Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
Not trying to be negative - just trying to ward off any Eve of Destruction vibe for a little longer.
Here's how the schedules compare between the Dodgers and Arizona:
Friday: Arizona (Dan Haren) at Los Angeles (Derek Lowe)
Saturday: Arizona (Brandon Webb) at Los Angeles (Chad Billingsley)
Sunday: Arizona (Randy Johnson) at Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw)
Date | Dodgers | Diamondbacks | Comment |
9/8 |
at San Diego | at San Francisco | Dodgers have the easier opponent but probably the tougher atmosphere to play in. |
9/9 | at San Diego | at San Francisco | |
9/10 | at San Diego | at San Francisco | |
9/11 | Idle | Idle | |
9/12 | at Colorado | vs. Cincinnati | Advantage, Arizona. The Rockies might still be fighting to stay in the race, at home. |
9/13 | at Colorado | vs. Cincinnati | |
9/14 | at Colorado | vs. Cincinnati | |
9/15 | at Pittsburgh | vs. San Francisco | Traditionally an easy series for the Dodgers, this comes at the end of a 10-game road trip, so they'll be hoping Giants pitching gives Arizona trouble. |
9/16 | at Pittsburgh | vs. San Francisco | |
9/17 | at Pittsburgh | vs. San Francisco | |
9/18 | at Pittsburgh | vs. San Francisco | |
9/19 | vs. San Francisco | at Colorado | Advantage, Los Angeles. |
9/20 | vs. San Francisco | at Colorado | |
9/21 | vs. San Francisco | at Colorado | |
9/22 | Idle | at St. Louis | |
9/23 | vs. San Diego | at St. Louis | Ditto. Following a rest day to themselves, the Dodgers have one more big shot to make a move if they haven't already. |
9/24 | vs. San Diego | at St. Louis | |
9/25 | vs. San Diego | at St. Louis | |
9/26 | at San Francisco | vs. Colorado | Dodgers have won big games in San Francisco before, but they'd like to avoid the race coming down to this weekend. |
9/27 | at San Francisco | vs. Colorado | |
9/28 | at San Francisco | vs. Colorado |
The Dodgers could certainly help or hurt themselves a lot this weekend, but there's still lots of baseball to be played - and probably more than a few ups and downs remaining. Even if they're still trailing, if the Dodgers aren't buried by September 14, keep watching ...
0 Great analysis (as usual).
My analysis-
1. They have 10 road games while we have 13 and both of us are better at home.
2. They are 2 better in the loss column.
Advantage D'backs.
We don't have to win 2 of 3 but it sure would be nice.
I'm not sure how this weekend will go, but the Dodgers are going to sweep the Padres, who will be starting some combo of Baek-Leblanc-Estes-Geer in the 3 games. I'm due some karmic payback for the club's 8-21 record in SD with me in attendance.
That's what he gets for eating his cheeseburgers in the shower!
That's pretty bold, DL. Would you settle for buying a Toby Hall jersey and then posting the photo?
We have to assume, with our rose-colored glasses on, that they will win five of the six against the Padres and four of the six against the Giants, and three of the four against the Pirates. That leaves Colorado, where we will lose two of three. 15-6, a very optimistic estimate from here on out, wins the division. But against that schedule, we can do it.
We miss Peavy, Arizona faces Lincecum on Monday.
"Where is number one?"
"That would be telling, number thirteen."
"I am not a number. I am a free man!"
Cursed Bob Timmerman personally and tried to goad him into cursing me back while also calling Sarah Palin the anti-Christ, whatever, and then I called her the anti-Christ again, while noting that, as of now, Derek Lowe hadn't given up any baserunners today, and then saying that I didn't care that I was breaking the rules. I did this while totally drunk and stoned and why is everyone on this board out to get me?
Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$1,000,000 Chad Billingsley
$21,000,000 CC Sabathia
$400,000 Kershaw
$400,000 Elbert
Total: $35,000,000
Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$500,000 Wade
$1,000,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 McDonald
$1,000,000 Hong-Chih Kuo
Total: $7,000,000
Starting Lineup (8)
$1,000,000 Russell Martin
$1,000,000 James Loney
$1,000,000 Matt Kemp
$1,000,000 Andre Ethier
$400,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$500,000 Blake DeWitt
$500,000 Tony Abreu
$25,000,000 Manny
Total: $30,500.000
Bench: 6
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Catcher
$500,000 Outfielder
$500,000 Infielder
Total: $35,600,000
Grand total: $108,100,000
This is the team that lost 8 in a row including 3 to the Nats and now has won 5 in row. This team is totally unpredictable. We could win the division by 4 or we could finish 3rd or anywhere in between.
