Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Like Clayton Kershaw, promising pitcher James McDonald has gotten a promotion from AA Jacksonville. Unlike Kershaw, McDonald will stop at AAA Las Vegas, according to Jeff Elliott of the Florida Times-Union. (Thanks to Dodger Thoughts commenter Dodgers49 for the link.)
McDonald, 24 in October, has thrown 118 2/3 innings this season, striking out 113 with a 3.19 ERA. Opponents are batting .227 against him.
It went almost unnoticed amid the Manny madness, but Kershaw had his second straight start of six shutout innings Friday, improving his season ERA+ to 110. He has thrown 115 innings this season in the majors and minors combined.
Here's where Kershaw ranks among others 20-and-under in ERA+ in Dodger history (minimum 50 innings).
2009 - $500,000
2010 - $3 million (approx)
2011 - $8 million (approx)
2012 - $12 million (approx)
2013 - Free Agent
Offer him 6 yrs/$45 million. This will buy out two FA years, while still paying Chad an average of $7.5 mill per year. It's fair for both sides.
5th outfielder extraordinaire Andre Ethier who homered in three straight games July 2,3 and 4.
I guess his only incentive to sign that deal would be if he thinks he may break down or have a drop off in effectiveness. I don't see any indication for him to think either of those things are likely. If I'm the Dodgers I love that deal.
I agree with you RE: Chad (and Martin, Kemp, Broxton & Loney for that matter). However, if it's a 6-year deal, it would need to be more than $45m using your example. The first four years add up to $23.5m, leaving only an average of $10.75m for the two FA years. More than likely for a 6-year contract the total would be about $50m, probably including a $1m or so singing bonus as well.
If Chad were to sign an extension, I would guess it would be through 2012, perhaps with an option for 2013.
Manny's OPS drops over 350 points against the sub 3.50 crowd versus the over 5.50.
signing bonus - $750k
3rd yr - $500k
1st arb yr - $2.6m
2nd arb yr - $4.65m
3rd arb yr - $6.5m
1st FA yr - $9m option
2nd FA yr - $12m option
As far as I can tell the option has no buyout money, so the total guaranteed is 4/$15m. Chad should command more than that, but this is a rough idea for the starting point.
>> CHICAGO -- The Pirates had made up their minds not to trade Jason Bay six minutes before Major League Baseball's trading deadline Thursday, general manager Neal Huntington said, rejecting two firm offers on their table.
But they left open one exception.
"At 3:54, we made the decision that we're either going to wait for this Boston-Los Angeles deal or we're holding onto Jason Bay and walking away from a couple other deals," Huntington said by phone from Pittsburgh. <<
## Huntington credited his calm to the work done by his scouts and new statistical analysts, Dan Fox and Eddie Epstein, the latter armed with a database for every name tossed about in late talks. ##
http://tinyurl.com/5p2pmb
Eddie Epstein, the co-author (with Rob Neyer) of one of my favorite baseball books ever, "Baseball Dynasties". I believe he has worked for the Padres and Orioles in the past as well.
Just based on Joe Moeller's 1964 baseball card I thought he was destined for greatness. If you can't be any good when pitching for the Dodgers between 63-68 you really weren't very good.
What do you think Chad will get in his 3 arb years? I could see 7/10/13 or something to that effect, but not much higher.
Chien-Ming Wang lost his arb case as a super two and got $4m. With normal progression, his 4th year salary should be in the $6-8 range.
Thank goodness that Buzzie Bavasi and Walter O'Malley showed more patience with Koufax than their successors did with more recent Dodger pitching prospects.
For people who make their living evaluating baseball talent, the Koufax story must be quite humbling.
I agree Howard has set the bar pretty high, but also is unique in that he has the shiny MVP award under his belt to inflate his salary.
Different world. The Dodgers were forced to keep him on the roster because of the bonus baby rules. It ruined many a prospect.
Sandy felt the Dodgers were very impatient with him and felt he'd been productive a lot sooner if they just let him pitch. You'd be startled if you looked at his game logs and how long he'd go between appearances.
If you want a great read on Sandy and the his reality of how the Dodgers treated him, I'd suggest the solid Jane Leary book.
http://tinyurl.com/6lxt5t
This is particularly problematic for teh Dodgers as they will have Martin and Bills and Kershaw all very close to each other as being Arb eligible players that could easily command $10M in year 1.
With that, Frank Robinson is the only one I didn't see mentioned that I could come up with.
I think Stew might be willing to work something out. Then again, he knows these guys are future superstars.
GMJR has a OPS+ of 70, and was ranked as the worst defensive CF in baseball last year (not sure about this year), and has played 97 games compared to Pierre's 82. SO GMJR has been way suckier this year. So yay Pierre.
He was talking about Hee Seop Choi:
http://tinyurl.com/6cy8he
As you can tell, I'm not a statistician, but that seems pretty good to me.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3519111
I was trying to look up Stewart, because I thought he had made some critical comments about the Dodgers regarding Kemp or Billingsley, but instead I came across this humorous passage from an interview a few years ago:
http://tinyurl.com/5br8bs
"What a joke in '90. Me placing 4th. My numbers were clearly better than Welch's other than the 27 wins; in every category I killed the league. The proof is there. I couldn't overcome the 27 wins, [but] that doesn't explain not placing second above the other two guys."
The other two guys he refers to are Clemens and Eckersley. Stewart actually finished 3rd. But here's how #2 Clemens compared to Stew in 1990:
Stew: 267 IP, 22-11, 83/166 BB/K, 145 ERA+
Clemens: 228.1 IP, 21-6, 54/209 BB/K, 213 ERA+
A joke?
