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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
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12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Looking Ahead: The Harmless Version
2008-09-17 11:02
by Jon Weisman

Jinxing the team's playoff chances is one thing, but I think we can safely talk about the fact that the Dodgers, like James Bond, will return in yet another sequel we like to call "2009." The team released a preliminary version of its 2009 schedule today, and here are some highlights:

  • March 21-23: World Baseball Classic semifinals and finals
  • Monday, April 6: Opening day in San Diego
  • Monday, April 13: Home opener vs. San Francisco
  • Sunday, October 4: Regular season finale vs. Colorado
  • Interleague home opponents: A's, Mariners, Angels
  • Interleague road opponents: White Sox (50th anniversary of 1959 World Series), Rangers, Angels

    Shades of 2008: Before finishing their season with three games against the Rockies, the Dodgers have a 10-game road trip September 22-October 1 against three 2008 cellar dwellers: Washington, Pittsburgh and San Diego. For what it's worth, the Dodgers' final game in 2009 against a team that is over .500 in 2008 is August 23 against the Cubs.

  • Comments (194)
    Show/Hide Comments 1-50
    2008-09-17 11:13:18
    1.   KG16
    g'ah, I got LAT'd:

    498 - not if you're winning close games with the good pitcher and getting blown out in losses. Say Pitcher X throws 5 shut outs and his team scores 2 runs in each of those games, so in those 5 games they are +10 in runs scored. Then, let's say the day after each of those 5 shut outs, the team loses 12-2 in each game for a nice -50. Over all, they are -40 but they are 5-5 in those ten games, easily out performing their expected wins and losses.

    2008-09-17 11:14:11
    2.   bhsportsguy
    That would be quite a September road trip but I could see the Dodgers play in 3 ballparks, maybe to a game with Sam DC and Eric Stephen and JJ42.
    2008-09-17 11:14:37
    3.   Xeifrank
    Is April 6th kind of late for an opening game? No trip to China this spring? The Dodger's magic number for 2009 is 163.
    vr, Xei
    2008-09-17 11:15:39
    4.   LogikReader
    How'd the Dodgers end up getting the AL Central two years in a row?
    2008-09-17 11:16:19
    5.   ToyCannon
    Can't expect much improvement from those teams but hate those 10 game road trips.

    Looking forward to the WBC. I guess since the Dodgers will be hosting the event they will be more friendly to those players who would like to participate this year. Expect to see Martin playing for Canada.

    2008-09-17 11:17:17
    6.   old dodger fan
    Dodgers in DC in the middle of the week in September. I need a creative excuse to send to my daughter's school to explain why she was absent.
    2008-09-17 11:17:23
    7.   bhsportsguy
    Looking ahead, the Dodgers will face Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren during that first week.

    But, if Tim Lincecum is the opening day starter for the Giants, the Dodgers will miss him during that first series in LA.

    2008-09-17 11:18:30
    8.   LogikReader

    Wait a minute, no they didn't! We get the AL West this year, with an exception for the White Sox series.

    I stupidly thought the Rangers were in the AL Central.

    2008-09-17 11:19:49
    9.   Alex41592
    7 games with Pittsburgh in late September 2009. Wow.
    2008-09-17 11:19:50
    10.   ToyCannon
    Looking a head the Padres will face Chad/Lohse/Garland:)
    2008-09-17 11:20:19
    11.   Bob Timmermann
    Just a matter of how the calendar shakes out. If you started the season on the last Sunday in March, like it has been (games in Japan notwithstanding), then you'd be starting on March 29. And that's too early.

    It's interesting that as of right now, there are no games scheduled for Sunday April 5, which is Palm Sunday. I doubt that's a consideration though. Passover starts on April 8. Good Friday is April 10 and Easter is April 12 (it would also have been my grandmother's 105th birthday).

    It's best not to wonder why. Just accept whomever is playing. Remember that teams can ask for opponents. And lots of NL teams ask for the Red Sox and Yankees. The Dodgers don't need to do that since they already draw well.

    2008-09-17 11:20:40
    12.   caseybarker
    To respond to 497 in the last thread:

    I'd really like to give those sabermetricians a piece of my mind.

    (ducks under desk)

    2008-09-17 11:20:51
    13.   Physics DR
    Yankee Stadium.
    As I mentioned my first baseball game was at Yankee stadium in 1955 World Series. My father had just got his PhD from MIT and he took his family to New York as a reward.

    We got to run around center field, I got the autographs of about 20 Dodgers, and Duke Snider carried me around on his shoulders. I can still smell the grass!

    I always thought that the World Series had to have the Dodgers and Yankees in it.

    Since this is the last year of Yankee Stadium I had hoped they would make it this year.

    My father got a brick from the Polo Grounds and Ebbets Field when they were torn down. Hopefully I will be able to add a brick from Yankee stadium.

    I have a lot of great memories of family and friends however the memory of Center Field in Yankee Stadium is one of the best.

    2008-09-17 11:23:02
    14.   Jon Weisman
    11 - Dodgers have an exhibition in San Francisco scheduled for April 5.
    2008-09-17 11:23:17
    15.   bhsportsguy
    13 That's cool.

    I am glad that I made my trip to Yankee Stadium and I saw Clemens win a game with Rivera closing it out.

    2008-09-17 11:23:42
    16.   cargill06
    10 Why'd you have to go and put me in a bad mood like that.
    2008-09-17 11:24:16
    17.   bhsportsguy
    14 Jon, what is the scheduled release date for the book, we need to lobby Josh R. for a book signing event at the Stadium.
    2008-09-17 11:26:36
    18.   Bluebleeder87
    WBC should be very cool, I'm looking forward for that.

    another things I'll be looking forward in terms of baseball:

    Matt Kemp
    Clayton Kershaw
    Chad Billingsley (20 game winner?)
    Etanislao Abreu (where is he man)
    James Loney
    Russell Martin (20 dingers, 30% cought stealing)

    basically, all the rooks...

