I was at Dodger Stadium for the 2006 game.

That's when I almost rumbled with the Cardinal fans sitting behind me.

Cooler heads prevailed.

Congrats Jon ... and thanks for the site.

6th Wedding Anniversary
Traditional Gifts: Candy or Iron
Modern Gifts: Wood

Hmmm .... Candy Maldonado?

LAT'ed:

At what point did Russ Martin become a below average defensive catcher?

I checked his Stolen Bases/CS'ing percentage, and his numbers are really bad.

49 SBs
13 CS's.

Its in the bottom half of the league average percentage wise, and only Brian McCann has given up more straight SBs (though his CS'ing percentage is higher).

Jason Kendall (who's actually caught more innings than Russ shockingly) is probably the favorite for the Gold Glove: He's thrown out 47% of base stealers. 28 SBs, 25 CS'ings.

Is this all on the Dodger pitchers?

Or is Russ overrated defensively?

I'm really wanting his bat at 2nd base, especially if Carlos Santana keeps up his pace. If the Dodgers want to keep Russ behind the plate bc of his bat, then thats fine. But his defense seems to have gotten worse since he's been in the big leagues.

At last year's July 21 game, Jonathan Broxton got a five-out save, using 18 pitches.

D Wright Strikeout Swinging
C Delgado Strikeout Swinging
R Castro Groundout: SS-1B (Weak SS)
M Anderson Bunt Popfly: P (Front of Home)
L Milledge Strikeout Swinging

Keep up your good work Jon

your site has revived my interest in the Dodgers and baseball

Congrats, Jon. You keep the fire burning.

And I think we can all agree: At least it's not 2005.

And I think we can all agree: At least it's not 2005

Yeah. Now we've got a real GM.

I have a question for any fantasy baseball players.

In our league you're allowed to have 75 pick-up's/ drop's for a season. One player in our leage ran out of moves so he can only make trades. Even since Saito went down I wanted to get another closer to replace him, I spoke with the guy who's out of moves about Hoffman. After a week of being unable to work out a trade he finally says, if I pick up Zimmerman he'd trade me Hoffman for Zimmerman. This is completely leagel per our league rules, however, it has ruffled some feathers with people in the leauge. I don't see it as a big deal, do you consider this unethical?

3

Looks like a fine 3B to me. It needs to happen.

From the 2002 game (during the stretch when they were unable to score runs, I believe):

Top of the 8th inning, Giants Batting, Behind 3-4, Giovanni Carrara facing 4-5-6
R Sanders Home Run (CF-RF)
R Aurilia Strikeout Looking
B Santiago Popfly: SS
R Martinez Popfly: 2B
Giants 4, Dodgers 4.

Top of the 9th, Giants Batting, Tied 4-4, Giovanni Carrara facing 8-9-1
Mike Kinkade replaces Hiram Bocachica playing 1B batting 4th
T Shinjo Groundout: 1B unassisted
J.T. Snow pinch hits for Russ Ortiz batting 9th
J Snow Walk
Kirk Rueter pinch runs for J.T. Snow batting 9th
T Goodwin Home Run; Rueter Scores
D Bell Lineout: RF
J Kent Groundout: 1B unassisted
Giants 6, Dodgers 4

Oh Gio Carrara, how I don't miss thee.

We were 12 games over .500 at this point last year? Wow. When you think about the differences between last year's team and this year's (Torre, etc.), it boggles the mind a little.

"A" in "NAPUT" for "Anniversary"? Not something I'll need to remember until next year this time?

8 To me, that doesn't sound unethical. I think it is a creative way to get what you need for your team.

Congrats to Jon and the rest of you guys and gals that make it happen. (Free KG16!)

11 But Ned said (rhymes, even!) he knew the team was playing a bit over its head last year.

IIRC the team had the best record in the majors at one point...but I don't think anyone would seriously claim the Dodgers ever were the best team.

Ned said (rhymes, even!) he knew the team was playing a bit over its head last year

A GM only says that if/when his/her team collapses.

14 what happened to KG16?

8 75 moves already in a season? That's a lot of moves. I wasn't aware ethics were involved in fantasy leagues, make the move.

17 - I wasn't around, but looking back at the thread it looks like there was a disagreement on balls and strikes, which ended up with him signing off. (I blame Sutton).

What a fantastic weekend of baseball. I gotta say that the two at bats by Kemp against Lyon were the epitome of what we don't want and what we do want. After Jones walked on Saturday and Lyon had been showing control issues, Matt hacked away on an high and in fastball. But, yesterdays at bat was fantastic. He is learning and he will only get better. I am such a sap because seeing Joe Torre pointing at Matt and clapping after the double made my heart swell.

Oh, and I am glad I still have my Ethier jersey.

8
If the rules allow it, make the move.

Being 10.5 games out in '03 and yet 4 games over .500 also looks strange compared to this year. But I'll take being in first place whatever the record over being 10.5 games out.

10
A baseball game won by Russ Ortiz with Tom Goodwin hitting the game-winning home run.

Oh that was a day of misery.

Interesting that 3 of the anniversary games have been against the Rockies, (03, 04, 08). I'm taking it as a good omen.

