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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

What Happens if the Dodgers Don't Win This Series?
2008-09-05 08:37
by Jon Weisman

Not trying to be negative - just trying to ward off any Eve of Destruction vibe for a little longer.

Here's how the schedules compare between the Dodgers and Arizona:

Friday: Arizona (Dan Haren) at Los Angeles (Derek Lowe)
Saturday: Arizona (Brandon Webb) at Los Angeles (Chad Billingsley)
Sunday: Arizona (Randy Johnson) at Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw)

NL West Stretch Run
Date Dodgers Diamondbacks Comment


at San Diego at San Francisco Dodgers have the easier opponent but probably the tougher atmosphere to play in.
9/9 at San Diego at San Francisco  
9/10 at San Diego at San Francisco  
9/11 Idle Idle  
9/12 at Colorado vs. Cincinnati Advantage, Arizona. The Rockies might still be fighting to stay in the race, at home.
9/13 at Colorado vs. Cincinnati  
9/14 at Colorado vs. Cincinnati  
9/15 at Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco Traditionally an easy series for the Dodgers, this comes at the end of a 10-game road trip, so they'll be hoping Giants pitching gives Arizona trouble.
9/16 at Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco  
9/17 at Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco  
9/18 at Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco  
9/19 vs. San Francisco at Colorado Advantage, Los Angeles.
9/20 vs. San Francisco at Colorado  
9/21 vs. San Francisco at Colorado  
9/22 Idle at St. Louis  
9/23 vs. San Diego at St. Louis Ditto. Following a rest day to themselves, the Dodgers have one more big shot to make a move if they haven't already.
9/24 vs. San Diego at St. Louis  
9/25 vs. San Diego at St. Louis  
9/26 at San Francisco vs. Colorado Dodgers have won big games in San Francisco before, but they'd like to avoid the race coming down to this weekend.
9/27 at San Francisco vs. Colorado  
9/28 at San Francisco vs. Colorado  

The Dodgers could certainly help or hurt themselves a lot this weekend, but there's still lots of baseball to be played - and probably more than a few ups and downs remaining. Even if they're still trailing, if the Dodgers aren't buried by September 14, keep watching ...

Comments (257)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-09-05 08:41:44
2.   Daniel Zappala
I'm hoping for the best, but since the team is at .500, I'm fully expecting a day (or two) up followed by a day (or two) down.
2008-09-05 08:48:03
3.   Disabled List
If the Dodgers don't win this series, I will tear off my clothes in the middle of the street, beat myself across the chest and set my hair on fire while speaking in tongues.
2008-09-05 08:50:19
4.   old dodger fan
I don't think I've ever seen comment #1 deleted. Bad start to the day (and I missed it).

0 Great analysis (as usual).

My analysis-
1. They have 10 road games while we have 13 and both of us are better at home.
2. They are 2 better in the loss column.

Advantage D'backs.

We don't have to win 2 of 3 but it sure would be nice.

2008-09-05 08:51:32
5.   Eric Stephen
The only time Lowe & Haren have faced off was April 23, a game won 8-3 by the Dodgers at home.

I'm not sure how this weekend will go, but the Dodgers are going to sweep the Padres, who will be starting some combo of Baek-Leblanc-Estes-Geer in the 3 games. I'm due some karmic payback for the club's 8-21 record in SD with me in attendance.

2008-09-05 08:52:00
6.   MC Safety
Here's to Stephen Drew getting a bad cheeseburger somewhere today. A slip and fall in the shower wouldn't be too bad either.
2008-09-05 08:54:08
7.   Eric Stephen
That's what he gets for eating his cheeseburgers in the shower!
2008-09-05 08:59:54
8.   ibleedbloo
Homer: Mmmmm... Shower Cheeseburgers...
2008-09-05 09:00:57
9.   old dodger fan
5 the Dodgers are going to sweep the Padres That's what I said before we played the Nat's.
2008-09-05 09:02:24
10.   oshea2002
If we can get to the 19th down 1, we'll probably win. Colorado is almost certain to think they are alive (unless they completely tank) due to the fact they'll have 6 left head to head with Arizona, and with what happened last year.
2008-09-05 09:12:36
11.   cargill06
My off-shore bookie tells me LA is -130 and Arizona is +110 for this series
2008-09-05 09:15:14
12.   LogikReader

That's pretty bold, DL. Would you settle for buying a Toby Hall jersey and then posting the photo?

2008-09-05 09:15:38
13.   LogikReader
What happened to comment 1?
2008-09-05 09:20:05
14.   Neal Pollack
The Dodgers win two of three this weekend.
We have to assume, with our rose-colored glasses on, that they will win five of the six against the Padres and four of the six against the Giants, and three of the four against the Pirates. That leaves Colorado, where we will lose two of three. 15-6, a very optimistic estimate from here on out, wins the division. But against that schedule, we can do it.
2008-09-05 09:20:36
15.   cargill06
0 Next series, advantage LA.

We miss Peavy, Arizona faces Lincecum on Monday.

2008-09-05 09:22:45
16.   Bob Timmermann
Comment 1? Comment 1 don't come around here no more.
2008-09-05 09:26:27
17.   Dane Bramage
15 So, if my count is correct, if it all comes down to the last day of the season to decide it - we could be facing Lincecum?
2008-09-05 09:28:27
18.   Daniel Zappala
13 "I am the new number two. You are number thirteen."

"Where is number one?"

"That would be telling, number thirteen."

"I am not a number. I am a free man!"

2008-09-05 09:28:32
19.   Bumsrap
I can remember the Dodgers beating the Big Red Machine in a critical series only to go flat during the next 10 games while the Reds more than made up for losing to the Dodgers. The Dodgers need to win and then take care of business and not relax.
2008-09-05 09:29:09
20.   Neal Pollack
I wrote comment one. In it, I:

Cursed Bob Timmerman personally and tried to goad him into cursing me back while also calling Sarah Palin the anti-Christ, whatever, and then I called her the anti-Christ again, while noting that, as of now, Derek Lowe hadn't given up any baserunners today, and then saying that I didn't care that I was breaking the rules. I did this while totally drunk and stoned and why is everyone on this board out to get me?

2008-09-05 09:29:44
21.   Bumsrap
The $$ are wild estimates but 2009 could maybe possibly look like this:

Starting Pitchers (5)
$12,300,000 Hiroki Kuroda
$1,000,000 Chad Billingsley
$21,000,000 CC Sabathia
$400,000 Kershaw
$400,000 Elbert

Total: $35,000,000

Bullpen (6)
$2,000,000 Takashi Saito
$1,925,000 Joe Beimel
$500,000 Wade
$1,000,000 Jonathan Broxton
$500,000 McDonald
$1,000,000 Hong-Chih Kuo

Total: $7,000,000

Starting Lineup (8)
$1,000,000 Russell Martin
$1,000,000 James Loney
$1,000,000 Matt Kemp
$1,000,000 Andre Ethier
$400,000 Chin-Lung Hu
$500,000 Blake DeWitt
$500,000 Tony Abreu
$25,000,000 Manny

Total: $30,500.000

Bench: 6
$12,000,000 Jason Schmidt
$14,100,000 Andruw Jones
$8,000,000 Juan Pierre
$500,000 Catcher
$500,000 Outfielder
$500,000 Infielder

Total: $35,600,000

Grand total: $108,100,000

2008-09-05 09:31:02
22.   Dane Bramage
18 Stop that, or Bob will send a "Rover" after you!
2008-09-05 09:31:10
23.   old dodger fan

This is the team that lost 8 in a row including 3 to the Nats and now has won 5 in row. This team is totally unpredictable. We could win the division by 4 or we could finish 3rd or anywhere in between.
At least it's fun. If we win we get to bask in our teams success. If we lose we get to watch DL (will it be on you tube?)

2008-09-05 09:31:25
24.   Reddog
If the Dodgers win 2 out of 3 this weekend, they'll finish 9-9 vs Arizona this season. If the teams end up tied at the end of the season, do they play a one-game playoff to see who wins the West?
2008-09-05 09:36:11
25.   Reddog
Looking over that list, its pretty easy to see why McCourt is depressed. He's paying huge money to worthless PVL's - Schmidt, Jones and Pierre, while most of the key performers are being paid peanuts.
2008-09-05 09:36:49
26.   underdog
24 I believe so, yep.

