Watches the newspaper spin

Maybe Pausch got his idea from that book?

My cousin just revealed to me that I have made it, I am rated on ratemyprofessors.com:

http://ratemyprofessors.com/ShowRatings.jsp?tid=895198

I think this means that I am a real boy now. The one from March is the only honest rating.

3 Hotness Total: 0

You have obviously not doing your job to bring in the co-eds.

This one has got to be on the short list of worst games in Jeff Kent's career, right?

1st inning: With a runner on second, grounds out to short.

3rd inning: Kills a potential rally by loafing and turning a should-be double into a single. Next batter hits into GIDP.

5th inning: With a runner on third and one out, strikes out.

7th inning: With the bases loaded and one out, strikes out.

7th inning: Falls asleep on defense, letting a runner score from second on a routine groundout.

9th inning: With runners on first and second and no outs, hits a double play ball. (Which the defense drops, getting only one out, but still.)

Tonight's game should make us go back to the days of Milt Gaston.
https://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/710522.html

https://griddle.baseballtoaster.com/archives/360686.html

Talk about a perspective check. (That story is, Jon.) Baseball, schmaseball.

7 Exactly.

Iguchi & Edmonds have to be among the worst signings that Kevin Towers has ever made.

I <3 Jody Gerut.

Jody Gerut is my favorite player in the history of baseball.

And I, for the moment, no longer hate the Padres!

4 At some point one must accept that he is not hot and focus his efforts on bragging about knowing Latin, and rambling on and on about his softball team.

Dbax have now lost a staggering 13 games in which they either led or were tied in the 8th inning and later.

My love Jody Gerut has a better OPS+ than any Dodger not named Furcal or Manny.

Wow, Mad Men was really good. (Just watched last night's.) Mrs. Barrett is turning into a great character; I didn't expect her to add much depth other than being a plot device or along those lines, but... Great episode.

Go Padres. (Sheesh.)

Wow! Padres pull it off. Sweet!

I'm gonna enjoy it now, but it won't be the same when Jody Gerut does the same thing against Broxton next month :0)

We have the worst four game series in recent memory and lose only one game in the standings. Arizona may be three up but that's room for a tiny bit of optimism considering Washington is our next series.

The one from March is the only honest rating.
That's hilarious.

One time, I saw one of my former professors in a bar and had a beer with him.

meh... I think I'm more concerned because our road record against division leaders is:

0-4 vs Philly, this after sweeping them at home.
3-0 vs Florida
1-3 vs NYM
1-2 vs Stl
0-3 vs ChC
2-4 vs AZ

for a grand total of...

6-16 against all division leaders on the road. Is there a silver lining to this?

18 I served one of my former professors a beer in a bar.

Forgot to add the Brewers in there:

2-1 vs Mil on the road

so that makes it 8-17... I guess its reasonable.

---

I can only imagine how much better the team would be if they had Furcal healthy and swinging a good bat. Like Jon said, this is it. The Dodgers won't be playing any more above .500 teams this year except Arizona. I'm shocked that Az couldn't gain more ground, but I will take it!

One of my teachers went bowling with us and got drunk and ripped on his wife and the other teachers in the department. He was leaving to NYU after the semester.

He also tried the Yoda for first time.

re: Freeman

What a sad, yet perfect case of irony: the very man who wrote about things to do before death dying way too young.

Do you suppose he managed to complete many of the 100 things he wrote about?

22

LOL

"Inebriated I am! Gutter I have hit... mmm?"

22
His wife was a TA in the department so we all knew her.

19 , 21 - Silver lining - most of those games were without our new and improved lineup (+manny+blake-pierre).

The Dodgers losing is worrisome, and it is frustrating leaving bases loaded with no outs and one outs, but remember, it's a good thing to get into these situations. And the Dodgers have been doing that pretty consistently. Their hits are just out of sync. They will sync up and we will be fine. The healing needs to start at WAS. 2 of 3 there and 2 of 3 at ARI would leave me very happy.

17 Thanks..that is a great way of looking at things.

Andrew Lambo had an RBI single in his Jacksonville debut today.

25- I know someone who has done a certain substance with one of their TA's ;)

15
Mad Men was really good. The linking of Peggy & Don is definitely something that can be explored further.

Oh yeah, and Pete Campbell is one of the jerkiest jerks that ever, well, you know.

30 Yeah, I have trouble even watching scenes involving Pete's marriage. They're well done, but just squirmy. He's hard to take in that realm.

I'll gladly give you a Hamburger tomorrow for an Eddie Guardado today.

28 Lambo's in double A already? Are we seeing another player skipping Triple A because he's just too good for the minors?

5 - if you believe in WPA, this game isn't even his worst this year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?gameid=280825122

His April 11 game against the Padres takes that title:

http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2008-04-11&team=Dodgers&dh=0&season=2008

He only stranded four baserunners, but one of them was on third with one out and three in the bottom of the ninth trailing the Padres by two.

34 http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN200804110.shtml

33 Yep, he was promoted this week, skipped over the Cal league. I would assume he'd start next season in Jax, too, this was just a taste. And then would also assume he'd then go to AAA after that, not skip straight to the bigs unless he not only rakes but there are a series of unforeseen events (as with DeWitt this year). Otherwise, I'd assume AA and AAA for him next year. Cool that he's being noticed quickly though.

4 white supremacists arrested in plot to assasinate Obama on Thursday.

http://tinyurl.com/5q5tpk

37 This might violate rule 5

Not really politics. Someone plotting to kill a well known figure for non-political reasons.

36 Do you know anything about Lambo's defense, or are they just going to stash him at Left Field?

40
I just remember there was talk that he probably would not stick at third and would be moved to outfield or first.

greetings from Dallas, I unfortuanly suffored through three horrid games on national television here in the lonestar state.
Lets hope we stick it to the nationals and that B Webb some how has an off night tomorrow..

Three months removed from being drafted in the second round by the Dodgers, Lindblom earned the promotion after notching 33 strikeouts against only four walks in 29 innings with a 1.86 ERA. The 21-year-old right-hander out of Purdue pitched five no-hit innings in his last start.

How good is Lindblom?

http://www.pe.com/sports/baseball/dodgers/stories/PE_Sports_Local_S_dodgers_notes_26.496b103.html

43 It's kind of what was projected. He was seen as a guy that could help the bullpen as early as late next year. His upside isn't huge, but he could be a decent setup guy in the near future.

Actually (not joking either), I found that Freeman article to be comforting. Then again, I also found Murakami's 'Norwegian Wood' optimistic in the end.

