A .926 OPS 'decline' sounds REALLY good over Andruw Jones and/or Juan Pierre. It's only that low because of a bad month of May. 2 months plus of Manny and he's motivated. He could be scary good.

teams will pause before committing to an expensive, long term deal

Famous last words. It only takes one out of 30 GMs to give the long contract. And since there'll be competition for Manny, one of them will probably give in. What is it about free agent history that would make us expect otherwise?

Wish we had caution when we signed Andruw Rudolf Jones to a two year deal.

Tom posted a quick analysis over on his blog.

http://fifthoutfielder.blogspot.com/

Rob's calling you out Jon

Jon Weisman offers an even-handed look at the Manny Ramirez deal from the Dodgers' perspective -- or rather, from a Dodger fan's perspective -- but what does he mean when he writes this: "[I]t gets the press off the Dodgers' backs without forcing them to give up any young players off the current roster." Isn't Andy LaRoche both young and on the current roster? It's clear that management had little faith in LaRoche, not surprising considering that management is mostly Ned Colletti. But I do suspect that the next four years of Andy LaRoche will wind up being significantly more valuable than the next two (or three) months of Manny Ramirez.

Since I got LAT'd here is my last post from the previous topic:

White may be riding the coattails of the 2002/2003 drafts but I was looking into it, and Chad Billingsley is arguably better than every single player picked ahead of him, definitely better than every pitcher picked ahead of him, and he went 24th overall. Remember the big debate and the 11th hour decision with Delmon Young and Rickie Weeks? They wasted their time, should have picked Billingsley number 1 overall.

Silva sounds about right to me. What I worry about is the spiral of self-defeating overspending. As long as this is a rental, I think I might can live with it. At the end of the season though, there will still only be two decent outfielders, a need for 2b, 3b, and maybe SS. Man I hope Penny comes back full bore.

Anyone interested in Lo Duca for the minimum? He was released by the Nationals.

OK, I have a question to the baseball intelligencia out there.

How are wins that a player is responsible for calculated? Then is there a stat other than something like walk off hits or game-winning RBIs that can quantify the impact in retrospect?

The reason that I am asking is that if Manny's expected wins are around 1.25-2, how can that be examined in November if he, say, had 2 walk-off homeruns and 6 game winning RBIs. Someone made the comment yesterday that 8 theoretical Juan Pierres playing 8 theoretical Manny Ramirezs would only be something like 8 games better at the end of the season, which seems to be absurd (Sorry, but I looked for the post and could not find it among the 2000 from yesterday).

In the end, if Manny has 8 game-winning hits, coldn't we at least say that the difference between him and the player he is replacing (Jones/Pierre theoretically) is 6 wins?

5 Rob Neyer that is.

5

How do you assign a value to a team having a shot at post season success after an embarrassing 20 year dry spell. I seriously think the franchise needs to taste success. Sooner rather than later. Its becoming kind of a joke not being a factor in October every year with a $100M payroll. This gives us a shot- now we just have to see if it works.

5 - I know. I e-mailed him - I don't think he realized LaRoche had been optioned.

11 The problem is you (and most people) are using the following formula: Manny = we win.

The reality is that Manny = some small % increase in our chances to make the playoffs (and that assumes Manny = no Jones and very little Pierre).

Think about what this team would have been like this year with Manny instead of Jones. Manny definitely equals we win. He fills the exact hole at the exact right time.

I do suspect that the next four years of Andy LaRoche will wind up being significantly more valuable than the next two (or three) months of Manny Ramirez.

I do suspect that also. However, that is not the test of this trade. This is a once in a generation type of trade. No matter what happens from here on out, at this moment in time, the Dodgers have to make this trade. It makes so much sense on the playing field, so much more off the playing field. It makes the Dodgers contenders and rejuvenates the franchise. I think there is a 50-50 chance that LaRoche might end up becoming an All-Star. But I also do suspect that his back problems might limit his upside. Either way, we don't know. What we do know is that Manny gives us a better chance of winning this year. A significantly better chance. And sometimes you have to take that chance. And you have to give up something to get that chance. Now if the Dodgers had traded away 3-4 elite prospects in this deal, I'd be the first to criticize them. But for one good prospect, this deal is so worth it.

13 - There's also the formula LaRoche=above-average third baseman. I happen to subscribe to that formula, but the reality is LaRoche also equals some % increase in the Dodgers' chances to make the playoffs.

13 The question isn't whether Manny = we win. The questions is Manny > LaRoche this year and in 2009-2012, LaRoche does not guarantee "we win" either.

13
I think that goes back to my question of "How do we evaluate this in retrospect?" How do we know how much Manny was worth to the Red Sox for their Championship seasons in terms of actual wins over someone like Juan Pierre manning LF?

I have the utmost respect for numbers in baseball. Most of them in fact. Manny Ramirez over Jones alone is a massive upgrade. I don't need numbers to see that, it's obvious. He'll strike out and he'll GIDP. But, in the end it's Manny and he'll deliver. It's as subjective as subjective gets. I'm not ashamed to say that. I'm all giddy in anticipation of tonight.

The bottom line is that Manny is a the type of transcendent bat the Dodgers have been looking for since...well, umm...Mike Piazza? Gary Sheffied? He will hit, and he will make the Dodgers offense better.

A declining Manny is a lot better than anyone else on the team right now. The topping on the cake? We gave up NOTHING for him. Please save the "Andy Laroche will be a star" comments.

16 the reality is LaRoche also equals some % increase in the Dodgers' chances to make the playoffs

Do you think that is true for 2008 or for the future? Because in 2008, unfortunately, I did not see LaRoche getting even 50 at bats with the club unless Blake gets injured, and even then, the way Dewitt is mashing the ball now, LaRoche may still not have played.

From Heyman's new article:

"The Dodgers, the storied West Coast franchise without a World Series title in 20 years and with a lot of front-office tension following a few recent failed free-agent signings..."

What failed free-agent signings?

Also, I was disheartened when I saw someone point out all the superstars on LA teams now. They mentioned the Galaxy, Chivas USA and the Sparks, but not the Kings. C'mon, you mentioned the Sparks!

15 - I agree, at some point you have to play for today rather than tomorrow. The Dodgers are in a spot to make the play offs, they match up well against the other play off teams, given their pitching (and their non-reliance on homeruns to score runs, which will be important come playoff time).

Yes, the team is flawed. Yes, there are issues galore for next year (left field, third, short, second, a spot in the rotation). But that doesn't mean that the Dodgers can't win now, or at least take a shot at winning now, and then deal with those problems.

21 - Well, there are two planes on which to answer that question - what might have been had the Dodgers given LaRoche a full chance, and what the reality was given that the Dodgers weren't.

16 No. That is incomplete. LaRoche (and every player, I guess) certainly = some small % (increase or decrease) in the Dodgers chances of making the playoffs this year. Unlike Manny, however, LaRoche = [whatever his value is through 2013]. Manny's only additional value to the small increase in playoff % is the compensatory draft picks.

I also subscribe to your evaluation of LaRoche and am very happy for him that he has escaped Los Angeles. There were many talented people in the Dodgers organization that suffered the day DePodesta was fired. LaRoche was certainly one of them. I'll be melancholy following his career with the Pirates thinking of what should have been.

There have been studies in psychology and other fields that show that people (in general) are very bad at calculating things in their heads (e.g., probablities, generate a random number, etc.), and it seems this holds for guessing the number of wins a player like Manny adds. My guess, without running numbers, would have been 5 or so. A bit more thought pares that number down to 2-3.

Notwithstanding analysis telling me otherwise, I find myself currently in a Manny=we win! state of mind. I think this may be the first time ever that, this late in the season, I've felt good about our chances of doing well in the postseason.

Just wondering what record the "Manny = wins" people are predicting for the final 54 games of the season?

9
The problem lies in giving full credit to Manny for the win if he gets a game-winning hit. If his hit gives the Dodgers a 3-2 win, Manny is not 100% responsible for the win. There are many with varying degrees of responsibility, including:

1) the pitching
2) the player who scored the winning run
3) the players responsible for the previous runs leading up to the Manny game-winner

19

It's also worth noting that Jones was playing at a level way way worse than "the worst player in baseball". Trading him for a fungo and a bag of balls is probably worth 2 wins. I cant wait for the line up to come out.

19 A lot of people hate admitting that subjective side of their argument. I'm a math guy, I am quick to chastise someone who goes with a gut feeling over numbers, etc. But there are literally thousands of Dodger fans who are as excited as you are. And for the price we paid, that feeling is worth it. Of course it would suck if we win nothing and LaRoche becomes a huge star. But, there are no guarantees, and again, for the price paid, this is a good trade.

22
I am tone deaf when reading posts...Are you serious about the FA part?

22 - I can name the coach and two players on the Sparks. I can't name anyone that has played on the Kings in the last five years.

And I'm not (much of) a WNBA fan.

21 The problem there is that to get Blake's production (or close to it) in 2008 all we had to do was play LaRoche. To get Blake to give us Blake's production we had to sacrifice two prospects, one near major-league ready and another that projects as close to average at his position. The only thing worse than the Manny deal this year might well have been the Blake deal that allowed it to happen.

Did anyone see Gordon Edes story in the Boston Globe today?
http://tinyurl.com/5owsan

But when he awakened yesterday in Malibu, Calif., having flown back from Boston the night before, McCourt expected a quiet morning on the beach. Several days earlier, the Dodgers had rejected a deal proposed by Sox general manager Theo Epstein that would have cost LA Andre Ethier, a blossoming young outfielder neither McCourt nor GM Ned Colletti was prepared to give up.

27

Given the schedule I think 30-24 is reasonable. Maybe better.

Oh, okay, I thought he meant guys we tried to sign but couldn't, not guys we did sign that suck. Whoops.

15 I love Manny as much as the next guy, but the Dodgers didn't have to make the trade.

Like Eric Enders pointed out, he's the Latino Milton Bradley. Some of the same people that were happy Bradley is gone are celebrating Manny Ramirez coming to the Dodgers, which I find hilarious. Only in LA.

32 Really? Rob Blake? Luc Robitaille? Brady Murray? ...Okay, I guess only I'd remember that last one.

34
Several days earlier, the Dodgers had rejected a deal proposed by Sox general manager Theo Epstein that would have cost LA Andre Ethier, a blossoming young outfielder neither McCourt nor GM Ned Colletti was prepared to give up

That's a sucker punch for me. I would much rather have given up Ethier than LaRoche. But, I'll just chalk that up to speculation until I hear it from another source, lest my blood starts boiling.

