I could have sworn the ad said BoxSuckBabes. I need an eye exam.

In the eighth at Fenway.

to answer fanerman's question...

crap shoot, as it is generally used, means that the outcome is entirely random. or at least that's my understanding of the vernacular. you could draw a better parallel to an actual crap shoot if you were to say that the team with home field advantage through the playoffs, and the better starting rotation is closer to 6, 7, or 8, while the wild card teams are closer to 2 or 12. So the better teams are favored. But then that discounts the whole random argument, I think.

but in craps, the previous roll has absolutely no determinative effect on the current roll, which has no determinative effect on the next. It is entirely possible to roll a 7 on a come out bet 50 times in a row (and make a lot of people a lot of money). it is also entirely possible to crap out on two tosses.

it is really a bad analogy that sounds cool.

[crap shoot] you guys are way over analyzing something that is mostly just an expression.

From the last thread...

Since MLB went to the present playoff format in 1995, the team with the better regular season record has gone 44-43 in postseason series.

The team with the best regular season record has won the World Series twice (2008 Red Sox, 1998 Yankees).

3 For what it's worth, I've always taken the "crapshoot" analogy to mean that any team that gets in the playoffs has a chance of winning. Perhaps not an equal chance, but a respectable chance nonetheless. It's always seemed to be a fair enough assessment to me.

I think everyone is forgetting the biggest news of the day:

Scott Podsednik is now on the DL for the Rockies.

4 This is Dodger Thoughts. "overanalyze" is what we do.

A crapshoot makes it sound like the playoffs might as well be played on an APBA board. I still have mine in my garage from when I was a teenager.

Humbug summarizes the two Texeira trades nicely. LOL

sorry, the (semi-)professional gambler in me loves this kind of stuff.

just be glad they didn't ask a legal question.

11
Do you want to evaluate my disciplinary action that I filed against my cat?

12 - heh.

In the ninth at Fenway.

Lackey has thrown 96 pitches through 8 interesting innings, do you bring him back for the ninth?

(yes, i am aware of how a dumb that question is)

Is ESPN going to switch over to the Red Sox/Angel game for the ninth?

Related: what's with interesting games and Fenway lately? It's not exactly a pitcher's park..

7 Bigger than the Farve Fax™?

So, is tall Chris Young going to do the Bums a favor tonight? Coz with Johnson vs Cain, we might need some help. Kevin Towers said recently, to paraphrase, it's a good night in the NL West when you have an off day because there is a good chance you will make up some ground. We really should have won last night... but then we really should have lost Kuroda start against AZ, and I'll take that win over last night's loss.

Oh goodie. ESPN is going to break away from an exciting World Series of Poker repeat to show the ninth. Yah.

8 lim x-> mundane (over-analyze / x) ≈ pedantic

4. larry slimfast
[crap shoot] you guys are way over analyzing something that is mostly just an expression.

The problem, as so often, is that different people mean different things when using that expression. I think KG16 has it just right.

Some people mean "anything can happen."
Others mean "any outcome is equally likely."

The first is (trivially) true.
The second is obviously false.

But most importantly, the term is vague because of those two possible interpretations, so it's worth asking someone what they mean when they use it.

How many arguments, to say nothing of sports arguments, occur because those arguing are talking past each other, using one term to mean two (or more) different things?

As for me, I'll take precision over vagueness, thank you.

Bottom of the ninth at Fenway.

Of course, the one time I actually wish ESPN was showing a Red Sox game and they're showing the rerun of the Home Run Derby. Whoop de doo.

19 Oh cool! Never mind me then, and thanks for the tip. Switching away from ESPN News then.

Ron Artest will be traded to the Rockets on August 14th, when they are able to deal Donte Greene.

Probable ESPN headline:

"Red Sox Make History"

one out.

pedroia!

Ahhhhhhhhhh. I guess that was my fault then? Or ESPN's.

Figures.

Pedroia spoils the party. Boston rejoices. Until they realize they're down by 6. Make that 4.

youk!

no longer interesting in Boston, now just a beat down.

25 - Yao, McGrady, and Artest? It's about time to break up the Western Conference, isn't it?

I read in the previous thread that now Indians prospect Carlos Santana had three strike outs in his first game within the Indians minor league system. Is it wrong to cheer that Santana chokes so he doesn't bite us in the tuss 5 years from now?

29 To think that you had any effect at all on whether the Red Sox got a hit is pretty arogant.

More good news from tonight's lineup, Andruw sits again tonight!

Also, to say that ESPN had any effect at all on that is almost dietizing ESPN.

Andy LaRoche is not in the lineup for Las Vegas tonight.

That is all.

35 So Jon was right ... for now at least.

Andre Ethier vs. Matt Cain:

10 for 16

However, all hits were singles. And he's batting third tonight.

21 I would prefer not to engage in baseball conversation with someone that actually thinks that any playoff "outcome is equally likely." I seriously doubt anyone here thinks that.

Based on exit poll interviews, 40 has predicted a world series winner.

37 I just checked the wire and the first name I see is "LaRoche...... on DL with muscle strain." As in Adam.

34 - Is that attitude really necessary?

37 Trade, or callup back to the Dodgers?

41 Boston Red Sox?

How many other Division contenders have a clean up hitter hitting .249 and 43 RBI and the Manager thinking out of the present?

44
Or just not playing for some reason. I don't know, but I think it's at least "kinda weird" that he hasn't played yet.

34 Uh, it's not I literally thought that, but it's just a reference to the nerves that come about jinx possibilities when it comes to no-hitters. I think we're all a little jinx-conscious around these parts. And the entire concept of jinxing is both arrogant and illogical, but that doesn't seem to stop the existence of Rule 9 on DT.

46 I'm still sticking with "Joe Torre is being really progressive and paying attention to Kent's PrOPS".

It helps me get through the day.

Didn't notice 'til now that Adam Everett was actually DFA'd today. So if the Dodgers are still looking for cheap SS insurance after he clears waivers, that's another possibility, as the team stockpiles mediocre SS's. (But at least he can field better than Berroa.)

35 Yes, for everyone who thought that Jones' pinch hit last night meant an immediate return today - you were wrong. When Torre finally can bring himself to hurt a PVL's feelings for good reason, he does seem to stick with it for a little while anyway. I'm sure Jones will make appearances, though.

Now who exactly would be sitting LaRoche every day in Vegas? OK, DeWitt is getting 3rd, and I guess Hu is doing so well at 2nd (or is he SS there?) that they want to keep playing him. But still, who would be calling the shots on LaRoche? Colletti, local Vegas manager, some organization Director who gets his cues from Colletti and Torre?

36 dietizing

Good one.

The Pee Wee Chat transcript is up now, btw.

http://tinyurl.com/6m79pl

I hadn't seen the first question 'til now:
>>toby111213: Q: How was the earthquake for you?
Young: It was my alarm clock. I was in bed sleeping and at first I thought it was construction because they're working across the street. LaRoche was running through the house screaming and hollering. But this wasn't my first rodeo, so I never really got out of bed.<<

So LaRoche is his roommate? Maybe we can ask DY where Andy is!

53
LaRoche is in LA with Young...? I knew something weird was going on...

Nomar took BP and is available to pinch hit.

46 D'Backs are having a guy who has a .239 BA, and a .305 OBP batting in the 2nd spot. (Chris Young) Does that count?

The 150:1s are looking to have a good day as the Red Sox have lost and the Yankees are falling further behind the O's.

Pertaining to the "Crap shoot" discussion...
Has anyone here read this book? http://tinyurl.com/5cnwgg
Has a fascinating discussion of Maris hitting 61 HRs and how it would have been expected by purely random chance to happen by somebody at some point. It's only one chapter but the whole book throws a pretty twist on the outcome of baseball games.

54 Vegas team is scheduled to go on the road starting tomorrow in Oklahoma, maybe they just told him to hang out in LA for a few days and then he can travel with the team or on his own.

59
But why treat him differently from DeWitt...?

55 I guess baseball activities started a little earlier.

LaRoche did not play last night either despite it being an extra inning game. Looks like to me that LaRoche will not play until Thursday, when he will either be in LA playing for the Dodgers or will be with someone else has part of a trade. I think they want to have the roster spot open, and that is why Nomar has not gone on the DL. Given his body, age and history and the actual injury, strikes me that something is up.

60 DeWitt was sent down a day earlier, no? And was probably informed even earlier than that, so it was early enough for him to join Vegas for their current series. Just guessing, though.

60 Who knows, maybe they didn't decide to activate Sweeney until Sunday morning. Maybe Andy had some personal stuff to deal with. Or maybe he was going to leave after the game on Sunday and then Nomar got hurt so decided to hold off until they knew how bad it was.

Its probably some combo of all that.

55 = In addition, Torre called Nomar earlier today and asked him if he wanted to go on the DL. Nomar said no.

62 Its been reported by an eyewitness (Delwyn Young) that Andy LaRoche was still in LA as of 11:42 a.m. PDT.

59 -- I bet that DeWitt and LaRoche, like Kershaw when he was demoted, were both told to take a couple days off before reporting to the minors, but DeWitt being a "ballplayer," said "No, I got to go help my new team right away."

Pee Wee and Andy are roommies! I am guessing that Weird Game lives alone.

Did the Angels get rid of Rex Hudler?

Short and Tall Chris Youngs will battle it out tonight in San Diego.

I think that one of them is getting married in LA and the other is the best man.

Guess the guys on the team like Andruw Jones well enough. I will now make a crazy prediction.

Jeff Kent gets two hits tonight.

70 - Bob is ALL over that!

I don't know if this was covered last night, but yesterday was the first time this season that Sweeney and Jones had an RBI in the same game, and the second time this season they both a hit in the same game.

69 - I think Rex Hudler has been shifted to radio only.

The Angels alternate Hudler/Physioc and Markas/Gubicza on TV.

Heh.

Vin: At 3rd is the Veteran Rich Arliria. At Shortstop the even more veteran Omar Visquel.

part of me wishes that Pee Wee and LaRoche and Kemp and Loney could all live in a house together for a reality show. Ethier could take them out for dinner. Sweeney could be in charge of cleaning the house.

If Fox still owned the team, this would already be reality.

Texiera going to the Angels mean the Dodgers wont be selling their souls to get him. That's a good thing in my book. Honestly, I don't see how he is an upgrade for the Angels.

Looks like pitchers are going to get the high strike tonight.

21 3rd basemen in the last 4 years? Makes me almost long for Beltre.

Wow. Great play by Casey.

Nice pick, Zoot!

Randy Winn has stolen 20 bases this season and been caught once.

78 Heh. Yeah, or -- Earlier here someone (Toy?) suggested an animated series, animated versions of the young guys - I can see it done 70s Hanna Barbera style.

I wonder if the Giants will ever realize that Molina is not only not a good cleanup hitter, but not a good hitter in general.

Probably not.

Giants have a campaign:

What Would a Gamer Do?