At least it's fun. If we win we get to bask in our teams success. If we lose we get to watch DL (will it be on you tube?)
Looking over that list, its pretty easy to see why McCourt is depressed. He's paying huge money to worthless PVL's - Schmidt, Jones and Pierre, while most of the key performers are being paid peanuts.
Good perspective check and useful post to keep around, Jon.
I only hope the Dodgers don't go into that series in Pittsburgh the way they did in that Nats' series, the last one on a road trip vs. team you should beat and then roll over and die. Of course, the Nats were pretty hot during that stretch in general.
Martin, Saito, Ethier and Broxton are arbitration eligible and will make more than a million this year. Somewhere between 2-6 million this year.
Beimel isn't taking a paycut after this year. He's a proven LOOGY now and will demand a multi year contract.
If you're cutting Penny you need to pay his buyout.
The team is a bad road team, and I cant see them making up a 2.5 game difference over AZ playing 13 of 19 on the road.
Dodgers need to win at least 2 this series.
Dodgers
SD 6 times- Peavy once
SF 6 times- Cain once
Arizona
SF 7 times- Lincecum twice, Cain once
Cin 3 times- Harang, Cueto, Volquez
StL 4 times- Wainright once.
Krispy Kreme Bacon Cheddar Cheeseburger
http://tinyurl.com/6d4b44
How is San Diego a tougher atmosphere to play in than San Francisco?
2004-2008 Dodger Road Records
in SF: 26-18
in SD: 18-24
I realize that this is your opinion but some people will read your statement and think that the season is over if the Dodgers don't sweep the Padres. You can never assume a sweep on the road against any major league team. Momentum can shift so quickly during this time of year.
28 If the Dodgers lose 2 of 3 this weekend, then its over.
The season would not be even close to over if the Dodgers lose 2 of 3 this weekend to Arizona. And nobody should be calling any of these games "must win" games like they did last week in Phoenix. Arizona is a team that is 9 games below .500 since mid-May. They are just as capable of collapsing down the stretch as anyone else.
Let's enjoy the games this weekend and not panic whenever a play doesn't go the team's way. Barring another key injury or two, I really like the Dodgers chances here.
Russell Martin ~ $6,000,000
James Loney ~ $500,000
Ivan DeJesus ~ $400,000
Chin-Lung Hu ~ $400,000
Blake DeWitt ~ $420,000
Andre Ethier ~ $2,500,000
Andruw Jones - $17,100,000
Matt Kemp ~ $500,000
Chad Billingsley ~ $500,000
Hiroki Kuroda - $10,000,000
Brad Penny - $9,250,000
Clayton Kershaw ~ $420,000
James McDonald ~ $400,000
Juan Pierre - $10,000,000
Delwyn Young ~ $450,000
John Lindsey ~ $400,000
Tony Abreu ~ $400,000
A.J. Ellis ~ $400,000
Takashi Saito ~ $5,000,000
Jonathan Broxton ~ $2,000,000
Hong-Chih Kuo - $500,000
Scott Proctor ~ $1,300,000
Cory Wade ~ $420,000
Ramon Troncoso ~ $420,000
Eric Stults ~ $420,000
Jason Schmidt - $16,000,000
Rafael Furcal - $4,000,000
Nomar Garciaparra - $1,250,000
Esteban Loaiza - $375,000
Total $91,725,000
Cutting Penny saves you 7.25 million and it's reasonable to think we'd ditch Proctor. You can save around 10 million on this with that and if I over estimated arbitration.
Also, the Padres were better than the Giants for all of that time period, except for this year.
Current record: Home: 42-30 Road: 28-40
It was just two years ago when the Dodgers were in a battle with the Phillies and the Padres going into that last weekend in San Francisco, Drew hits a home run in the 7th to bring the Dodgers within 1 and then the Tomato gets the clutch hit to drive in the tying run.
The next day, Maddux pitched 7 great innings and Sammy smiled.
