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About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

The Margins Take Center Stage
2008-09-22 08:12
by Jon Weisman

One leaping and two lunging catches Sunday deprived James Loney of three potential hits with runners in scoring position, and separately, Angel Berroa was waved home and thrown out at the plate with one out, two baserunners behind him and Manny Ramirez on deck.

Then in the 11th inning, a Giants pitcher steals second base and goes to third on a close-enough call at first base before scoring, and that's it. The Dodgers lose a 1-0 extra-inning game that otherwise would have given them five victories in their past eight attempts, just like they lose a 1-0 extra-inning game that could have meant six victories in their past eight attempts.

By these slim margins, slim as the margin that allowed Nomar Garciaparra's game-winning catch of an Arizona line drive on an earlier Sunday, grand fears are raised among the populace. By these slim margins, the recovery of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the demotion of closer Brandon Lyon and the Diamondbacks' six victories in the same eight-game stretch become meaningful.

An Arizona comeback has always been possible, just like a Dodger comeback was possible from the same deficit three weeks ago. But still, the Dodgers remain favorites. Going into Sunday's game, 15 results remained in the National League West race, and the Dodgers needed things to go their way in five of them. Today, 13 results remain, and the Dodgers need things to go their way in five of them. Arizona needs nine good things out of 13 just to forge a tie.

It's not about character flaws. It's all part of the ebb and flow of a 162-game season that wasn't over a week ago, despite what some people believed, and isn't over now.

Comments (187)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-09-22 08:27:32
1.   scareduck
Call it "historically unlikely".
2008-09-22 08:32:34
2.   Bluebleeder87
For entertainment purposes the 2 1/2 game lead only keeps me hungrier for more...
2008-09-22 08:35:42
3.   underdog
I admit I've had bad dreams that the Dodgers will have to beat Lincecum in the final game to make the playoffs, but know that that is quite unlikely. {gulp} One game at a time, take care of business tonight Dodgers, that's all.
2008-09-22 08:38:09
4.   MC Safety
I hate roller coasters.
2008-09-22 08:39:27
5.   Bumsrap
If the Dodgers wind up in a one game playoff with Arizona, I have heard on good authority that Fernando Valenzuela will start for the Dodgers, this time.
2008-09-22 08:41:02
6.   LogikReader
No game tonight, but hopefully the Cardinals can edge the D-backs tonight in St. Louis. Who wants to be the Designated Game Updater?
2008-09-22 08:41:38
7.   D4P
Who wants to be the Designated Game Updater?

We ask ourselves, "Why bother?"

2008-09-22 08:42:42
8.   kngoworld
take care of business tonight Dodgers

They will do just that, by getting plenty of rest and building up strength for the battles they face this week.

2008-09-22 08:42:42
9.   surfing slug

He can at least throw out the first pitch, since the game would be at Dodger stadium.

2008-09-22 08:46:55
10.   Eric Stephen
Unless the Dodgers use him in relief for two innings each on Friday & Sunday!

This year's Fernando would have to be Elbert, right? Starter pre-injury in the minors, pitches exclusively in relief this year, before (hopefully) being unleashed on the NL next season.

2008-09-22 08:50:09
11.   cargill06
There are so many balls Loney hits that when they first leave the bat you think are crushed. That you realize the ball is only going 270 feet, unless he bulks up or something I think it's going to be a struggle year in and year out to get above a .460 slugging.
2008-09-22 08:52:21
12.   cargill06
I maybe in the minority here, but I'm still not too concerned with the D'Backs. I'm less confident we'll clinch at home, but still think there is a pretty realistic shot of it happen.
2008-09-22 08:53:40
13.   Tripon

Boras blinked.

2008-09-22 08:56:41
14.   cargill06
Any word on Carmona suspension? He's scheduled to pitch again on Wed. still.
2008-09-22 08:57:48
15.   Eric Stephen
One of us is going to Trip On one of those links, man! is an awesome tool, and the preferred link tool of Dodger Thoughts. DT doesn't take American Express, unless your AmEx happens to be linked to your PayPal account! :)

Also, did Boras blink? He doubled the amount of guaranteed money for his client.

2008-09-22 09:00:00
16.   Im So Blue
This time, I'll give you guys 80 hours notice, instead of just 80 minutes...

You have another chance to see Danica McKellar this week -- on Thursday, 9/25 at 7:30pm, she's scheduled to be at Barnes & Noble at The Grove (in LA) to discuss/sign her latest book, Kiss My Math: Showing Pre-Algebra Who's Boss.

2008-09-22 09:01:43
17.   Bob Timmermann
I can buy that book and combine it with a trip to the American Girls store too!
2008-09-22 09:02:06
18.   regfairfield
13 I wouldn't call it blinking. You get way more money being on the 40 man than not. From what it seems like the articles saying, it looks like Alvarez can void the contract after 4 years instead of the usual six years of service time, that's huge. He'll be a free agent when he's in his mid-20s possibly.
2008-09-22 09:03:51
19.   Disabled List
Of the nine games that Arizona needs to go their way, they will have Brandon Webb (twice), Dan Haren (twice), Randy Johnson (twice), Jake Peavy and Tim Lincecum going in eight of them.

That should make Dodger fans swallow hard.

2008-09-22 09:05:11
20.   bhsportsguy
14 My guess is that if he is suspeneded, the Indians would prefer he take it now than carry it over to next year.

18 I think that is only if he is arbitration eligible, and since the Pirates can control that by just not promoting until the summer of 2010, it probably was a bone to toss in.

I have not heard if Alvarez can play anywhere else but 3B so I can't say what this means for Andy LaRoche.

2008-09-22 09:06:14
21.   underdog
8 Hah, oops, I meant tomorrow of course, though I guess they could go to St Louis and give the Cards a pep talk, or sneak some narcotics into the DBacks drinking water.
2008-09-22 09:09:09
22.   regfairfield
20 I've heard some people say his glove doesn't play at third, so probably first.
2008-09-22 09:09:25
23.   underdog
19 Do we need more reasons to swallow hard or worry at this point? I think we're sufficiently swallowing. One day at a time, people, one day at a time.
2008-09-22 09:10:29
24.   cargill06
19 Haren's only pitching once.

Of the 13 outcomes 5-8 is needed, save yourself some stress and don't get concerned until it's at .500.