The Giants announcers just predicted a shutout today for Cain? Or did I mis-hear that?

87 - They rejected "The Giants: The Gamiest Team in the West!"

85 NO! Like ProStars:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0149510/

Tagline:
It's all about helping kids.

perfect.

85 - And yesterday someone wanted to match muppets with players! What a show business crowd.

Is Ethier batting 3rd tonight because Torre trusts me, or is it because he thought the kid was due after screwing around with him the past week?

89 you've just got to marinate them right

Well, the Casey Blake trade is working currently right now.

79 - he's got better power and at the moment better plate discipline. But I'm not sure I like this deal over the longer haul. The Angels have made several Win Now moves in the last couple moves, one of which is a flat-out bust (Gary Matthews, Jr.).

92 - I think it's about the match-up.

50 I wouldn't mind seeing the Dodgers pick up Everett. IIRC, the defensive metrics rated him very well when he was in Houston. He can't hit a lick, but neither can Berroa.

92 Obviously, it's because Ethier's name came up when he spun the big line up wheel in his office.

I am 100% positive that there's a wheel. Kent's name is written in the nail through the center that allows it to spin (axis? I'm stupid)

That's a good error.

92 - The matchup (10 for 16 vs. Cain) and the fact that Martin and Nomar are both not starting.

91 I think some of us, myself included, are clearly regressing. Soon I'll be wearing pajamas with feet and ordering things from the backs of comic books.

Get out there Joe!

You don't run on the Molina brothers.

Well, that sucked. Better luck next time Bison.

He was safe, but it was a very good throw and play, and thats the way it goes.

Took a perfect throw and a bad call to get him.

That sucks.

11 for 17.

Ethier now hitting .647 against Cain.

Too bad Bison was thrown out. Ethier owns Cainster!

101 between my basketball team giving way my favorite player, and the Dodgers doing, um, whatever it is they think they're doing it, I'm almost fully regressed. I might try to buy some Garbage Pail Kids cards tomorrow.

but yay! Spaced is out on American DVD!

Hit number one for Kent. That one was due.

A good call and we score already.

105 106 - Replay shows he was out. Tag hit the uniform, but the uniform is part of the body.

110 also proof: that awesome spelling and grammar.

Looks like UCLA and USC can wear their home jerseys for their game this year.

Ugh... opportunity went down the popper.

anyone notice how TINY Matt Kemp's leads are at first base? How do coaches not notice this and fix it?

Dang, nice rope by Weird Game

Though we didn't score, we will get some more at bats from this inning. But we have that large black hole. And Johnson got hit hard a few times.

113 Obviously, Kemp should try to steal 2nd without any clothes on.

I thought Kemp was safe, that he was never tagged, but the Giants announcers claimed the tag nipped the bill of the cap. Whatever, it was close, but another close play, like last nights series of them, and they would be up 1-0. Oh well, them's the breaks.

110 Hallux, I (heart) Spaced as well:
http://tinyurl.com/5qc825

115
Where did you see that?

122
Brian Dohn says it would happen for NEXT year's game.

121
I love the running Twit joke.

William H Macy is in da house! And he looks like a homeless dude. Maybe he's playing a homeless dude in a movie.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Desperate-housewife-runs-loose-at-Dodger-Stadium?urn=mlb,96663

Nicollette Sheridan(I know a couple of you were going gaga over her.) shaking hands with Russell Martin, who either has a full on blush, or is just came back from a hard day in the gym. And Sheridan wearing a I love Joe Torre's wife beater while Joe looks like a pimp.

Did you know that Rich Auerilla was once a stage manager for the New York Metropolitan Opera?

I'm liking the replays tonight; some great shots. First the replay showing the tag on Bison's steal. Then the overhead showing how far inside the strikout pitch was.

Actually he looks like Scruffy the Janitor.

127
Don't make me come over to wherever you may be at this moment.

122 123

Bob's right, its for next year's game. I read the title and assumed it'll be for this year's game, but I guess asking college football to actually move at anything other than a glacial pace is asking too much.

130 C'mon, I thought once Vin went down memory road...

121 I actually haven't seen it yet. I've been out of the county. But I love the people involved, so I was literally thinking about Spaced when I was, um, hanging out with 200k Kraut hippies last week and waiting.

Oh, and I was going to subscribe to GreenCine right before I left, before I realized that I'd be wasting 2 weeks, since I was gone.

On a 3rd note, I was in Monaco when Freddy Adu's transfer was finalized. They are not impressed. And AS Monaco stinks. That's how highly Americans are thought of. Based on their crap squad, they should be happy with Taylor Twellman.

131 So it will be the Bruins who get to wear their home jerseys from now on? (At least until 2009)

Filthy pitch.

133 Damn those snooty Monaco-ans(?) ! They should be honored to have our Freddy.

And cool, that promo code still applies for GreenCine free trial - dodgerthoughts. :-)

I hated the Count.

Is it decreed by the baseball Gods that Casey Blake will strikeout in his first AB of every game?

Man, I really don't like Greg Gibson.

136 I call them all French. Nice write up.

Is Greg Bison the ump under the mask tonight? Man, that's bush league. Somebody on the Umpire's staff should have said something and realized that its a conflict of interest.

141 Greg Gibson, yeah, the one who threw him out last night, and a long time ago as well. Greg Bison is Kemp's cousin.

What conflict of interest exists because Greg Gibson is the home plate umpire?

It's not like Gibson and Blake are related. They just had a disagreement. That happens.

I wonder if every umpire in the majors now has ejected Bobby Cox at least once?

142 He's like Roger Clinton, or Jesus Martinez

Wasn't Blake supposed to be horrid at defense?

Joe Torre should force Don Mattingly and become our first option for a pitch hitter.

P.S. Was all the talk about Blake's bad defense overblown? The guy looks like a wizard out there.

136 - citizens of Monaco are called Monégasque per Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco

Can the Giants stop showing Simers and his stupid Dell laptop?

146 - IIRC his D on balls hit down the line is supposed to be the problem.

I had a feeling that once Neuheisel replaced Dorrell the jersey deal would happen, I know Carroll has wanted to do it.

147 They're fine with French. Or maybe I didn't meet any citizens. Both are equally likely.

148
You really hate Dells that much?

148 I know, I seriously lost my appetite because of their Simers-Cam.

147 Yikes, I never would've come up with that one off the top of my head.

152

I had one for work myself, but got upgraded to a new HP last month.

Man, the Giants are old. Like really old.

Wasn't Aurilia supposed to be a good third baseman? :-)

153
You are not me.

Keep hitting it to Rich, Kemp.

154 - not to be an Apple shill, but MacBook Pro's rock. We have a his and hers pair.

Well, the black hole and then Kemp on as usual. Won't do much good.

Some really hard hit balls so far going for outs. Castillo, Pierre, Loney, Ethier all hit the ball ahrd with nothing to show.

159

My personal is a Powerbook, so I'm already sold.

Hey, how about that: ads promoting actual good young players!

Bison's got a 16 game hitting streak now, longest active streak in the majors.

Damn, even when Ethier goes out vs Cain, he rips it.

--
157 No, but you have the unfair advantage of having a cranium like an Easter Island statue. Or at least that's how it looks in the photo.

This series is making me want to break things. Might as well just leave the door unlocked, Bob.

What the heck was Winn thinking?

Nice backup Berroa, and poor decision there Winn.

Ardoin should've eaten that one.

Wow, that was horrible base running, throwing, and a smart play by Snipes. That was just ugly.

164 - Little-known fact: Bob actually is made of solid granite. His handshake is a killer.

Nice play by Berroa to make that out on the basepaths.

Attaboy Danny! He planned that the whole time....well, not really. Angel has been really good defensively.

Um...whatever that was.

A bad play turns into a good play. That's why we back up on all throws, kids.

Somehow we survive that inning.

Aaron Rowand has great facial hair. His GAMR must be second in the league to Blake.

Speaking of which, Linecum really does look like he's 13 after his recent haircut.

When are we going to see a Kershaw v. Lineicum game?

Kick save and a beauty. Now if he could control those rebounds...

Can we get Lincecum liquored up again like at the All-Star game?

How many K's is that for Blake since joining the Dodgers?

As much as it pains me to disagree with Vin, the whole 'takes time to adjust to NL pitching' think is poo poo.

err.. *way of thinking or *thing

take your pick

179

Especially since he already has faced Cain this season in an interleague game.

179 Blake could strike out for half his outs and I wouldn't care if he gets a lot of hits, too. I don't anticipate him hitting .350 for the Dodgers but the K's are less worrisome if a player also gets on base, too.

Vin seems to think that the Giants employ an Irish ballplayer named Rich O'Reeleeah...

Just turned on the game... has Johnson looked as sharp as the box score suggests?

Well, Johnson gave the Dodgers 5 very solid, shutout innings tonight. Can't ask for more than that. Do you pinch hit for him here or let him keep going to save the pen a little?

184 They hit him hard a few times (and he had one HBP) but he got some double plays and generally pitched well, with good control.

184 He has had some good defensive plays behind him from Blake and a good play by Loney. Winn helped him out trying to take third on a bad throw by Ardoin backed up nicely by Angel. He has been hitting the corners nicely though...

I thought that had a chance, coming off the bat.

Some more push-ups, Pierre.

At least we're done with the black hole for a little while.

One more out by Pierre, and he will lose the label of a "career .300 hitter".

I don't remember Jason Johnson being able to throw 95mph last time I saw him.

191- His OBP is still higher than Lou Brocks, so Colletti's okay with him.

Hmm. I hit the apostrophe key. I thought I did. It doesn't seem to be malfunctioning, though, now. So maybe I didn't. I meant to, anyway.

Three cheers for JJJ.

JJ! nice pitching!

193 - how is that even possible?

It's almost pointless to point out Pierre's flaws at this point. He is beloved by the GM and manager - he's going nowhere unfortunately.

Great performance from Johnson tonight, he's been huge.

Lou Brock didn't retire till he was forty.

197 Brock played for a very very long time.

Hmmm. What's the chance of Pierre making it to 3000 hits?

Bison power!

No interest in ManRam from any club per Stark's latest update.

Sweet AB for Bison.

There's our leadoff hitter.

That was a fantastic at bat by Bison. A series of great pitches from Cain.

That was not only a tremendous at bat but a great piece of hitting.

Wow, Andre knows he messed up there. Matt had that stolen.

Actually, looking it up, Brock's OBP was much better in his later years. His slugging dropped off as he aged, but his OBP only became consistantly good once he hit thirty.

The Dark Knight sure needs more advertising.

Bison Speed™!

Bison speed!

Attaboy, Matt. That was a great play by Molina. Crazy quick on a bad pitch to throw on.

Vin, 2 strikes, he has to look back.

201 - he's going to have a gig in the majors as long as he wants, so i'd say pretty good.

Olney.

Tremendous job by Andre.

Come on Kent! bring in the bacon!

