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Out of nowhere - which I guess is appropriate - Wilson Alvarez has hurled himself into National League Comeback Player of the Year candidacy.
Who's your pick?
Wilson Alvarez, 2002: 23 games, 10 starts, 75 innings, 36 walks, 56 strikeouts, 5.28 ERA
Wilson Alvarez, 2003: 19 games, 10 starts, 86 innings, 20 walks, 76 strikeouts, 1.99 ERA
Kevin Brown, 2002: 17 games, 10 starts, 63 2/3 innings, 23 walks, 58 strikeouts, 4.81 ERA
Kevin Brown, 2003: 31 games, 31 starts, 204 innings, 52 walks, 182 strikeouts, 2.43 ERA
Okay, it's still Brown - and by the way, there are no other candidates outside of these two. But Alvarez has been incredible. He continues to lead the league in post-All Star Game ERA, at 1.17.
John Wiebe at John's Dodger Blog e-mailed me overnight with this:
Wilson Alvarez : 2003 :: Terry Adams : 2001I'm writing this before John's Wednesday morning post, but with that caveat, I definitely agree about the surprise part, but I'm not sure about the fluke part. Why?Discuss.
Wilson's going to land another multi-year deal from somebody this off-season. I just hope it's not from L.A.
Seriously, this has got to be the biggest surprise since Lo Duca's 2001 season, but it can't be anything more than a fluke. Still, as I'm writing on my site today, the vicissitudes of good fortune have only swung our way when it is least convenient.
Hideo Nomo's ERA, year-by-year
1995: 2.54
1996: 3.19
1997: 4.25
1998: 4.92
1999: 4.54
2000: 4.74
2001: 4.50
2002: 3.39 (age 33)
2003: 2.98
Wilson Alvarez's ERA, year-by-year
1989: 81.00
1991: 3.52
1992: 5.20
1993: 2.95
1994: 3.45
1995: 4.32
1996: 4.22
1997: 3.48
1998: 4.73
1999: 4.22
2002: 5.28
2003: 1.99 (age 33)
Both pitchers went through a dead-arm period. Both pitchers are now operating in perhaps the best pitching environment in baseball.
No, I wouldn't expect Alvarez to return in 2004 with a sub-2.00 ERA. And few pitchers in this day and age deserve a contract beyond two or three years.
I'm no fan of bidding wars, but I'd certainly want to sign Alvarez for two years if the price were right. He's a year and a half younger than Nomo, his strikeout rate is at a career-high 7.95 per nine innings, and he has much fewer innings under his wide belt in the past four seasons.
As for Terry Adams, he was a career reliever who was converted (forced by circumstance) into being a starter. I don't know that he's as valid a choice for comparison.
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