2008-09-22 09:15:06
25.   Bumsrap
11 I have been wondering why Loney was hitting the ball so much harder last September than he is this September. He has always favored hitting to the opposite field and his stance and swing is custom made for doing that. Unless he changes his stance and swing he is not going to pull enough pitches to be a 20 to 25 homerun type guy.

Interesting that power usually comes with 27 years of age and hitting to the opposite field usually comes with more years if at all.

2008-09-22 09:15:06
26.   twerp
11 Don't have time right now to verify this, but didn't Loney have 7 or so dingers last Sept.?

Hasn't he been described this year as hitting a couple as far as Manny hits them?

He's the same player. Maybe the team is having him worry more about contact than power...?

2008-09-22 09:18:23
27.   MC Safety
12 I don't know. Zito shut us down Friday, why can't LeBlanc. LeBlanc is basically the exact same pitcher as Zito, sans the millions of dollars. Plus we face Peavy, AND Maddux is making another start. Add a surging Dbacks team to the mix, with a little Todd Wellemeyer thrown in. I can tell you I won't be partaking in any Italian food this week. Copious amounts of Tums are likely to be consumed.
2008-09-22 09:19:12
28.   Bluebleeder87

I don't know if it was 7 but I do remember him going on a mini home run tear last year right around this time.

man, yesterday when Aurilia got that hit, I was like dang.

2008-09-22 09:20:23
29.   underdog
Loney has also been facing some great pitching and has been hitting the ball hard, sometimes, as with yesterday's game, with nothing to show for it. I would like to see more power, too, but I'm not particularly worried about him as a hitter. Pitchers also make adjustments to young hitters, too, though good hitters make adjustments themselves in return and I think Loney does.
2008-09-22 09:23:29
30.   Alex41592
6 - I work until 5 but plan on watching the game when I get home. I'd like to be covering the game myself but I'll settle for coaches pressers this morning.

This last week there will be D'Backs updates up the wazoo. Tonight's game is at 5:15.

2008-09-22 09:26:02
31.   cargill06
26 I could be completely wrong I have no numbers to back it up, but unless he hits one down the line he hasn't been getting XBH's. It seems like he doesn't even have enough gap power to hit a ball over someones head in the gaps. When he does hit it in the gaps it seems that it's not hit well enough to get over anyone's head.
2008-09-22 09:27:54
32.   Zak
We all have to keep our collective cools. The things I try to remember when I think about the Dodgers

1. At any point in the season, except the last 3 weeks or so, any Dodger fan would have loved the idea of being 2.5 games up with a week to go. We are in as good a position as we can be in considering how the Dodgers have played all year. And I really don't mean that to sound negative.

2. We have Chad Billingsley going twice. That's huge. A lot of people are nervous about facing Peavy and Lincecum in those starts, but it is not unlikely that Billingsley can win at least one of those starts, if not both. Remember, this is the guy we want going up against the Santanas and the Zambranos next week. If push comes to shove, I think Billingsley will outpitch Lincecum on Sunday. I really believe that.

3. The Dodgers are playing well. You can point out to individual games here and there, but overall, the Dodgers have had a very good September. Lowe and Billingsley have pitched well. Manny is the best player in the NL right now.

So, let's sit back and enjoy this week. It is not unrealistic that the Dodgers might be one game up before Wednesday night. I hope people can keep their cools and remember, we don't need the breaks... the DBacks do. We just need to keep on keeping on.

2008-09-22 09:28:25
33.   Bumsrap
Loney's ground balls would get through the infield much more often if fewer of them were hit up the middle where, especially the second basemen, the middle infielders sit and wait. If he pulled a few more balls to the left of where the second baseman plays him, his stats would climb, or so it seems to me.
2008-09-22 09:32:04
34.   MC Safety
32 Arsenal's sitting on top of the table thanks to Stoke City!
2008-09-22 09:32:24
35.   Bumsrap
31 - He has shown the power to drive the ball into the gaps for doubles, just not lately. Is he tired or have the hitting coaches changed too much of his swing?
2008-09-22 09:33:56
36.   Bumsrap
Is today the last time this year we will see that 1/2 game thing in the standings?
2008-09-22 09:34:46
37.   LogikReader
It is, barring a rainout or other unforseen circumstances.
2008-09-22 09:35:12
38.   twerp
From last thread---

"The tradition of heartbreak we have here on the Dodgers is not just a phenomenon of the last 20 years. In fact, I think it goes all the way back to the Brooklyn days. Many years of coming so close, only to lose to the Giants or the Yankees, or what have you.

"It's frustrating all right, but after a while, I'm almost proud of it. If all they did was win, what fun is that?"

To me this is a bit over the top. The Dodgers have six World Series titles, behind only the Yankees and Cardinals. There've been other Dodger pennants and division titles as well.

Yeah, the Brooklyn Dodgers beat the Yankees in the Series just once. And the Gents have monkey-wrenched the Dodgers more than once--they of the zero WS titles since coming west.

But there are a lot of ML teams that would kill to have the Dodgers' post-season record. If possible, take the long view. No team or its fans are entitled to success.

Yeah, it's been a long time since there was much post-season Dodger glory. But the team is on the rise, and the future is bright even if the worst happens this year.

Does anyone have current odds on the Dodgers winning the West? Can Xei's simulator do that?

2008-09-22 09:38:23
39.   Disabled List
23 I don't mean to be sounding the panic alarm, but a week ago, people in here were talking about the division title as if it was a formality. I'm not seeing so much talk about playoff matchups and postseason rosters at the moment.

And I don't think the Dodgers are playing particularly well right now. We haven't had a really solid game since the Derek Lowe game in Pittsburgh last Tuesday. Even the 2 wins since then have been downright ugly.

This team needs to get its mojo back quick.

2008-09-22 09:40:55
40.   MC Safety
39 Spot on.
2008-09-22 09:41:13
41.   Bluebleeder87
thinking out loud here. with Kent & Furcal coming back a bit prematurely, I'm sure they'll be used in spot hitting situations only.
2008-09-22 09:41:50
42.   twerp
Isn't the Giants series the first the Dodgers have lost in a while?
2008-09-22 09:42:13
43.   Bumsrap
I think Manny should tell Torre that he will get a buzz if Torre does as well. Either that or Torre should wear dreadlocks.
2008-09-22 09:43:01
44.   regfairfield
38 95%

I feel a bit entitled to success since my biggest post season hero of my fandom is Jose Lima. I've been a Dodger fan for 20ish years now and gotten absolutely nothing out of it. The only teams worse off than us in my lifetime are the Royals, Brewers and Expos. It's entirely reasonable to want some success.