Man, Andre gets high fives from all the guys for moving Kemp over, and he's still pissed off that he missed it on the ground out.

I hate this game sometimes. So unfair.

This damn game!

OMG! this is so not right.

Kent is going to kill the Gatorade after that! ME TOO!

I don't know if any stat measures this but Kent seems ridiculously unlucky this year.

Unlucky Jeff Kent. That ball was stung.

come on we cant get ONE run against the (second) worst team in the majors?

-2009 here we come

223 Somewhat, see BABIP (batting average on balls in play)

223

His BABIP is ridiculously low for his line drive percentage. He's been really unlucky this year.

Weird Games James!

Loney delivers! :)

There we go. We deserve that run.

Pretty.

223 BA on line drives? Percentage of line drives of balls hit? I feel like there is a stat that would illustrate someone's unluckiness in hitting...

LONEY! He picks up Kent! 1-0.

What are you swinging at?

"He hung that thing like an apple on a tree... like a letter from home!"
I love Vin Scully.

235 - sigh.

Doug Davis is not a pitcher I thought would be someone you would have to worry about making really serious Rule 9 violations.

Intriguing game in SD.

And why isn't this game on fangraphs.com?

Casey is having a terrible time picking up Cain's curve ball.

Fred Lewis!

OMG BOWA!!!

Only a gamer who is passionate and has great character gets a double there.

Thank goodness for Casey Beard.

Wow - great job Larry Bowa

Dear Larry Bowa:

Are you high?

Like, way, WAY high?

Dude!,
Andrew Shimmin

Oh, this is interesting.

Bowa sent Loney because the ball hopped out of play.

The kid didn't touch the ball.

Larry Bowa ... I'm speechless.

Another odd play for this odd series, but we'll take it. Fred Lewis sometimes plays LF like Fred Sanford out there. What's the ruling?

232

One's predicted BABIP is 13% (I think) higher than their line drive percentage. Kent has a LD% of 21.3% so his predicted BABIP is around .320. His actual BABIP is .253, which is crazy low.

What the hell was Bowa doing?

Knotty problem of baseball!

I don't watch the Giants other then playing us, but Fred Lewis has got to be the worst LF in baseball.

Score!

Man, Fred Lewis is Dr. Strangeglove II.

232 You can compare a player's BABIP with his line drive percentage to determine how lucky/unlucky he is. You should look at all his batted-ball data (ground ball%, flyball%, etc), but for most major leaguers, their BABIP should be .12 higher than their line drive percentage.

OMG, the Dodgers get a MASSIVE break on that call.

OUT OF PLAY! 2-0!

Meanwhile back in San Diego...

The Dbacks telecast has no qualms about jinxing an interesting game, with all the highlights and statistics they threw up at the Top of the 6th.

Still Top of the 6th there.

Out here, it looks like the Dodgers got the call! Score!

Wha?

The umpires are ruling that because Lewis knocked the ball into the stands, Loney would get two bases from the point of the deflection.

261 Thanks.

What is going on?

Bowa does what Torre should have done with Ethier's catch last night.

Wow, I'm going to be really impressed with Bowa if that's the case.

Are they really going to rule in favor of the Dodgers? Wow.

261 was for 260 , of course.

it's a 2-base error when the ball goes from the field to off the field. Loney was past second. Thus he scores. Easy call.

I'm waiting for Bochy to go nuts here. Please don't disappoint me.

2nd and 3rd is probably the fairest way to rule it. It looked like it inadvertently hit a fan. But props to the Dodger fans down there for actually staying out of the way as best they could. Weird play.

I just don't know how Bowa could judge the ball went off the field from his vantage point.

And is the top of the wall along the left-field foul line really out of play?

Wow.

You know, Fred Lewis shouldn't be awarded for bad fielding. And he won't.

269

Never touched a fan at all.

The Giants announcers are upset.

269 - But it didn't hit the fan, right? Not according to the replay, anyway.

Yeah, I think Bob and Alex are right, when the ball is put into the stands by the defending player, it's a 2-base error.

Martin is PH-ing.

270 - That's the question I want to know as well.

Haha, I know Baseball Tonight has a duty to report on intriguing games, but I wish that their 'alert' was more subtle.

270

It was a dumb wave in either way. If he knew it went out, Loney would have scored anyway. He just took an unnecessary risk, right?

Vin says it went over, and Fred Lewis had to reach and down the other side of the wall.

Shouldn't the ball have to actually touch something out of play for it to be considered out of play?

Hmm. I guess you're right, first couple of times I saw it I thought it deflected off that fan's hand. But apparently not.

Even if Bowa was playing three dimensional chess (I'm skeptical), it's still a hell of a bet to play, knowing there was no chance, no matter what that without the umpires' interceding that Loney could make it.

Didn't we have a play similar to this earlier this year? I forget who it was against but I think the secondbaseman caught a ball but then flipped into the stands.

I think it was against the Padres on a night Peavy pitched.

Paging Bob Timmerman.

I think the umpire either thought the ball hit the fan, or they won't let you reach into the stands for a live ball (non-pop up foul ball).

The Giants broadcast showed the replay from the 3rd base umpire's angle several times. From there it looked like it could have hit the hand of a fan. I think that's what the umpire saw.

Yeah, I definitely think Bowa was channeling The Windmill there, that was stupid either way. If it's a break, I won't feel too sheepish about it, given how wacky yesterday was.

281 It touched the air!

Let us not lose sight of the fact that Casey Blake just got a big clutch hit. I realize you can't teach clutch hitting, and that it's mostly a coincidence, but so far I feel like his bat fits in very well.

I don't know how Bowa could discern that the ball went out of play.

Chan Ho Park is in the game!

It looked like the ball might have actually bounced out of the fan's glove--but then, wouldn't they made it a dead ball, and runners at 2nd and 3rd? It most be that they ruled that Lewis knocked the ball, however slightly, into the stands, for a two-base error.

Now they are saying that the top of the wall is out of play.

I don't think Bowa can spell "discern," yet alone... discern, so probably not. Usually he is a solid 3rd base coach though. When he's not flipping out. And that was a nice clutch hit by The Beard.

Single by Giles off Davis.

If it had been ruled that the fan touched it, it would have been a double. It was ruled that it was deflected out of play so 2 bases from where they were. Bowa didn't catch it first, the umpire did. Bowa was reacting to the umpire.

Perfecto, no-no, etc is over in S.D.

283

That's what I was trying to say. It's like jumping out of a plane without a parachute knowing that some of the backyards in the neighborhood below have trampolines and/or swimming pools.

Woo, Park's in.

The Dodgers are getting great pitching from unexpected players.

293 - Okay, that clarifies things. I never knew that. And I'm not sure I understand why it is.

295

Nothing I haven't done before :-)

I thought it touched the fan's fingers (based on the path of the ball, and the fans reaction). However Bowa was waiving in Loney long long before Fred bobbled the ball (someone with TIVO can astest), horrible call by Bowa

Juan Pierre is wearing a camouflage t-shirt underneath his jersey.

289 I think it helps that he's a vet, and plays pretty calmly from what I can tell. I know how we make fun of PVLs and all that, but Casey Blake is actually a good player. Blake reminds me of the player Kent should have been this year.

I think the fan got his hand out of the way on time, but it seemed clear to me that the path of the ball was altered. It looked like it bounced up against the baseball mitt on his (the fan) other hand. Doesn't matter now though, The ruling was the top of the fence is out of play.

The umps must have decided that either it touched the fan or Lewis reached over the wall and snached it as it was falling over.
I think it was the 2nd...

Jeez, Rowand, tuck in your damned shirt.

296 The umpire made his call after Bowa sent Loney, FWIW.

304 I bet he doesn't use smileys.

BTW What was the name of that latin catcher?

303 - No, Bowa accelerated his waving after the ball went off Davis. Looking at the replay, it seemed clear to me that Bowa was reacting to something. I just couldn't believe he could see what he was reacting to.

307 neither. on the Giants broadcast they said the official ruling was that the top of the fence was out of play.

Maybe the top of the wall is out of play because people use it as a buffet table and the umps can't tell if the ball hits someone's hotdog.

I don't know if the top of the wall is out of play. The ball clearly broke the plane of the wall as Vin pointed out; Lewis reached over and down to get it. Don't know if that changes anything or not.

Just checking in while taking care of the sick kid. I got to watch an inning of ball and it just so happens the Dodgers scored twice on a weird play. Nice game, this baseball--the odds of seeing something for the first time are very high.

Just let Chan ho pitch another inning and have Broxton to close this game out

312 Maybe Bowa realized that Fred Lewis is a horrible fielder and could BS his way around an argument.

312

He's pretty old, Jon. Could've been a muscle spasm.

Chan Ho's miraculous resurrection continues.

Baseball Tonight is talking about the Dodgers-Giants game.

312 - It certainly is possible that Bowa overreacted to just the bobble by Lewis and waved Loney in. Especially since he knew Berroa was on deck. Then, he got lucky it went out of play and looks pretty smart.

314. You're actually not allowed to rest anything there and the ushers pretty regularly remind people of that. Of course, they do it anyway.

Arodin's still in the game?

322 - You may be right.

Awww, Giants announcers are mocking 128 year old Larry King for leaving early, in that "just another Dodger fan leaving early" kind of way. C'mon, give him a break.

316 The Dodgers scored once on a weird play, the scored the other run on a "normal" RBI base hit by Loney.

If Chan Ho ran with any kind of effort he could have been safe.

Solid hit by Park. Too bad he was thrown out by Castillo.

327 Lets not try to break our pitchers.

you know, I'm really happy Chan Ho

322

My thoughts exactly.

I'm pretty sure the rule book doesn't say exactly what constitutes "over" the fence. There might be a guideline in the umpire's casebook.

Let's just say I'm glad that Mike Carminati was not likely to be watching this. Or Mike would have a very long rant about this.

I guess Denker isn't getting any playing time in SF?

327 I don't think he'd have been safe, but yeah, that was sort of a leisurely jaunt. Oh well.

err...for Chan Ho

Ok, I want to see Pierre try to steal. I'm nervous that he's still hurt.

Juan Pierre is uncooperative.

one of those groundballs was due to get through. Now steal a base Juan-for!

How can you forget a Rabbit?

336 - Ok, that helped.

Wow, that was thievery.

Matt kemp distracted Cain and Pierre stole the base.

315 I just looked at the official universal ground rules and Dodger Stadium ground rules in the official MLB rule book (MLB.com) and there is no mention of the top of the walls down the line as being out of play.

I do think that there is one of those invisible walls that separates where a fan is considered to enter the field of play and it may be that Lewis violated that. But I don't know how the umpires saw that.

Ball 4, Matty.

333
I believe Denker is getting plenty of PT at Fresno.

Ball 4 again.

healthy 3-0 hack by Kemp. Showed a great eye stopping his swing on that 2-0 curveball.

After thinking about it, I'm sure there was a play just like this one vs. Peavy and the Padres this year.

I think it netted us our only run the time we faced him.