34 Wow. we chose to keep Either and give-up LaRoche. That also strikes me as clearly the wrong move. Blake can play RF.

30
An easier way to quantify this for McCourt is attendance and a bump in revenue (8 people in my office are going to games this weekend with their families who had no interest before this).

I think that you are right. We tend to favor the stats side of things here, so it is almost too easy to talk ourselves out of being giddy because the numbers say only 1-2 extra wins will come of this.

37
I like Milton Bradley as much as the next guy, but Milton is no Manny Ramirez. Milton might have a higher OPS this season, but I'd like to see what he'd put up or how long he'd last if he had to play the field everyday.

25 - I thought the part about LaRoche through 2013 was implied in what I wrote.

38 - Blake and Luc played for the Kings in the last five years? I just remembered them moving on the Colorado to get rings. Didn't realize they came back.

9. You can look at a stat like WAR and pro-rate it out for how many games Manny will play for the Dodgers and subtract from that what the WAR would've been from the players that would've played in his place had he not been traded for. Since LaRoche wasn't going to play much for the team this year anyways, you don't have to factor for him (if you are only looking at this year). You can't really look at game winning hits as the quantitative method for how many wins a player is worth. You could look at WPA, but it has flaws that can over and under inflate total wins added. As far as 8 Manny's vs 8 Pierre's, I assume you give each team the same pitching staff and don't worry about defense(??). The team with all Manny's would probably win 25-35 more games (taking a swag at it).
vr, Xei

Maybe I am singular in the sense that I never like to be one to say I told you so. I am not saying I have never done that but it does seem like a lot of the analysis here and elsewhere is done in a sense that if things fail, well I told you so and even if things don't, well there was a possibility that it could work.

And of course, there is the proviso that no one roots for things to fail.

Unfortunately no one ever says they were wrong as loudly as they said they were right.

For those unaware Manny will be speaking to the media at 4 p.m.

28
So what metric can be used to figure wins after the season? With all the new stats that have been created to give a better game-to-game picture of a player's worth, there has to be something like this out there...

39
Bad move by McCourt if that is true.

41 , 48 i would believe it's true, they are in love with DeWitt and believe he'll be better than LaRoche. So they're more likely to trade LaRoche than Dre

43 Sorry if I missed that implication then. I probably just read it too out of context from your other posts, since I think we are probably on the same page where Manny and LaRoche are concerned.

7
For now it looks like the Dodgers will have the following 2009 team:

C Martin
1B Loney
2B Abreu/Dejesus/DeWitt
3B DeWitt
SS Hu/Abreu
LF Pierre/Ethier
CF Kemp
RF Ethier

Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda, Sabathia, Park, Kuo, Stultz, Wade, Elbert, Miller, McDonald, Broxton, Biemel, Brazabon, Troncoso, Saito, Schmidt, Penny.

The defense would be outstanding and the pitching should be as well, especially if Sabathia is added.

The Dodgers could improve offensively at every position, some much more so than others, but every position already has what I consider a MLB capable player.

I think I might prefer to start the season with this team plus Sabathia and have room in the payroll to add a rental stud.

I would be least bothered if Jones, Pierre, Penny, Schmidt, Kuroda were to be traded and most bothered if Kent, Nomar, Manny, were re-signed.

38. Is Rob Blake, Casey Blake's brother? Did Robitaille alway play for the Kings? I know his name, but I didn't even realize that he still played hockey. Brady Murray doesn't even sound like a hockey player, I'm convinced that you are making that one up.

24 If we had given LaRoche a full chance and he had performed as expected, then I would think he would be as valuable to the Dodgers as someone like Loney or Kemp has become. But, for a number of reasons, he never got that chance and his value within our organization dropped. Luckily, I guess, other organizations value him higher and we got Manny for him. Now, he was not going to get a chance in 2008 and with the confidence shown in Dewitt, wrongly or rightly, we don't know how much the Dodgers valued him going forward.

In an ideal world, LaRoche could have become a star for us and instead of trading for Blake, we could have gotten Manny for Santana, Meloan and Morris. But oh well.

LaRoche's 171 career AB's probably isn't enough of an evaluation, but its also not insignificant either and it completely supports what those scouts said on the Pirates website. Over rated and struggles against good pitching. Add in Whites comment- (regardless of context, he wasn't too disappointed)
What do people feel are the odds LaRoche makes an all-star team in the next 8 years?

48
Win Probability Added (WPA) is a good tool. It's over at fangraphs.com.

WPA (win probability added): WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players' WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA.

Manny Ramirez is 5th in MLB in WPA as a batter.

http://tinyurl.com/6z7kpe

However, this does not account for defense.

From the last thread:

I really don't see how you can see Logan White as a negative. Even if you discount 2002 and 2003 (which were amazing enough that you should get years of failed drafts to work with) he's taken the following players that have been relevant to the Dodgers:

Blake DeWitt, Blake Johnson, Cory Wade, Justin Ruggiano, Sergio Pedroza, Jonathan Meloan, Clayton Kershaw, and Bryan Morris

This doesn't include guys like Elbert, DeJesus and Lambo that will be able to help the team soon.

That's a pretty good haul for a team that drafts guys that should need four or five years of development time. Compare this to the Ed Creech drafts that gave us a stretch where we didn't take anyone relevant except Paul Konerko (after that Alex Cora was his best pick). How on Earth can you argue that Logan White is hurting the team?

Who doesn't struggle against good pitching? That's the definition of good pitching - it makes hitters struggle.

LaRoche's 171 career AB's

It is my opinion that LaRoche was not 100% healthy for those ABs, and I don't really expect him to be 100% this season.

27. I am running 20 seasons with Manny in the lineup (OF of Manny/Kemp/Ethier, SS=Berroa) on my simulator to determine just this. The first three sims, the Dodgers have gone 30-24, 22-32, and 29-25. I will post the results at DodgerSims later, after 20 seasons of data are run.
vr, Xei

Completely off topic, but I didn't realize how bad Brandon Wood has been in the majors. I know it's only 101 PA's but he has a -1 OPS+. Makes Andruw Jones look like Babe Ruth (insert fat joke here).

58. Completely agree, I don't think we'll know much about LaRoche and if he can hit for power in the Majors until next year, as long as he is healthy.

Rob Blake can't grow a beard so there's no way he can be Casey Blake's brother.

Luc Robitaille's retired now and is the Kings' president of business operations.

Brady Murray is former coach Andy Murray's son and is not very good. He's the Ramon Martinez (the bad one) of the hockey world.

54 Not too great. He's never going to be better than David Wright or Ryan Zimmerman.

I don't think many people thought LaRoche was going to be a superstar. He's an .800-.850 OPS third baseman with a decent glove. All I wanted was for him to get a chance over the completely useless players we've played there the last few years.

47
I hope hope that he can talk while avoiding the distraction of Bill Plaschke licking Manny's shoes clean while he chants "prospects are dumb...prospects are dumb..."

63. Exactly. And if you can save some money with a cheap and slightly above average player at one position, it opens up a lot of money that can be spent for a larger impact at a different position. Unfortunately, all of our so-called "impact" players, made their impact either on the DL or were never "impacts" to begin with. :)
vr, Xei

If McCourt and Ned really turned down Ethier to Boston, than the OF better be Manny/Kemp/Ethier for the majority of the remaining games. Big IF

159 from the last thread

That video is awful. How do you make that mistake in a professional setting and when you are producing a video for the MLB website?

42 Yeah, actually he is. He's a flashy player with "team chemistry" issues. The only difference is Manny had ESPN to squash any talk of his antics with the ultra effective "That's just Manny being Manny". Milton was up against Bill Plaschke and numerous other villains.

63 - All he has to do is be the best Pirate to make the All-Star team.

August is gonna be tough. Besides the 6 games the Dodgers play against the Dbacks, there are 14 very tough games (8/Phillies, 3/Cards, 3/Brewers), 6 tough games (3/Giants, 3 Rockies), and 3 easy games (Nationals).

At the same time, the Dbacks will have 3 very tough games (Fla), and 19 much easier games (3/Pirates, 4/Braves, 3/Rockies, 3/Houston, 6/Padres).

I'm sure someone can run some simulators and analyze statistics, but just glancing at the schedule looks very scary for the Dodgers.

He's an .800-.850 OPS third baseman

Any chance he could be an .800-.850 OPS second baseman instead?

And I'd be tempted to bad him in the leadoff spot, especially until/unless his power returns.

39 , 58 Maybe, the Dodgers feel that LaRoche will never be 100%. I don't know if that's right or wrong, but maybe that's how they strongly feel. Otherwise I don't see Logan White choosing Ethier over LaRoche.

68

....with Bay and Nady gone thats not asking too much.

68
I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you.

69. haha. Yes, the simulator is ALSO not liking our August schedule that much. Good point.
vr, Xei

Tony Pena is having a worse season than Jones, this year.

63 True, but Nate McClouth's making it look like that won't be as easy as it sounds.

70 He could, but then "decent glove" turns into "terrible glove". Then again, Jeff Kent's been doing that during his entire Dodger tenure.

70 - Freudian?

55
Thanks. I like the idea of Xei running the data through a Sim...

Would it be bad if we resigned Blake to a 1-2 year contract and let DeWitt take over 2b after Kent leaves? Seems better than overpaying for Mark Ellis or Orlando Hudson.

69 I don't understand how the Dodgers playing the Giants and Rockies are tough games, but the DBacks playing the Padres and Rockies are much easier games.

77
Itchy left middle finger, I guess...

I like that the Bucks gave Andy the start today. Might as well see what they got asap.

57 Manny!

78 I'd rather have a good player than a bad one.

I see a lot of intentional walks to Manny coming in a line-up made up with any combination of Kemp,Casey,Kent,Loney, and Martin; versus the line-up that surrounded Manny in Boston with David Ortiz,Mike Lowell, J.D.Drew, Kevin Youkilis. And secondly I see a rise in the numbers of errors by the Dodgers as well!

84 I'll gladly take the IBBs. Especially since Manny will probably have Kemp and Martin hitting ahead of him.

Isn't it hard to imagine the McCourts giving their checkbook back to Colletti, this winter? They put a hard salary cap on him at the trade deadline, ostensibly because of his previous forays into the FA market; is it all forgiven if Manny leads the team to the playoffs?

I've never been a fan of the "blame DePo for every bad draft pick and credit White for the good ones" mentality, but the 2004 and 2005 drafts are way, way worse than White's other ones.

79 My "rankings" kinda broke down a bit at the end there, but my point was it doesn't look pretty. The one thing we have going for us is the Dbacks play the Rockies at in Colorado and we get them at The Stadium.

