Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
Jon's other site:
Screen Jam
TV and more ...
1) using profanity or any euphemisms for profanity
2) personally attacking other commenters
3) baiting other commenters
4) arguing for the sake of arguing
5) discussing politics
6) using hyperbole when something less will suffice
7) using sarcasm in a way that can be misinterpreted negatively
8) making the same point over and over again
9) typing "no-hitter" or "perfect game" to describe either in progress
10) being annoyed by the existence of this list
11) commenting under the obvious influence
12) claiming your opinion isn't allowed when it's just being disagreed with
On this date 40 years ago, the Times wrote, Atlanta turned down a Dodger offer of Willie Davis and Tom Haller for Joe Torre and Felipe Alou. (Thanks to Keith Thursby at the Daily Mirror for the link.)
Atlanta countered with Rico Carty to accompany Torre in place of Alou, but the Dodgers rejected that – which probably turned out to be a mistake. Alou was mostly heading downhill after 1968. On the other hand, Carty, who missed the 1968 season because of tuberculosis, posted back-to-back OPS+ of 164 and 179 in 1969-70, though he averaged only 120 games per year. (Using the Similarity Scores method, Carty's stats are most similar to those of Pedro Guerrero.)
In any case, Carty wasn't even the big prize. Three months later in exchange for Orlando Cepeda, Torre (who had begun migrating from catcher to the corners of the infield) went to St. Louis and strung together six fine seasons, winning the National League Most Valuable Player award in 1971.
Davis and Haller continued to be productive for the Dodgers, so the non-trade wasn't a total loss for the team. And of course, Torre might eventually have blocked the development of Ron Cey or Steve Garvey. But Torre's near-presence might have made the 1969-1973 years a little less lean for Los Angeles.
Signing bonus - $1.5 million
Base salaries
2009 - $1.5 million
2010 - $3.5 million
2011 - $5.5 million
2012 - $8 million
2013 - $10 million
2014 - $10 million
Club option
2015 - $11 million (or a $500,000 buyout)
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2008/12/pedroia_breakdo.html
.279/.343/.467 Lowell career (110 OPS+)
.264/.334/.447 Blake career (105 OPS+)
Both will be 35 on opening day, average 20 HR and 50 BB per season. I think the comparison still stands. The Red Sox weren't banking on a .324 AVG, .879 OPS going forward.
I guess if you want to lose 100 games we could go that route.
I don't see how the comparison stands. Lowell has a terrible contract, just because the RedSox signed him to a terrible deal doesn't mean we should do the same for Blake. Would you want to sign Cabrerra to the Lugo deal just because the RedSox did so?
I think if we go into the season with an infield of DeWitt/Hu/Durham or Lopez/Loney, we might just lose enought games to have a pick high enough to do just that...
I would suggest "knowing a guy."
Do you really think that 3/20 for Blake would be that terrible? Maybe I am viewing this through the historically bad contracts we have given out in the past 10 years.
My view is that 3/20 is reasonable for a guy with a 105 OPS+ who stays healthy, can fill a couple of holes (primary 3B for a year or two and a backup at up to 4 positions) and prevents us from signing a couple of truly heinous contracts. Even if he is 35, it seems like a good balance of what he should get as opposed what the market would demand.
13 I respectfully disagree a DeWitt/Hu/Durham/Loney would score at least the 700 runs we scored last year.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
I'd give up Luis Maza for Sanchez.
I know the eyes can deceive, but I saw him make several good plays at 2b toward the end of last year. I don't seem to recall his missing many easy ones either.
Why has Ned made me feel this way?
I would love to be the ball boy along the foul line at Dodger stadium, but I don't "know" anyone that could get me the job
Hey never knew you were also an SFSU alum, I thought you were a Gaucho. When I was in Broadcasting at SF State, I did some research on the strike and SI Hayakawa by pulling out the wires of the PA during the protests almost made him the darling of Ronald Reagan and helped make him a US Senator, SI also had an amazing jazz collection and a great linguist, but fell asleep in the Senate quite a bit.
I tend to look at things this way:
Either Casey Blake plays third for us next year
Or
We sign one of Joe Crede, Felipe Lopez, Rich Aurilia, or Ray Durham.
Ned simply will not go into the season with Abreu in any of his plans. It's bad enough from an offensive standpoint that we may have to endure a .220/.285/.330 line from Hu (or, for that matter, Orlando Cabrera).
