Baseball Toaster Dodger Thoughts
Jon Weisman's outlet
for dealing psychologically
with the Los Angeles Dodgers
and baseball.
Frozen Toast
Google Search
Dodger Thoughts

02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

12  11  10  09  08  07 
06  05  04  03  02  01 

09  08  07 
About Jon
Thank You For Not ...

1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with

Nonpartisan Election Chat
2008-11-03 15:12
by Jon Weisman

This thread will be dedicated to nonpartisan news and discussion of Election Day. We've done this once or twice before and it went mostly without incident. My approach toward allowing or deleting comments might be somewhat malleable, but here is the main rule: No cheering nor booing in the press box nor in the stands. I don't want to know whom you're rooting for or against. But obviously, I know that this election is on the mind of many in this community, and I hope that I can provide a calm place for chatting about it.

All regular Dodger Thoughts discussion should continue in the most active thread. As of this writing, that's the thread below this one.

Here's a topic to kick things off: I'm still upset that voters-by-mail don't get "I voted" stickers.

Comments (254)
Show/Hide Comments 1-50
2008-11-03 15:28:01
1.   bhsportsguy
Yeah, how are we supposed to get your free coffee at Starbucks without one.
2008-11-03 15:29:17
2.   Xeifrank
How about we only allow voting in warm weather states. vr, Xei
2008-11-03 15:30:42
3.   Icaros
I'll send one of you mine. I have a blanket hatred for all stickers.
2008-11-03 15:31:58
4.   MollyKnight
I'm upset about how long the lines are at the polls. It's clear that early voting should be allowed everywhere because it obviously gives people many chances to cast their ballots.

I am pleased that my polling site opens at 6 am and I will hopefully continue my tradition of being the first person in my precinct to vote. I may wake up at 4 and head over there. Or I may just stay out all night.

2008-11-03 15:33:46
5.   MollyKnight
Oh, I am also upset that Obama's grandmother died right before the election. I thought it was classy that McCain immediately offered his condolences.

I also thought McCain was really funny on SNL the other night.

2008-11-03 15:36:51
6.   Jon Weisman
4 - I'm all in favor of the Election Day holiday, to go with the Opening Day holiday I also advocate.
2008-11-03 15:41:00
7.   Harold M Johnson
This election has made me very nervous for a lot of different reasons, from family members sending divisive (and often unintentionally hilarious) email forwards to each other to just a general feeling of uncertainty no matter what the outcome.

I'll be pretty glad when it's over, although the problems the country faces aren't going anywhere.

2008-11-03 15:41:05
8.   Icaros
I'm glad Homer Simpson showed me the pitfalls of using the double-wide voting booth last night.
2008-11-03 15:43:37
9.   Eric Stephen
Tomorrow late night and Wednesday morning has got to be the worst time of the year for confetti cleaner uppers.

It's basically April for accountants times ten.

2008-11-03 15:43:41
10.   Xeifrank
4. Not sure if that was sarcasm are not, but early voting is allowed every where (atleast I think it is). It's called an absentee ballot. I'm not sure why most people don't become permanent absentee ballot voters.
vr, Xei
2008-11-03 15:45:47
11.   68elcamino427
I'm still upset that most "vote by mail" ballots are rarely counted and are not included in the tabulations for the vote.
2008-11-03 15:47:31
12.   bhsportsguy
10 Some states are very strict with restrictions for allowing voting by mail.
2008-11-03 15:49:03
13.   Ken Arneson
10 I like the ritual of going into the booth and voting on Election Day. There's something satisfying about it. I've voted both "early" and absentee, and it just doesn't feel the same.
2008-11-03 15:49:17
14.   68elcamino427
Thankfully - you don't have a blanket for all hatred stickers.
2008-11-03 15:49:33
15.   deburns
How 'bout a non-partisan baseball comment? How does DT think about baseball players making endorsements of candidates? I'm thinking of a certain Red Sox pitcher, but I'm sure there are others. Bunning doesn't count, either. And I don't even want to get into movie stars, singers and other entertainers who often don't have a clue.
2008-11-03 15:53:47
16.   Jon Weisman
13 - As I said earlier today, I definitely prefer going to the booth, but I even more prefer not waiting in the lines.

15 - Doesn't bother me. Everyone's entitled to their opinion.

2008-11-03 15:53:49
17.   68elcamino427
Been told many times - pitchers only think they're smart.
2008-11-03 15:59:19
18.   Jon Weisman
Okay - going into a meeting - be good.
2008-11-03 16:00:32
19.   Xeifrank
15. I ignore it. If it's done by some kind of entertainer and I think it's over the top, I won't pay to watch their movies or buy their albums etc... Hollywood tends to be a little on the partisan side, so it helps keep me out of the theaters a little more than I already would.
vr, Xei
2008-11-03 16:01:23
20.   Harold M Johnson
15 Everyone's entitled to their opinion, personally I don't think endorsements from non-experts (celebrities, athletes, etc.) really sway people one way or the other. If you're already made up your mind, it might make you feel good that your favorite player feels the same way but that's about it.
2008-11-03 16:02:15
21.   Branch Rickey
15 I'm actually strongly against this. Well everyone is entitled to their opinion, not everyone is granted a forum to disseminate that opinion to the masses. Celebrities are granted that forum on the basis of something other than their smarts or their insight. To use their given power to voice their opinions on anything other than their profession is an abuse of the power we grant them.
2008-11-03 16:04:23
22.   Branch Rickey
20 Hmmm... you might want to run that opinion past most of the biggest advertisers in the world. They are betting a lot of money against that belief.
2008-11-03 16:05:28
23.   ToyCannon
That may have been the only funny thing about the Simpsons last night.

I'm going to miss the comedy of this election. That kind of material doesn't come along every 4 years.

Why shouldn't athletes have political opinions? Having a clue has never been a prerequisite for voicing an opinion on anything.

2008-11-03 16:05:44
24.   bhsportsguy
21 And yet, there are those who have been critical of Michael Jordan and other African-American athletes for not using their popularity to voice their opinions about current events.

Ali and Jackie Robinson were two who were never silent about their feelings and they are generally remembered favorably for doing so.

2008-11-03 16:09:57
25.   Eric L
21 I understand what you are saying, but I think it is fairly easy to just ignore it.

This is probably going to be slightly unpopular, but I think we also invalidate some celebrity opinions simply because they are celebrities. Some of them do seem to be well-informed.

2008-11-03 16:10:59
26.   Branch Rickey
24. And I disagree with them (the masses--not JR) . And as for Jackie... he didn't speak out much... his actions spoke for him. And if he had, he would have been talking from what he knows. If he had an opinion on the Iraq war, I wouldn't have wanted him to express it publicly. He was in a position to discuss race. People care what Joe The Plumber has to say but I don't think that they should.
2008-11-03 16:12:44
27.   68elcamino427
The ones that support my viewpoint I find are much smarter than the others who do not - who are dumb.
2008-11-03 16:15:13
28.   Eric L
26 Jackie was pretty active in political campaigns. He famously supported Nixon in 1960 because he somewhat mistakenly believed that Nixon was more committed to the civil rights movement.
2008-11-03 16:22:33
29.   Branch Rickey
20 25 I don't think the power of celebrity endorsements should be dismissed so easily. Clearly people are greatly swayed by what their heros believe. Even if you personally can't be swayed, how would you like Tom Hanks publicly coming out against your favorite proposition? If you don't think it matters, why do you think so many millions of dollars are paid for product endorsements? Celebrities help shape our opinions as a country. I don't think that is good. It's somewhat bad when they shape what soda we drink; it's really bad when they shape our politics.
2008-11-03 16:25:07
30.   KG16
4 - in the words of Beck, "I think I'm in love"
2008-11-03 16:25:15
31.   Sam PHL
15. Jimmy Rollins robo-called me today. Living in LA, I got plenty of the Ben Affleck, Charlie Sheen, etc. calls, but getting one from a baseball player was different.
2008-11-03 16:26:19
32.   Jim Hitchcock
29 And we willingly let it happen. We live in a country where Budweiser can be bought out by a German company, and a month later they're introducing their new brew, American Ale.