Hopefully the Padres will continue to play the Dbacks tough, but I think the overall point is that we have to play the Phillies, Cards, and Brewers for half the month while the Dbacks will be playing teams that are under .500.

Andy's up.

86 - There is reason to think McCourt is learning as he goes.

"In play, no out" for LaRoche...

Infield single.

Scrappy.

Not to be a downer because I agree that prospects should be utilized and coveted. But even though they would save us money, at what point does it become prospect overload? Meaning sure were saving boat-loads of cash to get a superstar but where is he going to play?

C: Martin
1B: Loney
2B: Not many available superstars at this position
SS: Again not many available at this position
3B: You have a shot at finding a stud on the market
OF: Kemp
OF: Ethier
OF: Jones/Pierre (would McCourt really want to spend a significant amount of money for this position...again?)
SP: Arguably could find studs here but at a premium cost when pitching is the least of our worries

With the young players on our current roster, we really are roadblocked from adding a true impact bat and I hate to say it but having LaRoche would have complicated that problem even more. Not saying that we can find a good replacement for LaRoche next year on the market but their are at least a lot more impact bats that can play 3B as opposed to SS and 2B.

88 I agree with your point overall. It is a tougher schedule for the Dodgers. Hopefully Furcal can come back by Sept 1st.

The Bucs get a leadoff hitter

84
Dodger LF this year: .979 Fielding %, 5 errors, 5 assists
Manny this year: .991 Fielding %, 1 error, 6 assists

No park factors here since Fenway is the smallest LF in the Majors. I see a severe drop in range when he is playing LF as opposed to Dre and Pierre, but not a great increase in errors.

97 - Any way to get his road defensive numbers?

I like the TCM ad with Eddie Albert and his cop moustache.

LaRoche gets a hit in his first AB as a Pirate, and is standing at third with men on the corners and one out

Ethier has an OPS of .779 in his age 26 season. Do people generally see this as his peak. Is he going to be an .800 OF for the next ten years or is there any reason to believe that a couple more years of facing the NL pitcher might eventually make him a closer to .875 OF.

And LaRoche scores his first run as a Pirate on a Jack Wilson RBI single. Jason Marquis is, as usual, struggling against a good offensive club.

102 A few weeks ago I thought we would have LaRoche scoring on Jack Wilson singles at Dodger Stadium...how quickly things change.

94 Available useful players in the next two years:

2B: Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, Brian Roberts, Placido Polanco
SS: Rafael Furcal, Miguel Tejada
3B: Adrian Beltre, Chipper Jones

If the Dodgers fail to win the division, I would say that chances are really good that Ned will be gone.

But, if they do win the division, that would be 2 playoff appearances in 3 years and it would be difficult to fire him in that scenario.

Now, the Dodgers might not be players in FA market like they have been in the first 3 winters of Ned's run of the organization but I wouldn't expect them to sit idly by either.

94
I like the idea (not sure this will be popular) of doing everything we can to sign Teixeira and Sabbathia. We could then trade Loney for a 2B or SS and be set at every position. McCourt would have to lose money next year until Schmidt, Penny, and Jones come off the payroll, but by then there are very few holes on the team and we could have a team that is under control for the most part for the next three years.

Nice plan, but I seem to remember Carlos Lee and Alfonso Soriano hanging up on Ned two years ago...

I realize many have high expectations for Laroche. I have not seen it at the MLB level, but understand the effects of injury and inconsistent playing time.

What is it statistically that gives such expectation for Laroche? I'd like to learn a bit here, and I know that looking at his MLB OPS+ of 72 isn't fair.

Dodgers, to me, have had many "promising" talent in the minors, only to never live up to MLB expectations. What makes Laroche different? Is it a certain statistic or a "nice looking swing when his arms extend" type thing. Is it qualitative or quantitative analysis?

106 I don't think that will happen, I mean I do think there will be some concern about revenues being stagnant especially if the economy remains the same (I think its gas prices and economic woes hurting the Dodgers attendance more than the actual play)

107 Find someone with his minor league numbers that didn't have a good career in the majors.

Oddly, the .217-hitting LaRoche is hitting fifth, ahead of the .279-hitting Wilson, batting eighth. Brother Adam is not in the lineup because of an intercostal muscle strain; he hit the DL retroactive to July 28.

Ouch...

*Greg (LA): It's fascinating the game the LAD are playing. They have no money (I was there last Sunday and they didn't have 25,000 people in the stands). They have to give away prospects to get the other teams to pay salaries (Manny and Blake). They're going to let all of their FA's go - Lowe, Manny, Kent, Nomar, Blake. All because of Schmidt and Jones. They're just like FL - load up for one year, then break it down.

Keith Law: (2:30 PM ET ) The difference is that in Florida, that's the plan.*

85 The point I am making is that by pitching around Manny, either by IBB's or by not giving him anything good to swing at, you still need people behind him that are good at driving in runs. The fact is, the Dodgers have been a low scoring team all year. Will Manny help the Dodgers score more runs?? Of course! Like I said before, I see a lot more pitching around Manny now, than with the line-up that surrounded him in Boston!

Good video of Manny being Manny at Diamond's blog.

106 I like the plan, but what team would trade a major league ready middle infield for James Loney?

While trying to decide if it was best to play for the present by trading one part of the future I think the real winner here is Frank McCourt.

Manny will put butts in the seats, he will probably get some post season money, tons of great publicity for his team since ESPN will now pay attention to our team as they wait with bated breath to see how Torre and Manny hang, and it didn't cost him a penny. From a financial standpoint Frank is going to be very happy that Manny is in left field for the rest of 2008 and that LaRoche is in Pittsburgh.

Maybe we don't make the playoffs, it is not like we are a cinch, but who here hasn't had associates talking to them about the Dodgers who two days ago couldn't have cared less?

Morris will probably end up the better player then LaRoche just because everyone is ignoring him.

OT - Didn't DY get hit in the mouth earlier this year by a ball or something? The reason I ask is because my sister-in-law lives in Malibu and works for a dentist office and she said that one of the doctors is the team dentist and he had to fix up one of the players' teeth after a fight or something. I don't remember any fights so I am trying to place who that might have been.

51 That lineup looks an awful lot like the lineups that we had earlier this summer, when the team couldn't score any runs.

The Dodgers have a lot of solid, complementary players, but unless Kemp takes a huge leap forward, the team needs to find a difference-making, impact hitter in the worst way. We have not had one since the days of Piazza/Sheffield, and Beltre 2004. I don't think there's gonna be much available in the free-agent pool, except for Manny.

112 We're really good at hitting singles, so more base runners are always appreciated.

The Pirates are getting scorned because they airmailed a pitch when they were going around the horn.

110
ouch.

Apparently the Yahoo box score thinks LaRoche has switched leagues, as it lists his batting average as 1.000.

Ahh... It's nice to be able to have my Jamba Juice at lunch today and not worry about seeing some shocking news that will make me spit it out. Yesterday was nerve-wracking. Exciting, memorable, but nerve-wracking. {Slurp} Ahhh...

95 That reminds me. I know someone asked this yesterday, but what's the latest prognosis on Furcal? Odds are early September return? 50-50?

With his injury, as much as I like him, I was against the idea of re-signing him next year, but now I'm not so sure. With the possible losses they have next year and IF he wasn't as expensive as he might have been, I could see re-signing him and then having Hu or DeJesus play 2nd next year. Guess we'll have to see.

120 And Manny's hitting .000. Horrible trade.

116
It was in San Diego in April. I was there for that game, and couldn't tell what all the commotion was about near the Dodger bullpen. Young was struck by a BP line drive.

From Tony Jackson on that day:

"He was standing in the bullpen during batting practice, talking to someone, and a ball hit by Russell Martin hit him just above the right eye. He was on the ground for several minutes, then walked off, obviously woozy, with trainer Stan Conte. A quick exam revealed no concussion, and there was never any loss of consciousness."

I drool at the possibility of this lineup tonight...realizing Kent will bat higher than he should

Kemp, CF
Ethier, RF
Martin, C
Manny, LF
Kent, 2B
Loney, 1B
Blake, 3B
Berroa, SS
Kershaw, P

Man, that would be fun

Andrew-would you trade a $10 2009 contract of Justin Upton in his 21 year old season for the $3 2009 contract of Andy Laroche in his 25 year old season now that he has a full time position?
Slub/OB/RBI/Runs/SB/AVG/HR are the categories.

109 - This is from B-R, 2003, top OPS in minor league:

1 Vito Chiaravalloti
2 Ryan Fitzgerald
3 Lou Palmisano
4 Miguel Cabrera
5 Craig Ansman
6 Jon Weber
7 Wladimir Balentien
8 Fernando Seguignol
9 Bubba Crosby
10 Billy Martin
11 Chris Shelton
12 Brandon Larson
13 Dallas McPherson
14 Kevin Davidson
15 Tyler Davidson
16 Jeremy Reed
17 Mike Aviles
18 Ricardo Nanita
19 Josh Willingham
20 Brandon Powell

I do recognize a few names, but not most.

121
Thank you for inspiring my lunch decision. Off to Jamba Juice!

115 ...he will probably get some post season money...

See, that's still the thing I don't think almost anyone is counting properly. Without Manny we were a longshot to make the playoffs. Yesterday (before both our loss and before Manny) BP had our playoff odds at 35% (they do this based on a 1,000,000 "rest of season" monte carlo). Today (post loss and post Manny) we sit at 30%. In other words,

1. to put Manny's acquisition in perspective, losing the game last night overwhelmed any benefit of adding Manny; and

2. Even with Manny we are still unlikely to make the playoffs.

If we do not make the playoffs, I assume everyone would agree that Manny and Blake were trades with devastating results, no?

So if you agree with that AND take a realistic approach to what adding Blake and Manny mean to our 2008 playoff odds, I can't see why anyone would be happy.

125 Is there any possibility of keeping Upton beyond that?

128 Have they incorporated Manny into those odds yet? If they haven't put Manny on the team and they aren't the PECOTA projections those are based on third order win percentage up to this point.

Charley Steiner has no vote but at the close of his radio program he said in his most objective view, the outfield should be Manny in left, Kemp in center and Ethier in right.

I just think that would pain Torre a lot particular because in his opinion I am sure Pierre has done nothing to deserve not to play (I said in Torre's opinion). But he already said Kemp is going to be a special player and he thinks Ethier has been doing a good job and improved during the season.

Well I hope I owe Jon $14 on DT picnic day.

