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About Jon
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
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12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

One Game at a Time
2008-09-19 11:31
by Jon Weisman

The Dodgers haven't gained a game on Arizona since Saturday, but they have been whittling time off the schedule. And Thursday, they won their first one-run game since August 13. (They had only been involved in five during that stretch.)

Overall, the Dodgers are 18-22 in one-run games in 2008 - the 12th-best mark in the National League. In games not decided by one run, the Dodgers are 62-51, fifth in the league.

* * *

NL West Stretch Run
Date Dodgers Diamondbacks September 5 Comment At Day's End


at San Diego at San Francisco Dodgers have the easier opponent but probably the tougher atmosphere to play in. +1.5 games
9/9 at San Diego at San Francisco    +2.5
9/10 at San Diego at San Francisco    +3.5
9/11 Idle Idle    +3.5
9/12 at Colorado vs. Cincinnati Advantage, Arizona. The Rockies might still be fighting to stay in the race, at home.  +3.5
9/13 at Colorado vs. Cincinnati    +4.5
9/14 at Colorado vs. Cincinnati    +4.5
9/15 at Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco Traditionally an easy series for the Dodgers, this comes at the end of a 10-game road trip, so they'll be hoping Giants pitching gives Arizona trouble.  +4.5
9/16 at Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco    +4.5
9/17 at Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco    +3.5
9/18 at Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco    +3.5
9/19 vs. San Francisco at Colorado Advantage, Los Angeles.  
9/20 vs. San Francisco at Colorado    
9/21 vs. San Francisco at Colorado    
9/22 Idle at St. Louis    
9/23 vs. San Diego at St. Louis Ditto. Following a rest day to themselves, the Dodgers have one more big shot to make a move if they haven't already.  
9/24 vs. San Diego at St. Louis    
9/25 vs. San Diego at St. Louis    
9/26 at San Francisco vs. Colorado Dodgers have won big games in San Francisco before, but they'd like to avoid the race coming down to this weekend.  
9/27 at San Francisco vs. Colorado    
9/28 at San Francisco vs. Colorado    

Comments (81)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-09-19 11:41:49
1.   gpellamjr
Powerless, I am missing so much. Five games in a row now. Ugh. At least things haven't deteriorated while I've been staring blankly at a wall by candlelight.
2008-09-19 11:42:52
2.   Eric Stephen
Because of the Buckeye Beatdown?
2008-09-19 11:46:26
3.   underdog
1 Are you in the Houston area?
2008-09-19 11:47:08
4.   cargill06
From last thread;

1050. Johnson
1044 You should have set it up like the batting title, where if a player doesn't get enough at-bats (or is it plate appearances?) to qualify, he can take an 0-fer in the number of ABs he is short, and if after the 0-fer he's still on top, he wins the batting title. You know, prevents a guy from outhitting his league by 40 points but coming up 5 ABs short.

So you could spot Carmona 11.2 (or however many it would be by the end of the year) scoreless innings. Not that your buddy would go for it - sounds like he's going to hold on to his money if he's got an out.

That's a very good idea, wish I would've thought of it at the beggining of the year. Fausto would need to throw 68.1 scoreless innings to catch him.

2008-09-19 11:48:18
5.   Tripon

Accuview has the Dodgers winning by 74% tonight.

2008-09-19 11:51:26
6.   Tripon
Somebody mentioned in the last thread about worrying about Maddux pitching tonight vs. Scherzer pitching for the Snakes at Denver. The thing is that Scherezer at best can only go for 6 innings like Kershaw since he doesn't have the arm strength to pitch longer. And the D'Backs bullpen is the biggest crapshoot of the contenders not named the Mets. D'Backs better hope they go in with a huge lead because that bullpen is going to explode in Coors Field.
2008-09-19 11:51:53
7.   Johnson
4 Well, you said Carmona's got two starts left? You'd better hope they're good ones!
2008-09-19 11:53:31
8.   Xeifrank
5. Last night when I ran my simulation of today's game, AccuScore (not AccuView) had the Dodgers chances at 69%. Now, I see they've upped them to 74%. My simulation had them at 72.18%. Vegas has upped them from 63.6% to 70.1% since last night. Glad to see they both wised up. :)
vr, Xei
2008-09-19 11:54:33
9.   Jacob Burch
After a blind ticket buy, I now realize that if things hold up as is, Game 3 will be Saturday the 4th, the same day as a concert I've been looking forward to for two months (Swell Season/Iron&Wine). I can't imagine the Dodgers would host anything but a Twilight game with the only other slated game being a Central/Eastern mashup.