Good perspective check and useful post to keep around, Jon.

I only hope the Dodgers don't go into that series in Pittsburgh the way they did in that Nats' series, the last one on a road trip vs. team you should beat and then roll over and die. Of course, the Nats were pretty hot during that stretch in general.

2008-09-05 09:36:52
27.   regfairfield
21 Couple things:

Martin, Saito, Ethier and Broxton are arbitration eligible and will make more than a million this year. Somewhere between 2-6 million this year.

Beimel isn't taking a paycut after this year. He's a proven LOOGY now and will demand a multi year contract.

If you're cutting Penny you need to pay his buyout.

2008-09-05 09:39:25
28.   JoeyP
If the Dodgers lose 2 of 3 this weekend, then its over.

The team is a bad road team, and I cant see them making up a 2.5 game difference over AZ playing 13 of 19 on the road.

Dodgers need to win at least 2 this series.

2008-09-05 09:42:59
29.   cargill06
0 Looking deeper , if these teams all keep their current rotation.

SD 6 times- Peavy once
SF 6 times- Cain once
SF 7 times- Lincecum twice, Cain once
Cin 3 times- Harang, Cueto, Volquez
StL 4 times- Wainright once.

2008-09-05 09:44:39
30.   JoeyP
Its crazy how many times the Dodgers have missed Lincecum.
2008-09-05 09:46:12
31.   Gagne55
20 Hey at least you didn't violate rules 1 or 4.
2008-09-05 09:47:42
32.   GoBears
28 It ain't over 'til JoeyP says it's over!
2008-09-05 09:48:10
33.   dianagramr

Krispy Kreme Bacon Cheddar Cheeseburger

2008-09-05 09:49:07
34.   Gagne55
How is San Diego a tougher atmosphere to play in than San Francisco?
2008-09-05 09:53:23
35.   Eric Stephen
How is San Diego a tougher atmosphere to play in than San Francisco?

2004-2008 Dodger Road Records
in SF: 26-18
in SD: 18-24

2008-09-05 09:56:03
36.   Jon Weisman
34 - Because San Diego hates the Dodgers more than San Francisco hates the Diamondbacks.
2008-09-05 09:58:40
37.   GoBears
36. I daresay it might be the case that SD hates the Dodgers more than SF hates the Dodgers these days. Giants fans are more blase than they used to be (which is fine by me).
2008-09-05 09:59:28
38.   Gilberto Reyes
5 I'm not sure how this weekend will go, but the Dodgers are going to sweep the Padres, who will be starting some combo of Baek-Leblanc-Estes-Geer in the 3 games.

I realize that this is your opinion but some people will read your statement and think that the season is over if the Dodgers don't sweep the Padres. You can never assume a sweep on the road against any major league team. Momentum can shift so quickly during this time of year.

28 If the Dodgers lose 2 of 3 this weekend, then its over.

The season would not be even close to over if the Dodgers lose 2 of 3 this weekend to Arizona. And nobody should be calling any of these games "must win" games like they did last week in Phoenix. Arizona is a team that is 9 games below .500 since mid-May. They are just as capable of collapsing down the stretch as anyone else.

Let's enjoy the games this weekend and not panic whenever a play doesn't go the team's way. Barring another key injury or two, I really like the Dodgers chances here.

2008-09-05 10:00:58
39.   regfairfield
21 Here's the numbers I did a couple weeks ago assuming we don't do anything this off season.

Russell Martin ~ $6,000,000
James Loney ~ $500,000
Ivan DeJesus ~ $400,000
Chin-Lung Hu ~ $400,000
Blake DeWitt ~ $420,000
Andre Ethier ~ $2,500,000
Andruw Jones - $17,100,000
Matt Kemp ~ $500,000

Chad Billingsley ~ $500,000
Hiroki Kuroda - $10,000,000
Brad Penny - $9,250,000
Clayton Kershaw ~ $420,000
James McDonald ~ $400,000

Juan Pierre - $10,000,000
Delwyn Young ~ $450,000
John Lindsey ~ $400,000
Tony Abreu ~ $400,000
A.J. Ellis ~ $400,000

Takashi Saito ~ $5,000,000
Jonathan Broxton ~ $2,000,000
Hong-Chih Kuo - $500,000
Scott Proctor ~ $1,300,000
Cory Wade ~ $420,000
Ramon Troncoso ~ $420,000
Eric Stults ~ $420,000

Jason Schmidt - $16,000,000
Rafael Furcal - $4,000,000
Nomar Garciaparra - $1,250,000
Esteban Loaiza - $375,000

Total $91,725,000

Cutting Penny saves you 7.25 million and it's reasonable to think we'd ditch Proctor. You can save around 10 million on this with that and if I over estimated arbitration.

2008-09-05 10:01:44
40.   Bob Timmermann
Also, the Padres were better than the Giants for all of that time period, except for this year.
2008-09-05 10:02:07
41.   twerp
This may have been noted, but the Dodgers will have to become more road warriors and less roadkill to make the playoffs, period==

Current record: Home: 42-30  Road: 28-40

2008-09-05 10:02:32
42.   Neal Pollack
Going to the game tonight. Oooooooh, boy, is this weekend going to be fun! If we win.
2008-09-05 10:06:42
43.   Lexinthedena
Sabathia is going to get a 7 year 180-200 million dollar contract from a team like the Rangers (Milton Bradley is C.C's Jack Haley), or the Yanks/Mets. Dodgers will bring back Manny, and either sign a pitcher like Loshe, or go with Penny.
2008-09-05 10:07:41
44.   bhsportsguy
The Dodgers have played well at AT&T.

It was just two years ago when the Dodgers were in a battle with the Phillies and the Padres going into that last weekend in San Francisco, Drew hits a home run in the 7th to bring the Dodgers within 1 and then the Tomato gets the clutch hit to drive in the tying run.

The next day, Maddux pitched 7 great innings and Sammy smiled.

2008-09-05 10:07:52
45.   Eric Stephen
I won't be disappointed if the Dodgers don't sweep in San Diego, and I know its not likely or even probable. I'm just trying to will it to happen.
2008-09-05 10:14:31
46.   Eric Stephen
The next day, Maddux pitched 7 great innings and Sammy smiled

I was sitting next to Mia Hamm, Carolyn Hughes, and Russ Martin Sr. celebrating!

2008-09-05 10:20:21
47.   delias man
46 That's Big Russ to you. I sat next to him at Coors a few days earlier. Very nice man. He received a call on his cell saying Pujols just hit a bomb to beat SD and was so excited.
2008-09-05 10:21:43
48.   bigcpa
39 I would take out Saito, insert Blake for $9M and Manny for $20M. I figure they spend the Penny money on either him or a FA. That's $115M for 2009 and around $85M for 2010.
2008-09-05 10:22:34
49.   berkowit28
24 The Dodgers would play a one-game playoff if they end up tied at the top with D'backs, even if they are not tied against each other 9-9 in season games. It's only when the teams are in the strongest division, such that the loser would become the NL wild card and make the divisional series anyway, as in 2006 Dodgers-Padres, that they skip the one-game playoff and give the division and home advantage (playing the worse team of the other two divisions) on the basis of head-to-head records.

1. The team with the best record in head to head play.
2. The team with the best overall record ignoring interleague play.
3. The team with the best record in the final 81 games of the season, ignoring interleague play.
4. The team with the best record in the final 82 games of the season, extending backward until the tie is broken (since teams in the same division play each other as many as 19 times, this step is guaranteed to break the tie. Interleague games are skipped and ignored in this process.)

All this to avoid a playoff. (It's even more complicated when 3 teams are tied.) But when the (two) tied teams are from a weaker division, like us this year, such that only the no. 1 team gets to the playoffs, they play a one-game playoff to decide it, no matter what the head-to-head record was. (E.g. 1995 NL West, where Mariners beat the Angels in the one-game playoff and went to the ALDS though they were 5-7 vs. Angels during the season.)