    2008-09-17 11:27:21
    19.   Brent is a Dodger Fan
    Ah, well. I have been thinking about 2009 since the start of this year, thinking that Andy LaRoche would be a budding superstar, Clayton Kershaw would be a fixture (or starting to become one) of the rotation, Martin, Loney and Kemp would be in their early primes, Hu would make the infield defense magical (and possibly earn his place with average hitting), Abreu might make 2B a low-cost position, McDonald/Meloan/Elbert could begin to start, and any holes, especially in the rotation, could be filled with pricey free agents since the rest of the starting lineup would be cheap cheap cheap.

    No LaRoche, likely no Hu, who knows about Abreu, Meloan is gone, the outfield will remain perplexing (especially if an attempt to re-sign Manny does not include dealing away Pierre and/or Jones), and beyond Billingsley and Kershaw, the rotation is a mystery.

    I guess that means I need to put my heart behind this year and hope they can figure it out for 2009, not the other way around!

    2008-09-17 11:27:24
    20.   Bluebleeder87
    I can't believe I fogot this one.

    spring training in Zona! (woo!)

    2008-09-17 11:28:39
    21.   Jon Weisman
    17 - Sometime in March. So, you know, anytime ...

    My goal is to get in the L.A. Times Festival of Books, and then watch my kids spurn me for Mo Willems.

    That's of course assuming that there's still an L.A. Times Festival of Books even though there is no more L.A. Times Book Review section.

    2008-09-17 11:29:05
    22.   underdog
    the Dodgers, like James Bond, will return in yet another sequel we like to call "2009."

    "Dodgers '09: Quantum of Solace" ?

    2008-09-17 11:30:22
    23.   JoeyP
    I wonder if the Dodgers will give Tony Abreu a legit chance to start at 2nd base or SS in 2009?
    2008-09-17 11:32:22
    24.   underdog
    19 Why no Hu?

    And I don't think Meloan and Abreu were ever going to be that important to the '09 Dodgers, imho.

    Think of it this way: DeWitt, DeJesus, Hu, McDonald, Elbert (who has already had a nice taste of the bigs now), plus Kershaw (and of course the core of Billingsley + Broxton, Martin, Kemp, Ethier, Loney), plus a bit later Lambo... It's not like the cupboard will be empty next season. Not counting whoever they either re-sign or sign.

    Which isn't to say there won't be worries, holes and issues...

    2008-09-17 11:33:31
    25.   bhsportsguy
    21 It appears that the Festival will go on.

    The Dodgers are in Colorado that weekend, the only other thing going on at UCLA that time of year is Spring football practice and scrimmage.

    2008-09-17 11:36:38
    26.   Jimmyv11
    Anyone provide the Dodgers magic number?
    2008-09-17 11:37:23
    27.   Eric Stephen
    Kobe's first NBA number
    2008-09-17 11:38:20
    28.   Daniel Zappala
    Thank you to joeyp for answering my question in the previous thread. Since I don't retire for a long time, I'm not too worried.
    2008-09-17 11:39:00
    29.   Daniel Zappala
    Bob, why doesn't SABR wait for the MLB schedule to come out before deciding when to hold their convention? Does that happen too late for them?
    2008-09-17 11:39:59
    30.   ibleedbloo
    June 2009 looks strange. Day off - 2 home games - day off - 3 game road trip - day off - 3 game home stand - 6 game road trip with a day off in the middle
    2008-09-17 11:40:11
    31.   Jon Weisman
    "Vinnie Rodriguez, a sophomore running back and safety at Boron High, died Tuesday night at Loma Linda Medical Center from head injuries suffered last Friday.",0,7096093.story

    2008-09-17 11:40:18
    32.   Bob Timmermann
    They usually do, but hotel space in DC is so hard to find that they had to book very early.
    2008-09-17 11:40:31
    33.   Jimmyv11
    how do Dbags loses affect that number? im sorry i mean diamondbacks
    2008-09-17 11:42:50
    34.   ToyCannon
    That is what Enron employees said 20 years ago. Oops
    2008-09-17 11:42:52
    35.   Bob Timmermann
    The magic number is a combination of Dodgers wins and Dbacks losses.

    Just add the Dodgers wins to the DBacks losses and subtract from 163.

    79 + 76 = 155
    163 - 155 = 8

    2008-09-17 11:42:52
    36.   waterboy100
    so i'm looking at the playoff schedule ( and im a little confused. as of right now (and probably for the playoffs) the dodgers have the third best record of the three division leaders. this means that that they well be the road team for their playoff series. correct?


    2008-09-17 11:43:34
    37.   Bob Timmermann
    The NL West champ will be on the road for Games 1 and 2 of the Division Series unless the Mets and Phillies both go into the tank.
    2008-09-17 11:46:05
    38.   Daniel Zappala
    34 Except I don't hold stock in AIG, they just manage my account.
    2008-09-17 11:46:06
    39.   Eric Stephen
    36 ,37
    ...and the Dodgers can have home field advantage in the NLCS if the wild card team wins round 1.
    2008-09-17 11:46:08
    40.   Disabled List
    Just a quick addendum on the Angels' pyhagorean record and their postseason chances that was discussed in the last thread: The Angels are not only outperforming their expected won-loss record, they may come close to setting the record for largest 2nd and 3rd order win differential.

    However, don't expect them to fall flat in the postseason because of that. The Angels are also leading BP's "Secret Sauce" rankings, just barely ahead of the Red Sox. The Dodgers are ranked 16th.

    2008-09-17 11:46:39
    41.   Jon Weisman
    35 - I've never seen it done that way. I know it's two sides of the same kind, but I always did it as:

    Number of games remaining, plus 1, minus the lead in the loss column.