Is anybody else a little creeped out by the albino 'physics professor' in that MLBTV commercial?

349 I'm just wondering why he's trying to sell me a TV.

No hitter broken up in San Diego.

5 outs in 3 AB. That's impressive.

How about DeWitt down in Vegas? 3 for 4 so far with 4 RBI's and a HR (again). Oh, and he is a 2B away from the cycle going into the 7th.

352
Joe Torre made 8 outs in 4 AB once.

Juan has wall fear.

If Pierre made that play!

I don't get what this Amy girl is bringing to the Giants broadcast, except that she appeals to guys who have a girl in glasses fetish.

Her public speaking is weak.

353 - Vegas was exactly what he needed.

Official Rule - Batters
Rule 6.09

The batter becomes a runner when

g) Any bounding fair ball is deflected by the fielder into the stands, or over or under a fence on fair or foul territory, in which case the batter and all runners shall be entitled to advance two bases;

Another ball deflected out of play!

I've been flipping to Baseball Tonight - these Manny clips are priceless - he's not even trying. He's been walking to first on groundballs in roughly 6 seconds. There was a ball he hit today that a Molina brother would have beat out (and that would have broken up the no-no) where he was thrown out by 10 feet.

357
And she did not even start wearing those glasses till recently.

354

By writing Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre into the same spot on the lineup card?

Dave Roberts is out, but the Giants still have Candy Maldonado and Derrell Thomas on their bench.

bases loaded in SD in the bottom of the 8th, 2 outs...Hairston up

If Ned feels compelled to make a move, I hope he just gets Everett off waivers and sits on his damn hands.

FOUND IT!

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN200804050.shtml

It was that play where Josh Bard caught a Martin pop fly behind home, but his dugout helped hold him up so Furcal was allowed to score.

Sorry, just racking my brain for a play that reminded me of what happened tonight.

362 Hey, it's a chance for her to escape her troubled life in the Marina.

LONEY!!!! bad boy!

Are they playing DeWitt at 2nd base, so the riches will mean something?

Gotta have that one, Weird Game

362

Maybe she has a new boyfriend who's into it.

370 3B

Bases are loaded for Hairston with 2 outs. Rauch is coming into the game to face him.

That Loney drop happens once in a blue moon. Fluke.

If I'm evaluating defensive players like CanuckDodger says I should, Berroa doesn't look that bad - that error aside.

Did Park almost do a Duaner Sanchez on that ball and cause a triple?

Ba-loney.

DeWitt is at 3rd tonight.

Man, that was a slick play by Berroa.

In comes the smokejumper Broxton! He scoffs at 3 out saves!

Wow, Jody Gerut almost at least tied it. Great catch by Romero!

313 madmac ---your right.
I just replayed it and what the announcers said is that once the ball is on top of the pad it's out of play.

Damn, Loney blew everything with that drop. Now Park's out when the inning should be over.

That error is a tough call on Berroa. Loney should have dug that out.

Romero just made a great catch to save the game for the D'backs. Argh

Alex Romero just saved the D'Backs butt.

Matt Vasgersian just broke out a quote that he also said on 9/18/06: "You have got to be shaving me!"

375 Almost, but it looked like it just inadvertently came off his hand instead of him hurling it at the ball.

Gerut just missed tying the game.

Daaaang, what a catch

BTW, I went into Step Brothers expecting 90 minutes of stupid humor and entertainment and it did not disappoint.

386

Yeah, it was kind of a Charlie Brown move.

99! Smoke indeed.

Thanks for playing, Jose

379 - That's not really my definition of a smokejumper. To me, a smokejumper is a great reliever who comes into a critical situation that won't be a save opportunity.

That catch by Romero was ridiculous. i dont know how much of it was luck (probably a ton), but talk about saving a game. Stupid Petco dimensions.

OMG, I had no idea it was Shark Week!

That Romero catch gives Milton Bradley competition for the best catch at Petco Park.

395 I lol'ed (sorry).

393

Yeah, I'm a little disappointed in Eric. He's knows better.

He knows better.

I'm not quite sure what is going on in Vegas, but Hu, who is seeing the ball well now, and LaRoche, don't seem to be playing the last few games, and DeWitt has playes 1st and 3rd, and elsewhere. Everywhere but 2nd in fact. I'm afraid I feel a trade coming on.

Hinshaw's Gameday photo is unfortunate.

Cool. Kent is coming to the plate to Van Halen's Unchained.

There's that 2nd hit someone predicted for Kent

Hee! I was right! Two hits for Kent!

401

He looks like Eric Cartman in last season's Special Olympics episode.

393
I guess I expanded the definition to include any fire outside the normal 3-out, starting-an-inning variety.

Kent is thinking, "Yeah, now it goes into left field. Where's my pinch runner I got to get home to watch 'How not to become Shark Bait!"

Does anyone know of a reason why LaRoche has yet to get an at bat in Vegas since being sent down? Or is it that they want to get him acustom to the manner that Torre will use him?

408 DY's chat suggests that Andy is still in LA.

:'(

Vin is sounding a familiar tone. I wonder where I've heard it before.

Vin just made Jon's year.

"When the kids see 5 pitches [in 4 ABs like Kent], that's impatience. When Kent does it, that's a cagey veteran."

-Vin

406 - Well, the idea behind smokejumping is to break managers out of the closing mentality. But to each his own.

I love it when Vin drops knowledge on stuff that we talk about on here all the time but seems to escape the MSM pundits.

Wow, 5 pitches in 4 At Bats for Jeff Kent.

Vin: "If the kids have fast at bats, its impatience, if its a vet doing its, You're a cagey Veteran."

411/412 - Wow, I totally missed that. Thanks!

412
BTW, that quote is probably not verbatim, since I'm not watching on my DVR box. But the point is clear.

There is nothing new under the sun for Vin. He has probably been hearing this tune for 50 years.

415 To be fair, Kent smoked the pitches the he hit. And Vin said that with tongue firmly planted in cheek.

Vin just trashed the concept of the PVL. He praised Ethier and Kemp for seeing 17 pitches combined during their at bats in the 6th inning, then said that Jeff Kent has seen a total of five pitches in his four at bats. He then finished off by saying that if the young players did what Kent did, it is called impatience, but when Kent does it, he is a "cagey old veteran, or something like that." Priceless!

413 But isn't the Dodgers bullpen so good that your 2nd and 3rd option out of the pen(Chan Ho Park, and Kuo) are just as good as your first option? Broxton may be the closer, but Park and Kuo are pitching just as well as Broxton is, and maybe even better.

That Vin quote is awesome. I'm so sad I have Kuiper and Krukow. So very sad.

Now, I'm going to have to go back and transcribe.

Ozuna with PVL smarts!

Amazing.

Looks like the Diamondbacks and Dodgers will match game results (win/loss) for the sixth consecutive time. vr, Xei

422
I like how they admitted to buying booze at 11:20 in the morning.

Bowker plays first base like he is a ten digit ISBN in a 13-digit ISBN world!

I think everyone is hearing Vin with their hearts and not their heads.

But he has been praising Kemp and Ethier for their at-bats (and he also said that they are doing what Torre is preaching).

427
Hey I made three Bowker jokes on the Griddle like that and nobody reacted to them.

426

Many times I just watch on mute and listen to my iPod. Or the sirens.

"So if the kids see 5 pitches, that's impatience. When you've been around a while, that's a cagey old veteran, or something." -Vin verbatim

421 - This discussion goes back years on this site, and is more philosophical than something related to this year's team.

That being said, Kuo is the perfect guy to be a smokejumper.

I listen to Vin with my stomach.

I'm not sure what that means, either, but I can't see not saying it.

428 Vin was clearly pointing out a double standard. No doubt about it.

430
The horrid thing is that they used to be even worse.

429 . Except for you, Bob, I don't think anyone has reacted over here either.

Can someone differentiate a 2-base error for a fielder tipping a ball out of play in foul territory vs. a fielder tipping a ball into the stands in fair territory for a HR or ground-rule double?

"Interesting, we were talking earlier about Kemp and Ethier in the 6th inning. The two of them combined had 17 pitches, they really made Matt Cain work hard. Matt (Cain) made 36 pitches in that inning. But, Matt and Ethier 17 of them. Turn that around the other way. And look at the veteran Jeff Kent. Jeff Kent tonight had four at-bats. You know how many pitches Jeff saw? Five. Five...

So if the kids have five pitches that's impatience when you've been around a while, that's a cagey old veteran...or something."

435

I think you're young (and lucky) enough to have missed the Ron Fairly years. Hank Greenwald was no picnic, either.

Casey Blake should charge the ump on that call!

439
Hank Greenwald briefly worked for the A's.

Good grief. I don't you could find a more boring and lifeless person on Earth.

Good night indeed. GG JJ

441
*I don't think you...

Broxton's slowest pitch was 94 mph.

438 Or something....nice. and goodnight, go blue.

And some people said Broxton "couldn't close."

Idiots.

That was a neat win. Great to see Broxton doing so well as a closer, and Johnson deserved his win.

Krukow had a massive Rule 8 violation on the subject of that controversial play in left field. Siddown, Meat!

437
The umpires ruled that Lewis had control of Blake's hit and then juggled it into the stands, so it was an error.

If Lewis had never controlled it and the ball went into the stands, it would have been an automatic double.

Woo, back to .500

Good-bye, good-night, good all over. And I think Vin praised Ethier and Kemp and lampooned the vets in no uncertain or tongue in cheek way. He has noted what is going on here for months if not years, and it is an incredable travesty.

441

And my first exposure to the awful nightmare that is Steve Physioc came with Giants broadcasts in the late-80s. Imagine my horror when I moved back to Southern California in 94 only to find that he was the play-by-play for my beloved Rams.

I actually don't mind Krukow and Kuiper most of the time, they can even be astute and - as Icaros said, if you'd experienced Greenwald or some of their other guys before them, you'd appreciate them more than maybe they deserve. Dave Fleming on the radio is pretty solid, too.

More importantly, Giants lose, Dodgers win, and we can all sleep well.

448 Thanks. I also just read 6.09(h) that a ball deflected off a player over the OF fence in fair territory is not a HR if it is touched less than 250 ft from home plate. That I would like to see.

421 Your man Brandon Lyon closed it. Please tell Vin for me lest I have to hear him demonstrate once again that he really doesn't follow the game anymore.

Seriously, that Vin quote needs to be framed in one of Jon's next posts or something. It's classic and spot-on, and maybe the powers that be actually listen to him, unlike us poor basement-dwellers.

428
I think everyone is hearing Vin with their hearts and not their heads.

I agree with you. I don't think Vin was rattling any sabers or had an axe to grind. I just thought it was nice to hear it said. On TV. By Vin.

Kuiper is an excellent play by play guy but is MUCH better alone on radio without Krukow.

452
Aside from their homerism, I don't like how every game they go through periods where they just totally ignore what's going. They usually do this to tell a story or talk about some person they work with that no one knows or cares about.