But changing gears, the really good, cathartic laugh I needed after this Philly series came from a quote at the end of tonight's LAT game recap:

"I'm not a wizard,"

Interesting that despite this "we're all to blame" theme, Bowa is really blaming Kent, Torre is looking at Kent and Blake, and the Times is blaming those two and Nomar. I'm so used to seeing the young guys blamed for everything that this is really rather surprising.

R.I.P. Kevin Duckworth

Casey Blake had one of those games (series) that I can understand, Kent from what I read in the comments could have made a play but didn't so I guess the times has a legit reason to blame him.

Why are they blaming Nomar?

I blame Gary Bennett.

48 On Monday, they were one for 17 with runners in scoring position, including Jeff Kent's going 0 for 4 in that situation and striking out twice when even a fly ball would have driven in a run.

Nomar Garciaparra, 35, did not start after starting 11 of 12 games since the Dodgers activated him from the disabled list. He is batting .163 since then, with no extra-base hits.

Blake, 35, has started every game since the Dodgers acquired him July 26. He is batting .218 this month and has not driven in a run in nine games.

Odds of the Dodgers making the playoffs:

July 31, 2008: 31%
August 26, 2008: 30%

51
BP really ought to say "Playoff Probabilities" instead of "Playoff Odds".

BTW: Is there any Manny Ramirez "buzz" these days, or is it all dead?

52 For me, the buzz went bye bye when the D Backs got Dunn.

Seems to me the veterans are doing exactly what their PVL-ness is supposed to help them do. Their post-game comments indicate that, despite the Times' best efforts, they're not going to panic over a four-game slump when there's a month left to play and they trail a flawed team by just three games.

Of course, there's no indication that the young players are cracking open one another's skulls and feasting on the goo inside, but...

50
Nomar's walk off home run doesn't count as an extra base hit? Did the Times fire all their editors?

48 , 50 . The media, again, shows how stupid they are. The print media just has so little quality in sports reporting. Small Sample Size is their bread an butter. It really is stunning.

It is one thing to report on the happenings of a game. That is a needed function of the sports reporter - to poetically and interestingly tell the story of a game that passed. I remember a post by Jon a few weeks ago that was a paragraph or two long that said something like "it's all about the outfield." I remember reading it and thinking "that was a really great introduction to that game. I bet if I go read Tony Jackson in my paper (local Pasadena paper), he'll be ranting (or raving - I forget whether the Dodgers won or lost that game) about how some specific fact in the shows the new trend or shows how the Dodgers are still [something]. I was, of course, correct.

It is the rare reporter that is not some combination of lazy and stupid. It is even more rare to find a lack of those attributes in sports reporting. I think it is hard work to be a good baseball reporter. Almost every day for seven months you have to describe what happened in a game. Since the game ends late at night, the reporter probably has less than an hour or two to get a draft in to the editor. Being creative and poetic and insightful about the game is just a lot harder than ranting or raving about some Small Sample Size analysis. Almost everyone chooses the later approach. I wish I knew why - I guess that the economics of hiring someone with real talent just don't work out. /shrug.

"striking out when even a fly ball would have driven in a run." - using two! samples. How can they conclude anything with two data points? I mean all three of those quotes are stupid. But that one in particular irritated me, especially in light of the greater context of Kent's August performance. Kent is hitting .386/.413/.477. The reporter managed to parse his 91 PA's down to two in order to complain and lay some blame. Outrageous.

51
Amazing

46

I am not surprised by the shift of blame, but it is really weird to read.

When guys like Kent play like they did last night I expect he is hurting. It would be nice to see Manny get another hit with someone on base before Sept comes.

Andrew has a True Blue line up about our history making debacle last night.

0 I am also 47 years old. I imagine I've done close to none, if not exactly none, of the 100 things. We are doing some renovations, so the slip and fall danger is at least yellow alert. Hmmmmm.

9
Iguchi & Edmonds have to be among the worst signings that Kevin Towers has ever made.

Since Towers traded for Edmonds, he is hitting .231/.341/.462, good enough for a 110 OPS+ for a CF. That's not a bad investment for ~$5.7m (the amount the Padres are paying). However, you could argue he's actually not been that good since he has been the worst (34th) CF in MLB, with an off the charts -20 plus/minus rating.

The mistake, of course, was cutting bait on Edmonds at what looks to be far too soon.

56

Fantastic

Can we get Joe Pos to come to the times?

56
It was a game summary-small data points always apply.

22 My favorite story of my father's college days at Rutgers, c. 1954 is about one of his professors for one of his courses in History of Mexico or similar - he was kind of a Latin American studies minor before the term was in vogue - and the prof took the student to a local town tavern to teach them the proper methods and techniques for drinking tequila.

He never quite tells me all the details, but to this day he claims than tequila "does not agree" with him.

Of all the things Jeff Kent has said over the years, I think this is my favorite. From today's Times:

--------------

Kent said he had to monitor Werth breaking from second, another runner coming from first, the batter and the batted ball.

"I'm not a wizard," Kent said.

---------------

That quote cracks me up for some reason.

63 No they do not. SSS of course applies to describing the events that took place. That is all well and good. SSS has, however, no place in analysis. The distinction is not hard.

If you are drawing conclusions about why the Dodgers lost a particular game, fine. If you are drawing larger conclusions about "how the Dodgers are playing" generally, not fine.

56 Small Sample Size is their bread an butter.

This was Kent's exact complaint to Simers the other day, which would have been a better discussion than the eventual "is he disrespecting Scully?" rhubarb.

Yah, I have to say that despite Kent's bad game yesterday, and legit worries about his defense, he's scarcely been the Dodgers problem the past two weeks. Whether it's Manny influence or no, he's been red hot up til then. But I do like seeing blame spread to the PVL in general for once, as Nomar has contributed nothing after a small burst of hope when he first came back and Blake is slumping. And now even Manny is slumping (although in fairness he's also hit some balls hard that were either windblown back or at someone). Martin was slumping horribly too, until the last couple of games (which hopefully is a good sign). At any rate, slumps happen, and most of these guys are capable of coming right back out of it again, too. They looked like a team that had suddenly hit a wall in the Phills series, and need to get a second wind starting now. They also look like a team that could use reinforcements.

65 It was funny. It was also exceptionally polite given the things Bowa was saying about Kent - and the team in general.

65 Maybe it's because it makes you picture Kent wearing a tall pointy hat with stars on it and a long wand which he points at 2nd base, saying a few spells he learned at Hogwarts?

Joe with another great read.
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/08/25/exhaustion-and-bruce/

68
The reinforcements were Manny, Blake, Maddux, and Nomar. They need to step up and do the job.

I have a feeling that Manny is not feeling this is a vacation anymore.

