Reg, I think Furcal is a lock for Type B status. Based on a quick & dirty look at the numbers, among 65 MLB SS, Furcal is currently:

20th in PA
16th in BA
14th in OBP
22nd in HR
24th in RBI

I have no idea where he ranks on F% or total chances, but for sake of argument let's assume he's 20th in both.

Furcal will drop in the counting stats rankings but not by much. If we assume a drop of 10 spots in each ranking (PA, HR, RBI, chances), Furcal's score would be roughly ~59 or 60.

Last year, the lowest Type B 2B/3B/SS was Rickie Weeks, with a score of 55.952. I think Furcal will beat that score. He'll be one of the lower Type Bs, but he'll still be a Type B.

P.S. - I'm not dead
P.P.S. - I can't wait for the triumphant return of Flight of the Conchords!

0 Thanks, I needed that.

YES! FLIGHT OF THE CONCHORDS!

FotC is always full of win.

Here's more from that episode, which got the Emmy writing nomination.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bhb57hn6cY

For Cargill in the previous thread, a LOOGY is also known as a PIERRE.

I can't decide which FotC song was better, "Part Time Model" or "Hip Hoppopotamus".

"Business Time" and the Bowie episode were also great, as was the binary solo by the robots.

I can tell already that we will not be graced by xeifrank's presence today.

We are 2 days away from the 10th Anniversary of the Peter Bergeron, Wilton Guerrero, Ted Lilly, and Jonathan Tucker to the Montreal Expos for Carlos Perez, Mark Grudzielanek, and Hiram Bocachica trade.

Two thumbs up for non-channel 2 thru 13 witty tv shows. Even if the website is blocked on my browser. vr, Xei

Disclaimer: This post was brought to you by Circuit City. Save up to $200 instantly on home theater systems. Free shipping to Bob's apartment on order $24 and up.

I also love, completely love, their Jacques Remy/French musical salute, that was utter genius, magnifique.

0 Stolen from this episode but with the names changed to reflect the Dodgers:

NedCo: How come you don't tickle me anymore, Frank?

7 Mermaids.
Mermaids.
Mermaids, mermaids mermaids mermaids.

9 I remember how happy I was that we got two All Stars for a bunch of minor league scrubs.

How times have chaged.

I wish people would get this excited about the shows I watch.

When will the governments realize it's got to be funky sexy ladies?

13
I also loved this line:

"A man is lying on the street, some punk has chopped off his head
And I'm the only one who stops to see if he's dead, aaoohhh
Turns out he's dead"

But you can't beat the lyrical genius of:

"I'm the Hiphoppopotamus, my lyrics are bottomless...[silence]"

So who watches Project Runway?

First it was Brett withe the mixed nuts, and then the TV...

Now you've driven my Honda into the pool!

I love Murray.

Question for the many baseball smartypantses hereabouts: Am I correct in my belief that Chad Billingsley is slated to start against the Cardinals on Tuesday, Aug. 5?

'Cause that will be my first time to see the Dodgers live since 2005, and I really don't want to get all amped up if Jason Johnson is going to be starting that night.

9 ,14
The best part about that was that I thought the Dodgers would miss Peter Bergeron the most. I think the ascension of Tom Bergeron as one of America's favorite television hosts was too much for young Peter to handle.

America simply can't support two Bergerons at once.

20
I would take that to the bank. Billingsley pitches tomorrow, and his next day would be August 4, but the Dodgers are off. He'll almost certainly start in front of America's Best Fans on August 5.

Oh man, today is a good day. Inglorious Bastards is out on DVD, finally in a package it deserves! Woo hoo! Fred Williamson and Bo Svenson in a crazy, testosterone-fueled war flick from Italy.

I like the Fred Williamson movie where he fights things.

9
Carlos Perez--now there's a name I have not heard in a while.

14 - was that really that bad of a trade? The only name I recognize on the Dodgers side is Lilly, and while it would have been nice to see him pitch in the old configuration of Dodger Stadium, the Bums did get a couple of guys that weren't half bad for most of their time in LA.

Bo Svenson...worst actor of all time? Or do I just remain scarred by the Walking Tall sequels? And where is my axe handle?

27 - He's a terrible actor and incredibly he placed the (probably too old for the role) Burt Lancaster(!) for that one, but it still kicks massive butt.

Re-placed, that is.

Never seen FotC, but that is classic.

Someone is bound to be all nostalgic for Carlos Perez.

Ironclad rule of Dodger Thoughts.

I always kind of liked him as a hitter, though I worried about his defense, but Mark Grudz has had a much better, longer career than even I imagined. He's just always been solid.

Its also soon going to be the 5th anniversary of the Bubba Crosby and Scott Proctor for Robin Ventura trade!

I'd like to see Matt Kemp put a trashcan in front of Carlos Perez after a bad outing.

33 - When is the anniversary of the Rickey Henderson signing?

Carlos Perez was pretty even keel, I recall.

36 http://tinyurl.com/65zguf

we just passed it 15 days ago

38 is in reference to 35

I don't care what's going on, no man should ever purchase a lime green leather belt.

31 - Maybe it's me. I always thought that Davey Johnson's misuse of Perez in April 1999 might have helped ruin him.

https://dodgerthoughts.baseballtoaster.com/archives/10998.html

20 , 22 Speaking of...I'm going to be in L.A. later in August and I'm hoping to catch one of the games against the Rockies on the 19th-21st. It's probably a bit too early to speculate on pitching matchups just yet - but I'm wondering how long I can hold off on buying tickets before I need to worry about missing out completely. Are the Dodgers selling out, and if so, how early? The 21st is a getaway Thursday day game if that makes any difference.

33 - I know Ventura had a pretty decent career, but I will always remember him for charging an aged Nolan Ryan, and being summarily beaten.

The pizza place I worked at in college had the picture of Ventura in a Ryan head lock getting pummeled on the wall. It made me smile every time I saw it.

Hey, it's an earthquake.

big quake here!!!
vr, Xei

Was there an earthquake in SoCal?

We've already passed the 10-year anniversary of the acquisition of Brian Bohanon, shockingly one of the better midseason pickups in LA Dodger history.

Bohanon was acquired from the Mets for Greg McMichael on July 15, and produced these numbers for LA:

14 GS
11 quality starts
97.1 IP (2 outs away from averaging 7 IP/GS)
2.40 ERA
167 ERA+

Sadly, he was only 5-7.

i wouldn't call that an earthquake, more of an earthitch.

I felt it in San Diego!

We must have just acquired Manny and angered the gods.

Wicked earthquake just ripped through LB. Wow. Cars rockin back and forth and the whole nine.

Oh yeah, that one was legit.

A moderate earthquake occurred at 11:42:15 AM (PDT) on Tuesday, July 29, 2008.
The magnitude 5.6 event occurred 3 km (2 miles) SW of Chino Hills, CA.
The hypocentral depth is 12 km ( 8 miles).

earthquake!

In Irvine at the moment, that was wicked cool.

A 5.8 is something. It counts.

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Quakes/ci14383980.htm

The USGS has revised it to 5.8.

Looks like at was a 5.6 centered in Chino Hills.

http://tinyurl.com/wereallgonnadie

The USGS approves of having earthquakes in Chino Hills. "Location Quality: Good"

It was felt here in the gateway to the SFV.

Sorry about that quake, fellas.

My wife just found out I bought baseball tickets.

58
I'm slow, but my tiny url is awesome.

that was.......weird. Hope everyone is alright!

It's the length that convinces me when it's substantial. This one rolled for a while. Mike in the cubicle next to me exchanged looks for a few seconds as it started, before it really kicked in ... and then it went on for quite a stretch.

Is this our biggest since Northridge? I can't remember breaking 6.0 since then.

Whoa! Is everyone okay down there?

I hope my mom's dog is okay - they're away traveling and it's being looked after by dogsitters and is probably freaking out. Or maybe not.

I blame Gary Bennett.

59 What does that mean?

Boulder CO, says 5.8 (Chino Hills area).
http://tinyurl.com/67pu5h
Luckily, not over the ocean.
vr, Xei

I have this vague notion that I was just starting to read BP when that trade was made and how the Dodgers were ripped for dealing Bergeron and Lilly. Bergeron was supposed to be the next Brett Butler.

I liked Carlos Perez and Grundy. I still remember the incredible Sept Perez had which led to the contract.
http://tinyurl.com/6rab8s

Make sure your pets are done soiling themselves and running around in circles.

felt it here in Fontana (at least a 5 or 6) we're all going out side now...

The important thing was that I saved my work, so that if the building came crashing down, future generations would know what I thought about the Emmy comedy writer nominees.

51 And the Times website is down. Your all doomed!

Andruw! Stop jumping on the dugout!

I was googling Boulder CO. USGS as it was shaking. :) First things first.
vr, Xei

I need to be held & cuddled...

72 It's Mother Nature's punishment, the whole plan was to prevent people from seeing TJ Simers or Bill Plaschke for at least an hour.

41 - "Among the reasons for the extension were the four complete games he threw in September 1998, including two shutouts."

I recall those well, and could understand Malone signing him for 3 years.

Did Kemp feel the quake? Does he still want to play in LA?

Sadly, there is no "Earthquake Index" for the USGS which I can easily manipulate.

75 Poor bleeder - maybe Nomar can come hang with you today since he's not doing anything else.

--

Btw, I was annoyed to read in the SF Chron's story of yesterday's game, a quote from one of the Giants' pitchers about the fan who was arrested after hanging off the dugout - "at least he was one of our fans, he was still there in the 8th" - Ho ho ho, pretty funny.

This is mother nature's punishment for giving us a double by Sweeney and a single by Andruw.

66- No idea. But it's on the USGS page about the quake.

supposedly they felt it in vegas and san diego too..

81 Good thing Sweeney didn't hit a home run.

82 It seems to be an uncertainty factor... how sure they are in the epicenter and their measurements or something. They don't do a particularly good job of explaining what it is.