    11 + 1 - 4 = 8

    2008-09-17 11:47:06
    42.   Daniel Zappala
    37 Would that be a Bradley? A fish tank? Septic? Or one of those dunking tanks at a carnival?
    2008-09-17 11:47:42
    43.   ToyCannon
    If the Wild Card team wins the first round, but they have a better record then us, do we get home field in the 2nd record because we were division champs?
    2008-09-17 11:49:21
    44.   bhsportsguy
    43 Yes.
    2008-09-17 11:49:32
    45.   Bob Timmermann
    I used to do it that way, but found the other way easier for some reason.
    2008-09-17 11:50:48
    46.   ToyCannon
    So then you might be interested in this.
    2008-09-17 11:51:00
    47.   Eric Stephen
    This is really tempting a jinx here, but if Chad wins his next two starts while giving up a total of 2 earned runs in 15 IP, his seasonal numbers will be 17-10 with a 2.88 ERA.

    From Feb 1:
    118. Jon Weisman
    Chad Billingsley will go 17-9 with an ERA of 2.88. There, I said it. And we'll fall in love with him like a girl in a flowing white gown bounding across a springtime meadow

    2008-09-17 11:51:07
    48.   waterboy100
    37 39
    thanks. trying to figure if i need to plan on skipping out of work early..
    2008-09-17 11:51:30
    49.   GoBears
    Thanks for the early preview of the 2009 schedule, Jon. We'll need to remember that next summer - that the easiest part of the schedule is at the end. So even pegging with Arizona or whomever is probably all the Dodgers need to be doing by September 1, when another run can be accommodated by a lousy set of opponents playing their minor league callups.

    I'm not saying this is any sort of unfair advantage for the Dodgers. Schedules are pretty fair within divisions. Just that record on any given date needs to be assessed with strength of schedule to that point in mind.

    I'm sure most of us, including me, will forget that when the dog days roll around and the Dodgers are 3 back.

    2008-09-17 11:51:55
    50.   Jimmyv11
    35 and 41, thanks Bob... and Jon's was a little easier to understand but both work, thank you for the answers and GO BLUE! After seeing, Zambrano, Lilly, and Dempster throw along with Harden, this will be one tough series, anyone got a breakdown of how we played the cubbies this season?
    Show/Hide Comments 51-100
    2008-09-17 11:51:56
    51.   ToyCannon
    It is not a very magic number if it can be derived from simple mathematics.
    2008-09-17 11:52:16
    52.   Louis in SF

    Don't like to be negative but wonder if Abreu will be on the roster by April 6, 2009. Given injury Boras and the way the Dodgers handled his injury, I tend to think he won't be in the mix. Hope I am wrong. Is 2009 his last year under Dodger control?

    2008-09-17 11:52:17
    53.   bhsportsguy
    I always have trouble getting the link to open but DT and Purple, Gold and Blue show favorite Molly Knight is scheduled to be on (or has been on) today's show.

    2008-09-17 11:52:18
    54.   bhsportsguy
    I always have trouble getting the link to open but DT and Purple, Gold and Blue show favorite Molly Knight is scheduled to be on (or has been on) today's show.

    2008-09-17 11:53:13
    55.   Disabled List
    47 Well, Chad's already got 10 losses, so Jon totally blew that prediction.
    2008-09-17 11:53:54
    56.   ToyCannon
    Wow, and I mean WOW.
    2008-09-17 11:54:14
    57.   Eric Stephen
    35 ,41
    I always figured the magic number by figuring out the number of wins the 2nd place team would have if it won out, then add 1, then subtract the wins of the 1st place team.

    [162 - 76] + 1 - 79 = 8

    But Bob's way is much less complicated.

    2008-09-17 11:55:13
    58.   Bob Timmermann
    Sometimes the magic number is lower than the calculations would indicate if future matchups break the right way.
    2008-09-17 11:57:40
    59.   Bob Timmermann
    I would add that isn't the case with the Dodgers. That situation happens usually when a team has a big lead.

    I believe in 2005, the Cardinals clinched the NL Central about 3-4 days before they celebrated because Tony La Russa wouldn't celebrate until the second place team had enough losses.

    2008-09-17 11:58:14
    60.   Jon Weisman
    47 - I'm already half right, aren't I?
    2008-09-17 11:58:21
    61.   Eric Stephen
    Abreu will have 1 year, 85 days of service time after 2008, having spent all year on the major league DL. He is under super cheap club control for two more years, then arbitration eligible for 3 more years. Which means the Dodgers can have him -- if they want -- through 2013.
    2008-09-17 11:58:25
    62.   Marty
    I think the Times will do the book festival as long as it makes them a lot of money, as it does today.
    2008-09-17 11:59:03
    63.   GoBears
    55. Did Billingsley take the loss in that ridiculous rain game in Week 1? If so, we've already agreed that that game didn't count for him. So he'd only have 9 losses. Jon can't be blamed for not predicting that Torre would go temporarily insane (musta been some bad Chinese food).

    If Billingsley didn't get the loss in that game (too lazy to look it up).... Never Mind.

    2008-09-17 12:00:19
    64.   Eric Stephen
    No doubt the Chadoration® part has been fulfilled. I just found it amazing how close you are to the actual numbers. No matter his next few starts, I'd say your predictions are well within range. But you are very, very close to deadly accuracy.
    2008-09-17 12:00:50
    65.   Bob Timmermann
    Loaiza lost that game.
    2008-09-17 12:01:31
    66.   Eric Stephen
    He didn't get the loss, but he got the kind of blown save that is held against pre-closer Broxton.
    2008-09-17 12:02:02
    67.   Jon Weisman
    65 - Yes, but it caused Chad to lose the game after that.
    2008-09-17 12:03:04
    68.   ToyCannon
    150 games later I'm sure Joe is also wondering why he was jerking around the best pitcher on his team and a big reason this team will be popping bubbly very soon.
    2008-09-17 12:04:39
    69.   bhsportsguy
    Link to Purple, Gold and Blue with today's guest, Molly Knight of ESPN the Magazine.

