How do the Dodgers keep getting involved in cheesy music?

Hollywood Joe got LATed in a bad way. He needs to repost here :)

2 Great story by HJ.

i would have been much better off if i had never seen that video. Luckily, I only made it to "...bade mistakes, I've made a few" before stopping.

Oh those glasses on Yeager are classic.

Does anyone have a link to video of vins call of the Gibson homer? I've been looking for the past half hour and can't find it.

I teach high school, and my school is having a special dodger party on friday at 1:30! I want to show the Gibson homer to get them pumped!

6
Tony Jackson owns the rights to the Scully call of the Gibson home run in the 1988 World Series. It bothered him that much that he wrote NBC a big check.

I didn't realize til now that Joy Johnstone looked like a sort of goy-ish Jerry Seinfeld.

Oh the pain, the wonderful, horrible pain!

I am now embarrassed to be alive.

6 Not only do you get the clip, you get that great Roy Hobbs/Kirk Gibson piece.

http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/la/history/50th/index.jsp

That is just wrong on so many levels. Had to be Johnstone's idea right? I was pretty young but am I wrong in thinking he craved attention far beyond the limits of his playing ability?

11 It was pretty common back then for athletes to try and sing.

Unfortunately for the '70s and '80s Dodgers, they were in the midst of some pretty bad music and dress styles.

10 I was wrong, no spliced in cuts of the Natural but it is still a nice piece.

There is an interview of Mike Lupica, nice glasses.

thanks for the Vin Scully link. Do his calls of the games on radio get streamed on the internet anywhere? I'd love to listen to him during the LCS.

jon, that made my day. hilarious!

Fair?

Russ > Ruiz
Loney Burrell
Kemp Werth

Lowe = Hamels
Billingsley > Myers
Kuroda > Moyer
Kershaw > Blanton

Bullpens
Dodgers < Phillies

America Has Talent 70's style. The foursome that never heard: YOU'RE GOING TO HOLLYWOOD!!!

(Don't know if someone posted this earlier -- if so, sorry).

Boras says 5 years/85 million.

Source Rocky Mountain News:

THANKS, BUT . . .

Manny Ramirez had an impact with the Dodgers, where he had 53 RBI in the 53 regular-season games after being acquired from Boston, and went 5-for-10 with two RBI in the Dodgers sweep of the Cubs In the National League Division Series.

Ramirez has been on a good behavior, trying to redevelop a free-agent market after his pouting session that helped him for his way out of Boston.

Word, however, is that the Dodgers realize he doesn't fit their long-term needs. A defensive liability in a ballpark that puts an emphasis on defense doesn't compute over the long-term, and Ramirez is looking for a five-year deal. Owner Frank McCourt already has an expensive education on the problems of signing free agents with the likes of Jason Schmidt, Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre, and will be hesitant to go overboard again.

Agent Scott Boras has let it be known through his media outlets that the expectation is for at least five years and $85 million in a deal for Ramirez.

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/oct/06/postseason-insider-beckett-says-his-ok-others-thin/?partner=RSS

14 On MLB Gameday Audio (subscription required).

6 You can also purchase 1988 World Series Game 1 on iTunes for $1.99

16 I have no idea why but a bunch of stuff got cut off...

Russ vs. Ruiz. Dodgers
Loney vs Howard. Phillies
DeWitt vs Utley Phillies
Furcal vs. Rollins. Phillies
Blake vs. Feliz. Push
Manny vs. Burrell. Dodgers
Kemp vs. Victorino. Phillies
Ethier vs. Werth. Dodgers

Bench- Dodgers

I like how baseball was represented by old dorks.

19 Let me add that Gameday Audio is a really good deal, for $15.00 you get to hear any game through the net from Opening Day to the end of the World Series.

[20} Didn't realize how bad Feliz was offensively.

Blake vs. Feliz- Dodgers.

As you can tell, I really need this series to start ASAP.

HJ's post at the end of previous thread is one of the best I've read here.

19 22 cheers

Here's my rotation that I don't think will go through.

Lowe
Bills
Kuroda
Lowe (3 days rest)
Bills (normal rest)
Kershaw
Lowe (normal rest)

I'd never pitch Kuroda on the road at this point. I also think Kershaw matches up better against the Phillies lineup. Lowe matches up well against the Phillies park, so I think having him pitch there twice is important.

25 I agree. My mom used to cut out game stories and Jim Murray and send them to me when I was at summer camp. That was cool.

20
I think the Dodger bullpen is much better then the Phillies. Durbin/Condrey are lucky pitchers who we will be lucky if they pitch any substantial innings. With Kuo back we can go Wade/Kuo/Saito/Broxton. Wade has been lucky but his lucky just takes him from unbelievable to good, while Durbin/Condrey are actually lousy pitchers. Romero is basically Beimel and if he comes in to face Ethier expect to see a walk instead of an out.
Lidge is awesome but the key will be the bridge to Lidge and I think the bridge is shaky.

Add Hollywood Joe to the list of this site's best writers.