83 My friend in SD confirms that.

i'll take that once every 5 or 10 years than hurricans and tornado's annually.

Well I didn't feel anything in Manhattan so it couldn't have been that big...

32 Always liked Grudz too. Think his Dodger SS BA record might have been snapped if only Furcal had stayed healthy.

73 Hah! I hope everybody's ship-shape out there.

83 Yes, I work on the 12th floor in a building in SD and it was going pretty good.

In other headline news, Facebook is pulling Scrabulous. Now Bob Timmermann will no longer be tempted to spell my name all the time =(.

My cat is nowhere to be found.

Hopefully it knocked out communications at Dodger Stadium so no trades could be made

91
Where are you in SD? I'm right next to UCSD, and I felt it pretty good here. I'm only on the 2nd floor though.

SI.com reports that the Dodgers and Red Sox are currently having discussions about Manny Ramirez.

The talks are said to be in the early stages, and there are said to be a number of obstacles that still need to be cleared. The Red Sox are probably looking for Matt Kemp or Andre Ethier, and the Dodgers would like to rid themselves of Andruw Jones' salary.

Ummm yeah, it had better not include Matt Kemp. 2 months of Manny for Kemp and to get rid of Andruw is just not worth it. Luckily they said there are a number of obstacles still needing to be worked out.

92 Whaaa...? Is that because Scrabble now has its own official application on FB? Which last I heard was pretty buggy. Maybe it's better now. Scrabulous was great, though their servers got overloaded frequently.

93 Whaaa...? Hope they're just under a bed somewhere.

the Dodgers would like to rid themselves of Andruw Jones' salary

What, $18 million a year is a lot all of a sudden?

Yeah, 94 meet 96 . Someone hack into Ned's cell phone, quick!

93
Cats find places to hide during earthquakes that will surprise you.

After the Northridge quake, my cat hid behind my stove for about two days.

Ethier and Jones for Manny Ramirez! Simple!

{snaps fingers}

Do it!

Logan White would HAVE to veto trading Kemp. He'd HAVE to... right?

93 in earthquakes cat's go to their "emergency" hiding spot, not even you know that that section of your house exists. happened with my cats all the time

This is probably not the place to make a joke about the earthquake being caused by Andruw Jones flatulence.

I don't see us acquiring a left-fielder unless we get rid of Pierre. Management's not moving Pierre to center or right, so there's no room for another left-fielder.

My dogs are trained to jump in the bathtub if they hear the tornado siren.

i'm in south orange county, so it was just a bit of a rocker for me. just spoke with my dad up in yorba linda, not too far from the epicenter and he said it was rocking up there.

Kent Shocknek is handling this one well.

I am seriously concerned he is even talking to the Red Sox. As I stated yesterday, we all know Ned wants to get a Veteran SS and Boston just happens to have one of those to package with Manny in the form of our old friend Julio Lugo.

101 - so, who plays right field? Pierre or Manny?

Shapiro: "I need more than Jones, Ned."
Ned: "Okay, how about...Juan Pierre?"
Shapiron: "Well...okay!"
Amazed, California jumps for joy. Literally.

108 Hah!

And what was the weatherman's name? Christopher Nance, maybe? Boy, did his eyes get big!

110. Ethier! and Kemp plays CF. I don't want to hear anything more about us giving up Ethier or Kemp just so we don't have to pay Andruw. Why did we sign him if we didn't want to pay for him? I mean, McCourt wouldn't let this happen....would he???

I was on the road when the quake hit and my first reaction was "dammit, what's wrong with my car now?" Once I realized it was an earthquake my thoughts turned to "crap, I'm sitting at a light under an overpass right now so if this thing's not structurally sound then I'm a goner."

Luckily I was just over in the Culver City area so it didn't shake all that hard.

Is it weird that one of the things I miss about living in California is the earthquakes?

112
Wasn't Nance the backup to Fritz Coleman?

And don't forget frosty spot Colleen Williams.

I went home to see how my cats were doing. Not sure if they were jumpy when it happened but 20 minutes later they were doing what cats do best.

113 Why so concerned about giving up Ethier? I still think that we're better with an outfield of bison, manny, and pierre than the outfield of bison, pierre, ethier, and druw.

There's a ton of not-news being not-reported on the local not-news.

Manny's contract is complicated. There are club options for 2009 and 2010 at $20 million each plus deferred comp of about $30 million paid out from 2011 thru 2026.

Brett, you got it goin oooooon.

Got it goin on.

117 barfing in your shoes?

115
No, I enjoy them as long as they stay below 6.25

116 I thought Nance was the early morning guy.

120
The deferred money has accumulated over the life of the contract (2001-present) so its not like a team acquiring Manny would be responsible for that.

Ho-Lee crap. That was the my first quake since having a baby. I'm at work, and my lady and 4 month old are at home. When your baby is at home it's a whole new kind of scary.

Side not-this was the first time I've ever been outside during a quake. That part was fun. Like surfing the ground.

120 He's already said that he wants the club options denied if he's going to be traded and I highly doubt we'd be on the hook for any of his deferred payments.

Nance was Fritz' backup until he left under a dark cloud of sexual harassment.

I hope my bookshelves are still standing.

I missed the earthquake!

108

HAHAHAHAHAHA I still remember that!

http://youtube.com/watch?v=_7sYB1uxt6o

117 My dogs were with me at the park. They ignored it. Retrievers -- bred to ignore gun fire. Bred to ignore earth movement? Of course, we are 20 miles away from Chino Hills.

115 I miss the earthquakes and Colleen Williams...

109 I'd be ok with Alex Cora.

I can't wait to get home and turn on the news so I can hear people describe what the earthquake felt like!

117 sleeping/nothing?

126 Side-Note....not Side-not.

Manny's always been one of my favorite players, it would be sweet if we could get him without giving up too much. I actually know the fan he high fived not too long ago.

Anyone think we can somehow acquire Manny, Cora, and Coco without giving up the Bison?

134 They were considering moving him for Uribe last week.

Can't we just trade a bag of balls for Adam Everett and forget about offense from the shortstop position? With Blake and Kent being below-average defenders we could use a slick-fielding shortstop.

123 I once made a crepe for Colleen Williams.

I'll tape it for you next time, Marty.

141 I like the way you think.

118. Because Manny is a detriment defensively and in the clubhouse. I can't even fathom the rift that would be created between he and Jeff Kent for biggest clubhouse problem. Besides, our OF defense would be absolutely atrocious with both Manny and Pierre in it. I'd rather keep Pierre as a 4th OF and occassional starter. Fact is, Manny is a DH and he is getting old. He has also stated he wanted to be assured that he could leave as a FA after this year and his options not be picked up by whomever acquires him. So yeah, Ethier for Manny does not work. I'd rather pray Andruw goes on a long DL stint and gets in shape while learning how to recognize a pitch again, then hopefully help us out next year.

131
I don't know what's better, that clip or David Horowitz facing a gunman while on air.

142 You shifty bastard....

Wait, is that a euphemism?

It's not?

Shoot.

142
That's a great opening line for a chapter in your autobiography.

Can't we just trade a bag of balls for Adam Everett and forget about offense from the shortstop position?

We forgot about offense from the shortstop position when Furcal got hurt.

142 Really? Breakfast in bed?

149 yeah, but defense would be nice.

151 As I typed that I remembered that we could just call up Hu, who would be no worse of a hitter than Everett.

If we want to forget about offense but still possibly get some offensive production in the future we might as well go with Chin-lung Hu. He's a whiz with the glove and proved last year he could hit a little. Now that he is hitting in AAA, this is the prime time to bring him up and see if he can hit a bit more. What do we have to lose? Angel Berroa is getting AB's now.

I really hope we just try out Hu. We have enough PVL's in our everyday line-up now.

Has Manny been that big of a clubhouse distraction? I always think of his problem being with the Boston brass and not with teammates or management.

150 Actually, it was on one of the soundstages at the Burbank studio.

You guys have more vivid imaginations than I do.

Now if had hired some Dominicans to roll the crepes, does anyone remember the Magic Pan (in Westwood, I think).

I just assumed we'd never hear from Hu again.

149 What I mean is that management seems to have interest in Jack Wilson because he's perceived as being at least a pretty good hitter and thus will cost us some prospects. Everett's not that much worse of a hitter, an even better defender, and shouldn't cost us more than a C prospect or two.

153 He's been able to hit for less than a week and now he is ready? I am just asking.

158 I think Wilson also saves them from venturing into the FA market for next season.

157 To bad no one in management is named Horton.

155 There was an incident with Youkilis earlier this season.

There's a fun old Jason Johnson video up on Diamond's blog now. Hopefully I'll still find it "fun" after today's game.

Say, is everyone set to ask Pee-Wee questions at 2pm? I wonder how many of us will ask him when he's coming back and will Sweeney be DFA'd?

Manny in LA would be trouble. They'd have to call someone up to play the John Haley role to Manny's Rodman.

News Alert

Somebody's perfumes fell off the dresser.

News Alert

159. I didn't say he was ready. I said if we are throwing offensive production out we might as well go with Hu. His confidence hitting has to be pretty decent right now after the past few days and now is a better time to bring him up than AFTER the trade deadline when we acquired some other worthless SS who is typically about the same player as Hu WAS earlier this season. Hu at least still has a chance to be able to hit in the majors.

164 Sweeney is the Jack Haley of Major League Baseball.

I'm a little late on this, but I thought the Pivotal Play was when Martin didn't block the plate on the throw from Matt Kemp. Very unlike him. So I think there were two Pivotal Plays in this game. Unfortunately the Dodgers messed them both up.

Great heart shown by the team that's for sure. And I am starting to like this Casey fellow.