55 I think they're saying in his last 12 games no extra base hits. I thought the same thing you thought initally, it was very poorly written.

72 True, and except for Nomar, I have faith those other guys will still step it up, they definitely all need to. But I was also thinking of young reinforcements after Sept 1, plus the return of Cory Wade. Someone like Hu should help the defense, too, if he's actually allowed to play. But those vets need to step it up this week, it's true.

Is Jeff Kent's new nickname the "non-wizard"

74 The game-ending HR by Nomar was ten games ago. The .163 BA is definitely since returning from the DL (12 games ago). Just an incorrect sentence, because "since then" can only refer to "since being activated from the DL".

76 Is that a "muggle"?

59 I think I speculated last night that Kent may be hurting, perhaps has been, on-and-off, all season.

2004 4th round pick and Huntington Beach native Collin Balester pitches for the Nats tonight. So far the 22-year old has been homeriffic, giving up 8 in 48.2 IP, including 5 HR in 22 home innings.

41 Lambo was drafted as a 1B and I recall scouting reports being favorable about his defense there. He's left-handed all the way so 3B was not a consideration, although he did manage to appear there once in rookie ball - must have been a sight! He's primarily played corner OF in the minors; I imagine that being partly because of the Dodgers lack of OF prospects, partly because 1B is (may be?) blocked by Loney for some time to come.

79 ... therefore, ToyCannon, I agree with you.

For those in the Westwood area and love basketball this story is about the pickup games going on at UCLA everyday.
http://tinyurl.com/6zq32n

Even though the story was written on 7/30 the games are still going on. This thread talks about the players that have been seen. It is mostly Clipper talk but some UCLA players get plenty of play.
http://tinyurl.com/5n3km5

81
Ortiz can only play 1st base while Lambo can play the outfield, so Lambo got the outfield call. Since he was considered a solid defensive 1st baseman it will be curious where he plays for the Suns since Russ Mitchel is not exactly someone who should be blocking him from playing 1st base.
I really hope this is just a temp promotion and that he doesn't skip High A ball next year. After having to hit in the offensively challenged Midwest league, I wanted to see what he would do in the Cal League.

70 I really want Plaschke to bust into the clubhouse and tell Jeff in his most Hagrid like voice "you're a wizard, Jeff". And then they would ride off on that sweet flying Harley. It would be Jeff's childhood wish come true.

78
Kent is very much a muggle.

Kent's not a muggle. He's a Halfling.

That left Chad Billingsley so distraught with even a seven-innings, three-run quality start that after being pulled he apologized to Torre, who meant to congratulate him.

http://www.beloblog.com/Pe_Blogs/prosports/mlb/dodgers/

I don't know how much locker room material really helps players get motivated (after all, I thought USC would be motivated to beat Stanford bases on some of Jim Harbaugh's pregame comments last year), but Rick Neuheisel is already fanning the flames of the USC/UCLA rivalry with a full page ad in the LA Times:

http://tinyurl.com/6883yk

.282 /.329 /.421 /.750

Having to keep that or insisting on keeping that in the middle of our order all year is what has cost us. And this is with the recent surge.

Bryan Morris, the Class A pitching prospect acquired in the Jason Bay trade, was shut down for the final week of Hickory's season because of pain in the biceps just below the right shoulder.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08239/906938-63.stm

89 should have added "maybe next year" to the ad. They may only win 2 games this year.

91
the Jason Bay trade

What is this "Jason Bay trade" of which you speak? :)

85

Oh man, I played that out in my head, and it was awesome.

Jeff "muggle" Kent

To go along with 90 with RISP
.244 .326 .366 .692

#79: Kent is 40 years old, playing second base almost every night. There's no doubt that he's pretty much in some sort of pain all the time.

http://tinyurl.com/comebacksooncory

Cory Wade (right shoulder inflammation) gave up one hit in one scoreless inning Monday in a Minor League rehab start for Class A Great Lakes. He could return to the Majors as early as Wednesday.

First pitch for the Dodgers' Sept. 5 game (Friday) against the D-backs has been moved from 7:40 p.m. PT to 7:08 p.m. to accommodate an ESPN telecast.

From Simers' latest:

"That's something about discipline," Torre joked after getting Ramirez to snip an inch off his dreadlocks. "You sacrifice wins, the season and everything else to have it."

Discipline is not that important, Joe.

The standard line in the days that followed the signing had been that Alvarez and his agent, Scott Boras, were having travel complications. But it became clear yesterday that this has much more to do with Boras' fairly regular practice of keeping his client away from the team an extra week or so, basically for no reason beyond drawing a line in the sand.

I don't get Boras. Is he trying to hold out Alvarez just to get a couple of more million from the Pirates? The Pirates want to fast track Alerez, he'd be more served getting his arbitration clock ticking and eventual FA.

99
The contract was already verbally agreed to, so there's no real way to squeeze more money out of the club. The only reason I can think that Alvarez has not yet shown up is that he doesn't want to play winter ball or the fall leagues. By delaying his arrival, the Pirates are less likely to send him to Arizona or Hawaii. I'm not sure why he wouldn't want to do this, but that's the only reason I could come up with.

98 I'd rather have a team full of rally beards and 80s rocker hair playing in October than a group of well-groomed, disciplined vacationers. I guess I'm not old school.

But hey, at least they'll look presentable at a resort. 1, 2, 3, Cancun!

snip an inch off his dreadlocks

Ridiculous.

96
I expect his pain threshold is high, however with the way he dogged a few plays lately maybe he has something more going on then the basic hurts and pains of a 40 year playing everyday in Aug.
When the options are Osuna or Berroa, a hurting Kent is probably still the best option. Ned couldn't have done a more pathetic job of bench support for two starting middle infielders who need a lot of help.

101
1, 2, 3, Cancun!

I miss Nick Van Exel. I'm blowing on my fingers after I submit this post.

Contrarian!

http://tinyurl.com/59d3zu

100
You gotta love it when you give out a bonus like that and the player/agent finds a reason to delay his starting date.

His future competition has seen his Babip go from .217 in June to .185 in July to .120 in August. What is up with that? How unlucky can you be even with a pathetic line drive rate?

106
It must have been pretty sweet for Alvarez to go to the ATM on August 16 or so. Just the other day, his checking account probably had $150 or so.

104 Van Exel with his version of the .4:

http://tinyurl.com/Van-Exel-Redux

Makes me miss Chick.

104 - I thought it was Ceballos that was planning Cancun, or was he the one going jet skiing in Havasu? 92-95 were dark, dark days for the Lakers.