2008-11-03 16:26:21
33.   TellMeTheScoreRickMonday
These robocalls are out of control. Purgatory for all of them who participate in this spam.
2008-11-03 16:30:57
34.   KG16
15 - I don't mind celebrity endorsements, athlete or entertainer. I don't put much weight in their endorsements (or any endorsement, really), because unless they show otherwise, they're just another person with an opinion.

I've never got the whole "I'm not going to watch his movies" thing. I'm not paying for their political pontifications, I'm paying because they are quite good a playing make believe.

2008-11-03 16:33:36
35.   68elcamino427
Many people today will not take the time necessary to be informed. When people are uninformed or misinformed does this lead to the "emotional" buy in that you are referring to? Personally I couldn't give a wit regarding what a particular celebrity's viewpoints are. If I am influenced at all it is rather after the fashion as described so well in 19 .
The thing that is galling to me is that many people won't take the time to really identify the issues and know the reasons as opposed to just feelings.
2008-11-03 16:35:22
36.   KG16
28 - Nixon circa 1960 was actually quite good on civil rights. then he lost in a crazy close race and went crazy. but even with the southern strategy, he wasn't terrible on civil rights.
2008-11-03 16:37:56
37.   ToyCannon
Interesting how we are supposed to discuss the election without really discussing the election. We end up talking about celebrity opinions which is pretty far down the scale of things that are important.

Tomorrow will be a turning point in the United States and I'm glad that US Citizens are tuning in and deciding for the 1st time in years to be a part of the process. Whatever happens tomorrow I hope they stay involved.

Evidently one side thinks these new voters are fairly stupid.
1. Calls being made by "Obama supporters" telling voters that they can vote over the phone for their candidate instead of waiting in long lines.
2. Leaflets being placed on college campuses stating that if you have parking tickets you will be arrested when you goto vote.
3. Calls being made telling newly registered voters that because of the large turnout expected that Republicans will be voting on Tuesday and Democrats on Wednesday.

Now a cynic would say that if you were so stupid to fall for these shenanigans you have no business voting in the first place. And to be honest I'd agree. Still it is amazing that smart people are spending their time trying to find ways to dupe ignorant people out of their right to vote.

2008-11-03 16:40:17
38.   JRSarno
I don't know how it's possible to have a nonpartisan chat regarding one of the most partisan elections in recent years. But, I guess, theoretically it can be done.

Question: How are those Dodger Stadium tours? I was thinking of taking the wifey, since I live 2 mins from El Estadio, but I wanted to know if it was something particularly cool? Anyone been on one recently?

2008-11-03 16:40:51
39.   Jon Weisman
21 - "abuse of the power we grant them"?

I think that's a bit much. That's like blaming Barry Bonds for going to first base when he gets intentionally walked.

The alternative to celebrities expressing their opinions is celebrities not being allowed to express their opinions. That doesn't seem like a fair alternative.

If a voter bases an opinion on a celebrity opinion, the responsibility lies with the voter, not the celebrity.

2008-11-03 16:41:54
40.   Jon Weisman
38 - "I don't know how it's possible to have a nonpartisan chat regarding one of the most partisan elections in recent years."

So far, so good.

2008-11-03 16:42:21
41.   Lee Corbett
the view from Australia is decidedly lopsided according to our Polls. But then politics in the rest of the world is very different from the States. Interest here has been intense; possibly more than our recent election!

I am really looking forward to tomorrow my time.

2008-11-03 16:43:39
42.   Jim Hitchcock
35 Doesd anybody remember Michael Benner, the original host of Impact On KLOS? He used to have a line something like `It's too much work to be informed, and besides, Laverne & Shirley is on'.
2008-11-03 16:45:37
43.   Lee Corbett
39 could not agree more. I like it when celebrities I like come out for my team; but if the thing that sways you is love of Chuck Norris or the Boss, then absent them you'd probably be taking your cue from some other notable in the world. Everyone looks to others, and if you look to people who may know nothing about politics, more fool you.
2008-11-03 16:47:17
44.   Xeifrank
34. You mean you've never had your own embargo? I have atleast a dozen going on right now. :)
vr, Xei
2008-11-03 16:48:28
45.   68elcamino427
Yes ... Yes ... sex - drugs - rock & roll ... 95.5 KLOS.
I think that I remember those days (... :-) ... perpetual smile)
Any way I was tuned in.
2008-11-03 16:50:20
46.   KG16
it's funny, every time elections come around, you hear about the need to be informed. I tend to agree with elcamino, that most people don't have the time/energy/desire to be informed. I think one of the big reasons for that is because any reasoned investigation into issues would lead someone to question their beliefs, every so often, and most people aren't confident enough to change their mind or admit that they just don't know.

But, at the same time, I think there are a lot of people that vote on one or two issues, and that's all they care about. They are reasonably well informed on those couple of issues, but can't always see the bigger picture.

And then you've got the folks who are undecided after a year and a half of campaigning. I don't know about them.

2008-11-03 16:50:50
47.   Bill Crain
Well, maybe. But 37 is treading on some very thin ice.
2008-11-03 16:50:52
48.   nme
1- I just heard about the Starbucks Coffee thing. I have very mixed feelings on this. On the one hand, any encouragement to vote is thumbs up in my book. On the other hand, I work at a particularly busy Starbucks, and I work all day tomorrow. That means that not only will politics be on everyone's mind at work, but customers will be coming in all day for their free coffee, and likely not tipping.

Tomorrow will be a LONG day.

2008-11-03 16:51:19
49.   Branch Rickey
39 I disagree completely (and it's been a while!). I don't see the correlation at all. I'm not blaming them--I'm blaming us And your argument is a straw man. The alternative is not suppressing their rights. The alternative is public discourse like this which calls out the silliness of granting them a public voice on things other than what they are famous for. They have a right to speak. We have a right not to listen and to not interview them on political issues. The more that is pointed out and commonly accepted, the less we will hear from them in public forums.
2008-11-03 16:51:37
50.   Lee Corbett
And can I just say, with the greatest respect to America, the way you all vote is CRAZY! With all these different machines, and chads, and whatnot. We all, every single election, walk in and mark a bit of paper with a pencil and put it in a box. No shenanigans, no chads, no hacking, no not being sure who you just voted for (unless you, not a machine, is stupid).

It is compulsory to vote FYI - I'd love to hear what you make of that? If you don't want to vote you just show up and don't use the pencil; or use it to write something obscene.

Show/Hide Comments 51-100
2008-11-03 16:52:43
51.   KG16
44 - I save my embargos for legitimate reasons. Example: I don't watch any Ben Afflack film that does not involve either Matt Damon and/or Kevin Smith. It has nothing to do with Afflack's political views, and everything to do with the fact that I think he's a bad actor without the help of Damon and/or Smith.

Besides, if I had embargos for entertainment purposes, I'd be left with nothing but Penn & Teller, and old Ronald Reagan and John Wayne flicks.

2008-11-03 16:54:33
52.   KG16
48 - sounds like you may be coming down with something... headache, soar throat, cough...
2008-11-03 16:56:25
53.   Jim Hitchcock
48] Not tipping just because you got the coffee for free is just...wrong.
2008-11-03 16:56:27
54.   nme
52- I think you're right. I feel a bit feverish.
2008-11-03 16:56:50
55.   Harold M Johnson
48 Whenever I get things for free, I always give a nice tip! But perhaps that is not the norm because people don't have their money out?
2008-11-03 16:59:30
56.   Jim Hitchcock
50 Yeah, but OTOH, we don't have Prime Ministers who walk into the ocean and are never seen again :)
2008-11-03 17:00:41
57.   JRSarno
40 -- Hahaha, you guys seem to be doing a good job, indeed! I'm wondering if EVERYONE is thinking like me and is saying "I need to get to the polls SOOOPER early," in which case my polling location will be about as fun as the 405 Freeway. Luckily, my polling place is right near Dodger Stadium. Maybe I'll write in Jeff Kent for Judge of the Superior Court.
2008-11-03 17:01:29
58.   nme
53, 55- well, I hope that people feel that way tomorrow. Actually, I am very excited for tomorrow (not work, that is). This has been an interesting past few months (years? how long have they been campaigning?). While I have my own political views, what really seems important to me is that the country actually cares about voting thins time around. I really hope that the record turnout predictions are true.
2008-11-03 17:02:00
59.   Xeifrank
55. Bob gives $20 tips for his coffee. Me? You'd have to pay me $20 to even take a sip of coffee.
vr, Xei
2008-11-03 17:02:25
60.   Jon Weisman
49 - I'm not following you. Or maybe I'm not sure how to read you. I mean, we do have plenty of public discourse that tells us to take their opinions with a grain of salt, that allows us to ignore them and not interview them.