That was indeed terrific, H-Joe. Come back in here and take a bow.

29 You make a lot of good points, but I made that claim with the assumption of not truely knowing how healthy/effective Kuo and Saito will be.

18 - "A defensive liability in a ballpark that puts an emphasis on defense ..."

Somebody hasn't been watching Dodger Stadium baseball the past 46 seasons. The Dodgers have often gotten by with mediocre left fielders.

By popular request - thank you for your kind words....

I was 10 years old on October the 7th 1977, my Mother surprised me that day so long ago and made it a day I will never forget.

School was something I did in between playing ball and I was at the age when baseball becomes less something my father watched and more something I understood in my own way, 10 years old was about the time that baseball became my game and it has been that way ever since.

With the day game approaching and me beginning to understand the magnitude of what the post-season meant and how special your few chances at October are, I was prepared to stay close at hand with my beloved Dodgers no matter what the circumstances (or consequences). With a small AM transistor radio stuck deep in my pocket and with an ear piece hidden inside my shirt, I would stealthily choose my spots for quick updates which I would scribble down on a sheet of paper close enough for my best friend to see the score. It was not the first time I used that strategy, day games seemed to be more frequent back then and I never got too far from the sound of Scully even at that age.

The school yard was buzzing with excitement that October morning, fall in the Valley was warm and windy and full of possibility. I don't remember all that we spoke about as we waited for the morning bell to ring but I do recall hatching a plan to lobby our 5th grade teacher to use the AV equipment to watch the game. We knew the TV in the back of the room worked because she often had us set it up to play "The Electric Company" on channel 28 when she wanted to sit in the back of the room drinking coffee and reading her Ladies Home Journal. As with most of our plans that involved adults during that time of our lives the request fell upon deaf ears, looking back our powers of charm and persuasion were not quite developed and our overwhelming excitement and pleading could not have been seen as a good thing in her elderly eyes. There would be no baseball and no talk of baseball while class was in session, she quickly made that clear.

Resigned to my fate and yet comforted by the radio hidden my pocket pressed against my leg, I was prepared to listen as I could and catch the highlights on the TV news later that night. The clock moved slowly. I was unable to think of anything but baseball as I fidgeted at my desk and sketched small flip books of crushing swings and balls flying over fence in the corners of my notebooks. Recess came and went with a blur and still the day dragged on like an old dog on a hot day.

Sometime in that void between the joy of recess and the promise of lunch a student monitor came into our class room, these were the days when messages were still largely hand delivered by the best students of the 6th grade. We stirred in our seats and thought nothing of the note handed to our teacher, things like this were common enough then. As my teacher opened the folded white paper and read it silently, I saw her look in my direction, look down and read again, and look up again at me. My mind raced, "what could I have possibly gotten caught for?" I thought to myself, everything and anything that I could be guilty of within recent memory flashed in front of me – I was truly panicked for there were more than enough things that I was guilty of to warrant some serious consequences should they hit the light of day. Everything from spit wads, to the radio, to pitching quarters in the boys bathroom at lunch, and that's just the stuff I feel comfortable telling you about now.

"Please don't let it be me, please don't, please, please, please" was the sound of my mind reaching out for mercy somewhere above. My teacher calmly folded the note and handed back to the monitor, without an ounce of emotion in her voice she said aloud my name. Oh god, it was me.

She told me to collect my belongings, that my Mother was here and taking me out of school for the rest of the day. Glory hallelujah! I am saved, I am delivered. I knew in an instant that this was no punishment this was salvation. My mother, swayed by my love of the Dodgers, was here to bring me home to watch the game. I tried not to gloat and did what I could to maintain my behavior (and smile) as I quick grabbed my things and floated towards the door.

In the years that have passed so many days that I spent in school, at work, doing the right thing…so many of these days have faded into the black void of memories lost, but that day, when my Mother allowed me to play hooky, that day remains with me always. I remember…
My Mothers smile as I broke into a run when I saw her at the office, burying my face into her stomach and wrapping my arms around her so tight.
My Mom making me a hot waffle sandwich filled with ice cream, possibly the most delicious memory of my youth and letting me eat in front of the television (something she frowns upon to this day).
The Dodgers losing late and my chest being tight, the pain and anxiety which I have come to know as "dread" in my adult life
The improbable joy of Vic Davalillo, a name that I hold dear to this very day and a reference that I drop to people of my age and when they recognize the name I realize I may have found a friend.
The heroics of Manny Mota, on a team full of stars someone who I loved then for reasons I still don't know why
The clutchness of Bill Russell. I have come to not believe in clutch as a concept, but Bill Russell will always be clutch for me
The magic of victory snatched from defeat (the pain of defeat snatched from victory was a lesson soon to me taught to me by the hated Yankees but for this day I was yet unspoiled)

Many days have been lost to the ravages of time, but that day is always my day, an everlasting gift from the love of my mother to the love of this game.

I just called and told her this story.