Happy Anniversary.

I ask this only because of how lethargic Jones looked in the outfield this weekend (I know about the flu). Was Jones hustling down the line on the botched double play? I know it was close no matter what, but it looked like he had sort of assumed the double play would happened, and he didn't quite run hard the whole way.

According to SportsClubStats, yesterday's win over Arizona boosted the Dodgers chances of making the playoffs by 5.9%. Today's game against the Rockies, doesn't have quite the same leverage, but coupled with the DBacks game against the Cubs, it very well could. Today's win leverage. vr, Xei
Dodgers WIN: +4.1%
Cubs WIN: 2.6%
Rockies WIN: -4.0%
DBacks WIN: -2.6%

25 - I may be remembering a different play, but I do remember him hustling down the line on a play to almost beat out a throw to first. Can't remember if it was that one or another. But he seemed to run pretty hard...

25 i believe he was hustling, the ball was hit hard and he almost beat it out so had to have been running hard.

28

Good point. I think my knee jerk is to always look at his playing with skeptical eyes.

23 No wonder Jon started a blog that day, that's the kind of pain you just have to share with others just to make sure you're not the only one that's feeling it. I guess misery is the ultimate source of inspiration.

I'm sure it's just another kooky rumor, but now the Dodgers are being linked with (meaning they're looking at) Toronto SS John McDonald, who I'm sure would be dirt cheap but with good reason. Why is he any better than whatever else they have? Jack Wilson would be too expensive but at least he has some merit. Anyway, it's probably just a silly rumor from Ken Rosenthal.

31 I think there is still concern about Nomar playing SS 4-5 days a week and they would probably feel better having Nomar and DeWitt switching off at 3B and having a good fielding SS batting 8th.

That would be my guess.

But it wouldn't cost LaRoche to make that move.

Do we REALY think Johnson is starting tomorrow and not Kershaw? I sort of assumed Johnson was called up for help out of the pen in AZ only (no point in calling Kershaw up to ride the bench for 3 days).

33 yes, i think johnson is starting.

Keith Law was on the radio this morning responding to the question of whether the Dodgers were "for real." He stated that he actually likes the Dodgers, and certainly their pitching, but he thought the lineup would be fine as well if they would just stop fooling around with the lineup and get the right people in there. That they need to stop this Blake Dewitt experiment and get Andy Laroche in the lineup every day to see what he can do.

Andy Laroche, Cause Celebre.

31 32 McDonald, at .190/.242/.207, is no more than a better fielding Berroa or an older Hu. I'm going to assume that this is a typically off-base Rosenthal report based on chatting with a peanut vendor at SkyDome.

And by the way, Jon you're the person who deserves thanks. Thanks.

I'm going to assume that this is a typically off-base Rosenthal report based on chatting with a peanut vendor at SkyDome.

That line is going to be tough to top today.

8: I don't think it's unethical at all. Don't Major League teams do this for waiver wire or rule 5 draft aquisitions?

32/36 - Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. McDonald is no better than Hu with the bat right now, and Hu is a great fielder - they could just call Hu up if that's all they need, no?

40 He's got the eyeball thing, plus McDonald would be useful next year. McDonald is good enough defensively that he's almost an average player and would be an improvement over what we have. If we can get him for a C prospect, we should jump on it.

If we go fishing for a SS from Toronto, how do we not come back with Eckstein? He's been benched and makes a good chunk of change; I would think Toronto lets him go cheaply enough.

Wow. I just looked through my blog archives for old July 21st entries and they're spectacularly awful:

July 21 2007 I had bronchitis and my server was down.
July 21 2006 I flew from LA to Boston to see my then-boyfriend and broke my toe on his exercise equipment. Then we broke up.
July 21 2005 I wrote: "Today I am so broken I could swallow a quarter and not even light up. I wish my forehead could vomit."

So, yah! July 21st!

42 They're probably about equally as valuable, since Eckstein can't really play short anymore, plus I think Ned is looking to next year.

On the Griddle last year on July 21:
1) Luis Vizcaino won both ends of a doubleheader
2) Willie Harris went 6 for 6
3) I whined about people in Brooklyn

In 2006
1) there was a Random Game Callback to 1994 (Yankees 11, Angels 7)
2) the Orioles recalled Fernando Tatis from the minors
3) Bill Mueller's knee was declared shot
4) I made my first Wandy Rodriguez joke and those are like gold, Jerry. Gold!

I didn't write for the Griddle until late in 2005.

44 - So apparently Eckstein is the old white guy version of DeJesus, and McDonald is the old white guy version of Hu?

46 Close enough.

If Eckstein were to become a Dodger, Plashcke would annointeth Ned's head with oil such that Ned's cup would runneth over.

McDonald is remarkably horrendous on offense, even by Ned's standards. I'm not buying it.

Today is going so well for me that I worry we'll make a horrendous trade only so that next year I have something to add to the list, like:

July 21 2008: Traded Matt Kemp and Andy LaRoche for David Eckstein and AJ Burnett.

50
Now that putative trade is of paranoid thinking that outdoes "The Parallax View."

50

I hope Jon deletes that comment. Uncool, Molly.

49 - He can really pick it though. +26 last year on +/-.