N Y Post (yeah, I know): Dodgers lead for Manny, might go for Brian Roberts instead, front office divided over Ethier vs. Kemp. Given that this guy doesn't know that Nomar is hurt, I remain skeptical. http://tinyurl.com/57l83e

I'm betting my Casey is hiding behind the refrigerator right now.

Casey Blake? Also hiding behind the refrigerator.

170 I'm betting he has more heart, grittiness, and determination to be doing that. He's a gamer.

don't know if it's been discussed, but interesting Simers today, talking about/with Kent. Basically, Kent says he doesn't know if he's done after this year, but he's done with the Dodgers; wants to be closer to his family, etc. I kind of like this line:

"The four years here have been wonderful, and this organization is doing a good job of getting somewhere," says Kent in explaining why he won't be with the Dodgers next season. "But I'm not at the stage in my career where I'm going to get somewhere. I need to be there right now.

"And so we're just at different phases of our career."

That's actually the kind of thing I'd like to hear from a legit PVL (rather than what we consider PVL around here).

169 For example, sources say, the major league staff holds Ethier in much greater short- and long-term regard than Kemp. But the player development officials continue to believe that Kemp's rough spots will be smoothed over the next few seasons allowing him to capitalize fully on his obvious tool shed of skills.

168 - I think primogeniture dictates that my play wins.

169. I can think of 5 pivotal plays off the top of my head!

1. Jeff Kent not getting to the ball.
2. Ethier's catch being ruled a hit.
3. Kuroda throwing to 2nd and Russell not pointing as he should have.
4. Martin tagging high on the leg rather than the feet on the throw home.
5. Pierre being stranded on 2nd with no outs. Kemp did not have a good AB, his job was to push it to the right side and he was trying to tie the game and pulled it to third.

167 - oops, don't tell Jack I called him John.

154 We have enough PVL's in our everyday line-up now.

Ned [Cocks head, right eyelid twitches. Wrings hands.]: Enough!?!?! There can never be enough!!

Jeff Kent is at the phase of his career where he's below average in every facet of the game.

Set phasers to "suck"

But I like the guy.

174

Now come on, "management" i.e. Nedco! Why do you have to choose? Just play both of them. The "choice" should be between Druw and Pierre. Ah well, I'm heading into Madden territory with my repetition.

174 If Torre thinks Ethier is better than Kemp then he needs to be set out to pasture.

Dr. Kate Hutton is such a savvy vet. I remember when she was a young pup, scared of the cameras.

You can't teach this sort of grizzled veteran earthquakesmanship.

179 Sorry, but I can't but help be reminded of:

"Fans don't appreciate him.
Statisticians can't calculate him.
Bloggers downright brutalize him.
I like him."

From a geologist friend of mine: "I'm pretty sure that 'location quality' refers to the accuracy of the location of the epicenter, usually depending on how many sensors they have in the area."

I'm enjoying listening to the news conference at Caltech, as the scientist, used to talking to Caltech students, now has to explain how an earthquake works in simpler and simpler terms without becoming completely frustrated with the audience.

Now Jayson Stark seems to think that LA is in on the Teixeira sweepstakes.

Loney and an arm?

182 No Lucy Jones? I've met Lucy Jones

Trade deadline speculation... the most wonderful time of the year.

Where was my Dad during the earthquake?

He was "at Caltech where at the moment a tour of the seismological lab was being conducted."

174 I think there is a lot of truth in the idea that Matt Kemp is the kind of player that gets managers and GMs fired because you don't know if and when he has reached his ceiling aka potential.

A few years ago, I don't think you could have traded Matt Kemp one for one for Lastings Milledge or Felix Pie. Milledge was dealt for a defensive minded catcher and Pie has been pushed behind such players like Jim Edmonds and Reed Johnson.

And you certainly couldn't have dealt him one for one for Delmon Young.

If he continues to get better, than of course he becomes more and more entrenched in LA but the window of dealing him for a pretty good MLB player is probably closing and if they don't do it this year, it probably won't happen because either he will really begin to hit his potential or his plate discipline issues will become more problematic.

I am sure Torre sees Ethier in some sort of Paul O'Neil/Bernie Williams mode. Probably not a superstar but someone who does all the things well enough to be a productive player.

I say keep them both, but that's my take on what they could be thinking.

179
Except Props, he kicks butt in props.

I get at least 100 emails, from around the world, everytime the Dodgers lose to the Giants. I hope, every year, that the Giants lose 162 games.

NASA is 50 years old today. HAPPY BIRTHDAY.

NASA, alone with the NSA and LHC are known as the Physics PhD full employment act.

189 Sounds like an episode of Arrested Development.

Don't ask me why.

For a few years I'd categorize Bernie as a superstar. Ethier is no Bernie.

Weren't we having this exact discussion last year at the trade deadline regarding Manny?

188 :
http://www.bored.com/makecountdowns/show.php?id=139960

190 I think Torre literally sees Ethier in the O'Neill mode; he's said as much earlier this season. Hopefully he'll at least get as many chances to start as O'Neill had.

Per Ken
"With the Eric Chavez "shredded shoulder" news, all A's fans are drooling over idea of getting Andy LaRoche to replace him. The Dodgers seem to inexplicably hate LaRoche, but their front office is so disfunctional, it's crazy to get any hopes up. You have to want the Dodgers to (a) remain disfunctional enough to keep disliking a good prospect, and yet (b) overcome their disfunction enough to make a decision to trade him. Good luck with that."

I hate it when the Manny speculation begins, he is an obvious bad fit for this team.

I bet the trading deadline is fun when you trust your GM.

Kemp is already better than Ethier now, without even taking stolen bases into consideration, which makes him even more better.

I am mortified at the notion that anyone on the coaching staff would choose to keep Ethier over Kemp long term. That's just terrifying stuff right there.

Does anyone have any statistics on which baseball trade speculator/journalist is wrong more frequently? Rosenthal, Stark or Olney? My money's on Rosenthal for highest WRoNG %, but the other guys have pretty good numbers.

199 Seriously. It's so frustrating when your GM and coaching staff can't value players properly.

You know it's a slow news day when the Dodgers shortstop problem is the second biggest story on ESPN.

200

Where does Jon Heyman fall on that scale?

I can see Management preferring Ethier. I mean, if it weren't for Dodger scouts, Ethier would have never even played the game of baseball in the first place.

196 ...and Ken Rosenthal seems to inexplicably hate the Dodgers. (Not to defend Ned and the dysfunction, but he kind of bashes them a lot.)

I was in the middle of a focus group at Warner Brothers watching the pilot of 'Fringe' when the quake hit. Is that a bad omen?

199 I don't think that's true. He's slightly out hitting Ethier but Ethier's defense is much better.

203 Heyman's WRoNG% is lower but he's also got less appearances.

All of these rumors is why Jon spends time trying to figure out if "Mad Men" will win the Emmy this year.

199 . The story came from the NY Post. 'Nuff said.

Besides, it is obvious that Torre values Kemp over Ethier, as, whenever Pierre and Jones have been healthy this season, Ethier has been the odd man out, not Kemp.

207

The fact that Kemp can play CF blows the defense argument away, in my opinion.

Actually, the NY Post's Joel Sherman has the highest WRoNG% in the league. And speaking of Sherman, he has new (not) Manny/Dodger blather as well as this tidbit, via MLBTR:
"Sherman also talked to one NL exec who believes the Dodgers might instead acquire Brian Roberts, pushing Jeff Kent into a utility role and leaving the shortstop problem unresolved."

200 Again, when the Dodgers make a move, it tends to just pop up. Sure, Casey Blake was mentioned but not until Saturday morning did it really get down to who and where.

Please, people. Let's not divide into Ethier vs Kemp camps. We're all on the same side!

Forget earthquakes - I need someone to hold me because of the trade deadline!

213 Definitely.

205 Rosenthal here says no Manny, no Tex, no Everett, no Wilson, maybe Roberts this winter but only a backup shortstop now. Let's hope he's right for once. http://tinyurl.com/68say5

you can't get on MLB Trade Rumors now. Too much interest, I guess.

It is funny how the Dodgers are showing up in every other rumor or name that is surfacing right now, and I'm sure most of it is either bunk or at least won't come to fruition.

Still, I'm afraid...

Wait, you mean Kent has said in the media that he won't be back next year? And no discussion of whether he would qualify as a type-A free agent?

Will Carroll on why there are so many conflicting stories at this time of year (via his free chat on BP going on now).

We're not often hearing things directly from the people involved and even then, they'll be a little shifty. (As they should be!)

Add in BS, trial balloons being floated to gauge fan reaction, and the give-and-take of trade talk, there's bound to be a little bit of error. Don't discount being lied to as well. It's happened to me.

211 It is weird that Kemp is both an average corner guy and an average centerfielder. However, since Kemp isn't a plus defender anywhere, he can't really add to the cause where as Ethier on a corner is a huge asset.

I think you tend to overrate defense in general, so we'll just have to agree to disagree.

219 Me, too.

222 But doesn't Kemp's bat become more worthwhile as a centerfielder than it does as a corner?

220 He said it is doubtful and no his free agent status was not mentioned.

I don't think Simesr, Kent or the LA Times cares right now what kind of FA status he might be at the end of this season.

219 224 I first posted here a year ago, seeking shelter from the storm.

Rosenthal here says no Manny, no Tex, no Everett, no Wilson, maybe Roberts this winter but only a backup shortstop now

How many backup shortstops do we need...?

220 I was just wondering that, too. What sort of comp do the Dodgers get for Kent? I've always been under assumption that he was going to retire after this year but maybe not, judging by his comments.

I appreciated his candor actually.

I could see him continuing on as a DH for the Rangers or someone, but can't see him playing in the field after this year. I can hardly watch him playing in the field now.

226 If Simers were a better journalist, though, he would think of it and put in his article somewhere, though, even if not asking Kent about it.