33 Or the last 2 months. You know all that bad defense in LF has our backs up against the wall now.

34
Hollywood Joe, that was an outstanding story!

Until today, I had never heard of a hot waffle sandwich (with or without ice cream, a ha).

Wow, on the same way the Reds give up on Patterson, Kenny Williams says he needs speed at the top of the order. Kenny, Ned. Ozzie, Juan.

34 awesome. go blue.

Good stuff Joe...

http://tinyurl.com/3ubeay

Pretty cool Dodgers video, first posted on the Dodgers.com message board.

37 It just may work, I mean Kenny thought Ken Griffey Jr. is still good and still can play CF so I'm sure he thinks Juan Pierre can play.

problem: If Manny is a mediocre defensive left fielder.

answer: You live with it, and make sure everyone else on the field is either above average, or stellar. Which I think the Dodgers have done this year. Blake, DeWitt, Kemp, Ethier are all above average. While Martin, Loney, Furcal are all above above average.

Ned, Ken, Ken, Ned. Crede for Pierre?....I'm cool wid it.

42 Ethier in RF this year and last year is -1. He ranked 30th last year among RF's in allowing baserunners to advance and 23rd this year, to call him above average maybe a bit generous.

Casey Blake is -10 at 3B this year and last.

Joe Crede is already an FA this off season. And last I checked, baseball teams aren't allowed sign and trades.

37 - That really could work. The White Sox have Josh Fields that is always ready to bust through, they just never give him a chance, ala LaRoche w/o the injury bug. If we got either Fields or Crede for Pierre that would be stellar.

43 Fine with me too.

Crede, Furcal/Hu, DeWitt, and Loney should be a very good defensive infield at least.

44 Plus or minus system?

I always wonder who wold be the average fielder in that situation would be? Is he mythical?

White Sox need an SS. Its more likely they're in the Furcal sweepstakes.

44

Do you have that number for DeWitt? I think that he has been pretty awful defensive 2nd baseman but that seems to go against the opinion of the group. Also is there any Dodger who is considered good on the + - system, heck how about any Dodger's in the plus (seriously)? I guess Furcal probably does, but this team looks fairly bad on defense to me.

Are people still considering Russ Martin stellar (or even well above-average) on defense? I gave that up awhile ago, gold glove or no. He's good enough to play there for the long haul, but my opinion has gone down on him significantly.

50 DeWitt is a +11 at 3B which ranks 6th among 3B which is very good considering the limited time there. He was a -4 at 2B, but it is a realitvely small sampe.

Furcal was a 0 this year, +6 last year, +4 in '06.

I really hope Furcal stays, the Dodgers are so good with him and Manny in the lineup.

52 Makes you appreicate even more how good the pitching has been with a bunch of average to below average defense out there.

52 How does +/- handle defensive switches in late innings?

Who here really believes in defensive rating systems?

I don't know enough about them to have an opinion, but DeWitt and Casey Blake, who imagine rank pretty low, have seemed pretty good with the glove.

55 There are surely people here better suited to answer this question that I, but I believe it looks at the plays you make at the postition you are playing. So if you play 2B for 7 innings and 3B for 2 innings it looks at all those plays for those 7 innings and puts it in your 2B stats. Than the last 2 innings at 3B it puts with your 3B stats.

56 I read about the +/- system and it seems pretty solid. The only question I have is it doesn't account for the speed of the runner, but over the course of a season maybe they figue it evens out.

52

Wow I didn't realize that he was so valuable at 3rd, do other defensive metrics support that? Based on the + - system was he the Dodgers best fielder in 2008?

I remember the Dodger version of "We Are the Champions." It was like four male Linda McCartneys.

I propose a moratorium on any talk of offseason moves until the playoffs are done.

58

Why do you believe that it does not account for the speed of the runner? I am under the impression that the plays are graded based on the likelihood of the out being recorded, and therefore the speed of a runner would definitely be considered, but I have been wrong before.

Toy, Cargill et al, which do you think are most likely:

A - Billingsley shutting down Phillies offense
B - Kuroda shutting down Phillies offense
C - Myers shutting down Dodgers offense
D - Moyer shutting down Dodgers offense

?

How about:

1 - Phillies light up Billinglsey
2 - Phillies light up Kuroda
3 - Dodgers light up Myers
4 - Dodgers light up Moyer

? I'd also say that Blake vs Feliz is a push, and at this point so is Ether v Werth. To me, it seems like both teams will pitch around the other one's best bat, Howard for the Phils and Manny for the Dodgers, so the rest of which team's offense is more likely to pick up for them?

Of course, if HCK(G) is in uniform for the Dodgers, all bets are off...

(and how long has DT been trying to trade Juan Pierre to the ChiSox? As long as Steve has been gone?)

58 - the +/- systems seems rather subjective too me. Who is to say that "any other player at that position" would get to a ball. At least that's my understanding of the system.

Personally, I don't put much faith in defensive metrics. Too many inherent flaws. I'll take scouting reports and what I can observe.

Like outfielders allowing runners to advance, if you're constantly catching balls at the warning track, you're going to have more runners advance than a guy catching them in shallow right or in right-center.