2008-09-22 09:44:12
45.   bhsportsguy
42 Since the National's sweep 8/26-8/28. The Dodgers had won 6 series in a row since that time.
2008-09-22 09:45:02
46.   Bluebleeder87

I think XeiFranks machine can do that but i'm not sure...I do know that a few days ago somebody posted the odds from some other website & they were pretty high, something like 98%

I'm probably a little lower now though.

2008-09-22 09:48:38
47.   Bluebleeder87
I just did the calculations, I've been a Dodger fan for exactly 21 years.
2008-09-22 09:48:55
48.   LogikReader

Yep, I don't disagree with any of that. I certainly am not trying to play the "woe is me card." Teams could have it much worse than the Dodgers. They draw 3 million fans a year, tend to always finish above .500, and made the playoffs a handful of times in each of the last 3-4 decades.

I was just trying to show that there is no "curse" or some other voodoo that somehow prevents the Dodgers from greater success since 1988.

2008-09-22 09:50:14
49.   underdog
39 Oh believe me, I'm as superstitious as can be in times like this and wasn't taking anything for granted even earlier last week. Nothing is for certain and I'm worried -- but still optimistic. I would also like to see them - if they do make the post-season, go in with some momentum instead of just crawling in because the DBacks were worse, that won't get me very optimistic. But I have faith in them.


Btw, this may have been posted earlier, sorry if it was, but read the K Brothers (on LA Times blog) also wondering about Eric Stults, on the heels of Jon's wondering about him:
>>Eric Stults has been sucked into the vortex of the pennant race, a man without a role. There haven't been many chances where Torre felt comfortable using him, namely games with wide margins in either direction. Some of the more recent ones have gone to James McDonald, in an effort to get him a little experience. As such, because Stults hasn't pitched, it's harder to find opportunities for him to get in the game. Rust begets rust. Not sure why that happened- he's been a reasonably reliable arm- but that's the situation. It's not uncommon at this time of year for players to fall in the cracks. At least he's gettin' paid, and is still able to avail himself of the pre and postgame spreads.<<

2008-09-22 09:51:34
50.   D4P
I think it's probably fair to feel that the Dodgers have underperformed relative to their resources. It's not as if we have no reason to think the Dodgers should be better than average. They are in one of the biggest markets with one of the biggest payrolls. They should be good, and probably should have been better than they have been.
Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2008-09-22 09:53:21
51.   bhsportsguy
It appears that Peavy's start has been pushed back to Thursday, his son, whose birth he attended over the weekend was in intensive care and there was a concern that Peavy could not prepare in time.

I have a hunch that it is possible that Black could just wait to pitch him at home over the weekend, especially if Peavy does not rejoin the team tomorrow.

2008-09-22 09:53:30
52.   Bluebleeder87

i'm is IT'S.

I'm still a little tired from my trip to S.D. it still mind boggles my mind that Eric commuted from S.D. to L.B for a year, wow.

2008-09-22 09:53:35
53.   cargill06
38 has the Arizona at a 6.7% chance of winning the divison.

On Friday morning they were drawing to a one outer on the river. They picked up a few more outs over the weekend, they're now drawing to a 3 outer on the river (6.8%)

2008-09-22 09:54:11
54.   underdog
50 Agreed. But separate from the Andruw Jones story, injuries to their potential team MVP Rafael Furcal a month into the season, as well as to Penny and Saito, shouldn't be discounted when we're talking about '08 disappointment (if this season can be called a disappointment, which I wouldn't). For prior year disappointment, a mixture of bad signings, some transition years, Fox ownership, injuries, the wrong managerial hirings and just the ebb and flow of power have all played a part.
2008-09-22 09:54:55
55.   underdog
51 That bit of luck could almost make up for Matt Holliday sitting out this past weekend.
2008-09-22 09:57:01
56.   Bob Timmermann
You may wish to use a different word than "luck."
2008-09-22 10:01:16
57.   twerp
44 If a Dodgers' fan doesn't want success--and success every year--why would he or she bother? But are the Dodgers and their fans really entitled to success any more than any other, usually far less successful team?

What I'm trying to address is so much hand-wringing over something which apparently has better than a 90% chance of happening.

If it doesn't, it's not necessarily anyone's fault. Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you.

The odds for Dodger success beyond winning the West couldn't be nearly that high. But the West title is a ticket to the playoffs, where as the Cards and a couple others have shown recently, good things can happen.

2008-09-22 10:01:46
58.   Eric Stephen
The Dodgers have six World Series titles, behind only the Yankees and Cardinals

The Athletics have won 9 titles, spread out over Philadelphia and Oakland (sorry KC).

2008-09-22 10:05:49
59.   Eric Stephen
As great as it is to possibly miss Peavy, or at least delay his start, I would not wish his predicament on anyone. I hope his baby is OK.

But then again, I spent considerable time in ICU and an incubator when I was born (I was 2.5 months premature) and I turned out alright!

OK, bad example.

2008-09-22 10:06:52
60.   cargill06
51 This has nothing to do with my personal rooting interest in teh NL West, but how could you ask Peavy to pitch? It seems like the best thing for the whole situation is to take the rest of the season on off and be by your wifes side at a time like this.

I'd be saying the same thing if he was scheduled to pitch against AZ.

2008-09-22 10:07:26
61.   Eric Stephen
When did you come to SD?
2008-09-22 10:07:56
62.   Bob Timmermann
It apparently stunted your growth.
2008-09-22 10:10:14
63.   bhsportsguy
57 If this was Mets talk or Brewers talk, Baseball Toaster might have shut down over the last few weeks.
2008-09-22 10:12:04
64.   Eric Stephen
If you can believe it, I was a mere 4 lbs, 5 ounces at birth. I have a picture somewhere of my aunt holding me with my head in her hand and my feet didn't make it to the fulcrum* of her arm.

*I forgot the name for the back side of the elbow.

2008-09-22 10:14:19
65.   MC Safety
55 Was Hurdle doing that as a favor to Arizona? Or was Holliday's back really hurt?
2008-09-22 10:14:46
66.   Bob Timmermann
I was a mere 9 1/2 lbs at birth. I think I had hair and a hump and I was nicknamed "Richard III" in the nursery.
2008-09-22 10:18:52
67.   D4P
I weighed 8 pounds 15 ounces at birth, and at age 20, was 5'8", 130 pounds. (I started lifting weights at that age and gained weight).
2008-09-22 10:18:59
68.   bhsportsguy
Thanks to LAT, I was able to see this person up close and personal at yesterday's game.

