 500. The Dodgers only have 24 games left outside the division, 10 of which are against the Pirates and Nats. The D'backs have 26 games outside the division, and they get to play Houston, Pittsburg, and the Reds a total of 9 times.

The winner of the NL West is going to have somewhere between 84 and 90 wins, I think.

Joe Thurston is leading off in the AAA All-Star Game and they just said he broke the record for AAA All-Star appearances or starts.

SportsClubStats has the Diamondbacks most likely win total right around 81 and the Dodgers between 80 and 81. DodgerSims has 80.2 for the Dodgers and 80.1 wins for the Diamondbacks. Over the past two months, the Dodgers haven't been that much better than the Rockies or Giants, so it's no gaurantee that they are going to beat up on the three teams below them in the NL West standings. With Saito and Furcal likely most if not the rest of the season, Andruw Jones playing full time, I don't see the Dodgers winning between 84 and 90 games, unless there is a major change in managing philosophy and or an impact trade. vr, Xei

Things to remember before the 2nd half begins:

1) Snakes have 7 games against the Cardinals in September (3 in AZ, 4 in STL). At the same time we will be hosting the Padres for six games in two separate series.

2) Dodgers have 6 games against the Nationals. At the same time the Snakes will be in S.F and in S.D.

3) The Dodgers still have 14 non-division road games left with Philadelphia, Washington, St. Louis and Pittsburgh. Plus home showdowns with Philadelphia and Milwaukee.

4) The Snakes however have only 7 non-division road games left in Houston and St. Louis. Plus, home showdowns with Chicago, Atlanta and Florida.

5) Snakes have 35 home game to 32 road games.

6) Dodgers have 33 home games and 34 road games.

But an important thing is to take care of business ourselves:

7) The Dodgers have 13 games vs. Arizona. 7 will be in L.A, 6 in AZ.

Sure hoping Mattingly will have a quick positive effect on our hitters. Also hoping he might have some good influence with Torre, get more intelligent decisions from him.

237
As I understand it, the MLE is gone as they had to renounce it to fit Camby in but the cap money is still there. I really like the move even better then signing Brand. Camby for nothing works for me.

If MLB had a cap like the NBA, Dodger Thoughts would be crazy time and it would be a lot more fun to follow the team if everyone had to play by the same rules.

285 I have a feeling that we're not going to enjoy the time when the D-Backs are facing the dreaded cards.

287 I don't like the NBA system because the trades are so restrictive. It makes it way too hard to rebuild.

When you can trade guys who have been retired for two years you can find ways around the restrictions, it just takes immense imagination and someone who really understands how it all works. I always find that part of the fun, matching up the salaries for trade talk. None of this Dunn for Repko talk, unless of course we give them back a 10Mill trade exception that they have to use in 12 months or lose it.

288 - actually, it's really easy to rebuild in the NBA. All you have to do is trade for a bunch of expiring contracts, like the Grizzlies did. Sustained ineptitude in the NBA has the same root cause as it does in baseball or any other sport - poor management, poor scouting, and poor use of available resources. And the system is built in a way that allows teams the best opportunity to keep the players they draft and/or already have.

290 I guess if I got used to it I'd like it more. I have a hard time accepting a system where Mike Hampton would be a valuable player.

291 He wouldn't be so much a valuable player as a valuable commodity.

290 - i wasn't a big fan of the soft cap when they went to it. but i like it better than what they have in the nfl.

i still maintain that a salary cap won't work in baseball because of the minor league system.

284 It's not that the D'backs and Dodgers each on their own are unlikely to finish below .500. It's that it's unlikely for both to happen, particularly since they play each other 13 more times.

294 Two .500ish teams playing 13 times against each other - seems like a good bet to split 7 and 6. I think if they didn't play each other anymore it would be MORE likely at least one would finish above .500.

276. You may not understand where I am coming from in my posts??? I am not talking about supplanting Scutaro for Pierre in the lead-off spot. The factors I previously mentioned.
You say: "PIERRE AT LEAST HAS DEFENSIVE and base running value to his credit." Are you joking as far as saying "Defensive" credit????

Looks like Lindblom is pitching for Great Lakes tonight, so far so good.

296 No, Pierre is an above average, possibily elite defender in left (2nd in baseball in RZR, small sample size though. Keep in mind Eric Byrnes went from a below average center fielder to an elite left fielder, it's a big step down). His arm doesn't mean nearly as much as people complain about.

You said Scutaro can leadoff, I was comparing him to the leadoff hitter we love to hate.

I guess you don't have to be able to judge fly balls or throw harder than a 10-year-old girl to be considered a possibly elite left fielder.

299 If you're really fast, nope. It's not like he has much competition.

294. I took remaining schedules into account in my sim analysis. And like #295 states, there's a good chance those 13 games are split along the lines of 7-6/6-7 (most likely 7-6 in LAD favor). It would be intersting to see what kind of odds Vegas would lay on the NL West champ winning less than 81 games. I bet it would be pretty close to 40/60, which is a pretty good shot.
vr, Xei

300

If that metric says he's better than Ethier then it is a worthless metric to me.