Say what you will about Jeff Kent, But I really respect the comment he made in Tony Jackson's article yesterday:

"How you keep your attitude, your personality up, is we all still love the game," Kent said. "We all still love to win. We all still love to play it, whether you're physically in it or not, you still play the game in your mind. It's not hard."

Is Kuo replacing McDonald on the roster, or Ozuna? Personally, I'd replace both McDonald and Ozuna with Proctor and Kuo. I rather have too many bullpen arms than too little, and if the game comes down to having to actually let Ozuna field, than the Dodgers are in big trouble already.

Oh, man, RIP Lloyd Thaxton. I can remember dancing to his theme song at a very young age.

Oh, man, RIP Lloyd Thaxton. I can remember dancing to his theme song at a very young age.

Whoops, 67 got lost in cyberspace for a spell there.

Its the battle you have all been waiting for.

ANDRE ETHIER VS JAYSON WERTH.

OT:

I know this really belongs on The Griddle, but last night's game is a dead thread. So I'm putting this here:

King Kaufman's column today, in which he argues that Willits really shoulda been called safe.

http://tinyurl.com/4o24rs

Thoughts?

64

Yes it certainly is subjective but at the same time you prefer to rely on scouting and observation, isn't what you observe also subjective? Is that you think that the people involve in the plus minus system watch less baseball than you, or that they lack knowledge of the game? As for scouting, scouting reports only concerns abilities not results so I don't know how that helps. No system is prefect but this one seems to be as good as it gets, and you can always cross reference with other systems that are decent.

66

How about if the game comes down to Kent's ability to score from 2nd on a single? Personally I would drop Park before McDonald or Ozuna.

71 My thoughts are that Varitek had possession of the ball at the time he made the tag, the ball didn't shake loose until his glove hit the ground. The real question is:

Are the Angels still the best "fundamental" team in baseball when Aybar doesn't even use proper bunting mechanics in that situation?

72 I have been told that pitchers can actually run.

73 In the article, Kaufman doesn't disagree that that's what happened. He agrees with that version of the events. He says that Willits STILL should've been called safe, and that the rulebook needs to change to reflect that.

In other words, a good call of a bad rule.

What Kaufman implies but doesn't say is that if he was the ump, he would've called Willits safe even with the current rule.

73
I was of that opinion as well, but if a runner trying to score plows into the catcher, and the catcher tags the runner but loses the ball after his glove hits the ground the runner will be called safe.

In my example though, I guess it could be argue that the runner initiated the contact (whereas the catcher did last night) although I'm not sure how relevant that part of the argument is.

Bottom line: I think he was safe, but I can be persuaded either way.

Read the column. Check out his examples -- the Cory Hart example and the George Bell example. He makes an interesting case.

76
I refer Mr. Stephen to the case of Dottie Hinson v. Kate Hinson, 1944.

Why do people considering Wade "lucky"? Is it because almost all hitters make contact off of him? Is it his periphs? I don't get it.

78
Hinson vs. Hinson would have been a better movie than Kramer vs. Kramer.

I think the probelm with comparing the rules for catching to tagging is that in proving you have caught the ball you must come out of the situation with the ball under control. In proving you tagged someone you must go into the situation with the ball in control, what happens after the tag is irrelevant. It can be likened better to a force out where the ball is dropped in the act of throwing. The out is made, what happens after that is immaterial.

Eric Karros's daughter is in her first year at Loyola Marymount and she is on the basketball team.

Man, I am old.

79
Yes, that's pretty much the entire argument. Opponents hit .224 on BABIP; that's hard to keep up over time.

63
Toy, Cargill et al, which do you think are most likely:
I'll take A here
A - Billingsley shutting down Phillies offense
B - Kuroda shutting down Phillies offense
C - Myers shutting down Dodgers offense
D - Moyer shutting down Dodgers offense

?

How about:
I'll take D here
1 - Phillies light up Billinglsey
2 - Phillies light up Kuroda
3 - Dodgers light up Myers
4 - Dodgers light up Moyer

If Burrel has shaken off his 2nd half slump that changes things quite a bit. He was such an automatic out in Aug/Sept that it was easy to pitch around Howard. Moyer is the kind of pitcher who doesn't fair well in the postseason. If the Dodgers don't light him up I'll be disappointed, but then again Mr. Davis had some serious luck against us. Wouldn't shock me at all if this goes 7 games. The Philly offense is scary but at the same time I'm loving this Dodger offense at the moment. A healthy Furcal and a rested Martin give the top of the lineup some spice. Ethier will need to deliver because he's going to see lots of baserunners.

It is amazing that no one is arguing that Kemp is better then Victorino. My he's come a long way since being a Rule 5 player twice. I've come down on Depo for giving him up but really the Padres made the bigger mistake when they took him during his 1st Rule 5 venture and then let him come back to us.