2008-09-22 10:19:22
69.   Xeifrank
7 games left for the Diamondbacks, 6 games left for the Dodgers for a total of 8192 permutations. Of those 8192 permutations the Dodgers win the NL West 86.6% of the time, the Diamondback win the NL West 4.6% of the time and 8.8% of the time there is a tie (games are not weighted). Split the division ties in half and the Dodgers win the division just under 91% of the time. Pecota and SportsClub stats weight the remaining games, based on strength of schedule and have the Dodgers chances at 94.77% and 94.2% chance of winning the division repsectively. To put that in perspective, the in game win expectancy calculator says a home team heading into the 9th inning with a 2-run lead has a 94.5% chance of winning a game. So our chances of winning the NL West are very similar to the chances of winning a game in the 9th inning with a 2-run save opportunity.
vr, Xei
2008-09-22 10:20:21
70.   kinbote
51 Put me down for wishing the best for Peavy and his son. Baseball's almost meaningless when viewed against that background.
2008-09-22 10:20:31
71.   twerp
50 54 Agreed. And arrival of this group of young players begins the reversal of long-term Dodger underperformance--we hope!

At least one MLB scout said this year that the Dodgers have the most talent of anyone in the NL--before any midseason additions.

Management is entirely capable of screwing it up. But so far the young core remains.

2008-09-22 10:20:42
72.   bhsportsguy
69 The great thing about this is that the games still have to be played.
2008-09-22 10:21:13
73.   Kevin Lewis
What is the name of the back side of the knee where it gets really sweaty on long car trips? I still remember my brother waking up my younger sister by sticking her hand in the sweaty cavern from the 12 hour car ride.
2008-09-22 10:21:55
74.   bhsportsguy
71 I don't think that is true nor do I recall any scout saying the Dodgers have the most talent.
2008-09-22 10:22:11
75.   Bluebleeder87
i was there the 19th, 20th & came back the morning of the 21st. Next time I go I'm gonna have to do a little more site seeing, it looks like a really nice place.
2008-09-22 10:23:58
76.   Xeifrank
72. No, they've already been played. Bud Selig has the results on his desk in a black envelope with a big red X on it.
vr, Xei
2008-09-22 10:27:45
77.   Bob Timmermann
Along with the third secret of Fatima and the instructions on how to set up the BCS.
2008-09-22 10:28:37
78.   Eric Stephen
Dodger Duos w/200 IP & 130 ERA+
2003 - Nomo, Brown
2002 - Brown, Park
1985 - Orel, Fernando
1980 - Reuss, Sutton
1977 - Hooton, John
1974 - Marshall*, Messersmith
1964 - Drysdale, Koufax
1960 - Drysdale, Williams
1949 - Newcombe, Roe
1927 - Petty, Vance
1899 - Kennedy, Hughes

The only Dodger team with a trio of such pitchers was the pennant winning 1916 squad, with the trio of Jeff Pfeffer, Larry Cheney, and Rube Marquard. That squad lost the World Series to a Red Sox team led by some 21-year old pitcher named Ruth (who only batted .000/.000/.000 in the WS).

2008 Dodgers
Derek Lowe - 208 IP, 134 ERA+
Chad Billingsley - 192.2 IP, 137 ERA+

2008-09-22 10:30:55
79.   bhsportsguy
77 And the names of all 11 herbs and spices.
2008-09-22 10:31:20
80.   Eric Stephen
Hopefully he doesn't lose them like David Stern misplaced the NBA Finals scenario!
2008-09-22 10:31:21
81.   Xeifrank
78. Good detective work! For a gold sticker, what other 2008 teams have a shot at the feat?
vr, Xei
2008-09-22 10:32:26
82.   Eric Stephen
And the formula for Coca-Cola*

*Selig mostly adheres to the formula for New Coke™ for most of his decision making.

2008-09-22 10:32:31
83.   Bluebleeder87
So it looks like the odds are still in our flavor.
2008-09-22 10:33:58
84.   cargill06
69 What are the odds in the Az @ StL game tonigh?, My off shore bookie tells me AZ is -119.
2008-09-22 10:35:35
85.   Bluebleeder87

Derik Lowe always ends the season really well & IF we make it to the playoffds, I really like our entire pitching staff.

starters & bullpen alike.

2008-09-22 10:36:13
86.   Eric Stephen
Webb (140) & Haren (139) are there.

Cleveland and/or Milwaukee could qualify depending on how CC is counted, to team with Lee or Sheets. :)

No one else. I thought the Cubs would qualify; they have Dempster, but Zambrano is sitting on 184 IP and a 120 ERA+.

2008-09-22 10:36:51
87.   Xeifrank
Vegas -119, or 54.3%, my simulator is at 54.6% and AccuScore had 49% chance (AZ winning tonight).
vr, Xei
2008-09-22 10:38:35
88.   Disabled List
78 Interesting that Koufax & Drysdale only did it once.
2008-09-22 10:39:12
89.   Eric Stephen
The best part about that Wiki page is that there's a category listed for "Allegiance."

Thankfully, unlike D4P, Admiral Mullen's allegiance lies with the USA. :)

2008-09-22 10:41:02
90.   cargill06
87 I'm sure this is the only game AZ will be favored also.
2008-09-22 10:41:37
91.   underdog
56 Sorry, I should apologize to the Peavy family, too. That was unintentionally tactless. I should not post before actually being, you know, awake. Best wishes to them.

Btw, did we ever hear any word on Ethier's new baby -- presumably all's well there. Just curious.


Off topic, but Leonard Nimoy's appearance on NPR's Wait Wait Don't Tell Me yesterday was quite amusing; can get the podcast of it if you missed it. Being a Trekkie isn't required, but will make it even funnier.

2008-09-22 10:43:58
92.   Eric Stephen
Did Nimoy's appearance mimic Shatner's epic SNL skit during which he told conventioneers to "get a life"?
2008-09-22 10:46:13
93.   Louis in SF

Do the simulations take into account the team records this year. I understand that the Dodgers are clearly in a better position with the lead. However, Arizona head to head against Colorado this year, I think they are 13-3, while we are 8-8 with the Giants, and playing the last three in SF.