*what's going on.

Blake DeWitt walks.

I don't mind Krukow and Kuiper either. They wear pretty well.

I hate Kuiper's excited voice. The Giants HR calls are basically unbearable to me.

453
There used to be stadiums that had fences shorter than 250'. But it's been a while. Also, fans used to sit on the field and that made the "fence" effectively shorter than 250'.

The fence at the Coliseum for the exhibition game was shorter than 250', but the rule was not enforced.

On the other hand Greg Papa I can do without.

464
He's good at saying, "Rrrraaaaiiiiidderrrsss!"

That's pretty much it.

Were we on orange alert for DeWitt? (Or I guess there's no alert system for AAA games.)

Papa and Tom Flores in the radio booth for Raiders games is more excitement than I can stand -- excitement in that sense you get from golf announcers.

458 - Yeah that's true about Kruk and Kuip, they do go on... and there's often times where there's totally dead air. And not in a well-timed, Vin Scully kind of way.

Wow - I love Papa, and even though he's no Bill King, I like listening to him. Probably only b/c I'm a Raiders fan.

As someone who's spent the past few years in the midwest listening to terrible announcers there and on the directv package - u guys are nuts complaining about Kuiper and Krukow. They are one of the best crews there is - trust me on this.

465
He's good at saying, "Rrrraaaaiiiiidderrrsss!"

Problem? :)

I like the more mediocre of my announcers to have weird quirks and inane catch phrases, thank you very much. How do you do?

I think Gus Johnson should call every sporting event that Vin Scully doesn't want to do.

458 trainwreck
I don't think that they are really that bad in that way (being homers)...except when Bonds was on his HR trek. That was over the top.

Reading McCovey Chronicles gameday threads are hilarious. They really really really hate Ethier, and a couple of them are sexually attracted to him. And their frustration over the vets playing over the kids may be even worse than what we're experiencing with the Dodgers.

468

I have Extra Innings and am aware of how awful so many others are, but I grew up an LA fan in the Bay Area and so have an extra bitter taste for Giants homerism.

468 oshea2002
I don't listen or watch the Raiders so I have no opinion about his football announcing.

466. I don't hold no-hitters or cycles in the minors in the same regard as ones in the majors. But DeWitt took a walk in his 5th AB. I'm not sure if he will be batting again in the bottom of the 9th.

Casey Blake's cousin is the 51's clubhouse manager:

'CLUBBIES' AT HOME ON JOB

http://www.lvrj.com/sports/26026074.html

469
You would love the play-by-play guy that did the Team Canada vs Team USA game.

I'll defend Kruk and Kuip and say they're pretty darn good announcers. I think they happen to be pretty knowledgeable about baseball, and whenever the Giants play other teams (on Extra Innings) I don't have a real problem with them. Fortunately they still manage to keep track of the game, unlike Sunday Night Baseball.

The inane banter is just something that will pop up in most baseball games. There are 162 games a year. After a while everyone runs out of meaningful things to talk about.

Meanwhile, Mark Grace on Dbacks broadcasts is growing on me, and I can't put a finger on it. He sounds like fun to listen to, despite the overexubrance, if you will, of his play by play colleague.

473 Extra Innings really made me appreciate Rick Monday back when he was solo. Rick isn't a great announcer but the guy is miles ahead of some of the TV guys around the country.

Speaking of announcers, I've decided recently that I can't stand Josh Lewin. While I find his baseball announcing rather awful, it is nothing to compared to his football skills. The dude yells like every play is a game breaker. He was yelling and screaming when LT hit a hole for a 3 yard gain and my wife (not a sports fan) thought that someone scored a touchdown or something.

While we're talking about announcers, what do you guys think of Rory Markas gradually taking over the Angels TV booth? Personally I enjoy the Hud-free telecasts much more. Markas is still better on radio (with Terry) but when I find time to catch an Angels game its great to hear him most of the time.

Oh man, I just saw those t-shirts on your blog, underdog.

I want that Ozu one.

480 I never really minded Hud all that much. Physioc was the guy that bugged me. He too came from the "If I yell really loud, the play will seem more exciting" school of broadcasting.

He no Jose Guillen but I don't think he'll be sending any text messages to any of his former teammates if they advance in the playoffs.

From tomorrow's LAT story:

Casey Kotchman wouldn't come out and say it, but there appeared to be some lingering resentment between the first baseman and Mike Scioscia over the Angels manager's benching of Kotchman against left-handers over the last two seasons.

Asked whether he felt jolted by Tuesday's trade, considering the ties he has to an organization that drafted him in the first round in 2000 and has employed his father, Tom, as a minor league manager and scout for about 30 years, Kotchman barely flinched. "No, not at all," he said. "I don't have any ties here."

http://tinyurl.com/6x9udw

481 Hah hah, I know, aren't those awesome? I haven't taken the plunge to order one of them yet either but it's tempting.

---

Btw, the Dodgers now lead the NL in ERA (3.75) and are 4th in WHIP.

Simers has a new piece out.

Shouldn't the Dodgers be making the kind of move the Angels made -- the Angels already in the playoffs, but the Dodgers still fighting to get there?

NO. The Angels made that trade because they're as close to the World Series as they possibly could be. The Dodgers wouldn't be any better with a guy like Texiera.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-sp-simers30-2008jul30,0,3285009.column

Oh, and its a Simers story about comparing the Dodgers and Angels, I have not read it yet.

According to the Dodger notes in the LA Times, the Braves approached the Dodgers about 3 weeks ago and asked for Loney and a prospect for Teixeira, the Dodgers never gave it serious thought.

481 link?

487
T-Shirts
http://www.cinefilevideo.com/products-page/

Underdog's blog, check it out.
http://underdog.typepad.com/wandering_outloud_/

483 Ouch. Guess the Angels chose Soscia over Kotchman.

During the morning, I ran through career stats for James Loney. I determined he's one of the most consistent hitters in baseball. Right around .300 batting average with a solid .350+ OBP. He leads the team in triples, doubles, and (obviously) total bases.

All this for less than $500,000! Why would we trade this production and a prospect for Tex? I wouldn't have been against it (Tex is a very good hitter), but it's too much to pay for modest gain.

472 Sheesh. Reading the McCovey Chronicles is similar to reading Little Green Footballs. The language is cesspool-ish. And what is the hate for Ethier all about, I wonder?

I'll be interested to see if Torre gives Andruw Jones a start tomorrow since the Giants are starting a left hander.

491 Ethier was 11 out of 16 coming into the game against Cain. I don't know what the updated stats are (12 out of 19?) but Ethier hits the Giants pretty well, and he's a pretty boy. Thus the vaguely homoerotic comments splashed here and there. And its not even a bashing thing, those SF guys are just smitten with Ethier's looks.

492 It'll be interesting if he sits JP, or Ethier to do it. Kemp, JP and Ethier played pretty well today.

494 - Ethier with 2 for 3 with a HR against Sanchez earlier this season while Jones went 0 for 3 with 3 K's. Nothing should change.

495 What are JP numbers against Sanchez? If they're poor (or just average) Torre might use it as an excuse to give JP a night off.

"He's gotten good at bats," nodded Torre of Mr. Sweet 16. "He's making adjustments during the at bats. He's growing. He's learning and he's willing to learn. I think that's hugely important."

http://sportsblogs.latimes.com/sports_baseball_dodgers/2008/07/post-10.html#more

496 - Pierre is 2 for 3 against Sanchez. Regardless, the chances of Torre sitting Pierre are very slim. I happen to believe we're in the middle of a Jones/Ethier platoon, but would be pleasantly surprised if Ethier is in the lineup tomorrow night.

Nomar Garciaparra is apparently thinking a DL stint won't be necessary. Feeling better today than he anticipated, he threw and hit off a tee today, which could make him available to make appearances off the bench relatively soon. Soon enough that a deal for a shortstop won't be necessary? Give it another 24 hours and more may be known.

Odd how the L.A. Times blog usually yield more info than the official Dodgers site, and Tony Jackson's personal blog.

485

The Dodgers would definitely be better with a guy like Teixeira. He IS better than Loney, he would make our team better by playing over him.

I'm not saying we should have traded for him or that we should sign for him in the off season, but if all things were equal, we'd be better off with Tex. That being said I'd rather have Loney and the $20 million a year Tex is demanding as a FA go to Sabathia or something.

From the Times' notebook:

>>Given the option of taking either Tuesday or today off so that he could play all four games of the upcoming Arizona series, catcher Russell Martin chose the former so that he could catch Chad Billingsley tonight against San Francisco.<<

Aww.

501
The Jacksonville 5 stick together.

Unless of course you get traded to Tampa Bay.

Do I understand that Andruw Jones is now a late-inning defensive replacement, not for Juan Pierre, but for Andre Ethier...?

497 That is good to hear. Coachability was the one thing mgmt seemed to be using to separate the ones they like from the ones they don't.

500 Yep. Tex isn't going to help the Angels with anything except the playoffs, they've already won the division. He would help us not only there but in the pennant race. Plus Kotchman is a bit better than Loney this year.

I wouldn't be happy if we traded Loney for Tex, but it would help us more than it helped the Angels.

Teixeira to the Angels could be good for the Dodgers.

Tex gets to find out how LA is, and hopefully he gets comfortable. The Dodgers can sign him in the off-season, and deal Loney for something else then too.

A Teixeira for Loney/Prospect deal probably was never on the table for the Dodgers since McCourt has put the "revenue neutral" stuff into his protocol on potential trades.

McCourt has put the "revenue neutral" stuff into his protocol on potential trades

As it turns out, it looks as if the $18 million to Jones did in fact hamper the Dodgers's ability to acquire other players.

Not that that's necessarily a bad thing...

506 -- No, Kotchman has not been a "bit better" than Loney this year:

Loney: .301/.358/.463 -- .821 OPS

Kotchman: .287/.327/.448 -- .774 OPS

And, yes, I am aware that you massage Loney's REAL numbers to penalize him for hitting into double plays, which is just an underhanded way for penalizing a guy for being a contact hitter instead of a strikeout machine. And regardless of spurious defensive metrics, Loney is just as good as Kotchman defensively. Scouts and managers have always praised BOTH players for their defense.

In fact, when you look at Loney's performance this year the way that Angels' MANAGEMENT surely looks at performance (which means throwing out defensive metrics and the double play obsession), add in that Loney is a year younger than Kotchman and further away from free agency, and note that Sciosca and Kotchman didn't get along, I think the following proposition is very likely true: If the Angels had had Loney instead of Kotchman, they would not have traded for Teixeira at all.

The Dodgers wouldn't be any better with a guy like Texiera.

They would be better this year I don't think there's much question.