109
Club Ced was the one who fled to Lake Havasu, while Nick The Quick was the one a few years later who broke a huddle with the "Cancun" chant.

108
I was watching that game in my freshman dorm room at UCSD. That is my favorite non-title Laker team.

Rick Fox was poised to get the rebound on that shot for the Celtics (#44).

108
Ugh. Up until now, I had managed to forget the Sam Bowie was ever a Laker.

112
Sam Bowie = "The best passing center in the NBA"

Also, I had a flat top haircut that year so I wore goggles during intramural basketball games in honor of Fred Roberts.

111
That was a fun Laker team. Elden Campbell had a Clipper mind playing in a Laker Jersey.

One thing people don't know about Sam Bowie is that he was drafted ahead of Michael Jordan.

Bowie had skills, why the Ugh? Without the injuries he'd had an excellent career. Were you a Trailblazer fan and feel remorse over not getting Jordan instead?

115
Poor Sam could cure cancer and AIDS, and his epitaph will still read "drafted ahead of Michael Jordan." :)

#103: Agreed, but perhaps Ned's hands were tied with regard to $$$? It seemed like Berroa was chosen based on the fact that the Royals are paying for it. Not sure about Ozuna. It really is sad though that a guy like Kent doesn't have a decent back-up. At his age, he really does need more time off then he's getting.

117 Bowie, at the very least, has made me forget about the Dodgers for a few moments, so he has that going for him.

Here's a link to the James Loney interview with Jim Rome yesterday, complete with Manny Ramirez impression.

http://tinyurl.com/loney-manny

114 - Elden Campbell was hilarious to watch in high school. He was so talented and yet the laziest player I've ever seen.

We were at a summer camp basketball tournament and his high school team was playing the game before us so we watched him play.

In one sequence, he blocked a 12 foot jumper (he started under the basket and looked like a pogo stick jumping out to block it), went down and dunked on someone and then sat on the scorer's table waiting for the ball to come back down to the offensive end. At which point he dunked on someone again and walked back to the defensive end (didn't get there before the shot going up).

118 He does have a decent backup in house, his name is Hu.

120 , that was awesome! Loney being Manny!!

120 Always makes me happy to see a Weird Game James appearance.

I was in grad school at Kentucky the year Bowie went number 1 in the draft. I was in the library lobby a couple of days before graduation when he walked in with two teammates. It was pretty obvious they had never been there before.

103 One of the most disappointing parts of this season is the fact that we have a poorly assembled roster. For all our resources (both talent and money), we are simply not a very good squad. We get caught in match-up problems all the time (eg. Juan Pierre pinch-hitting against a lefty). I'm starting to think Delwyn Young really IS injured!

125
If Bowie went #1, the original twin towers would have been sooooo fragile.

I just wish Loney had smiled more while doing that.

128
Yeah, it was a weird interview. James was actually pretty funny but he looked uncomfortable and it was as if the sun was in his eyes. I think he went to the Don Fehr / Bud Selig charter school of facial expressions.

128 He doesn't have the right Talk Show Mentality.

---

Btw, this was probably posted here before, but just in case...

This is kind of disgraceful.
Poor Jericho Scott.
http://tinyurl.com/5zf7wy

128 It's not like he had hard hitting questions to work with. What kind of answer do you expect to question like "do you have faith in the back end of the bullpen?"

"Not really, sometimes when Broxton comes in, he has this look on his face and I know we're in trouble."

131 - I meant when he was doing the Manny impression.

Phew,

Joe Morgan says we still have a chance becuase Arizona strikes out too much.

132 I think that makes it way more funny.

I think the interview was boring, but I blame it on the questions from Rome. Ask him something where we won't know the standard response.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Released: SS Rex Rundgren
Optioned to Triple-A: LHP Eric Stults
Placed on 7-day DL: C Fumimasa Ishibashi
Reinstated from DL: SS Justin Fuller
Placed on temporarily inactive list: C Esteban Lopez

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1604

Jon, did the death of Dave Freeman make you sad more because:

a) He died too young before accomplishing his "100 things"
b) You are working on a "100 Things" book and this is a jinx of some kind?

117 - better than whoever was the general manager that picked Bowie. I'm sure his epitaph would read something like: Here lies the guy who passed on Michael Jordan. For Sam Bowie.

There will be two GMs with that epitaph. Jordan was picked #3.

138
Stu Inman was the Portland GM. He helped build the 1977 NBA Champions, but that team will always be remembered for Bill Walton, Maurice Lucas, et al, and as Dr. Jack's team.

139
It's hard to rip a guy for picking a HOFer in Olajuwon #1, and the club did eventually win two titles with him (I know, when Michael was retired, but still).

137 - I wouldn't use the word "jinx" but both your points relate.

141
Coincidence or not, that you used the word "jinx" in a post directed to me, at the same time as me? :)

140 It would been impossible for the Houston GM not to pick Akeem the Dream, heck Chicago would have picked him if they had the number one pick.

And remember it took Jordan seven years to make an NBA Final, it took Akeem and company 2 and they defeated the defending champs in the playoffs.

Bizarre that we had enough hits to normally win that series. Only two possibilities exist. We aren't getting the breaks, or there is a large amount of choke in it.
To credit choke with a part in this cerntainly implies "clutchiness" must exist to the same degree, so I can't give it too big a role. I guess both play a roll but I would like to think with this line-up the breaks will come. When I was thinking about this I hadn't considered the stuff discussed about Kent's health, but he's not the whole story anyway. It was strange though, that he was hot as a pistol and then when really neede was cold as ice.

How about the GMs who picked Ryan Leaf or Alex Smith?

At least the former didn't take him over Peyton Manning (Manning was picked first), though I do recall there being some debate about those two guys leading up to that draft.

Saw a report both Boston and Philadelphia are looking for left-handed hitting outfielders, especially Kotsay from Atlanta. Is Ned asleep at the switch again? Offering them Pierre and half his salary is a no brainer! No prospects required in trade...

146 Big difference between taking Kotsay for one month, 400 thousand and Pierre for three years and 14 million.

Bizarre that we had enough hits to normally win that series. Only two possibilities exist. We aren't getting the breaks, or there is a large amount of choke in it.

Possibility 3: We hit a lot of singles.

Not to mention that our second-leading SLGger typically bats leadoff, behind 2-3 guys with sub-.300 OBPs.

148 Which is true, but it's a lot less true than it was a month ago.

Loney at leadoff still seems like a great plan though.

143

It was a lucky shot! :)

Instant replay starts Thursday.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-replay27-2008aug27,0,5113951.story

Somebody last night was lambasting NedCo for "not blocking a trade that sent Adam Dunn to the Dbacks."