2008-09-05 10:23:11
50.   underdog
Except that yours truly will be going to a game in SF that final weekend, and could probably share the blame if they lose. Giants fans may not be quite as passionate as they were at the 'stick, but they're still pretty passionate about hating the Dodgers/beating LA, believe me. If they have a chance to knock the Dodgers out of contention, the fans will be there and rooting hard for it. Which may have nothing to do with how the Giants themselves play it, but if we have to face Lincecum there with playoffs on the line, I don't know if I want to be there. My dad will disagree with me since he's going too, but I'd rather watch the Dodgers B squad that weekend because they've already made the playoffs than the alternative.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2008-09-05 10:25:02
51.   twerp
Two questions. If they've been covered, I missed it, which wouldn't be unusual===

1) Given the team's trouble stranding runners, where do the Dodgers rank statistically in RISP conversion? Have they been bad enough long enough to rank among the worst for more than just this year? Which they probably do, at least for '08.

2) What is the average for LOB per game? Seems like the Dodgers would rank really high there (unfortunately).

Ok, so I guess it's 3 questions. Thanks for any help reducing my ignorance, which is a big job.

2008-09-05 10:25:25
52.   berkowit28
49 1995 example was AL West, of course.
2008-09-05 10:26:11
53.   underdog
By the way! There is still room in my scriptwriting workshop so if you know anyone in the SF Bay Area who would like to get that script (or script idea) out of mothballs, I can squeeze them in and give a DT discount (off the already cheap price). It's at Fort Mason in SF, starts tomorrow, meets every other week. Should be really fun. Tell your friends. Can email me at underdog8 at gmail dot com, or my blog at


2008-09-05 10:27:12
54.   cargill06
Ok, my very un-scientific and probably very wrong calculations look like this

vs. SD (Peavy 1) 3-3
vs. SF (Cain 1) 4-2
vs. Pitt 3-1
vs. Col 1-2
Total- 11-8

vs. SF (Lincecum 2, Cain 1) 3-4
vs. Cin (Harang, Cueto, Volquez) 1-2
vs. StL (Wainwright) 2-2
vs. Col. 4-2
Total- 10-10

So the winner of tonight's game will be playing for the divison crown tomorrow.

2008-09-05 10:29:49
55.   Bumsrap
I am swimming upstream in this thread because I don't want to get my head into the next three games.

I think, because Sabathia wants to hit and play on west coast, the Dodgers can get him for 7 years closer to $150,000 than $180,000. I also think for him to get $25,000/yr he will have to settle for a five year contract and if with the Dodgers accept about $21 million in the first year.

I think the Dodgers can trade Pierre if they pay about $2 million a year on his salary.

I think the Dodgers could find a way to trade Kuroda and Saito to Seattle for Putz if the Dodgers sign Sabathia.

2008-09-05 10:31:21
56.   Bumsrap
Add three zeros where needed in 55.
2008-09-05 10:31:56
57.   regfairfield
Johan got 23 million a year and he never hit the open market. It's reasonable to think that Sabathia can start the bidding at 6/150 and go from there.
2008-09-05 10:32:19
58.   Bumsrap
2008-09-05 10:32:59
59.   Disabled List
54 Funny thing is, it wouldn't surprise me at all if that prediction came out dead accurate. Except that the Dodgers won't win 3 out of 4 in Pittsburgh, which is already starting to smell like the Washington series all over again. I'm hoping for a split.
2008-09-05 10:33:52
60.   underdog
51 The Dodgers rank in the lower third of the league in RISP. But there are 7 teams worse than them, fwiw. Their slugging pct is last with RISP but their OPB is not bad at all. Weird. AND with RISP and two outs, their numbers are much better.

2008-09-05 10:34:23
61.   Bluebleeder87

The time we did see him we had a rain delay if I remember correctly.

2008-09-05 10:36:36
62.   Tripon
Russell Martin making $6 million this year? Isn't that a bit on the higher end?
2008-09-05 10:37:04
63.   fanerman
61 That was Bills' first game of the season right?
2008-09-05 10:38:24
64.   Marty
33 Those things should be chicken-fried.
2008-09-05 10:41:12
65.   Eric Stephen
Cue rant about Ryan Howard's arbitration win last winter.
2008-09-05 10:42:19
66.   regfairfield
62 Next year. Maybe I'm over reacting to Ryan Howard's arbitration numbers but if he got 10 million, there's no reason Russ shouldn't get five or six.
2008-09-05 10:42:42
67.   Kuo-fax
53 - Nice blog, underdog. Looks like a great workshop. I am a screenwriter in the bay area, but I wont be around this weekend. I'll bookmark the blog and keep an eye out for the next one you do.
2008-09-05 10:44:04
68.   underdog
67 Thanks! Let me know. You could also squeeze in starting at the 2nd session (I could catch you up on what you missed) if you want to start late. It's every other Saturday starting tomorrow, for 5 meetings. DT discount would apply. :-)
2008-09-05 10:44:45
69.   underdog
And it's all women in the workshop so far! What could be better than that?
2008-09-05 10:48:47
70.   Harold M Johnson
It's all coming down to how we do against the Giants.

As a Dodgers fan (or a Giants fan) would you want it any other way?

Given that the only thing SF has left to play for is to beat the Dodgers, I would posit that the Dodgers have MUCH harder schedule the rest of the way.

2008-09-05 10:52:47
71.   dzzrtRatt
While I'd love it if they can take 2/3 from AZ and then sweep in SD, my version of acceptance is:

If the Dodgers fall out of the race in the next week, all the rest of our games are with non-contenders. Therefore, we can shut down most of the veterans (as well as Kershaw) and hold a kind of pre-Fall league camp, where the management and fans can see a lot more Hu, Dejesus, Young, McDonald, Elbert and so on. For fan interest, we could keep running Manny out there, and some of the younger starters like Kemp and Loney ought to have a chance to reach statistical goals. The point is, this period will give management and ownership (and the media) chance to see how the cheaper, younger players perform. This will help focus our GM, whoever s/he might be, on what we really need from the FA and trade market, and what we don't need. The Andruw Jones debacle would have been avoided if Ned could have foreseen the power production he would get from Ethier, for example. For 2009, all the questions are in the infield, with only first base settled. If it's Ned, he might scratch around for PVLs to play second, third and/or short -- but not if Dejesus, Hu and Dewitt demonstrate that he's better off sticking with them. If they play well, then maybe the Dodgers would take a flyer on Furcal, but otherwise stand pat.

Still, the idea of seeing our current team in the playoffs has some appeal. Streakiness can be fun in the post-season.

2008-09-05 10:56:19
72.   dzzrtRatt
55 Seeing those numbers that way made me think it was 1977 again. Wow do you think we can really get Sabathia for $180,000??? And does it still cost $3 to sit in the bleachers?
2008-09-05 11:02:23
73.   Gagne55
"As a Dodgers fan (or a Giants fan) would you want it any other way?"

Yes. I'd rather the Dodgers be waltzing into September with a 17 game lead like the Angels are.

2008-09-05 11:05:34
74.   Gagne55
72 The CBA won't allow for players to get less than ~$380,000.
2008-09-05 11:07:36
75.   Gagne55
56 $180,000 + 0 + 0 + 0 = $180,000
2008-09-05 11:08:26
76.   Eric Stephen
It's $390k this year, and $400k in 2009-2010.
2008-09-05 11:09:15
77.   underdog
I miss Pen Thoughts.
2008-09-05 11:20:50
78.   D4P
I know what happened to comment 1...
2008-09-05 11:21:46
79.   kinbote
While I have definitely been a pessimist this season, I do believe that IF we get to the playoffs, anything's possible. The Cubs are a great team, but I'd consider us highly capable of winning a five-game set.

As for Arizona, here's to a series of good pitching, solid defense, and smart baserunning.

77 I've been using Pilot Precise Rolling Ball pens (Black/Fine) ever since I can remember.

2008-09-05 11:23:49
80.   underdog
78 Was it a reference to the latest FJM piece? I didn't see any mention of it here otherwise, apologies if I just missed it.

>>I'm not sure what to make of this.

The tone and content are so over-the-top fawning that I initially thought it was satirical. After all, Simers has been critical of the Dodgers' front office -- and in this same wry manner -- before. So, read and enjoy with this warning: the joke may be on you. Yes, you, not me. I am infallible. Plus, as is always our preference here at FJM, we like to take everything at face value, because then we have more ways to avoid working at our real jobs.

One way or the other, you have to love the headline:

It's a no-brainer, Dodgers' Ned Colletti is baseball's best general manager


No. No, he is not.

And furthermore, hypothetically serious-and-not-satirical L.A. Times: you think it's a "no-brainer?!" You not only think that Ned Coletti is baseball's best general manager, you think the fact that Ned Coletti is baseball's best manager is a ((bleep)) no brainer?