I don't see any evidence that Bruce Springsteen or Patricia Heaton's political views are being mused upon in any signficant way. For every celebrity that speaks in public, I've seen tons of coverage and interviews with the common people.

No matter what the power of celebrities is, they are in no way dominating the stage. I really don't see an issue here.

2008-11-03 17:03:45
61.   Xeifrank
60. I think his point was that you made it sound like it was wither A or B, with no grey area in between.
vr, Xei
2008-11-03 17:03:46
62.   Humma Kavula
I have a particular pet peeve against the proposition system. I mean, isn't that what we pay our representatives for?

I have a strong desire to vote no on everything, and then go back and ask for a second ballot and vote no on everything again.

I am 100% certain that I will resist the second, and 99% certain that I'll resist the first as well, though there are certain propositions on which I will vote no with extreme prejudice. That counts for more, I hear.

2008-11-03 17:05:03
63.   Xeifrank
62. Actually in California, it's what we pay the judges in SF to do.
vr, Xei
2008-11-03 17:05:54
64.   Humma Kavula
63 I am not sure you want to go there.
2008-11-03 17:06:48
65.   dzzrtRatt
The wisdom of age is that while a new president can be consequential in a few areas, for the most part history guides their hands. Example: I got spitballed frequently for arguing that Al Gore would've reacted to 9/11 pretty much the way W did, including invading Iraq, but I firmly believe it. Or, to go back a ways, Reagan gets lots of credit for turning around the stagnant economy of the 70s, but the most important player in that turnaround, Paul Volcker, was already in place, having been appointed by Carter.

Likewise the current economic turmoil. I can't think of what either candidate will do much differently than the other. Ideologically, they'd probably like to do things very differently, but the opportunity seems unlikely to present itself for either of them to steer this ship on a course much different than the one it is on. Whoever wins will ultimately figure out the course of action that will show tangible economic improvement in time for the 2012 elections. And that's a good thing. We like our economy to grow.

Promises to stop waste, fraud and abuse and thereby have money to pay for some grand scheme or to send a lot of money back to taxpayers also run aground about 100 percent of the time.

What this all means is: if your candidate loses tomorrow, don't get too low about it. Unless you were planning on a White House job, it probably won't make a lot of difference in your life. I'm happy to have voted for who I voted for, but if the other candidate wins, I have no fear the future will work itself out pretty much the same way, perhaps on a slightly different path. We have a very strong, resilient country, anchored by an amazingly prescient Constitution. As crazy as our elected officials sometimes seem, they can only do so much damage before having to face the voters again. So, have faith in the fundamentals as you enjoy the electoral circus!

2008-11-03 17:07:40
66.   daglew
I'm curious as to how many other Dodger Thoughts readers have been looking at, the site by Nate Silver (of Baseball Prospectus, I believe) that is basically using a sabermetrics approach to predict the election results...
2008-11-03 17:08:04
67.   Jon Weisman
61 - Maybe so. But he wrote in 21 that celebrities don't deserve to have a forum. Given that half of America seems to have been interviewed over the past year, I think what I wrote was a reasonable response.
2008-11-03 17:08:06
68.   ToyCannon
Really? I find it amazing that in the year 2008 we aren't voting with our computers using our social security number and the special code sent to us by the registars office as the password. Libaries would be the polling places for those without access. Voting would start on Oct 1st and run through Nov 15. Any hacker found screwing with the voting process would have their balls run up a flagpole. That should take care of most of the cowardly hackers.
2008-11-03 17:08:52
69.   Humma Kavula
66 It's called because that's how many times a day I check that site.
2008-11-03 17:09:15
70.   Jon Weisman
66 - I've got it on my Google Reader.
2008-11-03 17:10:24
71.   Jon Weisman
67 - Apologies for the Rule 6 violation.
2008-11-03 17:10:29
72.   Harold M Johnson
62 I agree that the system does get abused and there are too many propositions, but there are some issues that are difficult for a variety of reasons for the legislature to enact.
2008-11-03 17:10:53
73.   ToyCannon
When the lobbyist can't get the legislature to do what they want they turn to the voters to bypass them.
2008-11-03 17:11:07
74.   Xeifrank
68. Most of the best hackers are in China and Russia, not exactly two countries you want screwing around with our vote.
vr, Xei
2008-11-03 17:14:43
75.   Strike4
For the past four elections I've voted by mail. But I love the excitement of the polling place on election day, so I take my sealed mail-in ballot and hand deliver. This way you can be certain your ballot gets there, savor the event, and enjoy getting to jump the line to boot.
2008-11-03 17:16:18
76.   Harold M Johnson
73 got to love our two comments there side by side!
2008-11-03 17:16:58
77.   KG16
62 - I'm not a big fan of initiatives, but I'm less sour on referendums. I do think we've tied the hands of the legislature a bit too much, but then, from my reading of history, they deserved to be tied up.
2008-11-03 17:19:35
78.   bhsportsguy
I would love to have this debate with Greg Brock along to toss in his Hamilton viewpoint.
2008-11-03 17:21:18
79.   ToyCannon
After voting in 7 presidential elections I just learned you could hand deliver your absentee ballot. I had no idea. It is the best of both worlds. Especially the jump the line snarky feeling of superiority for one brief moment.
2008-11-03 17:23:43
80.   Lee Corbett
68 yeah, i think it works really well. The ballots look the same every year, for state and federal elections, and then they all get poured on a table and counted by electoral officials in front of party scrutineers. You can't watch a computer count, and even if you audit it, most people have no way of knowing the veracity of it. Everyone can count pieces of paper.
2008-11-03 17:27:00
81.   das411
4 - Boy do I hope you meant "many chances to cast their ballo*t*," not "their ballot*s*" or else the recounts may never end...

66 - He was using a Sabermetric approach until about the second week of September when he just so happened to "change his methodology" in favor of one candidate...

2008-11-03 17:27:29
82.   dzzrtRatt
66 Finding out whether Nate's methods are correct is one of the wondrous things we will learn after tomorrow. Basically, he treats the different polling companies as if they were ballplayers whose future performance can be determined by their past accuracy. From that he is able to determine, he believes, where the election is going by using the polls' combined accuracy/inaccuracy to arrive at what he believes is the true state of the race.

It's fascinating, but what keeps occurring to me is that, compared with baseball, this is a tiny sample size. The polls have been running thick and fast as greased molasses all year, but since the primaries ended, there have been no actual events -- not a single ballgame -- from which to draw conclusions. The first and last one happens tomorrow. The primaries do give some guidance, but a primary is a very different kind of election, obviously.

So I'm going to be fascinated to see whether Nate has cracked the code or not. If he has, then all the polling companies immediately become his b----es. Which would be satisfying!

2008-11-03 17:30:32
83.   Lee Corbett
81 that's a bit strong, no?

I think is a great site and have been there daily. It's obviously partisan, but the comments are open to all and lots of people leave their 2 cents.

2008-11-03 17:30:32
84.   bhsportsguy
I have a free ticket to tonight's UCLA game, must let me know by 6:30, I can email you the ticket.

Just reply on the board with your email.

2008-11-03 17:32:22
85.   Andrew Shimmin
Daly wasn't punching chads or hacking diebold machines in 1960. Cheaters find ways of cheating. The only answer is to make the office not worth stealing. We're getting there!
2008-11-03 17:35:45
86.   fanerman
66 I read it every day. The comments are obviously partisan, but I don't have reason to believe the data analysis is...
2008-11-03 17:38:38
87.   D4P
Are we supposed to believe that there are a lot of people who voted for the winner of the past two elections who are now either not voting or voting for a different party?

If so, why is that the case? In other words, how is what happened the past 8 years different from what they expected?

2008-11-03 17:40:26
88.   68elcamino427
That is hilarious - because there is truth to it - also sad.
2008-11-03 17:41:26
89.   fanerman
87 Another possibility is new registered voters.
2008-11-03 17:42:28
90.   D4P
I guess so. But why would there be so many new registered voters now, and why would they mostly be voting in one direction?
2008-11-03 17:47:07
91.   fanerman
90 A young candidate that young voters may find easier to relate to/get excited about, maybe ethnic minority voters..