You're right though, given the stunning incompetence on offense out of the shortstop position, I'd be surprised to acquire another .160-hitting shortstop.

45 Whatever happened to the random game callbacks?

Happy birthday, Dodger Thoughts! And a heartfelt thanks to Jon for six great years.

54
I don't have access to enough old newspapers to do them.

And they took a LOT of time.

Not that this team needs pitching, but the team could do a lot worse than targeting AJ Burnett.

The price would probably be low, plus getting him would mean high draft picks.

Did anyone else notice this from Tony Jackson in the Daily News?

"I thought the best decision I could have made was to play for the Dodgers," Ozuna said, with Kenji Nimura translating. "Any ballplayer wants to be part of a winning team, and obviously, this team has a great chance to play in the playoffs."

So do Kenji Nimura and Dylan Hernandez have conversations in three different languages?

With Nomar PVL'ing it up nicely for the time being, I don't think Ned is going to go fishing for a SS. I could see him going after a 3B though, possibly (probably) even trading LaRoche for one.

57 when we have stults, park, johnson, etc. in the rotation and it seems like we're going to keep kershaw's IP low. Burnett doesn't sound all that bad.

Would Joe Torre advocate trading for a 3rd basemen though? He seems really enamored with Dewitt.

But then again, maybe Ned & Joe arent quite on the same page.

I say this, because Joe's comments about the Dodgers having no pinch hitters (even when Berroa was on the bench), was quite scathing.

Being that Kershaw hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 2 starts, I think he should get a shot this week. Unless they are worried about the confidence roller coaster (which he is already on) and how it could affect the rest of his season of course..

61
I've wondered about that too. Who (if either) is dissatisfied with the current 3B situation: Ned, Joe, or Ned&Joe...?

43 - Molly, you're the greatest :)

63 Joe is happy with Blake, unhappy with Andy. Ned is probably unhappy with both.

It really is remarkable how madly and deeply Torre has fallen in love with DeWitt. The Banterers warned us this would happen, but I just figured he'd resume his fling with Proctor.

Happy six years Jon. This site has enriched me greatly as a baseball fan. Thanks Jon, and everyone else who makes this site what it is.

Does Ned have any mechanism at his disposal to ensure that any newly-acquired 3B plays over DeWitt...?

61 63 I suspect what it really means is that they're both currently disappointed with DeWitt, downright opposed to LaRoche for some reason, and most of all determined to keep Nomar in the lineup at third or short.

65 - DeWitt probably prevents Ned from making a Casey Blake-sized move, but I don't think Torre would be upset about benching DeWitt for Adrian Beltre.

67 - Send him down.

Since Ned is Torre's boss, couldn't he just take DeWitt away from him if he really was unhappy?

Send him down

Yeah. Trade LaRoche and ship DeWitt back to the minors. That sounds likely.

68 Yeah, it seems that although DeWitt is not hitting, Laroche is not even considered an alternative for reasons unknown. It makes me wonder if Beltre will be coming back.

70 Ned is only Joe's boss on the organizational chart. In the real world, Joe is the alpha male, and Ned will assimilate or disappear.

Ned is Torre's de jure boss. Joe wears the de facto pants in the Dodger management.

I think Andy should get three starts in colorado then they can try to assess 3B...its just unfair, how many back to back starts has he had this season, if any?

51, 52- It's kind of like a Rule 9 violation: If it's spoken about while in the process of happening, it won't come true.

75 - So when he goes 3-for-12, what then?

70--Not if Joe has more pull with McCourt than Ned does.

I have to think that if the Dodgers make any trade, then all 3 will be discussing it, with Ned lowest on the decision making totem pole.

Sunday was the wedding anniversary of Jim McLennan of AZ Snakepit.

http://www.azsnakepit.com/2008/7/21/575543/diamondbacks-5-dodgers-6-t

78 What about White and Ng?

74
I bought some de facto pants once at the de facto Gap. They tried to interest me in a de jure pocket T, but I didn't want one.

58 Heard on Pre-game interview last Sunday with Steiner that he does speak all 3 languages...

77 then they probably tool around with it, I just think we've spent a lot of time grooming and preparing for this succeed as a Dodger third baseman, lets give him a few starts before shipping him off

I've given this a lot of thought, and I've come to the conclusion that Ned should quit. He's just not getting any respect, inside or outside the organization.

All Gap pants come from de factory in China.

Why is hard to understand what Torre said about the 3B situation this weekend. Torre or his coaching staff only saw Andy play in 9 games (22 PA) this spring before he went out with an injury. Blake DeWitt had 71 PA (3.5 times as many) and because of injuries, played every day, cementing the opinions of those who watched him.

There was a brief window when that could have changed in April when DeWitt was sent down for Nomar but that only lasted a day. By the time Andy was ready, DeWitt was in a midst of his hot streak and really the team was probably more concerned with SS and Penny's spot than 3B.

I doubt they'd veto any deal based on Logan's opinion. At least, I think McCourt/Torre both have veto powers in the trades that Ned brings them.