    2008-09-17 12:05:50
    70.   Andrew Shimmin
    Are we really prepared, as a community, to hope that Zappala's retirement fund will be okay, even though it's now directly at odds with Bob's skull cracking tool/goo inside prep kit cottage industry?
    2008-09-17 12:06:24
    71.   Eric Stephen
    I can't remember if I posted it here or not, but I told more than a few people before this season that Chad would have a better year than Dan Haren.

    Heading into tonight:

    Billingsley 51.1
    Haren 51.1

    Billingsley 146
    Haren 140

    Haren 3.04
    Billingsley 3.25

    Close call so far.

    2008-09-17 12:08:16
    72.   underdog
    65 Who's Loiaza?


    2008-09-17 12:09:47
    73.   ToyCannon
    Interesting how we went from having a hole at 2nd base to three interesting options in DeWitt, DeJesus, and Abreu, while 3rd base is now in play.

    Casey Blake playing 3rd base in 2009 would not bother me in the slightest. I like the Beard and his OBP should start to trend up, this is a bit low for him.

    2008-09-17 12:10:43
    74.   cargill06
    What are the chances Chad starts game 1 in New Philago? I'm guessing about 20%, the ultimate PVL big gameness of Lowe is lurking in the corner of Joe's eye.

    If he did, I don't have a big problem with it. Just curious.

    2008-09-17 12:11:32
    75.   Eric Stephen
    More reason to pull for Chad to get a 2.88 ERA:

    (from the same Feb 1 thread)
    120. Xeifrank
    118. If that ERA is correct, then I will watch an episode of Lost or Desperate Housewives, whichever show ya'll are drueling over next October. vr, Xei


    I found my Bills/Haren quote, but it's pretty vague and weak compared to the boldness of Jon's prediction:

    111. Eric Stephen
    I'm definitely on board with the sub-4.00 ERA for Billingsley. I have a feeling he will be better than Dan Haren this year.

    2008-09-17 12:13:27
    76.   Bob Timmermann
    There won't be any episodes of Lost on in October. And I don't think we have many "Desperate Housewives" fans.
    2008-09-17 12:13:27
    77.   bhsportsguy
    75 How many scoreless innings does he need?

    I laughed when I read that.

    2008-09-17 12:14:13
    78.   Jon Weisman
    Tonight's lineup:

    Martin, C
    Ethier, RF
    Ramirez, LF
    Blake, 3B
    Garciaparra, 1B
    Kemp, CF
    Ozuna, 2B
    Berroa, SS
    Billingsley, P

    2008-09-17 12:14:37
    79.   bhsportsguy
    76 He has to buy the "Mad Men" dvd. Or "The Wire."
    2008-09-17 12:14:58
    80.   Bluebleeder87

    if it happens I'll wow right along with you.

    2008-09-17 12:16:20
    81.   Jon Weisman
    76 - Lost reruns:

    2008-09-17 12:16:22
    82.   Eric Stephen
    2 ER in 15 IP, per 47
    2008-09-17 12:16:50
    83.   Bluebleeder87
    when the season started I thought PECOTA was right on the money with it's ERA prediction on Billingsley.
    2008-09-17 12:18:22
    84.   cargill06
    83 And what was the prediction?
    2008-09-17 12:19:19
    85.   bhsportsguy
    82 Or he could duplicate what Haren did last night.
    2008-09-17 12:20:28
    86.   underdog
    I don't mind giving guys days off at this point, but why Ozuna over Hu, who is at least better defensively? Oh well, whatever, the top 6 in that line-up can do plenty of damage.
    2008-09-17 12:20:31
    87.   Brent is a Dodger Fan
    24 I expected Hu to get enough of a showing this year to give him a chance to start next year. I think, instead, his poor showing at the plate has doomed the Dodgers to fetching a shortstop from free agency or trade, unless Ned Colleti is no longer the GM.

    I just think he'll get the Andy LaRoche treatment.

    2008-09-17 12:21:30
    88.   ToyCannon
    I predicted that Chad's big butt would make Will Carrol whine like a baby over at the Juice about the lack of respect he gets just because he's wrong all the time.
    2008-09-17 12:21:56
    89.   Andrew Shimmin
    PECOTA weighted mean for Billingsley was 3.99 ERA over 173.7 IP. He's out-VORPing his 75th percentile projection.
    2008-09-17 12:22:29
    90.   ToyCannon
    Yup, Hu will have to make another city laugh for a while.
    2008-09-17 12:22:47
    91.   underdog
    87 You may be right, given today's line-up for one, but on the other hand the Dodgers did say Hu was untouchable in trade talks, apparently, and internally I've heard they're still pretty high on him. I guess we'll see, maybe they see him as a backup or trade bait, but maybe they're also just giving him time to adjust and his "eye" to improve this year.
    2008-09-17 12:23:03
    92.   Bluebleeder87

    i'm not familiar with PECOTA (to be honest) but somebody brought that up & I felt it was pretty accurate.

    PECOTA said something like a high 3 ERA from what I remember.

    2008-09-17 12:23:28
    93.   ToyCannon
    I only agree with 1/2 that. I expect Furcal to be our starting SS in 2009.
    2008-09-17 12:25:28
    94.   Bluebleeder87
    man, he really has a good chance today pitching against the Pirates!
    2008-09-17 12:27:58
    95.   Tripon
    78 DeWitt getting a blow? Wonder why Ozuna and not Hu? Almost like Hu's in another dog house.
    2008-09-17 12:30:43
    96.   Disabled List
    JoePos sends some love Manny's way on the front page of
    2008-09-17 12:38:14
    97.   Tripon
    The Dodgers, managed by Cano's first manager, Joe Torre, are said to be interested. The New York Post mentioned that possibility last offseason, well before Cano's terrible year.

