Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
Screen Jam
TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
At True Blue L.A., Andrew Grant does us all a favor and shatters some myths about Jonathan Broxton's lack of closer mentality. Grant acknowledges that Broxton hasn't been perfect but puts it all in perspective. (Note that the June 7, 2007 game that is mentioned represents one of the Dodgers' worst defensive ninth innings in recent times, which is saying something.)
The most disturbing part about the accusations that have been flung at Broxton has been the lack of recognition that for most of his career, Broxton has been facing down situations more difficult than protecting a ninth-inning lead. Those appearances where he keeps the other team from scoring in a tie game, for example, don't grab headlines, but they are most meaningful.
My theory about people who conclude that Broxton doesn't have the toughness to be a closer is that they don't mentally record the many times he does succeed, that the memory of failure is simply overpowering.
Now, as ToyCannon brought up in the comments Monday, there might be issues with Broxton's arm strength or health to fret over. That, we'll have to keep an eye on. But Broxton is plenty good to be trusted when the chips are down.
* * *
Nomar Garciaparra will return from the disabled list tonight and start at shortstop (still waiting to hear who will go off the active roster). The Dodgers react to Cole Hamels starting by making James Loney the best No. 8 hitter in the game for one night and letting Juan Pierre get some outfield work in. Juan, you just catch all the balls and then shovel them to Manny for the throws.
I think Dodger fans expect a closer to have a nasty curve and a change. Gagne and Saito had them, so I guess all closers have to have them. Broxton is a different kind of closer, kind of a throwback to the power closers of the 80s and 90s. Whatever works.
I think we're also used to near-perfection among our closers, although some of that perception resides in distorted memories. Saito blew saves, Trevor Hoffman blows saves, Mariano Rivera blows saves. It happens. These pitchers don't have 0.00 ERAs. Broxton will blow more saves before the year is out. But he's an above-average closer.
Kemp
Blake
Kent
Ramirez
Loney
Martin
Nomar
Pierre
Kershaw
Martin would normally be in the 2 spot but his recent struggles keep him in the lower half for now.
Kuo 2.29
Saito 1.996
Broxton 1.346
In fairness, it should be mentioned that Broxton has been used in higher leverage situations than Kuo, but not Saito. Broxton doesn't even make the top 25 in the league by that metric, and isn't in the top 30 in MLB. Broxton can be dominant, but has had some stretches where he just falls apart, and judging by his performance versus his peers, it seems fairer to say he's on the cusp of excellence. His ERA+ has declined from 160 in 2007 to 121 2008, perhaps fueled in part by a slight uptick in WHIP. It's no illusion to say he's having more trouble this year than last.
For every ugly number he is putting up, there is an uglier number behind it. His season average is .161, but in so-called clutch situations -- defined as late in a close game -- he is hitting .147. When the score is tied, he's down to .095.
Runners in scoring position? He's hitting .086. He's also slugging .086, which means every one of those hits has been a single. And the more clutch the situation, the worse Jones becomes. With two outs and runners in scoring position, he's hitting .077.
WOW. This is really bad.
For more, here is the link.
http://www.sportsline.com/columns/story/10928887/1
It's Beimel Bobblehead Night - the Dodgers have to win for the Beimelnator.
Its insane that this 20 year old is slated for 170 innings.
If we make the playoffs, they'll be tempted to keep him in the rotation.
He needs to be slotted into the Kuo role for the rest of the year to minimize his innings IMO. We could use more solid pen arms with Saito out anyway.
We could find a fifth starter in any number of ways including Maddux, Park, McDonald et al.
Arm trouble this or next year, there will be l-term damage for LAD.
It's no secret that Kuo 2008 or Broxton 2007 has been better than Broxton 2008. I'd just like people to realize that those are some very high standards.
What's to lose with cutting Berroa?
So while I may have confident in Broxton's ability to pitch well, I don't have a lot of confidence that he is going to get a save when we are up by only one run.
Time should prove me wrong, but I won't be turning off any games secure in the knowledge that the jello is jiggling.
Not as many chances for the 3rd place Yankee's. God I love writing the "3rd place Yankees" almost as much as I love writing "first place Rays".