The problem is that you can't get a statistically relevant sample from a series, a week, or a month or games. There's no real correlation in stats for at least 200 plate apperances, and even then it's sketchy. Until then, you can't look at a player's numbers to evaluate him, you just have to go buy scouting. Maybe there's something wrong with Andy's swing that Torre/Ned notices and they don't want to start him for that reason. Even so, isn't it Mattingly's responsibility to fix him?

85 Nice. +1

83 sorry for the miffed wording, ive been up since 5:45 for an alma awards press conference at universal...I'm still a bit of a zombie

2006: Cardinals 2, Dodgers 0 (Dodgers 47-50, 3 1/2 games out)

47-50? My goodness, I thought that 2006 team was pretty good, and their record on this date was worse than our record today.

Personally I might argue that this year's team is just as good and possibly better, at least in pitching. Its a younger team this time around.

Happy 6th Anniversary Jon! Dodger baseball is enhanced with this site's presence.

84 - Isn't his contract up this off-season? I wouldn't be happy if I were in his position if any of this is true. As for McCourt, I wouldn't be super-excited to pay Colletti another million bucks a year for someone with all the pull of an assistant GM.

86
The part we're wondering about now is whether Torre actually likes DeWitt in an absolute sense (and wants him to remain the starting 3B for the rest of the season instead of replacing him via trade), or whether Torre just prefers DeWitt over LaRoche (and would be open to replacing DeWitt via trade).

Why is hard to understand what Torre said about the 3B situation this weekend. Torre or his coaching staff only saw Andy play in 9 games (22 PA) this spring before he went out with an injury

Because most managers should be able to formulate opinions on guys careers, not based on 9 games in spring training. Isnt that what scouting/stats are for--->to make up for not being able to see a player in person? If Torre is only making decisions based on what his eyes see, and not what players have done their entire careers--thats a problem.

But I really dont think he's doing that. If he was, then Andruw would have been benched a long time ago.

I just think he does have an irrational love for Dewitt. Why? Who knows?

86 And to me the crux of the argument that LaRoche had better numbers in the minors and should be given a shot, while true to me, is countered by the patience exhibited by Torre in keeping DeWitt in the lineup.

I mean, its hard for me to say, Joe, send him back down to the minors and give another rookie a shot because to me, it means Andy has to get off to hot start or else the team gets to move on again and I can't then say, well give Andy at least 200 PA to see what he can do. That just isn't going to happen at this part of the season when you have 60 odd games left and you are tied for first.

Garciaparra now has a 120 OPS+.

96 Small sample size!

Position changes are cool.

96 So what do we do if Nomar goes back to a low .800 OPS guy?

Nomar's a bit like Milton, except older. The issue with Nomar is not that he can't hit, but that he can't stay in the lineup.

(Plus, his age casts at least some degree of doubt on whether he can still hit, but not so much doubt that good hitting from him is a complete surprise).

I can't then say, well give Andy at least 200 PA to see what he can do. That just isn't going to happen at this part of the season when you have 60 odd games left and you are tied for first.

But what do the Dodgers have to lose?

Is LaRoche really going to put up a worse OPS than DeWitt's .680 or so? Dewitt already is doing horribly, why not go with the guy that might not suck?

100 I have been surprised at how good he's been hitting.

Because most managers should be able to formulate opinions on guys careers, not based on 9 games in spring training. Isnt that what scouting/stats are for--->to make up for not being able to see a player in person?

I am saying that Torre and his staff value what they have seen of DeWitt this year. They have given him a clean slate as far as his minor league record.

Andy LaRoche is going to have bide his time, whether or not it comes with the Dodgers remains to be seen. But at least, as far as I can tell, he is not doing anything to damage his standing with the club.

99--Keep him at SS, and re-sign him to a 1yr deal for 2009 as a stop gap to DeJesus.

I almost forgot how nice it is to get production out of SS. If Nomar can just hang in there with a 100 OPS+ until Furcal gets back, I'll be happy. About SS, at least.

102 - I'm more surprised that he's putting up very solid numbers defensively.

91 also tells me that everyone who puts down the NL West is doing so prematurely. I don't understand why everyone is so quick to bash the West just because nobody is above .500. Its not as if the season ends on July 21st. Obviously teams can improve and at the end of the year, the teams in the division might be just as good as other divisions.

The stat that carried the most weight was the .321 or something win pct against teams over .500. My defense is this:

The Padres and Rockies are REALLY bad this year, and perhaps the two of them are dragging down that record vs above .500 teams. Don't you think?

101 Is LaRoche really going to put up a worse OPS than DeWitt's .680 or so? Dewitt already is doing horribly, why not go with the guy that might not suck?

The difference is, Torre actually witnessed a period of time (about a month and a half) where DeWitt did not suck. Since it happened once, Torre believes that DeWitt can do it again.

He has never witnessed such a period of non-suckitude from LaRoche.

107 Not having a team over 500 is a valid reason to bash a division.

Just keep in mind that an .800 OPS shortstop with league worst defense isn't all that valuable. Ryan Theriot and his .400 on base is less productive than Clint Barmes.

I am saying that Torre and his staff value what they have seen of DeWitt this year.

If they want to dismiss DeWitt's minor league record, thats fine I buy that.

But why put so much value into DeWitt's line of .255/.322/.360.