I know he's not going to get benched, but what are the chances Jones gets the A-Rod treatment and bats 8th?

And Keith Law just said a while ago he's sticking with Arizona to win the West, citing offensive holes at 3b, 2b, and CF for the Dodgers. Also said Arizona is more likely to make an offensive upgrade (LF, with Jackson back to first).

At what point does Ned acknowledge and try and fix these holes is my question. Over/under anyone?

For all the shakiness he displays judging fly balls, there are only, what, maybe two that have dropped that he should have gotten.

I can see how Pierre could be considered to have positive defensive value in left field. Just keep in mind that he's being compared to the Adam Dunns and Pat Burrells of the world. Of course he's going to be better than they are.

Still, that doesn't come close to justifying the decision to actually play him in left field.

298. Just curious. Why does Pierre's weak arm mean less than most people think? Is it because that weakness is masked more in LF than in CF? Would his speed then be of less importance in LF than CF, due to the smaller area he has to cover?
vr, Xei

303 Uh, December?

302 Like I said it's all small sample size so things still haven't settled out. Adam Dunn is still up there, for example. Last year Ethier was about the same as Pierre in left and better in right. +/- and RZR both thing Ethier is an elite corner outfielder.

History has shown that the jump from center to left defensively is huge. Just having Pierre's range is enough when you're only real competition is Byrnes and Crawford.

305 Because people act like it costs of tons of games and it doesn't. It cost us 7.5 runs last year, and logically it should be less in left.

303 I think Ned's essentially acknowledged the holes in the lineup, or most of them. What he hasn't acknowledged is that the best means of fixing all of them are already in house.

Fixing holes with in-house options doesn't win a GM accolades. Making blockbuster trades does. I think Ned is still convinced that the only option for fixing the holes is to acquire PVLs.

308

Yes, but like Xei says, logically his speed means less in LF, as well, so it's a wash to me.

310 But it's not. If Pierre is an elite defender out there, he'll make about 21 plays more than average. I can't translate that into runs but if he was just saving singles, it would translate to about 16 runs saved. This is compared to 5 above average in center.

His arm cost us 7.5 runs last year and even if he doesn't improve, he's still saving an additional 12 runs by moving to left and this is the low estimate.

310. I think the argument is that Pierre is considered an "elite" LFer because that's where all the other teams put their worst outfielder. What kills Pierre is when you start comparing his offense to the other LFers. vr, Xei

311. Great points, but shouldn't we be comparing Pierre's defense in LF to that of Ethier? I would think Pierre would have the speed edge and Ethier the arm edge, making it pretty close. He may be saving us X amount of runs over an Adam Dunn type, but he is only saving/costing us Y runs over Andre Ethier.
vr, Xei

At least this is a different type of Juan Pierre argument.

309 That's what I fear as well. I chose to omit the part where Keith Law said for whatever reason the Dodgers aren't giving LaRoche his shot and may look to move him to upgrade 3rd for the sake of my own sanity. But running away and hiding from that subject makes me crazier, so there's that.

313 True, but this is drifting further away from my point which was simply Pierre is a very good left fielder.

If Ethier played a full season in right last year he would have been about +30. I don't know if he could keep that up over a full season, but it would make him the best corner outfielder in baseball. Ethier and Pierre are both very, very good corner outfielders.

311 How does 21 singles translate into 16 runs? That seems... well... not right.

Okay, but if he has more value as a defensive LF than as a defensive CF, but even less value as an offensive LF than he did as an offensive CF (because LFs hit tons better than CFs league-wide), isn't he just the same worthless player?

I guess that was the point I needed to make. Again. I understand regfairfield's original point.

317
Single = ~.4 runs
Out = ~-.25 runs

Factor in double plays (which aren't relevant for outfielders admittedly) and the difference between a single and an out comes out to about .75

If you have noticed, just about every runner that has any speed at all or even half a chance of taking the next base on Pierre, does. Whether it is going from 1st to 2nd on a fly ball down the line, or more importantly a runner going from 3rd to home on a mediore flyball, speaks volumes to me. I know I would be testing his arm every time I got a chance.

318 Yes, once you bring offense into the equation his value is about the same.

Again, the point was just that Pierre is a very good defensive left fielder.

320 People did that last year, and it came out to 6.9 runs (I was looking at the rate version of the stat before). Check the Hardball Times for the math behind this.

NPUT

Regfairfield's just a Pierre-loving rabblerouser. Plain and simple.

320 " I know I would be testing his arm every time I got a chance"

Yes, but I believe that part of what regfairfield is saying is that runners simply don't get many such chances. The play doesn't come up that often.

112

Yeah, Broxton just doesn't do well under Baseball Prospectus metrics. They also have him at 95th in ARP (KGuo is 1st btw).

226 - having read The Watchmen, I feel compelled to watch the ensuing movie, though I admit the book's conclusion is fundamentally, morally revolting, an "ends justify the means" ethic used to excuse every kind of horror in history.

327
Unfortunately (for me), the rumor is they changed the ending to make it more happy, so maybe you will like the movie even more.