223 Well I think most people underrate defense, so there.

229 On the same time as Milton Bradley?

Brian Roberts:)

Oh wait, I forgot, Abreu will be just as good as soon as he comes back from missing the last year with various injuries.

Am I wrong to comprehend that the biggest fear about dealing Matt Kemp is that he could become another Pedro Martinez?

228 Ned seems to be bad at identifying problems.

Most people underrate regfairfield's rating of defense.

231
How do you measure defense? I suggest we discuss the pros and cons of various defensive metrics.

232 - Hah hah! Is Bradley back next year? Okay, scratch THAT idea. Though when Kent said he would like to be closer to home, I thought of them. He needs to be in the AL somewhere...

How about trading Kent to the Angels? They apparently want Texiera (sp?), but we'd take less for Kemt, who might give them just enough extra offense.

I don't know who I'd want back -- it wouldn't be much -- but it seems like there could be a fit.

(Isn't it very Plaschkeish of me to suggest trading a Dodger player without mentioning who we should get back?)

234 Nope, he still has the Vlad Guererro ceiling.

Andre Ethier drives in runs with his glove.

230 Why would he put it in, I mean it really doesn't add to the story and no one knows what his status will be until the rankings come out in October.

231

No offense (get it?). Just saying...

I overrate defense at 2nd, SS, 1st, RF, CF

I underrate defense at 3rd and LF

234 Basically. The offense equivalent. And the fear that NedCo almost always seems to not get enough in value in return for what he gives up. He's a 5-tool player with otherworldly potential. He could certainly crash and burn, or just never get any better at all, but the assumption is that he will.

234 And it's not like he's struggling out there right now...

239 I think they have plenty of outfielders rotating through the DH spot. No room to add Kent if he wont play the field.

243 I would hate myself if I ever used a sentence that ended in "so there" seriously.

239
Why would anyone trade for Kent? We are the only team foolish enough to be playing him. No one else would. Other teams would talk about releasing him not batting him 4th.

We aren't trading Kemp. Write it down on a Post-it and stick it on your computer. There is no reasonable scenario for trading Kemp. Ethier is almost equally safe. Joe Torre would have a cow if either was traded given the rest of the outfield we've got.

If we make a trade, Casey Blake's will be the model. An assortment of prospects would go for someone to fill in at SS, or to take over for Kent at 2b, or to put a veteran presence in the bullpen.

242 True enough. I just find it interesting, that he could be a free agent and go play somewhere else next year rather than retiring, but the actual compensation, it's true, we won't know that 'til post-season.

245
otherworldly potential

Good thing we don't over rate our players.

249 That seems a bit dramatic. I agree he shouldn't be hitting clean-up but besides having some bad luck as of late, I guarantee you other teams would play him somewhere, whether in the field or as DH. There are plenty of teams who could use him, as down a year as he's having.

Bernie Williams and Paul O'Neill were guys who won batting titles. Ethier, barring a giant leap forward, is not that kind of player. These people have to know that, right?

I mean, I don't see why the Dodgers have to choose one over the other. It's a false dilemma. But if it were real, the answer is all kinds of obvious.

250 Agreed, we have two competent outfielders in our organization above A ball, we can't trade one of them.

248
As a basement dwelling blogger I thought you already hated yourself.

248

I know.

The Astros need a second baseman, right?

Ethier +Jones for Manny is really tempting.

Kemp + Jones is not.

254
A lot of people at DT, right around this time in 2006 thought Ethier might win a batting title. I remember the big discussions about getting enough at bats to qualify.

We have had a lot of silly moments.

258 And the Astros, like a certain blue-wearing team, prefer their players old and crappy.

249 Seattle? See Vidro, Jose.

Is ManRam going to drop off a cliff next year? Most likely no right?

It would be so great if Houston signed Kent next year and gave us draft picks. They basically don't believe in the draft anyway. It would be such an Astros thing to do.

253
Really, name one team in contention who would consider Kent as DH or 2nd baseman compared to what they have?

I see I am around 400 comments behind, despite merely lurking for several days. Ah well.

I have attended two games so far this year (with tix for several more), both Kuroda losses, including last night, which was a strange game as many here documented. I will add (and forgive me if this was already discussed) that the worst call of the night was not by an umpire (and from my vantage point in IF RS Sec 3 Casey Blake's bat never came over the white of the plate), but by the official scorer:

J Pierre Single to C (Bunt to Front of Home); Sweeney Scores/Adv on E2 (throw)/unER; Pierre to 2B

That terrible bunt couldn't have traveled more than three or four feet in front of home plate and the throw crossed the 1B bag well before JP got there. Molina had so much time and the bunt was so short, he even took a glance to see if he had a play at third.

After witnessing RBI hits from Sweeney, Jones and Berroa, I was expecting the next miracle to be a visitation from Our Lady of Chavez Ravine. I hope luck continues (starts?) for the Dodgers and for me, as I am Vegas bound. Can't see LaWitt, DeRoche and the boys as I won't make game time tonight and they hit the road after that.

All the DVD's fell off a Blockbuster shelf in Chino.

I'll keep you guys up to date as the news pours in from my sources.

I could be mistaken but has Pierre attempted a stolen base since coming back from the DL? I don't need to tell anybody how worthless he is without his speed.

People still go to Blockbuster?

260 I don't know if that qualifies as silly; I mean, the man was pretty close to the league lead in batting as of July or so. It was no sillier than the talk earlier this year that Chipper Jones might hit .400.

Since then we've gotten a better idea of what Ethier is and what he isn't.

Silly would have been predicting batting titles for him before he even played in the majors. Then again, that's what some people (including MSM) were doing with Loney.

267
You are going to feel humbled when you find out a piece of concrete broke loose from a parking structure at CSLA and killed a possum playing dead.

266

I was shocked too that they gave Pierre a hit on that play. The first baseman did not get back to cover. I think the replay of Casey's swing shows it could have gone either way...very close.

It took me over two hours to realize that everyone moved to the irrelevant post up top.

I thought you all were under a desk somewhere.

265 There have been reports that the Rays want to trade for Kent.

But given that it's Ned, and it's Tampa Bay, the Dodgers would surely find a way to get screwed.

270
We had a good idea of what Ethier was, and it wasn't a batting champion. He is exactly what his numbers said he would be. Imagine that, minor league numbers actually meaning something.

273
Kent for Al Reyes.

270 So, really really silly then?

I often find myself rereading sentences when the words Ethier and either both appear.

273
Yeah, I believe those rumors as much as I believe Tommy only cares about what is best for the Dodgers and his own self interest is never considered.

275
That is actually funny. Think about it, we'd be willing to trade our clean up hitter for a broken down relief pitcher.

I still predict a Loney batting title.

I like Loney to a 24yo Mark Grace. With many more doubles.

What is the realistic market for Kent this offseason? Do you take the chance of offering arbitration in hopes to score some draft picks? He would get around 10 mil in arbitration, win or lose. If he sees that he can't get more than a $4/year offer what are the chances he comes back?

272 - If I were the official scorer on the play, I would not have given a two-base throwing error for the simple reason that no one was standing on first base to receive the throw.

I could have given an error to an infielder for not covering, and then another error to Molina for throwing wild, but then I'd have Bob to deal with.

So I'm cool with single + error.

Pierre was given a hit on that??? I realize you can't give a guy an error for taking too long to throw, but the throw still beat him after the ill-advised look at third.

i hope everybody is safe and sound after the quake. my fingers are crossed.

I believe the point of Simers' article was that Kent was retiring at the end of this year. He also seem to try and get across that he has enjoyed his time in LA but misses his family and doesn't want to be separated from them for long periods anymore.

I forgot to mention it earlier, but I'm 95% sure I saw Keith from Scrubs at the game tonight. I only saw him as I was walking back from the concession stand and I was never able to spot where he ended up sitting.

272 it seemed to me that the first baseman was actually trying to retreat to first and shielded the second baseman from the throw...and Molina was throwing around the first baseman...a real mess...

but no way was there a hit there...the ball went past first while Pierre was several steps from the bag

That play was just weird all around. In no way did Pierre deserve a hit, and in no way did Molina deserve an error. Blame it on baseball's picky scoring rules.

287 Last night, not tonight. I'm not a psychic...yet.

I'm 95% sure I saw Keith from Scrubs at the game tonight

Who won...?

282
Kent retires, when your offense sucks for a 2nd baseman no one is going to play him at 1st or DH and he is not going to take kindly to sitting on the bench.

He's a HOF who never won a world championship. It happens, he had his chance, his team gave it up and his veteranness did nothing to staunch the wound that Spezio inflicted.

I also heard that on the replay, Kemp did throw out the runner at the plate...that plus Kuroda's wrong base throw...and the inning is several runs shorter for the Giants

281
Grace hit 511 doubles in his career, so if Loney comes close to that I'll be impressed.

And the retraction beats the snarky comment by a nose!

293 Much was made of the bad call on Ethier, but I'm surprised not many have complained about the call at the plate. The replay seemed persuasive (albeit a little less persuasive) on that one too.

285 Thanks.

I believe all is well, though there are a few DVD's in Chino that have seen better days.

294
I'll take Loney in the 3-bagger race with Grace.

295
You won this time, but I'll be back...

296 you are referring to his inning ending catch?

292 Like Nomar, he has a ring from the team that traded him (Toronto) that then went on to win the World Series. But the way these things are usually looked at, he was not part of a championship team.

Dodgers and Diamondbacks are both LWWWL in their last five games. Dodgers magic number is now down to 59. vr, Xei

Kent is almost certainly going to retire, but if he didn't he will likely be a Type B free agent.

303
I have some tense issues with that comment.

I'm sorry but I think when things happen somewhere, you should use the local time as the reference point in the story.

The 2:42 p.m. ET quake was initially estimated at 5.8 but was revised downward to magnitude-5.4 by seismologist Kate Hutton of the U.S. Geological Survey office in Pasadena. More than one dozen aftershocks quickly followed. The largest were magnitude-3.8.