(Man, I hope this isn't a parody. Because I am already borderline-hysterical, and we're only at the headline.)<<

2008-09-05 11:27:06
81.   Gagne55
78 Tell us then.
2008-09-05 11:29:43
82.   cargill06
78 Andruw Jones ate it?
2008-09-05 11:32:39
83.   Ghost of Carlos Perez
What does happen to comments that get deleted? I imagine them going to a place analogous to the Island of Misfit Toys.
2008-09-05 11:33:02
84.   silverwidow
I was wondering if we will offer CC a "Ned Special" - perhaps 3 yrs/$80 million.

This is a very low risk, extremely high reward deal that allows Sabathia to stay at home and work hard towards another monster deal at age 31.

2008-09-05 11:35:46
85.   D4P
What does happen to comments that get deleted?

These days, most of them continue to exist only in the recesses of my memory.

2008-09-05 11:41:13
86.   old dodger fan
83 They go to the "bit" box.
2008-09-05 11:47:59
87.   Gagne55
83 They simply cease to exist. Although the bits on the server may be used for other things.
2008-09-05 11:51:01
88.   LAT
Marty or Anyone else with a suggestion,

We are thinking about going to Korea-town for dinner (BBQ) tonight before the game, any suggestions?


2008-09-05 11:51:18
89.   bhsportsguy
80 It's Simers. You can't believe anything he says aside from his stories about the UCLA Medical Center.
2008-09-05 11:51:26
90.   old dodger fan
Question: What Happens if the Dodgers Don't Win This Series?
Answer: The mood at DT will be VERY ugly.
2008-09-05 11:52:27
91.   Gagne55
Of course this gets into the philosophical question of what makes a post a post. Is a post merely a string of bits that causes out computers to produce something we deem legible? Is there something more to it?
2008-09-05 11:52:28
92.   kinbote
87 I thought they dried up like a raisin in the sun?
2008-09-05 11:53:42
93.   cargill06
90 Ha, where was that from?
2008-09-05 11:55:50
94.   bhsportsguy
88 This place is pretty good.

2008-09-05 11:57:41
95.   Gagne55
94 Chan Ho Park's BBQ?
2008-09-05 11:57:54
96.   bhsportsguy
88 Due to Steve Phillips and the rest of the ESPN crew, game time moved up to 7:08 p.m. instead of 7:40 p.m.

Just a reminder for tonight, don't be late.

2008-09-05 11:57:56
97.   old dodger fan
The question is the heading of this post.
The answer is mine.
2008-09-05 11:58:25
98.   bhsportsguy
95 Nope, it's a real place.
2008-09-05 11:58:26
99.   kinbote
Carlos Quentin could miss the rest of the season:
2008-09-05 12:02:04
100.   underdog
89 True. Read the comment at the end of that piece, as the FJM realized it was probably facetious. But as he points out, so poorly written that it's not really funny, and quite convoluted. It makes Colletti look good actually, and Simers just look like a poor writer. But I think all this was pointed out here already. Just funny to see it dawn on the FJM guy.
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2008-09-05 12:04:42
101.   old dodger fan
99 Sure glad he's not a D'back.
2008-09-05 12:05:09
102.   Eric Stephen
His AL MVP chances are hurt significantly. Time to prepare for a ridiculous K-Rod MVP vote.
2008-09-05 12:07:51
103.   trainwreck
I think Pedroia will get it.
2008-09-05 12:10:14
104.   Bumsrap
75 Okay, I can work with that--instead, move the decimal 3 spots east and pretend the empty space has zeroes.
2008-09-05 12:12:19
105.   Eric Stephen
I can see that.
2008-09-05 12:13:19
106.   old dodger fan
103 That's what Peter Gammons said this morning. He also said he thought Pujols would get the NL award.

Actually I can't remember if he said that was who he thought would get it or who he thought should get it.

2008-09-05 12:13:19
107.   Xeifrank
11. -130 +110? That's a lot of juice. I think I'd find a new bookie. :)
vr, Xei
2008-09-05 12:16:18
108.   LAT
Thanks BH, I'll check it out. You going to the game tonight or tomorrow? I will be in Loge seats tonight and Sinatra seats tomorrow.
2008-09-05 12:18:11
109.   LAT
Xei, any suggestions in response to 88 ? Thanks
2008-09-05 12:20:18
110.   Eric Stephen
I'm guaranteeing everybody here...that Pat Riley gets inducted into the basketball HOF today at 4:30 (ESPN Classic).
2008-09-05 12:21:44
111.   Bob Timmermann
Gammons has also suggested Carlos Delgado and Geovany Soto for NL MVP.
2008-09-05 12:22:46
112.   Xeifrank
109. I wish I knew Korean town and it's restaraunts as I love Korean BBQ, but sadly I do not. I've only been to one Korean BBQ in the downtown area, and I was quite happy that my car was still there after dinner! I tended to eat most of my Korean BBQ (back in the days) down in the Gardena area.
vr, Xei
2008-09-05 12:24:24
113.   bhsportsguy
108 Tomorrow, in my Reserved level seats.
2008-09-05 12:25:13
114.   old dodger fan
111 I remember hearing someone this week (or last week) going with Delgado. I didn't remember who it was. His comment this morning came with a bit uncertainty. It did not sound like he had really made up his mind.
2008-09-05 12:26:20
115.   Eric Stephen
Tim Kurkjian said today its amazing that Delgado has rebounded to the "periphery" of MVP voting.
2008-09-05 12:28:30
116.   LAT
95 and 98 Ironically a quote from last years' LA Times reveiw of the resturant:

the walls are decorated with signed and framed photos of Korean television stars and athletes. When South Korean baseball player Chan Ho Park was pitching for the San Diego Padres, he was a regular here.

2008-09-05 12:28:39
117.   GoBears
88. LAT - my favorite (the favorite of every Korean person I've asked, which is many) is Chosun Galbi, on Olympic, just west of Western.
2008-09-05 12:29:39
118.   LAT
112 Thanks anyway.
2008-09-05 12:34:05
119.   old dodger fan
With Pujols you get into all the stuff about whether you can give the MVP to a guy whose team is 10 games out of 1st. Whether you agree with the concept or not the Card's performance will cost him votes.

Pujols .360/.468/.640 WOW.
His career #'s are .334/.425/.622

Wouldn't he look good in Dodger Blue!

2008-09-05 12:36:10
120.   The Trolley Dodger
77 Pen Thoughts fled when Shower Cheeseburger Thoughts made an appearance.
2008-09-05 12:36:33
121.   regfairfield
Using Chris Dial's Offense Plus Defense numbers, the difference between Pujols and the second best player in baseball (Berkman) is the same as the difference between Kemp and Berroa. (Granted, this would change of Berroa played a full season).
2008-09-05 12:36:56
122.   LAT
117. Thanks
2008-09-05 12:48:07
123.   old dodger fan
We could have a whole thread of:
Pujols is to Berkman as ______ is to _____.
2008-09-05 12:49:42
124.   Jim Hitchcock
In this time of high political drama (yeah, right), I think it's time to once again pass along the political philosophy of Pat Paulson,
who, during one of his many presidential campaigns, said "I've upped my standards, so up yours."
2008-09-05 12:49:42
125.   regfairfield
Also with OPD, Pujols is both the best defender and best hitter in the NL.
2008-09-05 12:51:13
126.   fanerman
I'm down with OPD. Yeah you know me.
2008-09-05 12:52:53
127.   old dodger fan
Andruw Jones (and Barry Zito) makes more money than Pujols.
2008-09-05 12:56:55
128.   silverwidow
Ivan DeJesus Jr. made Baseball America's Minor League All-Star Second Team (at 2B).

Carlos Santana also made the second team at Catcher (sorry, Nate). Matt Wieters was the first team catcher.

2008-09-05 12:58:13
129.   old dodger fan
We have an uninvited visitor named Hannah getting ready to visit our town so I need to go secure everything that's not tied down.
2008-09-05 12:58:23
130.   Eric Stephen
Pujols is obviously historically great, comparing favorably to the all-time greats.