127 I was bad though and got the Peanut Butter Moo'd! It's not the healthiest of their smoothies, though it's not too bad for ya and mmmmm is it good.

--

Btw, re:
111 I guess I'm not surprised Keith Law couldn't be bothered to point this out but I have to say something. The guy writes "They have no money (I was there last Sunday and they didn't have 25,000 people in the stands)." Is he talking about the Washington Nationals series?? That's proof that they don't have money and aren't drawing fans? That's just ludicrous. The Dodgers are once again drawing fantastically well this season. When they don't fill their huge stadium every game people think it looks empty (and even McCourt was worrying about this for no good reason) and therefore no one cares.

That said, if nothing else the Manny trade will be putting more butts in seats, starting tonight. The place is gonna be filled up even more, guaranteed. The trade might pay for itself (even though it's already paid for itself) from just the attendance numbers.

130 yes and yes.

126 Did any of those guys walk more than they struck out? How many were 29 year old AAAA guys?

130 well, third order for expectations and actual for starting record.

126
The vast majority of that list is players too old for their league. Not to mention it doesn't account for park effects.

Miguel Cabrera stands out as a 20-year old in AA.

128 I'm pretty happy with the deals regardless what happens.

128 I still don't see a scenario where the Manny trade is devastating. Losing one player who might be our starting 3B next year for two draft picks may not be good, but it's hardly devastating.

123 - Thanks. I wonder if it was him. I can't remember anyone else really getting knocked in or around the mouth, but I guess those things could happen and we may not necessarily hear about it if it is not serious enough.

126
Doesn't count. Most of those you would not have heard of because they did it after having failed in the majors and were very old for the league.

What Fanerman is talking about is someone who at the age of a prospect, posted the kind of power,patience, and contact ability that LaRoche has displayed in every league he played in.

133 Wouldn't the odds be really close to 50% if we won last night?

If you assume Manny adds about one win he took our playoff odds from 35% to 50ish percent. I still don't know if being 25% more likely to make the playoffs this year was worth it, but Manny definitely helps.

132 I was there and it was pretty empty considering that the attendace was the same for both Sunday and last night (in terms of tickets sold) and the stadium had a lot more people in it last night than on Sunday.

But that's to be expected, I would guess only Boston, New York Yankees and Cubs games have not too many no-shows. Its one of those non-reported stories. Shoot, Eric Stephen could probably chime in but the last series in San Diego, that place looked empty for those mid-week games against the Dodgers.

132 "even though it's already paid for itself"

Are you kidding me? You are saying LaRoche and Morris for their entire career are worth less than $7M?? Believe all you want about the benefits of this trade, but make no mistake about its cost; the cost over time was huge.

129
No, we only get keepers for 3 seasons once they are purchased and 2009 will be his last. Same with LaRoche. 21 team league.

143 We were going to have LaRoche and Morris for their entire career if not for this trade? At no cost? Now that is ridiculous.

It isn't very analytical or statheadish, but I'm just really excited about seeing what Ramirez will do from here on out.

It's obvious what I thought about Andy LaRoche, and I really hope he has a great career.

This is just really exciting.

140 Right. Thanks TC.

142
The attendance for the June 10-12 series at Petco was:

Tue: 26,860
Wed: 29,218
Thu: 39,354 (Peavy + "businessman special" day game)

I was there for the Tue/Wed games, and I would guess that the actual crowd at the stadium was maybe 80% of the tickets sold. But I lost count around the 4th inning. :)

146
Admit it: you live on the main floor...

144 I think you should always go for upside in fantasy since there's no reward for finishing third. You need guys that can break out. Unless there's another high upside guy out there you can get on the cheap, I would take Upton.

143
You are making the same assumptions we are. Those in favor of the trade are assuming that Manny greatly enhances the prospect of postseason play.

You are assuming that LaRoche is going to be worth something but what are the odds that he is? Certainly not 100%. If LaRoche becomes the same run producer he was in the minor leagues and we don't make the playoffs then your right. If LaRoche becomes the same run producer he was in the minor leagues but we make the playoffs then it's a push. If we get to the World Series then I don't care what LaRoche becomes, because we weren't going to get there with him playing in Vegas or with him starting for us at 3rd base.

LOL, regfairfield thinks 50-35=25!

...

Sorry.

152 regfairfield is better at math than Andrew Shimmin.

152
Dodger Math...!

When was the last time we really had a superstar in the line up? Shawn Green (the monster years) Sheffield? Yea, this is exciting.

140 - thanks for that summation.

151 There is a big difference between assumptions and projections. If you want to pretend otherwise, all power to you. I'm sure if nothing else it would allow you to enjoy the Dodgers more than I can under the current regime.

150
Actually in this league finishing 3rd will net me about $2000 so finishing in the top three is usually my goal as opposed to winning. I've had 3 2nd/3rd finishes in the last 4 years but have yet to be crowned.

143 Paul, I was literally talking about money. The potential human cost sort of goes without saying, since I will miss LaRoche greatly. Sorry if that wasn't clear. I meant the trade financially.

146
For once Greg and I are totally on the same page. I'm excited, maybe on Sept 30th I'll be bummed but today I actually have to buy a ticket since I gave away this series months ago.

128 that totally backs up what i was saying yesterday off the top of my head. if we have a 30% chance of reaching the playoffs, and once we reach it, even if we have a 1 in 6 chance of reaching the world series (which, considering the cubs and brewers and marlins and mets are better than we are, is generous), that puts us at.... a 5% chance of reaching the world series. right?

158 ToyCannon has the O'Malley theory of running his team. Just enough to keep the fans interested.

158 Hmmmm, it's pretty close. I think I'd still take Upton because of LaRoche's potential injury concerns but it can go either way. I'd take the one who plays at the more scarce position (there's too many outfielders in my league, so I'd take LaRoche in my case).

155 - Billingsley is a superstar who just hasn't had enough face time on ESPN. But I know what you mean: there's no offensive force on the team who qualifies as a HoF or near-HoF bat. Until Manny.

157
I expect to enjoy the next 3 months of Manny in LF more then the next 5 years of watching LaRoche dicked around. I work with what I get, at this point in my life accentuating the negative part of anything isn't my cup of tea, I'll leave that to others.

159 So did I.

LaRoche at 3B, even if he projected as below average, is a huge savings to the Dodgers in $$. Forget the upside LaRoche represents and just think of the money. That has got to calculate as the most significant monetary part of the Manny deal. Unless your plan involves a replacement level player (DeWitt) at 3B, the LaRoche trade now means spend serious dollars on that possition, money that could have been at MLB minimums for 3 years and far lower than FA $$ for another 3.

153- Yeah, like that's a really useful skill. Math. Where'd math ever get anybody?

97 You might be right as far as the total number of errors that will be in the books by the end of the season for the outfield positions. But a lot of defensive deficiencies do not show up in the box score as errors, such as a weak arm in left that lets a single become a double, a run is scored from third because of a weak arm (I am not talking about Manny here,guess who?); a sometimes lackadasical outfielder who also misplays a lot of balls (I am not talking about Pierre here, guess who?). Those two in the outfield at the same time should make for interesting game(s).

151 If LaRoche becomes the same run producer he was in the minor leagues but we make the playoffs then it's a push.

If LaRoche becomes the same run producer he was in the minors, and all the Dodgers can manage in 2008 is another first-round flameout, then the trade will be an unqualified disaster.

Too many Dodger fans have diminished expectations. When you trade prospects for premium rental players, you're going for the ring (in a box). Nothing less should suffice.

157 I, being more reasonable, I think, hope to enjoy Manny for 3 months. I am not drunk on Ned enough to say I EXPECT to enjoy him for more than 2 months.

162
Yuck, I despised O'Malley.

There may be no dress code at Dodger Thoughts, but there is at the Daily News:

http://tinyurl.com/5z4bpr

165- I think that's the best reason I've seen to like this trade. And, contrary to my nature, I'm being completely earnest. Even though it would have been unnecessary, and wrong to do it (so it shouldn't be counted against LaRoche's real value, as was argued a lot, yesterday) LaRoche probably would have been screwed with for at least another year or two. Watching Manny will be oodles more fun than watching that would have been.

169 - it sounds like the organization was down on LaRoche anyway. If that is true AND they let him go for a rental AND the Dodgers get worse at third over some period of time, they get what they deserve. For all that we've lauded Logan White, this seems to be squarely in his corner, and for the first time in a long time, he may well be on the hook for a really bad decision.

171
But at this point in your life, you focus on the aspects of O'Malley that you didn't despise...

The other exciting thing is figuring out how Joe Torre is going to construct in a way that maximizes my frustration.

I'm guessing Manny bats third and Kent stays in the cleanup spot. That should do it.

170 - two or three months?

169
Nothing is guaranteed, your stance makes no sense. I don't want a guarantee, I just want a fighting chance. If they don't get out of the 1st round it could be for a variety of reasons and I won't consider it a disaster.

Now if 5 years from now Andy has a career OPS+ of 125 then in hindsite it will have been a disaster but we won't know for a while.

177 It's Two in the likely case of us not making the playoffs. It's Three if we go to the Big Show.

166 You may be absolutely right long term, and admittedly I was thinking financially more short term (though if they make the playoffs this year, there's good money in that, too). But long term LaRoche would've been a bargain. There's also no guarantee they will sign an expensive free agent for that role, though; they could very well end up giving DeWitt every chance to win the job for real next year, every chance they should arguably have given LaRoche. But there's a lot of money coming off the books next year. So while LaRoche would've been cheap, absolutely, I guarantee you at least half their infield next year will be a bargain, too (not to mention catcher and two of their outfield spots).

175
He built Dodger Stadium. That is about it. Not just O'Malley I have little love for any of the slave owners and how they treated the players of this great game once they were done putting money into their pockets. As far as I'm concerned the greatest person in baseball history is the guy who will never get into the HOF.

178- This I totally disagree with, though. I thought we'd established that the only fair way to judge a new player was to wildly overreact to his first PA. LaRoche's first PA was an infield single. So. Manny's on the clock. A walk or single is a wash (unless there are runners on, in which case he get's a +1 Clutch bonus); extra bases mean this was a boon. An out means it's the worst trade in the history of recorded time.

I'm kind of hoping Manny punches Jeff Kent in the face. At least I know Manny will probably make Jeff miserable for the next couple of months.

That's an exciting aspect to this trade.

182 LaRoche had the skill to score once on base too, so I think Manny has to do more than hit an empty double to regard this as anything other than a disaster.

183 This is what I'm saying. Endless possibilities.

And Manny with Larry Bowa?