Anyone seen Wicked, or any other play for that matter, at the Pantages? Would you recommend good Mezzanine tickets or less good Orchestra tickets?

265 Honestly, I don't think there are that many teams that would consider Kent an upgrade right now at 2nd, especially on defense, and was surprised the Rays were interested, though I guess they would be one of the few contending teams that legitimately could use a little more PVL, I suppose. I guess he'd be better than Akinori Iwamura. Minn, Washington, Pitt and even Milwaukee might consider him an upragde. I could think the Angels could fit him in DH rotation at least, no? Maybe the Indians, he could finish his career full circle.

At any rate, I wish he could DH for us (and not in the clean up spot), because I still think his bat can be of some use but in general his defense clearly isn't.

I was working, were there any stupid trades while I was gone?

294
Wow, Mark Grace has the most doubles of any NL 1st baseman since integration.
In both leagues he has HOF Murry above him and HOF Perez below him. On top is of course the guy they traded so he could play 1st base.

I would be happy if James Loney was the 2nd coming of Mark Grace.

297 - In other real news today, Brett Favre used a fax machine. To repeat, a fax machine was used by Brett Favre this afternoon. Details to follow.

(Oh, and yes, the Mariners, but that was already said.)

307 - The Yankees are giving at-bats to Richie Sexson. I'm sure they'd rather give those to Kent.

310 - Kim Ng is done with Jeff Kent, thank you.

309 Is that on ESPN's special Favre Repovrte section, or on their all-day Favre Corverage?

307
I always go for the first row in the Mezzanine over further back Orchestra seats. It is really a matter of necessity since my wife is only 5 feet; it doesn't take much for someone to block her view.

312 Wha... did I miss some news??

Hey people, DY chat is up now.

310
The Mariners are in contention? Someone should notify U.S.S Mariner because I don't think they are aware of it.

315 - If I believe in Kim Ng going to the Mariners hard enough, it will force McCourt's hand to act accordingly. It's a whole mental game of dominoes I'm playing in my head.

I sat in the orchestra seats but I bought mine through Goldstar (so you don't know where you are exactly sitting but I got them at half price).

316 No, but I would find it amusing if Jeff Kent ended up there, personally.

314 That may be good advice as I will be accompanying someone about 5'2".

DY swears that Kemp and Kent do listen to Lil' Wayne together in the training room. "it's a sight you have to see!" I still think he's pulling our leg...

BREAKING NEWS!!

Brett Favre faxed something to the league office.

320 Just so you know, two of the people I went with are are well under 5 feet tall and they did fine from our left sided orchestra seats.

321 Lil' Wayne is a healthy alternative to clubhouse porn.

I'll bet it was a fax to Roger Goodell from Future Roger Goodell.

Sorry 309, I see you already got us the bulletin. I swear, the ESPN NFL guys should just wear the kneepads for the guy outside their slacks.

318 no go with Gold Star, but I appreciate the input.

Was the worse commercial in history talked about last night? Nothing like selling your food by saying it is as good as a kick in the nutts.

Bob Ley: "Chris, did Brett dial the number himself."
Chris Mortensen: "He did. His dialing was a little unorthodox but the call went though."
Bob Ley: "We have John Clayton here, John, who owns the fax machine."
John Clayton: "Sources indicate it has a big "G" on it."
Bob Ley: "Thanks professor. Ron Jaworski is joining us, Jaws, can you illustrate the procedure?"

328
I laughed out loud the first time I saw that commercial this weekend. "It's funny on so many levels."

324 that made me laugh

325 also made me laugh

I'm like those insufferable people who brag about not having a television.

I don't watch ESPN.

/Smug

327
http://tinyurl.com/57mhta

Delwyn called Loney (whom he's played with since 2002) "Weird Game James"

308 leon durham?

In the Pee Wee chat:
"Why does Loney change his song like every at bat?"
DY: "I've been playing with Loney since 2002 and there are still things I can't figure out why he does them. Weird game James."

Kent called Loney a "wild bird" earlier this season.

Caltech can't find which fault it is.

Ned Colletti says it's the youth's fault.

I usually hate nicknames, but I'm totally down for Weird Game James.

I'm really curious about what Loney's like in the clubhouse. They did a "who's the funniest person on the Dodgers" and the unanimous answer was "Loney, he just doesn't know it".

339 - Me too.

Wow, gotta love the filter on the Pee Wee chat:

"How big a cancer is Andruw Jones to the team?"

Classy response from DY to the Jones question.

I still love that Loney's myspace song is a Paul Wall song where he says,"I'm runnin diamonds like James Loney..."

Wow, what a horrible question someone just asked DY about Andruw, poor taste - I'm surprised he answered that one.

"Would you trade Matt Kemp for Jack Wilson?"

DY: "Is that a serious question?"

:)

Wait until you see the question to DY from josh90731

Even Torre said once "that's just James" when answering a question about him. So maybe he is a little different.

"Bokonon42" ... ah, yes.

339 From everything I've heard, Loney sounds like a nice guy who is a goofball and in his own world a lot of the time when not playing.

349
Loney being Loney

Wait... who the heck was Pee Wee in "Stuck on You"??

How big a cancer is Andruw Jones?

Is my new screen name.

Move over, Greg Brock.

is there a link to the chat? Can't find it above.
vr, Xei

Drat. My question about Casey Blake's beard will have to wait for another day to be answered.

351
Pee Wee put on a lot of makeup to look like Greg Kinnear. It inspired Robert Downey Jr. for his "Tropic Thunder" role.

Broxton has a three foot alligator.. Is that a euphemism?

353
I think if you don't get in right around 2pm (or whenever the chat starts) the link takes you to the general fan forum page. The transcript will be posted later.

355 Hah hah. Man, that freaked me out - the first time I saw Downey on the poster and didn't know what the movie was about.

I think DY must not have been much of a question posing draw. If I thought it might get through, I would have asked a much more loaded question.

254 , 260 - i will maintain that Ethier has the potential to win a batting title. i will also maintain that the Dodgers will rue the day that they trade Ethier, rue, i say.

359
Did you ask a question? I didn't see any questions regarding Byrnesie.

What did Bokonon42 ask?

359 - I think a bunch of us probably asked questions, along with a lot of other Dodger fans, actually; I just question how they filter/chose the ones they used.

362 Stealing from Eric S, bokonon asked:

"Would you trade Matt Kemp for Jack Wilson?"

DY: "Is that a serious question?"

Well, actually the 2nd part of that question was something like, "and how dumb would someone have to be to believe in that trade" or along those lines...

364 No! It's not a serious question!

I submitted: Have you ever pooped a balloon?

No response.

That Bokonon dude is the Avon Barksdale of the internets.

Hey! Didn't Ned grow up on Bokonon Avenue???

I asked a few questions, but my dumbest one ("Are you the greatest player ever to come out of RCC?") made it through.

I like our young Dodgers. They should create a Saturday Cartoon starring Pee Wee, Weird Game James, The Bison, and air it on BET right after the Black Panther.

Jayson Stark says the Angels just took Kotchman off the field, Tex deal seems about to go down.

http://tinyurl.com/6ylst5

LA Times is reporting the Angels just traded for Mark Teixeira.

Still no word on the Dodgers trading Kemp and Ethier to get Manny. Hopefully that word never arrives.

ESPN:
Angels first baseman Casey Kotchman was pulled off the field during pregame warmups this afternoon at Fenway Park. And there are strong indications he is about to be traded to the Braves for Mark Teixeira, according to a source with knowledge of those discussions. Details are still being finalized, and additional, lesser names are expected to be involved. But Kotchman for Teixeira is the core of this deal.

The latest: A second source with knowledge of these discussions says the Braves will get Kotchman, plus a second lesser name, for Teixeira in a 2-for-1 deal.

Add a certain veteran centerfielder, and you've got something:

Fat Andruw!

373
So that's why the LA Times website was down...

I like this deal for the Angels. They really are in a situation to go for it and unlike other teams they have the bankroll to sign Tex if he likes it here.

Ned will get reamed for letting him go to the Angels.

377
Ned will get reamed for letting him go to the Angels

By one person especially.

Tex is pretty much a lock to walk after this season isn't he?

Halos gave up Stephen Marek at AA.

371 That's an awesome idea! Can it be hosted by Bill Cosby?

--

Whoa, about Texeira. That's cool - that would actually be good for both teams, and keeps him out of the NL West. I wonder who the other player will be?

In retrospect, this haul does not look anything like what the Braves gave up to get Tex. Everyone of those guys look like they are going to have major league careers and a couple might end up being special.

So who plays first for the Angels last year if Tex doesn't sign?

383 Uh, that would be next year...

Given that Young took two questions in a row from jerks, maybe he was auditioning for a fill-in role on Dodger Talk.

Morales or some would have you think Jeff Kent.

Isn't Kotchman's dad an Angels scout or something?

384 - i believe in the Angel-verse, the answer to that questions is always, "I don't know, but worst case scenario, we can put Figgins there"

Maybe they traded his dad too.

373 - I'm happy the D'backs didn't get him. The Angels know they're going to the playoffs so they are definitely in a position to go all out to win it this year. Especially if K-Rod leaves. Tough trade for Kotchman though.

387 Manages for them in the Pioneer League.

Kotchman's dad and a prospect for Teixeira's dad.

Seriously, nice deal for the halos. And they can re-sign him.

Maybe Kotchman will remember how to take walks now that hes freed from the clutches of Mickey Hatcher.

That won't be anything compared to when we release Preston.

MLBTraderumors says: "Solid return for the Braves, certainly beats a couple of draft picks of unknown position. Kotchman is under team control through 2011."

Looks like I'll have a rooting interest in October provided the Rays fall to 3rd.