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Yes - at this point in his career just like Aurilia and Crede, he should be getting one year at a time unless he wants to take a huge discount for security reasons. He's an average 3rd baseman on the wrong side of 30. One year would be great if he accepts arbitration, if not then I look at Crede for one year. If not then I look at Aurilia for one year. All of them give you options if DeWitt completely fails against LHP. Crede is a defensive wizard compared to Blake and Aurilia, so he can make up the lack of OBP skills with defense.
Then again I'd be happy with a (Durham, Lopez, Vazquez)/Loretta platoon at 2nd with DeWitt at 3rd more then I would be with signing any of the aforementioned 3rd baseman.
If the Marlins can trade Cantu for anything I'll be impressed. He is Feliz except he comes with the worse hands and slowest feet in baseball. I'd love to get our hands on Jonathan Sanchez.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/12/03/teacher.ads.on.tests/index.html
Why is Casey Blake a better option then any of the players you mentioned?
Ray Durham has been the best of all of them in his career and can still tee off on RHP.
Felipe Lopez has had the most recent success after his stint in St. Louis and can play all over the infield
Aurilia matches up statistically with Blake, giving away some skills against RHP, but hits LHP at a better clip
Or a 2006 Ray Durham model which was better then the 2006 Kent model.
I think he sets himself apart in terms of flexibility in defensive positioning and his ability to stay healthy (Joe Crede has neither).
Strictly in terms of the big picture, signing Blake early allows Colletti to take focus off of the infield (where he is on the record as saying is his top priority) and concentrate on getting either Manny or a front line starter.
I can see where you might think a three year deal might be less than ideal, but on a two year offer, Blake/Dewitt is, in my estimation, better than DeWitt/Loretta/Durham (which would probably cost the same on a one-year basis anyway).
All of this becomes moot in my opinion if we can sign Orlando Hudson to a reasonable deal.
"1. Compute the runs created for the league with pitchers removed (basic form) RC = (H + BB + HBP)*(TB)/(AB + BB + HBP + SF)
2. Adjust this by the park factor RC' = RC*BPF
3. Assume that if hits increase in a park, that BB, HBP, TB increase at the some proportion.
4. Assume that Outs = AB - H (more or less) do not change at all as outs are finite.
5. Compute the number of H, BB, HBP, TB needed to produce RC', involves the quadratic formula. The idea for this came from the Willie Davis player comment in the Bill James New Historical Baseball Abstract. I think some others, including Clay Davenport have done some similar things.
6. Using these adjusted values compute what the league average player would have hit lgOBP*, lgSLG* in a park.
7. Take OPS+ = 100 *
(OBP/lgOBP* + SLG/lgSLG* - 1)"
I typically avoid debate, but this has got me engaged more than most discussions I see. (I spend time on LSU/SEC message boards on occasion. John's rules should be universal)
Is Rico Carty = Milton Bradley? As I recall Rico was also a head case but it wasn't anger but effort that was the problem. They both missed alot of games but when they played they produced at a high level.
Anybody remember Vinny blaming Rico Carty for bringing the one handed catch into baseball?
Jon's
Sorry about that...
Sounds like the previous Rentiena rumor was true, and somebody just jumped the gun on it.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Thanks for the reply. He does have health going for him, plus I like him, and I'd be more then happy to have him accept arbitration.
The executive asked not to be quoted by name. I asked him why not. "Are you serious?" he said. "No baseball man at the winter meetings is ever quoted by name. It's always 'a well informed source' or 'a high-ranking club executive' or 'a man in a position to know.' How long have you been coming to these meetings anyway?"
Thought everyone already knew he was a moro.....oh, never mind....
Casey wants a 3/20 deal but it sounds like no one will give it to him. Do you really think 2/15 is too much? League average SP's can get 10M a year in FA, and 3-4 years too. I think a league average 3B (especially with Blake's positional flexibility and health) should get at least 7M. I think he's 2 WAR, which means he should probably get around 10M for 1 year, if I understand correctly.
Also, Blake and Aurilia's last 2 years-
Blake 2007: .270/.339/.437
Blake 2008: .274/.345/.463
Aurilia 2007: .252/.304/.368
Aurilia 2008: .283/.332/413
Blake's considerably better, 2 years younger, and Aurilia is often hurt. I think thats worth a few million more.
Durham does put up similiar numbers,but he's hurt a lot, plays awful defense, and is also 2 years older than Blake.
