Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
It's strange, but I can't remember when I've had less interest at the outset of a Dodger offseason. That's partly the reason for my mini-vacation in recent days. It's not that I don't care what goes on with the team, but I've really reduced myself to a "wake me when something actually happens" state.
One thing I have wondered about, however, is the state of mind of the Dodgers and their fans should Manny Ramirez sign elsewhere. Having become addicted in a short time to his awesome display of talent, the mood around Dodger Stadium in his absence might be funereal. Might be downright angry. Might be hopeless.
I watched a movie this weekend, Elegy, which called to mind this dilemma. Elegy tries to offer a twist on a May-December affair between characters played by His Eminence Ben Kingsley and Penelope Cruz. One of the key points is that Kingsley's David is so enraptured by Cruz's Consuela, but also so convinced she will betray him, that he can't envision a future with or without her. He's trapped. Who David was his considerable talent and his thoughtful (if smug) personality no longer matters, and when this Catch-22 inevitably leads to their breakup, David can't figure out where to go from there. (By the way, it's after this point that the movie's sad part comes.) Despite the talent in the Dodger clubhouse that Ramirez would leave behind, I suspect there will be a similar identity crisis if Manny suits up for another team in 2009.
Of course, an identity crisis pales in importance to a talent crisis, and it's how the Dodgers respond to the latter that matters most. One idea that has been floated by people like Andrew Grant at True Blue L.A. is that the Dodgers' best move in a post-Manny world might be to focus on pitching and defense. Even if the team loses Derek Lowe, the Dodgers have the resources to keep their pitching among the best in the National League. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has room for improvement on the defensive end, an improvement that could come more easily than trying to solve all the team's offensive problems. If you want to know whether better defense can make an impact, look no further than Tampa Bay. A Dodger team that smothers the opposition will contend, even if the core of the lineup is Russell Martin, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and James Loney.
Of course, I'm not against improving the offense I believe in the importance of the home run as much as anyone. The defense-first approach is just something to consider. The question is, does Los Angeles have the stomach for it? Even though pitching and defense supposedly defined those glory Dodger teams of the 1960s that so many people look back upon so fondly, is 2009 destined to be a buzzkill without Ramirez?
A team pursuing this strategy needs the courage of its convictions. It needs to be assertive. It needs to sincerely and passionately make the case, because Spring Training offers too much time for others to fill in the blanks with their own assessment.
And then, the strategy needs to work. The 2003 Dodgers won 85 games, even though the second-best hitter on the team was arguably Jolbert Cabrera. The run prevention was that good. You can win that way. I don't know if the 2009 Dodgers can match the 2003 squad for keeping runs off the board, but I don't see any way that the '09 club, even without Ramirez, will be as offensively challenged as the '03ers.
Manny Ramirez would be great for the Dodgers in 2009. Frankly, the team could frontload a contract and, if it managed its finances properly, simply accept overpaying him in the later years of his deal as the cost of doing business. They could even pay him and trade him, just like the Red Sox did. But the Dodgers don't have to sign Ramirez to win. They just need to have an alternative that makes solid performance sense, that's convincing. No matter what happens, the Dodgers need credibility.
Penelope Cruz is the bee's knees, but you have to be prepared for life both with her or without her. Either way, you need a good reason to get out of bed in the morning.
2B or 3B
SS
LF
SP
SP
That's a lotta needs.
But are they? The Dodgers' needs include:
1. Left fielder who can hit
2. Frontline starting pitcher
3. Three starting infielders
Even if we assume DeWitt helps fill #3, that's still a lot of important spots to fill.
I originally wrote both 2B and 3B, but then remembered that DeWitt had "earned" a starting infield position.
Why do we need two starting pitchers?
Stadium/Runs/HRs/Hits
Chase/2/10/3
Coors/3/3/1
AT&T/11/13/13
Dodger Stadium/29/24/30
Petco/30/30/29
I'd like to see Manny back, but not at any price. I'm only willing to go a few steps past the unreasonable line.
Because after Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda, Ned won't feel comfortable giving the remaining rotation spots to players currently on the roster. He'll pay for an expensive starter, plus a Loaiza-type (the latter of which we'll eventually pay to sit on our bench or someone else's after he's DFAed).