Or, to parcel it month by month:
April (66Abs) .273/.342/.394
May (87Abs) .322/.379/.517
June (77Abs) .182/.238/.234
July (46Abs) .217/.294/.217

Do they really believe LaRoche will do worse than Dewitt has done the last two months?

Or do they think Dewitt's going to break out of his long slump?

Who I didn't realize was slugging .505.

Just keep in mind that an .800 OPS shortstop with league worst defense isn't all that valuable

It is if you dont believe in defense, or believe defense metrics are all garbage ;)

If Torre has an irrational love for DeWitt, wouldn't we almost have to not know why?

Or else we wouldn't be thinking rationally.

107--Dodgers are 16-23 vs teams .500 and above. Thats a .410 winning percentage, so not quite as low as the .321 figure.

114
Let's say we find out that Torre loves DeWitt because he thinks DeWitt is a good run-producer.

Is that "rational" or "irrational"...?

bring realistic, all I think we can really hope for by the trade deadline is a consistent lineup

I'm just ready to end all this back and forth around 3B, outfield, SS...the only thing that scares me is that I predict pierre, druw, and dewitt will all be in our "set lineup for the back half"

115

That was for the NL west as a whole. SC reported the entire division is .300 something versus above .500 teams.

I think they look at DeWitt's month of May and see great potential. Andy's hit yesterday could lead to more playing time.

Question: What is more impressive? When a player not considered an elite prospect does a solid job or more than what's expected? Or when an elite prospect puts up around the same numbers? Remember DeWitt in the beginning was just expected not to screw things up. He exceeded expectations before he's fallen on hard times offensively.

If DeWitt has an OPS of .700 is it better than LaRoche OPS'ing .700?

It wasn't so long ago that Torre was talking about DeWitt or LaRoche at second. I've seen nothing (except maybe DeJesus to second in the minors) that makes me think that's no longer on their minds.

111 I'm starting to think that Torre, et. al. are viewing LaRoche throught the same "injury susceptible" goggles that they use on Nomar. Maybe his back injuries are of concern, and they're just going with the proven "healthier" guy.

10 more days to go

Here's a note about Japanese free agents after this season (via MLBTraderumors):
http://tinyurl.com/6r69k6

(link there to an extended list of players)

And, no, Yu Darvish isn't one of them.

120 laroche bobbled a throw at 2nd on a double play ball against col, since than he hasn't been a thought there.

Re: Pierre and Jones. After this weekend, Torre can't bench Kemp or Ethier. Can he? Are they really going to platoon those guys for someone having one of the Worst Offensive Seasons In Baseball History™?

I'd love to see LaRoche get at least one start in Colorado. Wednesday, with the lefty Rusch on the mound, would seem to be the prime opportunity, but Torre has been playing favorites so blindly lately, that Andy hasn't even been getting in against the LHPs.

125

Im hoping Torre fell in love with the speedy pinch runner idea yesterday. It seems like such a great fit.

119--> I think they may believe Dewitt really does have more natural talent bc Dewitt was a 1st round bonus baby, and LaRoche was taken in like the 39th round (granted they paid above slot to get him, but he wasnt the 1st round draft pick that Dewitt was).

With your question--> I think a guy exceeding expectations and then falling back to earth should worry the club more bc it would seem pitchers may be figuring out a flash in the pan.

With the higher ceiling guy---> clubs are more apt to be patient.

The thing is, Dodger Mgmt may see Dewitt as having a higher ceiling bc of his draft status, tools, looks like a ballplayer, etc.

Happy Birthday, Dodger Thoughts. Thank you Jon, and thank you all regular commenters, past and present. Even the obnoxious ones we don't hear from anymore -- they inspired me to great feats of high dudgeon. But mostly, this place keeps me informed and makes me laugh.

I missed the whole weekend, had to follow it via my Treo and the odd inning by radio. I was in Cambria with my entire family. Had to drive my parents up there with my father in a semi-delusional state. Go to breakfast to find out my niece was running around with pinworm. Listening to the game on the long drive home allegedly made my wife carsick, so I had to turn it off and missed the big comeback inning.

The MLB on Fox play by play had me totally confused. Who is J. Johnson? Who is P. Ozuna? Did Ned finally trade LaRoche for the proverbial bag of balls? Relieved to learn it was not so. I did hear the postgame show Sunday, listened to Rick Monday try to explain how the Dodgers are different now because they're finally "playing with emotion." A concept I just don't get. How can he tell? Weren't they playing with emotion before? I saw lots of smiles and frowns during the first half. When a team wins, all of a sudden the religious mumbo-jumbo takes over.

Also missed the rapid-fire posting by Jon, so I couldn't comment on any of the provocative issues he raised, but on the LaRoche/DeWitt stuff: I'm glad that Torre will at least admit he's playing DeWitt for reasons that don't make sense and can't be justified. Meaning, he'll snap out of it soon. Tracy would've stubbornly defended himself, citing arm angles or something. Torre is disarming at least.

Is there any reasonable explanation other than "bad luck" for why LaRoche's batting average has been so low in the majors...?