128. Could you please state what the "standard error" is in the BP Monte Carlo runs? Also, are they just doing a Log5 method with a random number generator for determining winners of each game?
vr, Xei

Any word yet on what uniform number Ramirez will wear?

Otherwise, how can we hope to recognize him?

185
Manny could force Joe and Larry into early retirement. Maybe he will drive Ned and Frank insane and at each other's throats.

Yes, yes. I now see the great possibilities with this trade.

187 He'll be the one being Manny.

I believe they said on the FSN pre-game last night that he would wear # 28

189 - Manny Mota's manny-ness has been stripped?

190 - Wow. #28 is one historically dumb number.

One of the greatest sights of the 2008 postseason will be Kent/Kemp/Manny/Loney with their arms around each other drenched in champagne singing Kumbaya.

In the MLB article. What does this mean? The part about a move be likely?

--

..He also presents a problem in finding playing time for an outfield that now has Matt Kemp, Juan Pierre, Andre Ethier, Jones and Ramirez. Colletti said a move was likely...

178 There is no guarantee, right. but I don't just want a fighting chance this year, I want a fighting chance in multiple future years.

Trades like this can only be evaluated in hindsight. If LaRoche goes on to have a fine career in Pittsburgh (i.e. producing runs like he did in the minors), then the trade becomes worth it for LA only if the Dodgers win the World Series in 2008. Anything less, and it wasn't worth it.

There was a photo gallery on FoxSports (I think) a couple of days ago about the 10 worst deadline trades. The Dodgers had two spots on that list: LoDuca et al for Penny and Choi, and Konerko for Shaw. What are the odds that this deal makes a future list like that?

186 BP does not report their standard error. They use log5 with rng. The expected win % is a team's third-order regressed to their PECOTA expected win%. Then, for each game, the home team W%is given +0.02 and the visitors -0.02.

174
I don't know how White is on the hook for trading LaRoache, he is not the GM. He did sign off on it, but in what context? Was it either Kemp, or LaRoache...we just don't know.

191 Mota will now "be" Mariano Duncan.

Mariano Duncan will now "be" Joe Amalfitano.

Do try and keep up.

190- Then, on the postgame show, they said Manny would wear #99. The official website says 28.

Konerko for Shaw was hardly a deadline deal as it was done before the All-Star game.

I'd do the LaDuca trade 10 times out of 10 times. I'd just do a better job of finding his replacement and fire my manager if he didn't play who I wanted.

193 maybe someone gets released.

196 No. Apparently is was Ethier or LaRoche.

So what is the name of the head covering that Manny Ramirez wears under his cap and helmet?

I have ordered one of my staff to go to the game tonight and report on Manny and also to evaluate Casey Blake's beard and see how it compares to her husband's.

I think Blake has become more beard than man.

195. Thanks. Seems like we'd need to know the standard error before being able to quote their results with any kind of certainty. Also, I wonder how accurate their method for determining game winners is compared to other methods. vr, Xei

The Manny trade could be evaluated next year.

If the Dodgers have a hole at 2b or 3b for the entire season, it will mostly be because they dealt LaRoche for 2 months of Manny.

Everytime Blake or Dewitt makes an out, there'll be a "But those 2 months with Manny were awesome" comment.

Either that will be in a sarcastic tone, or a truthful tone. These two months will determine it.

There is actually a non-annoying ad above the comments box now.

I think Blake has become more beard than man

...twisted, and evil...

As far as the trade evaluation goes, any success LaRoche enjoys will be mitigated by whatever the Dodgers wind up with at third and at what price they had to pay to do it. In the mean time the Dodgers are enjoying the fruits of Manny before he ever steps on the field.

And now we have two Joey Amalfitanos, like the duplicate Darrens on Bewitched.

Manny is a witch! Burn him!

Could it be possible the DeWitt turns out to be the 3B that we all thought LaRoche would be?

I know it's stupid to put any weights into such a small sample size but since being demoted, .500/.555/.813 in 18 PA's.

I have been one of his biggest doubters, hopefully he proves me wrong.

Is it possible that Jones cleared waivers and can be dealt? Told to go to the minors or be DFA'd?

What other "move" would be of any kind of consequence, or resolve the outfield problem?

201
Ehtier was the name a few days ago. Do we know it was down to just those two this time

I heard they are converting Pierre's contract into a "personal services" lifetime deal. He will retire as a player and become the team's strength and conditioning guru.

I like Ethier, but including one of the OF (Pierre, Jones, or Ethier in that order) for ManRam would have reduced the log jam some

Manny, Casey Blake, Kent, Nomar, Lowe, Sweeney, Furcal, Chan Ho all are gone next year. Am I missing anyone else?

How many draft picks for all thems?

212 Hah, awesome. We should definitely "Favre" Pierre. The favre-r away, the better.

213. No team, including Boston wants Pierre or Jones. The current OF logjam (the one that includes Manny) is only for another 2-3 months. It's not worth trading Ethier for that purpose alone. LaRoche was the better player to be dealt, especially since we already have DeWitt.
vr, Xei

If the Dodgers have finally decided to keep Kemp and Loney, maybe they will start promoting them, maybe even move Loney up in the batting order now instead of next year.

Vin seems like he got the OK to praise Kemp and Loney as it seems like he is now doing so much more.

Next year the Dodgers' players are either going to seem generic unless the Dodgers fire up the hype machine for the players they will actually have next year.

214 Much talk about that here lately and the consensus is: potentially, a lot. But we won't know for sure til after the season. Type A vs Type B and beyond. And of course they could end up re-signing one of those guys (I doubt it, but either Furcal or C Blake is possible.) And then of course they could lose a pick for signing a FA, too.

But potentially, could be a hefty haul from the first two rounds next year.

Probably posted but also probably lost in the 2000 comments yesterday.

Keith Law on the Manny side:
"If Ramirez, now freed from the team that "doesn't deserve" him, stops mailing in various at-bats and hits toward the right-tail end of his abilities (as he hit in April, for example), the Dodgers have just made a quick two-win upgrade in exchange for a good player they weren't going to use and a quality prospect, and they didn't have to add to their payroll. The move keeps Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones on the bench where they belong, and I wouldn't be surprised if the team were to try to outright Jones off the roster and assign him to Triple-A to clear the roster spot. The move makes the Dodgers slight favorites to win the NL West, assuming they put the right personnel on the field."

He also really liked Morris.

I think we are in agreement that the success of this deal over the immediate two months hinges on who Torre plays.

In the words of Ben Kenobi:

"He is more beard now than man..., twisted and evil.."

219 I think Joe Torre has put out what I would consider to be the optimal lineup possible maybe once or twice so far this year. I don't think we should expect that to change. Pierre is still gonna play two-thirds of the time, at the minimum.

I really want to see the lineups tonight.

What Joe should do:
Kemp
Ethier
Martin
Manny
Kent
Loney
Blake
SS
P

What Joe will do:
Pierre
Kemp
Manny
Kent
Martin
Loney
Blake
SS
P

219
It would be interesting to know if Ned had an outfield configuration in mind when he made the trade.

On some level, it's kind of a "rotten thing" for a GM to do to give a manager 5 outfielders who all expect to be in the starting lineup. Not that I feel sorry for Torre: this is partly why he's paid the big bucks.

221
Since we're facing a Tough Lefty™ tonight, Jones will probably get the nod over Pierre, flanked by Manny and Kemp.

I don't know what kind of handed pitcher Ethier will ever get to face.

I actually have a feeling Pierre will start over Ethier tonight, with Johnson pitching he'll go for the scrappy lefty over the more slugging lefty who struggles this year vs. lefties. And I will not take that to then mean that's how it will go from here on out. I'm gonna be zen about it tonight in other words. If Ethier's on the bench in general I'll be displeased and a little surprised. I bet they send Jones down on some sort of faux injury rehab again, or DFA him. If they wanted to trade Ethier they would've done it yesterday, and obviously they're not trading Kemp. So any move would have to be Jones, who is clearly the least productive of their 5 OFers.

Or yeah I guess Jones could get the start over both Pierre and Ethier as D4P suggests. Particularly since at least Jones can still field very well, which they will need in center with ManRam next to him. So actually, yeah, I change my vote. Jones could start tonight. Either way, I wouldn't expect tonight's line-up to reflect the future.

214 2 for Manny. 1 for Blake. 1 for Lowe. None for the rest.

This assumes, of coarse, we offer arbitration to all of them. Manny and Lowe are arbitration no-brainers. Blake is too, frankly, but he is a no-brainer for no offer of arbitration. So your expectation should be 3 additional picks.

I'd be shocked if Ethier faces much more left handed pitching the rest of the year.

don't know what kind of handed pitcher Ethier will ever get to face.

Maybe Kershaw, does he pitch with his hands? The mythical figure was once rumored to pitch with other body parts.

223
Have you gotten your hands on the Bill Belichick sex tape yet?

I'm expecting Manny/Jones/Kemp tonight.

229
I heard it was just a practice session...

Ugh, I forgot Jones was still on the team.

Pierre is 5 for 30 career vs. RJ. Ethier has never faced him.

Career against Randy Johnson:

Andruw Jones: .222/.344/.556/.899 with a 10-5 K-to-BB ratio in 27 ABs

Juan Pierre: .167/.324/.167/.491 with a 4-4 K-to-BB ratio in 30 ABs

Andre Ethier: 0 career ABs =(

My gut says Pierre will get the nod since he has the most "experience" against this Tough Lefty™

233 - hopefully being below the Mendoza line against the Unit works against Pierre, small sample size or not.

I really hope Pierre doesn't get much playing time down the stretch. I just can't see Pierre and Manny covering 2/3 of the outfield. Anything hit left of second base that makes it past the dirt is going to be an adventure.

Then again, Manny does have experience cutting off a noodle armed center fielder...

Randy Johnson hasn't given up a home run to a lefty all season. I think Pierre starts but he can only start in center. With obviously Manny and Kemp to his sides.

Tony Jackson on ESPNews.

And they use the Hawaiian shirt photo.

234 i think we can throw out career splits for jones now.

anything pre-2007 is useless as he has morphed into a worthless pile of rat excerment.

239 Sure, it's easy for us to throw it out, but do you think Torre and Co. do?

239 Whenever Vin brings those up I get depressed.

Ok, I just finished running 20 remaining seasons for, 1) Dodger team with Ramirez on it, 2) Dodger team with Pierre playing instead of Ramirez, 3) Arizona Diamondbacks.