For whatever reason, I've heard that newly registered voters are more likely to be Democrat than Republican (can't cite a source on it).

2008-11-03 17:47:46
92.   dzzrtRatt
87 In a word, yes. Swing voters in swing states have determined every election since probably 1976. Those people react primarily to economic circumstances. It was clearly illustrated by the change in the polls when the Wall Street/credit meltdown began about a month ago. There was a sudden, seismic shift to Obama, and that's the lead he's been hanging onto. It's not as big as it was, because these voters tend to be center-right, so the "Joe the Plumber" business is having an effect. But these voters probably went for Bush in 2004, and now they hate him. They were souring on him before October, but the bottom dropping out of both their home equity AND their 401k's turned that dissatisfaction into contempt. It was hard for McCain to even get their attention, much less their votes. McCain's odds improved slightly with the rebound of the stock market last week.
2008-11-03 17:47:56
93.   nme
87, 89- That and the expectation that more young people will vote than in years past, and traditionally, young people vote liberally.
2008-11-03 17:51:24
94.   Bill Crain
The only answer is to make the office not worth stealing.

Well said. Very well said.

But I got to disagree that we're making any progress in that direction.

2008-11-03 17:53:59
96.   dzzrtRatt
93 The presumption of an expanded youth turnout is one of the more controversial elements of polling this year. It's never happened before, but the pollsters generally have concluded it will happen in 2008. They haven't really explained why, from a scientific standpoint, 2008 should be different from previous elections. Obama obviously appeals to many young voters, but does his appeal extend to getting them to change the long-established behavior pattern of this cohort? We shall see.
2008-11-03 17:54:01
97.   bhsportsguy
PRINCETON, NJ -- The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

Gallup's final estimate is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter model, and assumes an estimated turnout of 64% of the voting age population, an increase over 2004. (Gallup estimates voter turnout from the results of key voter turnout questions, using a model that compares how respondents' answers to these questions have related, historically, to actual turnout.)

This year's higher turnout estimate is fueled by a surge in early voting -- 28% of registered voters in the final poll indicated they had already voted -- and higher turnout among blacks than in any of the last four presidential elections.

2008-11-03 17:54:07
98.   D4P
But these voters probably went for Bush in 2004, and now they hate him

That's what I don't get. How can you vote for him in 2000, and then again in 2004, and then all of a sudden not support him? How was the second 4 years so different from the first?

2008-11-03 17:55:15
99.   fanerman
98 9/11?
2008-11-03 17:55:23
100.   herchyzer
This year I am probably more informed than I've been at any other time in my life. I surf the net somewhat obsessively, studying up on current affairs. I read leftist commentary on things, rightwing commentary, wacko-libertarian gold-standard promoting viewpoints, and straight wire-service type reporting. I keep thinking I'm going to get a handle on what's "really going on" as all of those alternative news sites promise I will if I just keep reading what they're posting. One thing that tells me that I'm more informed than I have been in the past is when I talk to people "on the street" I often realize that they'll use as a premise something that's just plain wrong. I mean, factually wrong.

Yet, with all of that, I feel more unconfident than ever in being able to make an informed judgement. I just don't seem to have enough background on most issues to discover the truth. I feel like I'm out swimming in a lake with friends and we've gone way out and I've tried to dive to the bottom and have dove as deep as I could and can't even see the bottom.

I voted already during early voting. I decided basically by comparing negatives. I made up my mind at the last minute. I wanted to write someone in but the voting machine wouldn't allow for that. I wasn't going to harass the seniors who were assisting me.

Show/Hide Comments 101-150
2008-11-03 17:57:06
101.   Humma Kavula
96 I could be wrong, but I believe that the reason the pollsters think the young voters will actually show this time is that more of them have bothered to register than ever before.

I could be wrong twice here, though -- about higher numbers of registrants and about that being the reason pollsters think they'll show.

If I'm wrong about both, I'll have committed two errors on one post! I wonder how Bob would score that.

2008-11-03 17:57:08
102.   Bill Crain
Is that like saying we didn't realize how slow Manny was going to be in left field and now a lot of us want the guy who seems to run the fastest?
2008-11-03 17:57:39
103.   D4P
higher turnout among blacks than in any of the last four presidential elections

I guess that makes sense. I can understand feeling like there was "finally someone who represents" them. Whether that's true or not is a separate question.

2008-11-03 17:58:25
104.   Andrew Shimmin
94- We've succeeded in making it completely unworth stealing for normal people. You can't cheat on your wife, or people get upset. You implement a system by which old ladies with hip replacements get strip searched every time they take a plane to see their kids, people call you a tyrant. Even just running for the office, try sneaking one cigarette without the press corps ratting you out to your wife. It's no fun.

We just have to focus on making it unpleasant for the stragglers who haven't caught on to what a bummer of a gig it is.

2008-11-03 18:00:37
105.   Humma Kavula
98 This will get close to Rule 5 territory, so apologies in advance if it crosses a line, and Jon, if you feel the need to delete it, I understand completely.

I noticed a change in the mood of the country after Katrina. Many people could not understand why Anderson Cooper and Sean Penn could get to the people trapped at the Convention Center but FEMA could not. Whether that was actually the story or not, that's the story that stuck. Bush took a big hit for that...

...and coincidentally, around the same time, the war was not going well.

There were other reasons, too, but those two, I think, led to the Democrats' success in 2006. Some things have improved since then, but not enough to change the new impression of Bush, post-2005, so the Democrats are still riding that wave.

2008-11-03 18:03:03
106.   D4P
Does anyone else think it's virtually inevitable that there will be at least one assassination attempt against the senator from Illinois if he is elected president?
2008-11-03 18:03:10
107.   herchyzer
68 . Any hacker found screwing with the voting process...

I'd guess that's what really concerns the voting decision makers. Imagine the havoc that could be caused.

2008-11-03 18:05:02
108.   Bill Crain
I agree with that.

But, then, somebody just referred to my political philosophy as "wacko", so you probably shouldn't rely too much on my endorsement.

2008-11-03 18:05:27
109.   Icaros
I'd be interested in seeing the expected % turnout for African Americans.

How does it compare to previous years?

2008-11-03 18:05:36
110.   dzzrtRatt
98 These people I'm talking about aren't political junkies. They liked Clinton because he wasn't too liberal and he seemed to be good for the economy. They liked Bush '00, kind of, because there has been a slight bias toward the GOP, and he claimed he would be a compassionate conservative, which is how they see themselves. They liked him in '04 because they thought he'd done a good job rallying the country after 9/11 and had prevented further attacks. The economy wasn't as important then -- the stock market was still pretty healthy and housing prices were still bubbling. But now, after eight years, they're judging him based on the results. An economic debacle. Katrina. The war, while much improved, took too long to turn around for these voters. From their standpoint, Bush didn't deliver on what they hoped and expected he would do.

I'm talking about 20 percent of the voters here, and in particular 20 percent of the voters in swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, etc.

The other 80 percent are divided between Republican fanatics who might be sick of Bush, but would tend to vote for another Republican to replace him just 'cuz that's what they do; and Democratic fanatics who hated Bush from the beginning and haven't seen anything to change their minds, and so they'll vote for whoever has a D after his name. To that extent, there is stability. Neither party's candidate is going to fall below 40-45 percent.

2008-11-03 18:06:06
111.   ToyCannon
This is where we can't discuss your question in detail without blowing out Jon's agenda and I'm sure you know the "why" to your question. This is not brain surgery, the answers are all around you in North Carolina.
2008-11-03 18:07:02
112.   Ken Arneson
62 (I hope this opinion is considered non-partisan...) The thing I don't like is that you can change the state constitution in California with just a 50% vote. Statutes I'm OK with, but constitutions should be more enduring, stable and difficult-to-change documents. IMO, constitution changes should require, like changes to taxes currently do, a 2/3 majority to enact.
2008-11-03 18:10:47
113.   Bill Crain
Now that 95 has disappeared my question in 102 is looking kind of stupid.

I want to go on record that I am not now, nor have I ever been, a member of the Juan Pierre Party.