81
That's the best argument I've seen for Willits being out. Consider me swayed.

72 - I readily admit that my own observations are subjective. But I at least know what my own subjectiveness is. Whereas I don't know the subjectiveness of those who do the +/- ratings. I don't know if they take into account shifts or double play depth or any of the other things that result in a player being a step or two towards the bag that they would not otherwise be. There are too many variables for such a simple system to adequately measure.

74

So do you have no value for speed? Given the amount of off days that we have and that we will only need 3 or 4 starters is there really any value in having 12 pitchers?

I guess neither situation will add much to the team but my opinon is that Ozuna speed is more likely to become a factor than a 12th pitcher in what I can only imagine would be in a long extra inning game.

My understanding of the +/- system is this, long story short every play (that at least on person made at your postion) has a point value, every play you're either gaining or losing points. The point value is based on the % of time the time the play is made on average at the major league level. The example they gave is a "slowly" hit ball the shortstops right (they have the field broke down into hundreds of sections) is made into an out 26% of the time. If fielder "A" makes that play he is rewarded with a +.74 if he doesn't he recieves -.26. They assign a point value to every ball hit and the velocity of each ball (Hard, medium, soft for infield. Flyball, fliner, liner for outfield) Add up the point total and round up or down and you got your +/- number.

Like I said my only question is, if Carl Crawford hits that ground ball the out expectency should be much lower than if Pat Burrell hits it. But my guess is maybe they figure that stuff evens out during the course of a season.

83 - is it really that difficult for a pitcher to keep a BABIP down? If he continually throws pitches that hitters can not make good contact with, thereby inducing ground balls and pop flies, wouldn't that bode well in his favor?

79
For example the next Dodger is Lowe at .29, so Wade is well below the average. On the plus side he's been so good that even some regression to norm will still have him with a sub 4.00 ERA. My worry is that his luck will run out at one time in a big moment. Something like 4 or 5 seeing eye singles or bloops. My fingers are crossed it happens next year on opening day and that whatever pixie dust he's wearing right now does not wash off with Champagne.

34 I am late to the party, but great story.

I thought I invented hot waffle-ice cream sandwiches when I was a kid but clearly your mom did it before me. I figured if a waffle cone was so good why not use two fresh waffles.

89 Wade has a LD% of 21.4% and a very low BABIP when you compare that to Billingsley's 19.9% and a very high BABIP you can see the luck there.

Mariano Rivera has a BABIP of 23% this year just like Wade. However his historical number has ranged from 25% to 33%.
I can write a check to the bank that Wade will not be below 25% next year.

All right. `World Without End' by Ken Follett was released in paperback today. The wait for the sequel to `Pillars of the Earth' is over!

WHOA!

NBA legend Elgin Baylor's long reign in the Clippers' front office has ended, and Coach Mike Dunleavy will also assume the position of general manager.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-clippers8-2008oct08,0,5332501.story

Whoa, Luke Walton has a stalker?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3630879

I guess he's really hit the big time.

88

Ok so I see where I was wrong and you were right regarding the speed of the batter.

86

So you wont trust any non perfect system, seems too black and white for me but hey you have every right.

96
Let's see:
1) rich
2) plays for an extraordinarily popular team
3) in the public eye a lot

Sounds like a good case for stalking.

'plays' might be a little bit subjective there. Luke Walton's the 12th man on the bench most days.

85 It was actually hard for me to watch last night, my wife and her newfound interest in baseball (life-long Angels fan) was heartbroken when that squibber rolled into RF in the 9th. We rode the emotional rollercoaster that was the game last night.

1. Bad Halo D: 2 cheap runs (upsetting)
2. Hunter's single ties it up (elation)
A. I've never heard my wife cheer so loud and triumphantly
3. The missed squeeze (shock/disbelief)
4. The cheap single to win it (sucker punch to the gut)

It served to remind me that our Dodgers are in a very volatile position as I will be crushed if they don't give a good showing in the LCS. If anything, my wife has slowly become a Dodger fan and now knows the starting lineup (and positions) along with the rotation. So boo on no Freeway Series but here's to hoping our boys in blue do something special.

86 I know they take into account "enhanced outs". Basically if Jim Edmonds plays to shallow and can't get to balls over his head that most every major leaguer gets to, it is weighted more heaviely. Instead of those balls being expected outs they are now 2b's and 3b's and those are weighted more severly than a ball a 2B doesn't get to up the middle becuase that's a single.

I read one reason Joe Crede is rated so high among 3B is because he plays so close to the line and cuts down more 2b's than any other 3B but he struggles on balls to his left, but those are singles he's not getting to and cutting down a lot of 2b's and 3b's

98 Darnit. See, I don't have any of those things checked off, so I guess that's my problem right there. Is there a place online where you can requisition a temporary stalker? I think I might get an entourage first, and then later get a stalker. Seems like the way to go.

99
Not many 12th men play in 74 games or are 6th on the team in minutes/game.

99 I don't remember Walton being the Lakers 12th man last season. Seemed he got more PT than that. Are you thinking of Chris Mihm or DJ Mbenga or Ira Newbie or Coby Karl or what?

We are all dumber and worse off as people for having seen that video.