1) Dodger team w/Ramirez
W: 29.00
L: 25.00
High Wins: 35
Low Losses: 21

2) Dodger team w/o Ramirez
W: 28.15
L: 25.85
High Wins: 36
Low Losses: 23

3) Arizona Diamondbacks
W: 26.95
L: 27.05
High Wins: 34
Low Losses: 20

With Ramirez, the Dodgers on average beat the DBacks by 0.05 games in the standings and without him lose the division by 0.8 games. This is by no means meant to be an authoritative study. Due to defense, the Ramirez bump wasn't as high as I thought it would be on the sim. A larger sample size of seasons would be better, but I just thought I'd get something out quickly.
vr, Xei

202 In the event you haven't already ordered one on Amazon.com, you are looking for a skull cap.

on 710 (the radio station bob) they're saying joe made manny cut his hair, and manny agreed.

237 He saying anything of value, or just complaining about elevators?

244 Hah. They totally need to auction those locks off for charity.

221 It's still possible Kent might be a scratch again from tonight's lineup if they determine his knee injury needs more time.

{243} Skull cap; or doo rag, whatever. Banned by the NFL in 2001. Hopefully it and the hair are gone by game time.

I wonder how much Manny's dreads would go for on the street.

244
I guess I went to the well one too many times with that joke.

Now DT will be free from references to Bell Gardens.

244 Too bad. I was looking forward to:

Joe: "Cut your hair."

Manny: "No."

Joe: "Cut it or I'll bench you."

Manny: "O.K., I'll sit on the bench. You can always get Ned to release me if you really don't like it."

Ned. /cry

214 I think Beimel is a free agent after this year

Come on, Manny: you gotta fight for your right to party!

So I tucked my hair up under my hat and I went in to ask him why,
He said you look like a fine young man,
I guess you'll do.....

Darlin dont you go and cut your hair
Do you think its gonna make him change?
Im just a boy with a new haircut
And thats a pretty nice haircut

I was thinking more of this Pavement song:

"Manny dont you go and cut your hair
Do you think its gonna make him change?
I'm just a boy with a new haircut
And thats a pretty nice haircut
Charge it like a puzzle, hit me wearin' muzzles
Hesitate to die, look around, around, the second baseman's drowned
His telephone is found."

How "sick" is Andre...he looked fine yesterday, but Torre has a built in excuse to start Andrew or JP.

255 LOL. {high five}

242 Cool. Firstly in that it confirms my rough "less an one win" evaluation of Manny. Secondly because we end up with 50/50 by your Sim. I'll hope your's is better than BP.

2 for Manny. 1 for Blake. 1 for Lowe. None for the rest.

I would bet my life Lowe is a type A. He was a solid type A last year and his numbers this year have been consistent with his past years.

Blake is most likely a type A, depending on how he finishes the season.

Shoulder length or longer.
Here baby, there, momma...
Everywhere daddy daddy

256 Hah. I woke up this morning to that song.

218 226 Thanks! 3ish additional draft picks. Not bad if well used.

Gimme a head with hair
long beautiful hair
shining streaming gleaming flaxen waxen
won't you give me it down to there
shoulder length or longer
here baby there daddy everywhere mama mommy
hair
flow it show it long as i
can grow it my hair

10CC's "Dreadlock Holiday" anyone?

Did you see this from Rosenthal yesterday?

An hour before Thursday's blockbuster, I sent a text message to an executive with one of the teams involved in the three-way discussions and asked the chances of the Dodgers landing Ramirez.

His response: "You know that process ..." And I could almost hear his sigh come through my cell phone.

He loves trashing the "Dodger front office dysfunction".

Last year, Blake was a type B but was the first player that missed the cutoff in his category (2b-ss-3b).

He's having a better year this year than last year so I'm assuming he'll make the type A cut off.

Blake is almost ceratinly B right now. Sure - he could change that, as you say "depending on how he finishes the season." Either way, offering him arbitration would be a mistake unless you want him again in 2009.

You are probably right on Lowe. He is close based on FIP, but I really have no idea how ESB ranks the players.

268 If Lowe isnt a type a I will eat my hat. Elias uses the most traditional counting stats to rank players. I saw a stat a couple months ago that Lowe is up with Oswalt and Halladay in the number of wins since 2005 or 2004 or something like that. Hes type a for sure.

268

AL Rankings
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/2007-10-31-elias-rankings-complete_N.htm

NL Rankings
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl/2007-10-31-elias-rankings-complete_N.htm

They don't go by FIP. As you can see, Lowe is firmly entrenched as an A and he hasn't done anything this year to lose that status.

Also, I don't think offering Blake arbitration is a mistake at all. At worst, you get him back for one year at around 8 million and you get a player who can play any of the corner spots on the field and can hit a bit. I'd take that deal.

Vin seems like he got the OK to praise Kemp and Loney as it seems like he is now doing so much more.

No way would Vinny need an okay or otherwise. He goes by what he sees.

How often do people lose money in Arbitration, especially coming off a "best" season? He's making $9M now, so I think you can expect 10-12 as a reasonable risk.

Even that said, though, you might be right given the error of the Manny trade. We now have a lot of problems in the infield and assuming Manny is gone next year we would still have a weak spot in the OF. He might not be a bad choice. I had made my mind up on him (as to Arb.) when we signed him and we are - clearly - a different team now. Offering him arbitration would be expensive, but not out-of-the question. If it happened, however, I would expect him to take it.

270 lol @ zito being 15 on the list

A couple of days ago I found this link that shows most of the process how the rankings are figured.

http://tinyurl.com/639aeg

Sometime in September I plan to start figuring out where our FA rank. I need to wait until September callups though, as each player on the active roster at the end of the year gets counted.

If I had to guess at the rankings:

Manny - A
Lowe - A
Penny - A
Blake - B
Furcal - B
Beimel - B
Kent - B

269 ,270 Certainly correct on Lowe, given how ERB appears to rank. There is no fear of him coming close to B.

251 Ok, I was LAT'd from the last thread, but this is my version, and I'm sticking to it:

Joe to Manny:

"Son, this is a conservative organization. You're going to have to cut your hair before taking the Field."

Manny: "Will not."

Joe: "Will too."

Manny: "No way".

Joe: "Well, in that case, I'll move Pierre back to left field and pencil in Jones."

Manny: Laughing uproariosly...

How often do people lose money in Arbitration, especially coming off a "best" season? He's making $9M now, so I think you can expect 10-12 as a reasonable risk.

Who are you talking about? Re Blake: His salary is 6.1 mil right now, so 8 mil in arb is reasonable.

If you are talking about Lowe, then 10-12 mil for one more year of Lowe is again, perfectly reasonable if you expect a slight drop off from ERA+ of around 118 to around 110-115.

Again, with Manny, arb will net him around 18-20 mil and for one year, its totally worth it because his production is still very good to elite.

For all 3, if I was running the team, offering arbitration is already a done deal.

Wow, the latest FJM write up on the Griffey deal is hilarious.

272
How often do people lose money in Arbitration, especially coming off a "best" season? He's making $9M now, so I think you can expect 10-12 as a reasonable risk

Are you talking about Casey Blake here, or someone else? Blake is making $6.1m this season.

I'm kind of bummed that Manny is cutting his hair. He should have a Sasha-clause - no hair cuts required.

278 - Isn't it...I think the girl in the next cubicle thinks there is something very wrong with me, because it's rare that reading insurance coverage opinions makes anyone laugh out loud.

I don't want Manny to cut his hair either. I want Manny....to be Manny!

Here is an upgrade, and it solves some of the problems with too many outfielders. Out (demote/get-rid-of)jSweeney and basically make Jones the pinch-hitter. Granted it is a small "upgrade", with a .163 avg (A.Jones) versus a .119 (M.Sweeney); but Jones can spend a lot of his game time in the back room taking batting practice until he is called upon to pinch hit. Heaven knows he needs more batting practice; maybe it takes some of the pressure off him, or at least until he has to pinch hit, and he will only hear the boos once, instead of 3 or 4 times a game!

almost cut my hair,
it happened just the other day.
could said that it got in my way.
but I didn't and I wonder why
I feel like letting my freak flag fly..

274 Wow. ok. That is a terrible system for actually gaging talent. It looks like a great system to ensure the Dodgers get many draft picks, though. Great!

LaRoche turned an inning-ending 5-4-3 double play to nail down a 3-0 Pirates win in his first appearance. He went 1-for-4 with a run scored.

281 Same here! I really had to save the rest to read at home for fear of embarrassing myself.

Well slap my thigh and call me a dirigible!

Poor Mike Downey. He deserved it, but, still...

272 Hah. I am apparently getting too tired to read. I just looked and saw $9.1M. Now I look and see $6.1M /shrug. Thanks for the correction.

since everyone else is doing it...

Get a haircut and get a real job
Clean your act up and don't be a slob
Get it together like your big brother Bob
Why don't you get a hair cut and get a real job?

Torre boxed himself in by making Beimel cut his hair earlier. If you let Manny go without cutting it, that would make the double-standard that exists for stars a little too explicit.

Message from Molly:

I am going to the manny press conference at 4. I will also be in the locker room, etc. I volunteer to be a DT reporter and ask anyone anything you or your readers want to know.

286 Of the prospects the Dodgers have traded away recently, Edwin Jackson and Andy LaRoche will always have a soft spot in my heart. I wish them well. I was looking forward to see how Santana would have developed, but I'm not too torn up about it either way.

i'm beginning to wonder if old boston braves fans felt like we do with jones when they were watching ruth play for their team.

(you may have to read that three or four times to figure out what i mean)

292 Well the most important question seems to be, is he gonna cut his hair?

sing it, Manny:

Almost cut my hair
It happened just the other day
It's gettin kinda long
I coulda said it wasn't in my way
But I didn't and I wonder why
I feel like letting my freak flag fly

292
Ask Management how Manny fits in to the team's philosophy on "character".

295 Coz I've got to, got to know /guitar riff.

Manny will not be boring, that is for sure. I'm sure he and Nomar and Lowe will rehash and laugh over old times, Kent will glower and move a trash can or two then read his motorcycle mags. Pierre will look on with despair from a distance, while Kemp rocks to his Ipod, oblivious to the surroundings as Manny strolls through the clubhouse.
Seriously, what type of production in August and Sept. will be realistic and needed for Manny to be considered as a help, 15+ HR 45-50 RBI 900+ OPS ? If much less but they still win the west, could you factor in how the players around him were affected? Did their numbers spike dramatically as they pitched around Manram? What will satisfy the posters here at DT?

292 Molly:
How will he like playing in Dodger Stadium, which is so different from Fenway?

Does he feel like he's starting over in a good way?