Did the Dodgers have a realistic chance of blocking any part of that trade along the waiver wire?

The Dodgers are #1 in the NL and #3 in the MLB in "Percent of all hits that are singles", "trailing" only Seattle and Minnesota.

FYI: Arizona is 28th.

Is it NPUT time yet?

150 All three are true.

Is there a way to track the luck factor of that series? (BABIP stats?) I feel like there were a lot of balls that were hit well but just at someone that series, plus some diving plays by Phil defense and so on. Some of it was poor hitting, but it wasn't all just because of that.

Loney at leadoff still seems like a great plan though

I've been thinking about that too. He gets on base (slightly) more than Kemp, and his GIDPs would go down. Plus, Kemp's XBHs would be even more valuable with some runners on base than with the bases empty.

Loney doesn't have "the leadoff hitter's mentality" though.

That is the kind of out-of-the-box thinking we do not stand in Los Angeles!

153 Adam Dunn.

156 Average without RISP versus average with is a quick and easy thing.

158 Whaddya mean? He's got TEN stolen base attempts! ;)

153 Yes, LA trailed AZ at the time, so a claim by Ned would have precedence over Arizona's. The only "risk" would be that the Reds would simply hand LA Dunn and his expiring contract. That should be rightfully classified as "good problem to have".

And when a team is only hitting singles you have to do the little things like getting the runner over. Putting the ball in play when the outfield is back and not striking out with a runner on third and less than 2 outs.

Torre needs to hit and run more. Attempt to steal more bases. We just didn't do much of that in this horrible series. Pierre was picked off and Kemp stole third, sort of, that's it. We played station to station all four games. We didn't force the issue and Torre sort of sat back and let things happen. It didn't work.

164 But we really can't do that. Kemp is fast, Ethier and Martin are averageish and everyone else is slow as molasses. We're a station to station team with only one huge bat.

165
So start Juan, Berroa, and Ozuna together.

Got it!

Some might say with this totally incompatible lineup that Ned is playing fantasy baseball.

Wow, Ned may also be the worst fantasy baseball GM too.

163 Outside of Boston claiming Giles, and we don't know if that was a block, I think that we again could be operating in a time where teams are basically letting players like Dunn and Maddux pass through waivers like it was not too long ago.

I am not saying its right, nor particularly strategic but it was a practice that I think pretty much goes on.

Now, teams may still claim players that they legitimately want, I heard Street got claimed by a few teams, it would be doubtful that Fuentes would go unclaimed but I tend to think that it was more that type of thinking as opposed to what would happen if the Reds just let Dunn go that kept the Dodgers from claiming Dunn.

Again, I don't mean to belabor this too much but the Padres were not just go salary dump Maddux so if the D-Backs claimed him, they were not going to let him go and Maddux's no-trade clause made it impossible for them to trade him to Arizona so Arizona would have risked absolutely zero and they would have blocked any chance of the Dodgers picking him up. But they let Maddux go through waivers too, knowing that Maddux would only go to one team.

The Dodger team ERA+ is 118 which trails only the Cubs (by two) and leads Milwaukee and Arizona, also by two. However, the Dodger team OPS+ is 90, only the Giants and Nats are worse; Arizona is at 95. Obviously most of the offense is pre-Manny.

Dodger OPS+ leaders (excluding Furcal):
Manny - 178
Kemp - 112
Martin - 107
Ethier - 107
Loney - 106
Kent - 93

170 - Pre Manny and Pierre affected.

I think I might have accidentally stumbled onto something insightful here. Can you easily answer the question "how do the Dodgers win games"? Keep the other team from scoring? Then why does our defense suck? Hit singles and do the little things? Then why is most of the lineup so slow? Play station to station and wait for the three run home run? Obviously not.

171 - Pierre and his 67 OPS+. Berroa and his 46 OPS+.

169
I think teams let Maddux pass, because he is not any good.

Ned may also be the worst fantasy baseball GM too

Ned would be a much better fantasy GM, given that he cares about all the meaningless stuff that most fantasy leagues appear to care about (e.g. BA, R, SBs, W-L, etc.).

I guess on a smaller level, you should be able to point to every person on a team and have an answer to "how does this person help us win games?" without having to use cliches. We have several players who don't have an answer to this question.

176 "What would you say you do here?"

176
"I have people skills!!!"

176

What did you think of [insert name's] performance?

176
It's almost like you're saying Ned sucks at his job.

174 Again, though, if you are looking at things solely on strategy, why wouldn't the D-Backs have blocked a player that only one team (the team that at the time you are tied with) has said he would go to.

Maybe Arizona thought the Dodgers have claimed him already but again I am just saying that to a certain extent, GMs don't try to play those types of games with each other.would

178 Bob No. 1: There's two more people we can easily lose, and then there's Gary Bennett ... He's useless.

Bob No. 2: Gone.

J.D Drew has been placed on the D.L.

As has Nationals outfielder Austin Kearns.

181 It's not made public what claims were made, but Arizona couldn't block Maddux from LA because they didn't trail LA in the standings.

176 Several? I think that's a bit harsh. And at parts of this season, I think everyone on the roster could have been put on the list negative side of this ledger.

184 I think Maddux cleared waivers because just tossing Maddux's salary on us would have been pretty easy for the Padres, and then Ned would have got in trouble.

They could have also thought that we'd use Maddux to block McDonald which had a pretty good chance of working out for the Diamondbacks and would have cost us talent.

184 Maddux passed through unclaimed, if Arizona claims him, he is claimed and then he can only be dealt to Arizona.

The Dodgers didn't get Maddux in a waiver deal.

185 Right now the list is Kent and whoever happens to play shortstop.

The muggle...
http://tinyurl.com/5oaltl

Yeah, I would gladly let the Dodgers take a terrible pitcher and put him in their rotation.

I guess another question is it better to have one focused game plan, or just be sort of okay at everything?

186 Why does everyone presume the most for every other team and the worst for the Dodger's side of thinking.

I think it is that mentality that bugs me the most at times around here and sends me to the showers.

Arizona didn't claim Maddux because they didn't need him and the Dodgers didn't claim Dunn because they had no where play him and they probably also didn't want the salary. This is not some time of covert science.

These GMs operate in a small world and I think they all tend to want to be able to work with each other so the strategic deep thinking you want to ascribe to them is probably way off base to all of them.

186 187 Right, had to be. So what would happen if AZ claimed and SD dumped the contract. Would Maddux then retire rather than report? Does that leave AZ on the hook for his contract, about $2M left? Seems like a risk they might not want to take. No matter what the Padres said publically, for a team going absolutely nowhere, dumping $2M in salary must look pretty attractive.