2008-11-03 18:11:24
114.   ToyCannon
My wife thinks it is a forgone conclusion. I expect people to plan such a thing, I hope we never see an attempt take place but this country is full of hate for those who disagree.

I don't envy his children having to be raised in such a strict environment. I'm amazed at Chelsea.

2008-11-03 18:11:29
115.   Icaros
Officials already have at least two eBay bids going for Popemobiles as we speak.
2008-11-03 18:11:53
116.   dzzrtRatt
112 Totally agree.

As a result, the California Constitution is a phone book, mostly full of crap. The comparative elegance and brevity of the document that our Founding Fathers gave us seems even more miraculous when compared to very stupid documents like the CA constitution or (worse even) the LA City Charter.

2008-11-03 18:12:11
117.   herchyzer
37 . Still it is amazing that smart people are spending their time trying to find ways to dupe ignorant people out of their right to vote.

Why should that surprise you? Smart =/= good, except casually.

2008-11-03 18:12:32
118.   Humma Kavula
112 I was just thinking about that, myself.

My big peeve about the proposition system is that it seems like you can have as many bites at the apple as you want. I believe this is the third time that California will vote on (redacted propsition) -- it was rejected twice already. It seems like if a prop fails, all you've got to meet is the (relatively minor) signature threshold and (maybe more difficult, maybe not) raise money.

And then wait for an election with a different turnout demographic.

2008-11-03 18:16:52
119.   Icaros
Wow, wasn't expecting 95 to get cut. I was trying only to provide a possible answer to D4P's question. Is it a partisan statement to point out the guy has the lowest approval ratings of pretty much all time?
2008-11-03 18:18:57
120.   herchyzer
39 . Yes. As we live in the US with its Constitution, there is no alternative to a celebrity expressing his/her opinion. There is only an alternative to paying any attention to the celebrity's wind blast.
2008-11-03 18:19:22
121.   ToyCannon
Jon's inside's are squirming as he moderates this undertaking.
2008-11-03 18:21:53
122.   fanerman
121 I think we're doing okay.
2008-11-03 18:22:08
123.   Icaros

I know. I understand his plight and withdraw my caring about having my comment deleted.

2008-11-03 18:23:27
124.   nme
So far, I would have to say that this has been a success. No one seems to be getting too political, and yet interesting a debatable topics are being brought to the table. See, Dodger fans are reasonable people.
2008-11-03 18:23:48
125.   ToyCannon
You have no idea how many posts I've deleted before posting. I best leave now. Good luck to everyone with the election.
2008-11-03 18:25:32
126.   bhsportsguy
125 You can just email them to me directly.
2008-11-03 18:28:22
127.   Jacob Burch
I'll be in charge, mostly, of another online discussion tomorrow. There is no rule 5 what so ever--or rule 1, for that matter--but I try my hardest to let the rules of logic hold up. Anyone breaks that rule, either side, I first try and point it out--if it's a lost cause, they get thread-banned. A different task than what's at hand for Jon, but I don't envy him.

There is an absolute war zone going on in my hometown over Prop 8, at our busiest intersection. Looked to be 30+ people on each corner, constantly running the street on green lights. The split seemed to be about even, and there appeared to be absolutely no jarring or animosity between the two parties, even though they were very evenly saturated.

Tomorrow brings me Ice Cream, Coffee, a Donut if I find a way to Burbank and leaving work three hours early. Wahoo!

2008-11-03 18:32:16
128.   Humma Kavula
I'll tell you what I hope DOESN'T happen tomorrow:

If Obama loses all the swing states except NV -- that is, if he takes New England, the rust belt, New Mexico, and Nevada, but loses OH, FL, VA, CO, NC, etc....

Then it's 269-269. While I think I know how that would be resolved by the House of Representatives, I don't think it would be good for the country.

I know there's only a very small chance of that happening. I know that if Obama takes Nevada, he's probably also taking at least one of the other swing states. I don't spend a lot of time thinking about this.

But: if it happens, man.

2008-11-03 18:32:18
129.   Andrew Shimmin
Anybody have a list of free stuff I can get for voting? I didn't know about the coffee until this thread. There are donuts and ice cream, too?

Do I have to wear the sticker (I don't like stickers, either)? Or can I affix the sticker to my book, or the top of the ballot that you get back, instead?

2008-11-03 18:32:27
130.   fanerman
127 Free stuff! Another perk of voting in person.
2008-11-03 18:35:43
131.   Icaros

I knew there was a reason I felt a kinship towards you. Next you're going to tell me that eating apples, bananas, and avocado makes your ear-holes itch.

2008-11-03 18:36:33
132.   Jacob Burch
129 Molly had a running list. What I know of is :
Starbucks Tall Brewed Coffee
Free Scoop at Ben and Jerry's (5-8pm)
Free Donut at any Krispy Kreme
Free....uhm, things. At stores not in the LA area and not safe for work. Molly's blog has the link.
2008-11-03 18:37:10
133.   Jacob Burch
130 To be fair, a lot of this stuff is openly "just lie to us and tell us you voted and get it!" I know the Ice Cream and Starbucks are advertised as such.
2008-11-03 18:38:36
134.   Eric Enders
One of the benefits of self-employment is that I was able to spend my day today phonebanking at campaign headquarters today, which is a first for me. (Obviously I won't say which campaign headquarters.) Basically ten percent of the people you call are engaging and glad you called, 20 percent are ticked off, and the other 70 percent aren't home so you end up talking to answering machines. If I had to do it for more than a few days in a row I think my head would probably explode. Not that I'm unhappy I did it.

Participating in this thread is tempting, but Rule 5 is always a struggle for me and would only be even moreso in a thread like this, so I'm going to make myself scarce.

One thing I will do is echo the praise for Nate Silver and fivethirtyeight. The commentary may be ever-so-slightly partisan, but the stats are not, and it's becoming a must-read site for me as much as Dodger Thoughts is.

2008-11-03 18:40:52
135.   Eric Enders
Oh, and also, I didn't get an "I Voted" sticker either. And yes, I'm mad about it! When I voted 10 days ago there had already been so many early voters that they had run out of stickers. And this in a state where neither the Senate race nor the presidential one is competitive.
2008-11-03 18:41:17
136.   Jacob Burch
132 I reversed my ellipsis and my comma. How big of a grammatical faux pas is this? Bob?
2008-11-03 18:42:42
137.   Branch Rickey
106 I'm sure this subject seems distasteful to some and so I apologize if it offends to even address it. But I think it's a fair question and I was thinking about it just yesterday (the subject not the action). My conclusion is that there are far more human beings on earth who would care to assassinate Bush for his religious beliefs than there are that would care to assassinate Obama for his race.
2008-11-03 18:43:59
138.   Jon Weisman
119 - is fine. It's phrased differently than 95.

I thought about leaving 95 as is but I felt it crossed a line. Again, this isn't a science.

2008-11-03 18:44:41
139.   Andrew Shimmin
128- That one I'm not worried about, because it would end alright--the candidate who most likely won a (big) majority of the popular vote would win the election. But the other (which I think is deeply unlikely) possibility, another candidate with a plurality getting hosed in the electoral collage would be ugly. Funny, too, and I usually root for the funniest possible outcome. But ugly.

131- Never noticed any ear-hole discomfort. P-funk does it to me in my eardrums, but it's cool. I dig.

2008-11-03 18:45:52
140.   Jon Weisman
I'm going to tape my ballot stub to my chest tomorrow.
2008-11-03 18:47:02
141.   Jacob Burch
139 Isn't the result of a tie, in modern history, fairly unprecedented (I almost made a pun here!), and therefore sort of ambigious? I believe the House picks the president and the Senate picks the Vic, but is it established if its the coming or going congress? There was a pretty funny article regarding this that made me cringe and giggle at the same time.
2008-11-03 18:47:03
142.   Eric Enders
129 "Anybody have a list of free stuff I can get for voting? I didn't know about the coffee until this thread. There are donuts and ice cream, too?"

You can get a free MP3 from Wilco!

2008-11-03 18:49:53
143.   Andrew Shimmin
141- The house isn't going to change parties, so the outcome would be the same. Except, maybe Clinton could convince the Congress to seat her instead! New funniest outcome!
2008-11-03 18:50:00
144.   Icaros

Obama/Palin in 2008!