What does he know about this current Dodgers team?

--

How does he think LaRoche's career will turn out?

Did his bats arrive safely?

Ask Manny if he cares whether the Dodgers make the playoffs or not.

300 Ask him if there's any chance he'll go all Otis Nixon on us.

At what point will Andre Ethier be rewarded for being one of the top three outfielders on the team?

You can't ask that, but I sure wish somebody would. Just one time.

This will be the lamest back-slapping press conference ever.

Manny, you want to play in the outfield with Kemp and Ethier, don't you? (add wink and knowing nod).

Does anyone think Manny can be a positive influence on someone like Kemp as far as hitting is concerned? Kinda like Maddux was when he came here. I mean no matter the antics, batting practice everyday with a hall-of-famer has got to have some upside, right? Hopefully he doesn't give Kemp any pointers on defense though.

Ask Manny if he's available at 11:30 on August 16.

301 What if Manny's reply is "Not at all" ?

I think I have come to terms with losing LaRoche. I think he can be a lot like his brother in terms of OPS, in the .800-.850 range, which is very good at 3B, but potentially replaceable. LaRoche is amazing at working the count and getting on base, but his power bat is suspect. He could be a 25 HR guy, or he could be a 15 HR guy, nobody knows, and now we'll let the Pirates find out for sure.

I didn't like the Blake deal at first, but we needed the upgrade. The only problem with all these deals is that -- the team still stinks. They have very little life in them, and it seems as if they no capability of winning when they need to.

This has been written about around here, so no need to compound the situation. Maybe putting Manny in the dugout will awaken the playful spirits of Dodgers baseball, and I certainly hope so. But now we have two key FA's and we can't resign either of them because we need the draft pick compensation.

This only means we have to rely on Ned to sign the right replacements (he won't get fired, unfortunately) and we all know how feeble he is at working the FA market. The Dodgers are a very talented ballclub without any leadership.

McCourt is just a real estate flipper trying to rebuild the Stadium before selling, he's not a leader, or a manager, he's a real estate flipper. Recognize this and you will see where the Dodgers stand.

I believe I asked this earlier but was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on this. I was wondering if Ethier, who has a .779 OPS this season, can get better and become a .850, .875 OPS guy or does everyone think that .800 is his ceiling most years. He is 26 years old now.

295 espn radio 710 reported that manny cut his hair (i don't know how credible they are but that's what they reported)

and frank mccourt was just on the radio and confirmed manny will be wearing #99 as a Dodger.

Joe Beimel, in one fell swoop, has lost his status as the Dodger with the longest hair and the highest uniform number and the dumbest antics in his past.

308
They have very little life in them, and it seems as if they no capability of winning when they need to

Are there times when they don't need to win?

So no word on roster move(s) yet?

Guess after the press conference.

If i had to guess, I'd say Troncoso sent down. If Nomar has to DL then Hu comes up.

Joe, how excited is Manny to be hitting in the three hole in front of Jeff Kent?

I bet Lowe is happy to have the extra chance of a run getting scored that Manny represents. The Dodgers have absolutely brutalized him in run-support.

I'd like to know what the Dodger average run per game is pre-Manny, and then see what it is afterwards. If they make the post-season and have a normalized Penny, with Lowe and Billingsly it ought to at least be interesting.

313
I think it could be Nomar to the DL and no Hu (for now). The club might be thinking with Manny's bat we can live with Berrozuna for 10 days or so.

From Simers: Will Torre ask Ramirez to cut his shaggy hair?

"I don't know," Torre said, "but I know Beimel is waiting with bated breath to see what happens."

Joe, how excited is Manny to be hitting behind Juan Pierre and playing next to him in the outfield?

this was refreshing from Keith Law, may have been mentioned earlier so sorry if this brings up old conversation

"Addressing their main team weakness was an outstanding move, and as long as they play an outfield of Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier as often as possible, they're slight favorites over Arizona to win the division."

307 - He might not admit it, for fear of failure, but one can imagine that he realizes that if he is perceived as singlehandedly carrying the Bums to the playoffs, his family won't have to starve.

308
Can someone quantify for me how a team "has life"? It sounds suspiciously like the absurd conversation between Lyons and Steiner after one of the Dodgers come from behind wins last week.

"Well the Dodgers sure didn't show any excitement before the All-Star Break, but they were positively giddy out there tonight!", offered a sage Steiner with Lyons nodding in agreement.

Yea, they were excited because they just came from behind and won the game in the ninth inning. And they weren't very excited before the break because they were losing all of the time. Have these guys ever heard of cause and effect?

311 very nicely done.

315
Billingsley has received worse support than Lowe. Per ESPN:

Chad - 4.28
Lowe - 4.39
Kuroda - 4.55

ESPN figures run support as "Team's runs scored (average, per 9 innings pitched) while the pitcher of record".

Considering the club averages 4.16 runs/game, it's not like Lowe is the sad sack of the staff. He just happens to have a quirky mix of games -- feast or famine it seems.

323 I took Sushi's comment to be a statement on past years as well. Lowe has been pretty unlucky since he got here, hasn't he?

[w/apologies to any Rastafarians out there]

Dread, Natty Dread now
Dreadlock Congo Bongo I
Manny Dreadlock in a Babylon
A dreadlock Congo Bongo I

It's your duty to watch this movie:

http://tinyurl.com/5pdb3y

MLB.com: "Swap unites brothers in Pittsburgh"

http://tinyurl.com/6xbvxa

> With the Triple-A Las Vegas club in Oklahoma City on Thursday, LaRoche was summoned into manager Lorenzo Bundy's office. Well aware of Thursday's non-waivers Trade Deadline, LaRoche hoped he knew what was coming next.

> "'What team am I going to?'" LaRoche recalled asking, staying optimistic.

> "[Bundy responded], 'If you were going to be traded, which one team would you want it to be?'" LaRoche said.

> LaRoche told Bundy he'd like to play in Pittsburgh.

> "[He said], 'You got your wish,'" LaRoche said.

327
Getting verklempt...

326
Awesome. I love how it ends with a post mortem of "Andy LaRoche, 2003-2008".

326 I was at a party last night where that song came on.

Needless to say, there was much rejoicing.

I was thinking that like half of Lowe's games as a Dodger had 1 run or less... but I think it was from BP and it was half of his LOSSES had 1 run or less... like 23 out of 45... or something. Can't hunt numbers at the moment.

330
A party on a weeknight? Damn you school teachers and your summers!

327 There was a story that I don't think is true because no trade like this ever took place but the story is that years and years go there were the Van Arsdale brothers that played in the NBA (I don't think they were twins) and the story is that the coach called Tom into his office and said I have some good news and some bad news. The good news is we just made a trade for your brother Dick. Tom very excited said well what's the bad news? The coach said, we traded you for him.

332 Every day is Saturday for us.

One thing that contributes to the impression of Lowe having rotten luck is that the last three complete games he's pitched have all been losses.

299-I haven't seen a reply to my inquiry as to what offensive production do my fellow fans and posters expect out of Manny? I layed out a flat standard in comment #299 and asked it that was reasonable. For two months it was 15+ HR 45-50 RBI and 900+ OPS. Knowing they might pitch around Manny and make lesser mortals beat them sometime, are these numbers realistic? Too high? Will these numbers get the Dodgers into the postseason all other numbers remaining relatively the same provided Torre plays the "proper" guys? Thoughts anyone? Lets discuss!

331
You're right, wow.

Lowe has 46 losses as a Dodger. In those games, the Dodgers have scored:

0 runs - 10 times
1 run - 15 times
2 runs - 8 times
3+ - 13 times

I like how Molly is nice enough to offer to ask questions in the Dodger locker room / press conference and there are no real questions just sarcastic attempts at humor. Pathetic.

295
297
301
302
303
304
306
314
318

326

Working with iMovie for a photo slide show is awful

336, too high: new league, dodger stadium, jet lag. Heck I don't know, I just hope he get's a 3 run homer next time Lowe's up. :-)

It's been fun the last few days trying to stay awake and keep up with the comments. Toodles.

338
Underdog had some good questions in 300 .

I hate these stupid grooming rules. So utterly pompous.

339- That's what Andrew seems to indicate. I've never tried playing with video. If it's any good, MLBAM gets it shut down. If it sucks, jerks like me make fun of it. Lose/Lose.

I'm guessing Manny has no idea who Andy LaRoche is and he has never played at Dodger Stadium.

336
My WAG for Manny as a Dodger:

.323/.425/.568, 14 HR, 40 RBI

344
Was he hurt when the Red Sox came out to LA? Was that 2002? I think it was.

339 you could have done that in iPhoto, it would have been way easier

346
They said on ESPN last night that he has never played at Dodger Stadium, so I am going off that.

Manny missed 39 games in 2002, during which time the Red Sox played (and got swept) at Dodger Stadium.

326 The picture with Jackie Chan broke me.

338

I thought there were some real questions.

327

I am really happy for Andy. I can only imagine how great it would be for him to stay with family

In that June 2002 series at Dodger Stadium, the Sox left fielders were Brian Daubach (Friday night) and Rickey Henderson (Sat/Sun)!!!

Just because it's a serious question that won't be asked by any journalists doesn't make it sarcasm.

Sarcasm is saying you like something when you don't really like it at all.

300 I'll take a shot at giving answers to these questions.

1. Dodger Stadium vs. Fenway Park, he may say that he has hit the same in most parks and that he thinks he will do just fine, its more about the pitchers anyway. (His home/road splits are not that drastic).

2. He just here to play ball and win games, the Dodgers are a team with a lot of history and I hope to add to it.

3. I look forward to rejoining Derek and Nomar. I have a lot of respect for Joe Torre and I think I will get to know my teammates as the season progresses.

4. Manny will have no answer on LaRoche (if any Dodger official addresses it, it will be you have give up something to get someone like Manny).

5. I am sure he brought his equipment with him (darn those extra baggage fees).

Manny's stats for 54 games as a Dodger:

.289/.374/.492, 9 HR, 36 RBI

353
For instance, I like that you have the summer off.

I'm not insanely jealous of you. At all.

340 - I was trying to figure 7 to 8 homers each month and 22-25 RBI's each month and the OPS would include some walks he would get from getting pitched around. I thought the OPS of 900+ was conservative, the RBI's maybe a stretch as that is a product of how many people are on base ahead of him. Your 40 maybe closer to reality.