That's a great point that others will write your "story" during spring training if you haven't already written it yourself.
I think between Penny and McDonald we have the #4 starter covered.
http://harvardmagazine.com/2000/11/the-saga-of-a-great-head.html
The last time they gave up fewer runs was in 2003.
I do think that getting better in these categories is a good idea, I don't know how much better you can get.
Does anyone think that the Dodgers can do what Tampa Bay and Philadelphia did this year? Tampa Bay gave up 273 less runs than they did in 2007 and Philadelphia gave up 141 runs less. (Tampa Bay scored 8 runs less this year while Philadelphia scored 95 runs less)
Higher ticket prices and a little playoff payoff could allow $50M* available for FAs in 2009. With that budget, seems possible to mix and match the following combos to fulfill the three needs...
1. LF power: Manny/Dunn/Burrell
2. SP: CC/Lowe/Penny/??
3. middle infielder, leadoff: Hudson/Furcal and use internal options to fill SS or 2nd.
*also assumes McCourt will look at the $50M as a real possibility since the ~$30M sinkhole to Jones/Schmidt ends the following year (although I believe there would still be bonus $$ to be paid)
For example his review headline of the latest James Bond movie could read something like, "Not Much VORP in New Bond Flick!". Let's give those entertainment minded folk a taste of their own medicine.
vr, Xei
Perhaps a more palatable headline would be "Quantum Solace a Home Run" or "HSM3, Max Payne Bury Bond's Latest at Box Office."
That would be fantastic and I would be very happy, would the payroll go up or down with that?
But it's never tiring talking about Penelope. If you want to see a young Penelope, try to find Belle Epoche, Abre Los Ojos (the original version of Vanilla Sky), or Jamon Jamon.
I'm pretty sure that you get to see skin in all three. Notwithstanding, she has the most voluptuous face out there.
They would have until Thursday, November 6 to decide on Gary Bennett's option ($50k buyout or $900k).
Small sample size. As Harold said check out her Spanish movies like Volver or Todo sobre mi madre. Probably having a great director helps.
I agree, I've said all along I'd like CC more then Manny not that I'm holding out hope for such a thing.
Re Elegy: File it with a thousand others under "Book is better than the movie."
I still think he ends up either in California, or in NY.
"For Philly fans, winning is torture"
http://tinyurl.com/6fzr74
>>In spite of the good vibrations, the inner Philadelphian the one who cheered when Michael Irvin got carted off the football field with a neck injury is always aching to come out in any form. Phillies fans this October are like pit bulls wagging their tails, seemingly rehabilitated until one false move turns them savage.<<
Makes me root even harder for them to lose, but maybe winning will cure them of all the evil. Hard to imagine...
I do think that getting better in these categories is a good idea, I don't know how much better you can get.
Part of it is getting better, part of it is replacing parts to tread water. The league-wide downward scoring trend contributed to a 79-run improvement in run prevention. The ERA+ in 2007 was 109, and was 115 in 2008 (this updated number isn't yet on the B-R league page), so the pitching gap wasn't too wide.
In 2007, the Dodgers gave up 727 runs, good enough for 4th in the NL. Yet 59 of their starts came from guys with a collective 5.86 ERA (~78 ERA+).
In 2008, the Dodgers gave up 648 runs, 1st in the NL. Yet they still had 29 starts from guys with a collective 5.77 ERA (~79 ERA+).
This year, Billingsley's improvement and simply playing a full season contributed greatly to the team's improvement. Hopefully Kershaw takes that mantle this season.
Penny, or Penny's replacement, figures to be better in 2009 than Penny in 2008.
Add in the CC > Lowe factor, and there's still plenty of room for improvement.
Sort of like how a pitcher gets charged with runs that score after he's already in the shower.
The Scapegoaters Association is not going to like that contract. Luckily, they have no shortage of people to blame.