    What will win out, Torre love for Cano, or Torre love for DeWitt.

    2008-09-17 12:39:26
    98.   Eric Enders
    Getting Cano wouldn't be a bad idea while his value's at its lowest point. What would it take? DeWitt and who?
    2008-09-17 12:42:29
    99.   Tripon
    98 They would want starting pitching. DeWitt, and Penny, or if Cashman is really smart, DeWitt and McDonald.
    2008-09-17 12:43:10
    100.   CanuckDodger
    DeWitt alone for Cano would be unbelievably dumb on our part. God.
    Show/Hide Comments 101-150
    2008-09-17 12:43:34
    101.   cargill06
    I don't think there is anyway Torre would approve trading away our little Blakey.
    2008-09-17 12:44:14
    102.   LoneStar7
    I'm only slightly intrigued by the prospect of cano because my roommate from Darien is a yankee fan and has a robbie man crush.

    other than that I'm liking the DeWitt experiment at second so far.

    I hope we get to Duke early so we can see Loney and DeWitt make some mid to late game appearances

    2008-09-17 12:45:30
    103.   bhsportsguy
    97 Again with Cano thoughts?


    Bill James, a baseball writer (and Boston Red Sox advisor) who has spent much of his life knocking down baseball myths, believes that Manny Ramirez is such a good, hitter, he will purposely get into full-counts when there is a runner on first base. The reason? With a full-count, that runner will be running on the pitch and, as such, will become an RBI when Ramirez hits a double into the gap.

    "I've seen it too many times to doubt it," Bill says.

    2008-09-17 12:46:45
    104.   Louis in SF
    Two years ago Ned thought he was not going to have to deal with Boras as much, this off season Boras and Ned might have to take a condo together. Jones, Lowe, and Manny to start and if they make a run at Beltre and try to sign him long term.
    2008-09-17 12:47:37
    105.   ucladodger


    And Torre is really going overboard with the whole lefty matchup thing. No reason why Loney should be sitting.

    2008-09-17 12:47:55
    106.   Eric Stephen
    If you're a good enough hitter to purposely get into full counts, more power to you! That's pretty awesome.
    2008-09-17 12:49:37
    107.   ToyCannon
    If ever a myth needed to be busted that is it. You would think if Bill was going to make such a ludicrous statement he'd have something to back it up with to at least leave some credence to such a claim.
    2008-09-17 12:50:15
    108.   bhsportsguy
    106 Well, he is not doing that well this year hitting after the count reaches 3-2.

    But, I do think, Manny does set up pitchers pitch by pitch and at bat by at bat. And he does that as well as anyone I have ever watched on a consistent basis.

    2008-09-17 12:50:58
    109.   Tripon
    Didn't Bill James advocate to the Red Sox not to pick up the option years for manny?
    2008-09-17 12:51:56
    110.   ToyCannon
    I was impressed with how Andruw Jones worked himself into those 0-2 counts on purpose.
    2008-09-17 12:52:33
    111.   Tripon
    105 I think Torre trying to get as much offense as he can today, while letting Manny sit tomorrow. At least Ethier's starting tonight.
    2008-09-17 12:54:05
    112.   Alex41592
    Remember that we have a 9:35 a.m PST game tomorrow morning. Not to mention three straight games against lefties so Torre should take advantage of that to rest some players. Kemp yesterday, Loney/DeWitt today and Manny (perhaps) tomorrow.
    2008-09-17 12:54:56
    113.   Tripon
    I'd be disturbed if Ozuna makes the post season roster over Hu.
    2008-09-17 12:55:53
    114.   Tripon
    112 And we'll see defensive replacements of at least Nomar, and Ozuna in the 6th or 7th inning as we blow up the Pirates bullpen.
    2008-09-17 12:56:29
    115.   Alex41592
    114 - Exactly.
    2008-09-17 12:56:32
    116.   silverwidow
    So the Vikes finally benched Jackson. I was hoping Booty would get a chance, but his turn will come soon enough.
    2008-09-17 12:57:26
    117.   cargill06
    Is there any chance Mil. trades JJ Hardy this off-season. They said he probably would on baseball tonight. A plus offenisve SS and plus-plus defensive SS under club control for '09 and '10 why would they trade him unless they're in complete rebuilding mode? They would have to get a Miguel Caberra type package to make it worth it.
    2008-09-17 13:00:04
    118.   Alex41592
    Everytime I think of Zach Duke, I think of Olmedo Saenz and his total domination of him.
    2008-09-17 13:00:22
    119.   cargill06
    105 I could see one big reason why Loney shold be sitting.

    Loney vs. LHP- .269/.322/.391
    Nomar vs. LHP- .306/.397/.510

    2008-09-17 13:00:53
    120.   Tripon
    116 Booty can't really throw for yardage. Looking at Sanchez play this year, USC should have just skipped Booty straight to Sanchez.

    117 The Brewers might be in complete rebuilding mode next year. They might trade Fielder, they'll lose Sheets, and C.C., and Weeks is having such a bad year, and a pay raise that they might non tender him.(IMO). And Parra might be their best pitcher next year. Not the best combination to try to reach the playoffs next year. Might as well blow it up, and try to get talent for what they have.

    2008-09-17 13:03:51
    121.   scareduck
    58 - see

    Sometimes a team can appear to have a mathematical chance to win even though they have actually been eliminated already, due to scheduling. In this major league baseball scenario, there are three games remaining in the season. Teams A, B and C are assumed to be eligible only for the division championship; another team with a better record in another division has already clinched the one available "wild card" spot:

    Team Wins Losses
    A 97 62
    B 97 62
    C 95 64

    If Team C were to win all three remaining games, it would finish at 98-64, and if both Teams A and B were to lose their three remaining games, they would finish at 97-65, which would make Team C the division winner. However if Teams A and B are playing against each other in the final weekend (in a 3 game series), one of them will win at least two games and thereby clinch the division title with a record of either 100-62 or 99-63. The more direct consequence of this situation is that it is also not possible for Teams A and B to finish in a tie with each other, and Team C can't win the division.