So, does Tex going to the Angels result in a retaliation trade by NedCo? Should we assume it would be on the order of a retaliation if Tex had ended up in Phoenix?

397
I would guess this trade has zero impact on the Dodgers.

396
The Dodgers will be playing in October though.

397 The Angels got a superstar.

The Dodgers got Casey Blake.

The Angels just got 25 rings in boxes.

The Dodgers did not.

398 Unless they meet the Halos in the WS.

398 - in a reasonable world, you are correct. in a world run by a PR man, with Plaschke typing out three word paragraphs? not so much

400 , 402 - ok, four word paragraphs.

400 Bill?

Rotoworld disagrees: The Angels get a nice upgrade here, but they're giving up a 25-year-old with room to improve for just two months of an at least somewhat overrated first baseman. Marek was also one of their top prospects. A move to the pen this year has him looking like a potential closer.

"Rings in Boxes" sounds like an 80's synth pop band.

German. Perhaps Belgian.

406 When you really become "Andrew Jones is a Cancer," I'm moving to "Juan Pierre Has a Ring in a Box."

Salty - starting catcher for Texas
Andrus - starting SS in the Futures game for the World(moving DeJesus to 2nd)
Matt Harrison - already in rotation
Neftali Feliz - hit 100 MPH this summer. Stock has soared. 20 year old is in AA now with 127K in 102 innings.
Beau Jones - eh

Versus
Casey Kotchman- major league 1st baseman with good average, below average power, excellent glove

No postseason in 2007 or 2008, was it worth it?

406 - Or a song by Einstuerzende Neubauten.

Andruw Jone's Cancer
Juan Pierre's Ring in a Box

Always make it possessive.

Question...

If the Dodgers trade more many, don't they have the right to pick up his option from 2009, and 2010?

407 - can I take "The Angel Way Use To Be the Dodger Way"?

Hey we only have two of the 10 worst deadline moves in the last 10 years. Take that the Mets!

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8386714

407 And then we all turn into sentence-having screen names, and this place becomes BBTF, and everything goes downhill.

Nothing is guaranteed, I think a bigger deal for the Angels (and the rest of the AL) would be Manny leaving the Red Sox. No matter who they got back, the Manny/Big Papi combo was the key to their titles (along with their starters).

Since there in no mention of any cash considerations, I'll assume the Angels added about 4 million in payroll with this deal. (123 million total payroll)

Now, they do have about $24 million coming off their payroll with Anderson and Garland both being free agents (Anderson does have $3 million buy out).

408

When was that trade? 2 years ago? It just seems like some weird dealings by the Braves

Might as well trade Chipper while his value is high.

408 No, but the Braves knew they wouldn't be a very good team beyond 2008 so they went for it. I still like the move.

414

I want to be "Eric Karros' Lost Allstar Ballots"

408 Don't forget Ron Mahay and Stephen Marek. But it does seem like the Braves panicked. (Or they could not get the Dodgers to trade Loney and James McDonald)

The Angels know what to do with prospects.

You trade them. For players. Who can help you. Now.

The Dodgers are like "Annie." But sometimes the sun should come out today. Tomorrow we might be dead.

Think.

About.

It.

Thousands of Dodger fans will die. This year. Without experiencing a pennant since 1988. If they even remember back that far.

Do you? I don't.

McCourt doesn't care if Dodger fans die.

One thing for sure. When Dodger fans die, they become Angel fans. For eternity.

411
I'm assuming you asked if the Dodgers trade for Manny, can they pick up his two option years? The answer is yes, but it's possible that Manny won't OK a trade to LA if the Dodgers don't immediately pick up the options, or sign him to an extension.

Ned is going to be so geeked up when he steals Garland away from the Halo's.

420

That was awesome

The only Angels in Los Angeles are dead Dodgers.

Can anyone tell me what Kotchman's contractual status is after this year? A couple more years of arb?

421 I've seen reports that indicate exactly the opposite: that Manny won't approve a trade unless the team agrees to NOT pick up his options, so he can become a free agent this offseason.

421 I thought Manny wanted to be a free agent?

I think we need to have a Plaschke writing contest.

Winner gets a date with Alyssa Milano.

Someone make this happen

I'm sure Colletti will do some sort of deal. He can't get a reputation as the guy who isn't down to trade! All the guys will talk behind his back, and then he can't get a date to prom, and it just gets worse from there.

423 It's frighteningly easy.

At least he won't trade for Jack Wilson. He would get laughed out of town if we dealt for Jack the day after the Angels got Tex.

Who has a big name that sucks that is available? Kent, Nomar, Andruw, Pierre, oh wait we already have them.

424
Angels in Los Angeles are Dead Dodgers

Live at the Santa Monica Civic.

426, 427 I've seen those reports too. Either way, with Manny's 10-5 status, it's entirely up to him to OK any trade, but I also think that guaranteeing him $40 million over the next two years by picking up his options could get him to come here. You never know with Manny.

420 Kotchman was not a prospect (in the same sense that Loney, Kemp, etc. are not prospects)

They dealt their everyday first baseman and a prospect for a two month rental. Now, they certainly will have some sort of advantage when it comes to resigning him but a lot of their players are now entering arbitration and/or free agency too, will the Angels want to keep paying a $120M payroll especially if their revenue streams are somewhat peaked (broadcast tv ratings down, attendance down slightly).

Or will Arte Moreno finally have to raise ticket prices and will that have a negative impact.

425 The Braves will have 3 more seasons (all arbitration eligible but he is making less than 1.5 this year) as Kotchman will not be a free agent until after the 2011 season.

434
I thought 420 was clearly a Plaschke parody.

Some guy just called 710 and said the Angels just traded away the best 1B in baseball.

That must've been some kind of sick joke.

436 I thought that was a little over the top for Dzzz. Hey, at least I got my draft on my letter to the editor ready.

I guess the thinking is the future is now. The Angels apparently believe the cliched observation that to overcome the Red Sox, they'll need more home runs.

Kotchman has been okay, but overall, hasn't he been a disappointment, or at least a slow work in progress? If the Dodgers were in the Angels' situation -- playoffs nearly assured, heady competition in the post-season -- would such a deal look so bad? I think the Angels are willing to finish third next year if they can win a championship this year. The Dodgers don't have that choice in front of them.

The Dodgers are way ahead of the Angels. They'll finish in third place this year and next year.

In your face, Arte Moreno. In. Your. Face.

Some Angel fans love the deal and some are treating it like how some reacted when the Dodgers traded Lo Duca. They look at it more with their heart than their head.

The Angels are dealing with Boras. They're going to have to pay top dollar. Good luck with that.

430 I will try

The Angels have gamers.

The Dodger youth just play games.

Hustle, grit, teamwork.

Call of Duty, Grand Theft, Rock Band.

One group has a display for its rings

The other has a display for its PS3.

Scioscia does beard growth checks

Torre trims the beards.

One team gets it

The other does not.

439 The way their division shakes out, as long as they keep their core together, it should be okay even if they lose Texeira and have to play Juan Rivera at 1B.

I do think that they will push harder to resign him if they don't win it all this year.

All this Plaschkese is making me paranoid.

437
Perhaps the same person commented on the ESPN.com article:

"Dumb move by Angels. Kotchman will be the better player in a couple of years....easily."

Even if Kotchman will be better in a couple of years (and of course that's debatable), this is clearly a win now move for the Angels.

I haven't seen the Baseball Prospectus odds, but I'm going to put the Angels chances of making the playoffs at 100.2%, and this move clearly makes them better in 2008.

434 Yeah, that was just my impression of what Plaschke will write tomorrow.

I think Angel fans should be happy with this deal. But the context over there is totally different than the Dodgers'. They've got Vlad for only so many more good years. They've got a confluence of good, young, cheap pitching, some of which they'll have to surrendur, starting with K-Rod. There is a clear goal associated with the trade. This is not a team on the rise. It has risen. It just needs to break through to the next level.

We're not where they are. I'm not against a move that would help get us into the playoffs, but only a low-cost type of deal that doesn't make us worse in the future. The Angels might be worse in the future because of this deal, but that doesn't matter as much to them because they have a realistic shot at winning it all this year. We have a realistic shot at being very lucky, but probably not.

The Angels have gamers.

The Dodger youth just play games.

3-5 odds says that's how Plaschke opens his article if the Dodgers lose and the Angels win tonight.

Which would be a better deal (and I do think adding $4M to the payroll would be a detriment to the Dodgers).

Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek or James Loney (who does have an extra year of control plus will not be arbitration eligible until after next season) and let's say Scott Elbert

The Angels have Guerrero, Anderson, Garland and Rodriguez coming off the books next year right? I think they'll have the ability to lock-up Tex long term if they want to.

Okay, the Faux Plaschke bits are all quite clever but it's making me want to cry. Stop!

As I said above, I think this is a good trade for both teams. The Angels are clearly a WS contender this season and Texeira pushes them closer; if they don't/can't resign him next year and don't succeed in the post-season this year they may regret it but for now it looks solid. And the Braves, who were going to lose Tex anyway and had to get something in return for him, got a first baseman for several years plus a very good pitching prospect. Both teams win, IMHO.

Do Boras players ever re-sign with the incumbent team without having to first fire Boras?

It should be noted that Kotchman and Pujols are the best defensive first basemen in baseball, and it's not even close.

It's an upgrade for the Angels but it's not as big as it appears on the surface, especially if Kotchman starts walking again.

The Jeff Kent article made Deadspin.

http://deadspin.com/5030685/jeff-kent-a-good-jerk-is-hard-to-find

Now which one of you guys is "Innings Eater"?

446 I agree, and the Dodgers also would have less chance of re-signing Tex in the off-season than the Angels, I think.

452 There you go with that "D" word again...

=)

450 Marek is a 24 year old in AA, he's not much more than a throw in.

449 They are going to take Vlad's option (or try to get an extension), I think Garrett is gone, Garland is a maybe only because Adenhart might not be ready and Escobar is certainly a question mark but you will probably have to do something like $42M/3 years for Garland so I don't know, and K-Rod, well I just don't think they can let him go.