507 -- Everyone gets it that you want Loney gone and you want Teixeira in a Dodger uniform, if not this year, then next year. Rule 8 notwithstanding, you've beat that dead horse to a pulp. But here is what I don't get: your complete obliviousness to the fact that the Dodgers to varying degrees like/really like/love Loney and he is not going anywhere. The Dodgers do not want Teixeira. They have zero interest in him. They have no interest in him now, and that will not change after the season. I suppose you could COMPLAIN about those facts all you want, but obliviousness to the facts is another thing altogether and makes you come across as denying a reality with which you are unable to come to terms.

501 That's soooo cute... in a manly sort of way.

509 One slight correction, at least this year, Kotchman is a better contact hitter in the sense that he has struck out only 23 times in nearly 400 PA. However he has also only walked 18 times.

In regards to the crazy out of play call last night, I don't know how the umpires could see what happened with all the security on the field. When did all those guys get on the field, and what are they doing there? Does every team have on field security like the Dodgers? I am surprised they have not gotten in the way of in play balls more often. They have to worry about the chair too.

513 -- "Better contact hitter" wasn't the claim Regfairfield made on Kotchman's behalf, and wasn't something I addressed.

Kotchman is a better contact hitter in the sense that he has struck out only 23 times in nearly 400 PA. However he has also only walked 18 times

I'd be more inclined to think that this is an issue of taking fewer pitches, rather than better contact. His P/PA is a career low 3.35 this season, down from 3.73 last season.

516 Or he is adapting to the "Hatcher" theory of hitting.

Whose to say if he has a pattern yet, this is only Kotchman's second full season.

Oh and by the way, Loney has not grounded into a double play in July.

507 It's really hard to argue a point when you say all of my arguements are useless, so I guess I'm wrong.

506

Regfairfield, I certainly hear you regarding double plays lowering ofensive value, but Kotchman has hit what 5 less DPs than Loney in less at bats, and he has been somewhat sheltered from facing lefties (which probably inflates his numbers). Given that and the fact that Loney is out OPSing him (by 100 points in there short careers) while a year younger, I think that you are short changing Loney in your assessment.

519 The arguement wasn't based on double plays really. Loney has a seven VORP advantage is slightly more PA while Kotchman plays much better defense (+35 since 2007 versus -1.) That's why I say that Kotchman is slightly better right now.

518 -- "...so I guess I'm wrong." Yes, and it wasn't so tough to admit that, was it?:)

Seriously, a logical syllogism can be absolutely "sound" but still wrong if one or both of the premises is wrong. I understand how you came to your conclusion, I understand your logic, but I submit you subscribe to premises that are wrong, and they lead you to a bad, if still logical, conclusion.

I'm going to the pound and adopting a second, I'll name him Texeira and then tell my current cat that I don't like him as much as Texeira and deal him for three rats.

With Sabathia wanting to hit and therefore having to be in the NL to do so, and him wanting to play on the West Coast, the Dodgers have a great chance of signing him. If that is their goal, it seems Colletti realizes he can have Loney and Sabathia but probably can't have Texieria and Sabathia without dumping salary (Pierre, Jones).

Whispers here and there indicate that perhaps Texieria's statistics don't tell the rest of the story. If he could/did play third and dropped Boras as his agent, I would be more interested with the latter indicating his desire to play baseball vs. make money.

519 was like a polite, respectful version of 511 . Much more pleasant to read.

The adjustment for DPs is a neat idea. Of course, it tells us something more about how well a player has performed, but less about how good a player he is. Even if it's "not his fault" for hitting the ball hard (but right at someone) with a runner on (and being slow), the fact is, his AB led to 2 outs. It might be a marginal aid to lineup construction. To pull out a Tracyism, maybe Loney would be in a "better position to succeed" if he were batting leadoff. Of course, then his RBI totals would look horrid for a first baseman.

There's a tradeoff, however, since Loney is a lefty. Having a runner on should open up more space for pulled seeing-eye singles. So maybe he gets a few of those that he wouldn't get if the bases were empty. The cost is more double plays.

519 Loney's career splits
vs. LHP- .793
vs. RHP- .901

520

Personally I think you should be using combined numbers over 2 or 3 years in order to obtain a better sample, and take in consideration that Loney is not sheltered from Lefties as much as Kotchman. Also do you really want to put that much weight on one defensive statistic, or do they all show Kotch to be far and away better? Besides when comparing the 2 for purposes of a trade age and service time would also become a hugh plus for Loney, I know you have been saying "right now" and "this year" but the greater context of the discussion here has regarding the Tex trade.

524 -- But I believe you made a point of saying, in the past, that you were never going to read anything I posted again, so how could you judge how pleasant or unpleasant my post was?

And post 519 said something quite different, in substance, than what I said, outside of the common point that Regfairfield is underestimating Loney.

Sounds like the Braves turned down the DBacks' offer of Chad Tracy and Micah Owings for Texeira. Can't say I blame them. Owings is a better hitter than he is a pitcher these days, too.

The Rays are scouting our old friend Jayson Werth (via MLBTR).

524

Thanks

525

Yes, but I was referring to Kotchman being "somewhat" sheltered

.811 Vs Right
.696 Vs Left

Thus inflating his overall number therefore adding value to Loney (in comparison).

This is just mho, and off topic, but the Kings seemed to have gotten a very nice haul for Ron Artest. Bobby Jackson, a #1 pick and the rights to Donte Green? Nice.

529

Ok so my split number are incorrect as they do not include 2008, although Casey has often been platooned his splits are

.757 Right
.785 Left

526 The defensive metrics I look at (+/-, RZR, Dial's UZR esque thing) rate Kotchman somewhere between good and really good while they rate Loney from below average to average. Unless Loney plays defense really well in a way we can't measure, he's not living up to scouting reports.

530 Yeah that's not bad. But Houston looks like they could be an elite team (or implode/stumble with injuries) now. Oh well. At least that means the Lakers won't trade Odom for Artest now, right?

Chat with BA's Jim Callis at 11AM PST today:

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=21732

Olney is putting this in perspective.

If Kotchman -- the younger, cheaper player -- had been generating more than his .327 on-base percentage and his .448 slugging percentage, the Angels would not have considered making this deal. But the Angels' first basemen are 22nd in OPS and 22nd in RBIs this season, so they were willing to ship three years of Kotchman, who won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season, for two months of Teixeira.

And I'll back off my comment a bit. Texieira on the Dodgers would help, but I honestly think it wouldn't help any more than what Casey Blake is giving us currently. The Braves were roughly where the Dodgers are this year (Contending but not in the lead) and they missed the playoffs as they faded away despite the mashing Texiera did for them at the 2nd half in 2007. Kotchman wasn't producing for the Angels as much as they liked. Loney's one of our more productive players. Loney's leading the team in Batting average, RBI's, and his OBP is .358 and his slugging is .463. Just better numbers than what Kotchman was giving the Angels.

533 Well, yeah and I'm particularly glad the Lakers didn't trade for Artest if that's the kind of haul they'd have to ship off. And I just can't root for him on my team... But yeah, he'll help the Rockets compete for a championship, no doubt, if he stays healthy (and calm).

I don't believe that the Angels traded Kotchman because of his OBP and SLG. I doubt they were even cognizant of those figures. However, they might have traded him because other stats that factor in to OBP and SLG weren't as good as they would have liked.

535 Good points, all. Except I'd argue that Braves have even less of a shot of making the playoffs and doing anything in the post-season than the Dodgers this year. But either way, yeah, renting Tex for two months would probably help the Dodgers this season, but enough to justify not having a first baseman next year and beyond? Since Loney would be gone and I find it hard to imagine the Dodgers being able to sign Tex, especially with Boras as his agent and the asking price what it will be. So, good on ya, Angels, but one team's fit is not another's.

523
it seems Colletti realizes he can have Loney and Sabathia but probably can't have Texieria and Sabathia without dumping salary (Pierre, Jones)

The 2009 payroll is at about $96m projected without adding a middle infielder (for now, I have Hu & Abreu as placeholders but that won't happen) or Sabathia. Adding those two pieces probably pushes the 2009 payroll into the $125m region, which is where the club is operating now.

In 2010, we're only at about $70m without the aforementioned middle infielder or starter.

I think there is a good chance the Dodgers will be players in the upcoming FA market, and might backload some contracts to ease through 2009. But they can certainly afford multiple FA signings (hoping and assuming they're talented) if they so choose.

525 I never got the opportuntiy to respond back to you in terms of lineup protection yesterday. Yes your first assessment of my comment was correct, I have never seen a study that has convinced me that lineup protection is a fallacy. The studies that I have seen have dealt with rate stats, which by themselves are a great indicator of an individual hitter's skills but diminish a players actual value to a team. I feel that a team's perspective of a player's value fall more under the catagory of actual run production (runs+rbi-hr) as runs win and lose games (again not the team's skill assessment of the player). Regardless of a hitters "protection", any given player will have several low-leverage situations and get pitched to in a given season. To think that somebody like Bonds however (sorry to keep using him but he is the extreme example) would have been pitched to the same way in a 2-2 game in the fifth inning regardless of who was hitting behind him is just plain wrong IMO. If Bonds had a bonafide power stick hitting behind him during those ridiculous years, his run production and HR totals would surely have improved as pitchers would have been forced to pitch to him more often and if they didn't, a better hitter would have driven in Bonds more frequently. I think we can all agree that the more runs a player produces, the more valuable they are to their team and I haven't seen a study that can show me otherwise. If you can point me a direction where I can read a study that disproves what I think (I'm not sure a study could prove or disprove as it is all speculative) I would glady read it. Sorry for the ramble everybody, but I find it intriguing that some people think lineup protection doesn't matter.

oops 524

I would not rate Loney's defense as anything but average. My own observation is that he is an excellent fielder prone to mental lapses (often on routine plays) and around the bag his footwork is lacking causing him to back up on throws and get played by the ball. I was just curious if you were only using the + - system in which Casey's number seems overstated to me as I find it hard to believe that a first baseman's defensive can make that great of a difference (perhaps he really is just that good).

532 -- But the entire point, which you disagree with, is that defense CAN'T be measured, quantified outside of the standard 20-80 scouting scale, and where different scouts rate a player on that scale depends on subjective observation.

I do not get to watch every Dodger game like most people here; I don't even get to watch many of them at all. But I do follow the game comments on DT and it seems like every few games everybody goes crazy over some fantastic defensive play Loney makes. Average first basemen, let alone below-average first basemen, do not have people going gaga (in a good way) over their defensive play every few games.

533

Daryl Morey is the NBA's equivalent of Billy Beane. I bet he is the only one to use sabermetrics in basketball. To give up Jackson, Greene, and a (probable) low first round pick is a good gamble. I heard that they will put Artest at the 4, which gives them a incredible lineup at 2-5.

And I'm also glad that the Lakers didn't trade Odom for Artest. For someone that demands to be the main focal point of the offense, his stats aren't that great. His TS% and eFG% scares me. His WSAA is amazingly in the negative area, which is just plain sad. To give up Odom, who is the statistically a superior player is just folly.

And that is all for Rockets Thoughts.