This is the least-fun fringe decision of my life. Gah.

2008-09-19 11:57:50
10.   cargill06
7 I'm hoping, starting with Detroit at home tonight.
2008-09-19 11:58:11
11.   Xeifrank
9. Just Tivo the concert and go to the game.
vr, Xei
2008-09-19 11:58:32
12.   Bob Timmermann
1 2/3 IP for Zambrano today and he leaves with the Redbirds up 7-0 and 2 men on for Kennedy, who already hit a grand slam.

Kennedy asked for a trade today.

2008-09-19 11:58:34
13.   Eric Enders
4 That would never work. If I were betting with you, then I could win the bet just by picking somebody who's going to suck so badly that they never approach 125 IP. Let's say you take Billingsley and I take Mark Redman. Redman has a 7.54 ERA, but in only 45 innings. I still win the bet after you add in the scoreless innings.
2008-09-19 12:02:23
14.   cargill06
13 You could do the leader has the option of adding the innings or not. The whole reason we made the bet is he's a big Indian fan and actually thinks Fausto is good. I'm sure we'll have a similar bet next year, but he'll make me take Kershaw which is completely fine with me.
2008-09-19 12:08:26
15.   berkowit28
What's going on in Chicago? Zambrano gave away 7 runs, including a grand slam, in 1.2 innings, and has been replaced by Sean Marshall (who he?). Who gave away another run (he inherited two baserunners, one at 3rd). It's now 8-0 Cardinals, still 2nd inning, middle. Marshall got out of the inning leaving yet one more inherited runner at 3rd.

I guess we're not the only ones (re Wednesday night).

2008-09-19 12:13:58
16.   LogikReader

Looking back at that table, the Giants pitching did in fact give Arizona trouble, but dag-nabit, the Giants had no offense to back it up. Arizona is really the same team they were a week ago, except that Webb and Haren returned to form.

2008-09-19 12:15:01
17.   CodyS
Looking back at the prediction thread, I overestimated how good the hitting would be, but underestimated how good the pitching would be.

I predicted a runs scored / runs against of 780-690, and 91 wins. If they win the next 9 games by an average of about 14-7, I'll have made a great prediction!

2008-09-19 12:16:15
18.   MC Safety
15 Yes! I started Wainwright!
2008-09-19 12:19:44
19.   Bob Timmermann
Sean Marshall?

He's a friend of the Griddle.

2008-09-19 12:23:17
20.   scareduck
15 - the list of Cubs woes included giving up a grand slam to Adam Kennedy, who has been known to get hot around this time. :-) Zambrano was probably overthrowing; out after 1.2 innings, Big Z tied himself for the second-shortest outing of his career:

Shawn Marshall is playing mop-up man.

2008-09-19 12:26:09
21.   Gilberto Reyes
12 Maybe Adam Kennedy should have asked for a trade a little bit earlier in the season

He had 1 HR and 30 RBI in over 300 AB before today's game.

In the first 2 innings today he doubled his HR total with a grand slam off Big Z and added 5 RBI.

2008-09-19 12:26:54
22.   Tripon
Jeff (St. Louis): What would the trade market for Cano look like if the Yankees decide to move on? Would Ankiel, Bryan Anderson, and a Minor League OF prospect get it done?

SportsNation Jerry Crasnick: Jeff, Cano is coming off a terrible year, so the Yankees aren't going to get close for fair value in exchange for him. Plus, he just signed a four-year, $30 million deal. I think that would make some clubs hesitant about giving up a ton in return for him. There are some rumblings that Joe Torre would love to have him in LA -- particularly with Jeff Kent nearing the end -- but I would be surprised to see the Yankees trade Cano this winter.

2008-09-19 12:30:22
23.   Dane Bramage
6 D'Backs better hope they go in with a huge lead because that bullpen is going to explode in Coors Field.

Good point!...

2008-09-19 12:35:10
24.   berkowit28
19 Aha, thanks, Bob. Nice story, too.

However, you pointedly did not answer a family-related question (related to you, that is) on the Griddle a few days back (Our Man in Havana), so I hesitate to follow up. Or do you in fact prefer to answer questions here? :-)

2008-09-19 12:41:01
25.   gpellamjr
2 Are you referring to the football game or the remnants of Ike?