I won't be disappointed if the Dodgers don't sweep in San Diego, and I know its not likely or even probable. I'm just trying to will it to happen.
The next day, Maddux pitched 7 great innings and Sammy smiled
I was sitting next to Mia Hamm, Carolyn Hughes, and Russ Martin Sr. celebrating!
1. The team with the best record in head to head play.
2. The team with the best overall record ignoring interleague play.
3. The team with the best record in the final 81 games of the season, ignoring interleague play.
4. The team with the best record in the final 82 games of the season, extending backward until the tie is broken (since teams in the same division play each other as many as 19 times, this step is guaranteed to break the tie. Interleague games are skipped and ignored in this process.)
All this to avoid a playoff. (It's even more complicated when 3 teams are tied.) But when the (two) tied teams are from a weaker division, like us this year, such that only the no. 1 team gets to the playoffs, they play a one-game playoff to decide it, no matter what the head-to-head record was. (E.g. 1995 NL West, where Mariners beat the Angels in the one-game playoff and went to the ALDS though they were 5-7 vs. Angels during the season.)
1) Given the team's trouble stranding runners, where do the Dodgers rank statistically in RISP conversion? Have they been bad enough long enough to rank among the worst for more than just this year? Which they probably do, at least for '08.
2) What is the average for LOB per game? Seems like the Dodgers would rank really high there (unfortunately).
Ok, so I guess it's 3 questions. Thanks for any help reducing my ignorance, which is a big job.
[/advertisement]
Dodgers
vs. SD (Peavy 1) 3-3
vs. SF (Cain 1) 4-2
vs. Pitt 3-1
vs. Col 1-2
Total- 11-8
Arizona
vs. SF (Lincecum 2, Cain 1) 3-4
vs. Cin (Harang, Cueto, Volquez) 1-2
vs. StL (Wainwright) 2-2
vs. Col. 4-2
Total- 10-10
So the winner of tonight's game will be playing for the divison crown tomorrow.
I think, because Sabathia wants to hit and play on west coast, the Dodgers can get him for 7 years closer to $150,000 than $180,000. I also think for him to get $25,000/yr he will have to settle for a five year contract and if with the Dodgers accept about $21 million in the first year.
I think the Dodgers can trade Pierre if they pay about $2 million a year on his salary.
I think the Dodgers could find a way to trade Kuroda and Saito to Seattle for Putz if the Dodgers sign Sabathia.
http://tinyurl.com/6z4ujh
The time we did see him we had a rain delay if I remember correctly.
Cue rant about Ryan Howard's arbitration win last winter.
As a Dodgers fan (or a Giants fan) would you want it any other way?
Given that the only thing SF has left to play for is to beat the Dodgers, I would posit that the Dodgers have MUCH harder schedule the rest of the way.
If the Dodgers fall out of the race in the next week, all the rest of our games are with non-contenders. Therefore, we can shut down most of the veterans (as well as Kershaw) and hold a kind of pre-Fall league camp, where the management and fans can see a lot more Hu, Dejesus, Young, McDonald, Elbert and so on. For fan interest, we could keep running Manny out there, and some of the younger starters like Kemp and Loney ought to have a chance to reach statistical goals. The point is, this period will give management and ownership (and the media) chance to see how the cheaper, younger players perform. This will help focus our GM, whoever s/he might be, on what we really need from the FA and trade market, and what we don't need. The Andruw Jones debacle would have been avoided if Ned could have foreseen the power production he would get from Ethier, for example. For 2009, all the questions are in the infield, with only first base settled. If it's Ned, he might scratch around for PVLs to play second, third and/or short -- but not if Dejesus, Hu and Dewitt demonstrate that he's better off sticking with them. If they play well, then maybe the Dodgers would take a flyer on Furcal, but otherwise stand pat.
Still, the idea of seeing our current team in the playoffs has some appeal. Streakiness can be fun in the post-season.
Yes. I'd rather the Dodgers be waltzing into September with a 17 game lead like the Angels are.
It's $390k this year, and $400k in 2009-2010.
As for Arizona, here's to a series of good pitching, solid defense, and smart baserunning.
77 I've been using Pilot Precise Rolling Ball pens (Black/Fine) ever since I can remember.
http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/09/jiminy-christmas.html
>>I'm not sure what to make of this.