2008-11-03 18:53:48
145.   Xeifrank
134. I can't stand getting political phone calls at my home. Junk mail is bad enough, but to actually invade my home with phone calls, while I am doing things like helping my daughter with her homework, reading books, getting ready for bed, or actually sleeping is very annoying. When I came home from my three week trip, my answering machine was full. 18 calls were political, 1 hang up, 1 doctor... nobody else could get through.
vr, Xei
2008-11-03 18:54:53
146.   nme
I just read that it is against federal law for Starbucks to give away coffee for voting. Apparently, you cannot trade goods, money, or services in exchange for voting (makes sense, kind of). I get how that law is essential in order to criminalize buying votes for a specific candidate. But isn't the point of democracy to vote? If a company wants to encourage the act of voting, regardless of how you vote, I fail to see how we need a law "protecting" us from that.
2008-11-03 18:55:11
147.   Jacob Burch
143 144 has the possible fun-times-for-all possibility. If the independents split (which they should, if Lieberman's continues the way his backing has been this year), it would come up to Dick Cheney to decide who the Veep is. Fun times for all!
2008-11-03 18:55:42
148.   Jon Weisman
145 - 20 calls in 21 days, and no one else could get through? :)

I hate political calls too, by the way - from any party.

2008-11-03 18:56:30
149.   Jacob Burch
146 I believe the get-out-of-jail card is what I mentioned--you don't actually have to vote. I could be wrong (or Starbucks could have been wrong in planning it), but I think that would allow them to escape any possible silly suits.
2008-11-03 18:57:25
150.   Eric Enders
148 So do I, actually. It was quite the moral dilemma for me, but I finally decided that the ends justify the means.
Show/Hide Comments 151-200
2008-11-03 18:59:23
151.   Icaros

Would the choice have to be a VP candidate currently on one of the tickets? Could the other Presidential candidate be chosen as VP under this scenario?

2008-11-03 19:00:01
152.   Xeifrank
148. It filled up my machine in less than two weeks. Nobody else could leave messages once the machine was full.
vr, Xei
2008-11-03 19:00:06
153.   Andrew Shimmin
145- The line is: IN MY HOME! IN MY BEDROOM! Where my wife sleeps... and my children play with their toys.
2008-11-03 19:00:26
154.   Jacob Burch
149 This:

Suggests that my random guessing is correct! Hurray for the stickerless!

2008-11-03 19:01:03
155.   Jacob Burch
151 Why I do believe you're correct! Odd Couple, here we come!
2008-11-03 19:01:59
156.   D4P
I stopped answering the phone about a year ago. We get tons of wrong numbers and sales calls here in NC, plus calls from all of the organizations to whom we give donations. The political calls have made it worse.

It's fun to just let the phone ring and not pick up.

2008-11-03 19:03:04
157.   nme
149- the article I read mentioned that it is fine for a company to give goods away on voting day, you just can't give them away for voting. Ben and jerry's is doing this tomorrow night. You don't even have to lie about voting. Show up at Ben and Jerry's between 5pm and 8pm (I believe) and you will receive a free scoop of ice cream. Starbucks may be forced to adopt this policy since I highly doubt that they will welch on that offer.

and if that is the case, then my situation just became about a million times worse. Now every homeless person living in pacific beach (there are a TON of them) will be coming in for coffee. Excellent.

2008-11-03 19:03:05
158.   Jacob Burch
155 Another article I found suggests the new congress would make the votes--so it would take even more zaniness to get a tie in the senate. But if, if!
2008-11-03 19:04:26
159.   das411
Is anybody else ready to smack the first person that mantions 2012?
2008-11-03 19:04:50
160.   Bill Crain
150 tempts me to violate Godwin's law, but, if I remember correctly, it was Eric Enders who told me about it, so I won't.

(Disclosure: by "told me about it" I mean "made me feel compelled to look it up on Wikipedia.")

2008-11-03 19:06:46
161.   Jacob Burch
157 I used the word "lie" tongue firmly placed on cheek.
2008-11-03 19:06:47
162.   Eric Enders
146 "I just read that it is against federal law for Starbucks to give away coffee for voting... But isn't the point of democracy to vote? If a company wants to encourage the act of voting, regardless of how you vote, I fail to see how we need a law "protecting" us from that."

One possible reason is that even the act of encouraging people to vote is partisan, because high voter turnout greatly favors one party over the other.

My pledge to not participate in this thread has been really unsuccessful so far. So much for willpower.

2008-11-03 19:06:56
163.   bhsportsguy
159 I guarantee this, whomever wins tomorrow, will not quote Chase Utley's parade speech.
2008-11-03 19:07:07
164.   D4P
I'm not ready to smack anyone that mantions anything.
2008-11-03 19:07:42
165.   bhsportsguy
162 I still think Texas has a good chance of making the BCS title game if Penn State loses.
2008-11-03 19:12:11
166.   Humma Kavula
159 "2012," the new film from director Roland Emmerich, will be released in theaters on July 10, 2009.
2008-11-03 19:14:21
167.   Icaros

Who's playing HAL?

2008-11-03 19:15:03
168.   das411
166 , unless it's about the London Olympics somebody is going on my list. Which is not nearly the size of Bob's obelisk but is a start.

and yes D4P, you're on it after 164 ;)

2008-11-03 19:15:37
169.   Marty
I just had 3 crowns done and my head is starting to ache. But I'd go through it without pain killers if it meant I could outlaw the initiative process.
2008-11-03 19:16:05
170.   Humma Kavula
2008-11-03 19:19:14
171.   Icaros
Post-apocalyptic science fiction isn't what it used to be.
2008-11-03 19:19:45
172.   Andrew Shimmin
The Electoral College meets 12/15 this year. If they don't elect a President, the House is constitutionally obligated (by the twelfth amendment) to do it, immediately. Which is pretty funny. It would be a lame duck session of the current congress, since the new one won't be seated till January 3rd, it seems like. So, it's possible that if the current Congress couldn't come to an agreement (they would; on the first day), the next one could take over. If they still couldn't figure it out by March 4th, then Dick Cheney takes office until they do.

New funniest possible outcome?

Anyway, it won't be a tie.

2008-11-03 19:20:32
173.   Jacob Burch
172 Cheney is out--it would be Pelosi.
2008-11-03 19:21:08
174.   Andrew Shimmin
By the way, what a bunch a whiners. When I was a little boy, I dreamed that a day would come when I would be called upon to determine how chickens should be killed in this state. Why do you all want to rob me of this?
2008-11-03 19:24:09
175.   Humma Kavula
174 But you don't actually get to decide that. You get to choose between the status quo and some new option. A or B. Yes or No.

If you wanted to have a write-in system for propositions, in which everybody writes down exactly what they think in essay form and that is tallied, I think I could get on board with that.

2008-11-03 19:24:12
176.   Bill Crain
Fifty percent (plus one) of us think that you should be required to do the job entirely by yourself, using only a rusty paperclip.
2008-11-03 19:27:48
177.   Andrew Shimmin
The thing I want to know is, if that prop passes, where are they going to find enough little girls to hug each of the chickens before it gets put down? It's my understanding that that's what the commercial promised.

I'm not particularly familiar with the minds of little girls, but I'm guessing chicken hugging isn't high on their list of things to do. Especially not on the kind of industrial scale necessary to support the current state poultry market needs.

2008-11-03 19:30:15
178.   Bill Crain
Exactly why we need to reinstate the draft.
2008-11-03 19:33:34
179.   Icaros
It's too bad we can't discuss the merits and/or demerits of Prop 1 here. There have been some good public transit discussions at DT over the years, and the insight would be nice. Seems like a fairly party-free debate.

I really haven't even seen any commercials about Prop 1. Does that mean it has a snowball's chance in hell of passing?

2008-11-03 19:37:53
180.   fanerman
179 Prop 1 does seem pretty non-partisan.
2008-11-03 19:40:46
181.   KG16
128 - I fully expect an election in my life time to get thrown to the House (and Senate for Veep). I just don't expect it to be this year, I think it will take a third party nominee winning a couple of states some time in the future.

But it's funny, I remember talking to my dad when I was in high school about crazy things that could happen. A president being impeached, a president losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college, and I think there was one other thing, maybe a recall. His answer was something along the lines of, "it'll never happen." Then we saw the last 12 years and now all bets are off in our house on politics.