News for those of you with XM.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Home Team Feed: XM 183
Away Team Feed: XM 184
ESPN Radio Feed: XM 189

104 Okay, I may be exaggerating. But as the playoffs went on, Walton's MPG were shrinking. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/waltolu01.html

That he couldn't start over Vlad Rad was terribly disappointing. Mostly because Vlad Rad is a horrible player.

thats amazing, I didn't even realize you could buy Dodger games on Itunes

Thats what I don't understand. Wade's curveball is absolutely electric. If hitters can't make good contact on it ALL year, why is Wade still being considered lucky? Just because they hit weak ground balls or pop flies does not mean all of a sudden they will start finding holes or will start hitting homeruns, especially if it hasn't happened all year so far.

Basically, what I'm trying to say is this:

Wade is not lucky anymore, he is GOOD.

If his curveball still has the bite it does next year as it does this year, I expect Wade to be just as good as he was this year...if not better.

109 Maddux and Glavine made HOF careers off of weak contact. Let's hope Wade keeps his command over everything else. His deuce is nasty though.

109 And what the people are saying the absolute greatest pitchers of all time haven't been able to maintain a BABIP of .23. Warren Spahn, notorious (I believe?) as one of the best "hit it weakly" pitchers, had a career BABIP of .265.

You have to think about how these percentages are--engrained in Cory Wade's DNA is a "real" BABIP, the number batters would hit if he could hit into a million situations over and over and over.

What Toy Cannon (who has put it best so far) is saying is that unless Cory Wade is the greatest pitcher of all time with a pixie curve, after his (hopefully long) career his BABIP will not be .235. If he's Warren Spahn good and gets the sample size, somewhere there has to be an equal measure of around .3 to hit him back to the mean.

We want very much for that .3 period to not be in the playoffs.

109 ,110
Maddux's BABIP has fluctuated from .248 to .331 throughout his career.

Glavine has gone from .252 to .325.

Fluctuation happens.

109
I expect Wade to be just as good as he was this year...if not better.

There's a good chance Wade will in fact be better next year, but his numbers could be worse because his BABIP will fluctuate.

That was not a statement that I think Cory Wade (who wears my number!) is Warren Spahn good. Improper phrasing on my part.

I see 111

That makes it a little more understanding to me. But, he is a good pitcher!

I don't think anyone here isn't impressed or excited for him, but it makes it hard to think he's the 195 ERA+ pitcher. As ToyCannon said, he could normalize and still have a very solid numbers all around--just as long as it doesn't even out in the playoffs, we'll be ok with that.

I'd like to add how much Baseball Analysis and poker seem to go hand in hand.

114
But, he is a good pitcher!

I think there is too much of a negative stigma associated with the term "luck". I think Wade has been a good pitcher this year, no doubt, and he has been a little lucky.

I feel comfortable when he is on the mound.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/10/07/verducci.fivecuts/index.html#?eref=T1

Tom Verducci thinks both Ethier and Loney are going to be in the game against Hamels due to lefties hitting Hamels' change up more consistently.

Also this made me snicker.

The only left-handed hitter that Torre would hit for is second baseman Blake DeWitt, who gets replaced anyway when the Dodgers have a lead by defensive specialist Angel Berroa.

The only reason Torre does this is because Torre loves to do double switches!

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/anatomy-of-a-player-hiroki-kuroda/

Hardball times has a Kuroda story up.

84 , TC i think i forgot to ask which, from 1 to 4, you thought were most to least likely, sorry about that. both offenses can go off on the other team, and both pitching staffs could shut down the other. That is why both teams are in the NLCS!

And now that I've had time to read it, excellent excellent post in 34 and at the end of the last thread. IT's hard for some of us to believe it wasn't "Black Friday" for everybody ;)

Looks like the Phillies are going with Hamels, Myers, Moyer, and Blanton. Hamels won't pitch on 3 days rest. This is huge!

122
We can totally handle Blanton.

Manny's on the cover of SI. The media must be trying to jinx us.

124 Jinxes and curses aren't going to affect Manny. He probably doesn't even realize he is on there. I just think it's great they didn't make it Dustin Pedroia.

That really help us.

Lowe @ Hamels
Bills @ Myers
Moyer @ Kuroda
Blanton @ Lowe
Hamels @ Bills
Kuroda/Kershaw @ Myers
Lowe @ Moyer

I really only see Game 1 and Game 6 as slight advantages to the Phils pitching. I am ecstatic that we have Lowe and Bills going against Hamels the two times he pitches.

And with the good news about Kuo, things are shaping up very nicely!! I can't wait.

I was not as fortunate as Hollywood Blue in 1977 and had to listen to Many Mota et al on transistor while clapping erasers at Catholic school. However, in 1978 I we were fortunate enough that the fall classics overlapped with Pope election season and had a TV in the classroom. But I don't remember anything as exciting as 1977.