452 The Braves traded for a guy who isn't even ambulatory? Who is running that ship?

I don't think it's that bad of a deal for the Angels at first glance. Isn't a 25 year old relief pitcher in double A not that big of a deal? As far as I can tell, Kotchman is up for arb at the end of this year. So they lose a year of him at a reasonable price (but definitely not on the cheap).

459 Oh he would have been fairly inexpensive, he's not entering Ryan Howard, Prince Feilder territory. I would be surprised if Kotchman makes 1/3 of what Teixera gets per year.

406 That reminds me of a SNL sketch...

Marek isn't that exciting I guess, but he's solid. Sickels had him as Angels 9th best prospect this year and he was their 5th best pitching prospect last year in BP, for what that's worth. I wonder what the Dodger equivalent would be (or was Meloan the Dodger equivalent?) Cory Wade was 25 and in AA when he made the Dodgers this year.

452 I think its a big aquisition for the Halos. Not only will Tex more than likely outproduce Kotchman from here forward, I think Vlad starts getting more pitches in the strike zone now that pitchers won't want to face Tex with a runner on 1st. Its the whole Manny-Ortiz conundrum, you have to pick your poison now when facing the Angels.

463
Since when does Vlad care about pitch location? :)

Per Jayson Stark's story on ESPN.com

The Angels didn't ask for a window to negotiate an extension with Teixeira. But it's expected that they'll make a massive effort to sign him to a long-term deal, after trading away their every-day first baseman, and a player they were especially fond of, in Kotchman. Teixeira is a Scott Boras client, however. And early rumblings are that his initial asking price will be in the neighborhood of 10 years, $230 million.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3510042

you have to pick your poison now when facing the Angels.

I choose Jeff DaVanon. Is he still around?

465 He is not 230mil good. Boras must have been the source on this article.

465 - Like I said, "Good luck with that!"

464 Vlad might occasionally get away with hitting bad pitches, but if you constantly have to pound the strike-zone against him, scary things will likely ensue. Seriously has Vlad ever had offensive protection in his career?

Tonight's lineup:

Pierre, LF
Kemp, CF
Ethier, RF
Kent, 2B
Loney, 1B
Blake, 3B
Berroa, SS
Ardoin, C
Johnson, RHP

If Andruw Jones gets $18 million a year, I don't see why Tex couldn't get $23.

470 Jon just loves to cheer everyone up.

:)

neighborhood of 10 years, $230 million.

Peter Angelos, please pick up a white courtesy phone. Peter Angelos, please pick up the white courtesy phone.

471 Andruw Jones got only 2 years, you are talking about paying someone 20+ until they are 38 years old.

473 - The Yankees have Giambi coming off the books.

420 - I am on my posterior laughing at that.

There's virtually no chance, as far as I can tell, that Vlad doesn't finish his career in Anaheim - or at least effectively finish his career in Anaheim.

K-Rod, I think, will end up resigning for less than what he's talking about right now.

Anderson is definitely gone, a la Salmon.

Moreno can probably get away with raising ticket prices if the Angels play in the World Series again; definitely if they win. I think they've got to be considered the AL favorites right now.

Batting Ethier third will pay off tonight. Mark it down.

461 I was about to type that same thought. :)

472 - http://www.ugoto.com/video_taxi__what_does_a_yellow_light_mean.html

477 - K-Rod sounds to me like he is definitely going to the highest bidder. You think he'll give Anaheim a discount?

470 - over/under on Martin coming into this game, fifth inning?

479 Wait...sporky is female right? So I can do the :) and still keep my man card?

Jason Johnson should be on the same teams as Ryan Langherhans.

I've been saving that joke since Saturday.

I think it could have waited longer.

No Jonesy - Knock me over with a feather.

{{spit-take}} 10 years, $230 million! Ay caramba.

--

Yay, Ethier 3rd.

481 - I don't think he'll give Anaheim a discount. I just don't think there'll be a big market for him, and he'll end up resigning at less than what he wants. But it's still going to be buku bucks.

469 No offense, but hasn't lineup protection been shown to be a fallacy?

480 - Slow down!

Sorry, I can never resist on that.

487 - unless Rivera retires and the Yankees decide they need an All Star Closer.

When did this "smileys are not manly" thing kick in?

470. I was thinking this morning that Martin looked like he could use a day off. I guess Torre thought so too.

491 - couple days ago.

491 :) are good anytime.

487 - They'll probably have to decide between K-Rod and Tex, at least. Both figure to start at $15M / year.

488 Kind of like "clutch hitting."

So I take it the Dodgers aren't planning on calling up a SS and DL-ing Nomar? Or are they waiting for trade possibilities? (He says, ominously.)

493 Is there a grandfather clause?

496 Oh, then I'll stay out. Get back in that can, worms!

I'm guessing Nicolette Sheridan cougared Martin last night, so he had a right to be tired.

486 It's only $5m/year more than we're paying Andruw... but yeah, that's a lot of cash.

491 I've always hated smileys, because I remember the 70s. You don't just go decorating things with smiley faces. I realize that as "emoticons" they have a purpose for the sarcasm-challenged, so I've used them a time or two. But then I always feel like I might as well go whole hog and put hearts instead of dots over the 'i.'

Matt Cain is licking his chops.

Martin should have signed his long term deal.

488 Their is no study in the world that could ever convince me that lineup protection is a fallacy. Pitchers, catchers and coaches know a given line-up and execute a gameplan against it. Sure in lopsided games it probably goes out the door but if a great hitter is coming to the plate in a close game, the opposition will do just about anything it can to prevent that player from being the difference maker. When great hitters are back to back in a lineup, the opposition doesn't have that luxury.

502 - Just put a baseball cap on the guy. (-:P

502
You didn't strike me as emotionally challenged.

BP is fueling the Manny-to-LA fire. Kill me now.

I don't see where this trade is all that great for the Angels. They're already guaranteed to make the postseason, so Teixeira doesn't help in that regard. Basically, they're trading to have his bat during the three to 19 games which comprise the playoffs. Which are a crapshoot anyway. The difference between his bat and Kotchman's is worth, what, one-twentieth of a playoff win? One-tenth, maybe?

It increases their chances of success in the playoffs rather infinitesimally. The reason you make big deadline trades is so you can make the playoffs, not necessarily so you can succeed once you get there.

Oh black hole in the 7-1 spots I have missed you so much. Its only been a couple of weeks but we're glad to see you back.

507 Part of the reason I find ManRam amusing is because he's not on my favorite team. If he went to the Dodgers, he'd grow old fast...

Tonight's Dodger Line-up, as Told Through Emoticons (for dzzrt):

:-(, LF
:-D, CF
:-D, RF
:-|, 2B
8-), 1B
(:-)~, 3B
:-/, SS
:-|, C
:'(, RHP

511 is the awesomest thing ever.

Baseball America sends me a Prospect Update every day. All year long they refused to show Carlos Santana as a prospect. Today he shows up for the Indians. He struck out 3 times in his debut.

511 Considering the alternatives, I'd argue that RF should be X-D. 1B and 3B are awesome.

That's a lot of effort, underdog.

Very, very nice!

511 That is hilarious! =P

511
I love Loneys

511 512
Just in time for the Olympics!

MLB Gameday now has interstitial ads.

514 Xs for eyes should be reserved for Jones.

The Chinese Government has banned FJM.

http://tinyurl.com/5cv56v

Ah, I forgot about X-D ! Ah well.

Yeah, I had to search hard for a bearded emoticon for Casey.

sometimes Kent can be >:-{

That was great

521 Heh.

wouldn't it make sense at this point to make a splash that actually helps us? Something like Laroche and Eithier for Bay, just DFA Jones...might as well cut our losses with him...

Once again the Score Bard has enlightened us all with his thoughts on the Tex trade.

508 - think of it like this, if the playoffs are a crap shoot, the Angels' move is an attempt to load the dice.

I still don't buy the crap shoot argument, but I doubt I'm going to change any minds on that.

Micah Owings optioned to AAA

504 Sorry that came off as a bit harsh, but if the study is dealing with rates rather than totals, then the study is flawed IMO. OBP, SLG etc. would stay at similar levels (in fact may improve) for great hitters in bad lineups. But run production which ultimately wins games, would definitely be affected. If Bonds had a Tex-type hitter behind him during the early 2000's do you think he would've been walked as much as he was? I know that walking is a positive for an offensive player but it certainly took away from HR and run producing totals for Bonds and led to lesser talented hitters batting with the game on the line.

527 Even after the St. Louis Cardinals?

530 - until August, the Cards were the best team in baseball, they had a historically terrible September, and then returned to form.

521. That's interesting. My guess though, is that it isn't so much a ban on FJM, as it is a ban on every website. Instead of having a list of websites they block, they instead probably have a list of websites that they don't block. I'm pretty comfortable thinking that the chinese govt could care less about FJM, and that they are probably being blocked like dodgerthoughts.com is.
vr, Xei

531
After July 26, the Cardinals were 58-42, 1.5 games behind the Mets for best record in the NL. They still had 61 games left.

They were pretty bad all the way through the end of the season in 2006, finishing 25-36. For the season, they only scored 19 more runs than their opponents and were pretty much every bit the team their 83-78 record represented.

528 - In all seriousness, isn't his bat too valuable to send down?

The playoffs are a crapshoot due to the small sample size of games. There are still teams that are favored to win, but there is just a ton of variance on the possible results. 55% vs 45%, first to win 4 games is a lot different than 55% vs 45%, first to win 1000 games.
vr, Xei

535 - I understand the argument, I just don't accept it. It is a head-to-head competition of the best teams in a particular sport. The team that performs better wins. That's not a crap shoot, that's sport.