2008-11-03 19:46:25
182.   KG16
179 - there is a not small fraction of people who are going to vote against all the bonds (even the one's for sick kids and veterans) because of the fiscal turmoil that the state budget is.

But according to the Field Poll ( - click on archives), 1A is ahead 47-42 with 11% undecided. Typically, undecideds break No because of a preference for the status quo, but a five point lead isn't too bad.

2008-11-03 19:47:39
183.   Jon Weisman
180 - You can give it a shot, though I would tend to think that much of the pro-con falls under typical party lines.
2008-11-03 19:52:59
184.   Indiana Jon
I don't know exactly how these "propositions" work, but it sounds like fun. At least when you go to the polls to vote tomorrow it will feel like something is not already decided.
2008-11-03 19:53:21
185.   Bill Crain
Personally, I'm not responding to the discussion because anything I write about this would leave the meaning of the word "nonpartisan" as torn and bleeding as a chicken killed by Shimmin with a chainsaw.
2008-11-03 19:54:29
186.   Icaros



Maybe instead of a debate we can just fantasize about how cool it would be for Icaros to make DT Picnic Day in two hours without having to fly...when he's in his 60s.

2008-11-03 19:55:53
187.   Jon Weisman
2008-11-03 19:59:41
188.   Jacob Burch
As with a lot of these bills, it seems to be a matter of "Not the greatest time/Not the best written bill." From there, it comes down to how much you love the issue to throw your vote behind it and hope for the best. While that line can often be drawn based on a party ticket, I'm fairly moderate have had let various issues come and go.

I am supportive of this measure, however, just for being a public transit nut. But anyone who tells me they're voting against it for the above mentioned reasons has a certainly respectable and viable opinion.

2008-11-03 20:01:40
189.   Icaros

Yeah, that pretty much describes my view on it, as well.

2008-11-03 20:06:35
190.   Greg Brock
Vote Whig!
2008-11-03 20:08:59
191.   Andrew Shimmin
I heard a rumor that the Whigs weren't very nice to their chickens.
2008-11-03 20:11:43
192.   Bill Crain
190 191
Finally sanity returns to the discussion!
2008-11-03 20:12:07
193.   Greg Brock
By the by, John Meacham's piece in Newsweek on Andrew Jackson is an absolute must read.


It was homework tonight for my class.

2008-11-03 20:44:40
194.   Jon Weisman
Is Cheney ill? He looks dramatically different.
2008-11-03 20:50:29
195.   Andrew Shimmin
He was in the hospital a couple weeks ago, but it didn't sound like it was serious. Or, at least, not out of the ordinary.
2008-11-03 21:04:19
196.   nme
194- his body thetan levels are dangerously high.
2008-11-03 21:15:34
197.   Bumsrap
Boston Legal was loaded for moose tonight.
2008-11-03 22:21:36
198.   Eric Stephen
I've been making pointless comments over on the baseball thread, and I forgot this election thread existed. What a maroon I am!
2008-11-03 22:26:11
199.   Eric Enders
Nonpartisan political question: Which current MLB player is most likely to become the next Jim Bunning/Vinegar Bend Mizell/John Tener?
2008-11-03 22:35:48
200.   Eric Stephen
Sean Casey?

I would guess someone like Curt Schilling, maybe, or perhaps Doug Glanville if he was still active.

I seem to remember Peter Gammons writing long ago that George Lombard might one day be President.

Show/Hide Comments 201-250
2008-11-03 22:40:17
201.   KG16
143 - well, the fun part is that in the House, each State gets one vote. I honestly have no idea what would happen if it came to that. Some States have an even number of Reps, so they might not get a vote. Plus, I don't know if DC gets a vote, so what happens if it ends up 25-25.

Oh, and it's the new Congress that votes, not the outgoing one.

199 - hmmm, I could see Shilling run for office. And for some reason - one that I simply can't fathom - Ben Sheets name popped into my head when I first read your question.

2008-11-03 23:01:22
202.   Marty
199 Jeff Kent
2008-11-03 23:05:18
203.   Eric Enders
For me the first one who came to mind was Smoltz, who's well-spoken, beloved in a certain area of the country, and famously opinionated on at least one hot-button political issue.
2008-11-03 23:13:13
204.   Andrew Shimmin
Democrats control a majority of the House state delegations ( It's interesting that it would be the 111th, not the 110th; how did they get around the requirement that the House meet "immediately"? Or do they just seat the next Congress early?

I would bet D4P's life that none of this will matter. Please, somebody bet me D4P's life. . . please?

2008-11-03 23:18:43
205.   Eric Stephen
Add a free chicken sandwich at Chick-fil-A for voters tomorrow.
2008-11-03 23:20:26
206.   KG16
204 - the new Congress is sworn in on January 3, the Electoral Votes aren't counted until January 6.

2008-11-03 23:30:32
207.   Eric Enders
Check with your local Chick-Fil-A first -- only certain ones are participating.
2008-11-03 23:31:52
208.   KG16
the only Chick-Fil-A I know of is on campus at Long Beach State. There might be one in Irvine. But that's it.
2008-11-03 23:43:07
209.   old dodger fan
Wow. I feel so ripped off. I could have stopped by Chick-Fil-A for a sandwich and Starbucks for coffee on the way to work and not spent a dime but I voted by mail and am out of the country. I gotta time my trips better.
2008-11-03 23:49:02
210.   Eric Enders
Springsteen debuts new song at Obama rally tonight:

My first impression is that it's, well, pretty bad.

Supposedly it's going to be on a new album coming out in January.

2008-11-04 00:17:20
211.   Andrew Shimmin
If Obama wins tomorrow, I want to hear James Brown's Funky President. I recognize that some of the lyrics aren't politically helpful, but I don't care. It's a great song.

If McCain wins, I want to hear Sly and the Family Stone's Underdog.

2008-11-04 00:19:24
212.   nme
210- when will these "used to be great" artists realize that, at a certain point, we just really don't want to hear the drivel they have left in their tanks? And for that matter, ACDC releasing an album solely through WalMart. Yeah, real rock and roll guys.
2008-11-04 00:29:52
213.   Eric Enders
212 Point taken, but Springsteen isn't who you want to be holding up as an example of that. As recently as last year he released a spectacularly good album. He and Dylan have each done some of their most vital work after age 40.
2008-11-04 04:36:05
214.   Ken Arneson
Prop 1A is the one issue in this election I've wrestled with the most.

On the one hand: (a) it's very expensive, and (b) transit between cities, unlike transit within cities, is not something that strikes me as an urgent or unsolved problem. I've never heard anyone complain about how hard it is to get from the Bay Area to LA, and therefore (c) I'm not convinced ridership levels will approach those you see on similar trains in Europe and Japan to make this project pay for itself, which makes me (d) even more worried than I currenly am about the solvency of the California state government in these difficult economic times.

And yet: (e) high-speed trains are cool, (f) it would be better for the environment than driving and flying and helps the long-term goal of reducing US dependence on foreign oil, (g) it's not likely to get any cheaper if we wait to build this later, and (h) if it did get cheaper to wait, it's because we're in a severe deflationary recession, and this project would be exactly the kind of government infrastructure investment that you need to get you out of such a recession.

In the end, I think if this measure fails, it will be more because of bad timing with the economy and the state's budget problems than because the idea itself is bad.

2008-11-04 07:41:14
215.   MollyKnight
We had two voting machines for my table and one was broken. This resulted in a two hour wait.
2008-11-04 07:45:40
216.   Marty
There were over 100 people waiting at my polling place at 6:45 a.m. this morning. I'm just about to walk over. This could take awhile.
2008-11-04 07:57:30
217.   Ken Arneson
If my 16-month-old were the representative voter in this election, we'd be hearing all sorts of news stories about all the tragic shoelessness people are suffering in the world. Everyone must wear shoes!
2008-11-04 08:04:20
218.   ToyCannon
Has anyone ever read the fine print of a proposition instead of the summaries? Besides the Lawyers here who created all this gobblygook in the 1st place.
2008-11-04 08:05:45
219.   Disabled List
My roommate waited over an hour in line (or "on line", as east coasters say for some reason) to vote this morning. I'm hearing lots of other similar stories. Vote by mail, people! There's absolutely no reason why this shouldn't be available to voters in every single state.