[runs and ducks]
http://tinyurl.com/59368e
The article mentions that Cairo and Randy Winn are the only two active original Rays, since they were on the first 40-man roster in club history. Since they used that criteria, our man JJJ got the shaft. Johnson (first pitched for TB on 4/23/98) is the other 1998 Devil Ray still active in the bigs.
That is a stat that will be hard to repeat.
That is a stat that will be hard to repeat.
In 1995 the Dodgers' double-play combo at Class AA was Miguel Cairo and Wilton Guerrero. Who would have thought Cairo would end up having by far the longer career?
I purposely corrected myself in the second paragraph to avoid the lonely "Tampa". I completely missed the first error. D'oh!
Only the 1922-1923 Yankees have pulled off the five 27+ start group in back-to-back years.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/fBfZ
Only the 1922-1923 Yankees have pulled off the five 27+ start group in back-to-back years.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/fBfZ
Exhibit A: I changed the links.
I've decided to go forward with the essay/semi blog project, hopefully domain'd "amillionbutterflies.com," but now I'm starting to think I should wait until Spring Training. Decisions, Decisions.
Both teams had an outfielder named Whitey Witt, whose name delights me.
For a half season of Teixeira, the Angels gave up a starter at the same position (Kotchman) and their #6 prospect (Marek; according to BA).
McDonald was rated #7 in the Dodger organization, but would be higher now.
A Kemp-McDonald is not that far fetched (and probably isn't enough).
Kemp's OPS+ was 10 - 15 pts higher than Kotchman every year and Kemp plays a much more valuable position, although Kotchman was major league ready.
If the Rockies expectations are that high, no way a trade gets done.
Has any Dodger fan seen Tony Abreu play alot?
I'm looking forward to seeing Portland play. Fernandez/Oden could make them something special, and soon.
At what point does he stop getting head coaching jobs?
When will the Dodgers decide if they are going to sign Manny Ramirez?
In last week's mailbag you said the club hasn't given up on Jason Schmidt. Why not?
If a player needs three years of MLB service to be eligible for salary arbitration, why are Russell Martin and Andre Ethier eligible already?
How will the fact that Dodgers assistant general manager Kim Ng did not get the Seattle general manager's job impact the Dodgers?
Is Tony Abreu healthy?
http://tinyurl.com/645ogm
He might be done as a head coach now, but your implication that he hasn't deserved the jobs he has gotten is off base.
http://www.laobserved.com/archive/2008/10/list_of_la_times_departur.php
Tell Ruben to do some laundry. The wait may be a while.
Not an expert on TVs, but we got Samsung 42" with the 120 hz refresh rate and it is one of the most satisfying things I have ever bought. My wife and I looked at this particular model in three stores and the picture looked better than anything else at all three (and it was $500 less than one of the Somy Bravias that we looked at).
I like an LCD over Plasma. Slightly less heat, deeper blacks, and a wider viewing angle (but only slightly).
In general convenience trumps quality, so unless you care THAT much, getting an LCD is just fine.
I think 120 Hz is quite nice though. Blu-ray movies are encoded at 24fps, just like they are in the theaters. 120 Hz TV's can display the 24fps without doing any weird processing (each frame is shown 5 times in one second). If you don't quite get what I'm saying, TV's in the past have been 60 Hz. 60 is not divisible by 24. So your DVD player would have to do some processing (called 3:2 pulldown) to get the 24 frames to display properly and smoothly on a TV. Blu-ray and 120 Hz TV's generally fix that problem. It's not a HUGE deal, but the smoothness is quite nice. And BTW, TV's had been 60 Hz because broadcast TV is 30fps (in a nutshell), as opposed to film's 24, and 30 divides into 60 nicely.
The other "benefit" of 120 Hz is the frame interpolation. The TV can interpolate between frames, to make things look even smoother. Most of the time, I find the effect pretty weird, so I leave it off.
It's up to you, whether you think 120 Hz is worth it. I got my TV mainly to watch movies, DVD and blu-ray, so 120 Hz was pretty important to me. TV's and DVD players can do a very good job of 3:2 pulldown, so it's not necessarily a HUGE leap.
If you're wondering, I have a Sony SXRD. It's a rear projection TV (kind of like DLP, but not exactly). It's rated very highly (almost as good as the Pioneer Kuro plasma) but doesn't suck up power like a beast.