Would you rather have Mark Fainaru-Wada-Real or Chris Hansen on your tail? I don't think the end is pretty either way.
--
Btw, some amusing banter in an article by Tim Goodman about this Fall's Monday Night Football slate and their new team of hosts:
>>The two {Dan Patrick and Keith Olbermann} joked readily about their chemistry and approach to highlights.
"We are just going to sit in the back of the studio - like being in the back of the classroom - and Keith and I are just going to try to make paper airplanes and do highlights and just try to keep it simple and only speak when spoken to," Patrick said. "It's sort of like joining the 'Ocean's 11' crew. This is the 'Costas 11' crew, and I'm Elliott Gould or Carl Reiner."
Olbermann: "Carl Reiner." Patrick: "Carl Reiner. Thank you. So that would make you Elliott Gould." Olbermann: "All right. I'll take Carl Reiner." Patrick: "Or the little gymnast, you can be him, too."<<
is that MNF article.
I'll be happy just to watch the football game. The rest of the side show I can do without.
http://sportsblogs.latimes.com/sports_baseball_dodgers/2008/08/another-manny-s.html
It wasn't an argument simply played out in the media, but reinforced by the manager and voices within the organization. Because of it, every at bat by a player under 25 has been scrutinized and analyzed for its "professional" qualities, with mistakes magnified. In Anaheim, the same line of questioning, whether accurate in its foundation or not, would have been rejected out of hand. If the organization decided the children were the future (and in many ways, they have), support of that chosen path would ring like a mantra. We, meaning the media, would write whatever we wanted, but nobody within the Angels organization would make it easier for us. As a group, they're almost cultish about devotion to message.
Dave Stewart always talks about he beat Roger Clemens in head to heads. Perhaps he means that
That he did. Including the postseason, Dave Stewart and Roger Clemens were opposing starting pitchers 10 times. Stewart won 9 of those games, including 5 in 1990 (3 in the regular season).
Career Matchups
Stewart: 9-1, 74 IP, 38 K, 2.19 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
Clemens: 1-8, 56.1 IP, 51 K, 5.27 ERA, 1.63 WHIP
I still think Clemens should have won the CYA in 1990 (over both Stewart and the winner Welch), but Stewart did seem to have Clemens' number.
This 1988 game that I went to was a thriller. And I had free tickets for the game right next to the RF foul pole. I was actually more impressed by watching Dwight Evans throw.
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1988/B08300OAK1988.htm
http://blog.nbx.com/2007/09/throwin-heat--2.html
>> Several days before the deadline the Red Sox first requested Matt Kemp from Los Angeles, a seemingly reasonable proposition considering that the ultra-talented Kemp was known to be frustrating some of his bosses, including manager Joe Torre, with his inconsistent play and baffling baserunning.
The Dodgers said no.
The Red Sox lowered their request to a combination of young outfielder Andre Ethier and third-base prospect Andy LaRoche. Considering L.A.'s excess of outfielders and LaRoche's falling stock, that seemed more reasonable.
The Dodgers still said no. <<
## The Red Sox requested struggling shortstop prospect Chin-lung Hu (.159 average in 107 major league at-bats this season) but were told that he was on L.A.'s untouchable list. ##
http://tinyurl.com/6r9376
I will bet you any amount of money that all of these things happen:
1) Howard will earn more than $10m in 2009
2) Martin will make more than $2m in 2009 (first arb year)
3) Billingsley will make more than $2m in 2010 (first arb year)
What. You mean the part where he's hitting .295/.350/.469 or the part where he plays all three outfield positions. Or the part where he has 26 steals to his 8 caught stealing. Come on Heyman. Or the part where Torre regularly praises the play of Matt Kemp. I know you hate the Dodgers, but you gotta do better than this.
• The Dodgers already had a glut of outfielders, and now it's a bigger glut. They were already looking for takers for Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones (the dreadful Jones would need to be accompanied by a hitting instructor), and their search can continue because both are certain to clear waivers. In either case the Dodgers would have to eat a lot more money than Boston did with Ramirez.
Torre, and the Dodgers in general, suffer from what Bill James once said was the most common form of mismanagement: focusing on what a player can't do and losing sight of what he can.
vr, Xei
vr, Xei
In other words, what is the risk for a team claiming a guy to prevent a rival from getting him, even though they have no intention of actually bringing them onto their squad?
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/waiver-wire-primer/
But, I have already grown tired of the phrase, "Manny being Manny."
Just trainwreck being trainwreck.
1. We finally got the big power bat we've been waiting for for so long
2. Any blockbuster trade will have its honeymoon period
3. Since Manny was so eager to leave Boston, it's in our best interest to be over-enthusiastic about having him here since let's be honest - he's basically a little kid that loves the attention
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/08/edes_stands_by.html
Don't forget that the Dodgers' arb cases will be argued by Kim Ng, who beat Boras over Gagne, back when Gagne was streaking.
So according to the primer, if Team B claims a player from Team A, they can become stuck with him. So shouldn't we put Pierre on the waiver wire just on the off chance that someone would claim him? You never know, stranger things have happened. Maybe it's a poorly designed drop down menu and there happens to be a really desirable player in the alphabetical vicinity. There doesn't seem to be a downside for a team placing overpriced, past mistakes on the waiver wire, so why wouldn't we put both Pierre and Jones on waivers.
As a general rule, do most players placed on waivers sail through unclaimed?
That has almost certainly already happened.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Puma
I've been so wooooooooooooooooooooried about him.
Mmanny "clean-up" his apprearance/
personally, I think both players should dress/appear the way that they personally choose.
Butch
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