Am I allowed to say that I totally support Prop 1A? I'm a big fan of high-speed rail, and this could set the path for California to become the trendsetter in cutting-edge, energy efficient transportation alternatives. This country badly needs to invest in its infrastructure, and I need a better way to get to Vegas than the I-15.

2008-11-04 08:17:18
220.   Eric Stephen
I only read that if I'm not swayed by the arguments and rebuttals in the voter guide.

I can't remember the exact issue, but in one of the last few years there were two propositions that were very similar (was it Indian gaming?), and I read some of the fine print on each of those issues.

2008-11-04 08:21:55
221.   Eric Stephen
In all my years of voting, I've never voted in the morning before today. I had to wait 30-ish minutes, but it was enjoyable time and I like being done before my day began.

My free 12-ounce decaf is tasting pretty good right now, and I hope the Chick-fil-A in Oceanside participates in the free chicken sandwich giveaway for lunch!

2008-11-04 08:31:19
222.   Ken Noe
Long lines of traffic in Alabama early this morning, but by the time I went to vote an hour ago they had thinned out. I was in and out in a few minutes, no hitches.
2008-11-04 08:34:24
223.   Marty
My polling place was actually for three separate precincts. my line wasn't too bad, only took about 20 minutes. One line was really long and a few people didn't find out they were in the wrong line until they got to the table.
2008-11-04 08:40:51
224.   D4P
"Final polling update and projections coming very soon" at 538.
2008-11-04 09:09:55
225.   still bevens
I voted by mail because I wanted to avoid all the lines. Saw two interesting things on the way to work. My polling station at Culver City City Hall seemed like there was no serious line to speak of, so I could have gone there this morning to get an 'I voted sticker' =(. However going about 5 blocks further on the same street I passed a polling station in Palms and about 150 people waiting in line. I guess theres a big difference v. Culver City and Los Angeles or maybe it mostly has to do with the density of the two areas? Thought it was pretty interesting nevertheless.
2008-11-04 09:18:21
226.   Humma Kavula
Wait time in Hawthorne: Zero minutes.

OK, that's a lie. There was one guy in front of me. It took him about 15 seconds to get through the line.

I have a sticker.

2008-11-04 09:23:16
227.   Ken Arneson
I've created a Partisan Election Chat thread over on the Fairpole blog, to hold your Rule 5 violations. Check the top of the sidebar for the link.
2008-11-04 09:27:43
228.   ToyCannon
I already lost my "I voted sticker" but I still have my stub.
2008-11-04 09:34:07
229.   Disabled List
227 Sorry, Ken, I won't be going there. I have high opinions of most Toaster posters, and I'd like to keep it that way.

There are plenty of other places on the internet to participate in Rule 5 riots.

2008-11-04 09:34:21
230.   Jon Weisman
228 - I'm wearing my stub. We'll see how that goes.
2008-11-04 09:36:09
231.   Ken Arneson
229 That's fine, and probably wise.
2008-11-04 09:52:38
232.   caseybarker

If you thought that was funny, check him out at the Alfred E. Smith dinner in Manhattan. The videos are on Youtube, search McCain charity event. They are hilarious.

Proposition 8 has elicited some really mean behavior from both sides.

2008-11-04 09:55:53
233.   caseybarker

How about "Chocalate City" from Parliament. That song is excellent--choc full of funk and soul.

2008-11-04 09:59:27
234.   fanerman
So what's the running list of free stuff we could get for voting?

Starbuck's, Ben 'n Jerry's, Krispy Kreme, Chick Fil-A?

2008-11-04 10:00:14
235.   fanerman
Ah, I found it:

2008-11-04 10:03:27
236.   caseybarker

here, here. No on proposition X, Y, and Z.

2008-11-04 10:12:54
237.   Jim Hitchcock
BTW, a political blog that I've been reading for years, is Marc's a bit of an old lefty, but he takes on both sides of the political spectrum with equal fervor. Or glee. Whatever you want to call it.

And he could always use some fresh blood in the comments section.

Anyway, he's a great writer. He's just ending his afiliation with the L.A. Weekly (he used to be on KPCC quite a bit with his RadioNation show. Worth a look.

2008-11-04 10:15:57
238.   Andrew Shimmin
Chocolate City is a little talky for my tastes. It'd be a step up from the Brooks and Dunn he's been using, but he can do better.
2008-11-04 10:17:19
239.   KG16
218 - Time permitting, I'll read through the props, but I didn't this year. But then, I'm one of the lawyers in the crowd.
2008-11-04 11:02:29
240.   LAT
This is a strange question but many of you are very net and music savvy and I can't find the answer anywhere. Not to mention, you are a very helpful gang. Although far more mainstream than any music discussed here, Mrs. LAT and I are going to Madona on Thursday at DS. The tickets say the show starts at 7:30. I can't find any information about whether there is a warm up band (are they even still called a "warm-up" band?) or whether she is coming out at 7:30. Anyone know where to look or know the answer to this. Anyone been to a concert at DS. Is parking more or less the same as a game? Any tips are appreciated.
2008-11-04 11:06:38
241.   KG16
240 - I think the preferred term is "opening act/band". I highly doubt she'll be on stage at 7:30, mainly because I've yet to be to a concert that started on time. can't say if there is an opening act, though.
2008-11-04 11:17:11
242.   The Mootz
240 I saw Springsteen there and parking was $20. Additionally, the regular Dodger concession stands were not open, so no Dodger dogs.
2008-11-04 16:41:36
243.   old dodger fan
134 The website fivethirtyeight appears to be blocked in the People's Republic of China.
2008-11-04 17:56:21
244.   LogikReader
Nonpartisan Election Chat! Is that why the title bar is "black" and not "blue" or "red"?
2008-11-04 18:05:10
245.   LogikReader
Just got back from voting!

Did any of you house your ballots in those cardboard sleeves? Doesn't it remind you of those RCA Selectavision Videodiscs?



2008-11-04 18:36:44
246.   Gen3Blue
MLB has two teams in FLORIDA and two teams in OHIO. And I have always loved a series like Kansas City vs. St. Louis both in Missouri.
2008-11-04 19:21:05
247.   nme
Well, to anyone interested, Starbucks was like the seventh circle of hell today (I work at a particularly busy one). And somehow, it was somewhat exciting. Amazingly, getting a free cup of coffee puts people in a good mood, whereas most mornings, they are generally grumpy and in a rush. That being said, a line out the door from 7AM-noon was a bit much.
2008-11-04 19:47:32
248.   Eric Stephen
I'm watching someone on CNN "live via hologram". What the heck?
2008-11-04 20:13:27
249.   Jon Weisman
I'm back to .500: 3-3.
2008-11-04 20:42:26
250.   Andrew Shimmin
247- How was the tipping? Did people really not tip on a free cup of coffee?
Show/Hide Comments 251-300
2008-11-04 20:49:40
251.   LogikReader
Four years ago, back in college, one of my peers was well in tune with an Illinois Senator named Barack Obama.

I could remember way back when how unfamiliar the name was, but my buddy was all about Obama. He'd tell me Obama this, and Obama that, and he was so proud of him as a Senator. Way back when, he saw something special and proclaimed he was perfect to rise as a Presidential Candidate.

Obama is now our President Elect, and I'm thinking of that buddy of mine. I can only imagine how he's feeling tonight.

2008-11-04 20:51:00
252.   LogikReader
Oh yes, over on LOCKS of the Week (just below the link to Molly's site), I posted some personal thoughts regarding the election itself.
2008-11-04 20:54:37
253.   nme
250- no, they actually tipped quite well. On lady turned around after i gave her her coffee and told the rest of the line that they had better tip of free coffee. They all did. My wallet thanks her.
2008-11-04 20:56:21
254.   nme
251- I will never forget seeing him speak at the 2004 DNC. I turned to my girlfriend at the time and said, "He will be the president of the US in 2012." I was a few years off.
2008-11-05 12:10:55
255.   Slipstream
224 I don't know if this has already been noted, but 538's final projection for the popular vote was 52.3 to 46.2.

In today's NY Times: "Mr. Obama was leading the popular vote over Senator John McCain, 52.3 percent to 46.4 percent, with most of the precincts reporting, according to The Associated Press."

Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.