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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
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More Other People's Words
2003-09-16 11:47
by Jon Weisman

This next one isn't a letter, but it certainly fits in the rubric of the headline above. David Pinto at Baseball Musings is "flabbergasted" by the stats of tonight's Dodger starter, Kazuhisa Ishii, against tonight's Dodger opponent, Arizona.

The first thing I saw was that Ishii had a career record against the DBacks of 3-0 with a 1.22 ERA. But then I noticed the context. He's pitched 37 innings against the DBacks, and has walked 24 men! That's almost six per nine innings. How does that jibe with a 1.22 ERA?

...None of the 24 batters Ishii has walked has come around to score! The Diamondbacks have not been able to execute against Ishii, going 0 for 18 with runners in scoring position against him with eight walks.

It's probably all luck, but it will be fun to keep an eye on this game tonight to see if it continues.

I myself have long had my own brush with confusion over Ishii's success despite walking so many. I analyzed it back in May, when I discovered that against Ishii, opponents were:

  • batting only .213 overall
  • slugging only .281 overall
  • batting only .140 with runners in scoring position
  • slugging only .186 with runners in scoring position
Those Ishii opponent numbers today?

  • batting only .225 overall
  • slugging only .352 overall
  • batting only .156 with runners in scoring position
  • slugging only .211 with runners in scoring position
As you can see, opponents have stepped it up a bit, but Ishii is still allowing hardly any hits at all with runners in scoring position.

I also wrote that in 2002, Ishii allowed only two home runs before May 31 - same as in 2003. In 2002, however, while his walks remained constant, Ishii allowed 18 home runs after May 31 (and until his season-ending injury in September 8). This season, he has allowed 11.

Ishii and Hideo Nomo are sixth and fourth in the league in walks allowed. But they are also highly ranked in lowest slugging percentage allowed. They simply do not appear to be giving into hitters, and hitters by and large have not been able to make them pay. Essentially, they're playing a game of chicken with the batters and winning.

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