I'm glad that Torre will at least admit he's playing DeWitt for reasons that don't make sense and can't be justified. Meaning, he'll snap out of it soon. Tracy would've stubbornly defended himself, citing arm angles or something. Torre is disarming at least

Given that your manager is stupid, I guess it's a good thing that he admits it.

But we shouldn't have to take it as given that our manager has to be stupid, especially when we're willing to pay $4 million a year.

125 I expect an immediate return to the "four outfielders"--JP's gotta play, you know, and Jones needs time to work out the kinks. But as the race tightens, I think Jones will have more and more flu-like symptoms.

Based on their current records against teams above and below .500, Arizona would win 83 games and the Dodgers 81. Of course since they still play each other 10 more times, that could change.

Also, all of Arizona's numbers against below .500 teams came basically in the first month of the season when they finished 12 games above .500 against those teams.

Since then, they are 12-13 against those teams. They have an even worst record against the above .500 teams than the Dodgers.

RIP Jerome Holtzman.

Anyone thinks that since Kent and Nomar didn't get the day off yesterday due to importance of the game, that Kent might get his day off today and LaRoche starts at 2B against a righty after his big hit yesterday? If so, he may very well get 2 starts in Colorado with Rusch going in the series as well.

My boy Brees gets some help. Shockey traded to NO

Good for the NYG to get rid of that headache, too. Did they get anything decent for him in exchange?

If anyone else is going to start at second tonight, it would likely be Ozuna.

131 we're willing to pay $4 million a year

McCourt was buying the brand name. It's like when I buy Advil instead of the private label store brand that is the exact same thing. Some people think Advil fixes your headache faster. Some people think a World Series manager wins more games.

137 2nd and 5th round pick i believe.

138 i agree 100%, you just spent money on him so they'll feel compelled to use him ASAP

134
No one can save him now.

Happy Birthday, Dodger Thoughts! Congratulations Jon on all your hard work. I hope it pays off for you, literally and figuratively.

Not only has this site provided many, many hours of enjoyment for me over the years, but it has also allowed me to meet some new friends.

it has also allowed me to meet some new friends

Not to mention Molly...

Jeff Kent is 2 for 19 lifetime vs. Kip Wells with a HR. He could definitely take today's game off.

131 I'm surprised there's any bits of that dead horse left to beat.

So Torre's been called a "moron" and "stupid" over the last few weeks. Is this going to pass for productive discussion about him? I guess for me, I said at the beginning of the season and I'll say it now, I was willing to give him a bit of a pass until halfway into the season at least. He's overpriced but I'd still take him over Joe Girardi. He's made some dumb moves, I've disagreed with some of his line-ups (and am on record as being with most of you on the DeWitt Question), and once in awhile with his bullpen maneuvers, but I don't know...either people need a perspective check, a reminder about who the Dodgers managers have been before him over the past 20+ years, or what -- criticize him all you want, but I'd love to keep that a perspective-based, productive conversation that doesn't go around in circles.

128

119--> I think they may believe Dewitt really does have more natural talent bc Dewitt was a 1st round bonus baby, and LaRoche was taken in like the 39th round (granted they paid above slot to get him, but he wasnt the 1st round draft pick that Dewitt was).

No, I don't believe that at all. Their bonuses were roughly the same; Andy was seen as a first round talent.

Also, The reason Dewitt moved to 2b in the minors for a year was because Dodgers personnel had Laroche has the higher rated 3b and saw him as a staple at 3b in the major league level for a long time.

This essentially a case of Dodgers management/coaches differentiating in opinion with Dodger player personnel and development.

Do you work hard? When was your last vacation? For a limited time, Thrill-shares Development Team is offering people like YOU a chance to get your piece of the American dream--a vacation home. Why give your money to Motel 6 (which, by the way, is owned by foreigners), when you could have a place of your very own?

Operators are standing by right now to take your call. Because you deserve it.

Oops, I forgot, the LaRoche/DeWitt thread is a few posts down. My bad.

148
You're good at that. Almost too good...

Since we're promoting things that are OT here for the moment, I should mention some good news. I got us to reopen that special secret DT promotion I'd created for DT readers to try out GreenCine for DVD rent by mail. So if you're interested, the promo code is again "dodgerthoughts" and the reg page is here:
https://www.greencine.com/registration?1=1
or www.greencine.com just to poke around. can email me with questions at craig at greencine dot com

It will expire Aug 23. Limited time only. Offer not good in any stores. Even DBacks fans are welcome to apply!

ad off

Hey, this is kind of early, but Xei, or anyone, should we do a DT football fantasy league again this year? I promise to stink as bad as I usually do.

Isn't Ozuna a 3rd baseman?

123

The Dodgers should make a run at Uehara. Even better if they can use him as a reliever.

Lambo hit his 13th homerun today.

For the season he's at 358ABs 293/350/486 31bb 85k 41XBHs

Adjusting to full season has hurt his pate discipline this year but he definitely has it in him and I think that will improve next year. The league he plays in really masks his power numbers. If you translate it over to the SAL, his SLG would be well over .500

Aha! I knew it!

July 21 2008 will forever be known as the day I got a check from the IRS for $600, and then had to turn around and give it back to the IRS.