3 No, I'm in Columbus, OH. Workers from, I think, Canada and WV (all of the Ohio workers were in Texas, from what I'm told) finally got to my apartment complex on Wednesday and powered us up-- except a transformer blew in my building, and they won't come back for a few more days. I'm able to come to campus and check my email every couple of days.

2008-09-19 12:44:55
26.   JoeyP
Unless the Yankees have a better player in mind to take over for Cano, I dont see them dealing him.
2008-09-19 12:46:15
27.   Bob Hendley
The previous thread breaking 1,000 should appear in the record book with an *, as several posters seemed juiced (though fanerman was admittedly caffeine-less).
2008-09-19 12:49:30
28.   Bob Timmermann
I just thought my brother would answer.

Then I forgot.

2008-09-19 12:50:35
29.   berkowit28
In Chicago, Sean Marshall batted for himself (well, struck out for himself) in the bottom of the 3rd, then they immediately replaced him at the top of the 4th (where have we heard of something like that?) with Angel Guzman. who promptly gave up another run. Cards 9-0 at end of 4th.
2008-09-19 12:50:48
30.   LogikReader
Who are you calling juiced?* :)
2008-09-19 12:52:34
31.   Tripon
26 Orlando Hudson.
2008-09-19 12:53:36
32.   underdog
Music Thoughts: Finally downloaded Calexico's Feast of Wire album and it's fantastic. Gets me in the mood to write and I'm listening to it constantly. I love all their other stuff but this is particularly good. Some of it sounds like the soundtrack to moody neo-Westerns and film noir. Ahhh....
2008-09-19 12:54:21
33.   Alex41592
Seven defensive changes for the Cubs.
2008-09-19 12:55:06
34.   Alex41592
And I really meant six.
2008-09-19 12:57:05
35.   Jim Hitchcock
Hit it to Velez! He can't catch! Hit it to Velez!

I don't usually condone such a measure, but we are playing the Giants, and a playful beaning of the guy might be in order. Somewhere in the soft tissues (no, not the head!) like the gluteus minimus (he's too skinny to qualify for maximus).

2008-09-19 12:58:23
36.   berkowit28
28 Ah. So that must mean that the Cuba-visiting St. Louis Post-Dispatch sportswriter is the very same who occasionally writes in as bobsbrother, but presumably different from the Michigan-living sibling who is parent of nephew Dan in the Sean Marshall trip to Wrigley just pulled out of the archives? (Very soon I will have the family tree.)
2008-09-19 12:58:36
37.   Alex41592
I believe the Cubs will not clinch today. 11-0 Cardinals.
2008-09-19 13:02:19
38.   underdog
35 Or to Fred Lewis, for that matter.
2008-09-19 13:02:33
39.   Tripon
37 They'll clinch once the Brewers lose.
2008-09-19 13:02:35
40.   Bob Timmermann
Ask Daniel Zappala. He knows the whole family tree. Probably better than I do.
2008-09-19 13:02:59
41.   Bob Timmermann
Fred Lewis is out for the year after foot surgery.
2008-09-19 13:05:17
42.   cargill06
26 31 DeJesus Jr?
2008-09-19 13:05:29
43.   Jon Weisman
The Friday Night Lights season premiere screener has arrived ... in the cubicle next to mine! But I'm borrowing it!
2008-09-19 13:05:34
44.   Alex41592
The good news for FOX is tomorrow's games will mean something. They have both the MIL/CIN and STL/CHC games. So, there will be a lot of split screen action.
2008-09-19 13:06:06
45.   underdog
41 Well, then he'd be even worse out there in left.


From the SF Chron today, re the Giants vs. Maddux:
>>Their next shot comes tonight in the opener of the Giants' final road series of the year, at Dodger Stadium, when Maddux faces Barry Zito. There is one difference this time. The Giants have a secret weapon in Pablo Sandoval.

Maddux is a master at setting up hitters. In his brief major-league stay, Sandoval has proven he almost cannot be set up. Get him 0-2, throw a waste pitch and watch him drill it.

"Pablo has the best plate coverage of any young player I've seen," manager Bruce Bochy said.<<

2008-09-19 13:06:20
46.   Eric Enders
We should be nice to Velez since he beat the D-Backs singlehandedly in back-to-back games earlier this month.
2008-09-19 13:07:23
47.   Bob Timmermann
If the Brewers lose tonight, their maximum wins would be 92. The Cubs are at 92. So the Brewers would still be able to tie the Cubs.

The Mets and Phillies could both still win more than 92 games (they both could get to 95), which would force a playoff between the Cubs and Brewers in that case.