Anybody have our BABIP for the Phillies series?

... publicly ...

192
I know Steve Phillips was notorious for claiming everyone off waivers to prevent them from going to teams in his division.

So it does happen.

193 - Maddux could have blocked any move to Arizona.

192 The difference Maddux isn't very good, and Dunn is. If the reason for not claiming Dunn is that we have no where to play him, that's bad reasoning.

I would hope anyone in charge of 80-120 million dollars would think harder than I do about these things.

198 Actually, I don't think they do. And I think that pretty much sums up most teams.

197 And that is my point. No risk.

Unless you prescribe by a theory of just claiming every good player that goes through waivers.

196 When Steve Phillips is the flag-bearer for the cause, is it time to change the flag to white?

200 I do think you should make a claim on every type A or B free agent since those guys aren't just going to get dumped on you for nothing 99% of the time.

199 - I think they do. I just think they have different criteria.

186 187

That's just not cool, man.

200 - Exactly. Arizona had NO risk whatsoever by claiming Maddux. But, they chose not to. They have their reasons, just like why we didn't claim Dunn.

And seriously have you seen Dunn in right field for Arizona? He's beyond awful. He is walking a heck of a lot though so that's nice.

But Maddux is bad for the Dodgers. Of course the D-Backs want us to take him.

If the D-Backs were stupid and wanted Mark Hendrickson in their rotation, why would we prevent it?

191 "sort of okay at everything" sounds like a recipe for a .500 team... oh, wait.

I think there'd be two questions to ask when claiming a player.

If we got this guy for free, would we be a better team?

If our competitor got this guy, would they be a better team?

Maddux doesn't help the Diamondbacks, and depending on when Maddux actually cleared waivers, the Diamondbacks could have easily assumed that he would help us because we'd have to kick Kershaw out of the rotation to support him, making us worse. Perfectly reasonable reason to not make a claim.

Lineup via ITD today:

Kemp, CF
Martin, C
Ethier, RF
Manny, LF
Loney, 1B
Nomar, SS
Blake, 3B
Berroa, 2B
Lowe, P

And seriously have you seen Dunn in right field for Arizona? He's beyond awful.

He is current a -6 in 101.2 innings in RF, translate that to the 1189 innings he played in LF last year and that converts to a -70, I think you're being very very genourous, you must be his brother in-law of something.

Ehh, what was UCLA thinking with that stupid ad in the LA Times?

The ad shows Rick Neuheisel and says the "The LA Football Monopoly is Officially Over."

Let's wait till we have a decent team.

192 "I think they [GMs] all tend to want to be able to work with each other"

Josh Byrnes: Sorry about that Maddux block. It's not personal, Ned. It's strictly business.

209 Heh. Ethier's getting the star treatment.

I know this is a .500 team, but I find them very easy to root for. I can't help shake the feeling that they are just... so... close to putting it all together. Rather than thinking the team has a fatal flaw or was put together with strategic error, I wonder if we're seeing the growing pains of a lineup in which the stars are really still very young.

Maybe I'm naive, but if Kemp can figure out going the other way AND hitting for power... if Loney can hit for the average he did in the minors... if Martin can put it together for an entire season without breaking down...

I know this sounds Pollyannaish, but: wait till next year.

I think they do. I just think they have different criteria

But it's possible that the fact they have different criteria is evidence that they don't think as hard as "we" do. Actually, it's not so much that they have different criteria, per se, but rather that the criteria they have are old/outdated, and relatively unrigorous.

People who use their criteria are generally not thinking very hard, but are just accepting the typical MO. People who think hard about these issues are able to identify the big problems with the old criteria and are able to understand why the new criteria are superior.

214 Bless you for some much-needed optimism! Who knows, but I remain optimistic about the future as well (and haven't given up on this season, crazy as it is, either), Ned or no (preferably no).

I do hope Martin gets a day off in this Nats series, though it was good to see him at least getting some hits finally.

215 - It might be evidence that they don't think as effectively as some people here do, but I do think they think/work as hard.

Awkward Camera Alert:

The press box is ridiculously high at Nationals Park. So, when they show the field on ground/fly balls it will be a very high angled shot. It will be awkward but at least you'll be prepared.

210 So what's worse than 'beyond awful'? Light years beyond awful? Megamechabeyond awful?

Oh well, we have Manny manning left which isn't a ton better... and I've always been one to harp on Dunn's defense, too.

The Providence Journal reports that the Red Sox will place J.D. Drew (back) on the disabled list.
Drew has been out for six games with back pain and a herniated disk, and Jacoby Ellsbury has moved over to right in his absence. The Sox have also reportedly been pursuing Atlanta's Mark Kotsay. For now, the team will recall infielder Joe Thurston from Pawtucket to take his roster spot. via Rotoworld.

Anyone want to wax romantic about Joe Thurston?

218 - Take a look at what I mean.

http://nationalsreview.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/high-press-box.jpg

http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/800px-Nationals_Park_181.jpg

I like Kemp Martin at the top of the lineup, though I think I'd prefer Martin Kemp.

Why does everyone presume the most for every other team and the worst for the Dodger's side of thinking.

Bc Ned has proven in lots of even "minor" deals he doesnt know what he's doing, and that most of baseball seems to be ahead of the Dodgers in terms of forward thinking front office's.

Ned's part of the dinosaur click of Brian Sabean, Jim Bowden, & Bill Bavasi. All of them may be gone after this year.

I should throw Ed Wade into that group as well.

219 Personally, I'd have gone with he's been a big wet steaming stinky pile of dog poo in RF.

Tony Jackson's notebook says the Dodgers are planning on sending a pretty decent contigent to the Arizona Fall League, Andrew Lambo, Ivan DeJesus, Jr., Lucas May and Scott Elbert. It also quotes DeJon Watson on Lindblom's promotion to AA as they want to see what he needs to do and improve on.

Arizona didn't claim Maddux because they didn't need him

Arizona didnt claim him bc he sucks (outside of Petco), and they didnt block him going to the Dodgers bc they know that wasting starts on Maddux as opposed to a James McDonald is probably beneficial to the Dbax.

225 - I would have gone that route if I felt like destroying rule 6 to it's very foundation.

223 And I am now leaning toward my earlier prediction that no matter what, Ned will be the GM in 2009, a lame duck GM but the GM nonetheless.

Another year of Ned? Boy, how much more damage can Ned do to the Dodgers' farm system?