If Joey P wants to believe that the Dodgers are better off paying 20 Mill per year for Tex over the next 8 years instead of paying a controlled Loney whatever they want over the next 4 we can disagree, but I would hope we could disagree a little more civilly no matter how many times he beats that horse.

We all have our dead horses and they get repeated on a daily basis.

542 I'm inclined to agree with that assessment of Loney's defense.

543 Average first basemen, let alone below-average first basemen, do not have people going gaga (in a good way) over their defensive play every few games.

Does that statement apply to other positions, too?

543
Subjectively I've seen both Kotchman and Loney quite a few games and I'd rate Kotchman above Loney defensively. Casey would never have dropped the throw last night which put the game in jeopardy.
Loney makes lots of great plays but he also has not quite learned the art of knowing which balls to go for and which ones to let his 2nd baseman get. He is great at digging out throws but his throws to 2nd leave alot to be desired.
Casey just never seems to make a mistake but again this is just subjective.

543 This is why I like +/- because it involves literarly looking at every play and seeing if the guy missed a catchable ball. It trys to quantify the 20-80 scale.

It's also entirely possible to make great plays without being that great defensively. If a guy has less reactions and range, he has to make a step to his side, dive and impress everyone. A more rangy guy takes two steps to his side and no one cares.

542 If you're a really good defender, it's easy to look good when you're being compared to Prince Fielder. Kotchman and Pujols have gloves that could easily play at more challenging positions, but they're at first for various reasons.

So, lineup discussion for my softball team. I am currently batting .700/.808/1.250. I have the most walks (I only walk if the pitching is horrible, but I am not willing to pop up on a meaty looking inside pitch that is a ball) and I have the most runs scored for the team.

I have been batting off and on in the 3,4,5,6 spots.

So, where should I be batting in a power starved lineup?

They have no interest in him now, and that will not change after the season.

It might if the Dodgers put new front office management in place in the off-season, which is a definite possibility.

Dodgers are better off paying 20 Mill per year for Tex over the next 8 years instead of paying a controlled Loney whatever they want over the next 4

Goal is to build the best team. Not the most cost efficient.

And I'm not sure why Canuck dismisses double plays. Thats one of the downfalls to having a player that isnt a 3TO hitter.

The Dodgers don't seem like players for either Teixiera or Sabathia in the offseason, IMO. Tex just doesn't seem to fit in with this team, and as for CC, I'll bet McCourt gets blown out of the water by Hank the Tank.

548 If Jeff Kent was your second basemen you'd be running after everything hit in your vicinity too.

544
The odds of Yao and McGradey staying healthy decreases each year and isn't helped with Yao having to pull his weight on the National team every year. This is a great deal for them and hopefully it works out with them having a great run to the finals.

Ricky Davis signs with Clippers and it doesn't even get an ESPN mention. This has been the wildest Clipper summer in history and in the end they will have their hands full trying to make the 8 spot.

552 - I bet you you're right about Tex but not about CC. Not saying they'll get him, but I bet they're players for him. What I really fear - but think the Zito albatross kills this possibility - is the Giants making a play for him, given he's from up here. But I bet he ends up in California. (Or NY.)

I'm still shocked that Bob spelled Teixeira with only one i. The world is not right.

551

Unless the new GM is Jim Bowden, its unlikely a guy like Logan White or Kim Ng, the two front runners in the Dodgers origination is going to sign a guy like Tex to a huge contract after what we're gone though with Jones, Schidmt, etc. Especially when we have a better than average 1st baseman in Loney.

And as for the double plays, if you truly think its a problem than we might as well move Loney to the lead off spot to limit them then, or not put a slug like Kent in front of him. The Double Play stat can only measure that they happened in a game, not why it happened. Did Loney hit right at somebody? Is the guy in front of him slower than the average baseball player? Did the guy in front of him try to break up the play by trying to take out the 2nd baseman? etc.

545 -- I said that JoeyP can go ahead and complain that that Dodgers WON'T be getting rid of Loney, can complain that we WON'T be getting Teixeira. We all complain about things here, and nobody is saying he has to like Loney (he should, I wish he would, but he doesn't HAVE to). But repeatedly writing EXPECTANTLY about something that just has no chance of happening is taking Rule 8 to an art form. It is as if somebody were continually talking about how the Dodgers will be when we trade for A-Rod after the 2008 season and making plans for 2009 accordingly. That would not be about being wrong about a preference, as much as it would be plain out of touch with reality.

549 What's Kent +/-? I remember you saying that the stats show that Kent's one of our better fielders.

CC will get a much bigger contract than Tex though.

Dodgers should be players for both with all the salary coming off the books, but that also includes them making smart decisions like:

A.) Not getting stuck paying Casey Blake 7-8 mils a year to play 3b.

B.) Not getting stuck paying Nomar 6-7.

This is a big off-season for the Dodgers.
SS, 2b, and 3b and possibly 1b are all in play.

559 Jeff Kent is currently ranked 30th for second basemen in +/-.

561 What about Howie Kendrick?

But repeatedly writing EXPECTANTLY about something that just has no chance of happening is taking Rule 8 to an art form

Is that any different that you writing expectantly that Loney's going to hit 30 HRs a year in the next couple years?

You're right--if management stays the same I expect Loney to still be here and the Dodgers to maintain business as usual.

But I fully expect a management change that will definitely deviate in philosphy from the current regime.

560 So wait, you admit that we have holes at starting pitching, SS, 3rd, and 2nd in the off season and you want to fix 1st base? That's just putting your chips in the wrong place.

562 (or whoever the regular LAA 2b is)

562 Jeff Kent is a -9 in +/-, BTW. However, he's middle of the pack in RZR, though he seems to have made less out-of-zone plays than other second baseman.

Howie Kendrick is 15th, with a +/- of 0. RZR also rates him as middle of the pack.

555--> I dont think the Giants have the funds to go after Sabathia. IF they did, they'd have one scary pitching staff.

Sabathia, Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito.

Given their minor league system, they could get good again quick.

But that doesnt have much of a chance of happening.

But I fully expect a management change that will definitely deviate in philosphy from the current regime

A management change may be at least somewhat likely (though not certain), but I don't see any reason to think the new management will definitely deviate in philosophy from the current regime. It's not as if McCourt's likely to revert to a Depo-type GM. He'd probably just hire another neanderthal.

562
Kendrick is at 0 right now (15th in MLB). Last 2 years were:

2007: +7 in only 751 innings (11th)
2006: +3 in 220 innings.

1st base is not in play other then in your own mind.

Where can I find +/- data?

If the goal is to build the best team then how does pursuing Tex at the expense Sabathia (it would be either/or, not both) move us toward that goal? I think our chances of getting Sabathia are good, and getting him advances our team much more than acquiring Tex. Being able to put out a starting rotation of CC, Bills, Kershaw, and Kuroda is a supreme advantage for us.

This year, he hasn't improved any in the power department while getting dramatically worse as hitting coach Mickey Hatcher's latest hacktastic hero, as his walk rate's dropped to less than four percent, with no commensurate payoff at the plate. Slick-fielding moderate-powered first basemen who hit .269/.307/.414 against right-handed pitching don't get compared to John Olerud or Wally Joyner, they get "maybe he'll grow up to be Vic Power or even Pete O'Brien if things start going right for him."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7877

Christina Kahrl thinks the Braves got hosed.

571 Bill James Online has it. It's $9 every 3 months. I'm trying it out. It's quite spiffy.

http://www.billjamesonline.net/

571
www.billjamesonline.net is a pay site ($9 per quarter)

www.fieldingbible.com is free but has limited data (only the leaders, and no 2008 data yet)

Why in the world would we put 1B in play? Other than catcher, it's our most turmoil-free position. Loney is not going to the Hall Of Fame, but he's a solid anchor at the corner for years to come. Think Mark Grace, but with a little more power.

559 Kent was underrated defensively when we acquired him four years ago, but his defense is gone now.

568
Kim Ng takes exception to that categorization.

If Yu Darvish is going to get posted this year, do the Dodgers try to get into the market for him, or would that only be a Mets/Yanks/Red Sox shell game for him?

551 -- So you admit your pipe dream of replacing Loney with Teixeira doesn't stand a chance unless there is a new management "team" in place? The problem with expecting that is that however precarious Colletti's position might be right now, he alone among the management team is in danger. Logan White is in no danger of being fired, and in the event Colletti goes, White looks like the favorite (not a guarantee, but the favorite) to replace Colletti. If the new GM is someone other than White, that GM is still not going to be able to get rid White, any more than DePo or Colletti could. White is the king of his own little empire within the Dodger organization, and Loney is the apple of his eye.

568 578 He'll hire someone approved by Torre who also can work with Logan White. Thus, I really think it will be former Yankee employee Kim Ng. What she will do depends on whether McCourt will let her spend the money he won't give anymore to Ned. The signs are that cost-cutting is ahead and we won't land CC unless Ng can cut costs even more by moving someone like JP or Penny. Jones is unmovable except as a DFA.

In the free trial link at billjamesonline.net:

Los Angeles Angels 109
New York Mets 95
Minnesota Twins 89
Los Angeles Dodgers 87
Arizona Diamondbacks 86

564 Good point. Sure we have LaRoche, DeWitt, Hu, and Abreu... but I really doubt any management would be willing to let all 3 infield positions be manned by "rookies." DeWitt playing 2B and Hu (or maybe Furcal) at SS are legitimate question marks.

And we could certainly use a front-of-the-line starter (what team couldn't?). Loney, while maybe he's just average, is solid and is the least of our problems in the infield.

582 Er, those are the hottest teams.

Not that it would necessarily stop him, but McCourt would look (even more) foolish for hiring Depo, firing Depo, hiring Ned, firing Ned, and then hiring one of Depo's assistants.

If you're going to count double plays against a player's performance more than the numbers already do, why not discount one RBI and one run scored for a hitter when he hits a home run?

sure a guy hit 50 home runs and has 150 RBIs, but a third of those were himself, that doesn't seem right.

look i get that double plays are bad - really, the second worst outcome behind a triple play - but at some point you have got to put the ball in play. and just hope that you don't roll your wrists or get over the top of the ball and hit a grounder to the short stop.

What might be a useful is a refresher list of who the Dodgers will definitely or most likely not have coming back next year.

Definitely Gone:
Kent, 2B
(Potential in-house fills, posted without judgment: DeJesus, LaRoche, DeWitt, Ozuna, ...)

Lowe, SP
(Could be replaced by McDonald or another young pitcher; or another FA, from $abathia to someone cheaper)

Furcal, SS (unless the Dodgers get a deal and re-sign him)
(Potential in house fills: DeJesus, Hu, ...)

Blake, 3B
(in house: LaRoche, DeWitt, ...)

Probably gone:
Saito, RP (he will probably retire, if I had to guess; if he comes back really healthy and wants to keep playing maybe the Dodgers re-sign him)

(I'm not counting some of the FA pitchers they have on staff now because who cares?)

Am I missing anyone?