The difference in plasma vs. LCD power consumption is non-trivial. I have read of people having to re-wire their house to install a new plasma TV. I ran a fairly quick survey in August of then-popular 50" plasma TV's and 52" LCD TV's. The power consumption ranged from 2:1 to almost 3:1.
http://tinyurl.com/2jhdv4
We saw the difference between 120 Hz and 60 Hz refresh rates when we were in the market for a new TV, and there is just no comparison. For sports especially, the difference is staggering, and the picture quality is enormously improved, especially for motion.
I'm already on my second generation of HDTV; we bought a 42" Sony LCD rear projector for the 2004 Olympics. It's a fine unit, but it does have some issues with narrow field of views at the periphery, and it doesn't tolerate people watching much above or below the horizontal (i.e. you must be sitting to avoid losing picture quality). We moved the Sony into the guest bedroom, and have a couple Sharp TV's now, a 65" unit for the living room and a smaller 32" unit in the bedroom. Both have been fine performers, though you might consider using external speakers for the smaller TV, because there are volume issues for some reason, especially on HD broadcasts.
I stumbled across this Webopedia discussion of the two technologies that appears like it might be useful to you.
http://www.webopedia.com/quick_ref/LCD_versus_Plasma.asp
I'm watching next year's World Series at Rob's house.
I want my Manny!
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster
Oh, and I love my Samsung HDTV.
I wonder what the Dodgers would offer. If I'm the Padres, I want the deal to start with Kershaw. The Dodgers may not mind this if they see Elbert and McDonald as providing the cheap depth that is needed.
102
I can not conceive of blacks being any deeper than on my Samsung, especially on an HD channel but I looked it up and you are correct.
When we got Manny, I said he was about a one win improvement over Pierre because he was going to hit like he did in Boston and play lousy defense. Instead, he hit .400 and played average defense. If you saw that coming, more power to you.
Putting a extra surcharge of prospects on trading within the division is silly especially when you're not expected to contend.
I personally would like to see the Dodgers sign CC and then wait for 2010 before they did anything else if they can't trade Jones and his entire salary and do it without taking back wasted salary in return.
Sign me up for great defense and pitching for 2009 and that may include no Furcal.
Manny in LA / amount of overall career average:
.396 / .082 BA
.489 / .078 OBP
.743 / .150 Slg%
1.232 / .228 OPS
(What was the worst stretch he had to endure here? 2-14 in Philly when LA got swept?)
{please adjust sarcasm meters accordingly}
I remember John Madden saying in an interview that one of the greatest disappointments in his life was when he saw how narrow the Delaware River was.
Maybe Balfour for an inning, followed by Price until the game ends or something like that.
Then hope Shields can go deep tomorrow in St. Pete, followed by Johnny Wholestaff on Thursday.
Each player gets a single room in a "first class hotel", per the CBA, so they probably need 40+ rooms for everyone including coaches and staff. That might be hard to find just in general.
Just like the Miggy rumors last fall. We had established players getting mentioned plus Kershaw while everyone else just had AA/AAA players being mentioned. Then he gets traded for a package that wouldn't have been as good as Kemp alone.
It is amazing how loaded the Braves minor leagues are even after the Vowel deal. They have been drafting up a storm the last few years.
Price can probably go quite long to finish Game 5.
To win the series, the Rays need Shields to pitch 7 or more of the remaining 22 (or more) innings. He's probably better off pitching in a role he's used to (starting Game 6) rather than spreading him out between possibly Games 5 and 7.
I ask because today is Garza's 3rd rest day. If Game 5 continues today, might he be available for an inning or two if needed, or would his "throw day" have been yesterday?
Garza is a more realistic option than Shields in relief today (or whenever weather allows).
In the AL he could but in the NL he might need to be pinch hit for in a key situation. It's called baseball and it is a whole different ballgame then the AL version.
I've been meaning to ask, why is Teixeira "The Vowel"? Is it just because 5 of his 8 last name letters are vowels? I feel like I'm missing something here.
Isn't your question self explanatory?
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