The tone and content are so over-the-top fawning that I initially thought it was satirical. After all, Simers has been critical of the Dodgers' front office -- and in this same wry manner -- before. So, read and enjoy with this warning: the joke may be on you. Yes, you, not me. I am infallible. Plus, as is always our preference here at FJM, we like to take everything at face value, because then we have more ways to avoid working at our real jobs.
One way or the other, you have to love the headline:
It's a no-brainer, Dodgers' Ned Colletti is baseball's best general manager
...
No. No, he is not.
And furthermore, hypothetically serious-and-not-satirical L.A. Times: you think it's a "no-brainer?!" You not only think that Ned Coletti is baseball's best general manager, you think the fact that Ned Coletti is baseball's best manager is a ((bleep)) no brainer?
(Man, I hope this isn't a parody. Because I am already borderline-hysterical, and we're only at the headline.)<<
What does happen to comments that get deleted? I imagine them going to a place analogous to the Island of Misfit Toys.
This is a very low risk, extremely high reward deal that allows Sabathia to stay at home and work hard towards another monster deal at age 31.
These days, most of them continue to exist only in the recesses of my memory.
We are thinking about going to Korea-town for dinner (BBQ) tonight before the game, any suggestions?
Thanks
Answer: The mood at DT will be VERY ugly.
http://www.parksbbq.com/
Just a reminder for tonight, don't be late.
The question is the heading of this post.
The answer is mine.
His AL MVP chances are hurt significantly. Time to prepare for a ridiculous K-Rod MVP vote.
I think Pedroia will get it.
I can see that.
Actually I can't remember if he said that was who he thought would get it or who he thought should get it.
vr, Xei
Gammons has also suggested Carlos Delgado and Geovany Soto for NL MVP.
vr, Xei
Tim Kurkjian said today its amazing that Delgado has rebounded to the "periphery" of MVP voting.
the walls are decorated with signed and framed photos of Korean television stars and athletes. When South Korean baseball player Chan Ho Park was pitching for the San Diego Padres, he was a regular here.
Pujols .360/.468/.640 WOW.
His career #'s are .334/.425/.622
Wouldn't he look good in Dodger Blue!
We could have a whole thread of:
Pujols is to Berkman as ______ is to _____.
who, during one of his many presidential campaigns, said "I've upped my standards, so up yours."
Carlos Santana also made the second team at Catcher (sorry, Nate). Matt Wieters was the first team catcher.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/dr4A
Looking up Pujols's numbers made me further appreciate how great Frank Thomas was. First 8 seasons:
Thomas: .330/.452/.600, 182 OPS+
Pujols: .334/.425/.622, 170 OPS+
Beware of hurricanes with palindromic names.
The other place I go a lot is shik do rak. It's a little bit south but it's very very good (great kim chi) and not as intense. And pretty reasonable for BBQ. That would be my vote.
Bob decimated Florida in 1991.
Yes, an official scorer in the Southern League was a little too liberal in handing out double errors and the entire state was taken to task by 77 inches of fury.
Or do you know where I can go to figure it out?
Unless you think this is a serious statement:
"No doubt, [Ned] fooled them all. Oldest trick in the book, too, luring your opponents to sleep, which explains why early on he signed Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre -- everyone figuring the Dodgers were finished with such a cast of misfits.
I would say Parks is the best Korean BBQ for quality and price. Soot Bull Jeep is a very good one, but you will come out smelling like charcoal. Chosun Galbee is a more high-end place that may take longer than you want.
One of the things I've been meaning to try is Korean fried chicken. It's really spicy chicken wings mostly, but they sound great. There's a couple places that have opened up in Koreatown that are supposed to be great. One is called Kyochan, the other is Bon Chon.
Sure, trading Carlos Santana for possibly a two month rental (along with Jon Meloan) is not great (though I think its fairly clear that right now, his production has been and would have been better than the other alternatives the Dodgers had at that time).
But I think we tend to forget that other teams have made similar deals this year too.
Casey Blake: Offensively average, defensively inept third baseman that we control for two months.
There's a difference there.
There were 66 predictions, and the cumulative winning percentage predicted was .546 (88.4 wins). The median was 89 wins.
fiddlestick picked .500
MC Safety (79-83) and Bob (74-88) were the only ones predicting below .500.