2008-09-19 13:08:56
48.   LogikReader
Is there a scenario where the Dodgers could have a better record than either the NL East team or the Wild Card team?
2008-09-19 13:09:21
49.   cargill06
My first poker thought comment of the month; has Arizona at 2.7% chance of winning the divison. In other words they're drawing to a 1 outer on the river (2.3%)

2008-09-19 13:11:00
50.   Bob Timmermann
It would involve the Dodgers winning a lot and the Phillies and Mets going into the tank.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2008-09-19 13:13:00
51.   Eric Stephen
If the Dodgers win out, they're at 89-73. The Phils and Mets are currently at 86 & 85 wins, respectively, and they don't play each other. So, it's possible!
2008-09-19 13:14:10
52.   Eric Stephen
they're drawing to a 1 outer on the river

A sound of clanging can be heard in my head right now. I really need to get into the math side of poker.

2008-09-19 13:16:06
53.   Bob Timmermann
I would add that this scenario relies heavily upon the Braves winning a bunch of games.

So it's sort of like drawing to a 1 outer on the river.

Not that I know what that means, but I wanted to sound cool.

2008-09-19 13:21:21
54.   Alex41592
I believe we have an alert in Chicago.
2008-09-19 13:25:26
55.   underdog
I guess Adam Kennedy just needed to demand a trade to become a snarling beast at the plate all of a sudden.
2008-09-19 13:30:47
56.   underdog
This trade rumor seems ludicrous to me.

I like Cain and all but Fielder and Hardy and another player for him? Dream on. Probably just Gammons idly conjecturing.

2008-09-19 13:44:06
57.   Lexinthedena
I hope that deal happens. I can't wait for the Giants to be good. Way more fun to hate them when they are relevant.
2008-09-19 13:44:25
58.   trainwreck
To the whole SF people hating LA thing, I grew up in East Bay and so many people I went to school with hate Los Angeles for no real good reason. And they aren't all sports fans or anything.
2008-09-19 13:44:57
59.   scareduck
Should we issue a yellow alert for Adam Kennedy? 4-for-5 with two singles, a double, and a homer (aforesaid grand slam).
2008-09-19 13:49:29
Don't know all of Calexico's stuff, but their collaboration with Sam Beam of Iron & Wine was excellent... also saw them together a year or two ago live and they really rocked.
2008-09-19 13:54:20
61.   Eric Enders
Calexico is so good. As is Iron & Wine. I'll be missing the last series of the season to see the latter (among others) at the ACL Festival. So hopefully this pennant race doesn't come down to the last weekend against the Giants.

Hey Nate, any thoughts on the new Okkervil River album? I just heard it for the first time today.

2008-09-19 13:55:46
62.   Xeifrank
58. That was my experience in my brief time living in the east bay. At the time I was there, they were the most pissed off about LA "stealing" their water. I think most of it stems from an inferiority complex. That's what comes with the territory when you are the 500lb gorilla on the block. There are some legitimate things not to like about LA, just as there are things not to like about the bay area. It serves no good purpose to hate a team, city, state or country based on ignorance.
vr, Xei
2008-09-19 14:00:18
63.   bhsportsguy
52 Knock yourself out

The quick and easy way is to use Phil Gordon's rule of 4 and 2. Which is to multiply the number of cards that will give you the desired hand by 4 on the turn and by 2 on the river. It is not exact but it is close.

2008-09-19 14:01:18
64.   Lexinthedena
I have a lot of family in the East Bay...They still aren't over Gibson 88 :)

I would think it's an inferiority complex, but it can't all have to do with size. After all, New Yorkers hate us too.

2008-09-19 14:02:04
65.   underdog
60 I'm telling ya, get "Feast of Wire" if you don't have it already.

And yeah, I love Iron and Wine, too, and their collaboration with Calexico.

61 Sounds like you and Jacob B will be at the same concert. 9

2008-09-19 14:03:29
66.   NoHoDodger

Here is all you need to know about California:

1) Bay area has a superiority complex and thinks that everything in NoCal is better than LA.

2) San Diego has an inferiority complex and thinks that LA treats it like a step child.

Don't get me started on the Westside/Valley issues.

2008-09-19 14:04:58
67.   Xeifrank
64. aren't New Yorkers like the French, they hate everyone. :) As long as we aren't hated by people from Delaware, right Bob?
vr, Xei
2008-09-19 14:06:06
68.   Gilberto Reyes
A lot of people in the media (including Plaschke in today's Times) are drawing comparisons to 1982 when the Dodgers came home on a Friday night with a 3 game lead over Atlanta with 10 games to play. We all remember how that season ended in SF with Joe Morgan's HR.