    2008-09-17 13:03:52
    122.   old dodger fan
    Isn't Ozuna about to become a free agent? Maybe Joe wants to see him play some before deciding whether to pursue him or not.
    2008-09-17 13:07:38
    123.   cargill06
    120 Well, let me ask than, what would it take to get JJ?

    I'm drooling on my keyboard thinking about it.

    2008-09-17 13:07:44
    124.   Tripon
    122 I doubt it. Ozuna doesn't offer much defensively or offensively. And he's at best a marginal bench player. Might as well miscast Hu in that role over Ozuna.
    2008-09-17 13:08:25
    125.   Tripon
    123 At least McDonald, and a SS replacement, of either Hu, or DeJesus.
    2008-09-17 13:08:32
    126.   scareduck
    120 - all the contending teams have interesting problems coming up, and among the non-contending teams, the Yanks have the most interesting situation because of their even-deeper pockets this offseason. The Angels are going to lose one or both of Mark Teixeira and K-Rod, they need to make a decision on extending Vlad beyond the team's 2009 option, and the outfield looks awfully thin even if they do re-sign him (Garret Anderson likely gone, Gary Matthews, Jr. long-termed in a horrible deal, Torii Hunter entering his decline phase, no obvious players to replace or augment any of the above), and that's not even including the bench.
    2008-09-17 13:09:13
    127.   trainwreck
    Honeycutt was actually a silent verbal for at least a couple of weeks.
    2008-09-17 13:13:14
    128.   Jim Hitchcock
    21 Wow, the Times dropped the book review? Always the favorite part of my Sunday read. Glad I moved to Nevada.
    2008-09-17 13:13:28
    129.   ToyCannon
    Green is still looking to play close to home.

    Any thoughts on the Angels going after Manny?

    2008-09-17 13:14:13
    130.   Tripon
    129 Shawn Green? Didn't he retire?
    2008-09-17 13:17:16
    131.   Tripon,0,3128847.column?track=rss

    Yu Darvish won't be posted this year. If I'm Darvish, I might as well play out my contract in Japan, and then sign huge money when I'm in my early 30's.

    2008-09-17 13:19:31
    132.   JoeyP
    In the playoffs, does Loney get platooned with Nomar?

    Or does Nomar play SS?

    2008-09-17 13:22:02
    133.   Tripon
    132 I would assume Nomar starts against lefties, and then move to SS late in the game.
    2008-09-17 13:24:40
    134.   Eric Enders
    I'm unconcerned enough with jinxes, I guess, to start thinking about a possible playoff roster. What would it look like?

    Sure things (21):

    Kuo (assuming his arm's attached)
    Saito (ditto)

    Which leaves you with four players to select from the following...

    Possibles (13):

    For me, the toughest choice is between Maddux and Elbert. You can't take both because you sure as heck don't need 12 pitchers on a playoff roster (actually, you probably don't even need 11). So anyway, the four guys I'd take are...

    If Furcal's available: Young, Elbert, Furcal, Hu
    If Furcal's unavailable: Young, Elbert, Hu, Repko

    I'm sure the Dodgers wouldn't dare leave Maddux off a playoff roster. But I would. Sorry Greg.

    2008-09-17 13:25:40
    135.   Alex41592
    I would assume Berroa starts at short because Nomar can't really move from side to side. If we face Santana or Hamels I could see it happening.

    If we face the Cubs I wouldn't bench Loney for Ted Lilly.

    2008-09-17 13:26:28
    136.   scareduck
    103 - I still don't get "Manny Being Manny" as a nickname. Number one, it's longer than his real name in both syllables and letters, and number two, it's descriptive of what he does rather than who he is.
    2008-09-17 13:26:37
    137.   underdog
    I'm off to an afternoon of moviewatching (pre-Mill Valley Film Fest flix) and will miss most of the Dodger game live, including Ozuna's two-run home run, so... Go Blue!
    2008-09-17 13:27:08
    138.   Tripon
    Joe (Albany): Jim Who is the better prospect today- Ivan DeJesus Jr. or Chin Lung Hu?

    SportsNation John Manuel: King of apples and oranges, but I'll take the guy with the better bat, DeJesus. There have been Q's about Hu's bat for several years and he reinforced them in his big league promotion; I still like him but like DeJesus better.

    2008-09-17 13:27:25
    139.   Eric Stephen
    If the Dodgers had to choose only one of Kershaw or Maddux for the playoff roster, I'm not convinced they won't choose Maddux.
    2008-09-17 13:27:26
    140.   Disabled List
    Kershaw is the one who should be left off the playoff roster. He's already way over the number of innings I wanted to see him throw this year. It's time to shut him down.
    2008-09-17 13:28:04
    141.   underdog
    134 IF Kuo is healthy in time, I can't see them taking Elbert, really. If Kuo isn't, then, yes, Elbert.

    Of course this is preaching to the choir but I would drop Sweeney, keep Young + another position player to be PH. Sweeney's worthless.

    2008-09-17 13:28:04
    142.   JoeyP
    So Loney could only play 1 of 3, or 2 of 5 games vs the Mets: Santana/Pedro/Perez/Pelphrey/Santana

    James Loney should not be benched for Angel Berroa no matter whom is pitching.

    2008-09-17 13:28:37
    143.   scareduck
    129 - almost zero chance of Manny ending up as an Angel. He's the exact opposite of the kind of player Mike Scioscia likes to see, a guy who becomes a distraction off the field. Jose Guillen was the last experiment with that sort of player, and he got ejected from the postseason roster with less than a month to go after he publicly complained about being yanked for a pinch runner during the game.
    2008-09-17 13:29:07
    144.   Tripon
    Mike (Albany, NY): Hi John, thanks for taking my call, what do Andrew Lambo and James McDonald project out to be in the big leagues for the Dodgers? Their ETA?