BlueBleeder should have to pitch left handed to us, or we should get to use a tennis racket.
Who's complaining? Be realistic.
vr, Xei
Broxton overpowers many hitters but even weak hitters can slap to the opposite field and cause trouble if too many pitches are thrown hard and away and up just a little.
Trying to jam a hitter at the hands too often winds up getting the pitcher behind in the count and it seems like Broxton has been doing this (too much).
I would actually advocate picking up Maddux for this sole reason, to limit Kershaw's innings, and to make sure in the post season that he's in the starting rotation, and not Kershaw. Then again Maddux might push Bills out of the first round rotation due to his own high innings count... never mind!
vr, Xei
Its a tossup between Penny and Bills for the 2nd game because while Penny's coming back from an injury, this is the same person who won two games from Torre's Yankees in 2003. While Torre won't make a decision based solely on that basis, it could be one of the many thoughts in the back of his head.
Fernando Tatis scoffs
I do however disagree with Jon's 48 . Is a scenario where Kershaw posts a 2.50 ERA from here on out, and becomes clearly our third-best starter, so implausible as to have zero chance of happening?
Kuroda could keep on struggling. Brad Penny has an 86 mph fastball now -- that speaks volumes about his chances of starting any postseason game. I think Kershaw has as good a shot as either of them to be the third, or especially fourth starter in a playoff series.
Is it likely? Not really. But the chances are much greater than zero.
Youklis was responsible for the first and third out. Both of them strikeouts.
The only one who hasn't? Greg Miller.
The trick is to say what you should have said.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, Pierre wouldn't make the starting 10 on my rec league softball team.
But at least it wasn't a blown save.
Still, I have a very difficult time believing that.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2669903
That's er. That's just great Ned.
I don't know. Aren't bunting and stealing bases usually illegal in rec league softball...?
If Kuroda and Penny both struggle (as in your scenario) and no replacements are found, the Dodgers won't make the playoffs.
As for Kershaw getting a post season start, I would think there's a chance, though I'd put it at about 10% right now. First, the Dodgers have to make the playoffs, then Torre has to decide that Kershaw is better than other choices not named Lowe and Billingsly.
As far as Penny and Kuroda struggling, Penny has been a disaster his last nine starts before the most recent one. And Kuroda has had streches where he has struggled. It would be hard to make the playoffs if they both struggle, but to say they won't is giving AZ too much credit IMO.
And lastly, great idea on posting the lineup up on top of the post. It's so blindingly simple I can't believe I never thought of requesting for it. But it's unbelievably useful and takes out at least 5-6 posts everyday about who's in the lineup.
If they make it to the postseason, they're going to go for the gold, and Kershaw will be part of that.
Colletti and Torre haven't shown a willingness to stick with any plan for more than about five minutes, and I don't see that changing where Kershaw is concerned.
Only against the Angels.
Andre Ethier, RF
Matt Kemp, CF
Pablo Ozuna, 2B
Manny Ramirez, LF
Casey Blake, 3B
Nomar Garciaparra, SS
Russell Martin, C
James Loney, 1B
Chan Ho Park, P 7th
Cory Wade, p 8th
Jonathan Broxton, p 9th
Therefore, the contrapositive is true: If the Dodgers make the playoffs, then Kuroda or Penny will have pitched well.
If Kuroda or Penny pitch well, then Kershaw will not start a playoff game.
If the Dodgers do not make the playoffs then Kershaw will not start a playoff game.
Therefore, Kershaw will not start a playoff game.
That "or" should be "and," given that a presumptive NLCS would require four starters. (In the Division Series you could possibly get away with three depending on the TV schedule.)
83 - He might be part of it, but I think it would be out of the bullpen if at all. There's the whole "veteran" angle to consider as well, although Kuo did get that start in NY.
If Kuroda or Penny struggle, then the Dodgers will not make the playoffs.
Therefore, the contrapositive is true: If the Dodgers make the playoffs, then Kuroda and Penny will have pitched well.
If Kuroda and Penny pitch well, then Kershaw will not start a playoff game.
If the Dodgers do not make the playoffs then Kershaw will not start a playoff game.
Therefore, Kershaw will not start a playoff game.
Though I'm not so sure I agree with that set of premises.
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.