2008-09-22 10:46:23
94.   MollyKnight
60-I was thinking the same thing. How on Earth could Black ask Peavy to pitch when his newborn is in the ICU? Seriously, that's nuts. I hope he comes to his senses.
2008-09-22 10:47:16
95.   Eric Stephen
2002 - Brown, Park

That should be 2000, not 2002.

2008-09-22 10:48:44
96.   underdog
92 Hah hah, no, he was much more gracious about all that, though the others were trying to bait him into it. But he was quite amusing. (He also raved about the upcoming Star Trek movie, though he's a little biased towards it.)


Oh, from previous thread, train, sorry, no on that trade proposal. I'm sure Marshall will cool off at some point, but wow.

I remember thinking Ashley Lelie was gonna be a great wideout, and he looked like he might for one season. He runs poor routes though and is so inconsistent. Maybe he'll be good again though; can be a good deep threat. Walker's just a mess, so much talent there though.

2008-09-22 10:48:49
97.   Xeifrank
93. It's a simulation that plays a whole game 10,000 times, using most likely lineups, starting pitcher, HFA, splits etc... There is no need to know what the records of the teams are. That would apply more towards a log5 solution.
vr, Xei
2008-09-22 10:50:47
98.   ToyCannon
Do the percentages change if Broxton is pitching without the look as opposed to Saito, or if Brandon Lyon is pitching instead of Qualls?
2008-09-22 10:51:19
99.   underdog
94 And after I was awake I was wondering that as well. Baseball is so low on the totem pole comparatively. I was going to say especially when your own team is out of the playoff race but that has nothing to do with it either. Should be excused either way.
2008-09-22 10:51:24
100.   Xeifrank
93. Sorry, read your question incorrectly. I believe those sites take records into consideration, but not sure if it's total record vs H2H against the team they are playing. My guess is it's a log5 calculation to weight each game.
vr, Xei
Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2008-09-22 10:52:55
101.   Xeifrank
98. I figured I'd probably get a Chan Ho Park response to that line. :)
A serious answer would be that it's an empirical percentage. So adjust slightly depending on who the closer is.
vr, Xei
2008-09-22 10:53:42
102.   Alex41592
There's nothing to play for so Peavy can take all the time he needs and should deal with what's most important. But, if it helps him to pitch then that's what he'll do. For selfish reasons I really wanted to see Billingsley vs. Peavy but come on there's no comparison. Family first.
2008-09-22 10:56:45
103.   cargill06
101 I wonder how the percentages would change if the Dodgers missed Peavy? You said we're 91%, I'd guess maybe in the low 92% range?
2008-09-22 11:05:15
104.   Xeifrank
103. If given the likely pitching matchups for the rest of the Dodgers and Diamondbacks games, i could try to figure it out. You'd also have to tell me who to throw in in Peavy's absence.
vr, Xei
2008-09-22 11:06:18
105.   Bob Timmermann
I still have bad memories of Tim Stauffer.

I think he's out of baseball now.

2008-09-22 11:06:53
106.   cargill06
LeBlanc tomorrow, Estes Wed, and TCY on Thur.
2008-09-22 11:07:24
107.   Gilberto Reyes
A few bright notes for the doom and gloomers...

By losing yesterday, the Dodgers will be able to keep their game faces on without any lengthy breaks, unlike the Angels who are playing meaningless games for three weeks. Staying fresh and playing important games every day seemed to work fine for the Rockies last year and the Cardinals in 2006.

By losing two of three to the Giants this weekend the Dodgers will now be able to covert their 94% chance of winning the division in San Francisco. Clinching at home would be nice, but celebrating another NL West title in the Giants house will be just another response to Barry Bonds' pirouette at Dodgers Stadium.

2008-09-22 11:08:01
108.   delias man
These teams want to beat the Dodgers so bad that they are willing to ask Peavy to pitch in this situation, and have Lincecum add another meaningless outing to his young arm. Hurdle sitting Holliday.... What did we do to deserve this? Finish behind them too often in the standings?
2008-09-22 11:08:10
109.   cargill06
106 My mistake it looks like Geer would pitch on Thursday.
2008-09-22 11:09:19
110.   Bluebleeder87
man, if the Dodgers clinch at home I HAVE TO BE THERE!
2008-09-22 11:10:50
111.   Bluebleeder87
We're the Yankees West...

plus, we live in a cool city like L.A.

2008-09-22 11:14:14
112.   Bluebleeder87
I'm a believer that once you get into the playoffs anything can happen but it sure wont be easy, if anything, the rooks will learn alot by it.
2008-09-22 11:16:17
113.   Eric Stephen
The meaning for Lincecum and the Giants is to possibly add to his win total and increase his Cy Young Award chances.
2008-09-22 11:18:03
114.   JoeyP
106--The Padres official site has moved Peavy to Thursday, starting against Maddux.
2008-09-22 11:19:38
115.   Bluebleeder87
From Dodgers dot Com "Saito closer to returning to closer" [ ]

"I think [Saito's] more emotionally equipped for that because he's done it," Torre said. "That's been his primarily role. I'm comfortable with Brox, but again, once Saito gets there, we have a little more length. Brox, I think, has done a fine job in the closer's spot."

if your Broxton how do you feel about reading that?

2008-09-22 11:20:19
116.   KG16
107 the Angels aren't playing meaningless games. They are trying to get home field advantage. They also have the added luxury of being able to play a few more of their younger players, which means less wear and tear on their main roster guys that they will need in the playoffs.

The earlier you clinch, the better.

2008-09-22 11:22:02
117.   KG16
108 - if the roles were reversed, wouldn't you want the Dodgers to still run out their best line up and starters?
2008-09-22 11:22:31
118.   Bluebleeder87

our chances would have increased if he were going against Bills, oh well.

2008-09-22 11:23:40
119.   KG16
115 - if I'm Brox, I say, "ok, fine, whatever we need to do to win."

The fact is, Brox is considered the closer of the future, while Saito is the closer of the present. Players shouldn't lose their jobs because of injury, unless you're talking about a Gerhig situation, which is incredibly rare.