152 The Dodgers should make a run at Uehara. Even better if they can use him as a reliever.

And if that doesn't work, chief communications officer and lieutenant on the bridge.

/Trek nerdery, OFF

154
Native American givers...

156 I'm sure they spent the money well, though!

154 Next year, you should just stay in bed and read DT.

Matt Kemp, batting 1st...

74PAs 299/365/478 6SB 2CS

Take that Plashke!

Lambo will put up incredible numbers in the CAL league next year.

Who's Lambo?

And Plashke will take credit because he's obviously been running the Dodgers for the last decade.

Ethier:

ISOp 2006: 169
ISOp 2007: 168
ISOp 2008: 181

He has changed his swing this year. The last couple of years, he would swing through the zone and keep both hands on the bat in his follow through. This year, he is releasing the top hand, getting more extension on the finish and in theory, should generate more power.

I wonder if this was his doing or the coaching staff's.

161

Andrew Lambo. 4th rounder in our 2007 draft. He's a pretty good hitter.

Is it too late for Lambo to move up to the Cal league this season?

One thing I know for sure, Jacksonville's relatively weak offense/line-up at the moment should be greatly improved next season.

150. Yeah, I can setup a standard 12 team league. Will probably wait closer til pre-season starts, to set it up.
vr, Xei

164
Why, other then Santana who do expect to make a big difference for the Suns in 2009? Josh Bell?

151 Isn't Ozuna a 3rd baseman?

Yes, but he is also a

2). Shortstop
3). 2nd baseman
4). 1st baseman
5). Left fielder
6). Center fielder
7). Right fielder

He doesn't pitch or catch though.

What has happened to Heath Bell? Whatever it is, make sure that Broxton doesn't catch it.

166

Do you think they should keep Gallagher in the CAL league next year or bump him up to AA?

I ran some preliminary simulations on the upcoming series vs the Rockies. The over/under for the series came out right around 29.5 runs. Most winnable games will be the last and first (Note: DeWitt, Jones and Nomar started in all three sims). vr, Xei
Stults vs Wells, Col 55.40%, 9.88 runs
Johnson vs Jimenez, Col 60.46%, 9.72 runs
Kuroda vs Rusch, Col 52.53%, 9.93 runs

Don't forget - Kyle Russell in the CAL league next year. 30+ HRs?

168 Looks like he got a case of middle reliever syndrom.

166 - Is it too fast to think Lambo and Kyle Russell would appear there in 2nd half next year or is it more likely 2010? I was thinking maybe Austin Gallagher, too.

--

Hey former Dodger Rudy Law will be at the 66ers game today!

Kyle Russell is getting blown away by rookie league pitching at age 22, let's not get carried away just yet.

155

I would bet that Uehara would perform just as good or even better Saito's last 2 years with the Dodgers.

But he probably would want to be a starter, whereas he could be somewhat effective, but not as dominating as he would be if he stays as a reliever.

After a shaky start, Michael Watt has really put it together, his last two starts have been ace.

Xei, how close was your o/u for the AZ series?

174 1.018 OPS

Only problem would be high strikeouts.

178 That's a really, really big problem. If he can't recognize pitches at this level, he's going to be in trouble moving forward.

177. I believe the simulator had it around 26.2 runs and it turned out to be 30 runs scored. I believe the conversation started when someone guessed something like 19 total runs being scored in the AZ series.
vr, Xei

179

I think its an Adam Dunn problem where he can recognize pitches, but he can't them because he has holes in his swing.

Blown away?

.309/.422/.596

18bbs
31Ks
13 XBH

Its not that bad of problem.
Power hitters, and guys that work deep in the count are going to K. Plus, with Kyle Russell's large K zone, it may be a problem.

But to say the guy is getting blown away is hyperbole.

I wish more guys could get blown away if they are going to put up his line.

The government needs my $600 like the Dodgers need another utility infielder with no power and limited fielding range.

I'll admit Steven Caseres has a problem:
27ks
2bbs
.276/.297/.437

This is an extremely dumb question, but besides Molly, are there other female DT commenters?

ps: JP Riccardi would never trade for Kemp and LaRoche. If he couldn't figure out what to do with a decent Frank Thomas (granted he's now on the DL), I doubt he'd see the value of of KeRoche.

182 Ryan Howard struck out a ton and he's fine, but find more examples of guys that struck out once every three at bats that became successful major leaguers. It doesn't happen all that often, and the problem's already started in Ogden.

Dunn was OPSing .850 in the bigs at Russell's age and struck out 23 times in 186 at bats in the Pioneer League at age 18. They aren't comparable players.

Adam Dunn has never came close to striking out 33% of the time in the minors let alone rookie ball. We are looking at a very small sample size, but he has a .460 BABIP, so his .309 average must have some luck to it, but striking out 33% of the time in rookie ball is getting blown away and is cause for concern. Our own K machiene Matt Kemp has only struck out 30%.

Both Sexson/Dunn struck out quite a bit in the minor leagues.

Dunn had a season with 100 Ks in A ball.
Sexson had some pretty horendous K/bb ratios coming up in the minors too:

37/87
43/115
39/118
27/87

Raul Mondesi had BB/K ratios of:
13/69 at A/AA
10/60 at AA/AAA
18/85 at AAA

It is possible to have a high K rate in the minor leagues and still be productive major leaguer.