But then, over reacting is not an unusual actvity here.
By the way, the Dodgers next loss eliminates me, Jacob L, StolenMonkey86, rubdawg, and Gen3Blue, all of whom predicted 92-70.
Billingsley & Kuo are not arb eligible.
McDonald, Wade, Troncoso, Hu & DeWitt will probably get the MLB minimum $400k.
Schmidt gets $15.5M ($12M+bonus)
Pierre gets $10M
Jones gets $17.1M
Ethier, Hemp, Loney & Abreu will get between $450k & $500k.
39 G. Bennett gets $50k in 2009 and Kuroda gets $12.4M.
If Saito can get $5M in 2009 the Dodgers will not offer arb.
But then I am probably the least bothered here by what players do after they leave the Dodgers so don't use me as an example.
Oh, and the plan to have Saito and Furcal play in the minor league playoffs ended when the Inland Empire 66ers were swept out yesterday.
Ethier will be a Super Two in 2009. He has 3 more days service time (2 years, 153 days) than Martin.
14. regfairfield
87-75, winning a one game playoff against Arizona with Pierre coming off the bench and getting a clutch stolen base.
I dont think trading for Haren is anywhere close to Casey Blake. Haren is an elite, in his prime player that has been signed to a reasonable extension.
Blake's a 2month rental.
If anything, compare what the Dbax gave up for 2 month rental of Dunn to that of 2 month rental of Casey Blake.
Surely the Dodgers can put together 12-10. Seems to be their MO.
I was totally wrong on Penny being above average though.
Does the team being in a position where they cannot afford to procure a star player because of lack of funds matter to them?
In the three years Ned & co have been in charge they have squandered between $150M and $200M on contracts for players that have not helped the team win.
That money would have come in handy in 2009.
Manny Ramirez vs. Arizona this season:
18 for 34 4 HR's 7 RBI's 11 runs 4 doubles 4 walks and a stolen base.
.529/.590/1.000/1.590
James Loney:
24 for 60 2 HR's 7 RBI's 7 runs 2 doubles and 5 walks.
.400/.446/.533/.979
Matt Kemp:
21 for 63 3 HR's 9 RBI's 12 runs 3 doubles 1 triple 2 walks and 2 stolen bases.
.333/.348/.556/.904
I was one of those guys. Specifically I said Saito "was sidelined for a week here and there for nagging injuries."
Wow, "a week here and there?"
Daniel Zappala 97 65 0.599
silverwidow 97 65 0.599
KG16 95 67 0.586
Bill Crain 95 67 0.586
ssjames 95 67 0.586
BlueCrew Bruin 94 68 0.580
Eric Enders 94 68 0.580
ibleedbloo 93 69 0.574
KAYVMON 93 69 0.574
Jacob L 92 70 0.568
Eric Stephen 92 70 0.568
StolenMonkey86 92 70 0.568
rubdawg 92 70 0.568
Gen3Blue 92 70 0.568
MollyKnight 91 71 0.562
Inside Baseball 91 71 0.562
68elcamino427 91 71 0.562
Ken Noe 91 71 0.562
MrCourt123 91 71 0.562
trainwreck 91 71 0.562
Bob Hendley 91 71 0.562
CodyS 91 71 0.562
cargill06 90 72 0.556
Sushirabbit 90 72 0.556
preacherroe 90 72 0.556
MidwestBlue 90 72 0.556
Benaiah 90 72 0.556
underdog 89 73 0.549
fanerman 89 73 0.549
Johnson 89 73 0.549
larry slimfast 89 73 0.549
haskell 89 73 0.549
Howard Fox 89 73 0.549
kinbote 89 73 0.549
old dodger fan 88 74 0.543
stevesaxarm 88 74 0.543
Sac Town Dodger Fan 88 74 0.543
invisbleman 88 74 0.543
Hythloday 88 74 0.543
regfairfield 88 75 0.540
Xeifrank 87 75 0.537
Disabled List 87 75 0.537
Humma Kavula 87 75 0.537
gibsonhobbs88 87 75 0.537
TommyLasordid 87 75 0.537
Johnny Nucleo 87 75 0.537
MLKaplan43 87 75 0.537
BALCO Lab Rats 86 76 0.531
KingKopitar 86 76 0.531
3upn3down 86 76 0.531
GMac in the 909 85 77 0.525
Penarol916 85 77 0.525
Doctor 85 77 0.525
Brent Knapp 85 77 0.525
dzzrtRatt 85 77 0.525
El Lay Dave 85 77 0.525
uke 84 78 0.519
Neal Pollack 83 79 0.512
Dexter Fishmore 83 79 0.512
LogikReader 83 79 0.512
philmc78 83 79 0.512
ImprobableImpossible 82 79 0.509
JoeyP 82 80 0.506
fiddlestick 81 81 0.500
MC Safety 79 83 0.488
Bob Timmermann 74 88 0.457
You're underrating Casey Blake. His OPS+ over the last 5 seasons is ~110. As far as defense is concerned, he has been nice and average for us.