2008-09-22 11:24:56
120.   Xeifrank
116. Yep, and with Tampa Bay's home/road split, HFA is very important. Best to enter the crapshoot with a pair of loaded dice.
vr, Xei
2008-09-22 11:27:16
121.   Xeifrank
119. So the question should be, is Saito any less effective due to the injury and or lack of work? I can't answer that question, but with such high leverage games on the docket, this isn't really the time to be playing with fire.
vr, Xei
2008-09-22 11:28:32
122.   Michael D
Forgive me if this has been discussed but Baseball Prospectus mentions that the Mets want to trade Castillo and would even pay a large part of his salary to get it done. Any possibility we swap them Pierre for him and maybe send some cash to cover the difference in salaries? Castillo still walks a decent amount so if he can get his BA up his OBP should be acceptable. Even as is, batting .250 his OBP is still higher than Juan's. If his defense isn't terrible we got ourselves Kent's replacement and we can let Dewitt take over 3rd.

Don't know if the Mets are that serious about getting rid of Castillo, and I know he's the not the sexiest option but it plugs two holes without increasing the salary so we can go after whatever big free agent.

2008-09-22 11:29:02
123.   underdog
Happy birthday to a certain young member of the Weisman clan!
2008-09-22 11:29:47
124.   Bob Timmermann
The Angels games could be considered meaningless only because they are playing the rest of the AL West.
2008-09-22 11:30:21
125.   kinbote
107 I'm going with whatever Gilberto Reyes says. A few weeks ago--you can look it up!--I gave up on the team after we lost that first Arizona game. G.R. immediately shot back with a "We can beat Webb & Haren so don't despair"-type reply. He was dead on. (And yes I'm ashamed to be one of those who gave up--100% guilty as charged.)
2008-09-22 11:31:09
126.   Bob Timmermann
I think Dodgers fans would come to dislike Castillo as much as Mets fans do.
2008-09-22 11:31:25
127.   Bluebleeder87
I'm sure it's not a big deal at all, Saito more than earn his closer spot, Brox most likely will be our closer next year or the fallowing year.
2008-09-22 11:33:41
128.   Tripon
115 If I'm Broxton, I'd shrug my shoulders, say I enjoyed my time as closer, now lets go back to work. Broxton knows he's the future closer, and he also knew that if Saito was healthy, he'd return to being the 8th inning set up man.
2008-09-22 11:38:22
129.   Gilberto Reyes
116 120
I think entering the playoffs with momentum or on a hot-streak and being mentally prepared is more important than home field advantage.

Good example - Rockies 2007

Bad example - Dodgers 2006 (Beimel parties in NYC and misses playoffs)

2008-09-22 11:39:18
130.   Jon Weisman
123 - Scooped again! I knew I should have run with that story first thing!
2008-09-22 11:40:35
131.   Eric Stephen
And yes I'm ashamed to be one of those who gave up--100% guilty as charged

My brother was in Arizona on August 30th, there for the weekend with his family, and had 2 tickets -- already purchased -- to the Dodgers' game against Haren. After the Friday night loss to put them 4½ back, he decided not to go to the game. His surrender was complete.

2008-09-22 11:40:51
132.   Jon Weisman
129 - I could be wrong, but I think studies have shown that regular season momentum has no effect in helping your playoff chances. I suppose there are exceptions.
2008-09-22 11:42:08
133.   regfairfield
129 The 2006 Cardinals certainly backed into the playoffs. The 2007 Phillies made up like six games in nine days and got bounced in the first round.
2008-09-22 11:43:29
134.   scareduck
No matter what I say, the Dodgers manage to confound me. Nevertheless, the NL East and Wild Card teams are looking awfully mortal right now.

* The Phillies have been winning just enough to put them back on top of the East, while the Mets' bullpen implosion Sunday was typical of the way they lose.

* The Brewers do not have Ben Sheets for the rest of the year, period. There is serious talk of starting Sabathia on three days' rest on consecutive starts, and that's just to reach the postseason.

All the Dodgers have to do is to win enough and let the calendar pages fall.

2008-09-22 11:45:42
135.   JoeyP
The commodities market is nuts.
Oil's up $25 dollars today & its based entirely (IMO) on traders getting out of their contracts (all of them shorted at the beginning of the contract and have to buy the commodity back now to cover the position) & speculation over the bail-out.

Still, really incredible.
I'd say the same cycle will begin tomorrow with every trader shorting oil (since this gain today is almost entirely artificial).

I'm usually almost 100% against govt regulation in markets, but there needs to be something installed to halt the volatility. Its only healthy for the traders, not anyone else. The NYMEX did have a $10/day move cut-off point, so they shut down trading for a bit today then upped the limit $20/move.

Just insanity.

2008-09-22 11:46:50
136.   Bumsrap
Wade could be the closer next year and the rotation could be Billingsley, Sabathia, Broxton, Kershaw, Elbert.

Perhaps in a dream one might see Kuroda, Saito and Pierre traded to Seatle (do I have the guts to include Jones) for Putz and Beltre.

2008-09-22 11:52:12
137.   scareduck
135 - the previous decade or so was unusual for the absence of volatility. The volatility we're seeing now is far more normal.

One of the funny things I saw last week was the big rush by certain large companies (G.E. was the biggest example) that had high-stakes financial wings to get themselves covered under the government's short-sale ban when they weren't at first listed.

2008-09-22 11:53:04
138.   JRSarno
55, 65 - LaRussa better not shut down the Pujols this week.
2008-09-22 11:53:29
139.   Gilberto Reyes
125 I felt strongly that Arizona was not good enough to run away with the division at that point, and that the first game was incorrectly called a "must win game" by many.

132 You are probably right. And momementum can shift quickly in a series. The two runners thrown at at home on one play in 2006 seemed to really push the series in the Mets direction.

133 But Philly got bounced by an even hotter team (the Rockies).

2008-09-22 11:53:39
140.   Xeifrank
132. You are not wrong.
vr, Xei
2008-09-22 11:55:11
141.   scareduck
135 - the alternate explanation (which I would give a lot more credence to) is that the government has indicated with its buyout that it plans to prop up housing prices one way or another. The only realistic way it can manage that now without painful deflation (which will still have to happen in bankruptcy court) is to inflate the heck out of the currency. Dollars start chasing hard assets in that environment.
2008-09-22 11:58:04
142.   Tripon
The following three names are being bandied about in the Yankees' clubhouse for center field next year: Nate McLouth, David DeJesus, and Matt Kemp. DeJesus seems the most reasonable target, though Robinson Cano could be part of a package for Kemp. DeJesus, it should be noted, played a poor center field this year according to the plus/minus system.