533 - my memory seems to be faulty. They had some injury issues in the last half/third/quarter of the season, no?

Oh no, did I drive out Ratt? :-(

--

I may be going to a movie after work in which case shall catch the game on Tivo, which is probably better anyway. Can fast forward through all the Omar Vizquel triples off JJJ. Otherwise, see you folks in a couple.

536. Perhaps you are just arguing against the terminology then.
vr, Xei

511 That is great!

I have a question. If the Dodgers pick up Penny's option, can they trade him in the offseason?

534

Unless he is being sent down to be a position player

Angels/Lackey off to a great start today.
vr, Xei

541
Yes.

Michael Young is a gamer! He's starting tonight even after he fractured a finger last night.

For once I actually want to watch a Cubs game.

Falkenborg was a Cardinal in 2006. It's a sign!

Haven't seen anyone mention how aesthetically pleasing this trade is.
The Angels gave a good young 1b and a non-impact pitching prospect for a legitimate and streaky switch hitting power hitter.

They could do this because they've drafted well over the last several years.
They could do this because they have the best record in baseball.
A calculated risk to push for the title.
This is what you do.
Offer arb to Tex, he declines. You get 2 more draft picks to ease the blow. And you have confidence in your draft skills. Maybe you sign him in the winter, aided by hopefully more revenue form a championship run.

Atlanta made a push last year and failed. The Georgia kid turned down a l-t deal since he's a Boras guy and must test the market. When it was not happening in Atl, they weighed deals versus two draft picks. They needed more immediate help, so they took Kotchman as a legitimate 1b with reasonable skills and contract.

The Dodgers are not in this class. To give up Loney and a B prospect makes no sense since you're busy being mediocre at .500.

Nice deal all around.

545
It's that Gaucho tenacity.

What? You say 20 beers is enough. I'll show you, hand me five more cups!

Me scared of this cliff with jagged rocks at the bottom? No way! I'll prove it by getting drunk and start wrestling by it.

Jayson Stark:

>>But with Furcal tentatively expected to return in early September, the Dodgers don't seem to be focused on acquiring a front-line shortstop. Instead, they've been inquiring about utility men/bats off the bench who can fill in at short for a couple of weeks. One name they apparently were shot down on this week: Toronto's Marco Scutaro.<<

i.e. another Berroa/Ozuna

550 Well... Hu else is there?

549 Does UCSB have a good academic reputation or is it just a party school? Perhaps I should've asked that question here before I filled out my SIR.

550
I just don't get it.

552
I would suggest you bring along a copy of "How to Cure Alcohol Poisoning for Dummies."

2003-2008
Pitcher A: 1178 IP, 80-55, 2.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 123 ERA+
Pitcher B: 1145 IP, 78-56, 2.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 117 ERA+

Pitcher A is destined to be the belle of the free agent ball this offseason. Pitcher B won't be a FA until after 2009.

A is CC Sabathia, and B is John Lackey. Lackey is two years older, and that is certainly a factor, but it seems like his name isn't brought up enough when talking about the best pitchers in the game.

553 We can never have too many short stops. Have you forgotten 2006 already? Furcal, Betemit, Izturis, Lugo, etc etc etc.

The Angels needed a legitimate #3 or #4 hitter to back Vlad and Kotch wasn't it.

Now you can have Rivera, Hunter behind both of 'em.

It was a need.

Kotchman, while maybe having future upside, was league average kinda guy...and 1b should be an easy position to replace if you don't sign Tex.

552
Good school and they are actually make it a lot harder to get in. They want to crack down on the party image.

A lot of good that is doing. My best friend got his side mirrors knocked off 4 times this year.

539 I think that's right. It's the term "crapshoot" that bugs me too. That word implies that any outcome is equally likely, or at least it seems that way to me. IN this case, that would mean that any team in the tournament has as good a chance as any other to win the thing. Which has to be false.

To say that any team COULD win is very different, and a much weaker statement. Really, all it is the flip-side of saying that any team that does NOT make the playoffs canNOT win the World Series, which is true, but only in a trivial sense (i.e., by definition).

To point to a few notably weak teams that had charmed runs is not proof of a crapshoot. Does anyone know of a study that looks at measures of team quality (not just W-L record, of course) as predictors of WS Champions? The study would have to account for team health when the playoffs start, and maybe discount pitching depth in favor of the top 3 starters. Matchups would matter, and so on. It seems do-able. You'd never get a perfect predictive model, and of course, unlikely things CAN happen in small samples, but I bet a huge predictor of a champion is the quality of the team (as demonstrated over the course of the season).

555 Sabathia has gotten way better the last couple of years though.

559 There are three factors that have been shown to contribute to playoff success.

A strikeout heavy rotating
Strong defense
A good closer

525 . I'm for that (something on the line of Ethier and LaRoche for Bay) or stand pat.

561 - Get Furcal and Hu in our starting lineup, and we're there.

561. Those all sound reasonable, but what was the nature of those studies? Are they multivariate, or just bivariate correlations?

548 - that's pretty fair. To that let me add that the Angels have at least a decent minor league first baseman in Kendry Morales, and perhaps a better one still at AA Arkansas in Mark Trumbo. There's some organizational depth there, though my tendency is to assume that Kendry will be the starter at first next year if they don't re-sign Teix, something I regard as all but a certainty given his expressed preference for playing on the east coast.

564 Here's the article:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5541

560
So has Lackey. ERA+ 2006-2008:

Lackey 139
CC 138

Only Webb & Santana have been better.

http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/48pk

I lowered the bar to 350 IP to include Chad, #8 :)

561 - funny, those things probably also contribute heavily to regular season success too.

Check out those Robb Quinlan-led Angels tonight.

Angels/Red Sox are in the bottom of the 6th in 1:15.

569 - interesting game, that.

566
Ending the year hot doesn't make a whit of difference, for example, nor does having a veteran club, or a smallball offense.

569 - snerk. They're winning because Lackey is doing something he hasn't done in his career against the Sawx: posting zero frames. He's retired 15 of 16 going into the bottom of the sixth.

573 - 60 pitches after 5.2. Amazing.

504 When you say that no study could convince you that lineup protection is a myth, do you mean

(1) you haven't read one that convinced you, or
(2) there is no evidence that you would take as convincing?

Because while the first might be a fair thing to say, the second is willful ignorance.

Part of the problem here might be the distinction between how pitchers/coaches INTEND to deal with unprotected vs. protected sluggers on the one hand, and whether it works, on the other.

And within the "whether it works" of course is the subquestion of "how often?" Occasionally, it might make sense to walk Barry Bonds 4 times, but enough to make it a general policy? Enough to make it a guide to 25-man roster composition?

The point you made later about the effect being swamped by irrelevant cases (that it may look irrelevant because for most plate appearances, it is) is probably right, but it sort of makes the point against belief in protection.

The studies I've seen were pretty smart - taking all sorts of things into consideration. But, like the crapshoot point above, it is not incompatible to say that lineup protection generally doesn't matter but that every once in a while, it DOES matter who is on deck (and what the game situation is).

567- Hendrickson at 79 still seems high.

Wouldnt a strikeout heavy rotation cancel out the need for a good defense?

566 Thanks. Unfortunately, I let my BP subscription lapse.

577 Even the most strikeout heavy team needs to get the other 18 outs somehow.

This game on FSN West is a good one.

I don't like the term "crapshoot" either. It means that all eight teams go into the playoffs have the same chance to win, which has to be not true. Sure, luck is a bigger factor because of small sample size and because one single play can have a huge factor on a series. But if it were a crapshoot, then wouldn't it be highly likely that the NL West would have more than one WS win since the current division format came about. Also, the AL West has only one WS win too. The Braves would have won more than one WS in 14 years and even the Oakland As should have more than one series win if the playoffs are a crapshoot. And if it is a crapshoot, then why do the AL East teams, the highest payroll teams, have so many WS wins.

It seems that any given year, a team can go on a run and win the WS, but to call it a crapshoot or to say over a period of time any team can win the playofs, it doesn't seem correct to me.

But if it were a crapshoot, then wouldn't it be highly likely that the NL West would have more than one WS win since the current division format came about. Also, the AL West has only one WS win too.

I think the total number of "expected" World Series wins is hard to determine.

Does "crapshoot" imply there's an equal chance for all teams? I don't know enough about gambling .

583 - in craps, there are 32 possible combinations of numbers that can come about (two six sided dice), but only 11 numerical outcomes. you have more chances of getting a 7 than any other number because there are so many combinations that will get you to seven. Whereas there is only one combination to get 2 and one combination to get 12.

There is an equal chance that any of the 32 possible combinations will appear, but there is a higher likelihood of 7, 6 and 8 hitting then there is of numbers further out.

NPUT

584 So... the answer is "no"?

583 I thought it did.

584 For a team it is, but for an entire division, isn't it more quantifiable? Maybe I'm looking at this wrong, but it seems that those two divisions should have more WS wins than one if the playoffs were a crapshoot.

I'm not much of a mathematician or trained scholar or anything, so I can't argue or interpret data or statistics very informedly, but it seems to me if Barry Bonds had been backed up by someone like David Ortiz he would have been intentionally/unintentionally walked somewhat less. It seems to me the problem with data interpretation or statistical interpretation is that it tends not to be completely practical to quantify all of the real factors that go into causing an event. People tend to have an intuitive understanding of that, hence, "No amount of data is gonna convince me!"

583 , 584 I thought wrong.

581 Since MLB went to the present playoff format in 1995, the team with the better regular season record has gone 44-43 in postseason series.

The team with the best regular season record has won the World Series twice (2008 Red Sox, 1998 Yankees).

583 fanerman
A crapshoot makes it sound like the playoffs might as well be played on an APBA board. I still have mine in my garage from when I was a teenager.

Lackey's moving in to elite status in Boston right now.