Having said that, we should have gotten a whole lot more for two prospects with the value that Santana & Meloan possess than an aging, slighty above-average player, even if he did fill a position of need in a pennant race.
Mean = 88.4
Mode = 91
Median = 89
Plus the D-Backs got Dunn via the waiver process after the trade deadline. Casey Blake would have never cleared waivers to make it to the Dodgers. You just can't compare the two deals in that way.
I was the most pessimistic person! Woo hoo!
Before the UCLA football game, the radio crew was doing random interviews with people to ask fans what record they thought the Bruins would have.
I said "5-7."
This is relying on a defensive metric in a small sample size so it's not the perfect measure, but it shows what bad defense can do to an average hitter.
I consider myself to be slightly optimistic, but I'd have picked the Bruins for 3-9. I was actually very pleased with their first half performance. I was astounded by their second half performance.
All we have to do is finish Orel Hershiser in 1985! I like those odds.
Who would have claimed him?
LaRoche as a Pirate: -9.3 runs offensively, 1.9 runs defensively, -7.4 total
Again, this is a defensive stat in a small sample size so it's unreliable, but if Blake's defensive reputation follows him, he's not much better than an offensively inept LaRoche.
And after playing out the remaining future schedule I have Az 81-78 and LA 81-78 so yes the play-offs do start tonight.
Just curious, what metric(s) are you relying on? Cause his fielding percentage (.989), range factor (2.60), and zone rating (.752) are all within acceptable limits. And frankly, I think he's looked better than these numbers would suggest.
So I'm wondering where are you getting 'inept' from?
2008 Runs Created (via Hardbal Times):
Quentin 102 (making league minimum)
Haren 97 (4M, plus 50M+ over the next 4 years)
If the D-Backs just hold on to Quentin and don't trade him for Chris Carter, who they then included in the Haren trade, they're better off right there.
Now take into account they also lost 6 years of Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, and Aaron Cunningham.
Obivously they got a much better return than the Casey Blake trade, but even if Carlos Santana becomes as good as Carlos Quentin, the D-Backs still gave up WAY more. You also have to consider that the D0Backs have considerably less money to spend than we do, so young (cheap) players are even more valuable to them. In fact, I would say that there is no way that the Dan Haren trade (including the Quentin deal) is not a huge loss to the D-Backs in the long run.
The Dodgers definitely make bad moves, but lets remember other teams often do too. Even with the Manny and Blake deals, we should still be able to compete for years to come. :-)
Thanks Eric. You did a great job when you put those picks together. It was a lot of fun.
My belief was that Torre would teach the Dodgers to "win".
Ethier has taken big strides improving at the plate (especially since the arrival of Manny). Ethier has matured and looks to be more composed and less prone to emotional outbursts then he was at the start of the season.
Kemp has improved his game in a like fashion. At the start of the season Bison was rumored as "trade bait". Now he is recognized for what he is - a budding star.
Martin is a two time All-Star catcher and it appears that Torre is letting Martin have is own head allowing Martin to discover for himself what being a Robot Made of Nails is all about. All the while Martin continues to learn the finer points of the apects of beings a top receiver and team leader. Lately Martin appears to be less the young player and more the wise vetran.
Loney's offense is good and consistent if not spectacular going oppo as Torre desires.
Billingsley is turning into the staff ace as Jon had predicted.
If Kershaw's last outing is to be his new norm the kid is a fast learner.
Broxton succesful in 12 of 14 is the Closer.