227 Do you really believe that they believe James McDonald would be a better pitcher for the Dodgers this year than Greg Maddux? I would doubt that since I doubt any of their front office personnel has seen McDonald pitch and they certainly know that Maddux can be effective at Dodger Stadium and Petco (where he will start 4 times in September) and at best McDonald (who isn't Kershaw) could hope for is a maybe 2-3 wins.

These new stadiums are all starting to look the same.

216 Oh, I've given up on the season. Oh, they might eke out a trip to the playoffs, but best case scenario then is that they actually manage to win one against the Cubs in the NLDS. (The NLCS of Brewers-Cubs will be fantastic, though.)

I just can't call Ned on a strategic flaw when he's basically given me everything I wanted this year. For various reasons -- injuries (Furcal) and long leashes (DeWitt, Pierre) but also poor hitting (Jones, Hu) -- things didn't work out.

And I don't want to say that the Dodgers have played the best hand they could have given the cards they were dealt. I would have cut bait on Pierre long ago. I would have put LaRoche in regularly as soon as he was "healthy." And for all the handwringing over the minor deals -- deals that I probably wouldn't have made -- they are still minor deals and probably don't end up affecting the bottom line all that much.

But all that said, my point is that the team's problems may be less strategic error than sometimes things just don't work out... and maybe this year things didn't work out because the core is still so very young. There is time.

231 I think its debatable, either one could do better over a month and a half. I do think that it's totally reasonable for the Diamondbacks to think that Maddux plus a loss of talent is better for them than McDonald.

And again, it could have been Kershaw versus Maddux depending on when Maddux went on waivers.

231--Yes.
Most of the major leagues know that Maddux is done.

And if Maddux can only be effective against crappy teams, then what was stopping Mcdonald from doing the same thing?

No one has seen McDonald's stuff at the MLB level. So I think the unknown is more scary than the known (mediocrity) that is Greg Maddux.

233 That's about how I feel, too, though I haven't given up on the season. I still feel like the Dodgers could be a team to eke into the playoffs and then actually be dangerous in a short series, with their pitching depth. On the other hand, they currently have no depth on the bench and that will only be improved come September (and if they make the playoffs) IF they make the right decisions re: who to use and keep. There are probably too many Ifs that have to come through to them to have a shot this year, so more realistically I'm thinking the way you are about it and maybe will be pleasantly surprised.

And again, it could have been Kershaw versus Maddux depending on when Maddux went on waivers.

I can't believe that I'm actually taking the pro-Ned position in this thread, but:

...you're really dinging Ned for the waiver deal he didn't make just because of what it could have been?

My basic problem with Ned Colletti is, not even once has he attempted to trade or sign a player entering his prime. The closest he came was his ill fated signing of Jason Schmidt and possibly the Kuroda signing.

Outside of that, every person he acquires has his best days behind him. And trades I thought would be slam dunks, like sending guys like Lowe and/or healthy Penny to the Marlins for prospects, don't materialize.

Ned doesn't like to take risks. I understand the need to attract fans to the ballpark, but little things like the Lugo trade, the Baez trade, and on and on add up after a while.

Incidentally, how's Scott Proctor doing lately?

Yep, probably his best signing was Raffy Furcal bc he precisely was in his prime, but that only worked for 1.5 seasons.

The next GM is going to have a major job on their hands bc the roster as is is either filled with too young, too old, or a few prime players that no one is quite sure how good they'll be.

The constants are going to be Billz/Kershaw/Kemp/Martin---> but anyonje else could conceivably be moved to improve the team.

237 I'm not. Here's the series of events that I think happened:

~August 1st: Maddux goes on waivers.

Arizona: The Dodgers don't need Maddux, Penny comes back in a couple days so they'd have to bump Kershaw out of the rotation.

Us: We don't need Maddux, Penny comes back in a couple days so we'd have to bump Kershaw out of the rotation.

~August 3rd: Maddux clears waivers, can now be traded at any time.

~August 15th

Us: Crap, Penny's hurt! We need to replace him, let's go get Maddux.

238 - Furcal and Pierre. Not disagreeing necessarily with your point, but those two were signed to contracts that covered their late 20's, early 30's, if I remember correctly.

238 - Just addressing the narrow point of Schmidt - even in a best case scenario, Schmidt was exiting his prime.

I keep forgetting Furcal was a Ned hire (as was Ethier FWIW). I associated Raffy with JD Drew and Kent for some unexplained reason.

238 As for "players entering/in their prime" that Colletti acquired, add Jones. Yes, it didn't work out, and there will be many who'll say they told us so... but that's the good part of the 2-year deal. We're stuck with him next year, and that's it. That's why I favored the deal, why I still think it was worth a shot. It's too bad that it didn't work, but the long-term cost isn't enormous.

It's hardly Zito territory.

241 Why did Ned sign two leadoff hitters?

Revised Dodger Lineup

Kemp, LF
Ethier, RF
Kent, 2B
Ramirez, LF
Loney, 1B
Martin, C
Garciaparra, SS
Blake, 3B
Lowe, P

As hard as this group thinks we have all been wrong numerous times. While the numbers may not lie, performance does not always follow the numbers. At one time or another someone has been championed here only to sink under the pressure of DT expectations.

I expect the management of the Dodgers thinks harder and longer about the team then the combined brain effort of all the bloggers and posters, and it is also true that they aren't that effective, so what are they doing with all that hard work. Reminds me of how hard Pierre works but with little payback for the effort.

I'd suggest they take a nap, not work so hard, and claim Dunn the next time a slug/OBP machine is made available. When KC calls and offers Berroa, hang up the phone. Bennett's agent looking for employement even though he can't throw, you give him a minor league deal to see if he can work out his arm problems. Cleveland asks for Carlos Santana, you counter with Lucas Bass May.

BH I totally disagree with your premise. Arizona didn't claim Maddux because they couldn't care less if we got him. Given how they pound him, they probably wanted us to have him. When Maddux bounces back after that first start, their fans will want to know why, just like we want to know why Dunn was not claimed.

245

You can never have too much speed (Joe Morgan voice)

247 The Dodgers called the Royals about Berroa.

226
Lambo will be awful young for the AFL. I'd think he'd head over to the HFL.

215 - that also assumes that the "new criteria" is, indeed, better than the old criteria. In fact, it may not be better. It may be the same or it may be worse.

There is, I sense, a dogmatic approach on both sides of the "debate". It almost seems like neither side is willing or able to admit that the other has a point on anything. I don't think it's much of a secret that I straddle the line between old and new school. It's in part because I see the advantages and disadvantages inherent in both systems.