I'm not saying signing Blake would be a great move, but I don't see why it would be so bad. Its low risk, and it fills a huge hole for the Dodgers. Unless we can get Crede on a cheap 1 year deal, or Orlando Hudson for a below market rate, I don't see a better alternative if we want to compete in '09.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8337
--The Rockies signed left-hander Mike Hampton in the 2000-01 offseason, and the Mets drafted third baseman David Wright with a compensation pick.
--The Padres signed shortstop Kurt Stillwell in the 1991-92 offseason, and the Royals drafted outfielder Johnny Damon with a compensation pick.
--The Reds signed left-hander John Smiley in the 1992-93 offseason, and the Twins drafted outfielder Torii Hunter with a compensation pick.
--The Giants signed left-hander Bud Black in the 1990-91 offseason, and the Blue Jays drafted outfielder Shawn Green with a compensation pick.
This John Perrotto article also has his Hall of Fame ballot. Eight yeses, but I enjoyed reading it.
"The Braves, Mariners and Nationals are among the teams interested in Dunn, major-league sources say, and his list of suitors could grow quickly.
Dunn, 29, also represents a fallback position for the Dodgers if they lose Manny Ramirez and the Angels if they lose Mark Teixeira."
Interesting to see us linked to Dunn. I'd prefer not to sign him to a long deal though.
Grain of Salt Warning...
Rosenthal did not quote anyone or cite a source. It's just in his delusional mind.
Ah yes. Forgot to mention that little aspect. Still, I've never seen us linked to Dunn by any "reputable" source before, FWIW. Not really Ned's type of player. Hits the ball out of the infield too much, I think.
http://tinyurl.com/5wj8qd
Nah, its only okay to play bad defense if you play it with grit.
Why the heck is Robothal trying to mention the Dodgers in any talk with Veritek. Come on Rosenthal, follow your own logic.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8885188/Market-shaping-up-for-Adam-Dunn?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49
Touche. I still think Blake would be better than many of the other Ned Alternatives™
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=gammons_peter
Stan from Tacoma
78 - Aw, shucks.
Got that from ESPN.
If the Braves sign AJ Burnett to that long of a deal, after giving up prospects for the overrated Javier Vazquez, and if the Giants trade Sanchez for very little and sign Renteria (a lot of "ifs") this will be a good week.
Joe Sheehan's Dodgers GM article seems to have been freed from behind the wall.
But offering Lowe 4/62 at his age is just asking for trouble. Dodgers were fortunate to get 4 very good years out of him. Walk away from the table.
Ray Durham - no.
Not sure why Sheehan is so down on Ivan DeJesus either.
In looking at what he proposes, doesn't that put our payroll in the $90 million range?
I pretty much think that his plan would get Ned fired and the McCourts run out of LA...wait. It's BRILLIANT!!
His problem is giving up home runs.
He'd be an excellent fit for a team whose ballpark suppresses homers, not sure how Atlanta's rank.
--
Yeah, I agree, I usually like Sheehan but thought that article was mostly way off base. Plus, Lowe has all but said he's not coming back anyway so why even bother wasting all that space on the idea. And while I kinda find Rickie Weeks intriguing that trade is unlikely. Anyway, provocative piece but kind of goofy ultimately.
They were not run out of town during the DePo years when the payroll was not as high.
Joe Sheehan breaks down baseball arbitration offers.
http://eastwindupchronicle.com/another-vote-against-signing-japanese-baseball-players/
Eastwindup Chronicle calls foul on Richard Griffin's claim that there's only a handful of MLB-type talented Japanese players.
The problem now is that payroll can't go down by anything other than a marginal amount once it has been raised.
Disaster? Debacle? Nay, PR nightmare of Old Testament proportions.
Plaschke, Simers, and, truthfully, myself would rip them to shreds.
------------------------------------
TRINITY PARKING GARAGE, 1815 Trinity
Criminal Trespass Warning: A non-UT subject was observed approaching individuals, in an attempt to sell them tickets to a sporting event. During the investigation, the subject was located near the exit of the garage. The subject was issued a written Criminal Trespass Warning and was escorted from the area. Occurred on: 11-30-08, at 1:32 PM.
UNIVERSITY TEACHING CENTER, 105 West 21st Street
Criminal Trespass Warning (2 Counts): Two non-UT subjects were discovered camping on the 3rd floor. During the investigation, both subjects informed the officer that they were in town for the Texas A&M football game and needed a place to sleep. Both subjects were issued written Criminal Trespass Warnings and were escorted from the area. Occurred on: 11-28-08, at 3:51 AM.
