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Florida beats Philadelphia today.
Los Angeles beats Arizona today.
Atlanta sweeps Florida this weekend.
Los Angeles sweeps San Francisco this weekend.
Philadelphia takes, say, two of three from Pittsburgh.
National League Wild Card Standings on Monday morning:
85-70 Florida
84-70 Los Angeles
85-71 Philadelphia
The Dodgers can pull even with Florida in the loss column with a week to go in the season. So they certainly can do it by season's end September 28, even without the above scenario taking place.
It's not that the Dodgers might not lose every game they play for the rest of the week. However, as much as it may frustrate those who are tired of the struggle, the Dodger playoff pursuit is not over.
I'm not saying this to be a rally monkey. I'm saying it only because it's true.
The Dodgers lost their past two games, but to two of the best pitchers in the National League. They probably will not face more talented pitchers the rest of the regular season, with the possible exception of Jason Schmidt on September 27.
The main caveat I will put in is that if the Dodgers are going to win this thing, they will probably have to take the wild card lead before their season-ending series in San Francisco. With the Marlins finishing at home with three games against New York, they aren't likely to let a lead slip away on the final weekend.
Forget about the Cubs - as I've been saying, the schedule should allow them to take the NL Central easily.
* * *
Update: Dodger postseason chances, from Baseball Prospectus
Today: 2.5 percent
September 17: 5.2 percent
September 16: 8.7 percent
September 15: 8.9 percent
September 14: 6.1 percent
September 12: 3.8 percent
September 11: 7.1 percent
September 10: 9.7 percent
September 9: 9.4 percent
September 8: 5.4 percent
September 7: 5.3 percent
September 6: 4.8 percent
September 5: 3.5 percent
September 4: 4.3 percent
September 3: 7.9 percent
September 2: 4.8 percent
September 1: 7.9 percent
August 31: 6.9 percent
August 30: 5.5 percent
August 29: 4.8 percent
August 28: 2.6 percent
August 26: 3.6 percent
August 25: 3.1 percent
August 24: 4.4 percent
August 23: 6.5 percent
August 22: 5.8 percent
August 21: 4.2 percent
August 20: 2.3 percent
Projected NL Wild-Card Standings as of September 17
Wins ... Team ... Chance of winning wild card
89 ... Philadelphia (31.0 percent)
90 ... Florida (59.6 percent)
88 ... Chicago (4.2 percent)
86 ... Los Angeles (2.5 percent)
85 ... Arizona (0.2 percent)
83 ... St. Louis (0.0 percent)
82 ... Montreal (0.0 percent)
(Division leaders account for the remaining wild card possibilities.)
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