The Yanks are going to give us A-Rod, and pay his salary too right?

2008-09-22 12:00:23
143.   Jon Weisman
I wasn't even aware until Rob Neyer noted it today that the Tigers might finish last in their division.
2008-09-22 12:01:10
144.   Zak
34 MC Safety, your Gunners looked really good this weekend. They could have scored 5 in the first half. It's always nice to get a tough road win out of the way and be top of the table, but to be fair, Liverpool, Chelsea and Man U. have already played one game against a big 4 team, whereas Arsenal hasn't. Also, Man U has played two of those on the road. That's always good when they go on their usual 15 wins in a row streak.

What do you think about Bendtner? I always hear bad things about him, but he always seems to score. Also, Denilson is doing a lot better than I thought he would. Looks like he will be real good in a year or so.

2008-09-22 12:03:00
145.   Disabled List
142 Jon Heyman loves the Cano-for-Kemp rumor almost as much as Gammons loves the Varitek-on-the-Dodgers angle:

Folks around the team suggest Cano's old manager, Joe Torre, has a strong interest for the Dodgers. A Cano-for-Kemp trade would be intriguing, and one AL official said he believes the Dodgers might consider moving Kemp (though it isn't known whether they'd entertain that very trade idea).

2008-09-22 12:03:15
146.   D4P
Tigers might finish last in their division

But 3rd in team salaries...! So at least there's that.

2008-09-22 12:04:04
147.   Gilberto Reyes
143 What a huge disappointment after making that big trade for Cabrera in the off-season. Many had them as a lock for winning that division.
2008-09-22 12:04:23
148.   BiggO
129- gettimg two guys thrown out at the plate in game 1, that killed any mometum they had.
2008-09-22 12:04:25
149.   Zak
I wish Peavy and his family all the best with their new baby. Hopefully it's nothing and the baby will be home soon and Peavy will be pitching soon.

We went through a tough time last year with our new baby and I wouldn't wish that on anyone. Just thinking about stuff like this makes me want to get off my seat and do something to help.

2008-09-22 12:06:54
150.   cargill06
It'll be interesting who StL will hand the ball to in the 9th in this series. My guess would be Jason Motte, in 7 IP this year he's got 12:1 K:BB ratio, and has yet to allow a run. He's the same pitcher that K'ed 14.9/9IP in 66.2 AAA IP this year.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2008-09-22 12:06:55
151.   scareduck
147 - and yet their pitching went south. Detroit is 11th in rotation ERA, and 12th in relief ERA. Unreal.
2008-09-22 12:07:04
152.   Jon Weisman
Aside from my usual irritation with rumors, I wish just one of these writers would not be so NY-centric and let me know if they really expect the Dodgers to have a Pierre-Jones-Ethier outfield next year.
2008-09-22 12:07:05
153.   Tripon
145 Yeah, an AL team who doesn't talk with the Dodgers at all think the Dodgers might want to trade a guy who doesn't even hit arbitration until 2010 and plays adequate to good CF, and is blossoming into a star for... Robinson Cano. Oh, and nobody asked what the Dodgers think about this.
2008-09-22 12:08:58
154.   scareduck
142 - because all other teams exist merely as a farm club for the Yankees, right?

This weekend's endless coverage of the Final Game At Baseball's Greatest Cathedral was about all I could stand.

2008-09-22 12:13:41
155.   Kevin Lewis
Speaking of Kemp, why isn't he batting 4th in the lineup?
2008-09-22 12:14:05
156.   underdog
154 You don't want to hear "New York, New York" one more (or 12 more times)?
2008-09-22 12:14:42
157.   Gilberto Reyes
148 Agreed.

Other Dodger post-season plays that I can remember which altered the series momentum irreversibly...

1977 - Phillies blow lead in 9th in Game #3 (Davillio bunt, Mota double, Lopes beats throw)

1978 - Reggie's hip in World Series

1988 - Gibby's HR

I'm sure there are more that you all can remember.

2008-09-22 12:15:25
158.   Tripon
155 I'd advocate a Kemp, Martin, Ethier, Manny top of the order myself.
2008-09-22 12:19:41
159.   Kevin Lewis

I could get on board with that order

2008-09-22 12:19:42
160.   Gilberto Reyes
151 The 2008 Tigers and Rays are great examples of what a difference great pitching can make.

The Rays went from worst to first in pitching and their record followed.

Detroit proved that bad pitching will sink a good offense.

2008-09-22 12:22:33
161.   Disabled List
I was at Yankee Stadium last night, although I didn't get inside the ballpark. Scalpers were selling bleacher tickets for $500 a pop. Instead I ended up watching the game at one of the bars across the street. It was packed full of Yankee diehards, of course, and it was very cool to watch the pre-game ceremony with that crowd. Yankee fans do not lack passion, that's for sure.

The biggest cheers, by far, were for Bernie Williams and Paul O'Neill. To me, that would be like Dodger fans, back on Opening Day, saving their loudest cheers for Eric Karros and Jose Lima. Weird.

2008-09-22 12:23:17
162.   twerp
74 71 "I don't think that is true nor do I recall any scout saying the Dodgers have the most talent."

1) I'm guessing the "not true" part refers to saying management is entirely capable of screwing things up. I didn't say it would. So far it hasn't, at least as far as trading the young core of the team. I believe the focus is on adding onto that core. But I don't have enough confidence to be sure some really bad move or moves can't happen, trades or otherwise. My comment was intended as cautionary, not pessimistic.

I think Ned's been a mixed bag. I've been critical of him but also defended him, actually probably argued more for fairness than anything else.

And I'll give him kudos for the midseason additions. I think you may have been the one who mentioned Ng said the Manny deal was pretty much Ned's baby, despite stuff out at the time that Frank did it himself. Yeah, Ned traded some youngsters. But, as was said at the time, you have to give to get. Without those moves, especially Manny, the team probably doesn't get where it now is.

You have to admire Ned for rolling the dice. He could have played it safe and not taken any chances, not risked getting farther in Frank's doghouse. He really surprised me with the bold Manny move, since his earlier trades mostly involved tinkering around the edges.

2) As far as "not recalling" any scout saying the Dodgers have the most National League talent, I don't recall exactly where I read it. It was only a minor item, wherever it was. The scout wasn't named, which is understandable. Seems like it may have been in early summer. But I definitely did read it--somewhere, from a source I thought credible.