Looking up Pujols's numbers made me further appreciate how great Frank Thomas was. First 8 seasons:

Thomas: .330/.452/.600, 182 OPS+
Pujols: .334/.425/.622, 170 OPS+

2008-09-05 13:00:37
131.   Bob Timmermann
Beware of hurricanes with palindromic names.
2008-09-05 13:01:33
132.   njr
My favorite Korean BBQ is Soot Bull Jeep but you cook over real fires (why it's so good) and you smell really smokey afterwards. Also, it's not cheap.

The other place I go a lot is shik do rak. It's a little bit south but it's very very good (great kim chi) and not as intense. And pretty reasonable for BBQ. That would be my vote.

2008-09-05 13:02:30
133.   old dodger fan
131 What other ones were there? Eve?
2008-09-05 13:03:42
134.   Eric Stephen
Bob decimated Florida in 1991.
2008-09-05 13:04:32
135.   old dodger fan
134 Timmermann?
2008-09-05 13:07:33
136.   Eric Stephen
Yes, an official scorer in the Southern League was a little too liberal in handing out double errors and the entire state was taken to task by 77 inches of fury.
2008-09-05 13:29:21
137.   Jeromy
Anyone know how the Dodgers have fared in the past in their last 22 games when they were 70-70?

Or do you know where I can go to figure it out?

2008-09-05 13:36:58
138.   Gilberto Reyes
128 Who is Nate?
2008-09-05 13:37:24
139.   Jon Weisman
Hurricane Hanna has no H at the end.
2008-09-05 13:38:26
140.   GoBears
Did we issue W-L record predictions this year? I know we did last year? If we did for '08, does anyone have a record of them? At 70-70 now, it would be fun to have a Timmermannesque "Prediction Deathwatch" as the last 22 games are ticked off.
2008-09-05 13:39:06
141.   SG6
As one who's read a lot of Simers - his tongue was firmly in cheek.

Unless you think this is a serious statement:
"No doubt, [Ned] fooled them all. Oldest trick in the book, too, luring your opponents to sleep, which explains why early on he signed Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre -- everyone figuring the Dodgers were finished with such a cast of misfits.

2008-09-05 13:39:39
142.   silverwidow
138 Purcell. He gets upset when we talk about Santana.
2008-09-05 13:40:21
143.   Jon Weisman
140 - We did. I just remember Daniel Zappala's.
2008-09-05 13:41:48
144.   Marty
Maybe I'm too late here.

I would say Parks is the best Korean BBQ for quality and price. Soot Bull Jeep is a very good one, but you will come out smelling like charcoal. Chosun Galbee is a more high-end place that may take longer than you want.

One of the things I've been meaning to try is Korean fried chicken. It's really spicy chicken wings mostly, but they sound great. There's a couple places that have opened up in Koreatown that are supposed to be great. One is called Kyochan, the other is Bon Chon.

2008-09-05 13:43:11
145.   silverwidow
Phillies sign Iguchi.
2008-09-05 13:43:56
146.   bhsportsguy
144 I got some chicken on Sunday from El Pollo Brasa in Koreatown, very nice Rotisserie Chicken, and they serve it up really fast.
2008-09-05 13:46:36
147.   Gilberto Reyes
128 142 I'm sure the Dodgers knew before the trade that Santana was worthy of a second team catcher spot on the Baseball America list. But that was the price for obtaining Casey Blake who has definitely helped them stay in this NL West race.
2008-09-05 13:48:41
148.   bhsportsguy
142 Put it this way, the Diamondbacks traded Carlos Quentin (he was dealt for Chris Carter), and 5 of their top 12 or 15 prospects for Danny Haren, of which 4 of them have played in the majors this year.

Sure, trading Carlos Santana for possibly a two month rental (along with Jon Meloan) is not great (though I think its fairly clear that right now, his production has been and would have been better than the other alternatives the Dodgers had at that time).

But I think we tend to forget that other teams have made similar deals this year too.

2008-09-05 13:48:52
149.   Bumsrap
137 - Prior to 1961, not including playoff games, the Dodgers never won more than 14 games in the regular season after they were 70, 70. Some one else might answer for the years beginning in 1961.
2008-09-05 13:50:01
150.   regfairfield
148 Danny Haren: close to elite pitcher that was cost controlled for several years.

Casey Blake: Offensively average, defensively inept third baseman that we control for two months.

There's a difference there.

Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2008-09-05 13:55:39
151.   Eric Stephen
There were 66 predictions, and the cumulative winning percentage predicted was .546 (88.4 wins). The median was 89 wins.

fiddlestick picked .500

MC Safety (79-83) and Bob (74-88) were the only ones predicting below .500.

2008-09-05 13:56:16
152.   bhsportsguy
150 But they wrote off Quentin apparently too soon and that is just a high number of prospects to give up for one pitcher. I just think that we tend to go overboard here on our moves and don't look at it with the proper perspective.

But then, over reacting is not an unusual actvity here.

2008-09-05 13:57:01
153.   Eric Stephen
By the way, the Dodgers next loss eliminates me, Jacob L, StolenMonkey86, rubdawg, and Gen3Blue, all of whom predicted 92-70.
2008-09-05 13:57:27
154.   bhsportsguy
BTW, had the Dodgers traded Joel Guzman after his Florida State year, they would have gotten a lot more than Julio Lugo.
2008-09-05 14:02:02
155.   regfairfield
152 Carlos Santana had a better age 22 season than Matt LaPorta at a higher level, in a more pitcher friendly park, as a catcher. The Brewers got CC Sabathia for LaPorta, we got half of Casey Blake. Would you be happy if we got Blake for LaPorta?
2008-09-05 14:06:00
156.   Disabled List
155 No, but I'd be less upset if we had gotten CC Sabathia for Santana.
2008-09-05 14:07:08
157.   MJW101
21 IN 2009:
Billingsley & Kuo are not arb eligible.

McDonald, Wade, Troncoso, Hu & DeWitt will probably get the MLB minimum $400k.

Schmidt gets $15.5M ($12M+bonus)
Pierre gets $10M
Jones gets $17.1M

Ethier, Hemp, Loney & Abreu will get between $450k & $500k.

39 G. Bennett gets $50k in 2009 and Kuroda gets $12.4M.

If Saito can get $5M in 2009 the Dodgers will not offer arb.

2008-09-05 14:08:16
158.   underdog
Yes, as good as Haren is, I think Bh's point -- or maybe this is just my point -- is that the DBacks gave up a ton of prospects basically for Dan Haren. He's undeniably a great pitcher but if he doesn't get them to the promised land, or even the playoffs, will the haul they gave up make it worth it? Or basically, even if Haren is clearly a greater prize than Casey Blake, what they gave up for him is also a lot greater in sum than Carlos Santana.
2008-09-05 14:08:57
159.   bhsportsguy
155 Sure, why not.

But then I am probably the least bothered here by what players do after they leave the Dodgers so don't use me as an example.

Oh, and the plan to have Saito and Furcal play in the minor league playoffs ended when the Inland Empire 66ers were swept out yesterday.

2008-09-05 14:09:29
160.   bhsportsguy
158 Yep, that is my point.
2008-09-05 14:09:55
161.   regfairfield
156 Neither would I. Problem is we got a guy that's been a three run improvement over a non hitting LaRoche (according to Dial's numbers) and has been less productive than DeWitt.
2008-09-05 14:13:50
162.   regfairfield
158 It's a big difference, because it's really, really hard to get players as good as Dan Haren. There are Casey Blakes everywhere, just like there are Greg Smiths and Dana Evelands.
2008-09-05 14:15:16
163.   Eric Stephen
Ethier will be a Super Two in 2009. He has 3 more days service time (2 years, 153 days) than Martin.
2008-09-05 14:15:26
164.   DodgerBakers
as for predicting the 2008 season, this one is looking pretty good to me:
14. regfairfield
87-75, winning a one game playoff against Arizona with Pierre coming off the bench and getting a clutch stolen base.
2008-09-05 14:20:09
165.   Disabled List
164 I doubt very much that the Dodgers will go 17-5 the rest of the way. Did anyone have them for 82-85 wins? That's much more likely.
2008-09-05 14:21:19
166.   regfairfield
164 As much as I'd like to take credit for it, I don't see us going 17-5 the rest of the way.
2008-09-05 14:21:24
167.   Jon Weisman
164 - If only he had indicated that the Dodgers played 163 games.
2008-09-05 14:22:05
168.   Jon Weisman
162 - I bet there are many more Greg Smiths than there are Dana Evelands.
2008-09-05 14:22:56
169.   Marty
146 That would be Pollo ala Brasa on Western and 8th? I think they are the best in town.
2008-09-05 14:23:28
170.   LAT
Thanks Marty and NJR. I will probably give Parks a try. Seems like a safe bet for a first trip to Korea town.
2008-09-05 14:23:56
171.   MJW101
Bills and Ethier may be super2s for arb purposes. I do not know for sure.
2008-09-05 14:24:43
172.   regfairfield
171 Eric Stephen figured out Bills won't be, Ethier will.
2008-09-05 14:24:49
173.   JoeyP

I dont think trading for Haren is anywhere close to Casey Blake. Haren is an elite, in his prime player that has been signed to a reasonable extension.