I think when minor league instructors emphasize contact over plate discipline, the players begin to loss quite a bit of plate discipline by swinging early in the count. Hopefully, Russell doesnt end up like that.

Maybe a better way to measure Kyle Russell's contact skills is his percentage of swing and misses.

185-Yes, there are! And one who went to my high school, in fact!

If a guy strikes out 33% of the time he needs to have about a .374 BABIP just to hit .250 that's very tough to do. And Reg's point is this is happening against a bunch of guys who may not even reach AA ball. I don't think he is saying he has no chance, I think he is just saying let's not get carried away yet about a 22 year old OPS'ing over 1.000 in 94 rookie ball AB's with all those K's.

185
Sporky is a female commenter as well.

186--By just applying the k per Ab stat, you really are punishing players for working deep in the count.

Sure, there may not be many baseball players that make it to the bigs with a high K rates. But, there are also a very limited number of players that have Kyle Russell's skill & size. He's a very unique player, so there arent many comparables out there to him.

189 Boo Scummy Hills. Sorry. It's a force of habit thing.

Does oswald ever come around again or did D4P completely scare her away?

189

Awesome! Yep, that's all I have.

Since my NY adventure, I've been tuned into another blog "Slice - America's Favorite Pizza Weblog" to keep up on NY Pizza news. It's very entertaining, but I wanted to thank all of you for your recommendations for my trip.

For those of you in the NY area, Patsy's will have 60 cent pizzas on August 19th all day.

194
Heh heh, took care o' that.

195

btw, that's only for the location on 1st and 117th/118th

Every time I mention Christina, she seems to come back.

198
That didn't work.

From the press notes:

"The Whittier native has also played a near flawless shortstop, fielding 44 total chances with out an error. Garciaparra's range factor at the position is 4.35, slightly higher than injured Dodger shortstop Rafael Furcal's 4.24. Range factor is calculated by dividing putouts and assists by the number of innings played at a certain position. In 2006, Furcal led all Major League shortstops with a 5.01 range factor."

Range factor is calculated by dividing putouts and assists by the number of innings played at a certain position

Seems like there should be some kind of control for how many balls are hit in your general direction...

199 Patience grass hopper.

I would've used my first name, but it's equally androgynous, even to those who speak Korean. Maybe I should've chosen sporkette.

201 - Or at least exclude fly balls.

200
I wish they would take into account the fact that Furcal could throw to first out of left field.

I think posts from women on Toaster should appear in a different color. That way, the men will know to try to suck in their beer bellies.

I wish they would take into account the fact that Furcal could throw to first out of left field

...and that Pierre can't throw to third from left field.

206
Male posts = light blue
Female posts = pink

Range factor... hmmmmmmm, no further comment.
vr, Xei

200 Range factors for all Dodgers shortstops:

Furcal: 4.24 in 282 innings
Hu: 4.92 in 210.1 innings
Berroa: 4.83 in 205 innings
Garciaparra: 4.35 in 91 innings
Maza: 6.07 in 86 innings

208 if we wanna get into how posts between males and females should be different, i think we should ban the use of :) or ;) from one male poster to another male poster.

211 :)

Okay, I confess, I'm a girl! Buahahaha! I saw all of your beer bellies why you weren't looking.

Now I just have to break the news to my g/f.

210 Man, Maza was even worse than I thought. What's Ozuna's?

While, not why.

But don't worry, I was only joking. I think. {doublechecks chromsomes} Yep.

I know of a Whittier native with excellent range factor who will sign to play SS for the major league minimum plus a dog sitter.

:) !

Dan Uggla, Cody Ross, Jayson Werth:

Uggla as a 25yr old at AA was:
52bbs/103Ks in 498 Abs

Cody Ross as a 24yr old at AAA was:
49bbs/103Ks in 393 Abs

Jayson Werth as a 23yr old at AAA:
67bbs/125ks in 443 Abs.

Granted, these arent 1/3 K rates, but each player had a decent amount of power/patience, but released due to perceived poor contact skills thought to not translate to the big leagues.

Not saying contact skills have no value, but just dont over emphasize a K rate and ignore other skills---> which the Dodgers have done in the past.

I wish I hadn't outed myself as a female, and just showed up at the DT picnic. It would've been like a Shyamalan movie.

205 Nomar has a good arm. Furcal has a cannon, but Nomar has at leaset like a Civil War cannon.

213 - Now I just have to break the news to my g/f. Is that just another example where size didn't matter?

I'm female.

I don't comment much, but I'm an every day lurker..ette.

Range factor is essentially useless, but it actually works if you're comparing guys who play the same position on the same team, since the corrupting factors will be more or less the same. (Groundball/flyball staff, RH/LH breakdown of opposing batters, etc.)

NPUT

I was out of town for most of the weekend so I missed roughly 20 posts by Jon. I see DeWitt has spared Andrew Shimmin from a corduroy prison. I bet the tension here was palpable. [smiley face ommitted per 211 ]

217 But then you would have had to jump off a building inexplicably, or see dead players.