336 Marcel projects Manny to go .287/.386/.516 with 11 HR and 12 2B the rest of the season.

In 242 Xeifrank showed that Manny probably adds a little under a win (over Pierre playing) over the course of the season. He said that makes enough a difference to just push us over the top. Would like to see what it is with a Manny/Kemp/Ethier outfield going forward for a best case scenario.

303 No press conference will top the backslapping, ESPN News breaking, MLB.com interrupting, introduction of Joe Torre as the new Dodger manager.

356 I went to school three times this week!

333 It is true, and they were twins.

352
Eric, what do you think about Snoop now also trying to rep LSU.

That guy is the biggest bandwagon jumper there is. I miss the days when I loved and respected Snoop.

359 How quickly I forget.

362
I lost interest in Snoop when he showed up at Warrior games against Dallas.

But I'll always have old, young Snoop. Either that or the vision of LenDale White handing him the ball after a rushing TD. :)

Canadian head decapitator to face second degree murder.

http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=ba3498aa-995c-4f03-92f7-1a3cb0c79532

Speaking of press conferences, does anyone remember the one where Dennis Rodman announced he was signing with the Lakers? I think it was at a Chili's (or somewhere similar), and FSN carried live coverage, during which Rodman made reference to an act he and then-wife Carmen Electra performed just before the press conference.

Good times.

357 Its weird, it like never watching Shaq or Pau Gasol play closely until they became a Laker, I don't know what to expect seeing Manny play the last two months of the year.

If he could replicate Pedro Guerrero's best month twice over, I would take that.

Press conference will take place at home plate.

365 - Second degree. Yow.

Spammer escapes from prison, kills wife and child:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25840140

336 Well, since you asked, I think that prediction is fairly unrealistic. I'm expecting something more along the lines of .285/.365/.490 with 8 or 9 homers.

367
If he could replicate Pedro Guerrero's best month twice over, I would take that

Was in June (15 HR) or July (.460) 1985? How about we take both!

Don't know if this was mentioned, but Boston writer Gordon Edes says the Dodgers and Pirates were "dickering" over the 2nd prospect (they agreed on LaRoche quickly, I assume). Dodgers kept saying no to several names before agreeing on Morris.

I wonder who Pittsburgh really wanted? Elbert? DeJesus?

372

Dejesus has to be one. Probably Lambo...maybe McDonald.

Dan Szymborski's ZIPS projection has Manny going .279/.390/.526 the rest of the way, with 10 HR and 33 RBI.

Kyle Russell continues to tear the cover off the ball.

I wonder at which level he starts next year. AA, probably?

"Dickering" is even better than "fabulously douchey."

372 Morris was about our 5th or 6th best pitching prospect so I imagine Pittsburgh tried for most of the ones ahead of him... McDonald, Elbert, Withrow. (Martin's not eligible to be traded yet.)

375

His K rate is insane!

Of course, it seems like we have this conversation every other day.

They'll start Russell at Inland Empire, I'd imagine. I can see them skipping him over one level, but not two.

378 He struck out a ton in college, too.

Is it axiomatic that his high K totals will hinder him as he advances? I can't see why it should be.

People strike out.

It happens.

As far as I know, there are no examples of hitters who K'd in Rookie ball as much as Russell has and went on to become productive major league hitters.

But I guess there's a first time for everything. I'd guess Jack Cust with a better glove is the best-case scenario.

Is he like Jack Cust?

380 I think he would have to also walk a ton. Ks are OK if you can walk too.

Too slow with that one.

22 walks in 34 games is pretty good.

Does anybody know what number Manny will be wearing tonight for sure? I've heard 3 different ones, from 23, to 99(!)...

Is that Jeff Kent in the ad above the comments????

Ja(y)son Stark labels the Dodgers a "Trade deadline winner", but then says the following:

No one knows what the Dodgers are going to get from their man Manny these next two months. Not Joe Torre. Not Scott Boras. Not even Manny himself. But it won't be all good. We know that. Not when you have a slightly whacked-out man on a shameless money mission. Not when the manager has to figure out how to play five "regular" outfielders on one roster. And not, certainly, when Manny puts a glove on his hand.

It just changed...

Manny definitely did not cut his hair.

Manny has arrived.

What channel is covering the presser?

393
I'm guessing Prime will down there, but ESPN and ESPNews will also cover at least the beginning.

I happen to be checking in when McCourt, Ned, and Manny came walking around the top deck. Manny in the middle, with an arm around each of them. (!)

I snapped a photo of McCourt showing Manny the view of the field from the Top Deck. On my blog now:

http://www.mollyknight.com

Heading down now. Will try to ask the questions you guys posted here. Sorry the photo isn't better. Snapped it with my Treo.

395
Nice! Thanks for all the info, Molly.

And now I know Marion Barber is a jerk.

395 Thanks Molly.

Thanks, Molly!

397 Me too, is he a football player.

Seriously, my NFL knowledge is pretty small considering I have no team here bomabarding me with coverage.

389
slightly whacked-out man on a shameless money mission

I kind of view Manny as a broken hero on a last-chance power drive.

Bill Madden of the New York Daily News, who always has struck me as very good and reasonable, has this commentary, which ought to give pause ... unless we aren't trying to get Manny for next year.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/columnists/madden/index.html

As I said, what worried me is that Ned would feel he had to make a trade to shut up Plaschke. Even if I am not sure that Manny is the answer to our problems, Ned didn't give up anything of significance (sorry, LaRoche--I really do like you, but ...).

395 - Mega super cool!

I see him more as cut loose like a douche, another runner in the night.

400
RB for the Cowboys. He's on my fantasy team. Yes, we start out keeper league early.

*our

402
Bill Madden?

Reasonable?

I read those words and they should make sense, but they don't.

Scott Boras will eat your children while they sleep.

ESPN just said they are going to have some Dodgers also talk about Manny.

Please be Jeff Kent. Please be Jeff Kent.

Nomar and Lowe, perhaps.

Even if I am not sure that Manny is the answer to our problems, Ned didn't give up anything of significance

Well, it means we might have to either pay big money for Orlando Hudson, but that might be worth it if Vin stays just so he can say "O-Dog" every night.

408 All praise be to Allah!

MANNY!

358. It was with a Manny/Kemp/Ethier outfield, and it was compared to a Pierre/Kemp/Ethier outfield. :)
vr, Xei

I'm happy to be here, mang. That's all I can say.

Let me tell you a story, mang...

I love it.

Manny's first uniform was a Dodger!

anyone else having a problem getting this press conference on mlb.tv?

Manny is thinking blue. Well that's nice.

I love that he's answering the questions in Spanish. There was a reference to "Fernando El Rey." Perhaps Manny is a French Connection fan.

Leave the poor space cadet alone and let him rake.

Manny says he "doesn't go deep anymore." He only hits line drives.

Oh that's right the Red Sox were here in late March so Manny has played here before.

*But Pierre has 36 sb's!!! lol

ESPNews projects:

Kemp
Blake
Martin
Manny
Kent
Loney
Ethier
Berroa

We can now confirm he's going to be Manny.

401 Isn't Peter Gammons, well, what word do you use to describe him? Man complains of Manny sinking his trade value and never mind that Gammons has spent the last week to ten days ripping Manny to shreds. On a related note, I tend to think that Manny was alluding to Gammons when he said what he said about the Sox turning on the player and doing their best to alienate the player from the fan base [and so cue Peter Gammons...].

424

Switch Ethier with Blake and we've got something. Guess we should be happy if Kent doesn't bat cleanup.

Hugs for everybody!

Tonight's lineup:

Kemp, RF
Blake, 3B
Martin, C
Ramirez, LF
Kent, 2B
Loney, 1B
Jones, CF
Berroa, SS
Kershaw, LHP

I like Manny.

I look forward to watching tonight

429

No complaining from me. I will take it and enjoy the ride

I wonder if he will get a Camacho Nacho...just not on the top deck

Whether anybody complains about it or not, it's still garbage.

The guy he hugged is the security guard for the Jimmy Kimmel show.

He started talking about pitching his life as a soap opera to one of the Spanish language channels.

Wow. Manny comes off as pretty humble: "They have rules here. If they want me to cut my hair, I'll cut my hair. It's not a big deal. It'll grow back, you know?"

Refreshing. I bought my $29 mlbtv subscription just for tonight's game.

PLAY BALL!

What is Jones doing in there?

429 I hope that only means Ethier is still feeling a little queasy from whatever bug he had yesterday.

Dangit. Going up to my cousin's cabin near Quincy tonight, so will miss the debut.

I guess I'll have to resort to the ESPN ticker, and much pacing...pacing...

437 Hes just suffering from left handed-itis because of Randy Johnson.

429 - Possible reasons for starting Jones:
1. Platoon advantage against Unit.
2. Torre figures Manny's defense needs all the help it can get.
3. Jones needs just a little more time to work on his swing.

436
Earning about 111 grand...

McCourt: "I like the way the Dodger's are playing and this is how the Dodgers should be playing."

Talk about having low expectations - it's no wonder his serenity is so high.

Nomar said "do do."

414 I began to suspect that may be the case after I wrote the comment. I guess what I was thinking was that Jones was an everyday, when clearly, he is not.

Thanks for your hard work on this, Xeifrank.

It's called playing the percentages. It's what smart managers do.

I'm with 437 .

I wonder if Colletti secretly hopes Manny's intangibles will make Andruw Jones good at baseball again.

443 He is a father now. Wait 'til he realizes he has a crush on Gina of Sesame Street. Every father did that, right?

jones and ethier platoon, juan is 5th outfielder/pinch runner... anything less than that is unacceptable.

440 That's exactly right (except maybe for #3 ;-) ). I think he's in there at least in part (large part) because he can at least still play great defense and there's gonna be worries about Manny out there, especially on his first day of school, as it were. And the LHP thing. I kinda expected Ethier to sit tonight, frankly, just wasn't sure whether it would be Pierre or Jones. Anyway... this'll be fun.

See you all here 'round 7.

Colletti can hope in one hand.

I can see Ethier coming in once Randy gives way to the bullpen.

Is it possible Jones might play because he's better defensively than Kemp in center field? There's going to be a lot of balls hit to right-center that Manny isn't going to get to.

If you are going to start Jones (again) you might as well bat him in front of Manny and put a bit of faith in him. All said, I have no faith in any resurgence from Andruw this year and wish he was out of the line-up all together. But if you are going to play him when we have an established star to take the limelight off of Andruw, you might as well bat him in front of Manny since he would get better pitches to hit. But that's just my opinion. Move Martin up to #2 where he belongs and Blake down to #7.

Left-center, I mean.

NPUT

Andruw Jones gets untracked/on-track tonight. Book it!

NPUT?