LaRoche: 110
Dewitt: 114
Blake: 112 (much higher than in Cleveland, but he's been making the plays in LA according to this)
Rate2 isn't my favorite stat, but it's serviceable when comparing 3 players at the same position behind the same pitching staff, isn't it?
I don't think there were any mistakes per se. I thought it was on me :)
181 - wow, I was really high on this team at the beginning of the year. I need to try and remember why I was so high on them, I expected a three or four team race in the NL West, must have figured they were going to beat up on everyone else in the league.
The other two have zero merit as defensive stats
Hubris much?
That statement was more indefensible than defensive.
Fielding percentage doesn't work because errors are a flawed measurement. You get punished for having range. Not committing errors is part of defense, but it's not the most important part. It's like only using stolen bases to evaluate hitters.
Range factor is better, but the fact that it doesn't account for opportunity and makes no adjustments based on anything makes it hard to trust. For example, any infielder on a fly ball heavy staff isn't going to look good on range factor.
This is what happens when you work through lunch. Snack break time!
But Matt Kemp who batted leadoff most of the time had a .779 OPS and Russell Martin never found a good spot with a .624 OPS.
220 Will all due respect, Mr. Site-Owner, Sir, he said that Fielding Percentage and Range Factor have zero merit. Not questionable merit, but zero merit. In my book, that's a pretty darn dismissive statement to make and one that is hard to defend logically (thus my play on his words).
See comment #1 of "Vin Diagrammed"
Arizona:
Drew, SS
Eckstein, 2B
Jackson, LF
Dunn, RF
Tracy, 1B
Reynolds, 3B
Young, CF
Snyder, C
Haren, P
Dodgers:
Martin, C
Ethier, RF
Ramirez, LF
Blake, 3B
Loney, 1B
Kemp, CF
DeWitt, 2B
Berroa, SS
Lowe, P
So maybe fielding percentage stinks in comparison to Clay Davenport's numbers, or whatever. That's true enough. Where reg erred is in saying it has zero value. Sean's correct; that statement is indefensible. If he'd simply said it has little value compared to other metrics, then everything would be hunky-dory.
It's like saying wins has zero value as a stat. Or RBI. The fact that they don't tell us as much as other stats do, doesn't mean they have zero value. If you have two players and the only thing you know about them is that one guy has 10 wins and the other one has 15, you'd pick the guy with 15 wins every time, and most of the time it would be a correct choice.
According to my calculations, fielding percentage has a 57.25 above-zero merit factor.
Martin: .227/.261/.227/.488 (6 games)
Kent: .380/.410/.481/.891 (19 games)
Ethier: .393/.469/.786/1.255 (7 games)
Nomar: 0 for 4 (1 game)
And if you had told me back in March that the 2008 Dodgers would also acquire Manny Ramirez mid-season, I might even have gone as high as 97 wins.
My counter would be that it's never a case where you don't have something superior to look at than wins, or fielding percentage, or RBI. It's a phony scenario. So given that, what's the value?
But it's not worth arguing about, since I'm usually the one interpreting things literally.
To get a win or an RBI you have to do something that's good for your team in the first place. What you have to do to get those has to do with winning games. What you have to do to avoid errors is the opposite of good defense.
It might be if "error" were objectively defined. But the assignment of an error is subjecting, especially on sharply-hit ground balls. So you can't trust the numerator. regfairfield already mentioned the problem with the denominator - that it's inversely correlated with quality.
RF is flawed without serious adjustments for pitching staff, etc. FP is worthless. It's as bad as counting W-L record as a measure of pitching quality.
Bad measures are not necessarily better than nothing.
That said, Blake has looked OK to me. Not great, but good hands and an accurate arm. He tends to play in (it seems) to reduce the angles and hide his lack of range. As long as he's quick enough or lucky enough to have balls hit right at him, he's been doing all right.
Manny Ramirez
I like to go out on a ledge.
"My problem with errors is that it punishes you for doing something that's inherently good, getting to the ball, instead of not getting to the ball in the first place."
I think that statement is inaccurate, I do not believe any player is assessed an error for getting to a ball, the error would general occur when that player throws the ball away allowing the runner to advance to a base that he otherwise wouldn't have gotten to. And that is a bad thing regardless of your desire to reward said player for his outstanding range.
Yeah, but how is an "error" any more subjective than a "zone"?
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