DKR- TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUM, 2200 Robert Dedman
Robbery: Several UT staff members, faculty, students, and Texas Exes discovered a fraction of a percentage point had been taken and was transported across state lines. The percentage point was discovered north of the Red River at the campus of another Big 12 South University.
I think you should start sharpening your pitchforks now.
That's hilarious...
On that note, with the Pedroia signing only offering around $1.5 million for his 3rd year, than Russel Martin or Ethier shouldn't command much more than that right? After all they didn't have a MVP™ award under their resume.
Mine is sharpened already. I have been using it on the Co-Defensive Coordinators at LSU who will soon lose their job to Ed Orgeron (hopefully).
Casey Blake, Paul Byrd, Darren Oliver, Dennys Reyes and Brian Shouse are all marginal talents that could accept the offer, but only Blake and maybe Byrd would make enough in arbitration to outweigh their 2009 contributions or make eating their contract painful
Did he leave out Jason Varitek on purpose?
Whatever Varitek would make in arbitration would certainly outweigh his 2009 contribution.
Weeks: .259/.366/.407
DeJesus: .324/.419/.423
Now add in the fact that Weeks is a lousy 2B, while DeJesus gets good reviews as a defensive SS, but because of a marginal arm might have to move to 2B. If he made the move to 2B, DeJesus would be an outstanding defensive 2B.
Weeks' inability to even hit .260 in AA should have bee a warning sign that he would have trouble hitting for average in the majors, and look what has happened: two years in a row as a .230 hitter. As for power, DeJesus hit only one less homer than Weeks in AA, 7 compared to Weeks' 8. Where Weeks beat DeJesus in power was in doubles and triples.
What are the Sox' other options at starting catcher? Varitek stinks, sure, but that's relative. He's still likely to comfortably outperform any of the other realistic catching options they have. (Unless they want to trade a bundle of prospects to Texas for Laird, Salty, Teagarden or Ramirez.)
There's also the non-negligible value he contributes as team captain/Sox legend/PR god. We always think of that stuff as silly, and mostly it is, but it does have a certain value that teams can and should be able to put a dollar amount on.
LA LA LA (hands over ears) I CAN'T HEAR YOU OHHHH SAY CAN YOU SEEEEEEEEE...
Weeks' overall minor league record puts DeJesus's to shame. And you know it.
This is the most publicity the NHL has gotten since, well, ever-- so I think the commissioner should probably give him a medal. Or a firm pat on the rear.
I thought Ed O was already Tennessee bound?
Sanchez is the young left-hander with nasty stuff.
Anyway, this seems like the most ridiculous pro sports suspension in recent memory.
Widely assumed, but not official. He is going to have a heck of a staff with his dad and Ed O coming over...But that is not going to happen because Les Miles is going to do the right thing and hire him...
"If the Angels are inclined to wait it out with Teixeira, rather than commit all those dollars to a pitcher, there doesn't seem to be another option out there for Sabathia (whose agent has tried, unsuccessfully it seems, to involve the Dodgers and Giants)."
http://tinyurl.com/6lnv8u
Sheinin is a smart, responsible reporter, so I'd imagine he has some basis for that aside. But it is just an aside.
I'll say this, Orgeron's love affair with the SC fans will be seriously tested if he goes to LSU. I'll still love the guy, but others won't for sure.
Keith Law said that the Angels really do not have much interest in CC, so that adds more to the case.
How pathetic that the best free agent pitcher based on age and production since Greg Maddux hit the market is available, wants to play for us, but we aren't interested because the Casey Blake's of the world are our future.
But we traded our number 1 prospect for him so he has to be good, right? : (
And this is a guy who has already publicly ridiculed Francophone players and was accused of:
1) calling a player "a monkey" (denied by Avery)
2) accusing another player of faking having cancer (denied by Avery)
The Kings and Rangers players didn't want him around anymore and it seems that the Stars, who are in last place, don't want him around anymore.
And again, you already know this, but Nashville is in the less-hitter-friendly "American" division of the PCL, and even within that division it's a relative pitcher's paradise, with a park factor of around 95 every year.
Minor league stats aside, I assume you have some reason for dismissing Weeks' major league OBPs of .363 at age 23 and .374 at age 24?
