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Dark Clouds
2003-04-25 09:14
by Jon Weisman
Note: The Dodger Thoughts blog has moved to the Los Angeles Times.

On January 13, I wrote that the Dodgers have been luckier the past two seasons than not, based on two things:

1) their record in one-run games
2) their overall record compared to their Pythagorean record.

(Brief recap of what Pythagorean record means: Bill James devised a formula in which he found he could predict what a teamÕs won-lost record was simply by using two numbers Š runs scored and runs allowed that season Š and plugging them into a formula. Presumably, a team that won more than the formula predicted was lucky and/or overachieved, and vice versa.)

This year, one could argue that the Dodgers have not been lucky. They are 3-6 in one-run games, way off their 33-15 pace of last season. Their Pythagorean record indicates they should be 12-10 in 2003, not 9-13 as they are.

On the other hand - remove one 16-4 victory over the Giants, and the Dodgers go from outscoring opponents this season, 78-73, to underscoring them, 62-69. Their Pythagorean record then drops to 10-12.

Mind you, it's not too late for this to turn around. A home run would help.

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