I also think that this particular issue is clouded by the fact that we're talking about Adam Dunn, who is the White Whale of many DTers. He is also the perfect example of a guy that is evaluated drastically different under the two approaches. Both sides like his home run power (at least in the bang boxes of the NL Central), but one side says he doesn't hit enough (low BA) and strikes out too much; the other side says strike outs don't matter and the walks make up for the low BA. I tend to think that when the two sides have a differing opinion on a player, he's simply an average player. That's what I see Dunn as: an average player with above average home run power. Lots of teams would pass on that player, especially when they consider defense and where to play him.

241 Pierre's contract covers his age 29-33 years (he turned 31 a couple weeks ago), but as a player hugely dependent on speed, his peak years, typically, are a little earlier than most players, so he's probably exiting his peak years too.

that also assumes that the "new criteria" is, indeed, better than the old criteria. In fact, it may not be better. It may be the same or it may be worse.

There is, I sense, a dogmatic approach on both sides of the "debate"

One side is dogmatic: the other side isn't. That's the difference.

The dogmatic side assumes that particular stats are important because Baseball People have always considered them important, without ever actually examining datasets to see if they actually are important. They accept the importance of such stats dogmatically.

The other side does not start out with stats they think are important, but rather evaluates all stats to find out which ones are actually important. Once they've discovered the important stats, they promote their use over the stats that aren't important. That's not dogma: it's empiricism.

Given his trend it looks like he exited his peak years about 4 years ago.

Someday I'd like a Rickey Henderson type player to root for on the Dodgers. Davey Lopes probably came the closest.

So we're in the valley of JP's years.

And both sides have their fantastics.

253 So BA could never be important? It is a stat that measures what percentage a player is able to make a hit over an out or a walk, and in certain situations a single would be an advantage over a walk such as men in scoring position. But BA is one of the first stats that is decried by saber metrics heads.

254 I was trying to be kind, but you are right, this year is the fourth consecutive season of ~.330 OBP.

255
I would love that too. Maybe DeJesus can creep into the 30 SB range. Get Maury Wills on that stat!

255 What, Rickey Henderson himself didn't do anything for you? ~~

246 I guess Kent's back/hips/whatever didn't stiffen up on the Philly-D.C. bus ride as was probably anticipated.

Our line-up today is the right approach, so I hate to be critical, but Nomar, Blake, Berroa and Lowe could be a large black hole unless Nomar and Blake begin to wake up. On the other hand if the point of a batting order is to get those batters who might hit or get on base the most AB's this is a good one. Diregarding hot streaks and slumps getting Kemp, Ethier, Martin, Manny, and Loney the most at bats is absolutely correct. Why does it have to look like genius at this point.

256 The thing is that the difference between a single and a walk is about a 10th of a run and the difference between a walk and an out is about half a run. If two guys have the same on base, the guy with a better batting average is probably more valuable unless he hits into a ton of double plays, but unless the on base is really close, the on base guy is more valuable.

So BA could never be important? It is a stat that measures what percentage a player is able to make a hit over an out or a walk, and in certain situations a single would be an advantage over a walk such as men in scoring position. But BA is one of the first stats that is decried by saber metrics heads.

When one conducts particular statistical analyses designed to determine which factors explain variation in the number of runs teams score, the importance of BA disappears when you consider OBP and SLG.

In other words, the contribution BA makes to scoring runs is accounted for in OBP and SLG.

256 Actually BA is percentage of a hit over an out, with walks rendered N/A. Your BA doesn't change no matter how many or how few times you walk.

262 I see your point.

But going back to the infamous Ichiro vs. Dunn argument, the big knock on Ichiro was that because he looks for to get on base with a quick single, he isn't looking to walk or the extra base hit.

But Dunn's has a high slugging percentage that isn't served by his low BA. It always seemed a bit odd to me that OBP was added with slugging percentage to get OPS. Slugging is only relevant to when the player gets a hit, so why is it added to a players OBP when a significant part of that stat is composed of walks? Especially for a guy like Adam Dunn? Dunn might be better served to hit for a higher average so he can make better use of his high slugging percentage. Of course this assumes that Dunn is able to hit for a higher BA that doesn't severely affect his slugging percentage.

253 , 263 - yeah, not dogmatic at all.

265 OPS works because getting on base and slugging are the two most important things you can do with a bat, and adding them together gives you a very high correlation with runs scored. It's not absolutely perfect, but it's an easy to understand metric (much more than runs created, VORP, linear weights, etc) that's pretty accurate when evaluating a player.

263 - also, interesting use of the word "particular". Saying that when you conduct "particular" analyses, you reach a particular result suggests that when you conduct different analyses you reach different conclusions.

266

That didn't seem like a fair response, especially considering the amount of detail he gave.

Correlation between a stat and runs scored from 2000-2004

Walks: .59
HR: .719
AVG: .843
OBP: .910
SLG: .913
OPS: .955

Link to that: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ops-for-the-masses/

269 - I read 253 to say "they are wrong because they are lazy". It was a complete dismissal of 100+ years of baseball thought without discussing any of the merits. Dogma is defined as "a system of tenets or principles" and dogmatic is "asserting opinions in a doctrinaire or arrogant manner". Seems like 253 was nothing more than a dogmatic response to me.

"I'm right and you're wrong" is not an argument. Nor is "my way is better." Those those positions did make for a great Beatles song.

263 is a bit better, except for the point I raised in 268 .

270 - how can the correlation between a homerun and a run scored be anything less than 1?

273 Your total runs scored doesn't equal total home runs.

Some relevant definitions of "dogma":

1. A religious doctrine that is proclaimed as true without proof

3. A doctrinal notion asserted without regard to evidence or truth; an arbitrary dictum

People who think that BA, SBs, RBIs, W-L, etc. are the important stats to pay attention to have generally made no effort to evaluate (or "prove") their importance.

People who think that OBP, SLG, EQA, etc. are the important stats to pay attention to generally have made extensive efforts to evaluate their importance, or at least have read the results of other people's efforts.

That's a difference that I consider indisputable. Whether the difference matters or not is a different question, but I happen to think it does.

270-- Numbers dont lie.

But thats crazy how Moneyball said OBP was 3x important than SLG, whereas in 2000-2004 SLG had the higher correlation.

NPUT

interesting use of the word "particular". Saying that when you conduct "particular" analyses, you reach a particular result suggests that when you conduct different analyses you reach different conclusions

I substituted "particular" for "multiple regression analysis", because I didn't expect everyone to be familiar with the latter. You'd had to use a pretty poor analytical technique* to produce findings that show BA, RBIs, SBs, etc. are more important that OBP, SLG, etc.

*By pretty poor analytical technique, I mean one that trained researchers and statisticians would generally reject in favor of other techniques.