I'm glad i wasn't here for another Loney argument, just to add my little two cents, i find it extremely hard to believe that the dodgers would feel the need to address 3b in the off season with all the other holes this team has..

now if it made sense and a great deal came accross for a guy like tex I of course would be happy to improve the team, but i would be devastated if James became an Angel lol

587 Would Park go anywhere? I'm sure some team would offer a multiyear contract.

587 - isn't Penny gone, too?

590 ~$9M club option.

591 - what are the odds of him coming back? 3:1 he'll be back?

589 - Hard to say. People may see him as a one year wonder in his return to form but I'm sure someone will offer him a good deal and the Dodgers will probably pass, if I had to guess. But maybe not. Either way, they will have most likely 1-2 starter slots to fill next year, by my count. (Assuming Penny is back healthy, and isn't traded, then Bills, Kershaw and Kuroda.) Assuming there isn't some holy miracle and Schmidt comes back to actually pitch again.

586 The numbers that discount double plays from offensive value don't usually involve RBI's.

A home run is still an RBI and a run scored. Double plays count as any old out from the BA/OBP/SLG standpoint. That's why there's a need for a correction.

(Er, yeah, and assuming they exercise the club option on Penny, which I assume they will.)

563 -- When was the last time I wrote expectantly about Loney turning into a 30 HR hitter? Not long ago I think I mentioned that Logan White believes Loney will hit 30 HR's when Loney is 26 or 27, but I think it has been quite a while since I thought he would develop into more than a 20 HR guy. I had hopes for more, and still have some hope, but my expectations for some time have been "limited power, high average."

592 Pretty high? $9M is relatively cheap, and they could always trade him if/when he rebuilds his value.

587
Beimel will be a free agent, and it will be interesting to see if he merits Type B or higher status.

594 How about outs/PAs?

598 He was a Type B last year with a higher ERA (but a lower WHIP, but I can't imagine WHIP factors into Elias rankings).

Park said in interviews around spring training that he wanted to retire as a Dodger. Of course he might be saying that because the Dodgers were the only team to give him a chance out of some sense of obligation to Park. I doubt Park signs for more than a 1.5-2 million per year for two years, and that's similar to what the Saito's deal is. The Dodgers should try to keep Park

I saw it touched upon over the last few days, but what are our potential draft pick scenarios the next season? Which free agents will bring us picks and which would/should be offered arbitration?

As you can see, I'm not being terribly productive during my second-to-last day of work here.

598 - Beimel, right, yes! Thanks. He'll be repped by one Troy from West Virginia.

I would love to bring him back but if he nets a Type B and thus a draft pick, all the better.

Someone should also keep tally of how many potential 1st and supplemental draft picks the Dodgers could have next year (not knowing exactly, yet, of course, and not knowing which they may lose for any of their own FA signings).

Penny has a $2 million buyout. Hard to see the Dodgers not just picking up the option for just $7 million dollars more. In a league where Carlos Silva is getting paid $48 million/4 years for the M's, Penny's at $9 million for one year is a steal.

602 -- I think it is too up in the air to get a read on that just yet.

Okay, how would you handle this proposed batting order?

.677/.710/.839
.500/.524/.750
.684/.696/1.053
.700/.808/1.250
.545/.630/.818
.417/.462/.417
.533/.588/.700
.367/.406/.467
.450/.455/.500
.333/.333/.417
.455/.560/.500
.111/.273/.222

Sorry, our last game of the season is tonight, and I am thinking about shaking things up. We have great defense, but our hitting is struggling.

587 really lowe for sure?

a 3 yr 50 mil for lowe has less of a chance of being a franchise crippler than 160 mil for CC.

i may wanna go after lowe

How do you hit .111 in slow pitch softball?

579 His father says Yu loves Boston.

609

First time playing, very unlucky on some line drives. I am expecting that to turn around. My biggest guess would be pitch selection.

Matt Cain was a Type B last year. Bronson Arroyo, Barry Zito and Dontrelle Willis were Type A. Oy.

Its always in play if there's an upgrade available.

How is signing Tex to replace Loney, any different than signing Druw to replace Pierre?

Just because Pierre/Loney are seen as everyday players under cost control for several years, doesnt mean the Dodgers wont look to upgrade.

You dont know how a new GM will act.

609 Mark Sweeney's on his team.

I would expect Penny's option to be picked up but I also wouldn't be surprised if he were traded quickly if we land Sabathia. I would assume that we could get a couple decent young players for Penny.

609 614

I know it is tempting, but just constructive comments would be great.

Since we're talking theoretically of 2009, there are two more years on Kuroda's contract; some savings would be involved in moving him. I loved the signing but since he has been the poster boy of up and down.

617

I actually like that idea.

Loney, while maybe he's just average, is solid and is the least of our problems in the infield

But LaRoche has a higher upside at 2b or 3b, and DeJesus has a higher upside at SS, than Loney does at 1b IMO.

Of course, he's solid.
But if the Dodgers are going to make a move above mediocrity, there going to need to invest in superstars and put their faith in high upside youngsters.

Loney is solid. But his best attribute is his salary. His upside is limited and he's not a superstar. He's prime trade bait.

If you're going to count double plays against a player's performance more than the numbers already do, why not discount one RBI and one run scored for a hitter when he hits a home run?

Thats a good point.
But then again, most people here dont really care about runs scored or RBIs to begin with for some of the reasons you sight.

615 I'm not sure why the D's would feel inclined to move Penny with a potential rotation of:
Sabathia
Bills
Penny
Kershaw
Kuroda

617 - Isn't Kuroda used to pitching on a 6-day rotation?

Torre mentioned he's using an off day to give him 5 days between starts, so we'll see if that helps.

607
.677/.710/.839
.545/.630/.818
.700/.808/1.250
.533/.588/.700
.684/.696/1.053
.455/.560/.500
.450/.455/.500
.500/.524/.750
.367/.406/.467
.417/.462/.417
.111/.273/.222
.333/.333/.417

Message to underdog: You didn't chase me away, I had to go out. Can't wait til my son gets his g.d. driver's license.

So, I didn't get to see your emoticon-adorned lineup til this morning and it was awesome (even though I didn't understand the one for Johnson). Hilarious.

So, what's the latest on David Eckstein coming to LA? Do they only want Kemp, or do we have to throw in Hu?

{8*)!

602 Both Brad Penny and Derek Lowe were Type A free agents at the end of last year.

Jeff Kent was a Type A also but he has indicated to TJ Simers that he is done after this year.

Its hard to know where Furcal will end up, he was a Type B at the end of last year, had he stayed healthy and even fallen back to career norms, he might have snuck back up to an A, now he still could hang on and remain a Type B.

And was talked about on Saturday, Casey Blake will probably be hovering between a Type B and Type A.

Right now there are 12 teams with better records than the NL West leader Arizona and 15 teams with better record than the Dodgers.

Now, it is certainly possible the Dodgers will cut Penny lose, sign Lowe to 2 year deal (maybe give a limited no-trade in his first year, his second year, he will be a 10-5 player), send a gold watch to Kent, and watch Casey Blake re-up with Cleveland. I think with Furcal, they will wait and see how he looks and he may one of those things we won't know about until November.

621 - Part of the motivation would be to save money, but the other part would be to acquire other pieces with one of our few attractive trade chips. Assuming Penny pitches decently the rest of the way, he is a low-cost #2 that could bring something valuable back our way. The rotation with Penny is great, no doubt, but is it substantially worse if the five spot is filled by McDonald/Schmidt/Stults et al?

617 /618 - There's this little matter of Kuroda coming to L.A for a reason and he has full no trade protection.

626 If we do nothing this offseason, we have three known factors in the rotation: Penny, Bills, and Kuroda. One of those spots probably goes to Kershaw (who's probably only good for ~150 innings) and the other one is going to Schmidt/McDonald/Kuo. If we don't keep Penny, we're giving two slots to a giant question mark. We have to keep him.

619--You don't need superstars at every position to win a title. The core of the team--Martin, Loney, Kemp, Ethier, Broxton, Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuo--should be left to ripen together. Hopefully LaRoche will join their number.

619 There's a line between guys with high upside and actually producing. Loney's producing, and is frankly not a problem on this team. Just switching in Texiera for Loney wouldn't solve the Dodgers offensive problems. This is still a lineup that uses Jeff Kent at the cleanup spot, and has a player making $18 million a year sitting on the bench, not to mention all the people on the DL.

Let me put it another, if you offer Loney on the trade market, about 20 or so teams would try to trade for him. Partly because of his contract, but mostly because he's a good player. Who the heck would pay Texieria $20 million when they have a guy like Loney under their control? Not even the spend crazy Yanks would do that deal, the BoSox wouldn't do that deal, so why would the Dodgers?

604
Potential draft picks to be netted by the Dodgers:

Type A
Lowe
Blake
Penny (unlikely since they'll probably pick up his option)

Type B
Furcal
Beimel
Kent (unlikely since he'll retire)

If the Dodgers offer arbitration to all six of these players and they sign elsewhere, the maximum draft pick return would be 3 first rounders* and 6 supplemental picks.

The most likely scenario is that they get 2 1st rounders* and 3 supplemental picks, for Lowe, Blake, and Beimel.

Of course the Dodgers will give their first rounder to Milwaukee. :)

*If one club signs more than one Type A FA, the draft picks can be 2nd or 3rd rounders depending on the Elias score of said players. For instance, if Toronto signed Sabathia and Lowe, Milwaukee would get the Jays' 1st rounder because CC ranks higher than Lowe, and the Dodgers would get Toronto's 2nd rounder.

623

Thanks, that was helpful

628 - My assumption with regard to trading Penny is that we have signed Sabathia, otherwise I agree we would need to keep Penny.

[607}
.111/.273/.222

Please tell me this is co-ed

There appears to be a NPUT.

NPUT

619 I'm just talking about focusing our efforts on fixing our weakest points first. Juan Pierre is our 3rd best outfielder. Will DeJesus be ready next season? Are we ready to hand the full-time 2B job to DeWitt/LaRoche?

I understand that a team of average players is bad, but we're not even average at a lot of positions.

Thanks Eric and BH, both very helpful.

624 Hee. No worries! I figured. (Er, sorry about the teen-car struggles, though.) And that emoticon for Jason Johnson was a crying face. And I guess that jinxed things in his favor. Sorry, JJJ! You pitched great, buddy.

Speaking of which, see Jon's new post up top.

619 - lots of championship teams have guys who are simply "solid". Youkolis, Lowell in Boston; O'Neil, Brosious in New York; G. Anderson in Anaheim.

Your missing the forest for the trees that are Big Tex and Weird Game James.

Paul Anka: To stop those monsters 1-2-3,
Here's a fresh new way that's trouble-free,
It's got Paul Anka's guarantee...
Lisa: Guarantee void in Tennessee.
All: Just don't look! Just don't look!
Just don't look! Just don't look!
Just don't look! Just don't look!