Hillman: Number one would be the consistency of starting pitching. Number two would be the depth of starting pitching. Number three would be an accelerated understanding of the importance of on-base percentage of our offensive players until we can trade for or promote from within more slug and power in our position players. Yes, it can be developed to what we are doing in our system, but it will not happen overnight. It will take a few years.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/mlb_qa_with_trey_hillman/

Kuroda pitched really well against Philly this year. He has a 1.29 ERA against Philly this year, and he had a road start at the 'zen.

http://tinyurl.com/3v4weh

I know Kuroda has road woes, but I rather see Kuroda twice in this series if he can keep up that success, even if he has a road start.

129 - How many days of rest did he have before that start in Philly? How many days of rest would he have in a 3 man rotation?

I've heard Berroa and Ozuna called defensive specialist's in the past 24 hours. These two guys may be offensive, but they are not defensive compared to anyone. What gives?
I think they are just filling space, and I hope to god we don't have anyone useful who could use the space.

130
If the Dodgers go to a 3-man rotation for the series, the only time a pitcher will go on short rest is Derek Lowe in Game 4.

Thu - Lowe (7 days rest)
Fri - Bills (7 days rest)
Sun - Kuroda (7 days rest)
Mon - Lowe (3 days rest)
Wed - Bills (4 days rest)
Fri - Kuroda (4 days rest)
Sat - Lowe (4 days rest)

an in totally ot news but of interest to the los angeles kings fans here, patrick o sullivan has re-signed

Hollywood Joe, I wanted to send a belated thanks for sending us that great, GREAT story. What a touching moment for you in those salad days 31 years ago. I hope the Dodgers can bring as much magic this time around as they did way back when.

---

I don't think the S.I. jinx works any more. If that was true, how do you explain back when the NBA season started and the Boston "Three Party" was shown on the cover?

If there was a jinx, the Celtics would have finished out of the playoffs last year. As it was, they started nearly undefeated and finished with a championship.

A moment I and many Laker fans are still bitter about. :)

133

Hooray! Am I dumb in saying the Kings are just a year or two away? Kopitar, O'Sullivan... youth, speed... It can happen!

Bear in mind, my knowledge of hockey is limited, but I've always been a big Kings fan.

132 - My point is that Kuroda on normal rest scares me (especially on the road), and I was curious as to how much rest Kuroda had before his start in Philly.

136
Both Kuroda starts against Philly were on 4 days rest.

He made no starts on less than 4 days rest. What is the big concern?

126 Game 5--Bills vs. Hamels. In the words of Gus the Firefly: "Yow Wow!"

My favorite part about that Bill Russell walk off is the commentary: "The Dodgers win the pennant, again!"

I love that 'again'.

Also: Isn't it funny that footage of Furcal in a Braves uniform looks really strange? Or Manny in his Red Sox uniform? I have seen so much of them in Dodger uniforms, have focused on them so much that their old selves look strange to me.

135 i totally agree with you..espn picked them to finish 9th in the conference this year...

anyways, back on topic HJ, very cool post. i loved the story

Man oh man does that video make me glad I did not yet exist in the frightening world that was 1981!

34 Thanks for sharing Hollywood Joe. We are the same age and those really were the wonder years. My Mom was really the catalyst for my being a fan as well. And I'm so glad the Dodgers were good back then. Otherwise, I'd probably be a much more pessimistic person. Or a Raider fan.

Caption at Dodgers.com:

http://tinyurl.com/4yl39v

"On Oct. 7, 1978, Greg Luzinski (right) is greeted by his teammates after hitting a two-run homer in Game 4 to help Philly clinch the NLCS against L.A."

137 - He was much much more effective in general when he had longer than 4 days rest. On 4 days rest, that's when the "bad kuroda" tended to come out. I can't really site specifics, unfortunately, because I don't really know how to use b-r and bp.

143

Revisionist history? What on earth??

Here is the Manny SI cover:

http://tinyurl.com/4ez68j

146

Again, nice try SI.

You know, this year's NLCS is going to be most fun I've had in a long time. Believe it or not, this is the farthest both teams have gone in at least 15 years. I figure they would both be loose going in.

Incidentally, Keith Law is on ESPN Radio now letting the Angels have it. Wow!

144
He pitched four games with 6+ rest (Twice @SFG, once because of Clinching, once because of, I believe, a minor injury thing; once @HOU Returning from the DL, and I assume the other was his first start). He was very good in these starts, with an ERA under 4.

With 5 days rest, he was worse than 4.

148 I'm not the best at phrasing things today.

4 Days Rest: .652 OPSA
5 Days Rest: .799 OPSA

http://www.latimes.com/sports/baseball/mlb/dodgers/la-spw-newhan8-2008oct08,0,6009973.story

Ross Newhan writes a story about Donnie Baseball.

And it should be an ERA under 1, not 4, for those four magic starts. He also had a .205 BABIP, so take it with a nice pinch of salt.