But one difference this year is that the Dodgers do not have any games left with Arizona, unlike in 1982 when the Braves played 2 games at Dodger Stadium. One of those games was a 4-3 loss in 12 innings where Braves closer Gene Garber pitched the final 4 innings to get the win. A win would have tied the Braves in the standings with 4 games left. Instead it was the 8th consecutive loss for the Dodgers and put them 2 games back with 4 to play.

I was working in the Dodger clubhouse that year, and that particular game was the one that really hurt the most before Forster's pitch to Morgan on the final day.

2008-09-19 14:06:29
69.   Xeifrank
The Cubs have the tying runner on base in the bottom of the 8th inning. Only problem is that that runner needs to score twice this inning to tie up the game.
vr, Xei
2008-09-19 14:11:31
71.   Jon Weisman
68 - Someone - it might or might not have been Plaschke - wrote that the Dodgers seemed tight in that final weekend in SF.

Here are the box scores of the Friday and Saturday games of that weekend. The Dodgers outscored the Giants 19-2.

2008-09-19 14:12:15
72.   cargill06
63 I've always wondered how true that was. I figured it was close enough that when I need a quick calculation at the table that's how I've always done it.
2008-09-19 14:12:34
73.   Xeifrank
70. Skirting rule 5 there.
vr, Xei
2008-09-19 14:13:59
74.   Jon Weisman
Add 71 - Dave Stewart got the save in the Dodgers' 15-2 win!
2008-09-19 14:14:16
75.   Bob Timmermann
Can't I go eat lunch and do a crossword puzzle sometime?
2008-09-19 14:18:01
76.   Jacob Burch
What a thrilling thread so far for me. Recap

65 Nah, he's going to Austin City Limits and garnering the envy of me. Both acts I listed will then be heading to the Greek a week later in LA.

If I were to head to ACL, the Must-See list would look like this, in order: David Byrne, Neko Case, Iron & Wine, Fleet Foxes, M.Ward, Beck, Yeasayer, Gnarls Barkley, Okkervil River (they can totally kill a show, in both ways. I've only seen the good side, but have heard dull reports before), Stars, Old 97s, Man Man, Robert Plant+Allison Kraus, Mates of State. A few of these are lower ranked (Swell, Okkervil, Man Man) because I'm not sure if they'd make for a good festival set. If they got full billing, they could be much closer to the top (I'm expecting Swell Season to play 90% of "Once" songs, where a full show it only garners 40%)

61 It's good but not as good as The Stage Names. A worthy addition to the discography, though

49 I few of us with emotional memories don't believe that's only 2.7 ;-)

"...Not Even Stevie Nicks" is one of my favorite songs of all time, but I have now and then thought Garden Ruin was their best effort to date over Feast. I go back and forth. I've yet to hear the new one, though. Their show with Iron&Wine is up there in favorites over the last few years (Along with Arcade Fire@Troubadour, Beulah@Troubadour,And Swell Season@Wiltern). The DC version of said show is available somewhere through NPR.

end wall of text

2008-09-19 14:19:45
77.   Bob Timmermann
Cycle alert canceled in Chicago. Stand down.

But since it's a Cubs-Cardinals game at Wrigley, I think any fans left there are likely going to stand down, aka fall over, on their own from the amount of beer they consumed.

The ones who get up will then start fights.

2008-09-19 14:23:10
78.   Gilberto Reyes
71 I did not travel to SF for that series with the team, but I do not think that they were tight. It was almost as if they had nothing to lose because they needed help from SD to beat the Braves at least 1 time in the final three games.

During the losing streak at home they were very frustrated, especially after losing the last 2 of the 8 straight losses in extra innings. But it was a veteran team that did not give up or seem to play tight in my opinion.

2008-09-19 14:24:39
80.   bhsportsguy
77 But then, Cubs fans are not the best fans in baseball.
2008-09-19 14:25:58
81.   Jon Weisman
73 - Agreed.
2008-09-19 14:26:40
82.   Jon Weisman
2008-09-19 14:31:36
83.   berkowit28
Why are there so many more day games at Wrigley than elsewhere? I believe they were the last, and very late, to get lights, but now that they have them, why so many day games? Do they think that the tradition there fills as many seats as night games would? Are they right - do the weekday day games sell out?

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