Blake's a 2month rental.

If anything, compare what the Dbax gave up for 2 month rental of Dunn to that of 2 month rental of Casey Blake.

2008-09-05 14:28:00
174.   Sam DC
168 My neighbor instance!
2008-09-05 14:29:10
175.   JoeyP
I had 82-80.

Surely the Dodgers can put together 12-10. Seems to be their MO.

I was totally wrong on Penny being above average though.

2008-09-05 14:33:19
176.   JoeyP
165--There's actually 5-6 I think that picked 83-79. That record may have been the "mode".
2008-09-05 14:37:07
177.   MJW101
Many posters over the last couple of years have stated that they do not care how much Ned & co give out in contracts, since it is not their money it does not matter to them.

Does the team being in a position where they cannot afford to procure a star player because of lack of funds matter to them?

In the three years Ned & co have been in charge they have squandered between $150M and $200M on contracts for players that have not helped the team win.

That money would have come in handy in 2009.

2008-09-05 14:38:12
178.   Alex41592
Some offensive numbers to think about:

Manny Ramirez vs. Arizona this season:

18 for 34 4 HR's 7 RBI's 11 runs 4 doubles 4 walks and a stolen base.


James Loney:

24 for 60 2 HR's 7 RBI's 7 runs 2 doubles and 5 walks.


Matt Kemp:

21 for 63 3 HR's 9 RBI's 12 runs 3 doubles 1 triple 2 walks and 2 stolen bases.


2008-09-05 14:42:36
179.   Alex41592
Dan Haren had an awful month of August. He's an elite first half pitcher but is showing what he's always shown. Great first half pitcher but a mediocre second half. Though he really outdid himself in August having his worst month since September 2006.
2008-09-05 14:44:02
180.   LogikReader

I was one of those guys. Specifically I said Saito "was sidelined for a week here and there for nagging injuries."

Wow, "a week here and there?"

2008-09-05 14:49:04
181.   Eric Stephen
Here's a recap of the picks (sorry for the formatting):

Daniel Zappala 97 65 0.599
silverwidow 97 65 0.599
KG16 95 67 0.586
Bill Crain 95 67 0.586
ssjames 95 67 0.586
BlueCrew Bruin 94 68 0.580
Eric Enders 94 68 0.580
ibleedbloo 93 69 0.574
KAYVMON 93 69 0.574
Jacob L 92 70 0.568
Eric Stephen 92 70 0.568
StolenMonkey86 92 70 0.568
rubdawg 92 70 0.568
Gen3Blue 92 70 0.568
MollyKnight 91 71 0.562
Inside Baseball 91 71 0.562
68elcamino427 91 71 0.562
Ken Noe 91 71 0.562
MrCourt123 91 71 0.562
trainwreck 91 71 0.562
Bob Hendley 91 71 0.562
CodyS 91 71 0.562
cargill06 90 72 0.556
Sushirabbit 90 72 0.556
preacherroe 90 72 0.556
MidwestBlue 90 72 0.556
Benaiah 90 72 0.556
underdog 89 73 0.549
fanerman 89 73 0.549
Johnson 89 73 0.549
larry slimfast 89 73 0.549
haskell 89 73 0.549
Howard Fox 89 73 0.549
kinbote 89 73 0.549
old dodger fan 88 74 0.543
stevesaxarm 88 74 0.543
Sac Town Dodger Fan 88 74 0.543
invisbleman 88 74 0.543
Hythloday 88 74 0.543
regfairfield 88 75 0.540
Xeifrank 87 75 0.537
Disabled List 87 75 0.537
Humma Kavula 87 75 0.537
gibsonhobbs88 87 75 0.537
TommyLasordid 87 75 0.537
Johnny Nucleo 87 75 0.537
MLKaplan43 87 75 0.537
BALCO Lab Rats 86 76 0.531
KingKopitar 86 76 0.531
3upn3down 86 76 0.531
GMac in the 909 85 77 0.525
Penarol916 85 77 0.525
Doctor 85 77 0.525
Brent Knapp 85 77 0.525
dzzrtRatt 85 77 0.525
El Lay Dave 85 77 0.525
uke 84 78 0.519
Neal Pollack 83 79 0.512
Dexter Fishmore 83 79 0.512
LogikReader 83 79 0.512
philmc78 83 79 0.512
ImprobableImpossible 82 79 0.509
JoeyP 82 80 0.506
fiddlestick 81 81 0.500
MC Safety 79 83 0.488
Bob Timmermann 74 88 0.457

2008-09-05 14:50:15
182.   Sean P

You're underrating Casey Blake. His OPS+ over the last 5 seasons is ~110. As far as defense is concerned, he has been nice and average for us.

Having said that, we should have gotten a whole lot more for two prospects with the value that Santana & Meloan possess than an aging, slighty above-average player, even if he did fill a position of need in a pennant race.

2008-09-05 14:50:39
183.   Eric Stephen
Mean = 88.4
Mode = 91
Median = 89
2008-09-05 14:51:39
184.   Gilberto Reyes
173 You can't compare the Dunn deal to the Casey Blake deal. You have to look at them individually. Sure the D-backs got a great deal for Dunn, but does that make the Casey Blake deal bad?

Plus the D-Backs got Dunn via the waiver process after the trade deadline. Casey Blake would have never cleared waivers to make it to the Dodgers. You just can't compare the two deals in that way.

2008-09-05 14:52:40
185.   Bob Timmermann
I was the most pessimistic person! Woo hoo!

Before the UCLA football game, the radio crew was doing random interviews with people to ask fans what record they thought the Bruins would have.

I said "5-7."

2008-09-05 14:53:05
186.   regfairfield
182 Right, and the average third baseman this year is 107, so average.
2008-09-05 14:57:04
187.   silverwidow
181 That's embarrassing.
2008-09-05 14:57:15
188.   Alex41592
186 - Yes, but going from where we were to what we have is a better point. Third base was a black hole. Now the hole is filled by a 114 OPS+. A tad bit above average was a giant improvement.
2008-09-05 14:59:20
189.   regfairfield
188 Yeah, but when you factor in defense, Blake isn't much better than LaRoche on the Pirates, and is worse than DeWitt.

This is relying on a defensive metric in a small sample size so it's not the perfect measure, but it shows what bad defense can do to an average hitter.

2008-09-05 15:00:22
190.   fanerman
I picked 89? I thought I picked 87. Oh well. 89 and I'm sticking to it!
2008-09-05 15:00:55
191.   Sean P

I consider myself to be slightly optimistic, but I'd have picked the Bruins for 3-9. I was actually very pleased with their first half performance. I was astounded by their second half performance.

2008-09-05 15:01:15
192.   Neal Pollack
The Casey Blake deal was NOT bad. We're way better off at 3B now than we were, especially now that DeWitt has moved over to 2nd. If we'd had LaRoche with the production he's given the Pirates instead of Blake, we'd be in a lot of trouble. Don't get me wrong. Blake's not Mike Schmidt or anything. But he's still the most stable 3B we've had since Beltre left.
2008-09-05 15:01:35
193.   Eric Stephen
All we have to do is finish Orel Hershiser in 1985! I like those odds.
2008-09-05 15:02:38
194.   Harold M Johnson
Who else is going to the game tonight? I am and I'm going to make as much noise as possible. The playoffs begin tonight :)
2008-09-05 15:04:01
195.   JoeyP
Casey Blake would have never cleared waivers to make it to the Dodgers

Who would have claimed him?