    SportsNation John Manuel: Ha, nice . . . little lightning round. I am on the Lambo bandwagon, I got sold a bad bill of goods on him when he was an amateur, he just flat hits. He's gonna move quickly and he's gonna hit. I'm a bit less excited about McDonald just because it sounds like the fastball is fringe-average or average; I know Ben Badler here at BA is a believer, and athleticism plus a feel for pitching is a good combination as well. McDonald could be ready in '09 if needed; Lambo will need to wait until 2010 I'd guess.

    2008-09-17 13:29:57
    145.   Eric Stephen
    I don't think the Dodgers think Nomar's body can hold up defensively at SS for 9 innings at a time. Maybe they are saving him for the playoffs.
    2008-09-17 13:30:13
    146.   Tripon
    143 Guillen's just a malcontent, Manny's almost harmless.
    2008-09-17 13:31:23
    147.   Eric Enders
    Manny's harmless when he wants to be. He's also pretty harmful when he wants to be.
    2008-09-17 13:31:26
    148.   JoeyP
    134--I was on vacation recently so maybe I missed it...but is Jeff Kent shut down for the season?

    You'd have to think Kent would be on the playoff roster.

    2008-09-17 13:32:20
    149.   Tripon
    148 He's still rehabbing, but he might be able to pinch hit. No way he's starting in any games in the playoffs. 2nd base is DeWitt's job now.
    2008-09-17 13:32:23
    150.   Alex41592
    142 - I agree. But, I can still see it happening. But, I think Torre will start Loney regardless.
    Show/Hide Comments 151-200
    2008-09-17 13:33:01
    151.   scareduck
    128 - yeah, it's part of a combined Arts section in the Sunday paper. If the Times is getting small, you should see the Register ... in a few years it will be as thin as the little free weekly Sun paper we get that covers Los Alamitos/Rossmoor/Sunset Beach/Seal Beach.
    2008-09-17 13:36:42
    152.   Eric Enders
    Here are some completely meaningless stats which I'm sure will nonetheless hold meaning for Torre.

    James Loney vs.
    Ted Lilly (3 PA): 0-for-3, .000 OPS
    Cole Hamels (6 PA): 1-for-6, .500 OPS
    Johan Santana (3 PA): 1-for-3, .666 OPS

    2008-09-17 13:37:52
    153.   ToyCannon
    You can't get caught up in the innings number. Not putting Kershaw on the playoff roster would be shooting yourself in the foot. The inning ceiling was just some number and not something that can't be breached. If he was struggling and it looked like the load was taking it's toll I could understand shutting him down but I don't see that happening.

    He could be Joba lights out for a few innings during the postseason.

    As someone said Kent probably comes back and makes the postseason. I'm also counting on Furcal making the postseason. The leaves room for D Young and Maddux.

    2008-09-17 13:38:42
    154.   ToyCannon
    Great line, we have only seen the happy Manny.
    2008-09-17 13:38:47
    155.   Tripon
    153 If Kent makes the post season roster, I can't see Sweeney making it too. They basically fill the same role.
    2008-09-17 13:39:12
    156.   Harold M Johnson
    108 Manny does set up pitchers pitch by pitch and at bat by at bat.

    It's so true. I've personally never seen anything like it until getting the chance to watch Manny every day. What other hitters in the league do that?

    2008-09-17 13:39:50
    157.   Bluebleeder87
    You gotta agree on shutting down Kershaw.
    2008-09-17 13:41:54
    158.   Alex41592
    There has been nothing in the past month that leads me to believe they are shutting Kershaw down. Not one thing.
    2008-09-17 13:42:39
    159.   68elcamino427

    Manny - "Mr. Ultimo"
    Super Mentor
    Super Protector
    Super Producer

    Get yer dreds on!

    2008-09-17 13:43:13
    160.   Tripon
    Torre: We're shutting down Kershaw. DT told us too.
    2008-09-17 13:43:18
    161.   Bluebleeder87
    the way they brought along Bills should be Dodger protocal.
    2008-09-17 13:45:27
    162.   Tripon
    161 So we should resign Bret Tomko and start him over Kershaw?
    2008-09-17 13:46:47
    163.   Bluebleeder87
    it's gonna be cool watching the Dodgers clinch & not only that, but watching them bust there dancing moves.
    2008-09-17 13:48:34
    164.   Eric Enders
    The solution's kind of obvious, isn't it? Have McDonald make Kershaw's last couple of starts. Start Kershaw in the playoffs. If his innings end up at 168 instead of 160, who cares?
    2008-09-17 13:50:21
    165.   JoeyP
    I think judging a pitcher's workload on innings is to simplistic.

    Kershaw's pitch counts would be a better indicator.

    2008-09-17 13:50:36
    166.   cargill06
    163 They'll do it at home too.
    2008-09-17 13:54:47
    167.   Disabled List
    With the systemic Red Sox fetish the Dodger organization has, they ought to look at the way Boston shut down Clay Buchholz last season, even after he threw a no-hitter. He had thrown 148 innings, after 119 IP the year before, and even with the playoffs looming, Boston sat him for the rest of the year.

    Now that the division title is getting close, the Dodgers really ought to nut up and tell Torre that Kershaw's season is over. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe he's at 157 IP on the year, up from 122 last year. That's enough for 2008.

    2008-09-17 13:56:37
    168.   Harold M Johnson
    165 that may be true, but I would bet you won't see much variation from them saying X amount of pitches or Y amount of innings. If a guy is able to get to 170 IP, chances are his pitchcount is close to average.
    2008-09-17 13:56:42
    169.   68elcamino427
    Picture this for a moment.

    Kershaw in for an inning or even one batter painting the corner down and in at 97 mph+ :)

    2008-09-17 14:00:29
    170.   Humma Kavula
    153 Did Prior seem to be struggling in 2003?

