Baseball Toaster was unplugged on February 4, 2009.
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With cellphones and Blackberrys doing enough buzzing to process pollen, baseball's Winter Meetings got underway today, appropriately enough, in the gambling capital of the Great 48: Las Vegas, USA. And while the neon lights shone on Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, CC Sabathia and Manny Ramirez, it looks like the Dodgers' first spin of the wheel has landed on 37-year-old Mark Loretta, the 37-year-old infielder whom Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports will supplant Nomar Garciaparra as a right-handed utility infielder. (The Dodgers haven't confirmed, but Gurnick at least has an on-the-record source: Loretta's agent, Bob Garber.)
Loretta EQAed an above-average .267 for Houston last season, and has had an on-base percentage of at least .345 every season since 1997. Against left-handed pitchers last season, Loretta's on-base percentage was .419 - meaning that he could form a platoon with Blake DeWitt. Gurnick, citing Garber, said that Loretta would earn $1.4 million next season.
* * *
As the Dodgers and others try to corral the best baseball players in the world, perhaps the timing is right for this tangent: Malcolm Gladwell's latest piece from The New Yorker, "Most Likely to Succeed: How do we hire when we can't tell who's right for the job?" Interesting stuff, particularly with regards to education, which I know is a favorite topic of numerous Dodger Thoughts commenters.
* * *
Update: Bill Shaikin of the Times argues that the Dodgers should sign Sabathia:
What are they waiting for?
The Dodgers need an ace in the starting rotation, in the clubhouse and in the community. Sabathia dedicates himself to all three. ...
The Dodgers have been burned so often by Colletti's multiyear free agent signings -- injuries to Jason Schmidt, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra and Bill Mueller, poor performances by Andruw Jones and Brett Tomko and the superfluousness of Juan Pierre -- that McCourt understandably is wary of the kind of proposal Sabathia would take seriously.
Yet Colletti said "special circumstance" could compel the Dodgers to extend an offer beyond their general limit of three years.
He said he has discussed the possibility of bidding five years -- or longer -- with McCourt, but with no authorization to actually do so. ...
Sabathia wants to be a Dodger. If that really means something to McCourt, then he should go get him. Sabathia devotes himself to reviving youth baseball in the inner city, so the Dodgers couldn't beat this deal: Sign him for $130 million, and he'll build 50 youth fields by himself.
The Dodgers remain in need of a shortstop and, persistent reports out of Los Angeles to the contrary, reignited talks about Wilson last week. But there was been no known continuation over the weekend or at these meetings.
Is this a shot at Tony Jackson?
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08344/933813-63.stm?cmpid=pirates.xml
Also, you can sponsor the newest Dodger for the low low price of $25 dollars,(and even cheaper if you allow B-R to lower its rate in the coming days.)
http://blogs.pe.com/prosports/mlb/dodgers/
As I said below, I'm on board with this signing. He's a nice role player and PH. More durable/reliable than Nomar at this point. I'll be less on board with it if they made him a starter, but that seems very unlikely.
That Diamond piece Tripon linked above also includes bit on Russell Martin:
>> On Russell Martin: "He knows there's more to do in completing more of his potential. I'd really like him defensively to really manage the staff." Colletti added he wanted to see improvement with Martin stopping the running game and that A.J. Ellis could be a candidate to be the backup catcher.<<
(NIce, I'd much rather Ellis given a shot than bringing in an overpriced veteran.)
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=3105
Matt Young was the first.
I don't want to see Hoffman as a Dodger. Hearing "Hells Bells" at Dodger Stadium is just wrong.
CC is the BEST pitcher in baseball. Pitchers his type that actually hit free agency are once in a decade....once in twenty years????....maybe???
CC has indicated he WANTS to be a Dodger. Granted, he probably has some self-interest when he says it BUT....
This team is talking about filling other holes before signing CC???
I mean, if you have even a REMOTE chance to sign this guy, don't you say screw it we have to take advantage and sign him asap and worry about our other holes later?
Isn't that the right mindset to take regarding this Dodger team and CC???
It's not my birthday, but thank you.
"Hopefully we're getting close. I don't have anything for you yet. We're still talking."
Ned keeps announcing to the world (and Blake's agent) how much the Dodgers want Blake back. Not exactly good negotiating strategy...
Looks like the Latino Utility Infielder™ role is filled for 2009.
Maybe next year we'll get Chase Utley and Dan Uggla.
http://tinyurl.com/5beoej
Good enough for me!
http://tinyurl.com/672vwy
http://tinyurl.com/672vwy
Either the Dodgers really are broke or
They are slow-playing this thing to death.
Ned, if you sign CC and he falls apart it really, really won't be your fault. Unlike Andruw Jones who was showing signs of decline and Jason Schmidt who was, by baseball standards, old, this signing will not cost you your job.
Pull! The! Trigger!
Speaking of which: Sabathia has thrown a whopping 494 innings over the past 2 seasons, tops in the majors.
So it's not as if there's no reason to be concerned about his continuing longevity. I wouldn't be that surprised if he turns into Darren Dreifort.
Loretta: .280/.350/.383/95/4HR
Blake: .274/.345/.463/110/21HR
Plus Loretta only played 101 games last year. Still, it would be tempting to me to put DeWitt at third and see if Hu and DeJesus eventually can emerge up the middle. Ned's admiration for Blake, nonetheless, is boundless. We will sign him.
82.1 IP, 3-8, 4.81 ERA, 82 K, 20 BB, .280/.342/.442 allowed, average game score: 50
His last 16 games:
124.2 IP, 10-2, 1.59 ERA, 123 K, 20 BB, .221/.258/.287 allowed, average game score: 68
He's prone to spells of bad pitching, like anyone. But he certainly didn't look worn out at the end of the season, although I'm sure the pending FA contract provided plenty of motivation.
Incidentally, he had only had four starts last year on three days' rest (the last four of the season, incl. the playoff game against the Phillies).
As one of my profs used to say, that's some tense tense.
Would you rather give the money to Manny? I've never seen someone hit like that, but he also has a history of, um, doing strange things when he's not about to sign an eight figure contract.
+/- cofirms Hu has been an exceptional fielding SS in his short stint in the majors. UZR said he's been below average. Who to believe???
The data size is too small for either, we are going to have to rely on minor league scouting reports until he has logged enough major league innings.
2006 (Red Sox)- 635 Abs
2007 (Astros)- 460 Abs
2008 (Astros) - 261 Abs)
He's going to turn 38 next August.
This is a different conversation, but defense (especially infield defense) still seems to be one of those things where we can trust the eyeballs of an experienced scout more than a metric. Different hitting metrics generally agree on whether a player is average or above. Depending on whose metric it is, defensive metrics can often completely contradict one another to the point of calling someone the best in baseball at his position and another calling the same player below average.
I admittedly know very little about the various defensive metrics, but range seems to be the only thing that is quantified better by a metric than with the eye. Scouts do a pretty good job looking at things like glove-to-hand transition, ball flight (Nomar always threw a backdoor slider to first), fluidity, and so on.
Not agreeing or disagreeing, but it is an area where I think scouts are consistently on target when predicting the effectiveness of a player as he makes the jump from the minors to the majors.
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