2008-09-05 15:06:27
196.   Gilberto Reyes
186 The Dodgers did not even have average production from third base this year, until Casey Blake.
2008-09-05 15:08:37
197.   Alex41592
Without going into defensive metrics and aside from the botched double play ball in S.F how is Casey's defense considered bad. One error at third base. He's doesn't have good range but he's not exactly a rock out there. 114 OPS+ and average defense sounds much better than what we had before.
2008-09-05 15:10:35
198.   regfairfield
Blake as a Dodger: -1 run above average offensively, -3.2 runs defensively, -4.2 total

LaRoche as a Pirate: -9.3 runs offensively, 1.9 runs defensively, -7.4 total

Again, this is a defensive stat in a small sample size so it's unreliable, but if Blake's defensive reputation follows him, he's not much better than an offensively inept LaRoche.

2008-09-05 15:11:24
199.   cargill06
194 I will be there tonight, Loge level between home and 1st.

And after playing out the remaining future schedule I have Az 81-78 and LA 81-78 so yes the play-offs do start tonight.

2008-09-05 15:12:59
200.   Sean P

Just curious, what metric(s) are you relying on? Cause his fielding percentage (.989), range factor (2.60), and zone rating (.752) are all within acceptable limits. And frankly, I think he's looked better than these numbers would suggest.

So I'm wondering where are you getting 'inept' from?

Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2008-09-05 15:13:39
201.   fracule
189 Based on what? He has 1 error in 72 Attempts at 3rd base for the Dodgers.
2008-09-05 15:14:02
202.   bablue
Just wanted to weigh in on the D-Backs deal for Haren.

2008 Runs Created (via Hardbal Times):
Quentin 102 (making league minimum)
Haren 97 (4M, plus 50M+ over the next 4 years)

If the D-Backs just hold on to Quentin and don't trade him for Chris Carter, who they then included in the Haren trade, they're better off right there.

Now take into account they also lost 6 years of Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, and Aaron Cunningham.

Obivously they got a much better return than the Casey Blake trade, but even if Carlos Santana becomes as good as Carlos Quentin, the D-Backs still gave up WAY more. You also have to consider that the D0Backs have considerably less money to spend than we do, so young (cheap) players are even more valuable to them. In fact, I would say that there is no way that the Dan Haren trade (including the Quentin deal) is not a huge loss to the D-Backs in the long run.

The Dodgers definitely make bad moves, but lets remember other teams often do too. Even with the Manny and Blake deals, we should still be able to compete for years to come. :-)

2008-09-05 15:14:33
203.   LogikReader
It took me a while to parse 197 , Alex. I would have enjoyed seeing a big boulder at third base. If you angled it right, balls could bounce right off the rock to James Loney.
2008-09-05 15:16:02
204.   68elcamino427
Thanks Eric. You did a great job when you put those picks together. It was a lot of fun.
My belief was that Torre would teach the Dodgers to "win".
Ethier has taken big strides improving at the plate (especially since the arrival of Manny). Ethier has matured and looks to be more composed and less prone to emotional outbursts then he was at the start of the season.
Kemp has improved his game in a like fashion. At the start of the season Bison was rumored as "trade bait". Now he is recognized for what he is - a budding star.
Martin is a two time All-Star catcher and it appears that Torre is letting Martin have is own head allowing Martin to discover for himself what being a Robot Made of Nails is all about. All the while Martin continues to learn the finer points of the apects of beings a top receiver and team leader. Lately Martin appears to be less the young player and more the wise vetran.
Loney's offense is good and consistent if not spectacular going oppo as Torre desires.
Billingsley is turning into the staff ace as Jon had predicted.
If Kershaw's last outing is to be his new norm the kid is a fast learner.
Broxton succesful in 12 of 14 is the Closer.
2008-09-05 15:16:12
205.   blue22
198 - Rate2's as dodger 3B:

LaRoche: 110
Dewitt: 114
Blake: 112 (much higher than in Cleveland, but he's been making the plays in LA according to this)

Rate2 isn't my favorite stat, but it's serviceable when comparing 3 players at the same position behind the same pitching staff, isn't it?

2008-09-05 15:16:54
206.   regfairfield
200 .752 ZR is near the bottom of the league. The other two have zero merit as defensive stats.
2008-09-05 15:17:46
207.   regfairfield
205 No, because rate2 doesn't account for opportunity. It might as well be a random number in a small sample size.
2008-09-05 15:18:00
208.   bhsportsguy
198 One thing I wonder, is that based on the number of opportunities (which I assumed is factored into the defensive metrics) that come up in a game. Blake/LaRoche is getting 3-4 plate appearances per game but they will not get as many chances in the field.
2008-09-05 15:20:55
209.   Alex41592
203 - My apologies for grammar mistakes. I noticed it immediately after I hit submit. It happens.
2008-09-05 15:22:20
210.   regfairfield
208 Zone rating based numbers do. (% of balls fielded that are hit in your zone with various adjustments depending on the metric), range factor based numbers don't (putouts + assists per inning).
2008-09-05 15:24:39
211.   D4P
Yay! Defensive Metric Thoughts!
2008-09-05 15:25:52
212.   fracule
ZR is also dependant upon how many runners your pitchers allow when you are in the game. Weighting them based on double plays is mildy absurd because you either made a play on the ball or you didn't, the fact there was a runner on base is not a measure of an individual players defensive abilities.
2008-09-05 15:36:53
213.   LogikReader

I don't think there were any mistakes per se. I thought it was on me :)

2008-09-05 15:39:50
214.   KG16
221 - I prefer Bad Gambling Metaphor Thoughts. Or just Poker Thoughts. Defensive Metrics Thoughts drives some to drink.

181 - wow, I was really high on this team at the beginning of the year. I need to try and remember why I was so high on them, I expected a three or four team race in the NL West, must have figured they were going to beat up on everyone else in the league.

2008-09-05 15:39:59
215.   Sean P

The other two have zero merit as defensive stats

Hubris much?

2008-09-05 15:45:42
216.   regfairfield
215 I get very defensive about defensive metrics.
2008-09-05 15:48:12
217.   KG16
214 - that was for 211, not 221, unless it is also about Defensive Metrics Thoughts...
2008-09-05 15:51:31
218.   Sean P

That statement was more indefensible than defensive.

2008-09-05 15:55:27
219.   regfairfield
218 I would shoot myself if I ever said that seriously.

Fielding percentage doesn't work because errors are a flawed measurement. You get punished for having range. Not committing errors is part of defense, but it's not the most important part. It's like only using stolen bases to evaluate hitters.

Range factor is better, but the fact that it doesn't account for opportunity and makes no adjustments based on anything makes it hard to trust. For example, any infielder on a fly ball heavy staff isn't going to look good on range factor.

2008-09-05 15:56:02
220.   Jon Weisman
218 - The methodology of fielding percentage is incredibly flawed. So I wouldn't call what Reg said hubris or indefensible.
2008-09-05 15:57:56
221.   underdog
176 That's not really what I wrote up there at all. I said Haren is far away a better player (even if comparing pitchers to hitters is a bit apples v. oranges). I was talking about the number of top prospects the DBacks ended up giving away in order to acquire him. If anything, as good as he is, the A's look like the real winners given their haul. If you multiply Santana type prospects times 4 or 5, and I'd argue that most of the players they gave up were better than Santana or at least equal, then does the Haren trade still look like a better trade? That's all I was wondering aloud about. Clearly, Haren is a better piece to have than Casey Blake. Thought I was clear there. Guess not. And again, time will tell on some of these deals.
2008-09-05 15:58:48
222.   underdog
Sorry, I meant 173 not 176 .

This is what happens when you work through lunch. Snack break time!

2008-09-05 16:03:02
223.   underdog
Btw, I'm obviously gonna be off with my pick of 89 wins, and think uke's 84 feels about right. I'm gonna with that.
2008-09-05 16:05:52
224.   wronghanded
I don't know how to do it but can somebody find the offensive line for players hitting in front of Manny since his arrival? Seems to me that the numbers would be pretty good considering Kent's tear and now what Ethier is doing.
2008-09-05 16:18:32
225.   bhsportsguy
224 Well, Manny was the leader in August, Ethier had a .961 OPS and Loney and Kent were at .839 and .801 respectively.

But Matt Kemp who batted leadoff most of the time had a .779 OPS and Russell Martin never found a good spot with a .624 OPS.

2008-09-05 16:18:36
226.   Sean P
219 I agree with you. I would just add that Zone Rating has its problems, too.