    Look, I don't really know if Baker overworked Prior in 03. And there's certainly a lot of evidence on all sides. And even if Prior was overworked, I don't know that you can point to that as the cause of his current troubles.

    But why take the chance? I'd rather have Kershaw than Maddux, too, but not enough to risk Kershaw's career.

    2008-09-17 14:02:05
    171.   bhsportsguy
    The best case scenario, Kershaw, whose next start after tomorrow would be a week from today, will not have to start because the Dodgers have clinched.
    2008-09-17 14:02:39
    172.   Johnny Nucleo
    162 Starting Chad out in long relief worked out pretty well. They should do try doing that with Mcdonald this coming year.

    On another note, Kershaw would be pretty dominating out of the bullpen for the playoffs.

    2008-09-17 14:03:41
    173.   Eric Stephen
    Hasn't Buchholz been hurt all year though? Is he the best example to follow?
    2008-09-17 14:06:03
    174.   delias man
    There is no way the teams RBI leader will be platooning during the playoffs.

    Also, as much as I hate to see it, there is nothing that makes me think that Torre will leave Sweeney off of any playoff roster. Face it everyone, he is here for the long haul.

    2008-09-17 14:06:28
    175.   Humma Kavula
    I hope my own 170 wasn't over the top. I'm just as high on Kershaw as everybody else is. I remember watching the Sean Casey at-bat live, and then watching it over and over again when Jon posted it on Youtube. That strike-three curve was one of the nastiest pitches I've ever seen.

    And if the argument for starting Kershaw is that you have to risk a bit in the postseason becuase flags fly forever, well, I'm very sympathetic to that argument. I just hope we don't look back on the Dodgers' 2008 postseason with a mix of joy for what it brought and regret for what it took with it.

    2008-09-17 14:09:53
    176.   Gilberto Reyes
    I don't feel comfortable about Kershaw being used in relief in the playoffs because of his occasional commmand issues.

    Any speculation on why Torre hasn't let James McDonald throw a single pitch after 16 days?

    2008-09-17 14:12:17
    177.   trainwreck
    They didn't have him pitch at the end of last year, because of fatigue. Maybe same thing.
    2008-09-17 14:13:38
    178.   Disabled List
    173 He wasn't hurt this year because he pitched too few innings last year.
    2008-09-17 14:16:42
    179.   southbaydodger
    I was reading Gammons blog today on ESPN re: the Dodgers, and in the comments, someone suggested the Dodgers going after Zac Grienke (sp?) from the Royals. I don't have the package so I never see any games besides the blue crew, but his stats look pretty good. Is he one that could fall under the radar with Sheets and Sabathia out there?
    2008-09-17 14:18:09
    180.   Gilberto Reyes
    176 Fatigue could be the reason. But did they know that before they called McDonald up on September 1? It almost seems like James is the forgotten man on the roster. I would like to see him start a game at home vs. San Diego if the Dodgers are fortunate enough to clinch next week.
    2008-09-17 14:18:18
    181.   Johnny Nucleo
    174 Yep. Sweeney will get the call.
    I'd agree with Eric's list of sure things 134 , and would guess that the four players to round out the roster would be Maddux (#4 starter), Sweeney (pinch-hitter), Furcal & Kent (if available), Young (pinch-hitter) & Hu (defensive replacement) if not. I don't see Elbert getting the call unless the opponent is weak against lefties, in which case Kershaw might get the start over Maddux. But I'd be 90% sure Torre would have Maddux start over Kershaw. I also wouldn't be too surprised if Kershaw were dropped from the playoff roster in favor of Penny or Proctor, if either are healthy.
    2008-09-17 14:20:13
    182.   southbaydodger
    181 - "I also wouldn't be too surprised if Kershaw were dropped from the playoff roster in favor of Penny or Proctor, if either are healthy."

    That would be a crime...

    2008-09-17 14:22:02
    183.   Eric Stephen
    That doesn't make the flip side of that true.
    2008-09-17 14:25:45
    184.   trainwreck
    Greinke would be awesome.
    2008-09-17 14:26:23
    185.   bhsportsguy
    176 Because these games still mean something.

    I said it when he came up, that James McDonald was probably the least likely of the promotions to get any playing time while the season was still in doubt.

    And really, for the most part, outside of probably Scott Elbert, he hasn't played those guys in high leverage situations.

    2008-09-17 14:26:27
    186.   trainwreck
    He can't be a free agent yet though, right?
    2008-09-17 14:29:02
    187.   Lexinthedena
    Greinke would cost a lot.
    2008-09-17 14:31:15
    188.   Humma Kavula
    187 Well, I'm not paying a lot for that... pitcher.
    2008-09-17 14:33:30
    189.   GoBears
    I fear that 181 is correct. If one believes that PVL matters, then one must believe that it matters more in October. Torre and Colletti will do everything they can to raise the average age of the roster for the playoffs. Let's just hope that injuries (as so often happens with this team) force them to do the right thing.
    2008-09-17 14:35:19
    190.   ToyCannon
    That would limit his innings but if he is going to pitch in the playoffs do you really want him to have that many days off between appearances?
    2008-09-17 14:35:56
    191.   trainwreck
    I would pay a lot for him. Will be cheaper than CC and Sheets. He is still really young and could build with our staff and team.
    2008-09-17 14:41:55
    192.   Disabled List
    183 If you're going to err, might as well err on the side of caution. Kershaw is a still-maturing 20-year-old, and his IP has increased dramatically this year. Let's not turn him into Mark Prior.
    2008-09-17 14:52:26
    193.   goofus
    Take it to the bank, the Over The Hill Gang, Sweeney, Nomar, Kent, and Maddux (his last game not withstanding) have guaranteed roster spots...
    2008-09-17 14:52:51
    194.   Jon Weisman

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