No offense taken, but I try to know what I'm talking about. I don't make stuff up. ;)

2008-09-22 12:24:15
163.   68elcamino427
Great posts - this one and the previous one.

Not surprised by the outcomes of the Giants games. Have seen it too many times in the past. Dodgers get to wrap things up with them too (Joe Morgan - meh).
Let's hope the Dodgers take care of business before the next trip to "Frisco".

Note to Ethier: Congrats on the new additon to the family - now get back into the groove:)

2008-09-22 12:30:45
164.   Harold M Johnson
re: batting order, Martin's OBP is .379 and .337, which seems like a big enough difference to keep Martin at the top of the order. I actually really like having Manny batting 3rd after Ethier, but I could also see something like:


especially vs. LHPs.

2008-09-22 12:30:51
165.   Gilberto Reyes
163 Jon's recent posts have done a great job of keeping people on an even keel. Don't get give up on the team too early, but don't assume the race is over when they are ahead.
2008-09-22 12:31:05
166.   Harold M Johnson
Sorry, the second OBP is Kemp's.
2008-09-22 12:32:22
167.   Brian Y
I could actually see Kemp getting packaged before he hits arbitration in 2010 along with one of Ned's albatross signings like Pierre and/or Jones considering the Yankees have only Gardner, Melky, Damon, and Matsui that can play OF and Damon/Matsui are much more of a DH these days. I think Ned will rid himself of some payroll concerns by taking on an inferior player like Cano for a Kemp/Pierre/Jones combo assuming the Yankees pick up a lot of salary in the deal.
2008-09-22 12:37:21
168.   underdog
Guys, I'm trying to eat lunch -- enough of the Kemp to NY for Cano nonsense. I have to keep my food down here.
2008-09-22 12:38:12
169.   scareduck
161 - doesn't Bernie Williams hold the major league record for most postseason hits? That's really not comparable to what Karros did.
2008-09-22 12:39:08
170.   Gilberto Reyes
What leads anyone to believe that Ned would trade Matt Kemp?
2008-09-22 12:39:44
171.   jasonungar07
Count me as one who is stoked and thankful we are 2 1/2 up with 6 games left.
2008-09-22 12:39:55
172.   Bluebleeder87

Angelino's would ask for his head.

2008-09-22 12:40:26
173.   scareduck
125 - I see nothing to be ashamed about. The Dodgers weren't a very good team before Manny, and it's not entirely clear that they're that good a team with him, either.
2008-09-22 12:40:53
174.   ucladodger

No. Ned isnt dumb enough to do that. I dont think anyone is dumb enough to do that.

2008-09-22 12:43:38
175.   Disabled List
169 Speaking of opportunity-dependent records, Eric Karros is the LA Dodgers' all-time HR leader.
2008-09-22 12:45:11
176.   Tripon
174 GM's who are dumb enough to make a Kemp for Cano trade.

Jim Bowden, Brian Seabaen.

2008-09-22 12:47:18
177.   cargill06
No. Ned isnt dumb enough to do that. I dont think anyone is dumb enough to do that.

If you can't re-sign Furcal and Mil calls you and says Kemp for Hardy straight up, could you really tell them no? There's been no rumor of that what so ever but Kemp isn't the untouchable player people are making him out to be.

2008-09-22 12:48:10
178.   Disabled List
176 ... Ned Colletti.

I think the Kemp+albatross for Cano scenario in 167 is very plausible.

2008-09-22 12:50:36
179.   Gilberto Reyes
173 I would call the Dodgers a potentially dangerous team if they make the playoffs with Manny. They seem to ride his emotion. He has been red hot since his arrival and he has more post-season HRs than anyone in ML history.
2008-09-22 12:50:46
180.   Tripon
177 Hardy is a better player than Cano at the moment.
2008-09-22 12:53:20
181.   Harold M Johnson
I felt like before the season, the Dodgers were a slightly above .500 team and that the Dbacks were going to be really good.

After watching (pre-Manny) I thought the Dodgers were just about a .500 team, because of the strength of their pitching.

Manny gives them a few more wins, putting them above .500 and (hopefully) getting them into the playoffs. As stated above, Manny is a beast in the playoffs historically and I think we'll see that continue. Combined with great pitching, the Dodgers will be very dangerous in the playoffs. The biggest hole I think will be defense.

2008-09-22 12:53:29
182.   MollyKnight
I don't think Manny will go to the Yankees. I don't think he wants to deal with the circus ever again. It's possible Scott Boras could push him in that direction, but I would think Manny would try to see how much $$$ he could get out of the McCourts before he did that. I could also see him landing in Seattle.
2008-09-22 12:54:06
183.   cargill06
180 My mistake, I got confused. I thought the statement was saying no one would be dumb enough to trade Kemp. Didn't realize he was linking it to dumb enough to trade Kemp for Cano.
2008-09-22 12:56:14
184.   regfairfield
160 Look at the difference in the team's defensive numbers. That's the main reason for the Ray's ascension.
2008-09-22 12:56:18
185.   Gilberto Reyes
178 No way Ned makes that deal. And if he tries to, someone else in the organization would block it. Kemp is not untouchable, but that deal makes no sense for the Dodgers.
2008-09-22 13:03:39
186.   Jon Weisman
2008-09-22 13:04:38
187.   scareduck
167 - If there has been any constant of late, it seems that it's not so much that the Dodgers are running into fiscal constraints due to cash flow as Frank McCourt is cutting up Ned's charge cards. Frank bought the L.A. marathon, after all, and this on his own nickel. I don't see the Dodgers in a position where they would be forced to move Kemp to get salary relief; if anything, it's the other way 'round, in that they need to keep as much good young talent as possible.

175 - non-sequitur. Regular season home runs are a function of the opportunity of being a starting player in the major leagues.

182 - agree completely. My guess is that the Dodgers have a 40% chance of re-signing Manny, which is pretty good considering all the teams out there who could use him. Realistically, the Dodgers' competition is something like the Angels, Yankees, Mets, Mariners, and Orioles, and distantly, the Giants and Cubs. I don't see the O's picking him up, as they have a reasonably cheap and effective outfield, and the M's, O's, and Giants all are too far away from contending to interest Manny. The Angels' payroll has been steadily expanding for some time, and I don't see Arte picking up Manny given his lack of wiggle room.

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