220 Will all due respect, Mr. Site-Owner, Sir, he said that Fielding Percentage and Range Factor have zero merit. Not questionable merit, but zero merit. In my book, that's a pretty darn dismissive statement to make and one that is hard to defend logically (thus my play on his words).

2008-09-05 16:19:32
227.   68elcamino427
See comment #1 of "Vin Diagrammed"
2008-09-05 16:19:40
228.   Jimmyv11
The game will be on ESPN tonight, this is excellent news for me being a northwest fan with a relaxing evening ahead. While I hope for a Dodger win, i hope they take it easy on Webb my fantasy starter tonight.
2008-09-05 16:20:47
229.   bhsportsguy
228 Webb is starting tomorrow afternoon.
2008-09-05 16:21:05
230.   Jon Weisman
220 - Look, I'm not trying to make a big deal out of this - I've already been in too many of these kind of disputes lately - but was it really a sign of hubris? If it's a misleading stat, what is the above-zero merit of fielding percentage?
2008-09-05 16:22:03
231.   wronghanded
225 Oops, I think I worded my question wrong, I meant the people hitting directly in front of Manny in the batting order. In other words Kent when he was still healthy, Martin for his short stint and now Ethier.
2008-09-05 16:24:55
232.   still bevens
223 I just sent him an email congratulating him on his foresight. Hehe. I think Im going to vote 82-80 next year and be pleasantly surprised when Im wrong.
2008-09-05 16:26:10
233.   bhsportsguy
231 Nothing like that is available without getting out a pencil and paper and doing it that way.
2008-09-05 16:27:31
234.   underdog
228 Time to put fantasy baseball aside for one night. Dodgers first, remember? ;-)
2008-09-05 16:29:31
235.   Alex41592
231 - One second and I'll have it.
2008-09-05 16:29:38
236.   KG16
230 - I would think the percentage of errors committed within the context of opportunities is valuable information. It's quite imperfect, but it's still a data point worth considering.
2008-09-05 16:30:23
237.   Jon Weisman

Drew, SS
Eckstein, 2B
Jackson, LF
Dunn, RF
Tracy, 1B
Reynolds, 3B
Young, CF
Snyder, C
Haren, P


Martin, C
Ethier, RF
Ramirez, LF
Blake, 3B
Loney, 1B
Kemp, CF
DeWitt, 2B
Berroa, SS
Lowe, P
2008-09-05 16:30:27
238.   wronghanded
Ouch thats no good, I tried looking for it on but I'm not the best at catagorizing stats so I figured I'd ask. Thanks for the head's up because I was still trying to do it to no avail. I would have to say though, based on what I've seen the numbers would have to be extremely high.
2008-09-05 16:32:00
239.   Eric Enders
230 I don't think fielding percentage is misleading, per se. It's just less good than all the other defensive metrics. But if you had access to no other defensive metrics, then fielding percentage is better than no metric at all. It doesn't have zero value. Good defensive players, in general, have good fielding percentages, and winning teams also have good fielding percentages -- in general.

So maybe fielding percentage stinks in comparison to Clay Davenport's numbers, or whatever. That's true enough. Where reg erred is in saying it has zero value. Sean's correct; that statement is indefensible. If he'd simply said it has little value compared to other metrics, then everything would be hunky-dory.

It's like saying wins has zero value as a stat. Or RBI. The fact that they don't tell us as much as other stats do, doesn't mean they have zero value. If you have two players and the only thing you know about them is that one guy has 10 wins and the other one has 15, you'd pick the guy with 15 wins every time, and most of the time it would be a correct choice.

2008-09-05 16:33:14
240.   wronghanded
235 Thanks Alex
2008-09-05 16:33:25
241.   Eric Enders
I really am not liking this whole Kemp-batting-sixth thing.
2008-09-05 16:34:03
242.   Sean P

According to my calculations, fielding percentage has a 57.25 above-zero merit factor.

2008-09-05 16:35:00
243.   Alex41592
Hitting in front of Manny Ramirez this season:

Martin: .227/.261/.227/.488 (6 games)

Kent: .380/.410/.481/.891 (19 games)

Ethier: .393/.469/.786/1.255 (7 games)

Nomar: 0 for 4 (1 game)

2008-09-05 16:35:03
244.   Disabled List
181 Man, what an optimistic bunch we all were. I picked 87-75... Ah, those rose-colored glasses were so comfortable.

And if you had told me back in March that the 2008 Dodgers would also acquire Manny Ramirez mid-season, I might even have gone as high as 97 wins.

2008-09-05 16:36:10
245.   Jon Weisman
236/239 - Okay. I guess.

My counter would be that it's never a case where you don't have something superior to look at than wins, or fielding percentage, or RBI. It's a phony scenario. So given that, what's the value?

But it's not worth arguing about, since I'm usually the one interpreting things literally.

2008-09-05 16:36:26
246.   Eric Enders
244 I'm frankly embarrassed by my long-ago optimism. What the heck was I thinking?
2008-09-05 16:37:33
247.   regfairfield
My problem with errors is that it punishes you for doing something that's inherently good, getting to the ball, instead of not getting to the ball in the first place.

To get a win or an RBI you have to do something that's good for your team in the first place. What you have to do to get those has to do with winning games. What you have to do to avoid errors is the opposite of good defense.

2008-09-05 16:37:37
248.   GoBears
236 I would think the percentage of errors committed within the context of opportunities is valuable information. It's quite imperfect, but it's still a data point worth considering.

It might be if "error" were objectively defined. But the assignment of an error is subjecting, especially on sharply-hit ground balls. So you can't trust the numerator. regfairfield already mentioned the problem with the denominator - that it's inversely correlated with quality.

RF is flawed without serious adjustments for pitching staff, etc. FP is worthless. It's as bad as counting W-L record as a measure of pitching quality.

Bad measures are not necessarily better than nothing.

That said, Blake has looked OK to me. Not great, but good hands and an accurate arm. He tends to play in (it seems) to reduce the angles and hide his lack of range. As long as he's quick enough or lucky enough to have balls hit right at him, he's been doing all right.

2008-09-05 16:39:54
249.   wronghanded
243 Thanks again, those are some impressive numbers. I know that many people believe that lineup protection is a fallacy but this certainly gives it some merit (in this particular situation), wouldn't you agree?
2008-09-05 16:40:05
250.   Eric Enders
245 I don't want to draw this out, because I don't think I disagree with you very greatly, but your statement does imply that every stat except the single best one is meaningless. If one believes that, say, VORP is the best stat, then OPS+, EQA, home runs, whatever, all have no meaning and should be tossed out the window. I guess I can't quite look at it that way.
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2008-09-05 16:40:39
251.   GoBears
239 I'm willing to believe that FP and RF might be more meaningful for a team than for an individual. And I think we might be conflating two notions of a stat. One notion is just as a measure of events - what happened. The other is as a measure of quality. I think that at the elite level of baseball, FP tells us nothing about quality.
2008-09-05 17:00:18
252.   ToyCannon
Player of the game tonight is?

Manny Ramirez

I like to go out on a ledge.

2008-09-05 17:02:01
253.   schoffle

"My problem with errors is that it punishes you for doing something that's inherently good, getting to the ball, instead of not getting to the ball in the first place."

I think that statement is inaccurate, I do not believe any player is assessed an error for getting to a ball, the error would general occur when that player throws the ball away allowing the runner to advance to a base that he otherwise wouldn't have gotten to. And that is a bad thing regardless of your desire to reward said player for his outstanding range.

2008-09-05 17:09:00
254.   Jim Hitchcock
228 Damn, I hope the ESPN broadcast doesn't supersede MLB-EI's. I want Vinny, who I was very happy to read the day still has a year on his contract.
2008-09-05 17:15:26
255.   Sean P

Yeah, but how is an "error" any more subjective than a "zone"?

2008-09-05 17:18:40
256.   Jon Weisman
2008-09-05 20:25:40
257.   Jimmyv11
I can't put fantasy aside when my bot ethier just helped me take the lead with his 3/3 4 rbi performance. Im sick of Manny being walked too!
2008-09-05 20:26:03
258.   Jimmyv11
I can't put fantasy aside when my boy Ethier just helped me take the lead with his 3/3 4 rbi performance. Im sick of Manny being walked too!

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