Anyway, clearly we disagree strongly. Perhaps we should leave it at that. It's probably a waste of time treating this idea as if it were actually a likelihood instead of the figment of Joe Sheehan's imagination.
This makes me angry
Amen
I am not a "everybody hug one another PC guy" which you can probably tell from other post in the past, but I do think that human decency has become something just a bit under valued.
No part of Sean Avery is a gentleman. That we as a culture generally don't hold each other to a social contract for acceptable behavior anymore is sad.
He should be socially ostracized and censured for making those comments, the people closest to him should pull him aside and let him know that he has shamed them and himself.
I am glad he was punished by the league - being a public figure should not give you public license to defame, insult, and harrass others with impunity.
Shame is not a bad thing. It tells you when you are out of line. Would be a better world if more people felt it.
Weeks played in the eastern half of the PCL, point taken, but I am not aware of how many parks in that half of the league exactly qualify as pitcher-friendly, or in what parks Weeks did his damage. The problem with even citing what Weeks did in Triple A in our conversation is that DeJesus hasn't played in Triple A yet, so there is no way to compare what Weeks did there to DeJesus' record.
As for Week's OBA's in the majors, yes, they have been good, but I said before that I am in the minority here in caring about batting average, and I think a young player is more likely to improve power and patience over time than batting average if that is a weakness in his game. Can a player do other things that will keep him in the majors if he hits in the .230's? As Adam Dunn proves, yes, but you can count on me to value a player like that a lot less than others will.
And you didn't even address the matter of defense that I raised. Weeks is poor in that department. DeJesus is not.
I like the idea but it has been suggested for years that Weeks move to CF just like Hanley Ramirez. He not only would have to arm wrestle Keith Law over the idea but plenty of other people. If we were lucky enough to get Weeks, I'd play him at 2nd in 2009 and move him to CF in 2010 after Jones is gone.
I would not trade DeJesus for him but if he was available I'd love the Dodgers to find out what it would take. I'm weak for Weeks and glad to see that Eric likes him even more. Hate to see Canuck on the other side of the fence but what are you going to do. I do think he cherry picked Weeks AA season to make his point but then I've cherry picked his 2007 Aug/Sept to make mine so it is all good.
I wasn't tying CC to Blake, just using Blake as an example of the type of player we are talking about today (Durham, Aurilia, Blake, Cabrera, Loretta) instead of CC.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
They usually try it with middle infielders with speed who have shown an aptitude for going back on flyballs. Davy Lopes, Juan Samuel, Robin Yount, and many others have made the transition and all of them were older then Weeks.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Yes, but I expect Weeks to be able to put up an 800-825 OPS or I wouldn't be bothering to talk him up. He has the ability to slug 450 and we know he can give up a .375 OBP.
I am now officially obligated to beat the drum for my favorite pet project, which is signing Furcal and moving him to CF when DeJesus is ready.
Don't forget Jimmy Wynn, he was a SS and was converted to CF.
http://tinyurl.com/6zd9x9
The stats on the back are very limited, but of course completely representative of Washington's role. Only games, runs, steals, and caught stealings are shown, and the title only says "Major League Base Running Record." That's quite a unique card.
I don't think Paul will ever be an everyday player. More likely he is a 4th OF in the majors who can play all three fields, but if he had the chance, I wonder if he could be a playable CF who handles the LH side of a platoon. He hits righties well, but really struggles against lefties.
His IsoP that last two years is .142, the average ML CF last year was .152. The walk rate for the average CF is 9.1%, his walk rate the last 2 years is 10.2%. It seems to me he has the potential to be an above average offensive CF. However, I don't know how his defense rates. I think I remember hearing it's pretty shameful.
To be fair, it's a Thursday...against the Raiders. And apparently NFL Network (or the local Fox affiliate, I'm not sure) bought the remaining tickets so the game will be televised locally, even for those without NFL Network.
Raiders are their biggest rival even if we stink.
Sounds like a great comp, except he hits RHP while Payton hit LHP which makes Paul a little more valuable. He might be a 4th outfielder or he could end up being on the good side of a platoon with a lefty masher like Matt Diaz.
Jacksonville: .95
Vegas: 1.08
Lambo in Albuquerque could be fun. I've had to relearn how to spell Albuquerque all over again.
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117996690.html?categoryid=14&cs=1
Wow...
Comment status: comments have been closed. Baseball Toaster is now out of business.