144
He pitched fine regardless of rest. Some of the numbers were deceiving:

4 Days Rest
20 GS, 119.2 IP, 24/84 BB/K, 8 HR, 4.14 ERA, 3.34 FIP

More Than 4 Days Rest*
11 GS, 63.2 IP, 18/32 BB/K, 5 HR, 2.97 ERA, 3.88 FIP

*Opening day is included in this group

More info on Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): http://tinyurl.com/4gqm7q

Also, I just realized the Hiroki's Home/Away splits (which got harped on right around the time of the near-perfect) really got normalized near the end of the year. A mere .1 difference in ERA

153
To follow up on that, he was better by about half a run via FIP (3.26 at home, 3.78 away), but certainly Ku-Road-a is not someone I'm uncomfortable handing the ball to.

Also, small sample size or not, Hiroki was really good against Philly. That 1.29 ERA doesn't say enough: .295 OPSA.

Time to revisit the Kuroda Accord©

Parameters
failure
< 125IP ERA+ 96

break even
125IP-150IP ERA+ 96-106

success
150+IP ERA+ 106+

© Nate Purcell Inc.

------------------

Kuroda final stats: 183.1 IP, 119 ERA+

Success!

Huh. FIP as a home/road split is an interesting idea--I had always assumed the biggest difference between pitching at home and away for a pitcher would be things FIP, in theory, eliminates. I guess comfort level with the crowd plays a larger factor than I ever gave credit to.

Maybe the Dodgers should have given Kuroda that 4th year. The problem with shorter contracts is that successful players become more expensive than you initially thought.

158
It's not like they have to resign him when his contract is up. They can possibly receive 3 good years then get up and walk away from the blackjack table, chips in hand.

97 - it's not that I don't trust non-perfect metrics. It's that I tend to be quite skeptical by nature (the good Sisters of Our Lady of Perpetual Help did not like calling on me in Religion Class). I'm happy to hear that there is an actual methodology to the +/- system, as opposed to wild guesses.

117 - luck = preparation + opportunity

Peter Gammons was on Christopher "Mad Dog" Russo's sports show on Sirius and he picked the Dodgers in 7. I think his analysis was spot on.

Both teams can hit the cover off the ball but the Phillies are the ones who show a bigger propensity to get cold. The big key to Gammons though is Utley. He clearly is not healthy and his hip is bothering him. He said if Utley were healthy he'd lean towards the Phillies. With Utley hurt though that probably gives the Dodgers an ever so slight edge.

http://www.beerleaguer.com/beerleaguer/2008/10/experts-look-in.html#comment-133823987

Buck Showalter gave his quickie analysis of the NLCS tonight on SportsCenter, giving what each team should be worried about, and I wish it had come with subtitles. It may have been highly intelligent and I just missed it, sort of like trying to interpret Boomhauer.

Thanks for the analysis on Kuroda, guys. Suddenly I feel much more comfortable with him.

So....

Who is going to be in Philly tomorrow?

The recent poll over at Joe Posnanski's site shows a Dodger landslide victory over the Phillies. Just as shocking are the Rays getting the nod over the RedSox. That can't happen, the Dodger Rays can't play the Dodgers for the World Championship. That wasn't supposed to happen until 2010.

165. I will probably get to Chickie & Pete's around 6ish. There were a couple others I saw that were planning to go to the game (kachang, njr ?).

I'll be in Chicago tomorrow, so at least the game is a 7:15 start time for me. I don't think I'll bring my Dodger cap though, that would be rubbing it in.

i'll be there tomorrow and friday, probably solo because i'll likely have a work credential not a real ticket. is chickie and pete's that outdoor area that's within the gates of the park, because i dont remember there being much of interestin the area around the park.

Chickie & Pete's is a warehouse-sized bar/restaurant across the street from Citizen's Bank.

http://www.chickiesandpetes.com/page/page/790062.htm

I live in Philadelphia, but I'll be flying to Provo, UT for a conference tomorrow. I'm hoping this series goes at least 6 games. Any suggestions on the best (cheapest) way to get tickets to a game for next Friday or Saturday?

So Boston will go Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester, and Wakefield in its four games of the ALCS.

The Rays will be tossing TBD in Game 1.

168. I've been rubbing it in all week, it's fine. They all still completely refuse to give the Dodgers any credit at all, so I figure the Cubs fans deserve it.

172 TBD Likely to be (my high school) Hart Alumni James Shields, according to some AP article I read a bit ago.

171 Yesterday there were lots of tixs for games 1 and 2 on Craig's List. Probably see more for 6 and 7 in a few days.

NPUT

Hey there to all in the philly/new york/ne corridor contingent.

I'll be there tomorrow and friday (whoo hoo!). In fact, I have 1 extra ticket for friday. Its a great seat in the infield level, row 30-ish behind 3rd base. The only catch is that you'll have to actually sit with me as I'm under strict orders to make sure that the ticket is not resold. MLB is funny that way and I don't want to get my wife fired. Its a $120 ticket and I'm not looking to make any money. Just to have a sympathetic Dodger fan to sit next to.

Email me at jaehyun.chang at gmail.com

Oh and yes, I'm planning on getting to Chickie and Pete's before the game as well...maybe by 6pm. So looking forward to this!